SB Nation User Blog: David S. Cohen

Congratulations ScottAZ -- Winner of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest

David S. Cohen — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:40:32 -0000

The World Series is over, and the results of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest are in. Congratulations to ScottAZ for getting 6 points in the context. FuquaManuel tied ScottAZ, but as the rules state, I did a random drawing and ScottAZ won. I'll be contacting ScottAZ shortly about the prize.

Here are the answers to each question asked in the contest.

Cliff Lee wins: 2
Ryan Howard home runs: 1
Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins stolen bases (combined total): 3
Eric Bruntlett plate appearances: 1
Phillies starting pitcher innings not by Cliff Lee or Pedro Martinez: 10.3
Brett Myers innings pitched: 1
Jimmy Rollins walks: 5
Brad Lidge saves: 0
Alex Rodriguez hits with runners in scoring position: 2
Mariano Rivera runs allowed: 0
World Series outcome (victor and # of games): Yankees in 6

A couple of entries are worth noting. Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 had 5 points, the highest point total for an entry not guessing the correct outcome of the Series. (Both ScottAZ and FuquaManuel guessed Yankees in 6, which was worth 3 points.) And Phils 2036 World CH guessed correctly that Jimmy Rollins would have 5 walks, something I consider an absurd guess and outcome!

Thanks to all for playing. Let's do this again next October!

Phillies Pick Up Cliff Lee's Option

David S. Cohen — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:39:55 -0000

Phillies Pick Up Cliff Lee's Option

Shocking, just shocking news! Full Zolecki tweet: "Phillies pick up Cliff Lee's option. Haven't decided on Pedro Feliz. Have until Monday to make that decision." We've got to hope Ruben Amaro Jr. makes the right call on Feliz and dumps him.

The 2009 World Series: The Boring One

David S. Cohen — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:05:34 -0000

We're now on our second day post-World Series, and I can't fight off this nagging feeling that the championship series I just watched was, well, pretty damn boring.

Yes, it was a World Series, and with the Phillies' long record of futility, there's really no ground for complaining when the team just makes it to the post-season, let alone to the World Series. But, in the context of a best-of-7 match for the best team in baseball, it's hard to say that this Series had much going for it.

Sure, this was the first World Series to go past 6 games since 2003. And the Yankees won their first championship in their new stadium. And Chase Utley tied the record for most home runs in a World Series. And Hideki Matsui was dominant. And Mariano Rivera was, well, Mariano Rivera. But all of those things added in with the rest of the Series just didn't add up to anything exciting or memorable.

The best way to capture this sentiment is the following: over the course of the six games, there were 2 lead changes. That's it. Even worse is that both of them occurred in drabs over the course of the middle innings. Otherwise, once a team took the lead in this series, the other team never got ahead. Of course, this doesn't mean that it wasn't good baseball, but it does mean that from a fan's perspective, this isn't particularly exciting baseball.

The overall series momentum also didn't provide much excitement. The Phillies took the early 1-0 lead, but then the Yankees won 3 in a row. Had the Phillies won their second in Game 4 instead of Game 5, the Series would have taken on a new level of excitement. But, that's not what happened, and by the time the Phillies had 2 wins, the Yankees were heading home looking for one to clinch. Momentum really didn't shift, and the Series ended as it seemed it would without any real surprise.

Looking at the particulars of each game confirms this, as only Game 4 had much real excitement. Yet, even that excitement lasted only a very short period of time. Here are each of the games re-capped, along with the mostly uni-directional win probability graphs. I've also given each game an excitement ranking on a 1 to 10 scale, with 10 being Joe-Carter-Game-6-in-1993 exciting and 1 being a mid-August Pirates/Padres 6-2 snooze-fest:

Game 1: Cliff Lee dominated the Yankees, holding them to one unearned run. That's a wonderful pitching performance, but it's not high drama. Chase Utley's two home runs against CC Sabathia were exciting, but the rest of the offense was dormant until the last two innings. And, at that point, the game was pretty much over. The Yankees had no chance against Lee, and the graph below shows it. The only thing going for the game on the excitement meter was that it was Game 1, which seemed like a big deal at the time. Excitement factor: 6.

via www.fangraphs.com

Game 2: One of our two lead-change games, the Phillies took an early lead, but then Pedro Martinez slowly gave it back, one run at a time, until the Yankees had a lead that Mariano Rivera protected with a 2 inning save. The lead change was exciting, as was some good pitching from Martinez and A.J. Burnett, but the drip-drip run-scoring from the Yankees along with the certitude of the Rivera save worked against this game having much excitement to it. The steady incline of the win probably graph confirms this. Excitement factor: 4.

