Shane Carwin vs. Junior dos Santos

Taking nothing away from Brock Lesnar, this is a much better fight in my opinion because both of these men are likely to be relevant in MMA in two years. A lot of people are citing Carwin's lengthy layoff after his fight with Lesnar last summer, but dos Santos' isn't much better. Both have been out about a year, so it's going to be interesting to see who did what with the time off. We've heard about a slimmed down Carwin, but what effect that has on his performance is yet to be seen.

I think we're going to see this fight played out against the cage. If Carwin can grind JDS into the fence and land quick but powerful shots like he did to Frank Mir he could end the fight within the first two rounds. JDS needs to maintain a consistent distancing in order to be successful. He needs to utilize his speed and wear Carwin down, pulling him into the third round. Only Lesnar has been able to drag Carwin past the first, but I think dos Santos can manage it.

I'm leaning towards dos Santos in this fight. Carwin is coming off a back surgery that has to be taken into account and as far as I know JDS had a relatively painless time off waiting around to fight Brock. All things considered, I think you have to give the advantage to Junior dos Santos.

My pick: dos Santos via DEC

Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes

I hate to say this fight may be all about Kenny Florian, but it just might be. Florian has all the physical tools, but more importantly I think he has the mental edge in this fight. He appears to have dropped the weight the correct way and it shouldn't be an impediment to his success. You don't make it in four different weight classes by being undisciplined, unless you're going the wrong way like James Toney. Florian is coming in with more experience and a far better training camp.

Nunes' split decision win over Mike Brown, which is also the biggest win of his career, is looking worse by the day. He may present some problem with his unorthodox striking, but I'm not confident he has an edge in any particular area. He's just not there yet.

Florian via SUB

Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz

When you put two elite grapplers in the cage together odds are you're about to see some questionable striking. If it must be poor, at least make it powerful. That advantage goes to Munoz. He absolutely crumpled CB Dollaway in his last fight, and thanks to CB and Nate Marquardt, we know there's a chance this fight could be over in one punch. I like Munoz' chances of landing a bomb more than I do of Maia managing a takedown.

I know Maia has markedly improved his striking over the last few years, but I'm just not overly impressed with his wins in the UFC, aside from maybe Chael Sonnen. His most recent wins come from Mario Miranda and Kendall Grove, one fighter already released by the UFC and the other likely to join him shortly. Barring some horrible decision making by Munoz, I think he takes this fight.

My pick: Munoz via DEC

Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman

This fight is going to be a head scratcher for most fans. Why this is appearing on the main card? I'm not really sure. Einemo, who was originally slated to face Shane Carwin, hasn't fought in MMA since 2006 and never in North America. He's been training with elite fighters like Overeem in the Netherlands, but so has Alistair's brother Valentijn. 

Herman is by no means a world beater, but he presents many of the same issues to Einemo that Carwin would have. 14 of his 22 victories came by way of knockout, including one over Don Frye. Herman is younger, more experienced and just all around better.

My pick: Herman via TKO

Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha

While I would have much rather seen Mac Danzig in this fight, Rocha stepping in on late notice against Cerrone could be pretty entertaining. Rocha isn't exactly known for his striking prowess, so if Cerrone can keep this fight standing fans could be treated to a nice stoppage.

Unfortunately for Rocha, Cerrone is just too well rounded for someone who only started fighting two years ago. Regardless of where the fight ends up, I like Cerrone to hold a comfortable advantage. Unless Cerrone foolishly abandons his gameplan he should make this his fourth-straight win, setting him up for tougher opponents moving forward in his UFC career.

My pick: Cerrone via TKO

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Throughout the day today, SB Nation MMA will be offering fight-by-fight previews of every bout on the UFC 131 main fight card. These will serve as a reminder of who the fighters are, how they got here, what the experts predict will happen and more.

Also, SB Nation MMA's live coverage will begin at 6 p.m. EST at the beginning of the under card. We'll have round-by-round scoring beginning at 6 p.m. ET with the Facebook/YouTube fights. Be sure to follow Luke Thomas on Twitter @MMANation for further developments and analysis.

It's going to be a night to remember. Let's take one more look at it before the big show.

Main card:

Shane Carwin vs. Junior dos Santos

Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes

Mark Munoz vs. Demian Maia

Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman

Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha

On Spike at 8 p.m. ET:

Yves Edwards vs. Sam Stout

Jesse Bongfeldt vs. Chris Weidman

On Facebook at 5:50 p.m. ET:

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Mike Massenzio

James Head vs. Nick Ring

Dustin Poirier vs. Jason Young

Joey Beltran vs. Aaron Rosa

Michihiro Omigawa vs. Darren Elkins

Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields

Jake Shields is an outstanding fighter. Unfortunately, he's a relative unknown who many fans aren't giving a fair shake to take this fight with Georges St. Pierre. While the UFC has done a fantastic job in showcasing the kind of fighter Shields truly is, it still might not be enough to beat one of the sport's pound-for-pound best.

