Lost in the hand-wringing over Roy Halladay's shoulder, Chad Qualls' gopher-itis, Jimmy Rollins' paternity-leave-gate, and the Phillies being in the basement of the NL East until yesterday is the fact that the Phillies have been playing excellent baseball over the past eighteen games.

Now, as any good baseball fan should know, eighteen games does not make a season. But, remember how much of the fanbase was ready to doom this team to eternal mediocrity (or worse!) long before the eighteenth game of the season.

And, keep in mind that records and stats from the first eighteen games of a season are much easier to isolate than the same from any other subset of eighteen games. After all, the Phillies were 8-10 after 18 games -- we knew that by looking at the standings following that game. They were batting .248 with a .641 team OPS -- something we also could easily determine by looking at the overall team stats after the 18th game. Figuring out how the team has done over the past 18 games once you're well into the season? That takes work!

Well, thankfully, I've done that work for you. And the results are quite pleasing:

Record: 12-6. This record is the second best in baseball over the last 18 games. Both the Dodgers and White Sox are 13-5. The Red Sox are also 12-6. All other teams have a worse record over their last 18 games.

Runs Scored: 86 (or 4.8 per game). The Phillies are third in the NL over the last 18 games, with the Dodgers (90) and Giants (87) scoring more. The Nationals have also scored 86 runs over this period.

Runs Against: 68 (or 3.8 per game). The Phillies are second in the NL over the last 18 games, once again behind the Dodgers (61). The Nationals are tied with the Phillies.

Run Differential: +18. As you should be able to deduce from the information above, the Phillies are second in the NL, behind the Dodgers (+29) and tied with the Nationals.

Hitters' OPS: .782. The team is hitting to the tune of a.281/.350/.432 triple-slash line. I don't have how that compares to other teams over the course of the last 18 games, but that line means the team has hit almost like the Cardinals have hit all year (.282/.347/.466), all of those numbers tops in the NL.

Pitchers' OBP against: .283. The pitchers are not allowing runners on base, as their mark over the past 18 games matches the best in baseball over the course of the season (the Nationals). It's a very good thing that the Phillies are not allowing runners on base because they are allowing a lot of extra base hits, as opponents' isolated power over the last 18 games is a whopping .197 (which would be the worst in the majors this season).

The Phillies have been playing excellent baseball recently. Of course, they've been doing it completely without their best hitter (Chase Utley) and their biggest power threat (Ryan Howard). They've also been doing it with very little contribution from their star leadoff hitter (.588 OPS for Jimmy Rollins over this stretch) and a decidedly mediocre performance from their best pitcher (14 earned runs over 27 innings for Roy Halladay and a 1-3 team record in games he pitched).

The thing is, if you look just at the standings or decided how good this team is solely based on its early season results, you might not have noticed.

Unfortunately, the team hasn't released an official transcript of last night's fight between Cliff Lee and Shane Victorino. So, we'll just have to do our best.

Below, share with us your unofficial lip reading of last night's confrontation. Don't hold back - it can't be any worse than lip reading Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, or Barack Obama.

Chooch. We love the man.

We love his ice cream. We love his vice-presidential campaign. We love his commanding us to obey.

We love his World Series Game 3 winning swinging bunts. We love his being thrown out of the game for daring to talk to an umpire. We love his catching Roy Halladay's perfect game and no-hitter.

What's not to love?

On a Thursday where we have to wait an extra hour for Phillies baseball (damn you central time), let's get your creative juices flowing. Inspired by the hit craze from a few years back (described below), contribute your six word appreciation of Chooch below. The entry with the most recs wins TGP bloglord status for 5 seconds on January 12, 2018. For realz.

Deceptively simple and surprisingly addictive, Not Quite What I Was Planning is a thousand glimpses of humanity—six words at a time.

One Life. Six Words. What's Yours?

When Hemingway famously wrote, "For Sale: baby shoes, never worn," he proved that an entire story can be told using a half dozen words. When the online storytelling magazine SMITH asked readers to submit six-word memoirs, they proved a whole, real life can be told this way too. The results are fascinating, hilarious, shocking, and moving.

From small sagas of bittersweet romance ("Found true love, married someone else") to proud achievements and stinging regrets ("After Harvard, had baby with crackhead"), these terse true tales relate the diversity of human experience in tasty bite-sized pieces. From authors Jonathan Lethem and Richard Ford to comedians Stephen Colbert and Amy Sedaris, to ordinary folks around the world, everyone has a six-word story to tell.

All hail Chooch!

The talk of the day is that the Phillies are in trouble because they're a) facing a tough stretch of their schedule and b) can't beat good teams. The first part is certainly true, as the Phils are facing the Nationals, Cardinals, Mets, Marlins, Dodgers, and Orioles over the next 20 games. Those are all teams that have won more games than they have lost so far.

But, the second part of this isn't true. The Phillies can beat good teams. They just haven't beaten the Mets this year.

So far, the Phils have played 18 games against teams with winning records. In those 18 games, they've won only 7. A 7-11 record is not a good track record against winning teams.

But, take out the 6 games against the Mets, in which the Phillies are 1-5, and the Phils are 6-6. Break it down further, and you see the Phils are 1-2 against the Giants, who presently sit at 21-20 for the season. Sure, mathematically they're a winning team right now, but really only because they've played an odd number of games.

That leaves us with 9 games against the Marlins, Braves, and Nationals, all leading the Phillies in the NL East. Against those teams, the Phillies have in fact won - they're 5-4. The Phils have outscored those teams 46-39.

I'm no idiot. I know I'm being selective here and removing numbers that work against the narrative I want to tell. But that's pretty much the point here. The season is still incredibly young, and there's no story you can tell with the limited numbers so far.

We do know that, contrary to the story being told, the Phillies can beat and have beaten good teams. They just haven't done that against the Mets (which means nothing about what they'll do against them next week).

At this point in the season, I'm not sure there's anything more interesting to say on this topic than that.

Any idea which NL team is now 7th in runs scored? How about 8th in OPS?

