SB Nation User Blog: David OhNo

Tyler Matzek, Number One Purp?

David OhNo — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 06:21:13 -0000

While Matzek has unofficially topped my prospect list since the second week in June, we had to wait until Monday to officially kick off this debate. As improbable as this discussion may have seemed leading up to the draft, the conclusion should not be terribly difficult, as Matzek combines power offerings, moxy, command, and one of the smooth delivery into a package the Rockies haven’t seen in a pitching prospect. Let’s look at a few reasons why Matzek should front your Purp list:

Matzek has the deepest repertoire of all Rockies’ top prospects

YouTube is becoming a great source for prospect video. Type in the name Tyler Matzek and you get about twenty different videos. One benefit is that you get a great look at Matzek’s four-seam, two-seam, slider, and curve. If radar gun readings are more your thing, then you’ll love this one.

What do these tell us? For one, Matzek’s breaking pitches are both plus pitches, with both breaking roughly on the same plane, but vary in their depth and velocity. One thing you may notice in these clips is that Matzek throws both breaking pitches from the same slot, which isn’t all that common for high school pitchers. When the fastball comes from the same slot (it seems to on most of the clips but on the two-seam it looked like he tried to get on top of the pitch more) it helps play up his deception. In addition to arm slot, Matzek’s arm speed stays consistent from pitch to pitch. This becomes more deadly when hitters cannot tell out of hand which breaking pitch he’s about to throw without a tip from his arm speed. What we don’t have great video of here is his change-up, but those that watched his AFLAC outing saw a few solid ones, and this pitch as well should become a staple offering.

What separates him from Friedrich is going to be the variance in his fastball. Like Ubaldo Jimenez, Matzek seems to have the ability to bounce between fastballs regularly to produce a desired effect. The Rockies will most likely stress the importance of the sinking two-seam, but you cannot ignore the importance of being able to reach back and get 96 MPH when you need it, which Matzek does in the link above.

So we have a pitcher that has plus velocity on his fastball, plus break on his curve and slider, good arm speed and consistent arm slot… what will make these pitches better? Command and Matzek has it. Watch a long enough clip of Matzek (like his Law or AFLAC video) and you’ll see him consistently spot his fastball on both sides of the plate. This is what separates him from the other high school arms in the draft, and puts him over Chacin for me. Jhoulys doesn’t have to be fine in the minors because his pitches move so much. Matzek likely won’t need it either through the early minors, but simply having plus command is what’s going to get him to the majors in short order.

Matzek has a very easy delivery

This may be the most overlooked aspect when comparing Matzek to the other top arms in the system. The first thing that likely stand out for you is the ease at which Matzek delivers the ball. He keeps a good tempo from leg lift to release, and does not speed up his arm to catch up to his lower body (one thing that Friedrich tended to show on his draft video). I like how Matzek keeps things simple on the mound and focuses more on tempo and balance, as you’ll notice his head tends to stay on the same plane until release (a good sign of balance). It’s this balance and tempo that allows Matzek to maintain his consistent arm slot and release point, subsequently aiding his command.

This isn’t to say that Matzek’s delivery is flawless; Baseball America notes in their draft profile that Matzek tends to open up too soon. However, correcting this may have/will bridge the gap between early velocity rumors on Matzek (90-94) to the more recent ones (96). On some of the breaking pitch clips above, you might notice that Matzek’s shoulders may be coming square a little too quickly to home than ideal. In the velocity video, though, Matzek is doing a better job of getting separation between the time his hips start to open and the time his shoulders do. Making this motion more consistently will not only potentially increase his velocity, but put less strain on his arm and allow his core to better assist his delivery to increase efficiency (which in turn promotes stamina, velocity, and health).

Matzek is highly regarded in the scouting industry

That isn’t to say other Rockies prospects aren’t highly regarded, but remember, no Rockies’ prospects made Baseball America’s mid-season top 25. We don’t have any guarantees Matzek will get there, but we have several anecdotes to lead us to believe he’s one of the top incoming prospects for 2010. Matzek was voted in Baseball America’s draft preview to have the second best secondary offering among high schoolers, the best command, and the "closest to the majors." Depending on which scouting service you relied on leading up to the draft, Matzek was anywhere from second to ninth on big boards, climbing as the draft grew near. You can also see this praise of Matzek in post signing day chats, such as the Callis chat Rox Girl recently linked that picks Matzek over Jacob Turner. From Goldstein to Law to Baseball America, Matzek is held in very high regard, more so than any recent Rockies’ draft pick. You don’t have to like Matzek because I do, but read some notes by these guys that get paid to evaluate talent, and you’ll read comments you just don’t see said about our other top arms.

Matzek has a little bit of everything from our top prospects, but takes it one step further.

I don’ like reading the argument that Matzek can’t be number one because he hasn’t thrown a professional pitch yet (where do we rank him if his first pitch is a ball?) simply because there’s enough information available on Matzek to not have to wait to see that Asheville ERA. I don’t think it’s fair to discount Matzek for something out of his control, namely professional experience, when so much of the physical attributes point in his favor. Matzek throws consistently harder than both Friedrich and Chacin, but as hard as Rogers. We saw Chacin reach 94 mph in relief, but in most of his Tulsa starts, he sat 89-91. Friedrich’s fastball is rumored anywhere from 88-95, but Goldstein continually refers to this pitch as a tick above average, while calling Matzek a potentially overpowering lefty in his draft preview. Similar to Rogers, Matzek doesn’t have to exert as much effort as Friedrich and Chacin to generate 90+ heat, and with a more consistent hip-shoulder separation, Matzek could sit mid 90’s more consistently.

Friedrich may have the best breaking ball still in the system, but Matzek’s curve doesn’t trail too far behind it, and Matzek’s slider could easily become his most effective breaking pitch. That would put Matzek and Friedrich on a roughly similar level on off speed pitches. Chacin’s breaking pitches are arguably more raw than Matzek’s, and while his change-up may be a better pitch on movement, his command isn’t aiding to its effectiveness yet.

Matzek has them all beat on upside. Friedrich cannot match his fastball and ease of delivery. Chacin cannot match his command or his velocity. Rogers cannot match his repertoire. All these pitchers are great prospects, but Matzek either exceeds their tools or is close to bridging the gap in tools he lags behind in.

Whether or not Matzek’s more impressive physical tools put him over the top is a question for you to decide, just don’t make light of all the details. From the ease of delivery to the stuff to the command to the national reputation, Matzek has more helium than any Rockies’ prospect since Tulowitzki, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him reach the Top 10 some national publications’ Top 100 Minor Leaguers lists. Does the complete package outweigh the lack of experience? It’s now your turn to tell me.

Kyle Gibson, a No-brainer at No. 11

David OhNo — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:59:11 -0000

No, I haven’t been living under a rock for the past week (or for this site, months). I’m not under the influence; nobody’s slipped anything into my purple kool-aid… I’m typing from a clear state of mind; Kyle Gibson just may be the most logical draft choice for our beloved Rockies tomorrow. I think we must consider a few parameters before looking deeply at this Rockies draft:

1. We have no reason to believe the Rockies’ draft budget isn’t at or below slot for each selection we have in the early rounds.

2. With no notable changes in the Rockies’ player development group, we cannot expect the Rockies’ draft philosophy to change dramatically, or any at all.

3. The Rockies’ talent pool at the A levels (specifically Low A) is substandard and could play a role in the type of players targeted early.

So how does any of this relate to a pitcher with a fractured forearm that Keith Law won’t even put in his first round mock? Way more than you’d think. Allow me to present my argument in the case for Kyle Gibson:

Point #1: Gibson’s talent is on par with the eleventh overall selection.

You don’t have to be a draft-nik to know that Gibson has put himself in the top group of arms for this draft. Gibson’s junior season at Missouri has been almost flawless on a week to week basis (Ironically, his worst start was the only one I was able to take in live at Oklahoma State). Gibson made comparisons to John Lackey look fairly apt for the bulk of the season. His clean mechanics and growing frame suggest future workhorse in spite of his injury (which can partly be blamed on a large innings jump from last season as well as a work load that often saw pitch counts past 135- Roy Halladay is the exception NOT the rule). He’s smart with a fastball that can produce plenty of groundouts, as well as a slider that still showed plus depth in his rough start at Oklahoma State. Despite being 6’6 and 208 lbs., there’s still not a lot of space on his frame to put more weight (he has a slender structure), but with a consistent professional regimen, he could gain enough strength to keep his fastball consistently at 92-93 instead of 89-91.