There isn't a doubt in my mind that Georges St. Pierre wants to keep this fight standing. With the best wrestling in the UFC's welterweight division at his disposal, that's a likely possibility. GSP will utilize his jab and dictate the pace of this fight if he can force Shields to strike with him.

Shields may be a wizard on the ground, but the question is whether or not he can get the fight there. I honestly don't believe he constantly can, which removes the core of Shields' plan for success. This fight is less about Shields being inadequate and more about St. Pierre being dominant.

My pick: St. Pierre

Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick

UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo makes his long awaited promotional debut in what could be a tough fight with Mark Hominick. In addition to defending his UFC title for the first time, Aldo is going to have to do it in front of the biggest crowd in UFC history, the majority of which will be cheering for fellow Canadian Hominick.

Whether or not UFC jitters will affect Aldo is yet to be seen, but it always has to be taken into account when you take a look at the variables. There's also the ring rust of not fighting for seven months. Hominick has been here before. He's competed in the UFC and has nearly 30 fights under his belt. He's on a five-fight win streak and is one of, if not the best, technical strikers in the featherweight division.

Aldo may be the sport's pound-for-pound king. At only 24 years of age, Aldo appears to be on a rampage of the featherweight division. After taking the WEC 145lbs crown from Mike Brown in 2009, Aldo has looked like an absolute machine. I don't believe he's lost a round in any fight of his I've ever seen. Right now, he may be his own biggest competition. Between the long neck injury layoff, the UFC jitters and the pressures that go along with being a UFC champion at such a young age, his biggest obstacles may all be mental.

Hominck's overall game has dramatically improved from being a considered chiefly a striker a few years ago, but I'm not so sure he should throw out his greatest asset by trying to take Aldo to the mat. Aldo's explosiveness doesn't just translate to his striking, he can put the same amount of force into breaking free of submissions. I have to like Aldo in this fight.

My pick: Aldo

Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida

Not much has been made of Randy Couture's final fight in the UFC. Is it being buried in a sea of ‘GSP mania' or is it just not that big a deal to anyone? Not exactly sure. Either way, it seems like one of the sport's great pioneers should be sent out with a bit more of a bang.

Looking to sour the night for Couture is Lyoto Machida. After dropping two straight to Mauricio Rua and Quinton Jackson, this fight is do or die for the former champion. While I'm sure fans would love to see Couture's career go out on a high note, it would almost certainly come at the price of Machida's.

Machida has to avoid a slow start in this fight. We saw in his fight with Rampage Jackson that he can give away early rounds because of his unique style. Couture will be constantly moving forward, always pressuring. He'll want to pin Machida's hips to the cage and take away his mobility. Couture does not take fights he doesn't think he can win. Be it Tim Sylvia, Mark Coleman or even James Toney, Couture is very good about finding an opponent's holes and exploiting them. He is the master gameplanner and is tough to pick against no matter the circumstances.

I just think Machida is too much right now. He knows what's at stake in this fight and he won't allow himself to fall into the same mistakes that cost him in his last two fights. Couture hasn't competed with someone on Machida's level for a few years now. If you take a look at the guys Couture has beaten over the last seven years, aside from Vera, who was cut, none of them are still fighting in the UFC. Couture is my best bet to win as an underdog, but I'm going with Machida.

My pick: Machida

Jason Brilz vs. Vladimir Matyushenko

I seem to be in pretty good company with everyone ranting about this fight making the main card. Oh well, can't judge it until we see it. This is a pretty tough call. While I love what Brilz showed in his ‘loss' to Lil' Nog, his lengthy layoff could negate any of the momentum he gained from that performance.

Matyushenko is just a solid veteran. Nothing spectacular, but no giant holes in his game. He has a solid chance with almost anyone in the division not named Jon Jones. This is a toss up, but I'm picking Matyushenko. I'm siding with experience and the concern in Brilz' 11 months away from competition.

My Pick: Matyushenko

Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson

To me, this is actually one of the more intriguing fights on the card. We have the UFC debut of one of the WEC's biggest stars in Ben Henderson and one of the UFC's great, unsung veterans in Mark Bocek. The UFC certainly didn't roll out the welcome mat for Henderson.

Somewhat similar to St. Pierre and Shields, Henderson is facing a double whammy of fighting an opponent who is both extremely tough and largely unknown. While most fans might be expecting Henderson to just pick up the pieces after losing his title in the WEC's final show, Bocek has all the tools to spoil the night and take this.

Bocek is the better pure grappler, but I like Henderson's lankiness if he can keep this fight off his back. Henderson's title fight with Anthony Pettis revealed some holes in his BJJ, both offensively and defensively. If he can avoid being submitted, I see Henderson doing a bit more to win this fight. I like what I've seen in the WEC against some solid competition like Donald Cerrone and Jamie Varner.