Or let's try another tack. How about which NL team is 3rd in runs scored in the month of May? Or 4th in OPS for the month?

A hint: this team is doing that well in offensive stats despite missing its Hall-of-Fame quality second baseman and its slugging first baseman.

I know, you're smart, so you guessed it - it's the Phillies! Yes, the team that struggled mightily in the first month of the season is, whaddayaknow, coming out of its offensive slump. It's scoring runs and making games interesting. The team's completely unsolvable problem in April - an offense that can't score runs - is no longer the problem.

Of course, over the past few weeks, it's the bullpen that's been giving away wins, but despite that, the team is now playing good ball, posting an above-.500 record and sitting only 4 games back from the NL East leader.

I'm not that surprised about this. As readers of this blog are aware, I've been kind of relentlessly optimistic (even while admitting that many games have been painful to watch and enjoy). I've felt this way despite being bombarded in the press, on the radio, on other blogs, and throughout the social-media-verse with naysayers and sky-is-falling types. I'm kind of sick of it, especially now that the team is doing better.

But here's a deal I'll offer you, all the end-is-nigh people (and something I think the Phillies should take seriously): When the Phillies make it to their sixth straight post-season this October, you're not invited to Citizens Bank Park. It'll be like the Nationals' restriction for Phillies games in DC, except rather than being based on where you live, it'll be based on your calls to WIP, your tweets, your Facebook statuses, your blog posts, and your conversations with friends at the bar.

Expressing concern and doubt, that's fine. But, throwing the team to the wolves, saying that there's just no joy in watching or following this team, complaining that all is lost when the season was barely 1/4 completed -- stay home and watch on TV. You're not welcome at the park. That's for true believers.

So go ahead and revel in your misery. And hey, if I'm wrong and there's no October baseball for this franchise, enjoy being right. I know that'll make you feel really good. But, when the Phils are playing in the post-season and I'm at the stadium, I want to be there with the other people who believed in and supported this team.

Phillies box office - make it happen.

I'll say it very clearly - despite the hated Braves winning last night, despite Chipper I-feed-the-hungry-play-chess-donate-my-paycheck-and-impregnate-Hooters-waitresses-while-sticking-by-my-wife-beating-manager Jones hitting the walk-off home run, despite Roy Halladay melting down (literally?), despite Chooch's career night going to waste, and despite Cholly's by-the-book bullpen management once again looking foolish, last night's game was wildly entertaining and almost everything you want from a baseball game on May 2.

Of course, the "almost" in that sentence is because the Phillies didn't win. But, other than that (and I'm not using that in the Mrs. Lincoln sense), last night's was a wonderful baseball game.

Why? Well, Talking Chop runs down some of the numerical absurdities from the game, of course focusing more on the positives for the Braves. But even those should be appreciated by a Phillies fan today. There were lead changes, there were big home runs, there was small ball, there were heroes performing while others choked, there were completely used up lineup cards, and there was even a moment when I was wishing the team still had Wilson Valdez. All in all, watching last night's game was three hours (I missed the first few innings) of my life well spent.

Baseball is usually a pretty orderly game. Most final scores are within a pretty predictable range, and most games follow a pretty predictable pattern. Sure, we don't know what will happen in any given moment, but the arc of a game is usually something we can associate with hundreds of other games we've watched in the past. After all, there's a reason Fangraphs can do what it does with win probability given a score, inning, and number of outs.

But then occasionally it's different. Occasionally it's a wild ride filled with the completely unpredictable. Occasionally you get Mitch Williams driving in a run at 4 in the morning. Or the aforementioned Wilson Valdez shutting down the side to be the winning pitcher in the 19th inning. Or Bobby Dernier hitting an extra innings walk-off inside-the-park three-run home run in a meaningless game in a meaningless season. These are the games that you remember. Sure, it helps when the Phillies win, but in the end, I'm not sure that matters when you get to enjoy something like last night.

Two things are key to enjoying last night's game. First, the date. Not all wild games in which the Phillies score in the teens yet lose are this entertaining. A game like this on May 3 is utterly enjoyable. A game like this on October 20 is horrifically heart-breaking, even if some uncommitted baseball observer might react saying, "that was fun to watch." (Damn you Mitch Williams and Larry Andersen!) And yes, a loss in May counts just as much in the standings as a loss in September, but I just can't care as much about an individual loss now. It's a blip that can be overcome at this point. A loss in September might not be.

Second, the way the Phillies have played so far this year. I've been one of the most optimistic bloggers on this site about the season so far, but I have no qualms admitting that the team has been boring to watch for much of the year. The pitchers have often been dominant and enjoyable to watch, but the offensive slumber has been, well, slumber-inducing. Take Sunday's game - a beautiful Sunday afternoon for baseball with the park filled for the Phanatic's birthday, but it was a horrendously boring game that no one seemed to enjoy. Last night's game was different. The team hit, the team scored, the team rallied from behind, the team overcame crushing comebacks by the other team. If you were watching the game alone in your living room, I know that you, like me, let out several audible exclamations throughout the game. This was, unlike most of the baseball the Phillies have played this year, exciting, fun, and entertaining.

So yes, I'll admit that when Chipper hit that home run last night, I was upset. But that passed very quickly when I realized just how damn entertaining and special the game was last night. Baseball, the wonderful sport that it is, gives you that sometimes.

Continue reading this post »

It's very easy for a Phillies fan to hate Chipper Jones. After all, over the course of his 19 year professional baseball career with the Atlanta Braves, he has absolutely murdered the Phillies. In his 969 plate appearances against the Phillies, his triple slash line is .332/.444/.598, good for an amazing 1.042 OPS. For Chipper's entire career, that's his highest OPS against an NL team (faring better against only two AL teams - a 1.239 OPS+ against the Rays (in 93 plate appearances) and a 1.369 OPS+ against the Twins (28 plate appearances)).