I’m sure by now most of you think I’m talking about Greg Reynolds, but there are some major differences. One, Reynolds did not have a plus breaking ball coming out of Stanford, but one that could possibly become plus with more work. Gibson’s slider is a plus pitch that will better fit Coors because of the weak grounders it produces when it’s not running away from bats. Two, Gibson’s two seam has more sink and life than Reynolds’. I still felt Reynolds got decent action on the two seam at Tulsa, but it wasn’t the same in Colorado. Gibson’s movement is aided by the angle in which he throws, making his two seam much heavier than Greg’s. Three, Reynolds did not dominate the college game like Gibson did this year. Gibson has a k/9 of 11.04, Reynolds was not a K per inning pitcher at Stanford. Likewise, Gibson’s BB/9 was 1.6, while Reynolds’ was almost a walk higher. All of this, and I still feel Reynolds is a good pitcher just needs his arm to cleanup. My summation of Gibson’s talent is that I still believe he’s a number three pitcher, but one with a much safer bet to reach that ceiling than Reynolds thanks to a plus slider and possibly a plus change. This may still seem underwhelming to some, but just how much talent are we leaving on the board…

Point #2: Pick 11 is less important to the Rockies draft than pick 32.

Boy does that come across as an asinine statement, but hear (err read?) me out. Several players the Rockies have been linked to at pick 11 have also been linked to them at pick 32. After the top seven or eight guys, the next tier of talent in this draft arguably extends over 50 or so players. The guy the Nationals pick at 10 could very well still be in play at pick 50. I believe this situation devalues the 11th pick this year, but I want to touch on this in my next point. Right now, let’s look at the alternatives to Gibson:

Mike Leake: I really wanted to buy into this guy. I’ve read the Tim Hudson comparisons and tried to see past the physical shortcomings… and then I watched his performance Saturday. I just don’t see this guy being a better pitcher than Gibson. Leake has all the collegiate-y goodness to win hearts in Omaha, but how much of it applies to the pro game. My first big issue is that to generate his plus fastball movement, he has to dial it down to 87-88, and even then, he still slings the ball from a ¾ angle. To up his velocity, he tends to drop the angle a bit, but loses sink. To throw his breaking pitches, he tends to get on top of the angle a little more, and the curve has a real slurvy-ness to it. I get the feeling that his hype is generated by several people that want to believe it. I don’t think he’s in the 90’s as much as advertised, and I don’t think polished pro hitters will carry the same backpedaling approach to the plate that overmatched collegians do. Leake reminds me a lot of 2007 California League Brandon Hynick. Go read your scouting report of Hynick in the BA Handbook in 2008, then go read a Mike Leake draft profile. Both will be pros, both may surprise and become Duscherer’s, or both may become Ian Kennedy. I want to believe, but I get the feeling I’ve seen this movie before.

Matt Hobgood: The most up-to-date mock out (ESPN’s Keith Law) has the Rockies selecting Hobgood. I have nothing against Hobgood, I love the boring fastball at 94 mph and am surprised he’s slipped under the radar for so long. However, this isn’t your typical HS right-hander. Hobgood is in some ways a right-handed Brett Anderson as a present tools prep. Hobgood’s frame (6’4 240) shows no projection, so you could probably assume that better conditioning will produce more consistent velocity, but it’s hard to see any more in there. There’s less to dream on with Hobgood as there would be a Shelby Miller or Matt Purke, so "upside" isn’t as a big a factor with Hobgood as it would be a typical HS arm. Thus, if present tools need to be given more credence, is he a better choice than Gibson? Gibson’s off-speed pitches are supposedly superior, and his command isn’t on par with either Leake or Gibson. The fastball is great, but considering the vast talent in this tier, you can probably get a comparable fastball at pick 32.

Tim Wheeler: This guy is continually linked to the Rockies at pick 11 and pick 32. With so many people thinking he’ll still be around at 32, 11 seems like quite the overdraft. Wheeler lacks the one plus tool that gets him out of "possible fourth outfielder" projection, and considering that reports already suggest he’ll move to a corner, that will be all but certain when he’s taken by the team with the mother of all expansive outfields. I think he makes a lot of sense at 32, but his offensive ceiling isn’t necessarily higher than Gibson’s ceiling on the mound, and I fear his floor is much lower. Suffice to say, I’m not convinced this is a safer pick, let alone good value.

Shelby Miller: Or any other high ceiling prepster. Remember back to point number one on this one; The Rockies are likely working at slot on their picks, and Law is stating in his mock today that Miller wants significantly more than that. More upside? Sure. Would I like him? You bet. Does he fit? Hardly, Miller violates parameter one, two, and possibly fits outside of three.

Alex White: I’m still amazed he was ever linked to Colorado. I think he’s a very enticing talent, but he’s a Boras guy and surely won’t be after slot money. Fits parameter two, but guys like this are always linked to Colorado until draft day (see Luke Hochevar in 2005, Andrew Miller in 2006). Besides, his Saturday (and Gibson’s for that matter) will keep him from getting to Colorado at 11.

Aaron Crow, Tanner Scheppers: Better talents, but move on. These guys both violate parameter one more than anybody we’ve discussed yet.

Rex Brothers: One of my biggest pet peeves of draft scouting reports is reading about a pitcher sitting at one velocity, and then watching video of the guy sitting at much less. Brothers and James Paxton may be the biggest offenders this year, but that’s more a personal aside than any condemnation of their talent. Brothers is an arm strength lefty that looks destined to be a reliever, from the max effort delivery down to a two pitch mix as a starter at Lipscomb. Brothers’ fastball has solid burn, but it looks fairly straight to me, and his slider, though strong, is not as good as Gibson’s from what I’ve seen. I think Brothers’ fastball is a little too true to live off it as a starter in the upper levels, so while his floor is fairly high, his likely outcome is something less than the 11th overall pick. I’m also not convinced his size and arm slot are also conducive to the heavy groundball approach Colorado likes to employ. I see him as an odd fit for Colorado other than that he’s signable and should reach the majors, two qualities that fit the Rockies’ M.O.

We could go on, but I believe this proves my point, but I’m sure you’re wondering how the injury ultimately plays into this, so…

Point #3: Gibson is likely a slot or below slot signee.

So now he fits into both parameter one and two, and despite delaying his arrival to the minors until 2010, his polish qualifies as an answer to the talent in question in parameter three. Before injury, most reports seem to suggest that Gibson was a slot guy, considering his lower ceiling in comparison to other players in the top eight. Now saddled with an arm injury, Gibson is left dealing from a position with little leverage. Draft Gibson at pick 32 or 34, and you’re more likely to face a Tanner Scheppers situation, as the lost money becomes significant. Draft, Gibson at 11, and the lost bonus from falling out of the top ten is much less significant. If we assume that Gibson would have gone at pick 8 to the Reds as several mocks presumed, then the difference in slot from 8 to 11 is roughly 200,000. To pick 32, the drop off becomes 1,200,000 (using figures from the 2008 draft). Ignoring the new slot recommendations for a second, Gibson would still be in line for close to 2,000,000 in bonus should the Rockies float slot to him at 11. Yet the Rockies still hold the cards here…

Point #4: The opportunity cost of gambling on Gibson is less this year than other years.

This point is based off the assumption that the talent level at 11 this year is not on par with past or future years of the draft. Building off point #3, the Rockies don’t have to sign Gibson if they don’t like what they see at the end of July. I’ve already tried to establish that the value for the Rockies at pick 11 isn’t tremendously higher than the value at pick 32, so we shouldn’t make pick 11 out to be any more important than pick 32 or 34, especially when you factor in the transaction cost of pick 11. This gives the Rockies some leverage with how Gibson pans out in July. Points in the Rockies favor:

1. The Rockies are already granted a shot at two players in this second tier at picks 32 and 34

2. Failure to sign Gibson would give the Rockies the 12 pick in the 2010 draft

3. Gibson’s diminished leverage could lead to a potential discount on slot at pick 11

4. A perfectly healthy Gibson in July would represent a steal at 11

Point 2 on this list is certainly a gamble. There are no guarantees that 2010 will be a better draft than 2009, but it’s certainly possible that the talent could be better, as much as it’s possible that the drop off in talent will be faster after the first 15 picks than it will be in this year, where the drop off may not begin until the middle of round two. Gibson gives the budget conscious Rockies the best chance to control costs while procuring a better talent. If his medical records don’t check out in July, the Rockies move on, take the future first, and remain satisfied that they still selected twice in the first round in 2009. Or, Gibson looks good in July, the Rockies likely pay slot for his services, and land a player they could not have expected to land before last weekend.

Point #5: Pick 11 doesn’t break this draft as much as picks 32 and 34 make it.

The final point rolls a few points into one. Because of the Rockies perennial budgetary concerns, pick 11 is not likely to be a major talent boon when you consider the players likely available at the spot. However, picks 32 and 34 are significantly more important to the success of this draft. Again, consider that the talent is still deep at these picks AND slot is roughly one million less than it is at 11, so you could assume that the Rockies are taking a player of roughly equivalent talent value at half the cost of their actual first round pick. You simply cannot miss here. This could be the landing spot for a high upside prep (Gould, Stassi, Davidson, Skaggs, Heathcott) or a polished collegian with still intriguing tools (Poythress, Heckathorn, Mitchell, Wheeler, Pollock, Jackson). The Rockies also have to be prepared for any surprise sliders from the middle of round one (remember Christian Friedrich, your likely number one Purp for ’10?).