Game 3: Here we get out second, and last, lead change of the Series. The Phillies took an early 3-0 lead behind a dominant Cole Hamels. But then it all fell apart in the middle innings, as the Yankees outscored the Phillies 8-1 over the course of innings 4 through 8. The Phillies' feeble comeback just assured another Rivera shut-down appearance in the ninth. This game was over in the fifth, and the entire stadium knew it (and the graph confirms). Excitement factor: 3.

Game 4: This was the only high-drama game of the Series. The Phillies staged a late inning comeback against Sabathia and Joba Chamberlain, who looked great in the eighth inning until Pedro Feliz shockingly tied the game with a home run. Brad Lidge entered the ninth and looked great as well, but followed Chamberlain's pattern of not being able to put away the last batter. Lidge allowed 3 in the ninth, and another Rivera appearance assured the Yankees' third win. This is the only win probably graph with much of a jagged edge. Excitement factor: 8.

Game 5: This game was over early, as the Phillies took a big lead with Cliff Lee pitching. He wasn't as sharp as Game 1, but he was pitching well enough and the offense put up enough runs that the game was not much in doubt. The Yankees did mount a bit of a comeback and made the ninth inning tense, but it was too little, too late. That ninth inning comeback rescues this game from a 1, as the virtually flatlined win probably graph would seem to merit. Excitement factor: 4.

Game 6: This was the worst of the bunch. The only thing it had going for it was that it was Hideki Matsui's 6 RBI and that it was the last game. Otherwise, the Yankees took an early lead, the Phillies' hitters couldn't hit with men on, and everyone knew Rivera was going to come in for more than 3 outs, possibly 6. He ultimately came in for 5 outs and closed the door to finish the Series, as we all knew he would. The graph below merits a 1 on the excitement scale, but the championship win boosts this game, but only slightly as it was a complete bore. Excitement factor: 2.

The average excitement factor here is 4.5 on a 10 point scale. Of course, this is an arbitrary and subjective scale, but take a look at the fangraphs collectively and note the extreme absence of much fluctuation at all. There's no two ways about it: this was a boring series.

Of course, I'd feel completely different had the Phillies won it all . . . .

Three Up, Three Down: Reasons The Phillies Will Win (or Lose) Tonight

David S. Cohen — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:12:48 -0000

The Phillies faced their first elimination game in two years on Monday night and prevailed. Can they do it again tonight? Here are three reasons they will, and three reasons they won't:

The Good

1) Road Warriors. The Phillies were tied with the Angels for the best road team in baseball this year. The Phillies went 48-33, with a +70 run differential away from CBP this year. The Phillies have played five games at Yankee Stadium so far this year, and have outscored the Yankees 22-15. Their record at Yankee Stadium is 3-2 in those five games, but the two losses were incredibly close, one coming on a Brad Lidge blown save and another despite Pedro Martinez's gem last week.

2) Rested and ready. Despite some criticism, Charlie Manuel's decision to keep his pitchers on normal rest could pay off huge. Pedro Martinez, on 5 days rest, is going up against Andy Pettitte, on 3 days rest. Martinez has always been at his best when he's on regular 4 or 5 day rest. When he gets too much rest, 6 days or more, his game suffers. Batters hit him better (a .070 jump in OPS on his career, about a .200 jump this year) and he gives up more runs (his ERA jumps about 1.00 on his career, about 3.00 this year). Martinez is in his sweet spot going on 5 days rest. On the other hand, Pettitte will be challenged on 3 days rest. For his career, Pettitte is only slightly worse on 3 days rest compared to regular rest. But, here's the rub -- he hasn't pitched on 3 days rest since 2006, when he was 34. The body works differently at 37.

3) Righty power. The Phillies right-handed hitters can demolish Pettitte. Even though Pettitte had a small reverse platoon split this year (.730 OPS for lefties, .717 for righties) and just a very small platoon split for his career (.728 OPS for righties, .711 for lefties), the Phillies righties have demolished Pettitte in the past. It's all on the small to miniscule sample size end of the spectrum, but the results have been great. Including the post-season, Jayson Werth has a .188/.188/750 line with 3 home runs in 16 plate appearances, Pedro Feliz has a .300/.462/.400 line in 13 plate appearances, Ben Francisco has a .400/.500/.400 line in 6 plate appearances, and Carlos Ruiz has a .500/.667/1.250 line in 6 plate appearances. The Phillies' switch hitters have not done well but have held their own against Pettitte, with Shane Victorino posting a .375/.333/.375 line in 9 plate appearances and Jimmy Rollins a .250/.286/.400 line in 21 plate appearances.

