SB Nation User Blog: David S. Cohen

RJ Swindle Interview

David S. Cohen — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 17:58:22 -0000

[JULY 2 UPDATE: Bumped back to the front page in light of RJ's call up today. Originally posted June 4, 2008.]

Since Baseball Prospectus highlighted Phils' farmhand RJ Swindle, he's become a big interest of mine. Currently a Lehigh Valley IronPig, he barely hits the mid-80s on the radar gun, and has a curve ball in the low 50s. (Yes, you read that right.) Yet, he's been wildly successful in the minors so far, even though he's now in his third organization.

Through the miracles of Web 2.0, I tracked down RJ. He is a very friendly, easy-going guy who was gracious enough to participate in an interview for TGP. I think you'll enjoy reading the interview below.

(Please note: all but the last question and answer (obvious when you get to it) took place before he had his first rough outing for the IronPigs Monday night (letting up 2 earned runs, 3 walks, 2 hits, in 1 inning).)

TGP: Let’s first talk a little bit about your pitching. What pitches do you throw?

RJ: I throw 5 pitches - fastball, curveball, slider, cutter, changeup. My fastball is about 81-84, my curveball that everyone knows me by is about 51-55, all the other pitches come somewhere in between.

TGP: This may be an ignorant fan question, but for your pitches that you throw, can you throw the same pitch at varying speeds? For instance, can you throw a 55mph curve and a 70mph curve? (Same with the other pitches.) Or is your curve one speed, your slider another, etc.?

RJ: I throw the pitches at different speeds, but say my curveball ranges from 51-55, slider, 64-68, and so on. I dont really throw my curveball 2 different speeds. I just throw the other pitches for the different speeds.

TGP: Everything I read about you focuses on this velocity issue. I can throw in the 60s and have once or twice in my life hit 70+ on a radar gun, and I’m sure many of our readers can do the same. But we wouldn’t have any success against professional hitters. What gives you your success pitching at mere mortal speeds?

RJ: I wouldn't say mortal speed is 84, but in baseball you are correct. It is on the low spectrum of professional baseball for sure. My command is what enables me to still be successful, throwing all my pitches where i want them in any count.

TGP: I haven’t seen you pitch unfortunately, and I’m sure many of our readers haven’t either. Does any of your success come from any type of unorthodox delivery?

RJ: My delivery is a little unorthodox. I start almost off the rubber on the far left side and throw a low three-quarters arm motion so it is tough to pick up and makes my fastball look a bit harder and gets on people quicker.

TGP: Does your success as a reliever depend on coming into a game after someone throwing at much faster speeds?

RJ: No, it doesnt really matter who throws in front of me, hard or fast. I am just a lot different from anything anyone else before me will throw.

TGP: Similarly, do guys who face you more than once figure you out? Or have you had success against them too?

RJ: I never really had a problem with people facing me more than once. I was always a starter my whole career till about a year and a half ago, so I am used to having to face guys multiple times. With 5 pitches, I am able to throw a lot of variety against the hitters.

TGP: Is there a big-league pitcher, past or present, who you think you’re most like?

RJ: I really enjoy watching Jamie Moyer pitch, always have. I took an interest in Mike Myers too, although I don't think he is up right now anymore.

TGP: Jamie Moyer and Mike Myers seem like natural comparisons, but even they don't throw as slow as you're saying you throw (right?). If you made it to the big leagues, do you think you'd be a first of your kind?

RJ: Actually I throw harder than Moyer and Myers, but they got to the big leagues throwing harder and then got older and adpated to their loss in velocity from older age. I am just trying to get there with about what they throw now, which ovbiously as they both have shown, works, but it is harder to get there with it because they are few and far between. I am different than both of them too so I would say I might be one of the most unorthodox pitchers who would be up there at the time.

TGP: You were largely a starter in college, but are now a reliever in professional ball. How was the transition from starter to reliever?

RJ: Starting to relieving wasn't too bad of a change. I love starting, but relieving has enabled me to be even more successful now because it is tough for hitters to get a read on me just facing me 1x in tough spots. I would love to maybe start again one day as well, but realistically I think my role in the big leagues will be to come and get lefties out.

TGP: You’re a lefty reliever, which is a position in high demand in the big leagues because lefty pitchers can sometimes (though not always) be more reliable in getting lefty hitters out in key spots. Do you know if you have better success against lefties than righties?

