The Rockies’ twittersphere was abuzz this evening after Jake Etkin posted this article at Inside the Rockies on Matzek and his return to the Asheville rotation Wednesday evening. The crux of the Matzek story over the last month has not been the unconventional approach of sending a player outside the system to get help, but to send a prized (and expensive) prospect home to work with an instructor steeped in teachings that counter baseball conventional wisdom. While Etkin’s article was heavy in Marshall verbiage and technique, it’s important to try and scale this back and see just what you need to take out of it as it relates to Matzek and his new mechanics.

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With the 2011 MLB Draft less than 24 hours away, the Rockies appear to be the easiest team to forecast in the back half of the first round. Analysts from Keith Law to Baseball America to Frankie Piliere all agree on the same three names associated with the Rockies at pick #20, with the central theme being college bat.

While we cannot dismiss this information, especially with Baseball America’s uncanny ability to relay accurate scoop on late or supplemental first round picks, we still must take all projections with a grain of salt when a team is picking at the back half of the first round.

If you’re looking for an example for when a projection on a late pick like this was accurate, you don’t have to look past last season, when Baseball America hinted at the Rockies closing in on Kyle Parker days before the draft.  While this would suggest that the three names linked to Colorado will likely prove to be the correct outcome, we can also look at the 2008 Draft, when the Rockies surprised most pundits by selecting the sliding Christian Friedrich as an example of Colorado’s unpredictability.  

Will the Rockies lay in the weeds again this year and steal away a higher rated name sliding due to bonus demands, or are we already pretty certain which direction the Rockies will head in tomorrow’s first round?  We’ll attempt to answer this as well as breakdown a few potential prospects all the way through the middle rounds after the jump.

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The 2006 Tulsa Drillers were a minor league "destination" team. They were a group that scouts and prospect analysts hovered around and for good reason. On a given weekend, you could see starts by Ubaldo Jimenez or Juan Morillo, closed out by up-and-coming closer Manny Corpas. You were almost certain to see a future star out of the lineup of Ian Stewart, Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Macri, Joe Koshansky, Chris Iannetta, Seth Smith, or Joe Gaetti, backed up by quality role players in Jordan Czarniecki, Christian Colonel, and Alvin Colina. In the 2006 Tulsa Drillers, the Rockies saw its next wave of talent that could potentially lead them back to the post-season.

While the Rockies farm system has remained strong, it hasn't seen a prospect laden team like ‘06 Tulsa since. That should change in 2011, as the collective efforts of the Rockies' USA and Latin American scouts and player development team have delivered a collection of talent that looks to take its first step into full season ball together. Loaded with high-end headlining talent and potential breakout stars, the ‘11 Tourists could once again give the Rockies a team scouts and analysts strive to see on a nightly basis. Just who are the players that make up these two groups, as well as the high quality role players that should contribute to Asheville's overall success? I'll breakdown each category as I see them, with a note on the respective talents and expectations of each player for next season, starting with:

The Headline Talent:

These are the players heading into 2011 with the most significant buzz. You've probably already gained a significant amount of information on these four just by reading the daily Pebble Reports, but in case you're still in the dark...

Kyle Parker (RF)- There's still a chance that the Rockies start Parker in High A as they did Wheeler, but Asheville is closer to home and gives him a better chance to get his feet wet in professional baseball. One thing I think many people forget about Parker is that he's not a true college junior prospect, in that he met the season's played requirement before the age requirement by skipping his HS spring semester. For his level of experience (a three year starter in major D1 baseball), Parker is actually getting a one year head start age-wise. He'll play the entire 2011 season at 21 years old, so spending the year in Asheville keeps him on a typical development path for Rockies prospects.

From day one, I expect Parker to bat 3rd or 4th and be the everyday right fielder. This will be Parker's first real experience in a major wood bat league, so there's bound to be an adjustment period, particularly on inside pitches, as Alan Simpson of Perfect Game suggests. Parker will have the chance to show why some believe he has the best raw power in the system, and his ability to hit with power to the opposite field should play up at home games. As Seth Smith did, Parker will also begin his physical conversion from football strength over to baseball strength, which should help him loosen up and may help him improve his throwing. Parker will likely be the leader of this team and could be the guy they rally around. With a good early start, the Rockies could get aggressive and move him to Modesto at mid-season, with few major roadblocks ahead of him. If you haven't seen him yet, here you go.

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While Matzek has unofficially topped my prospect list since the second week in June, we had to wait until Monday to officially kick off this debate.  As improbable as this discussion may have seemed leading up to the draft, the conclusion should not be terribly difficult, as Matzek combines power offerings, moxy, command, and one of the smooth delivery into a package the Rockies haven’t seen in a pitching prospect.  Let’s look at a few reasons why Matzek should front your Purp list:

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No, I haven’t been living under a rock for the past week (or for this site, months).  I’m not under the influence; nobody’s slipped anything into my purple kool-aid…  I’m typing from a clear state of mind; Kyle Gibson just may be the most logical draft choice for our beloved Rockies tomorrow.  I think we must consider a few parameters before looking deeply at this Rockies draft:

1.         We have no reason to believe the Rockies’ draft budget isn’t at or below slot for each selection we have in the early rounds.

2.         With no notable changes in the Rockies’ player development group, we cannot expect the Rockies’ draft philosophy to change dramatically, or any at all.

3.         The Rockies’ talent pool at the A levels (specifically Low A) is substandard and could play a role in the type of players targeted early.

So how does any of this relate to a pitcher with a fractured forearm that Keith Law won’t even put in his first round mock?  Way more than you’d think.  Allow me to present my argument in the case for Kyle Gibson:

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When I started writing out posts on the upcoming moves for the off-season, I stressed two critical factors in the Rockies trying to maximize their performance with a limited roster:  Play better defense and get more (or luckier) out of your bullpen.  Not so surprisingly, these two factors often play a role on teams that win more than their run differential suggests they should.  In the coming bulletin points, we’ll see just how this trade did in attacking these goals and why I believe the Rockies made the deal with the right intentions.

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We’re less than a week away from introducing over thirty new players to the Rockies organization, some potentially critical to the future success of this team.  To highlight the importance of the draft, five players drafted last year made our Top 30 Purps list last time around, and all things considered, that class was not considered to be a rather strong group.  This puts the organization at a crossroads of sorts, as many low ceiling guys from last year’s draft populate these lists, it highlights a lack of high end talent being pumped into the organization through the American route.  Is this the draft that can help balance the talent profile, and can you find high end talent at the bottom of round one, and who the heck is this Odorizzi guy?  I hope to outline such questions over the next several days.  Can this draft save the franchise, or better yet, does it need to?...

Chapter One:  Mea Culpa Jake Odorizzi

The first thing I realized when constructing this post is that I haven’t given Odorizzi his fair shake at our first pick.  There are a lot of quick hits on Odorizzi that can scare you:  He’s very slender at 6’3 and 170 lbs., he doesn’t consistently push his fastball into the mid 90’s, and as MILB’s Mayo suggests, he may not have the mound presence of a frontliner.  High schoolers are a pretty big crapshoot, but it seems the best gambles are always the ones with MLB ready bodies (6’4 210 lbs.) and big fastballs (94 mph consistently).  Odorizzi just isn’t this guy.  Despite the height, I don’t believe that Odorizzi has the typical high school projection.  The hips are narrow, as are the shoulders.  There’s room to make it to 200 lbs. but any more won’t be of the athletic variety.

Yet how important is frame in this case?  One is a matter of adding enough strength to hold velocity longer and perhaps increase it.  To that regard, I think he has that type of growth potential.   What about durability?  Well, Odorizzi’s clean, fluid mechanics suggest that the health of his pitching arm won’t rest on the muscle upholding it but the less strain he places it under while pitching.  There are various YouTube videos of Odorizzi pitching, as well as one at ESPN, showing the mechanics of Jake’s delivery.  The importance here is that he lacks violence in his motion, while still pitching at a good arm slot and maintaining plus arm speed.  If I had a complaint, it would be that he doesn’t seem to follow through as much (shorter stride), which may hinder his velocity and deception.  However, you could also make the case that the shorter stride (not a short stride ala Tyson Ross), keeps the arm motion a little more fluid, he still finishes with his weight balanced above his plant foot and doesn’t seem to add any extra strain on his shoulder.