As if that isn't enough, his public persona is one that is despicable. We've chronicled and lambasted it enough throughout the years here on The Good Phight - his adultery, his forever being linked with a wife beater, his throwing teammates under a bus, his whining about injuries, his whining about umpires, his constant injuries, his naming his daughter something absurd, his looking like someone who enjoys the Tomahawk Chop too much, and his being a 40 year old man who still calls himself Chipper.

He's a loathsome public individual. We know that already. Everyone knows that.

But in his final year, maybe it's time to take a step back and appreciate Chipper Jones in a way that we haven't before. Sometimes, you just have to be a better human being than you normally are, and today, I'll try. So below you'll find my take on appreciating Larry "Chipper" Jones:

Hustle: Chipper Jones hustles, and we rarely appreciate it. Probably the most momentous display of his hustle came in December 2008. Chipper had spent a Saturday afternoon with his daughter Shea and was heading to Bobby Cox's house, where Chipper was going to leave Shea for the evening. Chipper looked at his watch, saw that it was 7:25, did some quick math, and realized that if he didn't hustle, he would miss his 7:45 reservations. He drove just a bit quicker, sprinted up the driveway at the Cox residence, left Shea with "Uncle Bobby" without giving her a kiss goodbye, and made it to Hooters with a minute to spare. That's hustle!

The Little Things: During flights to away games, on off-days, and during the off-season, Chipper Jones has long dabbled in the world of nano-technology. Nano-technology is the manipulation of matter at the molecular level. This amazing field of science has broad applications in medicine, electronics, energy, computing, and a host of other fields. Chipper's gifts, both mental and physical, combine to make him a perfect nano-scientist. His rare fine motor skills combined with an IQ that has been measured in the 170 range has lead to surprising developments in the field. His creative thinking will also impact society in the future. After all, the idea to use nanotechnology to build the fabled space elevator? All Chipper's.

Plays the Game Right: Chipper Jones is a master chess player. While not quite the level of a Bobby Fischer or Garry Kasparov, Chipper regularly advances deep into international competitions. When looking back on his chess playing days, Chipper points to his great accomplishments, such as being the first professional athlete to master the art of casting, playing and winning against twenty 8 year olds simultaneously, and even once beating Deep Blue. When asked why Chipper is so successful at chess, an internationally acclaimed coach (who did not want to be identified) responded, "he plays the game the right way."

Grit: When he's too injured to play baseball, Chipper Jones delivers meals to the hungriest of the hungry. He regularly boards planes to the poorest countries of the world and seeks out the slums facing the most devastating forms of hunger. In those areas, he finds the weakest individuals, those struggling with food shortages in ways we could never comprehend. Chipper actually delivers the meals to these individuals himself. He's not afraid to roll up his sleeves and get his hands dirty, all for the sake of his fellow human beings. If he comes home with dirt and scratches on his face from all of his hard work and long hours, he is known to tell his teammates "this is the price you pay for feeding the hungry and helping advance good in the world." His teammates, knowing only the language of baseball, look at him in awe and utter in unison: "That's grit."

Determination: Ever concerned about the quality of umpiring in the majors as well as the lack of commitment from younger players who refuse to play through injuries, Chipper Jones was determined to make a difference. Just this off-season, after battling through the bureaucracy of the players' and umpires' union, he prevailed and created the Chipper Jones Institute for Quality Umpiring and Injury Ignoring. When no one initially signed up to participate in the inaugural season of the Institute, Chipper personally stalked 18 umpires and 53 major leaguers, using text messaging, Facebook, Twitter, and personal visits at their favorite strip clubs to get their attention. He ultimately convinced them all to attend the Institute, where he himself lectured them for 10 days straight (10 hours per day) about the right way to call a game and play through injuries.

Always Gives 110%: Chipper Jones has never taken home a penny of the money he earns from baseball. In fact, he doesn't just donate 100% of his salary to charity - he donates 110% of it. In a famous quote from a 2007 biographical mini-series about Chipper's life that aired on the History Channel, he stated: "Why should I be blessed with the luxuries of the modern world when others suffer so deeply? Sure, I could give just 100% of my salary to charity, but would that really be doing enough? As ballplayers, we are trained to give 110%, so that's what I do."

Class: There is nothing of greater importance to the good folks of Atlanta, Georgia and the fans of the Atlanta Braves than class. And Chipper Jones has never missed a class for anything. Growing up in Florida, Chipper Jones was famous for attending every single class from pre-school through 12th grade. When he entered the amateur draft as a senior in 1990, it was a tough decision, as he realized it would take away from him going to college and attending even more class. But life as a professional ballplayer gave him opportunities to attend class still. At newbie class, both for the MLB and the Braves, Chipper showed up on time and never missed a day. When rehabbing all of his injuries, he never missed a rehab session. Why? Because he treated it like class. He loves class so much, in retirement he's looking forward to getting his college degree, a masters, a Ph.D., and several post-doctoral degrees as well . . . all so he can attend more classes.

It's clear all of the Chipper Jones haters have been wrong, very wrong. The man is great, and we have ignored his greatness for too long. I'm glad I've finally, in the last year we'll have to face him as a Brave, set the world straight on this point.

We are a spoiled fanbase.

The Phillies just finished the month of April one game under .500 - 11 wins against 12 losses. That record puts the Phils 3.5 games behind the NL East leading Washington Nationals and 5 games behind the NL leading Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Phillies have played just-under .500 ball without their best hitter (Chase Utley), without their best power threat (Ryan Howard), and with one of their ace starting pitchers injured for half the month (Cliff Lee). On top of that, their hitters have slumped all at one time. However, the offense has improved of late, averaging 4.7 runs per game for the last 7 games (a full 2 runs more than the 2.7 runs per game average over the first 16 games).

In other words, despite having a massive offensive slump, the team didn't dig itself a huge hole in the standings while it brought itself much closer to the return of its three big contributors -- Howard, Utley, and Lee. That's a good April given the circumstances.

But if you go by much of the fanbase, whether it's columns in most newspapers, rantings on the radio, absurdities in the blogosphere, or even the mood at the ballpark, this team is dead in the water, and there's no use caring much at this point.