RJ: I am definately made to get lefties out. I have excelled in my career against lefties, and I pride myself on it. I don't think I have given up a hit in triple A yet this year to them, and only 2 hits in double A and that was a bunt and a check swing to third. Righties I can still get out, but not quite as successfully as lefties.

TGP: From the numbers I see on Baseball Cube, you were good in college, but not anywhere near what you've done so far in the minors. What changed?

RJ: Well as a starter you will never has as good of numbers as being out of the pen. I put up really good numbers as a starter in college, but I have really taken to the pen since i got moved over by the Yankees in 2006. It is just a lot easier I feel to go out there and be successful over 1-2 innings with my stuff then it is over 7-8 innings, which is what organizations think as well.

TGP: Let’s move on to your career as a professional. You were drafted in the fourteenth round by the Red Sox in 2004. You had a 1.94 ERA in 51 innings for their low-A ball team, which seems pretty good to me. But then you were released. What happened?

RJ: The Red Sox released me because I had a herniated disc in my back the next spring and they didnt think I could perform anymore with the problem, so they decided to let me go rather than get the problem fixed. It was definately a blow I was not expecting.

TGP: You were then signed by the Yankees after a stint in the independent leagues, and again you excelled. By my calculations, you had a 0.58 ERA in a combined 46+ innings in A and AAA ball. Just 3 earned runs. While striking out 46. And allowing only 41 baserunners (36 hits, 5 walks). That’s pretty incredible, yet you were released again. What happened with the Yankees?

RJ: With the Yankees, I just don't think I fit the mold of their pitchers. They are all about power and velocity and I think some of their people higher up on the chain believed that I couldn't excel at the higher levels. It came down to numbers at the end of spring training and they deemed me to be expendable.

TGP: After being released by the Red Sox and also by the Yankees, you've bounced in and out of the independent leagues. What are the independent leagues like compared to the minors?

RJ: Theres nothing like being in organized baseball, but independent leagues are fun too. They are very competitive. People don't realize it, but I would compare the Atlantic league I was in last year very closely to triple A level. On every team you have guys that have been in the big leagues but for whatever reason just can't find a job at that point in time. They are a little more laid back but fun and competitive.

TGP: Now you’re up to the same tricks with the Phillies. You’ve had sub-1.00 ERAs in A, AA, and now AAA ball for the Phils. Your only stumble was a 4.80 ERA in 15 innings for high-A ball last year. What was the difference in that stint in Clearwater?

RJ: In Clearwater I just had to make little adjustments you do at every level, but I got stuck in the rut in an outing or two of throwing the same pitches a couple times in a row and some guys jumped on the pitches. I gave up my only 3 professional homeruns so far there. I had a rough 4-run inning against all my Yankee buddies early in my second outing, and that skewed my numbers a little bit. Other than that I threw the ball pretty well.

TGP: This year your combined stats for the Reading Phils and the Lehigh Valley IronPigs look like videogame numbers. Your ERA this year is 0.62 [1.20 now after Monday night]. You’ve struck out 29 in 29 innings, while walking just 2. And you’ve given up only 14 hits. Truly amazing stats. How are you feeling about the season you’re having?

RJ: So far this season has been amazing, alot of fun. I am just trying to enjoy it. In my previous years this is about the time I am getting picked up from independent teams, so i am just having a lot of fun starting from the beginning of the season this year. Realistically, I know I probably can't keep the videogame numbers going for another 3 months, but I am sure going to try.

TGP: Here you are some guy throwing at speeds your teammates must think are ridiculously slow, and you’re having success that is almost unheard of in professional ball. Do your teammates take notice?

RJ: I have alot of fun with all my teammates on my speeds. The guys always think the curveball is an awesome pitch, and everyone wants to know how to throw it, but it is not really a pitch I can teach though cause I don't know how to teach it.

TGP: Have you talked with anyone in the Phillies organization about your future with the team? Are the powers that be in Philadelphia taking notice?

RJ: I certainly hope the powers that be are taking notice. I think they are. The Phillies have been great to me, and Steve Nowyrita and Gorm Heimuller have been great to me as well. There are alot of people on the chain that like numbers guys like me rather than velocity for everything so that is good for me. We will see what happens the rest of the year.

TGP: In most years, the Phillies would have called up many minor league pitchers by now. Last year, the Phillies used 25 different pitchers by the All-Star Break! However, just your (and your teammates’) luck - this year, they’ve used the same 12 pitchers all year and we’re already into June. Does that wear on you in the minors since you’ve all been waiting for the call, but nothing is happening in Philadelphia?

