SB Nation User Blog: David S. Cohen

Does Anyone Like the Phillies' Lee Trade?

David S. Cohen — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 14:15:42 -0000

This is an honest question. Outside Phillies reporters (or ex-reporters) who rely on access to the team in order to put food on their table each day, are there any analysts who like what the Phillies did with Cliff Lee?

Obviously I can only read a small portion of what's out there, but what I've read isn't pretty. (And I agree with it.) Below is my sampling. In the comments, please post links to what you've seen from other analysts about the Lee trade. And if you find someone saying the Phillies did the right thing here, I'd in particular like to see that.

Matt Swartz, Baseball Prospectus: "The only team that does not necessarily come out ahead in this is the Phillies. The team really made two separate trades—three prospects for Roy Halladay conditional on an awesome extension, and Cliff Lee for three inferior prospects. The former will turn out to be a success and the latter will not. . . . The issue I take is that they could have non-tendered Joe Blanton (or, better yet, traded him for some inferior prospects) and Chad Durbin and won two or three more games in 2010 at the same $9 million salary. I say that even as someone who believes Blanton is vastly underrated, but they could have gotten better value by doing that. If Blanton was worth nothing on the trade market (which I am skeptical about), then the Phillies were foolish to offer him arbitration—clearly no one else would have even offered him his arbitration estimate on the free-agent market, so why pay him that much? Figure out what other teams would pay him and offer him that and a cookie."

Joe Sheehan, Baseball Prospectus: "This, in fact, gets to my biggest problem with the sequence: Roy Halladay just left $60 million on the table to come to Philadelphia. The Phillies couldn’t leave $9 million on it in pursuit of putting him on the best team in baseball? . . . The Phillies play in a taxpayer-funded ballpark, have been to back-to-back World Series—with all the direct revenue that generates—and will no doubt pack Citizens Bank Ballpark again in 2010 with another three million people paying even higher ticket, parking, concession, and souvenir prices. To trade away Cliff Lee in a blatant money move is utterly ridiculous under those circumstances, and worse still, turns the Roy Halladay trade into little more than a minor upgrade."

Christina Kahrl, Baseball Prospectus: "Less certain is the necessity of coupling this trade with the deal that put Lee in Seattle. Even if you accept for the sake of argument the suggestion that Amaro had to work within a budget, and that he had to have one or the other, this seems to suggest that the Phillies just blew it by being active early and, true to form, acted fast. If payroll's a problem, then the money spent on Placido Polanco or Ross Gload or Juan Castro or Brian Schneider—in short, the entire pack of elective add-ons, these veteran talents barely above the free-talent alternatives or players making close to the minimum—deserves to be seen collectively as needlessly spent money on players who don't significantly alter the Phillies' chances at a third pennant, not nearly so much as having a rotation with Doc and Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels gives you a rotation that might have been able to handily beat the best the AL might throw at you, and start a case for elevating the Phillies to dynastydom."

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs: "The Cliff Lee to Seattle portion of this trade just seems very light in return for the Phillies. They’re getting two power arms with a lot of questions marks and a speedy center fielder without a lot of power. None of these guys are top tier prospects. This is the best Philadelphia could have gotten for Lee? Really? A pu-pu platter of interesting, high-risk guys not really close to the majors for a Cy Young-quality pitcher who is already well on his way to Type A free agency? And, even if that’s true, why clear $8 million from the books by trading Lee? Surely, you could have moved Joe Blanton without eating any of his salary, even if you didn’t love the deals being offered. Or, how about this – don’t sign J.C. Romero, Brian Schneider, and Ross Gload, whose 2010 salaries are about equal to Lee’s. Replace those three reserves with league minimum guys and you’ve saved enough money to keep Lee around."