Okay, enough small mechanics talk, how about the stuff?  There’s really not a tremendous amount of information available on Odorizzi’s off-speed stuff, and I believe there’s only one video clip of his slider and one of his curveball on MILB.com’s draft reports.  When I went back and gave Odorizzi a fair shake at catching my interests, the first thing that caught my eye was the life on his fastball.  I’m a sucker for a good running, sinking heater (It’s why Aaron Crow’s my favorite ’08 draft pitcher) and apparently, so is Odorizzi, as this article suggests.  Baseball America’s report on Jake had his velocity improving into the 91-93 mph, up 2-3 ticks over last summer, which I consider a very positive sign, and various reports have him topping 95 mph, so the heat is there for a first round HS-er.  The ESPN clip on Odorizzi also shows plus arm side life on a fastball thrown almost over the top, and the ball explodes 2/3^rd of the way down.  The breaking pitches are intriguing on two counts.  The first is that both have plus potential.  Mayo’s video shows a sharp 1-7 break on the curveball.  Since it’s thrown almost over the top, it’s not likely to freeze batters as much as a curve with more of a "hiccup" in its break.  From what I can tell, the slider may just be a harder variation of the curve, similar to Taylor Buchholz.  Mayo worries about Odorizzi’s bat missing potential, and while he’s having no problem this spring, it could be a case of Odorizzi not developing and implementing his slider and four seam much in the summer circuit last year.  Bottom line, the repertoire is pretty extensive and promising, with four potentially plus pitches and a delivery that gives the pitches the perception of more life.
Bottom Line Comparison:  Homer Bailey

That’s certainly high praise, but let me put this in the right perspective.  Odorizzi’s build is similar to the Texas fireballer, and while he doesn’t have the same power, the life on his pitches is similar, and he has pretty good polish for a HS-er.  It’s hard to compare upside with a player who hasn’t even reached his yet, but Jake’s ceiling isn’t near Homer’s, but when you adjust Bailey’s down to its present level, they look like fairly solid comps.  Like Odorizzi, Bailey has questions about mound competitiveness, but both have potential to throw strikes with all of their pitches.  Basically, Odorizzi’s ceiling is likely in the region of Bailey’s most likely outcome.  I see Jake as a solid number two-three starter with a good power repertoire but not dominating strikeout totals.  For the 25^th pick, that isn’t all bad.  Bottom line for organization skeptics, Odorizzi already has fluid mechanics and strike throwing ability, which means there’s little for the Rockies to iron out.   After mixed/poor results with Roe, Jimenez, Morales, etc., that should be welcoming to most.

All told, everybody who’s anybody (or however that phrase goes) believes the Rockies will select Odorizzi, so why might as well get the introduction  out of the way.  Getting past my high school pitching concern, I’ve gone from skeptic to believer in three days.  Maybe I’m just drinking the kool aid, or maybe, just maybe, this kid’s simply a darn good gamble at the end of round one. 

Multiple sources are now saying that the Rockies have returned both Torrealba and Herges for the '08 season.  If you're a Post person, you'll like this link.  If the News is more your thing, try this one.  Also, hat tip to roxfan4life for breaking this on the Row.

On the Torrealba front, it appears the Rockies have won out, landing Torrealba for the initial offer they handed him at the onset of free agency.  I'm still not a big Torrealba fan, but this deal makes sense on several fronts.  First, it will allow the Rockies to be more comfortable opening the year with the young Latin pitchers in the rotation.  Second, at just 3.5 mil a year, the Rockies won't be crippled if Torrealba's offense drops in the tank and Iannetta takes over the job, either at some point in '08, or possibly '09.  The links also not most importantly, that Torrealba did not fail a physical with the Mets, and that instead the Mets balked on three years.  This removes concerns over the abrupt ending of the Mets courtship.  While Torrealba was not my personal first choice, I will say that for the price, the Rockies made the best possible move they could at the catcher position.

As for Herges, the Rockies again seem to have won out in the negotiations and landed him on a one year deal.  Herges was arguably the second most valuable reliever In the Rockies' pen this season, but at the same time, his success is heavily tied to an unrepeatable BABIP.  By only offering one year, the Rockies can look to see if he has any more lightning left in the bottle before he turns back into the pumpkin his career has largely been (yes, that's too many metaphors).  This isn't a significant commitment, but does reward Herges for his efforts and gives the bullpen another reliable veteran to mesh with what could be an influx of youngsters.

Based on the early reports, I believe O'Dowd succeeded with both moves and accurately pegged the value of both players while not over-extending the team's commitment to them.  However, it is important to note that while both moves are good moves, they do not make the team better, per say.  The Rockies don't need to be as concerned with being "as good" as they were last year (speaking of the 89 win regular season), but need to focus on still improving the roster to squeeze even more wins out of 162 games.  Herges and Torrealba plug holes they created by filing for free agency, but, obviously, they don't bring upgrades to other parts of the roster.

It's a great start, but there's still much work to be done if we want to continue watching this team into next October again.

In the past couple of Novembers, the first projections I tend to seek out for the upcoming season come from the Bill James Handbook.  I find this book to be a good prep book for the off-season, it's a quick resource for splits, line stats, defensive numbers, and also a basic projection for pitchers and hitters.  They don't seem to be as detailed as PECOTA or ZIPS, but since no projection system is perfect, it's a fun tool to assist in forecasting for '08.  

So this evening I thought we'd look at how the guys at Baseball Info Solutions see how a couple of our catcher suspects shape up for the coming year.  While the projections give games played, homers, etc. for guys, I will only include: batting average/ on base percentage/ slugging percentage, and then OPS.  I'm not a huge fan of OPS, but it is handy in this case, and most all of you understand it's use as a rough evaluation tool.  So let's start with the one we know the best:

Yorvit Torrealba

.251/.315/.388     .703

Yorvit had a career year of sorts, and BIS sees him as basically repeating his "successes" of last season.  However, his OPS is projected to be the lowest of the four primary targets.  I tend to find this ironic in that he's also likely to rake in the most money of the four this off-season.  Defense and personality make a difference, and his top rating is defensible.  Torrealba is an excellent backstop, capable of blocking most everything and has proven himself with a young pitching staff.  

While those traits are valuable, it's easy to place too much stock in them while ignoring other factors.  For one, the CS% was miserable, and it's possible he won't return to past heights.  Torrealba is no longer young, and in a physically demanding position, he has little time to properly heal his throwing shoulder while also building up strength to handle a larger load of games.  Age, injury history, and positional hazards are all concerns about his long term success at controlling the running game.  

That basically boils Torrealba down to a guy that works well with pitchers, blocks balls, but relies heavily on Coors to support his offense, may struggle to control the running game, and has an injury history that should give teams pause before handing over a big contract.  There's still value here, but for a team like Colorado, with a very limited budget, they simply cannot allow sentimentality to supersede good judgment.  Simply put, 7 million over two years is too much for this guy, now 15 million over three?...

Paul LoDuca

.283/.331/.395     .727

One of the biggest ironies of the off-season is the Mets inclination to improve on LoDuca with a younger, but less fancy version of LoDuca in Torrealba.  Keep in mind that park matters in these projections; BIS is assuming that all players will return to last year's teams in determining their `08 line. So LoDuca would get a bump from Coors on these numbers, while Torrealba would lose some should he head for Shea.  

Basically, we have the same player here as before.  Like Torrealba, LoDuca is not the most disciplined hitter, nor one blessed with tremendous gap power.  However LoDuca is more consistent in the average department, inflating the rest of his line.  Defensively, the similarities are more real.  Both are excellent at blocking balls in the dirt, are noted as good pitchers' catchers, and really struggle to control the running game.  Before you try and sell me on Torrealba's superior game calling skills, note that his catcher's ERA is almost identical to LoDuca's (and on top of this, this number tends to vary from year to year like ERA, which minimizes the value of game calling anyways).  

I also tend to believe that the risks associated with LoDuca are overstated.  Sure his age is a factor, but he doesn't appear to be significantly declining offensively, and we aren't talking about 2009 either.  If he can be had for double Yorvit's `07 contract, he'll be a good buy for Colorado, and may even represent an improvement at the position based on his superior offensive skills.