The Bad

1) Hometown heroes. The Yankees had the best home record in baseball, at 57-24. Since July 1, the Yankees are even better, with a 35-10 record at home. They'll be returning to their home crowd with a chance to win their first World Series at home since 1999. For most franchises, that's not that long of a time between opportunities. For Yankees fans, that's three lifetimes.

2) Lefty troubles. It's been well documented how poorly the Phillies' lefties not named Chase Utley have performed this Series. It gets worse when you look at how they've performed historically against Pettitte. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have a combined 2 singles, 8 strikeouts, and 1 walk against him in 23 career plate appearances. Raul Ibanez has been better, but not much. Thanks to playing most of his career in the AL, he has 25 plate appearances against Pettitte, in which he's put up a .250/.280/.417 line with 1 home run, 7 strikeouts, and no walks.

3) DH. Shane Victorino will be a game time decision tonight. If he's not able to make it because of his sore finger, the Phils will be forced to play Francisco in center, keep Ibanez in left, and DH either Eric Bruntlett or Matt Stairs. Bruntlett has had a truly awful year this year, and Stairs has been a non-existent hitter since July 1 (.082/.274/.245 line for the last three months of the season). They are a combined 0 for 10 lifetime against Pettitte. With the DH adding Hideki Matsui to the Yankees' lineup, if the Phillies counter with Bruntlett or Stairs, they're in big trouble.

The Outcome

With six hours to go until game time, these are the important factors that could influence this game. All in all, I think Pettitte's short rest combined with the righty dominance the Phillies have shown over him will win the day, and we'll see a Game 7 battle tomorrow night. Here's hoping....

One Three-Game Winning Streak Away From Winning the World Series!

David S. Cohen — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:14:32 -0000

The Phillies are one three-game winning streak away from winning their second consecutive World Series. The Yankees, on the flip-side, are one three-game losing streak away from losing their third World Series in the past 9 years.

Worried about the chances here? Well, yeah, there are some statistical concerns, but nothing that's unprecedented, certainly not for the two teams that are squaring off.

This year, the Phillies had 12 winning streaks of 3 games or more. In fact, 57 of the Phillies' 92 wins, or 62%, came from winning streaks of 3 games or more. Such hot streaks were an essential part of the Phillies' 2009 season. And, to put the hot streaks in the same context as the Phillies' current predicament, two of them came following Phillies' losing streaks of 3 games or more. The Phillies know how to turn the tide and start winning.

For the Phillies' opponent, the Yankees had 7 losing streaks of 3 games or more this season. And, 4 of those 7 losing streaks came following winning streaks of 3 or more. The Yankees clearly know how to take "momentum" and lose it completely.

So, the Phillies can pull through, as they've done it many times this season. And the Yankees can falter as needed, since they've done it before.

Cliff Lee taking the mound tonight is a great way to start.

Weather Issues for Game 3

David S. Cohen — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 03:08:07 -0000

Weather Issues for Game 3

We've been here before. In fact, just over one year ago. Will Bud Selig pull the same crap Saturday night he pulled for Game 5 last year? If the weather's really as bad as it seems they're forecasting, here's hoping they call it early before either pitcher throws anything, and before any fans make their trek from wherever they are coming.

Key questions though: if the game is postponed to Sunday, do the Yankees skip Pettite and go with Sabathia for a Sunday Game 3? Also, no doubt Lee pitches on Monday regardless of whether it's Game 4 or Game 5, right?

Phillies' Post-Season Game-By-Game Winning Patterns

David S. Cohen — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:08:28 -0000

Is there any sense to be made of the following?

Here are the Phillies' records over the past two post-seasons across the 6 playoff rounds they've been in:

Game 1: 6-0
Game 2: 2-4
Game 3: 3-2
Game 4: 5-0
Game 5: 3-0
Game 6: 0-0
Game 7: 0-0

Obviously, as the results would tell anyone without looking at the split, the Phillies have been dominant in October over the past two years. Overall, their record is 19-6, which is incredibly impressive against the best-of-the-best in baseball.

But, if there's been a weak spot, it's been in the second game. What explains this? Our game 1 dominance can be attributed to Cole Hamels last year and Cliff Lee this year. But, our game 2 problems can't be attributed to a huge drop-off in starting pitching, as Pedro Martinez has pitched two great game 2s this year, Hamels pitched mediocre in the NLDS this year, and Brett Myers pitched well enough in the World Series last year. But we lost all four of those games.