In some ways, this is understandable. After all, this fanbase isn't used to losing. (It still amazes me to write that about the Philadelphia Phillies.) And now, the team is losing (albeit not at all proportionate to the attitude of the fanbase). Thus, people are disconsolate.

There's really no reason to be, though. As noted above, this team is not at all out of the "race" for the NL East crown, as it's just 3.5 games back. Impact players are returning. Even without them, the team is showing signs of awakening from its offensive slumber.

And, most importantly, good teams have losing months. We aren't used to this, as the Phillies haven't had a losing month since June 2009. That's 15 straight winning months for the franchise (counting March and April as one, as well as September and October as one). Going back to the start of the 2007 season, before this past month, the Phillies have had only three losing months -- April 2007, June 2008, and June 2009. That's 27 winning months out of 30, an incredible record over the past 5 years. So it's understandable that the fanbase is upset to see a losing month -- it's not used to them.

But there's just no reason for alarm. Winning teams have losing months. If you have any memory of the Phillies' recent successes, you'll note that their two most recent losing months came in the years they went to the World Series - 2008 and 2009. A losing record for a month does not doom a team to October tee times.

In fact, of the last 8 World Series teams, all but one had at least one losing month (month record in parentheses):

2008 Rays: September (13-14)
2008 Phillies: June (12-14)
2009 Yankees: none
2009 Phillies: June (11-15)
2010 Rangers: April (11-12), August, (13-15)
2010 Giants: June (13-14), August (13-15)
2011 Rangers: May (13-15)
2011 Cardinals: June (11-15)

In fact, the 2010 World Series Champion San Francisco Giants not only had two losing months but also another month in which they played .500 baseball, as they went 14-14 in May of that year.

There's no denying that the 2012 Phillies have been difficult to watch at times. But let's not doom the team to futility just yet. They had a losing month . . . by 1 game . . . without two and a half of their most impactful players . . . with the rest of their offense slumping most of the time . . . and they're only 3.5 games back.

In that light, I think I'll consider this a really successful month.

The Phillies have scored 37 runs in 13 games. They have walked only 22 times and have just one more extra base hit. The team that used to be known for its power has only 6 home runs. The team that used to be known for reasonable patience at the plate makes us long for Ryan Howard's plate approach. This offense is bad, really bad.

But is the offense as bad as it seems? Well, yes, it is. If the Phillies keep this up, they'd have the worst offense in the history of the modern era in baseball.

Right now, the Phillies are averaging 2.85 runs per game. Since 1961, when baseball expanded to a 162 game schedule, no team has scored less than 2.86 runs per game. The dubious record for worst offense since 1961 goes to the 1968 Chicago White Sox, who scored 463 runs over the course of a 162 game season.

The fourteen worst teams, sorted by runs per game, are all from 1972 or earlier. To find a team of more modern vintage with such a putrid offense, we have to go to the 15th worst offense, brought to us by the 1981 Toronto Blue Jays, who averaged 3.10 runs per game. Of course, thanks to the baseball strike, they didn't play a full season (only 106 games). So if we truly want to find a post-1972 team that ranks with the worst, we have to look to the 20th worst modern team, the 2010 Seattle Mariners. They played a full 162 game season and scored only 513 runs, good for a 3.17 average. Even that, compared to the 2012 Phillies, sounds pretty good though.

If average runs don't suit your fancy, then how about comparing the Phils' on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS to teams in the past? Well, they look pretty putrid there too.

The Phillies have a .280 on-base percentage this year. Of the 1326 team years since 1961, only two have had an on-base percentage worse than .280, and both have been before 1973. The 1965 and 1968 New York Mets had OBPs of .273 and .277, respectively. Of more recent vintage, the closest in the worst-OPS contest are, again, the 1981 Blue Jays (.284, ranked 10th worst), the 1976 Montreal Expos (.291, ranked 23rd worst), and the 2011 Mariners (.292, ranked 29th worst).

With slugging percentage, the Phillies' current .325 looks slightly better. Since 1961, 14 teams have been worse, with the worst being the 1972 Texas Rangers, at a ridiculously paltry .290. However, none of the teams worse than the Phillies' current SLG played after 1972. To find the worst post-1972 team, you have to look to the 1986 St. Louis Cardinals, with a .327 SLG. But think about that for a second - a team that had 262 stolen bases (3rd highest total since 1961), including a now-unimaginable 107 from Vince Coleman, had a better slugging percentage than the current Phils.

Of course, with the components being so terrible, it should come as no surprise that the Phils' current .605 OPS ranks among the worst ever. Eight teams since 1961 have been worse than the current Phils - with the 1972 Texas Rangers "leading" the way at .579. Of course, all of the teams worse than the Phils are from 1972 or earlier. The 17th-ranked 1981 Blue Jays are the worst team from 1973 forward, with a .614 OPS.

Thankfully, there's one huge difference between all of these teams and the current Phillies' offense. All of these historically-awful teams played a full season. The current Phillies have played just 13 games.

(And they also have the 2012 Pirates' offense performing even worse in every category - 2.17 runs per game, .205/.252/.287 triple slash line for a .540 OPS. This would truly be the worst modern offense . . . by a huge margin.)

After last night's amazing Cliff Lee performance followed by a miserable Charlie Manuel and Ty Wigginton performance, how about we get over our doldrums with a Thursday morning Phillies quiz. First place prize is the opportunity to be the Phillies late-inning pinch hitter facing left-handed pitching. Good luck all!

1. Cliff Lee’s reaction to last night:
A) Charlie should have let me hit.
B) Damn offense!
C) Wigginton at third in extra innings. Seriously?
D) Whatever.