Jason Kendall

.275/.369/.335     .704

His edge over Torrealba in OPS is an insignificant .001 at first glance, but when you factor in Coors, it may become slightly more noticeable.  Kendall has one additional offensive tool that is intriguing, plate discipline.  Torrealba's power isn't so great that the drop in SLG from him to Kendall will make a difference, but Jason advantage in OBP could have more ramifications on adding runs over the course of the season.

However, there is a major red flag with Kendall.  The first is that he's already shown some evidence of bottoming out offensively, as he did in Oakland.  As an undersized catcher at age 34 and an offense built on patience and contact, if the batting skills erode, teams will just pound the strike zone, and the OBP will flee with the batting average.  He's at the point in his career that if it goes again, it may not come back this time, and after watching this happen to Finley, it could be even more concerning should it happen to the "everyday catcher."

Defensively, there isn't much to see here.  Kendall doesn't throw out base runners, but did have the best catcher's ERA of the four and proved durability by catching the most innings of the group by a large margin.  He's not a great backstop, but not terrible either.

Kendall's a high risk, moderate reward signing.  If the contact skills stay in tact, and he realizes a Coors bump, we could be talking about a .300/.390/.360 hitter that could be used at first, second, or the bottom of the order.  Yet, if the contact skills fade, he will be the worst player on this list, and may be a big drain on the Rockies' `08 hopes.  So long as the Rockies' employ a short leash with Kendall, there's some intrigue, but there's little middle ground here.

Michael Barrett

.262/.319/.424     .743

Note that of all the catcher's listed, Barrett's line stand the most to gain from shifting the projection out of Petco to Coors for half the games.  Barrett has the most upside on this list, and is my preferred free agent option.  I should also note that should the Padres offer Barrett arbitration, the Rockies won't pursue him (and Barrett likely would accept arbitration as the best way for him to get a big `08 pay day).

Barrett's season last year was bitten hard by the BABIP bug, and at 31, he's young enough to re-establish himself offensively.   None of the catcher's on this list can boast the same peak offensive season as Barrett posted in  an injury shortened 2006.  It would not be unsurprising if Barrett hit .300/.340/.500 in Coors next season and be one of the team's top offensive performers.

I'm not going to lie to you and tell you he isn't a bad defender, because he is.  However, I will tell you that most concerns are overblown.  Barrett is a poor backstop and has had problems in the past with handling power stuff.  He allowed three times as many passed balls as Torrealba, but don't blow this out of proportion.  If Torrealba allowed one passed  ball over a month's worth of games, Barrett would allow three passed balls over that same span.  Barrett is also poor at throwing out base runners, but even that number may have been slightly skewed by catching traditional green lights in Young and Maddux.  That doesn't excuse his CS%, but when the upside of these four is 19%, what does it matter.  For as many people that criticize Barrett for his squabbles last season, you can find plenty of baseball guys that vouch for Barrett's baseball aptitude, from Maddux last year, to Buck Martinez at the WBC (lauding Barrett for his work ethic, desire to learn, and already high perception of the game).  Again, Barrett's catcher's ERA is almost identical to both LoDuca and Torrealba, so if you think he's a poor game caller, it doesn't bare out in his staff's performance.

Again, let's be honest, he's a weak defensive catcher, and the weakest of the four.  Yet let's not blow this out of proportion to the point we are comparing him to a coach pitch catcher.  With the likely loss of Matsui to free agency and the insertion of an inferior player in his stead (I still see Stewart at second as highly doubtful, more likely Carroll/Q/Barmes/Nix), this team has to find a way to replace offense, and if he comes at a reduced rate, Barrett may actually be one of the better sticks on the market.  So long as the team finds a way to give Barrett time off when Jimenez is on the mound, and works Barrett in more as a bat off the bench when he's not catching, he could be the most valuable of the four by a wide margin.  He's not worth the risk if our draft pick is involved, and he can't be asked to go at it alone, but if you buy into BABIP, there is a significant amount of upside here.

So that wraps up the list of "most often associated with Colorado" catchers.  It's not a group of world beaters, but at the same time, it's not a group of significantly different players, and should each play exactly to there projections and defensive qualifications listed above, they may all end up with roughly the same overall value next season.  At that point, the best buy becomes the cheapest buy, and as tight as money appears to be (a topic for another day), that may be the best route for the club...

...yet there is this other guy out there.  His projection line looks like this:

.274/.370/.435     .805

That's a pretty significant improvement over the four above.  From what I can tell, he might be the cheapest of the four as well.  Again, this would be an upside play, and there is risk associated with this guy as well, but simply based on this projection, it would be worth looking into this mystery catcher as our `08 starter...

While the Rockies' magical run has captured the interest of Denver fans and media alike, we've still seen some off-season stories start to trickle in.  If you're like me, then you are probably anticipating the Rockies continuing this run into the World Series (why not?), but it also means that for the first time we won't have a month and a half to preview the off-season, but hopefully a mere sixteen days.  Thus, it might be good to get a head start with the some of the stories and underlying issues of our off-season while we have a couple of days to wait nervously until Game One of the NLCS.

For those of you that wish to stay in playoff mode, I've spared you the scrolling by moving the bulk of this story behind the jump.  

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With both players homering yesterday, I thought now would be as good a time as ever to bring this up:  when it comes to the young shortstops in the system, I'm a Nelson guy.

Hector Gomez, as rox girl points out, has received a crazy amount of recent press, and was rated one spot higher in Goldstein's Top Ten.  While I'm very excited to see where Gomez goes with his talent, for the time being, I'm picking Nelson ahead of Gomez for the time being, and will deliver my case with a few points:

-Nelson was considered one of if not the top high school hitter in the 2004 draft.

That's not to say Americans are better than international ball players, but it's more a statement of Nelson's pedigree and can explain the recent upswing in his talents.  In Goldstein's recent top ten, he talks about how things suddenly can "click" for toolsy players, where they start to add production to their athleticism and not turn back.  For Nelson, that looks as if this is the case in the second half of this year.

First half:  .260/.330/.389
Second half:  .314/.390/.607

From that standpoint, Nelson might be the organization's best offensive player in the second half of the year.  With that type of pop, Nelson is starting to add performance to his projection as a middle order hitter.

-Nelson has already passed the "McCormick Threshold" and improved his performance.

This may not be completely fair to Gomez, because he hasn't had the opportunity to prove himself outside of Asheville, but for Nelson doing it, he should still earn credit.  You could make the case that Nelson should be docked for not making gains in Asheville, but since prospects should have more emphasis placed on their performance at higher levels than the lower ones, and the most recent season compared to past ones, Nelson has redeemed himself this season.  

The concern with Gomez is that he not having near the success away from McCormick, and his current pop may be more park than skill.  Still, he's very young, and still projects well down the line.  I'm just willing to give more credit to the guy who has shown progress away from McCormick.

-Nelson has a more polished skill set.

Gomez' phenomenal raw tools have drawn all kinds of comparisons to the elite players of the league.  Yet, when you're this raw, these comparisons come more often.  Before we really know what Gomez can be, we need to start to see some refinement in his plate discipline.

Nelson has already begun to show a mature approach at the plate.  His walk rate is a healthy 10.1%, his K rate is an acceptable 17.2%, and he has improved both of those numbers from last year while at a higher level.  Because of these gains and their current levels, we already have a rough idea of the type of hitter Nelson will be, and where he can fit in the lineup.  That expectation is a hitter with solid contact skills, good patience, and above average pop for his likely positions.  Where Gomez has the chance to blow these numbers out of the water if he reaches some of the comparisons thrown his way, he could just as well fall short with his missing plate discipline.  Young players like Gomez can make big strides in this department, but for the time being, I'm siding with the safer bet to have a refined approach at the plate.

-Nelson is relatively close to the big leagues.

Though it's possible Nelson takes the minors step by step and makes his Rockies' debut in 2010, there are signs that his arrival could come much sooner.  For starters, if he has finally "clicked" in the second half, than he'll carry his big performance to the Double A level.  As soon as you establish yourself in AA, you're on the doorstep.  Should Nelson put up a line like .300/.380/.500 in Tulsa next season, it's entirely possible that he could be in Colorado next year.  He's already showing a refined offensive profile, so we should expect a good performance in Tulsa, and who knows from there.