In summation, Gibson just isn’t as big a gamble for Colorado as he would be another franchise. Colorado was not likely to receive a better talent than Gibson at 11 that was both affordable and signable, and they won’t be left in the cold of the talent grab should they fail to sign him. I don’t want to underplay Gibson’s arm injury, but when drafted, Colorado will have two months to monitor his rehab and injury reports to make an informed opinion about his health and future prospects on the mound. By then, the Rockies will either have one of the bigger steals of the first round in 2009, or they simply try again from roughly the same slot in 2010, knowing that they still had two shots at first round talent in 2009.

The Oakland Trade: A Better Fit?

David OhNo — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 06:34:35 -0000

When I started writing out posts on the upcoming moves for the off-season, I stressed two critical factors in the Rockies trying to maximize their performance with a limited roster: Play better defense and get more (or luckier) out of your bullpen. Not so surprisingly, these two factors often play a role on teams that win more than their run differential suggests they should. In the coming bulletin points, we’ll see just how this trade did in attacking these goals and why I believe the Rockies made the deal with the right intentions.

Carlos Gonzalez (We’ll start with the big fish)

The Rockies received the high end young talent they were lacking in the St. Louis trade- This isn’t Colby Rasmus, but it’s pretty close. This is a highly regarded prospect. Coming into the season, Gonzalez was the top rated player in the Diamondback-then-Athletics systems according to Baseball America, and was a five star prospect by BP’s Kevin Goldstein. Gonzalez is said to have otherworldly tools and has flashed these a little more often in his recent minor league stints. It’s easy to look at his MLB numbers with disappointment, but in his defense, he did not appear ready for the challenge of the major leagues (offensively, I should say), and he made his debut at the still young age of 22. He’ll likely play an entire year in the majors next year at just 23, and the tools aren’t going anywhere. Goldstein floated the Hanley Ramirez comp, and someone in the trade thread used Beltran, and both are possible outcomes for Gonzalez because his skill level is that high. Sometimes, things suddenly click for guys like this and the sky becomes the limit. He’s still too raw to worry about walk rates yet, let the power blossom and allow him to find his own way at the plate, Ramirez wasn’t exactly the most patient young player but the numbers have come with better performance. Bottom line, we weren’t getting this type of player from St. Louis, and because of that I figured Gonzalez would have been off limits.

+5, +5- I won’t make you guess what these are, those are Carlos Gonzalez’ plus/minus numbers in center and right. This goes to the first part of “beating your pythag,” Gonzalez’ plus/minus in both positions represent an upgrade over our current output. I don’t quite get the left field talk with Gonzalez. Sure, we need to find a replacement for Holliday there, but Spilborghs and Smith were already stretches in center, and Gonzalez plays it better right now than anyone Colorado has. Long term, Gonzalez will be Hawpe’s replacement. CoGo has a very strong arm and though he had four kills in a smaller MLB stint, his strength in controlling the running game came as much in teams declining to run on him than him throwing them out on the basepaths. He may need to clean his accuracy up a tad to increase the number of kills going forward, but again, Gonzalez has just turned 23 and has plenty of time to refine his defensive skill. What he doesn’t need is any more range. Go to the Oakland A’s website or Carlos Gonzalez’s MLB player page and you can watch highlight after highlight of diving catches in the gaps at Oakland’s McAfee Coliseum. For 2009, the Rockies can pencil in Gonzalez in center and trust it’s playing a guy with plus speed, plus arm, plus first step, and a solid understanding of routes and angles. Assuming Gonzalez can repeat his ’08 plus/minus, he represents a 10 run swing over Taveras in center, and that alone could be an additional win next year.

Future and Financial Flexibility- Aside from being talented, Gonzalez also gives the Rockies another chance at developing a star on the cheap. The team should have few qualms finding a role for him next year, and with the possibility of a breakout, the Rockies could have yet another major asset costing them close to nothing. In addition to payroll flexibility, the Rockies could have additional roster flexibility. Assuming both Gonzalez and Fowler blossom next year, Gonzalez has the tools to slide to right field with no problem and give the Rockies a plus defender with high end offensive tools at the position, and back to the financial flexibility, allow the Rockies to look into moving Hawpe down the road.

Huston Street (More valuable than most think)

Was it that bad?- If the Rockies were to deal with the A’s, I figured Street would be the key major league part to the deal, but I’m surprised at talk he could be flipped again. I’ve read some of the post-trade scouting reports, but a lot of them just don’t jive with the data. Street threw his fastball on average .4 mph slower, the slider .9 mph slower, and the change .4 mph harder. All in all, the velocity numbers from the pitch type data just don’t reflect a major change in that regard. Those numbers don’t reflect drops in movement, and he may have suffered there, but Street’s FIP for ’08 was still a better number than Fuentes’ career FIP (though not better than his ’08 number). On August 19^th, Will Carroll wrote in his UTK article that Street believed he had figured out what was wrong and would revert to his old self thereafter. From that date on, Street’s ERA dropped from 4.42 to 3.74, and he pitched to a 1.74 ERA in September. That may be a small sample size, but it’s still ironic that his improvement coincided with a believed mechanical fix. All told, Street was worth almost two wins out of the bullpen in Oakland (based on WXRL 0f 1.943). The Rockies’ expect closer Corpas? That number finished in the red (-.243)

Don’t upset the apple cart- Point two of “beating your pythag” is a good bullpen. A good bullpen does not have to have a great closer, but it does need a great leverage pitcher. Street is not ’08 Fuentes, but you can make the case he is every other year Fuentes. Street picks him K’s without a big fastball and generally keeps the walks down. He’s coming to the easier league (good bye DH, hello pinch hitting, slap swinging, fourth outfielder) and will be facing hitters who have not adapted to his unorthodox mechanics and sweeping breaking ball. Add in supposedly cleaned mechanics, and you have the chance for a solid rebound (and we aren’t looking for much, he was still pretty good last year). One of Street’s attributes is his “closer history.” Street can settle into the ninth inning role, and his managers and teammates can have confidence in him getting the job done. That’s important because then the Rockies can release the better pitcher, Buchholz to tackle the eighth and high leverage appearances in the seventh. This also means the Rockies don’t have to move Corpas to a role he hasn’t earned back and make allow him time to regain form (namely getting back on top of his pitches). Remember, closers are overrated as is, and Street allows the Rockies to replace Fuentes one for one without upsetting the balance of the bullpen. This also gives the Rockies versatility in playing the free agent market for additional relief help.

Financial Flexibility…- I’m sure some can spin this as being cheap, but again with Street, the Rockies can have a “proven closer” not making 7-8 million per year, and will allow the Rockies to spend money elsewhere. Street’s likely in line for a bump in salary from 3.3 million last year, but the Rockies are just going year to year, and assuming they do put Street in the closer’s role, I’d expect in two years, the Rockies would be looking at another Type A free agent, and subsequently, a couple of first rounders again (He’s a projected A this year).

Greg Smith (As long as he doesn’t fail his physical)

There is still upside here, maybe?- I’m not thrilled with this piece, but this should be Smith playing the “J.A. Happ-Skip Schumaker role,” so his contribution isn’t AS critical. On VORP and SNLVAR, Smith was as good as our top two arms last year, but when the year is peeled back, there were obvious fluke signs. That said, Smith can still make improvements in areas he’s shown proficiency for in the past and hope to keep some of his gains. For one, Smith’s BB/9 rate was much higher last year than it has been in any of his minor league stops. Smith can improve this through reputation, once the umpires gain respect in his nibbling ways, they will be more inclined to give him the black. Smith can also “give in” more to hitter, using the two seam fastball a little more when he gets behind in counts. The other improvement Smith can make is in his GB%. Smith’s sub 40% GB% won’t cut it in Coors, but he’s been above this number several times in the minors. Smith has the two-seam and diving cutter to be better in this department, but it was easy to take advantage of Oakland’s spacious foul territory. He’ll have to make improvements here, but Apodaca has been fairly successful at milking pitcher for all their ability to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible.

Financial, Trade Flexibility- Here it is again, Smith gives the Rockies a fifth starter that has tasted big league success, and he won’t cost anything. Smith allows the Rockies to become more open minded in their return for Taveras and Atkins. Now, getting a guy like Sowers or Broadway becomes redundant, and if the Rockies can find a better trade fit for a right handed bat, reliever, or even second baseman, they can do so without worrying as much about starting pitching. There’s always a chance that Smith be packaged with Atkins or Taveras to improve a haul. Lastly, Smith must still take and pass a physical, so before looking more into Greg, we need to first make sure he’ll be coming this way.