2. When he’s "on," he’s the most enjoyable to watch:
A) Cliff Lee
B) Roy Halladay
C) Cole Hamels
D) Michael Stutes (*dreamy*)

3. The three aces are spending Thursday:
A) Texting Ryan Howard and Chase Utley: "get well soon!"
B) Taking extra batting practice because they’re just going to have to take measures into their own hands
C) Giving the hitters pep talks about excellence and preparation
D) Contacting their agents about trades to teams with real offenses

4. Jim Thome:
A) Just needs more at-bats to get on track
B) Should never pinch hit against a lefty
C) Could play better third base than Ty Wigginton
D) Is done

5. Charlie Manuel:
A) Needs a better bench coach to help him through situations like last night
B) Is human and makes mistakes
C) Lucked into being the winningest manager in Phillies history
D) Can’t be trusted to manage past midnight EDT

6. The Giants:
A) Have just as great a pitching staff as the Phillies
B) Have just as awful an offense as the Phillies
C) Have just as beautiful a home ballpark as the Phillies
D) Don’t have Ryan Howard and Chase Utley coming off the disabled list (hopefully) soon

7. All the pre-season worriers and naysayers:
A) Were right - this team has no offense and we knew it from the start
B) Have infected the team and its management
C) Have created a buzzkill atmosphere at CBP and among the fanbase
D) Don’t understand the concept of "small sample size"

Roy Halladay pitched eight innings giving up two hits to the first two batters, and the final score was 1-0.

Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Does it signal six months of excitement or presage six months of agony? Is it a predictor of a team that is ready to once again compete for a championship or is it a reason to question the fundamental nature of a franchise? Does it cause you to spend the next 48 hours elated about your team or is it the basis for spending the next 48 hours staring blankly into the vast unknown because baseball has once again ripped your heart out, thrown it on the floor, and stomped on it with sharpened metal cleats?

Roy Halladay pitched eight innings giving up two hits to the first two batters, and the final score was 1-0.

Can this mean all of the things listed above at the same time . . . and yet mean absolutely nothing? Can this just be evidence that the universe is random, and that any meaning we try to attach to things is often just a fools errand?

The Phillies lost their last game in 2011 in the exact same way they won their first game of 2012. Roy Halladay took the mound and pitched eight innings. He did exactly what he was supposed to do, in giving his team a chance to win by limiting the other team scoring. In the course of doing this, he gave up two hits to start the game. After that, though, he shut the team down. There were close calls, the top of the 8th in Game 5 and the Mayberry spectacular catches yesterday, but after those two hits, on both days Halladay blanked the other team.

In both games, 1 run was scored. Shane Victorino slightly misjudges the bounce off the wall and Rafael Furcal is now dancing on third base to start Game 5 rather than second; Halladay is distracted, gives up another double, and the run scores. Yesterday, Ty Wigginton somehow tags up on a medium fly ball and beats the throw to the plate yesterday, and the run scores.

In both games, no other runs are scored. Yesterday, the Pirates are the victim of a tough double-play in the first inning, so the runner on third can't tag up when the next batter flies out to end the inning. In Game 5, with men on first and third, Raul Ibanez just gets under the ball in the fourth inning, so the inning ends in a fly-out rather than a run-scoring double (or more). The Pirates can't catch a break with Mayberry's sensational fielding. The Phillies can't catch a break with the usually-reliable-on-the-basepaths Utley being caught stealing.

Roy Halladay pitched eight innings giving up two hits to the first two batters, and the final score was 1-0.

Baseball can be a cruel sport. As fans, we have to recognize that cruelty and resist letting the game chew us up and spit us out. Indeed, we need to enjoy and celebrate the wins. But maybe those losses, those cruel season-ending losses, don't mean much more than that someone has to win, and someone has to lose.

As the excitement of the start of the season builds and builds, I e-sat down with Charlie Wilmoth of sister SB Nation baseball blog Bucs Dugout to talk about the two teams. You can read my answers to his questions about the Phillies here. Below, check out Charlie's answers to my five most burning questions about the Pittsburgh Pirates.

1) Will the losing season streak reach 20 this year?

Yes. Are you mocking me?

2) I've never been to PNC Park, but when I watch games played there on TV, I just want to move to Pittsburgh and spend every day of my life watching baseball at that ballpark. It's beautiful (at least on television). Is it that amazing in real life?

Continue reading this post »

Somehow I missed this song two years ago. But who really cares that I'm late to the party. The song's perfect for today.

The chorus: "Who's gonna win 30 games? / Doc Halladay"

And more: "I know the odds against are about a million to one
That even a pitcher like Halladay could get this done
He'd have to win just about every start
Half in that hitter's paradise, CB Park
But the Phils can beat you in so many ways
Power and speed and great defensive plays"

For Opening Day 2012 - enjoy!

On Friday, I was feeling confident about the Phillies and firmly believed that, even if there were problems with this team right now, we as fans, as Phillies fans in particular, had no reason to complain. But boy was I wrong. Monumentally and catastrophically wrong.

Did you see the news from yesterday? Not only did Juan Pierre make the team, but Charlie Manuel is committed to giving him as many plate appearances as he can. Once I saw that and started thinking about what this means, I realized everything the Phillies have going for them this year is built on a house of cards. It's over folks. We have nothing to look forward to this year other than gloom and doom.

To the me who wrote Friday's post (and anyone who agreed with me), I have only one thing to say - are you fucking kidding me?

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As a Phillies fan, these are the best of times. These are not the worst of times. Not even close. Thinking otherwise requires either an incredible lack of perspective or a sense of entitlement that no sports fan anywhere in the country (even a Yankees, Lakers, or Patriots fan) should have.

If you judged by the collective sense of the Phillies fanbase this March, the franchise is doomed. Ryan Howard, who clearly couldn't even hit when healthy (as we witnessed on the last two team at-bats of the past two seasons), will never recover his power (and he's at the start of his $25M per year contract). Chase Utley, if he ever plays again, will be lucky to be as good as Wilson Valdez if he returns. Jimmy Rollins is not getting any younger. Placido Polanco can't hit and only sporadically graces the lineup with his presence. Our outfield is either too unproven or is just one year away from leaving the team (minus the great savior, Hunter Pence, of course). Our bullpen is shaky and injured. And we only have three aces, godammit! We'll be watching the team lose games 2-1 or 1-0 all year. What fun is that?