Gomez, on the other hand, is just a teenager, and will need to prove he can hit away from McCormick, refine his plate discipline, and turn more power projection into power production.  I wouldn't be surprised if he accomplishes all these things in Modesto, but that's a pretty big leap and doesn't necessarily have to happen in High A.  

So in summation, I prefer to go with the guy that has a better chance of reaching his potential than the guy with the considerably higher ceiling.  The difference isn't great; if Nelson is position prospect number one, Gomez is one A.  Neither is going to be the next Rockies shortstop, and the positions they end up at could change these rankings.  Nelson seems like a good fit for second base, and Gomez' comparisons to Hanley Ramirez could look more apt once Ramirez makes his eventual shift to centerfield, as Gomez likely will in the next two seasons.  If there's a moral to this story, it's that the Rockies still have two very high ceiling talents coming down the pipeline despite graduating two on the left side of the infield over this year and next.  Blue chip position players don't stop with Tulo and Stewart, the future contributions of Nelson and Gomez (and Fowler) could make an already bright future even brighter.

Part two of the first installment of this series will focus on the lower levels of the system.  One note for the lower parts is that 2007 draftees will not qualify for mention since they already are not included in the Rockies' Top Prospect List according to Baseball America.  Instead, I'll focus on the draftees in the third installment.  Again, I'll try for just one player per category per level, but as you'll see with Asheville, sometimes it just isn't possible.  Also, I've combined both short season teams to just one short season level, since both teams are predominantly 2007 draftees.  Lastly, if this is the first you've seen of this series, here's the link so you can get a better understanding of the premise.

High A

Riser:  Daniel Carte
To be honest, picking someone out of Modesto that has really put himself on the prospect map was difficult.  The players that have taken great leaps forward were either top prospects to begin with, or prospects that had already crept onto the scene.  While a small few may move onto the BA list from this team, they'll likely head into the periphery instead of front and center.  That leads us to Daniel Carte, who looks as if he's finally cashing in on the power  potential the Rockies thought they saw on the Cape.  Carte's ISO has blossomed to .216 compared to .165 last season, and unlike several Nuts players, he's slugging at home just as much as the road.  He's also increased his batting average without increasing his contact rate...which leads us to the negatives.  Carte's K rate of 29% won't fly at higher levels, and his 2.5% walk rate will be heavily picked on in Double A.  What will he do when pitchers stop throwing strikes?  Carte's BABIP is a staggering .389 this year, and should that fall with his other rates staying at their current level, he will cease to be useful.  At the minimum, Carte has made himself interesting again.  Despite his leap in surface numbers, Carte has much to prove in Double A, and without a change in approach, 2007 could be a flash in the pan.

Sleeper:  Alan Johnson
It's really a toss up between Johnson, Durden, and Cedeno, since all have enough skills to be considered for higher prospect-dom, but have yet to put everything together, but Johnson wins because there's a point to be made with him.  Numbers-wise, Johnson's doing everything you want him to do; he's keeping the ball in the yard, keeping runs off the base paths by nature of the free pass, and is getting his share of strikeouts.  His peripherals have lead to an FIP of 3.61, roughly in line with his 3.29 ERA.  If this all came from a 21 year old with a live arm, we'd be really excited right now, but Johnson's "scouting profile" comes up short.  He's slight of build and isn't blessed with a big fastball.  His numbers in just 13 innings of Double A give us a brief glimpse at what's likely to happen to his numbers.  A drop in the walk rate is nice, but the K rate falls to a dangerous level for a guy without a big arm, and it's still possible he's just a really good organizational arm.  If there's one thing in Johnson's favor, and it's a big one, it's results.  If he just continues to produce, he'll carve out a major league career.  He hasn't had a bad minor league year, and if he keeps up his control act through Triple A, he could get looks as a number five/ spot starter.  As the Rockies are showing right now, these types of pitchers have value.  Just keep piling up grounders, and there will be a job available somewhere.

Low A and Short Season are inside...

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In this first installment of a two part (four segments) series, we're going to take a look at a couple of players that have made the leap into (or in some cases, back to) prospect status, while others here have done some good things to possibly warrant consideration down the road.  For the sake of uniformity, we'll describe a prospect as someone who made the Baseball America Top Thirty Rockies Prospects list this past year, so player today are ones that did not make THIS list (but may have made one in the past).  In the next installment, we'll use this list to note players that are falling down this list, failing to progress on this list, or likely dropping off the list entirely.  Today, though, is risers and sleepers at the higher levels.  A riser will be a player whose performance has improved to the point that he'll likely find himself profiled in next season Baseball America Prospect handbook, or in more meaningful terms, has worked his way into the Rockies' future plans.  The other category, the sleepers, will consist of players that have shown some solid tools or potential, but haven't put it all together yet to reach bonafide prospect status.  Still, most sleepers on this list has made some type of improvement in his game rather than stalling out or even declining.  I'll try to confine this to one player per category per level, but some levels simply deserve more notice...

Triple A

Riser:  Jayson Nix
This season has been more of a return to glory than a breakout year for Nix.  Always a solid defender capable of handling the glove at the major league level, his offensive has been surprising, and well documented by the likes of Jack Etkin.  Most important to me, though, is Jayson's numbers away from Security Services Field, where he's out-hitting his home numbers with a line of .313/.359/.520 in 179 AB's.  His physical stature isn't overly impressive, but he's solidly built for a second baseman and looks like he can hit for average power at the position.  His speed isn't elite, and he may not be more than a 15 base stealer in the majors, but he picks his spots well and runs at a solid success rate (78%).  His plate approach hasn't changed as much as he's just finding more success with the bat; the strikeout rate is acceptable (17%) as is the walk rate (8%) so long as he's slugging at a rate above average for his position.  I still have concerns about his ability to hit consistently, his numbers have improved without any change in his FB or GB rates, and he has a fairly high BABIP.  Still, the pop, defense, and athleticism are an intriguing package worth auditioning this September.  At 26 in two weeks, he's not going to experience much further growth, so it's now or never for Nix with the Rockies.  With the likes of Macri, Quintanilla, Herrera, and Wimberly all conceivably close to the bigs, the Rockies could give Nix the first run at next year's second base opening with plenty of fall back plans.  

Sleeper:  Joe Gaetti
Gaetti stands a good chance of reaching 20 home runs this season, three more than last season, despite not being used on an everyday basis.  Gaetti's AAA numbers are deceiving, as he's struggling on the road, but his offensive profile has been solid up to the AAA level, so I have few doubts he'll hit on the road in short time.  Gaetti has an uppercut swing that gets a little long and can lead to higher strikeout totals, but also leads to plenty of doubles and homers in the alleys.  He's shown proficiency at all three outfield positions, but doesn't stand out in any, and should he have to play everyday, he'd be best fit for left field.  Gaetti's age makes him a tough call as a prospect, but he has value to a major league club as a fourth or fifth outfielder that crushes lefties and can spell any outfielder for a stretch (sound familiar?).  A Jason Michaels type that doesn't currently have a role on the big league club, but could if the team had to move Spilborghs to full-time duty for some reason.

Double A

Riser:  Matt Macri

(Note, Macri has since been moved to Triple A)  Another player likely to find his way back into good graces, Macri could have been considered for the sleeper pick because it seems as if few have noticed his breakout.  On one hand, Macri has been old for AA, but on the other, he's not had the chance to prove competency thanks to a series of injuries.  This year, Macri has finally started to tap into his power potential, upping his FB% (until an august dip)  and improving his ISO to .200+.  That type of power will play anywhere left of first base in the infield, but would look really good at second.  Macri would be on the tall side for a second baseman, and his actions have looked a little mechanical this season., but he's long had the range to handle short, and he could cut down on his throwing miscues with a shorter distance (though he has plenty of arm strength for short or third).  Macri has a short compact stroke with a slight uppercut, so while he's squared up more balls this season, his strikeout rate has been a little high (possibly the result of chasing pitches out of the zone).  Macri's best role may come as an infield Spilborghs, filling in at all four infield spots with good pop and average defense.  He's a cross between Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu, ironic in that he could reach the majors in the same fashion as Uggla unless the Rockies make room for Macri on the 40 man roster soon.

