SB Nation User Blog: David S. Cohen

Vote for MattS in Week 6 of Baseball Prospectus Idol!

David S. Cohen — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 13:09:30 -0000

Week Six of Baseball Prospectus Idol is up. And our own MattS has another great piece. This week's assignment was deadline writing: "Imagine that you're bleary eyed, just waking up, but that your editor has emailed and said 'I need a piece for tomorrow!' ... You can't just say no (Believe me, I've tried.) The only thing to do is buckle down and do your best work in the time you have available. What will you be writing about? Baseball, of course. Specifically, one of the thirteen games on the schedule for Thursday."

MattS piece is about the Phillies/Rays matchup on Thursday. It touches on World Series rematches, players who switch from one World Series team to the other, and Pat Burrell's play against his old team. Read it now. And vote early and often!

JC Romero in Fight With Rays Fan After Thursday's Game

David S. Cohen — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 20:17:33 -0000

JC Romero in Fight With Rays Fan After Thursday's Game

The Rays' statement: 'At this point it is a police matter and for that reason we won't have any further comment." AP is reporting that it was JC Romero and that the fight took place after a fan said something to Romero about steroids.

So That Happened: Blue Jays 6, Phillies 1

David S. Cohen — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 12:18:17 -0000

Yup, it was as ugly as the FanGraph indicates. Tuesday in Atlanta is only 3 days away.

via www.fangraphs.com

Interleague Play and the NL East: The Phillies' Big Disadvantage

David S. Cohen — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 17:43:21 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

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It seems like it's lasted forever, but interleague play is almost over. And all Phillies' fans have to say good riddance. Year in, year out, this experiment makes the Phillies Junes miserable. And, compared to the rest of the NL East, interleague play gives the Phillies a huge disadvantage.

Over the course of interleague play, the NL has a .479 winning percentage against the AL (1516-1649, through yesterday). However, the NL East is doing much better than the general rest of the NL. In fact, the NL East actually has a winning record in interleague play: 539-533, for a .503 winning percentage. The rest of the NL has a .467 winning percentage (977-1116).

Three of the NL East teams have a winning record in interleague play, and one is right around even. Of course, the other teams is the Phillies, who have the worst interleague play in the division . . . by a huge margin.

NL East	Wins	Losses	Win %
Marlins	120	96	0.556
Braves	109	99	0.524
Mets	105	103	0.505
Nationals	111	115	0.491
Phillies	94	120	0.439
Total	539	533	0.503

For the Phillies, Tuesday's game in Atlanta can't come soon enough.

Phillies' Interleague Foibles: Ruling Out the DH as the Cause

David S. Cohen — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:02:54 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

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There's no secret about it: the Phillies suck at interleague play. Since 1997, when interleague play started, their record against the AL is 93-118 for a .441 winning percentage. (Of course, that's during the regular season. In the post-season, their record is 4-1.) Going into this season, only 3 NL teams had worse interleague play records than the Phillies.

One theory that always gets bandied about with respect to interleague play is that the NL has a distinct disadvantage because NL teams don't have a DH. The AL teams spend big money on filling a roster spot with a hitter whose job is specifically to hit and not field. The NL teams, playing in a leauge without a DH, don't fill a roster spot with that job in mind. Thus, when they have to play AL teams in AL parks during interleague play, they have to fill the DH spot in the batting order with their best bench guy (or put a regular in the DH spot while plugging that regular's position with a bench guy, which has the same effect).

In theory, this seems like a very reasonable explanation for the fact that the AL has dominated the the NL in interleague play. From 1997 through the start of this year, the AL has won 1536 interleague games while the NL has won 1420 for a .520 AL winning percentage.

However, the fact of the matter is that the DH rule is decidedly not the reason the Phillies are horrible in interleague play. How do we know this? The Phillies are better on the road during interleague play. Here's a simple chart showing the Phillies home/road splits for interleague play since 1997 (and including this year):

	Wins	Losses	Pct.
Home	48	62	.436
Road	45	56	.446

So, on the road where they have to use the DH, the Phillies are slightly better than at home, where the AL team can't use its DH.

Thus, whatever is the cause of the Phillies' ineptitude during interleague play, it's not the DH.

