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From perfection to perdition.  From the best to the all-time worst.  From a season of unending highs to a season of incessant lows.

And yet that doesn't even begin to describe how bad this past season was for Brad Lidge.  The Phillies' vaunted closer, who was literally (not figuratively) perfect in 2008, literally (not figuratively) posted the worst relief season of all time in 2009.

There are way too many ways to demonstrate the horror that was Brad Lidge's season, but here are just a few for your enjoyment:

• Lidge pitched in the 9th inning in 62 games and gave up 48 runs and 99 base runners.
• Lidge's OPS against with men on base was 1.025 and with men in scoring position was 1.017.
• He had a -4.54 win probability added.  Compare that to his +5.37 last year.
• As is obvious given how poorly he pitched, compared to 2008, he walked more batters, struck out less, gave up more hits, allowed more home runs, had a higher BABIP, and left fewer men on base.

Basically, there was nothing good about 2009 for Brad Lidge.  Even his slight resurgence in the playoffs was ruined by his blowing Game 4 of the World Series after the Phillies had tied it up in the 8th and looked to finally have some momentum against the Yankees.

Unlike 2008 when the Phillies won the World Series in large part because of Brad Lidge, in 2009 the Phillies made it as far as they did despite Brad Lidge.

And yet we've got him for another 2 years at $11.5M each year with a $12.5M club option (with $1.5M buyout) in 2012.  So the Phillies have to hope Lidge can turn it around and be somewhere closer to 2008 and nowhere near 2009.

Early projections are favorable.  Bill James projects Lidge to have a drastic turnaround in 2010 to a 3.40 ERA  and 1.32 WHIP.  And ZIPS isn't as favorable, but still sees a rebound to a 4.29 ERA.

Phillies fans have to believe that there's some truth in the James' and ZIPS' forecasts if for no other reason than that dead cats bounce.  Because another year like 2009 will tear out our hearts and darken our souls.  And we just can't take that again from this silly game of baseball.

Ruben Amaro Jr. is reportedly so content with the offense that Ben Francisco and Greg Dobbs can provide off the bench next year that he thinks that the Phillies should focus on defense with their other bench positions.  Here's the Inquirer's introductory take on the matter:

The Phillies will emphasize defense when working to improve their bench this off-season, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said yesterday.

While the team would love to add part-time players who can hit for batting average and power, they will "err on getting defense over offense," Amaro said.

Amaro is wrong here for two reasons that can be encapsulated with the following numbers:  .630 and .447.

First, Amaro is wrong because the Phillies as a team had an awful .186/.284/.346 triple slash line and .630 OPS last year when pinch hitting.  That .630 OPS was 12th in the NL.  Their .186 batting average when pinch hitting was 15th in the NL.  This is awful production from the bench, especially given that the bench usually comes into play in important game situations.

Second, the Phillies were 8-16 in interleague play last year (when you add in the World Series) and have a .447 overall winning record against the AL since interleague play has begun (including World Series appearances).  As was quite clear in the World Series, the Phillies suffered with the DH at Yankee Stadium and Hideki Matsui being the main pinch hit threat at Citizens Bank Park.  With a bench that's weak offensively, the Phillies will not eliminate their NL East disadvantage in interleague play or give themselves more options if they reach the World Series again.

Both of these reasons indicate the Amaro is foolish to emphasize defense over offense in his quest to fill out the bench this off-season.

But, there is one possible way that I could be less angry with this decision.  In filling the third base spot, as PhillyFriar has noted over the past week, there are players available by free agency or trade who might be offensive assets but defensive liabilities.  If Amaro were to pursue one of those players, it might be worth backing him up with a more defense-oriented infielder who can sub for the new third baseman when appropriate.

However, even this possibility would explain just one position.  Even if that were to come to pass, the Phillies need more offense off the bench.  Focusing on defense is wrong.

The World Series is over, and the results of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest are in.  Congratulations to ScottAZ for getting 6 points in the context.  FuquaManuel tied ScottAZ, but as the rules state, I did a random drawing and ScottAZ won.  I'll be contacting ScottAZ shortly about the prize.