Overall, I consider this trade a big improvement on the Cardinals’ package. Though the talent may not have the same track record, all three pieces fill a distinct hole, and the Rockies are afforded even more payroll flexibility to pursue improvements in any number of positions. Keeping Street could not only impact the bullpen, but also uphold the value of the two first round picks lost in dealing Holliday before his sixth season. The Oakland package offers more upside, long term potential, financial savings, and “scheme fits.” The success of the trade ultimately hinges on Gonzalez, but banking on five tool, highly regarded talent is the type of risk this team needs to take, and for this O’Dowd deserves much credit.

OhNo's Draft Preview 1: A Change Of Heart

David OhNo — Sat, 31 May 2008 03:39:51 -0000

We’re less than a week away from introducing over thirty new players to the Rockies organization, some potentially critical to the future success of this team. To highlight the importance of the draft, five players drafted last year made our Top 30 Purps list last time around, and all things considered, that class was not considered to be a rather strong group. This puts the organization at a crossroads of sorts, as many low ceiling guys from last year’s draft populate these lists, it highlights a lack of high end talent being pumped into the organization through the American route. Is this the draft that can help balance the talent profile, and can you find high end talent at the bottom of round one, and who the heck is this Odorizzi guy? I hope to outline such questions over the next several days. Can this draft save the franchise, or better yet, does it need to?...

Chapter One: Mea Culpa Jake Odorizzi

The first thing I realized when constructing this post is that I haven’t given Odorizzi his fair shake at our first pick. There are a lot of quick hits on Odorizzi that can scare you: He’s very slender at 6’3 and 170 lbs., he doesn’t consistently push his fastball into the mid 90’s, and as MILB’s Mayo suggests, he may not have the mound presence of a frontliner. High schoolers are a pretty big crapshoot, but it seems the best gambles are always the ones with MLB ready bodies (6’4 210 lbs.) and big fastballs (94 mph consistently). Odorizzi just isn’t this guy. Despite the height, I don’t believe that Odorizzi has the typical high school projection. The hips are narrow, as are the shoulders. There’s room to make it to 200 lbs. but any more won’t be of the athletic variety.

Yet how important is frame in this case? One is a matter of adding enough strength to hold velocity longer and perhaps increase it. To that regard, I think he has that type of growth potential. What about durability? Well, Odorizzi’s clean, fluid mechanics suggest that the health of his pitching arm won’t rest on the muscle upholding it but the less strain he places it under while pitching. There are various YouTube videos of Odorizzi pitching, as well as one at ESPN, showing the mechanics of Jake’s delivery. The importance here is that he lacks violence in his motion, while still pitching at a good arm slot and maintaining plus arm speed. If I had a complaint, it would be that he doesn’t seem to follow through as much (shorter stride), which may hinder his velocity and deception. However, you could also make the case that the shorter stride (not a short stride ala Tyson Ross), keeps the arm motion a little more fluid, he still finishes with his weight balanced above his plant foot and doesn’t seem to add any extra strain on his shoulder.

Okay, enough small mechanics talk, how about the stuff? There’s really not a tremendous amount of information available on Odorizzi’s off-speed stuff, and I believe there’s only one video clip of his slider and one of his curveball on MILB.com’s draft reports. When I went back and gave Odorizzi a fair shake at catching my interests, the first thing that caught my eye was the life on his fastball. I’m a sucker for a good running, sinking heater (It’s why Aaron Crow’s my favorite ’08 draft pitcher) and apparently, so is Odorizzi, as this article suggests. Baseball America’s report on Jake had his velocity improving into the 91-93 mph, up 2-3 ticks over last summer, which I consider a very positive sign, and various reports have him topping 95 mph, so the heat is there for a first round HS-er. The ESPN clip on Odorizzi also shows plus arm side life on a fastball thrown almost over the top, and the ball explodes 2/3^rd of the way down. The breaking pitches are intriguing on two counts. The first is that both have plus potential. Mayo’s video shows a sharp 1-7 break on the curveball. Since it’s thrown almost over the top, it’s not likely to freeze batters as much as a curve with more of a "hiccup" in its break. From what I can tell, the slider may just be a harder variation of the curve, similar to Taylor Buchholz. Mayo worries about Odorizzi’s bat missing potential, and while he’s having no problem this spring, it could be a case of Odorizzi not developing and implementing his slider and four seam much in the summer circuit last year. Bottom line, the repertoire is pretty extensive and promising, with four potentially plus pitches and a delivery that gives the pitches the perception of more life.
Bottom Line Comparison: Homer Bailey

That’s certainly high praise, but let me put this in the right perspective. Odorizzi’s build is similar to the Texas fireballer, and while he doesn’t have the same power, the life on his pitches is similar, and he has pretty good polish for a HS-er. It’s hard to compare upside with a player who hasn’t even reached his yet, but Jake’s ceiling isn’t near Homer’s, but when you adjust Bailey’s down to its present level, they look like fairly solid comps. Like Odorizzi, Bailey has questions about mound competitiveness, but both have potential to throw strikes with all of their pitches. Basically, Odorizzi’s ceiling is likely in the region of Bailey’s most likely outcome. I see Jake as a solid number two-three starter with a good power repertoire but not dominating strikeout totals. For the 25^th pick, that isn’t all bad. Bottom line for organization skeptics, Odorizzi already has fluid mechanics and strike throwing ability, which means there’s little for the Rockies to iron out. After mixed/poor results with Roe, Jimenez, Morales, etc., that should be welcoming to most.

All told, everybody who’s anybody (or however that phrase goes) believes the Rockies will select Odorizzi, so why might as well get the introduction out of the way. Getting past my high school pitching concern, I’ve gone from skeptic to believer in three days. Maybe I’m just drinking the kool aid, or maybe, just maybe, this kid’s simply a darn good gamble at the end of round one.

Multiple Reports: Torrealba, Herges Back in the Fold

David OhNo — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 03:27:40 -0000

Multiple sources are now saying that the Rockies have returned both Torrealba and Herges for the '08 season. If you're a Post person, you'll like this link. If the News is more your thing, try this one. Also, hat tip to roxfan4life for breaking this on the Row.

On the Torrealba front, it appears the Rockies have won out, landing Torrealba for the initial offer they handed him at the onset of free agency. I'm still not a big Torrealba fan, but this deal makes sense on several fronts. First, it will allow the Rockies to be more comfortable opening the year with the young Latin pitchers in the rotation. Second, at just 3.5 mil a year, the Rockies won't be crippled if Torrealba's offense drops in the tank and Iannetta takes over the job, either at some point in '08, or possibly '09. The links also not most importantly, that Torrealba did not fail a physical with the Mets, and that instead the Mets balked on three years. This removes concerns over the abrupt ending of the Mets courtship. While Torrealba was not my personal first choice, I will say that for the price, the Rockies made the best possible move they could at the catcher position.

As for Herges, the Rockies again seem to have won out in the negotiations and landed him on a one year deal. Herges was arguably the second most valuable reliever In the Rockies' pen this season, but at the same time, his success is heavily tied to an unrepeatable BABIP. By only offering one year, the Rockies can look to see if he has any more lightning left in the bottle before he turns back into the pumpkin his career has largely been (yes, that's too many metaphors). This isn't a significant commitment, but does reward Herges for his efforts and gives the bullpen another reliable veteran to mesh with what could be an influx of youngsters.

Based on the early reports, I believe O'Dowd succeeded with both moves and accurately pegged the value of both players while not over-extending the team's commitment to them. However, it is important to note that while both moves are good moves, they do not make the team better, per say. The Rockies don't need to be as concerned with being "as good" as they were last year (speaking of the 89 win regular season), but need to focus on still improving the roster to squeeze even more wins out of 162 games. Herges and Torrealba plug holes they created by filing for free agency, but, obviously, they don't bring upgrades to other parts of the roster.

It's a great start, but there's still much work to be done if we want to continue watching this team into next October again.

Fun With the Bill James Handbook: Catcher's Market

David OhNo — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 02:23:28 -0000

In the past couple of Novembers, the first projections I tend to seek out for the upcoming season come from the Bill James Handbook. I find this book to be a good prep book for the off-season, it's a quick resource for splits, line stats, defensive numbers, and also a basic projection for pitchers and hitters. They don't seem to be as detailed as PECOTA or ZIPS, but since no projection system is perfect, it's a fun tool to assist in forecasting for '08.

So this evening I thought we'd look at how the guys at Baseball Info Solutions see how a couple of our catcher suspects shape up for the coming year. While the projections give games played, homers, etc. for guys, I will only include: batting average/ on base percentage/ slugging percentage, and then OPS. I'm not a huge fan of OPS, but it is handy in this case, and most all of you understand it's use as a rough evaluation tool. So let's start with the one we know the best:

Yorvit Torrealba

.251/.315/.388 .703

Yorvit had a career year of sorts, and BIS sees him as basically repeating his "successes" of last season. However, his OPS is projected to be the lowest of the four primary targets. I tend to find this ironic in that he's also likely to rake in the most money of the four this off-season. Defense and personality make a difference, and his top rating is defensible. Torrealba is an excellent backstop, capable of blocking most everything and has proven himself with a young pitching staff.