RJ: It is great to see the Phillies playing so well. I guess it is kind of a catch-22 about getting called up because we are all here waiting for the chance to help the Phillies at the big league level, but right now obviously they don't need the help so everyone hopes they just keep rolling along and winning. When they do need that help, you just gotta keep pitching well and hope your number is called to be that person to help.

TGP: In any of your stints, do you recall facing any major leaguers who were coming through the minors on rehab assignments? If so, how’d those matchups go?

RJ: I don't think I have faced any big league rehab guys yet. At this level now in triple A, most of the hitters you face have big league time, so i would say those are the closest guys level wise to the bigs I have faced.

TGP: What do you think explains why the Phillies are seemingly giving you a chance whereas the Yankees and Red Sox didn’t?

RJ: I had some bad luck at the wrong times with the Yankees and Red Sox. I think both organizations liked me, but it just didn't work out. The Phillies have been great and have given me the bump I have been working for with allowing me to show my stuff and compete at the highest levels. I can't really say if there is much difference with the chance I am getting. Just the right people in the right places pulling for me in the organization.

TGP: Are there institutional differences worth noting between the Phillies minor league organization and the Yankees and Red Sox?

RJ: I wouldn't say there are any real big differences between the 3 teams i have been on of note. Phillies spring training is a lot harder conditioning wise.

TGP: Is it harder for scouts and management to assess a player who doesn't fit the mold? Does it get frustrating that they seemingly can't figure you out even though your results are great?

RJ: That is the question of the day. I think it has been really hard for scouts and management to figure me out and where to put me and where to rate me. I am just different that anything else you will see, and I think it has taken time for any of them to figure out why and how I keep getting results. But I think I am starting to make some believers finally, but I also know realistically that I will always have to keep up my good numbers because the day my numbers are just average is the day they will all say that my stuff doesn't work anymore. So I just work hard and try to be the best pitcher I can on every team.

TGP: I you threw a 95mph fastball and an 85mph curve and put up the same exact numbers you have, do you think you'd have been drafted higher, made it to the big leagues already, etc.?

RJ: Yes, you are right on with that. I have always felt the pressure to perform above everyone else to have a job, and I think that will be the way it always is. I dont mind it because I love competing and it is one of the reasons I love this game so much. But you are right. If I even had another 8 miles an hour on my fastball, I would have been a top-3 rounder with my stuff and numbers in college and would be in the big leagues by now and never released by the Red Sox and so on. There is definitely a bias against the fact that I only top out at 84. I have had scouts and coordinators tell me that for a fact, but it is ok. It makes the road there that much more special.

TGP: What kind of instructional support from the Phillies do/can you get for your style of pitching?

RJ: I just talk philosophy with the pitching coaches and Gorm, the coordinator. Other than that they just always tell me to keep doing what I am doing.

TGP: Have any of the organizations you’ve been a part of tried to change your pitching?

RJ: No one has ever tried to change me. I am always told I am unique and never to change a thing and just to keep it up.

TGP: What, if anything, do you think you need to work on to improve (if that’s even possible given how you’ve performed already)?

RJ: There is always room for improvement and adjustment and you have to do a little bit of both at every level I believe. But the main thing is to just stick to your strong point and keep doing them because the same pitches that worked at A ball will work in the big leagues. It is just the margin for error is a lot less at every level you move up.

Postscript:

TGP: [After Monday night's rough outing] What happened tonight?

RJ: I was just off. We all go through it and I have gone 2 months being on. It is baseball, and a game designed for failure and that is what I did tonight. I never walk people, let alone 3 guys in an inning. I was just missing with my pitches and a lefty shattered his bat with 2 outs and got a duck fart to fall which scored a run. It was just a bad inning. I can usually get over it quickly, although I am not really used to having many of these, so I just have to get back on the horse and go continue what I've been doing this year.

TGP: Thanks RJ. We really appreciate your taking the time to participate in this. Best of luck with the rest of this year. We hope to see you in Philadelphia soon!

Congratulations RJ Swindle - Your Newest Philadelphia Phillie!

David S. Cohen — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:08:30 -0000

To replace Brett Myers, the Phillies called up RJ Swindle today. Yup, the RJ Swindle that has become a Good Phight favorite. The RJ Swindle who throws a curve in the low 50s and a fastball in the mid 80s. The RJ Swindle that did a great interview with us earlier this year.