Here are the answers to each question asked in the contest.

1. Cliff Lee wins:  2
   
2. Ryan Howard home runs:  1
   
3. Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins stolen bases (combined total):  3
   
4. Eric Bruntlett plate appearances:  1
   
5. Phillies starting pitcher innings not by Cliff Lee or Pedro Martinez:  10.3
   
6. Brett Myers innings pitched:  1
   
7. Jimmy Rollins walks:  5
   
8. Brad Lidge saves:  0
   
9. Alex Rodriguez hits with runners in scoring position:  2
   
10. Mariano Rivera runs allowed:  0
    
11. World Series outcome (victor and # of games):  Yankees in 6

A couple of entries are worth noting.  Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 had 5 points, the highest point total for an entry not guessing the correct outcome of the Series.  (Both ScottAZ and FuquaManuel guessed Yankees in 6, which was worth 3 points.)  And Phils 2036 World CH guessed correctly that Jimmy Rollins would have 5 walks, something I consider an absurd guess and outcome!

Thanks to all for playing.  Let's do this again next October!

We're now on our second day post-World Series, and I can't fight off this nagging feeling that the championship series I just watched was, well, pretty damn boring.

Yes, it was a World Series, and with the Phillies' long record of futility, there's really no ground for complaining when the team just makes it to the post-season, let alone to the World Series.  But, in the context of a best-of-7 match for the best team in baseball, it's hard to say that this Series had much going for it.

Sure, this was the first World Series to go past 6 games since 2003.  And the Yankees won their first championship in their new stadium.  And Chase Utley tied the record for most home runs in a World Series.  And Hideki Matsui was dominant.  And Mariano Rivera was, well, Mariano Rivera.  But all of those things added in with the rest of the Series just didn't add up to anything exciting or memorable.

The best way to capture this sentiment is the following:  over the course of the six games, there were 2 lead changes.  That's it.  Even worse is that both of them occurred in drabs over the course of the middle innings.  Otherwise, once a team took the lead in this series, the other team never got ahead.  Of course, this doesn't mean that it wasn't good baseball, but it does mean that from a fan's perspective, this isn't particularly exciting baseball.

The overall series momentum also didn't provide much excitement.  The Phillies took the early 1-0 lead, but then the Yankees won 3 in a row.  Had the Phillies won their second in Game 4 instead of Game 5, the Series would have taken on a new level of excitement.  But, that's not what happened, and by the time the Phillies had 2 wins, the Yankees were heading home looking for one to clinch.  Momentum really didn't shift, and the Series ended as it seemed it would without any real surprise.

Looking at the particulars of each game confirms this, as only Game 4 had much real excitement.  Yet, even that excitement lasted only a very short period of time.  Here are each of the games re-capped, along with the mostly uni-directional win probability graphs.  I've also given each game an excitement ranking on a 1 to 10 scale, with 10 being Joe-Carter-Game-6-in-1993 exciting and 1 being a mid-August Pirates/Padres 6-2 snooze-fest:

Continue reading this post »

The Phillies faced their first elimination game in two years on Monday night and prevailed.  Can they do it again tonight?  Here are three reasons they will, and three reasons they won't:

The Good

1) Road Warriors.  The Phillies were tied with the Angels for the best road team in baseball this year.  The Phillies went 48-33, with a +70 run differential away from CBP this year.  The Phillies have played five games at Yankee Stadium so far this year, and have outscored the Yankees 22-15.  Their record at Yankee Stadium is 3-2 in those five games, but the two losses were incredibly close, one coming on a Brad Lidge blown save and another despite Pedro Martinez's gem last week.

2) Rested and ready.  Despite some criticism, Charlie Manuel's decision to keep his pitchers on normal rest could pay off huge.  Pedro Martinez, on 5 days rest, is going up against Andy Pettitte, on 3 days rest.  Martinez has always been at his best when he's on regular 4 or 5 day rest.  When he gets too much rest, 6 days or more, his game suffers.  Batters hit him better (a .070 jump in OPS on his career, about a .200 jump this year) and he gives up more runs (his ERA jumps about 1.00 on his career, about 3.00 this year).  Martinez is in his sweet spot going on 5 days rest.  On the other hand, Pettitte will be challenged on 3 days rest.  For his career, Pettitte is only slightly worse on 3 days rest compared to regular rest.  But, here's the rub -- he hasn't pitched on 3 days rest since 2006, when he was 34.  The body works differently at 37.