While those traits are valuable, it's easy to place too much stock in them while ignoring other factors. For one, the CS% was miserable, and it's possible he won't return to past heights. Torrealba is no longer young, and in a physically demanding position, he has little time to properly heal his throwing shoulder while also building up strength to handle a larger load of games. Age, injury history, and positional hazards are all concerns about his long term success at controlling the running game.

That basically boils Torrealba down to a guy that works well with pitchers, blocks balls, but relies heavily on Coors to support his offense, may struggle to control the running game, and has an injury history that should give teams pause before handing over a big contract. There's still value here, but for a team like Colorado, with a very limited budget, they simply cannot allow sentimentality to supersede good judgment. Simply put, 7 million over two years is too much for this guy, now 15 million over three?...

Paul LoDuca

.283/.331/.395 .727

One of the biggest ironies of the off-season is the Mets inclination to improve on LoDuca with a younger, but less fancy version of LoDuca in Torrealba. Keep in mind that park matters in these projections; BIS is assuming that all players will return to last year's teams in determining their `08 line. So LoDuca would get a bump from Coors on these numbers, while Torrealba would lose some should he head for Shea.

Basically, we have the same player here as before. Like Torrealba, LoDuca is not the most disciplined hitter, nor one blessed with tremendous gap power. However LoDuca is more consistent in the average department, inflating the rest of his line. Defensively, the similarities are more real. Both are excellent at blocking balls in the dirt, are noted as good pitchers' catchers, and really struggle to control the running game. Before you try and sell me on Torrealba's superior game calling skills, note that his catcher's ERA is almost identical to LoDuca's (and on top of this, this number tends to vary from year to year like ERA, which minimizes the value of game calling anyways).

I also tend to believe that the risks associated with LoDuca are overstated. Sure his age is a factor, but he doesn't appear to be significantly declining offensively, and we aren't talking about 2009 either. If he can be had for double Yorvit's `07 contract, he'll be a good buy for Colorado, and may even represent an improvement at the position based on his superior offensive skills.

Jason Kendall

.275/.369/.335 .704

His edge over Torrealba in OPS is an insignificant .001 at first glance, but when you factor in Coors, it may become slightly more noticeable. Kendall has one additional offensive tool that is intriguing, plate discipline. Torrealba's power isn't so great that the drop in SLG from him to Kendall will make a difference, but Jason advantage in OBP could have more ramifications on adding runs over the course of the season.

However, there is a major red flag with Kendall. The first is that he's already shown some evidence of bottoming out offensively, as he did in Oakland. As an undersized catcher at age 34 and an offense built on patience and contact, if the batting skills erode, teams will just pound the strike zone, and the OBP will flee with the batting average. He's at the point in his career that if it goes again, it may not come back this time, and after watching this happen to Finley, it could be even more concerning should it happen to the "everyday catcher."

Defensively, there isn't much to see here. Kendall doesn't throw out base runners, but did have the best catcher's ERA of the four and proved durability by catching the most innings of the group by a large margin. He's not a great backstop, but not terrible either.

Kendall's a high risk, moderate reward signing. If the contact skills stay in tact, and he realizes a Coors bump, we could be talking about a .300/.390/.360 hitter that could be used at first, second, or the bottom of the order. Yet, if the contact skills fade, he will be the worst player on this list, and may be a big drain on the Rockies' `08 hopes. So long as the Rockies' employ a short leash with Kendall, there's some intrigue, but there's little middle ground here.

Michael Barrett

.262/.319/.424 .743

Note that of all the catcher's listed, Barrett's line stand the most to gain from shifting the projection out of Petco to Coors for half the games. Barrett has the most upside on this list, and is my preferred free agent option. I should also note that should the Padres offer Barrett arbitration, the Rockies won't pursue him (and Barrett likely would accept arbitration as the best way for him to get a big `08 pay day).

Barrett's season last year was bitten hard by the BABIP bug, and at 31, he's young enough to re-establish himself offensively. None of the catcher's on this list can boast the same peak offensive season as Barrett posted in an injury shortened 2006. It would not be unsurprising if Barrett hit .300/.340/.500 in Coors next season and be one of the team's top offensive performers.

I'm not going to lie to you and tell you he isn't a bad defender, because he is. However, I will tell you that most concerns are overblown. Barrett is a poor backstop and has had problems in the past with handling power stuff. He allowed three times as many passed balls as Torrealba, but don't blow this out of proportion. If Torrealba allowed one passed ball over a month's worth of games, Barrett would allow three passed balls over that same span. Barrett is also poor at throwing out base runners, but even that number may have been slightly skewed by catching traditional green lights in Young and Maddux. That doesn't excuse his CS%, but when the upside of these four is 19%, what does it matter. For as many people that criticize Barrett for his squabbles last season, you can find plenty of baseball guys that vouch for Barrett's baseball aptitude, from Maddux last year, to Buck Martinez at the WBC (lauding Barrett for his work ethic, desire to learn, and already high perception of the game). Again, Barrett's catcher's ERA is almost identical to both LoDuca and Torrealba, so if you think he's a poor game caller, it doesn't bare out in his staff's performance.

Again, let's be honest, he's a weak defensive catcher, and the weakest of the four. Yet let's not blow this out of proportion to the point we are comparing him to a coach pitch catcher. With the likely loss of Matsui to free agency and the insertion of an inferior player in his stead (I still see Stewart at second as highly doubtful, more likely Carroll/Q/Barmes/Nix), this team has to find a way to replace offense, and if he comes at a reduced rate, Barrett may actually be one of the better sticks on the market. So long as the team finds a way to give Barrett time off when Jimenez is on the mound, and works Barrett in more as a bat off the bench when he's not catching, he could be the most valuable of the four by a wide margin. He's not worth the risk if our draft pick is involved, and he can't be asked to go at it alone, but if you buy into BABIP, there is a significant amount of upside here.

So that wraps up the list of "most often associated with Colorado" catchers. It's not a group of world beaters, but at the same time, it's not a group of significantly different players, and should each play exactly to there projections and defensive qualifications listed above, they may all end up with roughly the same overall value next season. At that point, the best buy becomes the cheapest buy, and as tight as money appears to be (a topic for another day), that may be the best route for the club...

...yet there is this other guy out there. His projection line looks like this:

.274/.370/.435 .805

That's a pretty significant improvement over the four above. From what I can tell, he might be the cheapest of the four as well. Again, this would be an upside play, and there is risk associated with this guy as well, but simply based on this projection, it would be worth looking into this mystery catcher as our `08 starter...

Off Day Off-Season Primer

David OhNo — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 02:27:48 -0000

While the Rockies' magical run has captured the interest of Denver fans and media alike, we've still seen some off-season stories start to trickle in. If you're like me, then you are probably anticipating the Rockies continuing this run into the World Series (why not?), but it also means that for the first time we won't have a month and a half to preview the off-season, but hopefully a mere sixteen days. Thus, it might be good to get a head start with the some of the stories and underlying issues of our off-season while we have a couple of days to wait nervously until Game One of the NLCS.

For those of you that wish to stay in playoff mode, I've spared you the scrolling by moving the bulk of this story behind the jump.

There's been some good discussion in some threads lately about the merits of keeping or re-upping certain players, and that will be the primary focus of this piece. A lot of good points have been made about the positive influences of both Fogg and Torrealba, and the resurgence of Fuentes, but what we need to take a look at is the factors relating to both team and player interest in a new deal. The best way to go about this is to break it down by player, so let's just kick it off with the most valuable:

Brian Fuentes

Entering the All Star break, it looked like Fuentes days as an effective stopper were over. His K rate was down to 7.41 from formerly lofty heights of 9+, and though the walk rate went with it, the hit and homer rate did not follow and Fuentes looked hittable and unnerved. At the time, I was ready to part ways as well, and hoped to get him back quickly to move him at the deadline to a desperate team willing to part with some young pitching. Now, I'm very happy to admit I was wrong. Off the DL, Fuentes suddenly went back to being old Fuentes, racking up the K's (9.53) but also the walks (4.76) while suppressing hits (4.37); effectively wild Fuentes was back. While he's hard on the heart, he's put up his best seasons with similar K and BB rates.

Luck had a hand in his good late stretch, he didn't allow a homer and the hit rate is way too low to repeat, but the return of the K and the new role were the two biggest factors in his success. Now, when Fuentes made a mess, he had help cleaning it up, thanks to a closer with excellent command and a GB heavy approach. Also, Fuentes could be used more aggressively against lefties through situation subs, facing a greater percentage of lefties after leaving the closers role. There was also talk that Fuentes had a hitch in his mechanics that was causing his stuff to flatten out, and while no follow up story was done to my knowledge, it's possible that Fuentes and the coaches ironed out some problems that helped return bite to his pitches.

Now that he's paired with Corpas to give the Rockies a competitive late inning tandem, O'Dowd has made it known that he'd like Fuentes back next year and beyond. O'Dowd has the right idea, by extending Fuentes past free agency, he may cut down what could be a large single season figure if Fuentes goes to arbitration, by spreading money over a two-three year contract. However, his comments about using two ninth inning relievers tells us something else about the situation: Fuentes still wants to close.