Sleeper:  Steven Register
Register has always seemed on the cusp of making "the list," but thanks to superior pitchers and his own inconsistencies, he's failed to make a dent in the Handbook.  Moved to the bullpen this season because he was too hittable as a starter, batters are still finding some success with him in the pen, but he's been able to up the velocity on his fastball while adding some additional strikeouts (7.41 K/9).  Register sits solidly at 93 mph as a reliever, with average life, but he hides the ball well in his delivery.  The calling card is still his sharp slider, but it doesn't miss as many bats as you'd like in a late inning reliever, and is instead used to get ground outs ( 51%).  Though I was in attendance for one of his memorable blown saves off a homer to left center, Register has cut his homer rate by two thirds, down to roughly .5/9 with only three surrendered this season.  The big question with Register rests with his BABIP, which is up over .350 this season.  In the majors, we could just chalk this up to poor luck, but it isn't that easy in the minors.  It could just be that Register is hittable, and may not be able to take his act to the big show.  It's doubtful AAA will help uncover this truth, but if Register can correct his BABIP, he has upside as a middle reliever capable of getting key grounders with good command (3.00 K/BB) and a strikeout potential.  Think Brad Hennessey.

Nothing like a little hyperbole to catch your attention, but the gap between exaggeration and reality seems to be getting shorter by each 95 mph heater Tulo rockets to first base.  I was just going through my standard sites this evening, when I came across a link to an update on my favorite defensive metric: Plus/Minus system developed by John Dewan at Baseball Info Solutions.

For some background, the P/M system was laid out in Dewan's 2006 book, The Fielding Bible , which you can find at ACTA's website.  The easiest way to describe it is comparing it to the gymnastics scoring system.  In P/M, every field-able ball is given a degree of difficulty.  If a shortstop fields a moderate speed grounder, it gives him plus points, but only at the amount prescribed to that play.  Likewise, if he fields a ball deep in the third base hole, he gets more plus points than the routine play was worth because of higher degree of difficulty.  Consequently, if you fail to record an out on a field-able ball, you lose points, and that doesn't mean errors per say, that includes balls fielders don't get to, but other players at their position do.  Derek Jeter often scores poorly in this metric because he's not the greatest fielder on balls hit directly at him.  If you are more Rockies-centric, think of a player like Atkins, who doesn't have too much trouble with the routine play, but ask him to field a ball to either side of him and you might be disappointed.  Because of this, Atkins would struggle to stay on the plus side of the P/M system.

For this system to work, it requires all games to be charted, and hits to be graphed in terms of speed, distance and type.  In a way, this is the perfect combination of stats and live action, since the numbers are based off basically a graph of the batted balls.  It also requires a large set of data that has distinguished which hits are more difficult to field, and which should be routine.

If that is at all confusing, just understand this:  Troy Tulowitzki is the highest scoring shortstop in baseball.  With a score of +22, he's five points higher than the next closest and perennial favorite Adam Everett.  He's a whopping 43 points better than Jeter, who's listed at -21 at the end of the story.  If you believe in the fielding spectrum, which suggests that shortstop is the most difficult position in baseball, then you could make the argument that the best defensive shortstop is the game's best defense player, and according to P/M, that player is Troy Tulowitzki.

A couple other Rockies make the top of the list.  Kaz Matsui ties for fifth at second base at +8, and also giving the Rockies the best keystone combo in baseball, defensively.  It's for his defense and home hitting that makes Matsui worth pursuing in the off-season.  Matt Holliday is a bit of a surprise as the second best left fielder in baseball (until you start to think of the other "athletes" that play the position around the league), but he has made improvements with his range.  Worst defender in baseball?  Probably the best hitting shortstop, Hanley Ramirez, outdoing Jeter's shortcomings by three additional negative points.

Of course, you didn't need a statistical tool to tell you what your eyes can plainly see.  I don't think the league has grasped just how special this guy is.  It's not often you can get the best defensive shortstop in baseball AND a guy that could project to a .300 AVG and 25-30 HR's.  So next time you're in the middle of that water cooler discussion about the best defensive players in baseball, impress your friends with your knowledge of plus/minus and how it leads to Troy's superiority to the league.  And if you happen to carry a gold glove vote, don't be the guy that overlooks this piece of glaring evidence:  Troy Tulowitzki is the best defender in baseball.  

After an extended hiatus thanks to a Rockies vacation from winning followed by a vacation of my own, I give you the second installment of the Baseball Deals series.  As long as the team hovers around contention for the next two weeks, I may step up the writing of these, but if things fall apart on this road trip, we'll switch gears and start discussing parts to acquire for 2008 and beyond.  Nonetheless, the hunt for starting pitching continues today with a recently familiar face in Chris Capuano.

Capuano was not even on the list of players I had planned to do, and the second player (a current young-ish Cincinnati pitcher) should be up in a few days, but a couple of things have occurred for us to at least take notice of this situation.  While the early origins of this story may have started with Friday's Game Thread, the true reason for the story comes from this story and comments at another wonderful SBN blog, Brew Crew Ball.  If you watched Friday's game and read the story, then you may think we're just wasting our time, but let's look a little further...

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As the Rockies look to once again enter the All Star break treading water above the .500 level, it is more important now to both the players and the fans a sign that the organization is committed to giving them the best opportunity to competing for a playoff spot.  However, the front office must also be cognizant of the future of the system and not attempt the jeopardize the future by making a frivolous attempt to reach a difficult goal.  This team doesn't need to make the big splashes to prove anything, as they will only be deemed failures if the team comes up short In the playoff run anyways, yet O'Dowd can make a handful of "baseball" moves that not only improve the current product, but also produce in the current window of years this club is operating in.  In essence, the club can build for next year while also showing signs of attempting to win in the now.

The follow is the first in a series of stories that will look at various candidates that meet the "baseball move" criteria.  Some will be buy lows, others calculated gambles, and not all will be ultimately recommended actions, but the point is to get the discussion rolling on how the team can better prepare itself to compete over a number of years.  Lastly, the proposed players and deals could potentially be made with little damage to the farm system and should not leave the club with lasting value should bigger chips be dealt.  So without further ado, our first subject...

While the media frenzy circles around Mark Buehrle as the "pitcher to get" this trade season thanks to a generous BABIP and a rebound in some peripherals, there are a few pitchers with similar traits to Buehrle that could have potentially as big an impact.  Zach Duke could be considered the poor man's Buehrle (it just so happens that Mark is ranked fifth on Duke's PECOTA comparables list).  Duke, however, isn't without his flaws, which we'll get into.

What makes Duke the most appealing is his propensity to get ground balls.  Duke's current GB% of 51.7 is right in line with his brief career numbers, and is back up by his stuff.  I watched Duke's last start both on Advanced Gameday and MLB.TV, and his fastball is truly mislabeled.  Though the velocity was still between 86-90, he was getting seven inches of "break" on the pitch, three more than what Cook was roughly averaging in his last start.  Beyond just the sink on the pitch, Duke was consistently keeping the ball low in the zone, and displayed excellent feel for the pitch.  

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In just a matter of three hours today, two reporters close to the team expressed concern over the Rockies' "ace" getting back on track; Harding in his notes column, and Renck on XM Radio's Baseball Beat.  Such concerns haven't escaped these boards either, as more than a few have expressed some mild concerns over Aaron Cook's recent outings at home.

If you don't want to read a drawn out or boring (to some) explanation, I'll cut to the conclusion right here:  Relax, this is the same Aaron Cook of 2006, and with a few very slight corrections in his command and some bigger ones in luck, he'll be pitching more to expectations in short time.  If you care to know why, just keep reading...

For starters, Aaron Cook doesn't have the numbers to carry the "ace" label very well, but that doesn't mean he isn't without value.  Cook doesn't have the K's you'd expect of a real "ace" in the Beckett mold, but he does a pretty good job of limiting walks and keeping the ball on the ground.  Because Cook only strikes out 3.01 batters per nine, he allows quite a few balls in play.  When he struggles, it's most often because all those grounders aren't finding gloves, and when sprinkled with the occasional line drive, or even the rare homer, he'll give up a couple runs.  Yet, because his GB% is so high, when Cook is off, he's merely frustrating, and not necessarily bad.