Playing With Fire Hurts: Blue Jays 8, Phillies 3

David S. Cohen — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:29:19 -0000

What happens when the opposing team has 24 runners on base over the course of a game and your team has only 11? You lose.

via www.fangraphs.com

Reveling in the Mets' Misery

David S. Cohen — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 20:15:47 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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As a diehard Phillies fan, I hate the Mets. When I taught my then-two-year old to say "Boo John McCain" last year, I simultaneously taught him to say "Boo Mets." Hating the Mets is that important in my household. I can't assume anything about the political part of that, but I can safely assume that if you're a fan of this blog, you probably share with me this feeling toward the Mets.

And if you're an avowed Mets hater like me, then this past week has been wonderful.

Now let's get one thing straight. I don't wish any serious life troubles on anyone connected with the Mets as individual people. I don't wish them serious illness, family tragedy, debilitating poverty, or any other horrible thing that makes people live unhappy lives. I just want their baseball fortunes to be miserable, which is exactly what's happened recently.

Do we need a re-cap? Sure, why not?

Tuesday, June 9: Even though they beat the Phillies, their ace, Johan Santana, gives up 4 home runs and gets into an argument with the manager over pulling him from the game.

Wednesday, June 10: The Mets strand 16 runners, letting the Phillies tie the game up in the 7th after leading for the entire game until then. They have a chance in the 10th, but Jayson Werth makes a game-saving amazing catch. Then, in the top of the 11th, Chase Utley hits a home run that ultimately is the game-winner.

Thursday, June 11: Again leading for the entire game until the seventh, the Mets allow the Phillies to tie it up at 3, and the game goes extra innings again. Again, Bobby Parnell, the losing pitcher from Wednesday, has trouble in extra innings, giving up two baserunners. Ken Takahashi comes in to relieve him and gets Ryan Howard out on strikes. But Raul Ibanez follows with a three run home run, giving the Phillies a 6-3 win in 10 innings.

Friday, June 12: This one's the best (although it's close with Sunday's game). Luis Castillo will forever hear taunts when trying to catch a pop-up. With Francisco Rodriguez on the mound, saves are automatic these days. But not apparently when an easy pop-up is hit to second with two men on. One dropped ball and two runs later, the Mets have their most embarrassing loss in a long time. Play Luis Castillo off, Keyboard Cat.

Saturday, June 13: A win! Nothing too interesting or terrible for the Mets here. Just your standard win against the Yankees by a guy who hasn't won in the majors in three years.

Sunday, June 14: Johan Santana on the mound against the Yankees. After Friday night, this is the get-even game the Mets are hoping for. Whoops! Doesn't happen. Instead, the Yankees win 15-0. Santana gives up 9 earned runs in 3 innings. Amazingly, no home runs or RBI for Mark Teixeira or Alex Rodriguez. Instead, everyone else on the Yankees pummels the Mets, in their second-worst shutout loss ever.

So much Met misery in six games -- what fun for a diehard Phillies fan!

Of course, if you're looking for a little bit of humanity/humility in this post, it's this: despite the Mets terrible woes, they lost only one game on the Phillies, starting this stretch 3 games behind the Phils and finishing it 4. Too bad the Phillies couldn't capitalize more.

Raul Ibanez and the Juice: Another Look at the Numbers

David S. Cohen — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 13:37:53 -0000

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With the Phillies playing the Dodgers and the Mets over the past seven games and the Red Sox on deck, you'd think that all the talk this week would be about baseball on the field. But, that hasn't been the case, as Philadelphia Inquirer columnist John Gonzalez has stirred up quite a controversy (and yes, this is all Gonzalez's fault) about Raul Ibanez and steroids.

In case you've missed it (which would be shocking), earlier this week Gonzalez published a column taking a relatively obscure blogger to task for speculating that Ibanez's great start to the season was fueled by steroids. Ibanez then responded vehemently denying any allegations. The national media soon picked this up, and somehow the original blogger wound up appearing on ESPN's Outside the Lines yesterday talking about the whole issue. No doubt had Gonzalez never published anything, the original post would have faded into obscurity like much of the blogosphere (including my posts -- I have no illusions of grandeur here). But Gonzalez wanted to stir the pot, and here we are.

The basic argument in the original post was that Ibanez's early season surge this year is unprecedented based on his career numbers and is not explained by the park difference from Seattle to Philadelphia. That may be true. But what the original post didn't analyze was whether Ibanez has ever had a 58 game streak like he has so far this year. And the answer to that simple inquiry is that he absolutely has, over a few different stretches in his career.

So far this year, in 58 games, Ibanez has incredible numbers. He has a .322/.377/.674 triple slash line, good for a 1.051 OPS. He leads the majors in RBI, with 58, and runs, with 49. He is 1 off the lead in home runs, with 21 (behind Adrian Gonzalez). His isolated slugging percentage is a whopping .352, which also leads the majors. Pretty amazing for a 37 year old!