Evan Burnell, Hardball Times: "The Phillies overextended themselves financially last year and are trying to keep payroll steady (the $6 million they're receiving in the deal helps tremendously). In addition, the prospects back to Philadelphia help to replenish a farm system gutted by the Lee and Halladay trades. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, I don't think they're receiving anything more than midlevel prospects who are a long shot to have long-term value in town. They all look like eventual major leaguers, but are they anything more than replacement level? We can't answer that definitively. I do credit GM Ruben Amaro, however, for recognizing the need to replenish the farm system. [On the other hand,] the Seattle Mariners made a tremendous move acquiring Cliff Lee for three prospects that don't rank as even guaranteed future major leaguers."

It's Official: Lee to Seattle for Aumont, Gillies, Ramirez

David S. Cohen — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:59:51 -0000

It's Official: Lee to Seattle for Aumont, Gillies, Ramirez

Zolecki tweet: "Phillies officially announce that Cliff Lee has been traded to Seattle for Aumont, Gillies and Ramirez."

Halladay press conference at 5pm.

Would You Pay $2 to Have Lee AND Halladay Pitching for the 2010 Phillies?

David S. Cohen — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 04:01:53 -0000

If the reports are correct (and I'm still in the camp that says that we really can't trust anything until the deals are finally announced), the Phillies are selling off Cliff Lee for 2010 because, with Roy Halladay in the fold, they're going to be over their $140M budget.

So, the Phillies would rather a) avoid paying Lee in 2010 and get three of the Mariners prospects than b) pay Lee in 2010 and let him go in free agency while getting two compensation draft picks. The Mariners prospects are slightly more valuable than two compensation picks, but only slightly. But, for this exercise, let's say it's a wash.

This part of the deal then is really just about money. Cliff Lee is under contract for 2010 for $9 million. The Phillies last year had a total home attendance of just over 3,600,000. Add in the 8 home playoff games, and we're just under 4,000,000 fans watching baseball games at Citizens Bank Park.

The math here is very easy. If the Phillies charged $2 extra per ticket in 2010, they'd make up almost all of Cliff Lee's contract. And that's without figuring in an attendance bump (albeit slight considering the number of sell-outs last year) or other ways the Phillies could capitalize on a rotation of Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Happ/Blanton (makes you salivate, doesn't it?).

So, here's my question to you: would you, as a paying customer of the Philadelphia Phillies, be willing to fork over $2 extra per ticket next year to keep Lee on the team along with newly acquired Halladay?

The poll is below, but I'm betting I know the answer to this one. And if the math here is this simple and obvious, then why the hell is Ruben Amaro so hell-bent on getting rid of Cliff Lee?

[Edited Wednesday morning with Cliff Lee's correct 2010 contract value. His base is $8M but he has a $1M bump this year. My point still stands.]

Poll

Would you pay $2 extra per ticket in 2010 to see Cliff Lee in the rotation along with newly-acquired Roy Halladay?

THIS JUST IN: Phillies Trade Lee, Hamels, Utley, Drabek, Brown, Taylor, D'Arnaud, Schmidt, Carlton, and Ashburn for Halladay and Two Prospects

David S. Cohen — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:33:46 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - ASSOCIATED PRESS

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That's about where this thing is right now, right?

Let's get out on the table what we have the most certainty is true: Roy Halladay was in Philadelphia at some point today.

Is there anything more that we might have even a 50/50 shot of knowing is true? There have been about 148 iterations of this deal since 2pm this afternoon. The Phillies are trading Cliff Lee, then they're not trading Cliff Lee. The Phillies are getting prospects, then they're shipping prospects. The Phillies couldn't trade Joe Blanton, now they're sending Blanton and J.A. Happ out for physicals. The Phillies are negotiating a $68M contract with Halladay, then they're asking for small change in return from the Blue Jays.

It's all pure speculation at this point. And the reporters know that. All they have to do is look back at their Twitter feed or Facebook page and compare what they wrote earlier today with what they're writing or reporting now. There's no doubt at all that tomorrow morning it will all be different. (Hell, why wait? It'll be different two hours from now.) Just like it will be when the trade is announced (if there is even a trade to announce at the end of this).