I know I speak for all of the Good Phight writers and readers wishing RJ the best of luck in the big leagues. His minor league performance has been outstanding. Even with a few rocky performances in early June, RJ comes to the Phillies after posting a 1.93 ERA with the IronPigs and a 0.54 ERA with the Reading Phils. All told this year, his minor league numbers are sickening: 1.35 ERA in 40 innings pitched, a 48:6 strikeout to walk ratio, and a 0.85 WHIP. After being jerked around by a couple other organizations, RJ certainly has earned his big league invite.

Go get 'em RJ!

July Can't Come Soon Enough

David S. Cohen — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 15:17:34 -0000

More interleague play this weekend? Seriously? Haven't we had enough already? July and a return to NL games can't come soon enough for the Phillies.

The Phillies are now 3-9 in interleague play. Only the Padres have a worse interleague record, at 3-12. (The Dodgers also have the Phillies' 3-9 record.) But, the Phillies have the worst differential between their NL-only play and their interleage play. By far.

Below is a chart showing the NL teams that have been most helped and most hurt by interleague play. The differential is the difference between the team's winning percentage in interleague play and their winning percentage in NL-only play. A positive differential indicates the team is better in, and thus helped by, interleague play; a negative differential indicates the opposite.

	NL W	NL L	NL %	IL W	IL L	IL %	Diff
Rockies	25	42	0.373	7	5	0.583	0.210
Mets	31	35	0.470	7	4	0.636	0.167
Reds	29	39	0.426	7	5	0.583	0.157
Braves	32	36	0.471	7	5	0.583	0.113
Nationals	25	40	0.385	6	9	0.400	0.015
Brewers	37	29	0.561	6	6	0.500	-0.061
Pirates	33	34	0.493	4	7	0.364	-0.129
D-Backs	34	30	0.531	6	9	0.400	-0.131
Cubs	43	24	0.642	6	6	0.500	-0.142
Astros	32	32	0.500	5	10	0.333	-0.167
Cardinals	40	28	0.588	5	7	0.417	-0.172
Giants	30	34	0.469	4	11	0.267	-0.202
Marlins	35	28	0.556	5	10	0.333	-0.222
Padres	29	36	0.446	3	12	0.200	-0.246
Dodgers	33	33	0.500	3	9	0.250	-0.250
Phillies	40	28	0.588	3	9	0.250	-0.338

Ryan Howard's Second 36 Games

David S. Cohen — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 18:45:39 -0000

On May 9, I took a look at Ryan Howard's first 36 games of the season. The start of the season, in which he hit .165/.285/.331, was clearly the worst 36-game performance of his career.

Since then, he's played in another 36 games, and there's not much to complain about anymore. His second-36 game triple-slash numbers are .277/.360/.645 for a nice 1.005 OPS. His .645 SLG is just a bit short of his MVP-year .659 SLG. His eye could use a bit of improvement though, as his walk to strikeout ratio of 17:46 is significantly short of the ratios he's posted over the past two years (better than 1:2 each year).

His raw counting numbers have been very impressive. Over the last 36 games, he has 13 home runs, 45 RBI, and 32 runs scored. Translated to a full season, those numbers are monstrous: 59 home runs, 203 RBI, and 144 runs scored. Of course, the last two numbers are largely because of the incredible lineup he's in, but there's no reason to think he'll have fewer RBI or run scoring opportunities as the season goes on.

With Howard performing as we expected, Rollins and Victorino healthy, and Burrell and Utley playing like MVPs, this lineup is back where it belongs.

Back Where We Belong

David S. Cohen — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 18:25:51 -0000

After last night's game, the Phillies are now back where they belong: first in runs scored in the National League.

There's still work to be done though. The Cubs are only 2 runs behind the Phils but have played two fewer games. However, with the Phillies' lineup completely healthy right now and the Cubs missing Alfonso Soriano for a significant chunk of time once again as well as playing Jim Edmonds almost every day, I expect the Phils' lead to widen over the rest of the season.

What's more surprising though is that the Phillies are third in the NL in runs allowed. I'm pretty sure that no-one's pre-season fantasy, not even Rich Dubee's, included the Phils' pitching staff doing so well at this point of the season. As MattS showed last week, there's a lot of flukiness in the Phils' stellar bullpen performance, but there's also a lot of improvement that can be had if Bret Myers can figure out how to pitch again.