So what's the difference this year?  Nothing really.  His GB% is a staggering 57.1%, down only .7% from last year.  The K rate is down and the walk rate is up, but neither is beyond a mild fluctuation that comes with a new sample.  Basically, to get these rates back in line with last year, it would take an extra K and one less BB ever game or two.  These have caused his K/BB rate tighten, but it was never good in the first place, so why worry about it now?  It isn't extra homers, as both the HR/FB% and HR/9 are an eyelash better than last year.  Luck through BABIP?  Nope, it has gotten better, but within reason.  To date, Aaron Cook's numbers are hardly different from last year's numbers.  Even if you quibble with the K's and BB's, it would take very modest improvements to bring them back to last year's levels.

What is he doing different at home than?  HE may not be the problem.  Fan Graphs provide excellent visuals to break this down.  If you look at the graphs for K/9, BB/9 and HR/9, you'll see that he's either repeating a trend, declining but within reason, or improving.  He's not pitching that much different at home than he has in the past.  So where's the problem?  The biggest issue with his home numbers may come from the pitchers that follow him.  When Cook leaves runners on while on the road, the relievers behind him have slammed the door on runners over 80% of the time.  At home, they've been much more generous, stranding only about 55%, a difference close to 30% in strand rate depending on the park.  I don't know how many runs this has amounted to, but when you look at Cook's expected ERA, or FIP at around 4.62, these runners allowed to score at home could be the reason Cook's ERA is higher beyond the general inflation felt by pitchers while at Coors.  

In summation, Cook's last outing wasn't great, but was an outlier to his season.  There isn't much he needs to do to regain his form at home.  If the Rockies want to see Cook's numbers pick up at Coors, perhaps they should re-examine who they have following his exits.  Improve the relief immediately following Cook, and the numbers will follow.

These are typically fun...

I have nothing really to say other than to leave this as a venue for everyone to discuss all things NCAA Baseball, from regionals to draft, etc.

-The Pokes won, so my real school gets a temporary boost before they run into the buzzsaw we call the Razorbacks.

-My real rooting interest, ORU, was upended by knepster's Cats.  If you read this knepster, I want to make a friendly wager for game two (we know you'll lose to WSU and we'll top UNO) so long as ORU saves Hefner for game three.  Maybe a sig entry type wager...

-In random draft news, I'm watching Duke Walker of Arkansas for the third time now, and am crossing my fingers we'll have a shot at him in round three.  He needs to sharpen the curveball, but he just reached back and blew 95 MPH past a hitter in a RISP situation.  6'7, throws downhill, plus fastball...

-Lastly, my bracket has North Carolina over...Arizona State.  Sorry RFTN, I just couldn't pull the trigger on Vandy...

While the first round brings even greater excitement this season with the advent of a televised first round, the real significance for Rockies' fans lies in the middle rounds, where Bill Schmidt and crew have been phenomenal at unearthing both stars and quality role players, all the while supplementing the organization with quality players at every level of the system.  While the cupboard isn't bare, the Rockies could afford to do a little shopping in the middle rounds once again to stock some shelves that are beginning to get a little thin.  The following segments will look at these organizational areas of need and how the Rockies may attempt to address them.  We'll start in the area that the Rockies may be most thin...

Toolsy Outfielders
Though not as big a problem at the lowest of levels in the system, the bulk of the outfielders in the organization best profile as left fielders or fourth outfield types.  From Seth Smith and Matt Miller up high, to Daniel Carte and Cole Garner at "lower" levels, the outfielders in full season have a solid track record offensively, but may lack the complete defensive package to best profile as a corner in spacious Coors, nor do any of them hit well enough to suggest future starter-dom at this point.  Centerfield looks even worse, as only the slow starting Dexter Fowler has more than one or two tools, and he now has some questions to answer about his contact rate before we consider him a sure-fire major leaguer.

This hole may have an in-house solution.  Infielders like Chris Nelson and Hector Gomez could move to the outfield in deference to the likes of Tulowitzki and Herrera.  The Rockies also have second round pick David Christensen ready to take another crack at short season ball, and he oozes right field tools.  Still, this leaves the system a little short in being sufficient in this department.

As for the first round, few if any outfielders are "worthy" of the eighth selection, and after the likes of Corey Brown and Julio Borbon, the draft is pretty thin in toolsy outfielders.  Still, there are a few "reaches" or upside gambles the Rockies could take in the early rounds:

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The Atkins Slump

Much has been made of Atkins season long funk, ranging from a problem with his swing, plate approach, and just plain unluckiness.  Luck, or lack thereof, seems to be the current belief, as the "hit it right at them" card has been played on many occasions, but I'm not sure it is that simple.

Luck, as it relates to numbers, starts with BABIP, or the percentage of balls put in play that land for hits, and this clearly has not been in Atkins' favor.  Prior to Tuesday's game, Atkins' BABIP was .248, where the league average is close to .300 for the year.  This would back the theory that Atkins has hit too many directly at defenders, yet this still may be a poor read into Atkins' troubles or expectations.  In his banner last season, Atkins' BABIP was .340, up from .315 from his rookie year.  That currently makes three very distinct BABIP's for his career, one very low, one very high, and one moderate (around what one would expect for a hitter with half his games in Coors).  This doesn't make Atkins unique, as most hitters suffer wild fluctuations, but many of your stars will consistently keep this number high (see Matt Holliday).  In a better year, I think we could expect a BABIP for Atkins close to his .315 from his rookie season, which is short of expectations for many, but such is the folly of overvaluing one season.

I'd like for that to be it, but we're far from done in crunching the numbers.  While we can all agree that Atkins has hit too many balls at or in close vicinity of defenders, where I disagree is in the nature of the batted balls.  Atkins hit types are tending in the wrong direction.  For starters, his line drive rate has dropped from 22% in '06, to 18.9% in '07, which isn't terribly bad, but stay with me.  What is hurting Atkins is his increase in flies, specifically, weak flies.  Someone in a game thread the other day suggest that Garrett seems to be hitting more infield flies than ever, and looking at his infield fly percentage this is true, as it has climbed from 4.6% of balls in play to 7.7%.  For a guy with little to no speed, having your rate trend from high GB% to higher FB% is a good thing, but when a good chunk of those flies are in the infield, you won't be increasing your homer rate on flies.  Subsequently, the percentage of fly balls that leave the yard for Garrett has decreased from 13.2% to 3.8%.  In pitchers this number can fluctuate, but in your better hitters it doesn't vary by this wide a degree, so this also suggests that Atkins is not making contact with authority.  When you combine the drop in line drives with the increase in weak flies, you get a plummeting ISO (SLG-BA, a pure look at a player's extra base power), and Atkins has been cut in half, from .228 last year to .113 this year, far below what should be expected of a hitter in a run producing spot in the order.

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In Baseball America's Florida Rundwon for the 2007 Draft, they discuss the last DFE's and give a nice mention of new "Rockie" Scott Robinson, who has signed for 105,000.  If you have a Baseball America subscription, you can read more about it here.

The Okaloosa-Walton JC baseball site isn't the greatest with its statistics, so if my simple math is right, he hit .366 with 12 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, and 11 SB.  Baseball America considers him a plus runner with plus power potential, and at 6'0 180 lbs., there could be some projection to his build.  

Coming into the draft, I believe one of our main focuses should be on toolsy outfielders, even those with high risk.  Signing DFE's like Robinson could help the cause.  I would expect him to join fellow late signees/DFE's Lowe and Murry in Casper.

According to the Drillers Pre-Game radio broadcast, Darren Clarke has been called up to Colorado from Double A, the first this type since Tulowitzki last year.  I have yet to find confirmation on this online, so I cannot tell you whose spot he has taken on the 25 man roster, but can tell you that Clarke's Double A spot has been taken by Mike DeJean, working back from arm surgery.