We have this sorry state of affairs despite the owners spending more money than almost every team in baseball, so we can't expect them to spend much more to patch the team up. And the minor leagues have been decimated by years of plundering to obtain major league talent. The big league team is going downhill, and there's no hope in sight.

Michael Baumann over at Crashburn Alley summed up this sentiment perfectly:

I put far too much energy and emotional investment into watching and writing about baseball for this to be an acceptable state of affairs. I’m tired of being unable to think about the Phillies without being overcome with rage. It’s exhausting. I want to feel other things, like joy or empathy or excitement. Baseball used to make me feel that way. But now the Phillies are in decline, and I get the feeling there isn’t going to be anything quick, easy, painless, or unexpected about it.

I’d just as soon get it over with.

Now, I don't want to unfairly single out Michael. By all accounts he's a good guy, so I want to be clear that this isn't directed at him. It's directed at the ideas he puts forth, ideas he is not alone in having.

But here's my response - are you fucking kidding me?

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In a surprise but completely understandable announcement, Ruben Amaro told the press today that the Phillies would not use infielders in any of their remaining spring training games. "I understand it makes the games difficult for our team, but after the scare with Freddy Galvis today following everything else we've been through this spring, we can't afford to lose another infielder. Our guys will just have to make due with only 5 men on the field."

Reached for comment after Amaro's announcement, manager Charlie Manuel reluctantly admitted it was the best the team could do. "Look, at this rate, we're going to have an opening day infield of Tim Kennelly, Cesar Hernandez, Miguel Abreu, and Hector Luna. And that's only if those guys stay healthy. After them, we've got Darin Ruf, Carlos Perdomo, Troy Hanzawa, and Maikel Franco. Besides their mothers, is that what anyone wants?"

Amaro elaborated: "With Ryan Howard and Chase Utley out for the foreseeable future, our only regulars starting in the infield are Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco. Polanco's already a bit banged up, and Jimmy is in our infielder-protection program. Now with Galvis' foot hurting, and Thome on the wrong side of 40, we just can't risk their health in the remaining spring games."

Pressed for information about Rollins' "infielder-protection program," Amaro explained that the Phillies started a round-the-clock injury prevention program with Rollins. He sleeps in a straight-jacket in a bed surrounded by metal rails to prevent him from falling out. Immediately upon waking, Scott Sheridan appears at Rollins' bedside and accompanies him throughout the day. While taking batting practice, Rollins wears specially designed Barry-Bonds-esque body armor, but this version covers his entire body. During infield practice, the groundscrew combs the dirt around him before every play so that balls won't take odd bounces. All food that Rollins consumes is pre-chewed by Sheridan to prevent any risk of choking. He is mandated by the team to get at least 10 hours of sleep per night to keep him mentally healthy and well rested.

Nonetheless, even with that protection in place, Amaro felt the need to implement this drastic measure. "Fans at our spring training games may be disappointed, but we just can't risk it anymore."

Asked to give further information about how the games would actually progress without infielders, Amaro shook off reporters. "I would love to talk about this more with you, but I have to get back to trying to persuade the Reds to give back Wilson Valdez. He was our MVP last year, and I stupidly traded him for nothing. Think they'll take Dom Brown for him?"

Imagine you're Wilson Valdez. You're a decent fielder, can pitch in a clutch, but are absolutely horrendous at the plate, and will never amount to anything more than backup middle-infielder. You regularly have an OPS+ that brings back memories of disco, Nixon's impeachment, and endless lines at gas stations. In 2011, you were paid accordingly and made $560,000. Your contract was up at the end of last season, so you started negotiations for a new contract. In the process, your employer's representative, Ruben Amaro Jr., offers you a 4 year contract worth $40 million. Let's say you're intimately familiar with WAR, VORP, OPS+, and wOBA and know that the offer is way beyond what you're worth to your employer. Do you take the offer?

For everyone who answers that question "no," please consult your local classifieds for the next meeting of "Prevaricators Anonymous." For everyone else, the next question is "who's to blame for that overpriced contract, you or your employer?" Even if you were a hard-ass negotiator during the salary talks, it's still the employer who offered the asinine contract. There's just no reasonable way to blame an employee for the employer offering a ridiculous contract. Why? Because no employer has to offer a ridiculous contract. Every employer is free to just not offer it. But when the employer does, no sane employee would refuse. The $10 million per year for four year Wilson Valdez contract would be Amaro's fault, not Valdez's. Amaro would be the stupid one; Valdez would be the lucky bastard doing nothing more than what any human being would do.

Every Phillies fan should keep this hypothetical in mind this year as we watch Ryan Howard in the first year of his absurd five-year $125 million contract. By almost every measure, the contract was ludicrous. Barring a miraculous return to his 2006 form, he will be drastically overpaid this year. But any fault and vitriol you want to direct over the contract needs to be aimed at Ruben Amaro Jr., not Ryan Howard. Howard just did what any honest person in the world would have done -- he took his employer's outrageously generous offer.

With that out of the way, let's look at what Ryan Howard might give the Phillies in 2012. We know he's going to start the year on the disabled list, coming off the Achilles heel injury that ended his and the Phillies' 2011 post-season. After also ending the Phillies' 2010 post-season, Howard is going to have to perform once he returns. If he struggles to get back to form when he gets back on the field (projected to be anywhere from early May to end of June, though by the reports from spring training, the earlier is looking more likely), the fans are not going to be charitable and will quickly move to stage 6 in the "seven stages of sports star appreciation."

But if he does return to form, what will we get? Howard will be 32 this year and is coming off his third year of an OPS+ between 124 and 127 out of his last four (the outlier is 2009 when he posted a 141 OPS+). Again, in the world in which he does return to form, Howard is going to hit home runs, drive in runs, strike out a lot, walk much less than we would like him to, struggle against lefties, see a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, and heat up as the year goes on. We've been watching the guy his entire career - is it really going to be a surprise at this point? There might be some fluctuations in his BABIP, and his defense might continue to improve, but he's not suddenly going to become Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder.