I expect the Phils to fall back to the middle of the pack in runs allowed as the season goes on, but if the offense keeps chugging along on all cylinders, the team should still thrive.

This team is an offensive juggernaut. With even mediocre pitching to complement it, we should continue the early season success without much problem.

Swindle Update

David S. Cohen — Thu, 29 May 2008 15:40:46 -0000

My favorite Phillies farmhand pitched last night for the IronPigs. He came in with the Pigs down 3 in the 8th and pitched two innings of, you guessed it, scoreless, walkless ball. He struck out two and gave up one hit. So, his AAA stats are getting more unreal every day: 11.3 IP, 0.79 ERA, 13:1 K:BB, and 0.53 WHIP. What's it going to take to get him in Philadelphia?

Then v. Now

David S. Cohen — Thu, 29 May 2008 15:09:34 -0000

Three days in October versus three days in May.

Phillies Hitters	Then	Now
R	8	33
BA	0.172	0.336
OBP	0.274	0.438
SLG	0.366	0.533
OPS	0.640	0.971
K	26	14
BB	12	18
HR	5	4

Phillies Pitchers	Then	Now
R	16	10
ERA	5.54	3.33
WHIP	1.46	1.19
BA	0.267	0.262
OBP	0.339	0.306
SLG	0.495	0.369
OPS	0.834	0.675
K	22	24
BB	11	5
HR	4	2

Yes, these last three days against the Rockies have been a blast. But, I doubt any fan wouldn't, in a heartbeat, swap them for those three days in October.

News and Notes

David S. Cohen — Tue, 20 May 2008 17:59:40 -0000

I have a bunch of half-baked thoughts floating around in my head, so I thought I'd do the lazy-blogger thing and just write a news and notes column instead of a full-fledged analysis of anything in particular. So, without further ado, here are a few things that have caught my fancy over the past week or so:

Chris Coste now has just under 400 major league at-bats in his career. He's hit .312, with a .360 OBP and .485 SLG. His .845 OPS would rank him third in the majors and first in the NL among catchers with over 200 plate appearances last year.

R.J. Swindle, the soft-tossing lefty in the Phils' minor league system that I profiled last week, has been promoted to the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. He has kept up his master pitching in AAA. He has pitched 6.33 innings, giving up 1 earned run and 4 hits. Even more impressively, he has improved on his AA strikeout to walk ratio of 16:1 with his now 8:0 ratio.

The Phillies have used only 12 pitchers all year, the same number they currently have on their roster. Other than Brad Lidge starting the season on the DL and missing the first week, no pitcher has been injured. Likewise, no pitcher used in a game (Tim Lahey, on the roster in Lidge's place, was designated for assignment before pitching in a game) has been so bad that he has been sent to the minors or released.

As many analytical baseball fans have long suspected, there's a strong positive correlation between leaving men on base and scoring runs. As Baseball Prospectus writes: "Each of these relationships makes a bit of sense: the more runners you put on base, the more likely some are to get stranded there, and the more runners you put on base, the more likely you are to score runs." That means the next time you get upset because the Phillies left another guy on base, you can comfort yourself in the fact that they tend to be a high scoring team and that's the price you pay.

The Phillies and Interleague Play

David S. Cohen — Fri, 16 May 2008 18:48:00 -0000

Interleague play is back. Tonight the Phillies take on the #$@!%$ Toronto Blue Jays for the first of their 15 interleague games this year. What's this mean for the Phils? If history is any indication, it means a losing record and a competitive disadvantage compared to their NL East counterparts.

Let's look at the NL East records in interleague play over the past 11 years:

Marlins: 105-81(.565)
Braves: 95-86 (.525)
Mets: 91-90 (.503)
Nationals: 97-96 (.503)
Phillies: 86-98 (.467)

The Phillies are the worst team in the NL East in interleague play. By far. Is this just chance or is there some reason for this phenomenon? Part of the explanation for the difference has to be that the Phillies and the Mets regularly play the Red Sox and Yankees, while the Braves and the Marlins have regularly played the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays. That doesn't explain everything, but it explains some of it.

This year continues this trend of the Phillies having a harder schedule. Four of the five NL East teams get to play the Mariners, currently the worst team in the AL. The Phillies are the one NL East team that doesn't. Instead, the Phillies play the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, A's, and Rangers. All five of those teams are around .500 or much better.