I had the privilege of seeing Clarke's last Double A outing Tuesday night, and you can get my extended thoughts in the Wednesday Pebble Report.  If you're more of a Cliff Notes person:  He's very tall.  He throws very hard.  His slider breaks a lot.  He strikes out a lot of guys.  He throws strikes...

Clarke cracked the Rockies' Baseball America Top 30 last year, and was named to the Cal League's version of an All Star game.  He's been on the disable list for most of the year, and only has 6.1 innings above High A ball for his career, but he has polished rates for both levels and his stuff should make the jump easier.  Hopefully he becomes the third quality youngster in the Rockies' pen quickly.

So again, no official link to confirm this with yet, so please keep checking back with this story to find who the exiled player may be.

I heard on a good source that Zack Murry has signed with the Rockies today.  The rumor is unconfirmed, so we could get official news later this week.  I just got in, so I haven't search for confirmation yet, but if I find a link, I'll surely post it.

I had the opportunity to see Murry play this year.  Murry is a good sized shortstop that may outgrow the position.  He looked average defensively with a strong arm and solid range, but only an adequate glove.  Offensively, Murry had a quick stroke from the left side.  He keeps the barrel on a level plane through the zone and currently sprays linedrives from gap to gap, with the chance to add power as he develops.  His stolen base numbers (30/33) realy stood out to me, and I may have underrated his athleticism.  You can check out Murry's outstanding freshman numbers at Neosho here.

So again, I can't confirm this yet, but will say I'm fairly confident of its accuracy.  If this is the case, this further bolsters the wealth of infield talent in the organization.  It will be interesting to see where Murry fits with Lowe on a similar development level.  He has the size and arm strength to handle third.  He may not yet be a Top 30 Purp, but he's one to pay attention to in the coming months.

Update [2007-5-15 22:47:23 by Russ]: Neosho's baseball page confirms this.

David's Take

The next player in our draft series may be the polar opposite of Kyle Russell.  Julio Borbon might be the only legitimate centerfield prospect at the top of the draft.  A Dominican Republic native, Borbon had a big freshman season to catch scouts' attention, hitting .350 for the year.  His sophomore season was an even better encore, as Borbon upped his average while only striking out fifteen times over 235 at bats, good for a rate of 15.7 at bats per K!  It was his time on Team USA, however, that put Borbon's stock in the top half of round one.  Here, Borbon showed prowess with the wood bat, hitting .364 while leading the team in hits, triples and stolen bases (15).  Most impressively, Borbon showed pop for the first time, clubbing four homers over the 31 game summer tour.

Many scouts were anxious to see if the power would carry over this year.  Scott Ebert notes that some scouts expect Borbon to approach twenty homers annually as a big leaguer.  Far from just a slap hitter, Borbon is an ideal combination of size (6'1 190), speed, and extra base power.  Borbon's speed also plays up his defense, as some scouts believe he could be a Gold Glove winner in the pros.  Considered a quality leadoff candidate, Borbon doesn't have a great walk rate, but the strike out rate and high averages suggest that he hasn't had to refine this skill in college.  His swing appears to be well suited for the pro game, as his power numbers and average improved with the wood bat on Team USA.  

Unfortunately for Borbon, his junior year has been marred by an injury he is just now getting over.  His average has slowly risen, up to .304, and he's slugging .500 this year, with four triples and two homers.  His stolen base attempts are down this year, likely attributable to his leg injury.  He's still not striking out much, only 11 times in 102 ABs, and was only responsible for one of David Price's 14 K's in their series two weekends ago.    

When you go after Borbon, you are buying into his projection.  Borbon's junior season deserves a mulligan for the injury, and his numbers from his junior year and summer season are just too good to ignore.  Borbon displayed he could be patient if need be, walking in 15% of his Team USA plate appearances.  To date, contact has come too easy for him to further develop this skill.  His speed is also evident in his junior year, with 26 steals in 34 attempts.  If the power keeps coming, he'll have all the tools you look for in a centerfielder.  His game is very raw, and he may be a late bloomer, but with the success of many high contact speedsters with good power, ala Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez, make Borbon's skill set more intriguing.  It's way too early to give him that high of praise, but his upside is rare for a college pick.

Colorado continues to struggle with finding centerfielders, and only have one pure centerfielder in the minors.  As much ground as Colorado outfielders are required to cover, it makes sense to value hitters that have centerfield capabilities.  If either Borbon or Fowler developed enough pop for a corner position, the Rockies would have the perfect blend of speed, defense, and offense to play in their ballpark.  At the least, Colorado has got to get more athletic with their outfield prospects.  Borbon may take longer than most college prospects, and could start as low as Casper, but his Team USA season suggests a budding star, and with the Rockies lacking depth in center, the two could be a good match.  Despite his injury and struggles upon returning, Baseball America has not softened their stance on his prospects in the top half of round one.

Russ' Response

I'm not going to try and argue against Borbon. He's quite high on my personal draft list for the Rockies (higher than the two we've already debated) and you might have already guessed that after I profiled him earlier in the year. The only problem I have with him is his arm strength for center field, but there are too many positives with him that that particular weakness can be overlooked.

David's Last Take

Very well, according to Baseball America's mid season draft rankings, Borbon should be taken within the first 10-12 picks, so he likely will be on the board when the Rockies pick.  Borbon may be pushed slow, though recent history suggests that Borbon, a three year college starter, could play full season ball upon signing, likely in Asheville in deference to Fowler.  He has all the tools to be a successful major leaguer, but to be a star, the plate patience and power will have to continue to improve, with his bat control and athleticism, I'm not going to be one to bet against him.

The next player we'll take a look at is another projectable college player, though size, and not youth is the focus here.  At 6'4" and 175 lbs. Ross Detwiler's slender frame offers plenty of projectability despite already solid present stuff.  A left-handed pitcher, Detwiler's long frame plays up a fastball that sits between 90-92 mph, and can run up to 94 mph, as noted by this scout's take at Baseball America.  Along with good velocity for a left-hander, Detwiler also flashes a big breaking curveball and a change-up that is at least usable, and according to some, is still developing.  Thus far, Detwiler has had no problem striking out college hitters, with 70 strikeouts in just 57.3 innings, good for a strikeout rate of 11 per 9.  As with most young left-handers with good strikeout potential, Detwiler has some command issues, with 25 walks, a rate of 3.9 per 9.  Outside some struggles with control, Detwiler has been close to unhittable, surrendering only 34 hits for a rate of 5.3 hits per 9.  OF those few balls put in play, even fewer do damage, as he's only surrendered 5 doubles and just 2 homers, a rate (again) of .31 per 9 (in comparison, Aaron Cook surrendered .71 per 9).  

Though we don't have present groundball percentages (to my knowledge) for Detwiler, the home run rate suggests he does enough to keep balls in the field of play, and the dearth of extra base hits would support a belief that he likes the ball on the ground.  Detwiler's projectability is supported by Patrick Ebert's report at Brewerfan.net.  Ebert currently ranks Detwiler 12th, which puts him within range of justifying his selection here.  Baseball America recently slotted him behind three other lefties, though two, Price and Moskos, could be gone by the time Colorado selects based on rankings, and the third, Savery, has had velocity questions early this year, and I think his hitting ability has some overrating his pitching ability.  Detwiler may lack the big time exposure of Savery and Price, but not the arm, and he spent last summer on Team USA, where Baseball America ranked him the ninth best prospect on the team (seventh draft eligible).

As far as big league projectability, Detwiler could be a similar pitcher to Marlin's slender left-hander Scott Olsen, who has a long frame, plus fastball, and occasionally dominate breaking pitch (in his case a slider) to succeed without an extended repertoire.  Like Olsen, Detwiler will need time to fill out his frame, and adjust his mechanics accordingly.  Because of this, Detwiler likely cannot be pushed like Reynolds, and likely would start under a limited pitch count in Asheville.  Though the Rockies are already stocked with high upside talent, most have reached a threshold where they must start to show major improvements in command or be subject to relief duty.  In addition, after Chaz Roe in high A, there may not be another arm in the low minors that can match the stuff, projectability, and present ability of Ross Detwiler.

Rox Girl, your thoughts?