3) Righty power. The Phillies right-handed hitters can demolish Pettitte.  Even though Pettitte had a small reverse platoon split this year (.730 OPS for lefties, .717 for righties) and just a very small platoon split for his career (.728 OPS for righties, .711 for lefties), the Phillies righties have demolished Pettitte in the past.  It's all on the small to miniscule sample size end of the spectrum, but the results have been great.  Including the post-season, Jayson Werth has a .188/.188/750 line with 3 home runs in 16 plate appearances, Pedro Feliz has a .300/.462/.400 line in 13 plate appearances, Ben Francisco has a .400/.500/.400 line in 6 plate appearances, and Carlos Ruiz has a .500/.667/1.250 line in 6 plate appearances.  The Phillies' switch hitters have not done well but have held their own against Pettitte, with Shane Victorino posting a .375/.333/.375 line in 9 plate appearances and Jimmy Rollins a .250/.286/.400 line in 21 plate appearances.

The Bad

1) Hometown heroes.  The Yankees had the best home record in baseball, at 57-24.  Since July 1, the Yankees are even better, with a 35-10 record at home.  They'll be returning to their home crowd with a chance to win their first World Series at home since 1999.  For most franchises, that's not that long of a time between opportunities.  For Yankees fans, that's three lifetimes.

2) Lefty troubles.  It's been well documented how poorly the Phillies' lefties not named Chase Utley have performed this Series.  It gets worse when you look at how they've performed historically against Pettitte.  Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have a combined 2 singles, 8 strikeouts, and 1 walk against him in 23 career plate appearances.  Raul Ibanez has been better, but not much.  Thanks to playing most of his career in the AL, he has 25 plate appearances against Pettitte, in which he's put up a .250/.280/.417 line with 1 home run, 7 strikeouts, and no walks.

3) DH.  Shane Victorino will be a game time decision tonight.  If he's not able to make it because of his sore finger, the Phils will be forced to play Francisco in center, keep Ibanez in left, and DH either Eric Bruntlett or Matt Stairs.  Bruntlett has had a truly awful year this year, and Stairs has been a non-existent hitter since July 1 (.082/.274/.245 line for the last three months of the season).  They are a combined 0 for 10 lifetime against Pettitte.  With the DH adding Hideki Matsui to the Yankees' lineup, if the Phillies counter with Bruntlett or Stairs, they're in big trouble.

The Outcome

With six hours to go until game time, these are the important factors that could influence this game.  All in all, I think Pettitte's short rest combined with the righty dominance the Phillies have shown over him will win the day, and we'll see a Game 7 battle tomorrow night.  Here's hoping....

The Phillies are one three-game winning streak away from winning their second consecutive World Series.  The Yankees, on the flip-side, are one three-game losing streak away from losing their third World Series in the past 9 years.

Worried about the chances here?  Well, yeah, there are some statistical concerns, but nothing that's unprecedented, certainly not for the two teams that are squaring off.

This year, the Phillies had 12 winning streaks of 3 games or more.  In fact, 57 of the Phillies' 92 wins, or 62%, came from winning streaks of 3 games or more.  Such hot streaks were an essential part of the Phillies' 2009 season.  And, to put the hot streaks in the same context as the Phillies' current predicament, two of them came following Phillies' losing streaks of 3 games or more.  The Phillies know how to turn the tide and start winning.

For the Phillies' opponent, the Yankees had 7 losing streaks of 3 games or more this season.  And, 4 of those 7 losing streaks came following winning streaks of 3 or more.  The Yankees clearly know how to take "momentum" and lose it completely.

So, the Phillies can pull through, as they've done it many times this season.  And the Yankees can falter as needed, since they've done it before.

Cliff Lee taking the mound tonight is a great way to start.