This is where it gets dicey. Despite his numerous All Star selections, Fuentes has never had an FIP lower than Corpas' 3.56 number posted this year, or for that matter an ERA lower than Corpas' 2.10. Manny has the power, control, and extreme GB tendencies to make him an elite closer, and on top of this, he has a hand in Fuentes' late success by cleaning up a couple messes Brian's left on the bases. It's just not a good idea to make the best Rockies closer (and one controllable for four more years) unhappy by cutting into his role.

So how will O'Dowd work around Fuentes' desire to close again, while getting Fuentes to re-up in a lesser role? Probably by paying him lip service; the Rockies always suggests two ninth inning guys when Fuentes returned but never came close to acting on it, even when it made sense with a lefty leading off the ninth. The most likely scenario is that the Rockies just head to arbitration and bite the bullet on potentially a 6-7 million dollar arb figure. Yet, if O'Dowd can somehow convince Fuentes that he's a better fit in his new role, while providing him financial security for the next two-three years, we could see Fuentes stay past 2008.

Josh Fogg

While the odds of retaining Fuentes for next year at least look good, they are considerably less promising with Fogg, and I'll explain in a moment. For starters, Fogg exceeded my expectations this season. He pitched like a top tier number five and turned in his best VORP since his rookie year. His rates didn't reflect a great difference over last year, but his consistent mediocrity proved valuable when the Rockies' rotation was just lucky to have five working starters.

There have been several good arguments made for retaining Fogg to serve in a wave role, crediting his value in the clubhouse as well as his mentality on the mound. While that makes some sense for the club, I think it makes little sense for the player, and don't see Colorado as an inviting place for Fogg's future.

Let's look at the situation hypothetically. Let's say that Rockies decide to ink in Francis, Cook, and Jimenez for sure in next season's rotation. They'd like Hirsh to compete for a role, but want Morales to get half a year at AAA. Also, we must look at the suggestion of Ken Rosenthal that Colorado will shop for a big starter this off-season (if not Willis or Bedard, we could still be open to one of the other mentioned trade names like Blanton, Garland, Burnett, etc.). So looking at it from Fogg's standpoint, he's had one of his best ERA's and win totals in his career, and he's developed a bulldog reputation that can rub off on younger players in a clubhouse. That's a pretty marketable persona when you look at the rotations of Kansas City, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Texas (just to name a few). If Fogg takes a critical look at his place in Colorado, he'll see that he's likely to have a role early on, but he also knows that Reynolds, Hynick, and Morales will all be waiting in AAA, and Morales is a guy the Rockies will certainly want to plug in as soon as he shows he's ready (assuming that isn't April). Basically, the Rockies can't guarantee that they'll have a job for Fogg for the entirety of next season.

Fogg has a bullpen background, and he could be a good fit in the front of Colorado's bullpen, but compensation isn't the same, and there are many teams that need a number five starter. Fogg is now 30, and he'd probably like to use this sub 5.00 ERA season to get a few years in a deal and decent amount of money to give him a cushy life after baseball. This off-season could be his chance to get his "big deal."

From the Rockies standpoint, they wouldn't mind having Fogg back for rotational depth to start the year, but probably can't guarantee that Fogg has a place in future plans with hopes of landing a big starter in addition to the three AAA prospects listed. It's doubtful the Rockies would be open to a three year deal, but could look at a one year deal with a club option for year two.

Ultimately, Fogg would do good for himself to hit the market and sell his reputation to a couple of young, depleted starting staffs looking for a good clubhouse guy, a place where he would face little competition for his role in the first two years. The Rockies can't offer this, and while I think both parties have a mutual admiration for each other, their likely goals and plans don't mesh. Fogg will be hard to retain.

Yorvit Torrealba

Torrealba's situation could end up being similar to Fogg's. Like Fogg, Torrealba's value goes beyond the statistical output, but we should also be careful not to overrate this particular aspect of his game. While Torrealba has been a solid mentor for our young Latin pitchers, we also need to be careful not to give him too much credit for their obvious talents. Still, he's given these guys a familiar voice and a reliable confidant as they were thrust into duty before maturation.

While the team's desire to retain Torrealba will be greater than that for Fogg, Torrealba looks to be in more demand as well. Already on today's Baseball This Morning on XM Radio, Buck Martinez has listed Torrealba as one of the top free agent catchers available this off-season, and it's clear his playoff momentum is becoming a factor in his off-season popularity. The same values Rockies' fans see in Torrealba are the same values that will make him enticing to teams; he's energetic and upbeat, he doesn't mind working with young pitchers, and has a reputation as a good receiver. A couple of high profile teams will be catcher hunting as well. Detroit-Torrealba rumors have already surfaced, and depending on the Posada situation, the Mets could be intrigued by his on field intensity and leadership qualities they feel they lack in the clubhouse. Simply put, Torrealba's little run could make him a pretty expensive commodity.

He's not going to suit everyone. He still finished 34th in VORP amongst catchers, and his throwing has not been good (but he can use the excuse that he was dealing with a young staff). Ideally, he's a backup catcher offensively that may see his bat die away from Coors. That said, the teams that have already or likely will hint interest are those that favor the intangible qualities of a catcher over certain offensive numbers.

So what do the Rockies want and do the Rockies fit what Torrealba wants? Based on some passing comments in the press over the last two months, the Rockies still consider Iannetta the catcher of the future, and I believe that O'Dowd (more so than Hurdle) and his development staff would like to see Iannetta get a little more action, but they also wouldn't mind having Torrealba's presence with the Latin pitchers back. At what cost, though? It's conceivable to think that Torrealba could creep in to the 4-5 mil a year category if the catching market dries up quickly, and the teams in need of catchers have deep pockets. The Rockies will still be operating on a limited budget with the expected raises of the big hitters in the lineup, and may not find it feasible to compete with the teams willing to give Torrealba big starter money.

From Torrealba's standpoint, how much playing time should he expect in Colorado next year? Thanks to his work this season and the playoffs, 4-5 teams will come to him offering starting jobs. The Rockies could offer this as well, but how much money and job security will be bigger issues. Of all the players on this list, Torrealba's return is the most up in air (since we aren't sure just how teams will react to his new reputation), and would have to put 50-50 odds on this one.

Miscellaneous Notes

-Why have we heard nothing on the Matsui front? I was worried that his offensive numbers were misleading, but looking at some defensive figures, he's very much worth retaining. I think loyalty and opportunity play a greater role with Matsui, and hope the team can put together a solid two year package, at that point Chris Nelson should be ready to take over.

-I don't expect Affeldt, Hawkins, or Julio back, but I do think the team still needs a top notch righty to match with Fuentes in the bridge to Corpas. By the all star break, the addition of Weathers to whatever set up man we add should give the Rockies a bullpen that not only stands out in surface stats, but also performs in leverage situations.

-Pay no attention to the Monfort's comments about adding payroll. For one, they were saying this before the season began, and two, they have to just to cover arbitration bonuses to field a roster. The payroll will increase, but lets not pretend O'Dowd will be getting a company credit card again this off-season. The Rockies will once again work under a modest budget, but one with increased flexibility. He'll get some new talent, but don't expect everyone to be retained long term.

-We'll talk about the situations of Atkins, Holliday, and Hawpe more after the playoffs, but one thing to keep in mind that a desire to retain players needs reciprocity to work. Just because the Rockies offer these guys a long term deal doesn't mean a) that it's competitive with what they could receive on the open market, and b) the player actually desires to remain with the team at that rate of pay. O'Dowd still has to work to insure long-term success without narrowing the window or deviate from the plan that has gotten the team this far. These players will get offers that make sense to the club, and it will be up to the players to decide if it makes sense for them. If it doesn't, don't be surprised if said player is still shopped this off-season.

Prospect Debate: Nelson vs. Gomez

David OhNo — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 03:05:34 -0000

With both players homering yesterday, I thought now would be as good a time as ever to bring this up: when it comes to the young shortstops in the system, I'm a Nelson guy.

Hector Gomez, as rox girl points out, has received a crazy amount of recent press, and was rated one spot higher in Goldstein's Top Ten. While I'm very excited to see where Gomez goes with his talent, for the time being, I'm picking Nelson ahead of Gomez for the time being, and will deliver my case with a few points:

-Nelson was considered one of if not the top high school hitter in the 2004 draft.

That's not to say Americans are better than international ball players, but it's more a statement of Nelson's pedigree and can explain the recent upswing in his talents. In Goldstein's recent top ten, he talks about how things suddenly can "click" for toolsy players, where they start to add production to their athleticism and not turn back. For Nelson, that looks as if this is the case in the second half of this year.

First half: .260/.330/.389
Second half: .314/.390/.607

From that standpoint, Nelson might be the organization's best offensive player in the second half of the year. With that type of pop, Nelson is starting to add performance to his projection as a middle order hitter.