If you want to know what's wrong with the internet, journalism, and sports, here's exhibit 1 with a bullet. Jon Heyman, Jayson Stark, Ken Rosenthal, Todd Zolecki, Andy Martino, etc. -- none of them can look like he's lagging behind the others. So they report what they've heard rather than what they've found out to be true. I'll sound old when I say this, but I'll say it anyway: in the old days, the reporters would have at least tried to do their fact checking, confirmed with multiple sources, and reported something in the next day's paper based on their best belief as to what the facts are. Now, what we get is a phone call from someone who might at one point in time have been in touch with some guy who knew someone who vacationed with an agent who is colleagues with another agent who has a player on the team who could be the fourth team in on the deal and who claims to know something. Then, that is reported right away so the scoop is made.

And we buy it hook, line, and sinker. Let me be entirely clear: I'm not immune to this at all. After all, did I get much work done this afternoon while trying to find out every morsel of information I could? Of course not. And where does that leave me? With the best report from one of the most trust-worthy reporters being that the Phillies are getting had and paying much more for Roy Halladay now than they would have had to pay in July. That makes no sense. I know it. Jayson Stark knows it. You know it. Yet that's what we get fed because we are hungry and the reporters know how to gorge us.

Someone who has reported something today may just get this deal right. But if they do, it'll be because blind squirrels do indeed find nuts every once in a while. It won't be for any other reason.

Remember that as this thing develops. We know nothing. And neither do they.

Roy Halladay in Philadelphia . . .

David S. Cohen — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:32:03 -0000

Roy Halladay in Philadelphia . . .

Well, let's be precise: Roy Halladay's image is in the Philadelphia Inquirer today, front page of the sports section. Which, in a way, means that Roy Halladay is in Philadelphia in that thousands of people in Philadelphia received this image at their home this morning.

Anyway, the speculation continues....

(Sorry about the headline here, but I couldn't resist.)

Phillies Top 10 Stories of 2009: No. 8 -- What the Hell Happened to Brad Lidge?

David S. Cohen — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 14:56:56 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

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From perfection to perdition. From the best to the all-time worst. From a season of unending highs to a season of incessant lows.

And yet that doesn't even begin to describe how bad this past season was for Brad Lidge. The Phillies' vaunted closer, who was literally (not figuratively) perfect in 2008, literally (not figuratively) posted the worst relief season of all time in 2009.

There are way too many ways to demonstrate the horror that was Brad Lidge's season, but here are just a few for your enjoyment:

Lidge pitched in the 9th inning in 62 games and gave up 48 runs and 99 base runners.
Lidge's OPS against with men on base was 1.025 and with men in scoring position was 1.017.
He had a -4.54 win probability added. Compare that to his +5.37 last year.
As is obvious given how poorly he pitched, compared to 2008, he walked more batters, struck out less, gave up more hits, allowed more home runs, had a higher BABIP, and left fewer men on base.

Basically, there was nothing good about 2009 for Brad Lidge. Even his slight resurgence in the playoffs was ruined by his blowing Game 4 of the World Series after the Phillies had tied it up in the 8th and looked to finally have some momentum against the Yankees.

Unlike 2008 when the Phillies won the World Series in large part because of Brad Lidge, in 2009 the Phillies made it as far as they did despite Brad Lidge.

And yet we've got him for another 2 years at $11.5M each year with a $12.5M club option (with $1.5M buyout) in 2012. So the Phillies have to hope Lidge can turn it around and be somewhere closer to 2008 and nowhere near 2009.

Early projections are favorable. Bill James projects Lidge to have a drastic turnaround in 2010 to a 3.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. And ZIPS isn't as favorable, but still sees a rebound to a 4.29 ERA.

Phillies fans have to believe that there's some truth in the James' and ZIPS' forecasts if for no other reason than that dead cats bounce. Because another year like 2009 will tear out our hearts and darken our souls. And we just can't take that again from this silly game of baseball.