If he doesn't return to form, the results could be ugly. The Achilles injury could rob him of power and further affect his ability to reach breaking pitches away as well as field his position. His increased age and seemingly-increased waistline (see photo 124 here) could start their slow but guaranteed influence on his performance. His mental approach to the game could be affected by two straight years of ending the Phillies' post-season and the resulting fan anathema that comes with the ignominy.

But, for my money, I'm going with Mr. Consistency (minus his much better 2009). And if that performance bothers you, by all means, go ahead and blame Howard for it (though don't act surprised). But, whatever you do, don't blame him for performing at the level he does at the pay he receives. For that, blame the GM.

MILWAUKEE (AP) - On the heels of the record Nielsen ratings for the Super Bowl this year, Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig announced today new post-season rules for baseball. Under the new rules, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will have the opportunity each year to face one another in the World Series.

Following the release of the Super Bowl numbers, Selig went on a rampage. "Just look at the ratings the Super Bowl received this year. Over 111 million viewers. Most watched U.S. broadcast ever. It's no coincidence that this happened with New York against New England. Do you know how many viewers watched the Cardinals play the Rangers in the World Series this year? My people tell me that at its peak there were 15 million viewers, but seriously, do you believe that? I mean, it was St. Louis against Texas for god sake!"

Selig's anger immediately turned to the structure of the baseball playoffs. In football's playoff structure, according to Selig, the behemoth and immensely popular New York team can face the now indominable and also immensely popular New England team every year in football's championship game. However, because the Yankees and the Red Sox are both American League teams, they can never face each other in the baseball championship series.

"We should have an advantage over football. We play between 4 and 7 games to determine who is the champion. They play just 1. But we're lucky if we get half of their viewership total over the entire series," Selig continued.

To facilitate the possibility of the Yankees facing the Red Sox, Selig's new playoff system would pit the two teams against one another in the World Series if they both finish in the top four spots in the American League. "I'm a Brewers fan at heart, but we know the American League is the better league and that the Yankees and Red Sox are the best franchises ever. If the Yankees and Red Sox are among the top teams in that league, it's only fair that all American advertisers, I mean viewers, get what they really want -- seeing the Yankees and Red Sox play each other for the world championship."

The other teams will go through the regular playoff structure with the winner taking home the newly created Small-World Series trophy. Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Yankees would get byes to rest up so they can put their best teams on the field for the World Series.

"Under this new system, our fans all over the country would get what they truly deserve. It's clear our old system was faulty. After all, it could result in a Detroit/San Diego World Series. Or, worse still, a Colorado/Tampa Series. Is there anything else left to be said?" Selig argued.

Fox announcers Joe Buck and Tim McCarver were thrilled and released a joint statement: "There are so many teams in Major League Baseball that have nothing interesting whatsoever in their past. Frankly, we're just making shit up half the time on the air when we have to talk about these teams. If we could just talk about the Yankees and Red Sox every year, we can't imagine anyone would protest."

Selig's announcement was greeted with overwhelming approval from the rest of the major league owners. One owner not willing to be identified stated, "What Bud Selig wants, we want. We haven't challenged him ever before, so why start now?"

The lone dissenter was Fred Wilpon, CEO of the New York Mets. In a short but emotional press conference, Wilpon didn't hold back on details. "Bud came to me with the plan expecting me to agree. He said ,'you're a New Yorker, so you must want the Yankees in the World Series too, right?' I looked at him incredulously. I said, 'Bud, you know I own a New York team, too? One that could also play the Red Sox under the current structure and get that big New York/New England market? It even happened before, including a pretty famous game in baseball history?' His response was silence, pure silence. He then looked me dead in the eye and stated, 'I can count on you, right.'"

When questioned about the meeting, Selig agreed with Wilpon's account but offered his own explanation. "They're from New York. I really thought they, like all New Yorkers, support the Yankees. Fred told me he didn't, but that's just Fred being Fred. I know he does. And what's good for baseball is definitely good for the Mets. It's not like they have anything else going on for them."

The new system takes effect immediately in 2012, with the added bonus that, in this first year under the new system, the Yankees and Red Sox will face each other in the World Series no matter what. "Our ratings will be through the roof. Take that NFL," Selig gloated.

It’s several days late, but I thought I'd do something here I've done elsewhere on the interwebs in my other life. I encourage you to join in and post your own below in the comments.

Here I’m going to give you four headlines for the upcoming year, all related to the Phillies. They fall in the bolded categories below.

Headline I’m most fearful of seeing in 2012: Cole Hamels Signs 5 Year, $100 Million Contract Extension; Suffers Dave Dravecky-esque Injury Hours Later

Headline I most want to see in 2012: Aging Phillies Roster Has Fewest Days Lost to Injury of All MLB Teams

Headline I most expect to see in 2012: Phillies Win NL East for Sixth Consecutive Year

Headline I least expect to see in 2012: New York Mets Challenge Phillies for First Place Down the Stretch

May all your Phillies dreams come true in 2012! (And all your Phillies nightmares be avoided!)

Happy New Year!

A few caveats before I get into the substance of this post.  First, I don't listen to talk radio or follow discussions on grit and hustle blogs, so if this is already out there in some other form on the airwaves or the interwebs, I apologize.  Second, this post is not at all normative (not about what I think should happen) and is entirely predictive (about what I think will happen).  These are two very different things.  Third, I have absolutely zero inside information about the Phillies (other than about their view of how many wins Gene Mauch had as a manager, and I already shared that with you).

So, with those preliminaries out of the way, let me be very clear about what I think will happen with the Phillies this off-season - they will not re-sign Jimmy Rollins and will instead sign Jose Reyes to a six-figure five- or-more-year deal.  The simple reason I believe this has nothing to do with need or what is best for the Phillies.  Rather, I think it's quite clear that one of the signature characteristics of Ruben Amaro Jr.'s reign as Phillies GM is that he goes for the splashiest acquisition he can at every opportunity.