Rox Girl's Take

First, I will say that Detwiler is the type of pitcher that I could get behind easily if Bill Schmidt thinks he's worthy of the pick. As the Brewerfan profile David links points out, there's some inconsistency with his delivery, but he's got the two quality pitches in his curve and fastball and has a developing change-up. There are some points of hesitation for me, however, in that his control is shaky at this level -he's allowed 28 baserunners via HBP or walk in just over 57 innings-  indicating that he could still be too much of a project for the eighth selection with his lack of refinement. Even Detwiler himself recognizes his inconsistent control holds him back as the linked interview with Royals Corner indicates:

That said, this recognition of his own weakness is a plus in make-up. Still, a pitcher of this type will typically not be a safe pick given the gap between our first selection and our second, and I'd rather have more confidence that our selection will at least contribute at the MLB level given what we will wind up paying. Again, if Bill Schmidt and our scouts say that we can bring him close to his potential, then I'll buy it, but right now I'm pretty skeptical. Given the work that he needs, I think Asheville might be pushing too far, and would rather see him start at Tri-City. I'd want him to get comfortable with the system, and a pitcher friendly park might be better for him than the hell that McCormick Field could be on left handers. I'd also like to see if he could get a fourth pitch, maybe a different fastball or a slider to have one more option to draw on to keep hitters off balance, and the Northwest League would be better suited to that.  

Russ' Whatever You Want to Call It

In Keith Law's latest installment (4/4) of top prospects for the upcoming draft, Detwiler (11th overall) is the second-highest rated lefty in the draft (behind Price), the third highest college pitcher and the sixth best pitcher available. So certainly there is a consensus out there that Detwiler is a highly sought-after talent and one I would take as a top 10 pick.

However, for the sake of making an argument I'll make one. Aside from his control issues, I want to question his level of playing competition in college. There are times when you shouldn't get caught up in what league the guy is from, and this is certainly one of those times, but, again, I'll continue with this train of thought. He plays in the Missouri Valley Conference and it is a league that has turned out quite a number of bit players in the big league, including our own Clint Barmes in the past decade. The only major pitchers to come out of the MVC recently to the best of my research have been Darren Dreifort, who falls into the injury category, and Mike Pelfrey, both from Wichita State. Pelfrey has all the makings of a great pitcher but we'll have to wait it out with him. In the non-conference games against Arkansas and Missouri he pitched in neither as they were mid-week games. He's been able to perform well against mediocre or worse teams the past three seasons (but that's why there are summer leagues and scouts going out to watch these guys pitch).

If Detwiler finds himself a top 18 selection in this draft, he'll be the highest drafted Missouri State Bear in school history only one year after Brett Sinkbeil set that mark (at 19).

David's Final Take

It's hard to contend with the command issues brought up by Rox Girl, but both Goldstein and Baseball America staffers have suggested that lefties generally take longer to correct command flaws, and they could be a result of his long loose frame having yet to be filled out.  As for his level of competition, it's a fair question, but Detwiler was reported by Baseball America as being dominant in his outings with Team USA, both in international competition and inter-squad games, so he has some experience against prime hitters, though not at the same level of a Price or Moskos.  He's certainly not a safe pick, but we haven't gambled in a while, and Detwiler could be a special pitcher around the top of a home grown rotation.

As Rox Girl referenced in the Morning Rockpile, we will soon be kicking off a new draft series, as we are less than two months away from adding some exciting new talent to the organization.  To give readers an idea of the type and names of players Colorado could consider, we are starting this draft roundtable to debate the qualities and concerns of the 2007 draft candidates.  These stories, to be updated every Monday and Thursday, will focus on players that likely are to be available to the Rockies in the first round.

For the format, one of the Purple Row "staffers" will bring a name to the table they'd like considered for the first pick.  After the merits of the player have been presented, the rest will get to pick at every plus and minus before the original presenter gets the final word.  After each player has thoroughly been analyze, we'll place them on the big board, which at its completion should rank every likely draft candidate in order of preference by the Row community.

To better illustrate this new series, here's a dressed down mock up of a player Rockies' fans shouldn't be expecting:  

This past weekend was not the most ideal time to start playing baseball, from the rain, freezing rain, snow, and occasionally freezing temperatures.  Nevertheless, several young Rockies' prospects faired pretty well over the opening stretch of games, though it wasn't always evident in the box score.  Like last season, after each series of Driller games I attend, I plan on giving you my player by player breakdown, focusing primarily on those that could make an impact on the big league club.  Caveats do apply, since this is just a handful of games, and a player can drastically change course over the long season, so I'll try and focus less on the results, and more on what may cause them to either stay on track, make improvements, or prove their hot start a fluke.  So without further introduction, I'll start with the hottest current Driller...

GREG REYNOLDS
-  When talking about Reynolds hot start, it's important to consider both his snow shortened three inning outing, and his fabulous official "debut" today.  As advertised, Reynolds is a tall imposing figure on the mound, who fills in his 6'7 frame well with a "basketball" build.  His athleticism is noted in his delivery.  The mechanics are very crisp and for his height, he does an outstanding job of repeating the delivery.  The arm motion is over the top and shows no noticeable signs of potential injury (pitchers rarely do, but it's important to notice there's no whip motion or recoil, etc.).  If there's a downside to his mechanics, it's that there's no noticeable deception to the delivery, so it's possible professional hitters will be able to pick up his pitches better, but he is aided by his high arm slot on a 6'7 frame, giving hitters little time as is, and adding "heaviness" to his pitches.

Stuff-wise, Reynolds was 88-92 with his two seam fastball, and as yesterday's game entered the middle innings, he was 94 with the four seam on one scout's gun.  He flashed a solid change and a curveball with solid but not spectacular bite.  The two seam has good boaring action, it isn't a late sinker like Webb or Cook, but thrown from his arm slot, the pitch is that much tougher to lift.  When it's on for him, especially Thursday night, balls hit on the ground stayed on the ground, and were not of the mis-struck variety.  The pitch does move in out right handers, and he was able to break a bat or two Friday night.  

What makes Reynolds' stuff so tough on hitters is his control and understanding of pitching.  Early in the at bats, Reynolds almost exclusively threw his sinker, keeping it on the bottom half.  Because of his command and predictable movement on the pitch, it was most always in the strike zone, and when teams like San Antonio often take the first pitch, he puts hitters in the hole.  Really, it did not seem like he threw much more than the two seam the first time through the order.  The second time through yesterday, it really looked like he started to pitch.  Here he brought more curveballs, and would throw it at any time in the count (one hitter received three straight to start the at bat).  The curveball isn't a big sweeping curve, or a sharp power pitch, but it breaks on two planes, and again, with his command, can put it in any part of the strike zone.  The curve, however, was not the strike out pitch, a distinction belonging to his four seam.  The four seam is fairly straight, but from his arm angle, it appears hard to lift.  The velocity on the pitch is solid at 94, but he really plays it up with location and changing hitters eye levels.  When a hitter has seen nothing but two seams low in the zone, he's going to have a really hard time catching up to 94 MPH upstairs, and that's exactly how Reynolds pitched to several batters in the middle innings.   It might have been this part that made him so impressive, being able to alter his pitching strategy to continually keep hitters guessing throughout his outing.  It probably didn't hurt that his stuff seemed to have more life the deeper he worked into the game.

If he had a problem, it was that the sinker had good but not great life, and lacked late movement.  Thus, when a hitter squared one up, he would hit a solid line drive that luckily found Drillers' gloves yesterday.  That doesn't mean he can't get the groundball when he needs it, as he proved twice this weekend that that isn't the case.  It's just a combination of his command, size, and solid life on the pitch.  It also helps that he doesn't make problems for himself.  Not only did Reynolds not walk batters, it seemed like he hardly threw balls unless they were intentionally borderline (one four seamer did go the backstop, but that was quite the anomaly).  Being in the strike zone too much is only a problem if you lack a sizeable repertoire, movement, or a propensity for getting groundouts.   Despite being pulled after seven, it's hard to believe Reynolds approached 100 pitches, and his stuff was just fine, if not better than the first inning.  He also didn't look half bad at the plate.  Though he struggled with the sac bunt, he did take some good cuts at pitches and lined a few foul.  He won't be great in this category, but could be Francis-esque. REYNOLDS CONT. AFTER JUMP

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