The Wrong Focus: Why the Phillies Should Focus on Offense Off the Bench

David S. Cohen — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 16:22:10 -0000

Ruben Amaro Jr. is reportedly so content with the offense that Ben Francisco and Greg Dobbs can provide off the bench next year that he thinks that the Phillies should focus on defense with their other bench positions. Here's the Inquirer's introductory take on the matter:

The Phillies will emphasize defense when working to improve their bench this off-season, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said yesterday.

While the team would love to add part-time players who can hit for batting average and power, they will "err on getting defense over offense," Amaro said.

Amaro is wrong here for two reasons that can be encapsulated with the following numbers: .630 and .447.

First, Amaro is wrong because the Phillies as a team had an awful .186/.284/.346 triple slash line and .630 OPS last year when pinch hitting. That .630 OPS was 12th in the NL. Their .186 batting average when pinch hitting was 15th in the NL. This is awful production from the bench, especially given that the bench usually comes into play in important game situations.

Second, the Phillies were 8-16 in interleague play last year (when you add in the World Series) and have a .447 overall winning record against the AL since interleague play has begun (including World Series appearances). As was quite clear in the World Series, the Phillies suffered with the DH at Yankee Stadium and Hideki Matsui being the main pinch hit threat at Citizens Bank Park. With a bench that's weak offensively, the Phillies will not eliminate their NL East disadvantage in interleague play or give themselves more options if they reach the World Series again.

Both of these reasons indicate the Amaro is foolish to emphasize defense over offense in his quest to fill out the bench this off-season.

But, there is one possible way that I could be less angry with this decision. In filling the third base spot, as PhillyFriar has noted over the past week, there are players available by free agency or trade who might be offensive assets but defensive liabilities. If Amaro were to pursue one of those players, it might be worth backing him up with a more defense-oriented infielder who can sub for the new third baseman when appropriate.

However, even this possibility would explain just one position. Even if that were to come to pass, the Phillies need more offense off the bench. Focusing on defense is wrong.

Worst Day of the Year

David S. Cohen — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 21:32:35 -0000

Worst Day of the Year

By my observation, this is the first day since probably mid-February there has been no Phillies-related story in the Inquirer sports pages. To me, this is the worst day of the year. There will be more, for sure, as this is just the start of the downtime in the baseball news cycle. But today's void is the worst, as it reminds you of what's to come over the next three months.

We at The Good Phight will try our best to fill that void, but these are the darker days of baseball, for sure.

Congratulations ScottAZ -- Winner of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest

David S. Cohen — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:40:32 -0000

The World Series is over, and the results of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest are in. Congratulations to ScottAZ for getting 6 points in the context. FuquaManuel tied ScottAZ, but as the rules state, I did a random drawing and ScottAZ won. I'll be contacting ScottAZ shortly about the prize.

Here are the answers to each question asked in the contest.

Cliff Lee wins: 2
Ryan Howard home runs: 1
Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins stolen bases (combined total): 3
Eric Bruntlett plate appearances: 1
Phillies starting pitcher innings not by Cliff Lee or Pedro Martinez: 10.3
Brett Myers innings pitched: 1
Jimmy Rollins walks: 5
Brad Lidge saves: 0
Alex Rodriguez hits with runners in scoring position: 2
Mariano Rivera runs allowed: 0
World Series outcome (victor and # of games): Yankees in 6

A couple of entries are worth noting. Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 had 5 points, the highest point total for an entry not guessing the correct outcome of the Series. (Both ScottAZ and FuquaManuel guessed Yankees in 6, which was worth 3 points.) And Phils 2036 World CH guessed correctly that Jimmy Rollins would have 5 walks, something I consider an absurd guess and outcome!

Thanks to all for playing. Let's do this again next October!

Phillies Pick Up Cliff Lee's Option

David S. Cohen — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:39:55 -0000

Phillies Pick Up Cliff Lee's Option

Shocking, just shocking news! Full Zolecki tweet: "Phillies pick up Cliff Lee's option. Haven't decided on Pedro Feliz. Have until Monday to make that decision." We've got to hope Ruben Amaro Jr. makes the right call on Feliz and dumps him.