Let's review his history with the Phillies during the two most important points during the year for acquiring major league talent - the off-season and the trade deadline.  Amaro was named the Phillies GM November 1, 2008.  He has presided over three off-seasons and three trade deadlines.  Below is a list of the biggest moves made at each of these six points in time:

2008-09 off-season: signed Raul Ibanez.

2009 trade deadline: traded for Cliff Lee.

2009-10 off-season:  traded for Roy Halladay.

2010 trade deadline: traded for Roy Oswalt.

2010-11 off-season: signed Cliff Lee.

2011 trade deadline: traded for Hunter Pence.

There's a very strong argument that, except for the 2008-09 off-season, Amaro acquired the top talent available at each of those periods in time.  There's no doubt that trading for Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt and signing Cliff Lee as a free agent were the biggest talent acquisitions for those periods in time.  Trading for Hunter Pence this past trade deadline is probably in competition with the Braves acquiring Michael Bourn, but it's a close call.

The only acquisition that was clearly not the top talent available at the time was Raul Ibanez in 2008-09.  Jason Bay, CC Sabathia, and Adrian Beltre were all available.  Ibanez was a high level talent that off-season, but he wasn't the best.

Nonetheless, I think a pattern is evident here.  Amaro likes splashy acquisitions, and his definition of splashy is to go for the brass ring.  The only clear exception was in Amaro's first year when a) he was getting his feet wet and b) his team was coming off a World Series win.

But every other time he's had the opportunity to acquire talent, he's gone for the best out there.  This is a pattern.  This is what this man does.  And, if this man's pattern holds true this off-season, we'll see Jose Reyes in a Phillies uniform next year.

Let me be clear though - Reyes is not the top free agent out there this year.  The top is undisputed - Albert Pujols.  Behind him is Prince Fielder and then probably C.C. Sabathia.  However, the Phillies are not going to acquire another first baseman, nor are they going to sign another high-priced starting pitcher.

Jose Reyes is next, and, lo and behold, the Phillies need a short stop.  Reyes is four years younger than Rollins.  He had a year in which he got on base at a clip 0.046 higher than Rollins and slugged almost .100 points higher.  Yes, he's been injury prone, but so has Rollins.  He's decidedly more of a splashy acquisition.

What's more is that Amaro is probably going to feel pressure to "shake up the team" this off-season.  I've already made clear that I don't think this is necessary, but I think Amaro is going to take that to heart and do what he's done before - add one of the top talents in baseball.

Jose Reyes, welcome to the Philadelphia Phillies.  Jimmy Rollins, sad to see you go but you're a victim of a very powerful man's ego.

That the Phillies exited the playoffs Friday night before any of us wanted doesn't change the fact that we are still in the midst of the golden era of Phillies baseball.  This year, the team won its fifth straight NL East title, which put it in the playoffs for the fifth straight season.

This is cause for celebration, especially for those of us old enough to remember 1984 through 2003 (excepting 1993, of course).  But some fans aren't celebrating.  In fact, some fans are complaining that, given five playoff appearances in a row, the Phillies should have more to show for themselves than just one World Series win.

Given that you're reading this blog, the following won't surprise you: That's nonsense.  In fact, what the Phillies have done so far during this run of playoff appearances is spectacular, and anything else they get from playoff appearances in the immediate future is just gravy.

Let's start with what the Phillies have done so far.  In their five consecutive post-season appearances, the Phillies have amassed the following record:  one World Series win, one World Series loss, one NLCS loss, and two NLDS losses.

Written that way, the post-seasons seem to have one success and four failures.  But, missing from that description are the following wins that got the team to the next round:  three NLDS wins, and two NLCS wins.  So, in essence, the Phillies have the following post-season record over the past five years:

NLDS:  3-2
NLCS: 2-1
World Series: 1-1

How do we evaluate that?  Is it all terrible considering that's just one World Series win out of five years?  If you think of baseball that way, you're going to be a miserable person who never enjoys this sport.

Rather, let's look at it a different way.  Let's postulate a hypothetical team that gets into the playoffs for eight consecutive years.  Given that eight years is a long stretch of time and a team is bound to suffer from varying levels of performance as well as numbers of injuries over that period of time, it's unreasonable to assume that the team, even a team that is this consistent, would be the best team in baseball each year of the eight.  In fact, it's reasonable to assume that the team would vary in quality each year.  For this reason, as well as because of varying home-field advantages, short series, and simplicity's sake, let's assume that the team has a 50/50 chance in each post-season series.  In this scenario, the team would perform as follows over the 8 years:

Division Series:  4-4
Championship Series:  2-2
World Series: 1-1

Now compare that record to the Phillies' record over the past five years.  The Phillies have already won the major prizes - they've won their two Championship Series, and they've won the World Series.  Compared to the hypothetical team, the Phillies, if they make the playoffs another three years in a row, have two Division Series losses, one Division Series win, and one Championship Series loss to look forward to.  Anything beyond that is gravy.

The natural response to this is that the Phillies should have a better than 50/50 chance in each series.  After all, they had the four aces this year and at least three next.  They have prime talent up the middle that most teams envy.  They have a payroll that is beginning to rival the Yankees.

This is all true, but even during this fantastic run, the Phillies have been all over the map in terms of overall record.  It's easy to remember that the team was the best in baseball in 2010 and 2011, but it's just as easy to forget that it was only fifth in 2008 and 2009 and seventh in 2007.  Expecting "best in baseball" status in 2012 through 2014 is a tall order given the vagaries of the baseball season, let alone the game itself.

So yes, the 50/50 model I'm using here is simplistic and may not be entirely accurate, but it's a pretty good model for thinking about the post-season over a long stretch of time.  (In fact, it exactly describes the Yankees' post-season fortune over their last 8 appearances (which occurred over the last 9 years since they missed the post-season in 2008).)

And given this model, what people want from the Phillies for the remainder of this excellent run is, in fact, gravy.