-Nelson has already passed the "McCormick Threshold" and improved his performance.

This may not be completely fair to Gomez, because he hasn't had the opportunity to prove himself outside of Asheville, but for Nelson doing it, he should still earn credit. You could make the case that Nelson should be docked for not making gains in Asheville, but since prospects should have more emphasis placed on their performance at higher levels than the lower ones, and the most recent season compared to past ones, Nelson has redeemed himself this season.

The concern with Gomez is that he not having near the success away from McCormick, and his current pop may be more park than skill. Still, he's very young, and still projects well down the line. I'm just willing to give more credit to the guy who has shown progress away from McCormick.

-Nelson has a more polished skill set.

Gomez' phenomenal raw tools have drawn all kinds of comparisons to the elite players of the league. Yet, when you're this raw, these comparisons come more often. Before we really know what Gomez can be, we need to start to see some refinement in his plate discipline.

Nelson has already begun to show a mature approach at the plate. His walk rate is a healthy 10.1%, his K rate is an acceptable 17.2%, and he has improved both of those numbers from last year while at a higher level. Because of these gains and their current levels, we already have a rough idea of the type of hitter Nelson will be, and where he can fit in the lineup. That expectation is a hitter with solid contact skills, good patience, and above average pop for his likely positions. Where Gomez has the chance to blow these numbers out of the water if he reaches some of the comparisons thrown his way, he could just as well fall short with his missing plate discipline. Young players like Gomez can make big strides in this department, but for the time being, I'm siding with the safer bet to have a refined approach at the plate.

-Nelson is relatively close to the big leagues.

Though it's possible Nelson takes the minors step by step and makes his Rockies' debut in 2010, there are signs that his arrival could come much sooner. For starters, if he has finally "clicked" in the second half, than he'll carry his big performance to the Double A level. As soon as you establish yourself in AA, you're on the doorstep. Should Nelson put up a line like .300/.380/.500 in Tulsa next season, it's entirely possible that he could be in Colorado next year. He's already showing a refined offensive profile, so we should expect a good performance in Tulsa, and who knows from there.

Gomez, on the other hand, is just a teenager, and will need to prove he can hit away from McCormick, refine his plate discipline, and turn more power projection into power production. I wouldn't be surprised if he accomplishes all these things in Modesto, but that's a pretty big leap and doesn't necessarily have to happen in High A.

So in summation, I prefer to go with the guy that has a better chance of reaching his potential than the guy with the considerably higher ceiling. The difference isn't great; if Nelson is position prospect number one, Gomez is one A. Neither is going to be the next Rockies shortstop, and the positions they end up at could change these rankings. Nelson seems like a good fit for second base, and Gomez' comparisons to Hanley Ramirez could look more apt once Ramirez makes his eventual shift to centerfield, as Gomez likely will in the next two seasons. If there's a moral to this story, it's that the Rockies still have two very high ceiling talents coming down the pipeline despite graduating two on the left side of the infield over this year and next. Blue chip position players don't stop with Tulo and Stewart, the future contributions of Nelson and Gomez (and Fowler) could make an already bright future even brighter.

Organizational Risers and Sleepers: Lower Levels

David OhNo — Tue, 21 Aug 2007 04:28:53 -0000

Part two of the first installment of this series will focus on the lower levels of the system. One note for the lower parts is that 2007 draftees will not qualify for mention since they already are not included in the Rockies' Top Prospect List according to Baseball America. Instead, I'll focus on the draftees in the third installment. Again, I'll try for just one player per category per level, but as you'll see with Asheville, sometimes it just isn't possible. Also, I've combined both short season teams to just one short season level, since both teams are predominantly 2007 draftees. Lastly, if this is the first you've seen of this series, here's the link so you can get a better understanding of the premise.

High A

Riser: Daniel Carte
To be honest, picking someone out of Modesto that has really put himself on the prospect map was difficult. The players that have taken great leaps forward were either top prospects to begin with, or prospects that had already crept onto the scene. While a small few may move onto the BA list from this team, they'll likely head into the periphery instead of front and center. That leads us to Daniel Carte, who looks as if he's finally cashing in on the power potential the Rockies thought they saw on the Cape. Carte's ISO has blossomed to .216 compared to .165 last season, and unlike several Nuts players, he's slugging at home just as much as the road. He's also increased his batting average without increasing his contact rate...which leads us to the negatives. Carte's K rate of 29% won't fly at higher levels, and his 2.5% walk rate will be heavily picked on in Double A. What will he do when pitchers stop throwing strikes? Carte's BABIP is a staggering .389 this year, and should that fall with his other rates staying at their current level, he will cease to be useful. At the minimum, Carte has made himself interesting again. Despite his leap in surface numbers, Carte has much to prove in Double A, and without a change in approach, 2007 could be a flash in the pan.

Sleeper: Alan Johnson
It's really a toss up between Johnson, Durden, and Cedeno, since all have enough skills to be considered for higher prospect-dom, but have yet to put everything together, but Johnson wins because there's a point to be made with him. Numbers-wise, Johnson's doing everything you want him to do; he's keeping the ball in the yard, keeping runs off the base paths by nature of the free pass, and is getting his share of strikeouts. His peripherals have lead to an FIP of 3.61, roughly in line with his 3.29 ERA. If this all came from a 21 year old with a live arm, we'd be really excited right now, but Johnson's "scouting profile" comes up short. He's slight of build and isn't blessed with a big fastball. His numbers in just 13 innings of Double A give us a brief glimpse at what's likely to happen to his numbers. A drop in the walk rate is nice, but the K rate falls to a dangerous level for a guy without a big arm, and it's still possible he's just a really good organizational arm. If there's one thing in Johnson's favor, and it's a big one, it's results. If he just continues to produce, he'll carve out a major league career. He hasn't had a bad minor league year, and if he keeps up his control act through Triple A, he could get looks as a number five/ spot starter. As the Rockies are showing right now, these types of pitchers have value. Just keep piling up grounders, and there will be a job available somewhere.

Low A and Short Season are inside...

Low A

Riser: Keith Weiser

Asheville's going to get a few of these, since the premise of the "risers" is to profile players that have gone from off the prospect list to on, and Asheville has a few that should vault significantly. Weiser might be the biggest leaper, who figures to just miss the top ten and has made himself one of the systems best starting prospects. His biggest attribute thus far has been pitchability with durability. Weiser can keep his command, focus, and stuff deep into ball games. His ceiling isn't higher than a number four starter, but he's as sure a bet as you can find in Low A to reach the major leagues. I haven't seen or read enough about his stuff to give any conclusive comparison, but think Ted Lilly as far as impact and career path, and I don't think you'll be far off.

Riser: Michael McKenry

McKenry has worked his way into prospect status, but like many Asheville hitters, he has some explaining to do with his home road splits. His solid defensive reputation and outstanding plate discipline put him on the prospect map, but he'll need to prove his power and contact skills aren't a result of playing at McCormick Field. Because his numbers are so contrasting, it's hard to say what the Rockies have here just yet. His college prospect video shows a swing with little frills but a slight uppercut. It doesn't appear terribly slow or contact averse, but his line drive rate in Asheville has been very low (10%) for someone expected to provide a lot of pop or hit for a high average without speed. This rate was fine at Tri City, so he's exhibited this skill in the past. I'm not comfortable saying that he's not a McCormick creation, but his surface numbers make him intriguing and he has plenty of time to round out his offensive package. He's a stocky guy, so I'm not terribly sure why he's attempted to steal seventeen times.

Riser: Daniel Mayora

Mayora's another one I'm not completely comfortable with, but he's popped up on BA and BP mid-season prospect lists, so he's likely to be considered a Top 30 prospect. The power is all McCormick, his slugging is .255 points higher at home. He's not especially young for Low A, so despite his thin frame, it's hard to forecast a great deal of projection, in his frame. He may just be a spindly middle infielder that can hit for average despite inconsistent contact. The K rate for his skill set is too high, so when you consider the lack of power on the road, Mayora would be wise to cut down on his swing and look to adjust his approach accordingly. He's another one to file in the "interesting" folder, but until he discovers just what type of hitter he is, he'll be tough to project going forward.

Riser: Esmil Rogers

The recently featured Rogers has been receiving plenty of notice for the progress in his conversion to the mound, and he's one of Rox Girl's favorite young arms. Rogers is a bit rare for the Rockies in that he's a power arm with better command. His K rate of 7.00, BB rate of 3.14, and K/BB rate of 2.23 are all promising, but don't scream top prospect. His stuff, however, does, with a low 90's moving fastball (producing a 51% GB rate) backed up by his self proclaimed top pitch, the change up. You'd still like to see more dominance from a guy with a live arm, and he's going through Low A at an older age than most of our Latin hurlers, so he may not add much more to the heater. Guys like this make great trade bait.