Quantifying the challenge the Phillies face this year, the Phillies face the teams with the highest overall winning percentage among the NL East interleague slate. Using the standings as they are today, here's the composite winning percentage of each NL East team's interleague opponents (weighting the records by games played in interleague play):

Phillies: .525 (Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, A's, Rangers)
Marlins: .515 (Royals, Mariners, A's, Rays, Rays)
Nationals: .494 (Orioles, Mariners, Twins, Rangers, Angels, Orioles)
Braves: .491 (A's, Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Blue Jays)
Mets: .474 (Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Mariners, Yankees)

(The Marlins' opponents are only above .500 because of the best-in-the-AL Rays. If you believe that's not going to last, then their schedule is that much easier than the Phillies'. (Likewise, if you believe the Yankees aren't going to be as bad as they have been so far, something I'm not as sure of as I am that the Rays aren't this good, then the Mets' schedule is going to be harder.))

With the schedules as they are this year, I see no reason to believe that the Phillies' historical disadvantage in interleague play, whether self-imposed, random, or because of schedule inequities, is going to change. They're fighting an uphill battle against their main opponents.

Ryan Howard's Slump

David S. Cohen — Fri, 09 May 2008 15:21:35 -0000

When talking about early season slumps, it's a common refrain for analysts to note that the slump is magnified by it occurring early in the season. After all, if a player goes through a tough month in July, he'll have April through June numbers to "absorb" the July slump. But, if a player slumps in April, all he'll have is April numbers, and he'll look awful.

With that nugget in mind, I investigated Ryan Howard's awful start to 2008. 36 games into the season, Howard's triple-slash numbers are a miserable .165/.285/.331. His OPS is a Nunez-esque .616. He's striking out to the tune of .34 Ks per plate appearance and homering only .040 times per plate appearance.

But has he struggled like this before over the course of 36 games but we've just not been able to see it because it's been in the middle of a season instead of the start? The very clear answer to that question is no. What we're seeing from Howard is a unique slump in his major league career. Details if you follow the jump....

Batting Average: Prior to this year, his worst batting average over a 36-game span was from September 27, 2006, to May 26, 2007, when he hit .200. Of course, he was also injured at the start of the 2007 season, so that accounted for some of his problems. Still, he hit thirty-five points better in that 36 game stretch than in this one.

On-Base Percentage: Prior to this year, Howard's worst on-base percentage for a 36 game span came in the very beginning of his career. From September 13, 2004, through July 15, 2005, Howard's on-base percentage was .295 (still higher than his current .285). In only one other 36 game stretch was Howard's OBP lower than .300, and that was the 36 game stretch three games after his .295 stretch. Howard rarely walked early in his career, and his low OBP in these times is indicative of that, as his batting average in those times was in the low- to mid-.200s (not the mid-.100s we're seeing now).

Slugging Percentage: Howard's previous worst 36-game slugging percentage was .392, from September 24, 2006, through May 7, 2007, right before he went on the disabled list. His current .331 SLG is far below his previous worst stretch.

OPS: Howard's .616 OPS is over .100 lower than his previous worst 36-game OPS. Last year, from August 9 to September 16, Howard's OPS was .732. Obviously, this is closer in time to now than his previous struggles in other categories, so maybe there's been a carry over? But, the numbers for the rest of 2007 don't bear that out. He finished 2007 with a final-36-game OPS of 1.090.

Strikeout Rate: Some theories are that Howard's horrible stretch now is because he's striking out more than he ever has before. But that's not true. In the middle of last year, from June 8 to July 20, Howard struck out .365 times per plate appearance compared to .338 this year. During that stretch of striking out last year, Howard hit .295/.377/.664. His strikeout rate clearly wasn't too much of an impediment then.

Homerun Rate: This year, Howard is hitting a home run once every 25 plate appearances. This is not his worst rate, however, as he struggled in this department at the end of 2006, carrying over into 2007. His worst stretch was from September 10, 2006, through April 24, 2007, although he had many 36-game stretches around that time with rates worse than this year. The difference, though, is that he was still hitting doubles then, unlike now, giving him a slugging percentage higher than he has now.

So, although Howard is not striking out as much as he has at other points in his career, this 36-game stretch is his worst performance yet as a major leaguer. His batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage are far below any of his previous 36-game lows. And his on-base plus slugging is in the same territory. What we're seeing from Howard now is sui generis.

An interesting endnote: What was Howard's best 36-game stretch? It was his MVP-year August and early September. From August 4 through September 10 of that year, Howard had an unreal 1.422 OPS. If only that guy were playing for the Phillies now.