Rather, it's the offense that has really struggled in game 2. In those four game 2 losses, the Phillies averaged only 2 runs per game. Is this just a fluke? Or is there some reason the team has struggled in game 2s?

Any thoughts on this pattern here?

Phillies World Series Win Probability Now 59.3%

David S. Cohen — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:00:17 -0000

Phillies World Series Win Probability Now 59.3%

I like those chances.

This Game Is Easy: Hit a Little, Pitch a Little, and You'll Win

David S. Cohen — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:04:41 -0000

Last night was a perfect capsule of the Phillies' post-season so far. They hit, they pitched, and they won. It really is an easy game, isn't it?

It's actually quite remarkable how dominant the Phillies' all-around game has been so far this post-season. In almost every important stat, the Phillies are at or near the top for the post-season, often much better than the Yankees.

Starting with the hitting, the Phillies have been heads above the competition:

Runs: The Phillies have scored the most runs in the post-season by far -- 61 to the Yankees second-best 49. Both teams have played 10 games, so the Phillies have scored 6.1 runs per game compared to the Yankees' 4.9.

OPS: The Phillies' offense has the highest OPS of the post-season. They entered last night with an .840 OPS compared to the Yankees' .800. After last night, the Phillies were up to .847 and the Yankees down to .767. And remember, the Phillies put up their .840 OPS (entering last night) with their pitcher hitting; the Yankees have not yet had a pitcher hit. Not surprisingly for the two teams in the World Series, these stats are the highest for any of the post-season teams.

BA/OBP/SLG: You could imagine a situation where the Phillies, despite being in the World Series, might not lead all the post-season teams in all of the triple-slash stats. But, that hasn't happened, as the team dominates here too. At .262/.364/.483, the Phillies are tied with the Cardinals for best batting average and lead by healthy margins over the other teams in the other stats. The Yankees' vaunted offense is at .256/.346/.421. Again, the Phillies are outperforming all other teams, including the Yankees, despite the Phillies' pitchers hitting in 9 of the 10 games.

Late innings: What's been quite remarkable about the Phillies' performance is that they have excelled in the late innings. The Phillies have hit .252/.345/.482 in the first 6 innings but ramped it up to .283/.405/.485 from the seventh inning on. Note, in particular, the huge jump in on-base percentage in the late innings for the Phillies. The Twins and the Cardinals had higher batting averages in the late innings, but no team has a better OBP or SLG as the game comes to an end, even considering all the late inning heroics the Yankees have had this October. For comparison, the Yankees' late inning line is .248/.383/.464.

These numbers might not be surprising considering the Phillies are known for their powerful offense. But, the pitching numbers are incredible as well:

Overall: The Phillies' pitchers have the lowest OPS against of any post-season team by a wide margin. The Phillies' pitchers have given up a .633 OPS The Yankees are second at .671. The Phillies also have the lowest ERA (2.73, Yankees second at 2.79), highest strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.18, Twins second at 2.44, Yankees third at 2.39), and lowest WHIP (1.12, Twins second at 1.19, Yankees third at 1.26).

Starters: The Phillies' starters also have the lowest OPS against at .604. The Yankees are second at .614. The Phillies blow away the competition in strikeout-to-walk ratio (a remarkable 5.67, Yankees half that at 2.84) and WHIP (0.97). They are second in ERA at 2.67 compared to the Yankees' 2.55.

Bullpen: Remarkably, the Phillies' bullpen has also dominated. They are second in opponents' OPS at .699 (Dodgers are first at .687, with the Yankees and Mariano Rivera at .786, good for sixth this post-season) and second in ERA at 3.24 (Cardinals in first at 2.08, with Yankees third at 3.34). The peripherals are only middle-of-the-pack, but the results have been great.

All in all, when you hit well and pitch well, you're going to win, which is exactly what the Phillies are doing. Easy.

Chase Utley Sets Post-Season Record for Consecutive Games on Base

David S. Cohen — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 14:10:52 -0000

Chase Utley Sets Post-Season Record for Consecutive Games on Base

Lost in the hubbub of Cliff Lee's defensive wizardry (and I think he also pitched well, too, right?), Chase Utley's power, and the offense's never-let-up-ness was the fact that Utley set the record last night by getting on base in 26 consecutive post-season games.

Consecutive hit streaks are so 20th century. The real streaks for the 21st century are on-base streaks. Kudos Chase!