Riser: William Harris

If you haven't noticed by now, Asheville's been one of the organization's bright spots, with more players taking a big leap forward (including Hector Gomez) than any level in the system. Harris fit's the traditional definition of "sleeper," but not in this case, since he's already put all his tools together to produce impressive results. The numbers are outstanding; Harris is blowing it by hitters (12.71), limiting free passes (2.72 BB/9), and keeping the ball in the yard (.45 HR/9, 58% GB rate). Shockingly, his numbers could be much better, as his BABIP is over .370! If scouting is more your thing, you have to like 6'4 225 lbs. and a hard fastball to increase the intimidation factor, not to mention that like Rogers, Harris is fairly new to pitching. Weathers may get the press, but Asheville's bullpen is deep in MLB quality arms(see also Tommy Baumgardner), and Harris may be the best after Casey.

Sleeper: Andrew Graham

Graham is about as intriguing as a 21st round pick can be. Armed with good size (6'4 210), a fastball with decent velocity (reaches 93 mph) and good arm side run, and deceptive mechanics, Graham has posted a set of peripherals that suggest a far better fate than he's received. If an early round pick had a K rate near 9/9 and a K/BB rate around 3.25, you'd see him in several mid-season prospect lists. Where Graham is falling short, though, is in the batted ball category. While he's proved deceptive enough to strike out batters in large numbers, he's got BABIP's above .380 both at home and away. It's possible he's suffering bad luck, but you still don't want to see young prospects post high BABIP's in the minors, especially this far down the ladder. However, as a 21st rounder, Graham doesn't share similar expectations. If he can carry his K's and command to higher levels and find a way to limit hits, he'll be a good find for Colorado. We aren't talking superstar, but your Matt Belisle's have value as well.

Short Season

Riser: Jhoulys Chacin

This one's a no brainer. Chacin may be handled gently by the player development team, but he's on the prospect list fast track, on pace to be one of Colorado' elite young arms by the end of next season. The national media is taking notice too, as Chacin was profiled by Goldstein in Monday's Future Shock (subscription required). Though years away, Chacin is already a wonderful blend of projection and performance. Just a teenager, Chacin has a chance to add more ticks to his low 90's fastball that has already proven to be overpowering in rookie ball (60% GB rate) and more size to his 6'1 168 lbs. frame. If growth never comes, Chacin already has a good curve and change, both pluses for his development level according to Goldstein. Like Hector Gomez, Chacin's ceiling is considerable, but he still has four levels of minor league ball before the big league team can get excited. He's an outside the top ten guy now, but with further progress in Low A, we'll be talking about a top three organizational talent next year.

Sleeper: Zach Murry

Both Helder Velazquez and Everth Cabrera received consideration for this spot, but Murry's a better blend of tools (Velazquez) and production (Cabrera). He may not have the physical package of Helder, or the current production of Cabrera, but he may have the best combination of the two. Murry has a good frame for a middle infielder at 6'0 185, and still has the typical projection of a juco guy refining his body with major league strength and conditioning off-season programs. Of the young middle infielders at Casper, Murry has been the most consistent contact-wise, though he's run hot and cold himself. The K rate (15%) hasn't been bad, and the line drive rate (16%) suggests future pop and batting average numbers, all of which will come as soon as he refines his plate discipline (5.8%). He's a good athlete that had better stolen base and power numbers in college, both of which should improve as he gains comfort at the professional level. Lastly, what makes Murry a big sleeper for prospect lists? He's a lefty hitter getting ready to reach McCormick for his first full season as a pro. He has enough tools to make progress in his own right, but a short right field porch won't hurt the counting numbers.

Organizational Risers and Sleepers: Upper Levels

David OhNo — Tue, 14 Aug 2007 04:55:47 -0000

In this first installment of a two part (four segments) series, we're going to take a look at a couple of players that have made the leap into (or in some cases, back to) prospect status, while others here have done some good things to possibly warrant consideration down the road. For the sake of uniformity, we'll describe a prospect as someone who made the Baseball America Top Thirty Rockies Prospects list this past year, so player today are ones that did not make THIS list (but may have made one in the past). In the next installment, we'll use this list to note players that are falling down this list, failing to progress on this list, or likely dropping off the list entirely. Today, though, is risers and sleepers at the higher levels. A riser will be a player whose performance has improved to the point that he'll likely find himself profiled in next season Baseball America Prospect handbook, or in more meaningful terms, has worked his way into the Rockies' future plans. The other category, the sleepers, will consist of players that have shown some solid tools or potential, but haven't put it all together yet to reach bonafide prospect status. Still, most sleepers on this list has made some type of improvement in his game rather than stalling out or even declining. I'll try to confine this to one player per category per level, but some levels simply deserve more notice...

Triple A

Riser: Jayson Nix
This season has been more of a return to glory than a breakout year for Nix. Always a solid defender capable of handling the glove at the major league level, his offensive has been surprising, and well documented by the likes of Jack Etkin. Most important to me, though, is Jayson's numbers away from Security Services Field, where he's out-hitting his home numbers with a line of .313/.359/.520 in 179 AB's. His physical stature isn't overly impressive, but he's solidly built for a second baseman and looks like he can hit for average power at the position. His speed isn't elite, and he may not be more than a 15 base stealer in the majors, but he picks his spots well and runs at a solid success rate (78%). His plate approach hasn't changed as much as he's just finding more success with the bat; the strikeout rate is acceptable (17%) as is the walk rate (8%) so long as he's slugging at a rate above average for his position. I still have concerns about his ability to hit consistently, his numbers have improved without any change in his FB or GB rates, and he has a fairly high BABIP. Still, the pop, defense, and athleticism are an intriguing package worth auditioning this September. At 26 in two weeks, he's not going to experience much further growth, so it's now or never for Nix with the Rockies. With the likes of Macri, Quintanilla, Herrera, and Wimberly all conceivably close to the bigs, the Rockies could give Nix the first run at next year's second base opening with plenty of fall back plans.

Sleeper: Joe Gaetti
Gaetti stands a good chance of reaching 20 home runs this season, three more than last season, despite not being used on an everyday basis. Gaetti's AAA numbers are deceiving, as he's struggling on the road, but his offensive profile has been solid up to the AAA level, so I have few doubts he'll hit on the road in short time. Gaetti has an uppercut swing that gets a little long and can lead to higher strikeout totals, but also leads to plenty of doubles and homers in the alleys. He's shown proficiency at all three outfield positions, but doesn't stand out in any, and should he have to play everyday, he'd be best fit for left field. Gaetti's age makes him a tough call as a prospect, but he has value to a major league club as a fourth or fifth outfielder that crushes lefties and can spell any outfielder for a stretch (sound familiar?). A Jason Michaels type that doesn't currently have a role on the big league club, but could if the team had to move Spilborghs to full-time duty for some reason.

Double A

Riser: Matt Macri

(Note, Macri has since been moved to Triple A) Another player likely to find his way back into good graces, Macri could have been considered for the sleeper pick because it seems as if few have noticed his breakout. On one hand, Macri has been old for AA, but on the other, he's not had the chance to prove competency thanks to a series of injuries. This year, Macri has finally started to tap into his power potential, upping his FB% (until an august dip) and improving his ISO to .200+. That type of power will play anywhere left of first base in the infield, but would look really good at second. Macri would be on the tall side for a second baseman, and his actions have looked a little mechanical this season., but he's long had the range to handle short, and he could cut down on his throwing miscues with a shorter distance (though he has plenty of arm strength for short or third). Macri has a short compact stroke with a slight uppercut, so while he's squared up more balls this season, his strikeout rate has been a little high (possibly the result of chasing pitches out of the zone). Macri's best role may come as an infield Spilborghs, filling in at all four infield spots with good pop and average defense. He's a cross between Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu, ironic in that he could reach the majors in the same fashion as Uggla unless the Rockies make room for Macri on the 40 man roster soon.

Sleeper: Steven Register
Register has always seemed on the cusp of making "the list," but thanks to superior pitchers and his own inconsistencies, he's failed to make a dent in the Handbook. Moved to the bullpen this season because he was too hittable as a starter, batters are still finding some success with him in the pen, but he's been able to up the velocity on his fastball while adding some additional strikeouts (7.41 K/9). Register sits solidly at 93 mph as a reliever, with average life, but he hides the ball well in his delivery. The calling card is still his sharp slider, but it doesn't miss as many bats as you'd like in a late inning reliever, and is instead used to get ground outs ( 51%). Though I was in attendance for one of his memorable blown saves off a homer to left center, Register has cut his homer rate by two thirds, down to roughly .5/9 with only three surrendered this season. The big question with Register rests with his BABIP, which is up over .350 this season. In the majors, we could just chalk this up to poor luck, but it isn't that easy in the minors. It could just be that Register is hittable, and may not be able to take his act to the big show. It's doubtful AAA will help uncover this truth, but if Register can correct his BABIP, he has upside as a middle reliever capable of getting key grounders with good command (3.00 K/BB) and a strikeout potential. Think Brad Hennessey.