But here's the key piece of information: Ibanez has done this before over 58 game stretches in his career. In fact, there are five other periods of his career that have shown similar dominance: July/August 2001, July/August 2002, June/July 2006, August/September 2007 combined with very early April 2008, and late July/August/September 2008. Here's a chart showing the best 58 game stretches in those time periods compared to the current streak he's on:

Last day	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	R	ISO
Aug 20, 2001	0.342	0.441	0.631	1.072	11	41	33	0.289
Aug 21, 2002	0.314	0.371	0.668	1.039	18	64	38	0.354
Jul 23, 2006	0.262	0.339	0.569	0.907	18	60	41	0.307
Apr 6, 2008	0.354	0.418	0.632	1.051	16	45	38	0.278
Sep 14, 2008	0.365	0.423	0.627	1.050	13	54	42	0.262
Jun 11, 2009	0.322	0.377	0.674	1.051	21	58	49	0.352

As you can see, what Ibanez is doing now is hardly unprecedented for him. Yes, this is his best 58-game home run streak and slugging percentage, but it's not his best 58-game OPS (that was the 1.072 he put up through August 20, 2001) or his best 58-game ISO (that was the .354 he put up through August 21, 2002). His best RBI total isn't even on this chart, as it's through August 22, 2002, with 67 RBI.

Now I want to make one thing entirely clear. I really don't care much about steroid use in baseball. I really never have. I enjoy watching whatever product gets put on the field. I know the athletes do all sorts of things to get themselves ready that us mere mortals could never do: much of it completely legal but still completely out of reach to the average person, some of it completely illegal, others of it in some gray area. I just can't bring myself to care. For all I know, every player in baseball, including Raul Ibanez, is doing something fishy. Or it's only the small number who have been caught. Or somewhere in between. I'll never know and just can't bring myself to care.

So is Raul Ibanez juicing? Like I said, I don't care and I don't and won't ever know. But, what he's doing now is not unprecedented in his long and productive career. There is just no spike in performance that is so unusual for him that we have to conclude that he is taking steroids. That I do know.

Do The Phillies Have To Win Against the Mets To Be Good?

David S. Cohen — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 16:52:21 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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Last night while listening to the radio broadcast of the Phillies/Mets game, I heard Larry Andersen bemoaning the Phillies inability to win against the Mets this year. (Of course, he was talking when it looked like the Phillies were going to drop to 1-5 against the Mets this season and before the Phillies tied the game up in the seventh and took the lead in the eleventh.) A large part of his reasoning was that the Mets are the Phillies' chief rival in the NL East right now and a team can't win its division without doing well against the chief rival.

On the surface, Andersen's comments ring true to an extent. It's certainly not necessary to dominate your chief rival, as the Phillies did last year against the Braves, winning 14 of 18. But, a significantly losing record against your chief rival will hurt as each loss is a two game swing in the standings. Take last night's Phillies win for example. The Phillies entered the game 2 games up on the Mets. Had they lost, they would drop to only 1 game up. However, the Phillies won, so they are now 3 games up on the Mets. Andersen is absolutely correct that winning against your chief rival is important in this sense.

However, he's wrong as a historical matter that it's necessary to win against your chief rival. In fact, he's shockingly forgetting last year. Last year, the Phillies won the NL East by 3 games over the Mets, yet they lost the season series to the Mets -- 7 Phillies wins, 11 Mets wins. Losing to their chief rival certainly didn't stop the Phillies last year. Of course, their trip to the post-season would have been easier had they finished with a winning or even .500 record against the Mets. But, they didn't need to win against the Mets to win the NL East.

And that's held true for many recent playoff teams. Looking back over the last 5 years in the majors, 11 of the 30 division winners have had losing records against the division runner-up. Interestingly, the worst record during that timeframe is the Phillies' 7-11 record against the Mets last year, but there are also a lot of 8-10 and 8-11 records.

Of course, having a winning record against the runner-up is certainly preferable. But, despite Andersen's concerns last night, it's not required.

Vote for MattS NOW - Baseball Prospectus Idol Week 3

David S. Cohen — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 16:22:00 -0000

Week 3 of Baseball Prospectus Idol is up. The topic is "Below the Big Leagues." Our own MattS has another stellar (and timely) entry up about the major league draft. You can read it here - Top Draft Picks: Where They Come From and Where They're Going.

Vote early and vote often!