My pick: Henderson

Nate Diaz vs. Rory MacDonald

Two tough guys trying to make some noise in a UFC welterweight division desperately looking for some new faces circling contendership. Both Nate Diaz and Rory MacDonald are a few years away from scratching that level, but these are exactly the sort of fights each needs to point to when they eventually start making claims. With each of them coming off of tough losses, someone needs to avoid dropping their second straight fight tonight.

I'm still haunted by what Joe Stevenson was able to do to Diaz in their fight at ‘The Ultimate Fighter Finale' back in 2009, but I think he actually has an edge in the wrestling department over MacDonald. Less of a pure wrestler and more of a Judo specialist, Diaz comes at funky angles and has the advantage any time this fight hits the mat. MacDonald is no slouch in any one major area, but he may not be able to find a phase of the game where he edges out Diaz. Perhaps some hard work in the clinch, but we'll have to see.

I like Diaz in this fight. He's a good bit more experienced at competing at the UFC level and he should be able to handle the young Canadian. At only 21 years of age, the fact that MacDonald is even fighting professionally is amazing. He'll be a monster once he gets some more work in the cage.

My pick: Diaz

Jake Ellenberger vs. Sean Pierson

I'm usually pretty hard pressed to find a reason to pick against Jake Ellenberger, but this fight has some issues for me. We know Ellenberger can maul tough guys like Mike Pyle and John Howard, but Pierson presents some problems in this fight. Pierson, a southpaw and an absolute technician on the feet, should give Ellenberger some issues in the set up. Concern for me comes in the lack of time Ellenberger had to prepare for him.

People are overlooking Pierson's overall game and this should by no means be a cakewalk for Jake. Ellenberger, who cuts down a fair bit to make 170, hasn't had the kind of training camp he's used to. He's taking this fight on extremely short notice and we'll have to see what sort of an effect that has on his cardio.

With that said, I like Ellenberger on his worst day just a bit more than I like Sean Pierson. He should be able to use his dominant wrestling to maintain a smothering top game. This is a huge leap in competition for Pierson and I'm not quite sure he's ready. It could be tougher than Ellenberger and fans were counting on, but I see Ellenberger taking this fight.

My pick: Ellenberger

Continue reading this post »

Throughout the day to day, SB Nation MMA will be offering fight-by-fight previews of every bout on the UFC 129: St. Pierre vs. Shields fight card. These will serve as a reminder of who the fighters are, how they got here, what the experts predict will happen and more.

Also, SB Nation MMA's live coverage will begin at 6 p.m. EST at the beginning of the under card. We'll have round-by-round scoring beginning at 6 p.m. ET with the Facebook fights. Be sure to follow Luke Thomas on Twitter @MMANation for further developments and analysis.

It's going to be a night to remember. Let's take one more look at it before the big show.

Main card:
Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields [WW title]
Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick [FW title]
Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida
Jason Brilz vs. Vladimir Matyushenko
Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson

On Spike at 8 p.m. ET:
Nate Diaz vs. Rory MacDonald
Jake Ellenberger vs. Sean Pierson

On Facebook at 6 p.m. ET:

Claude Patrick vs. Daniel Roberts
IvanMenjivar vs. Charlie Valencia
Jason MacDonald vs. Ryan Jensen
John Makdessi vs. Kyle Watson
Pablo Garza vs Yves Jabouin

Mauricio Rua vs. Jon Jones

As if fighting for the UFC's light heavyweight title wasn't enough, Jon Jones apparently still had time to run down a burglar this afternoon. I guess it's safe to say he's in the right mindset. He might not be ready for someone like Shogun Rua just yet, but he sure looked the part after his dismantling of previously undefeated Ryan Bader just over a month ago. I don't believe Rua should be a 2.5-1 underdog in this fight, but it's hard not love Jones here.

The fight itself is a nightmare on paper for the champ. Rua, coming off a third knee surgery, has been abysmal at defending the takedown since joining the UFC. Seeing how even world-class wrestlers like Matt Hamill were thrown by the youngster at will, I'm fairly certain we see it happen again tonight. From there, Jones' ground and pound is devastating and the prospect of Shogun fighting off his back isn't exactly comforting. If Jones can close the distance, corner Rua and get him to the mat he takes this fight. I think the 'Age of Jones' begins tonight.

My prediction: Jones

Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland

Urijah Faber just has too much to lose if he doesn't show up in this fight. With a possible coaching gig on 'The Ultimate Fighter' parlaying into a title fight with bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz looming overhead, Faber isn't about to drop one right now. I also like that he has another Team Alpha Male member in Joseph Benavidez fighting on the card. I like to believe that makes a difference.

Even with this being Faber's UFC debut, I can't see him falling prey to the notorious UFC jitters. He's been the main event for major shows too many times to count and should be used to the pressure and attention. Eddie Wineland is a dangerous fighter, but I don't think he has enough to get it done against someone like Faber. Faber has an edge in every department. It's a safe bet we see him getting his title shot after tonight.

My prediction: Faber

Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus

Can I just say I can't believe this fight is happening? After whipping the hyped Charles Oliveira in a fight that could have ruined his chances at getting a title fight, Jim Miller is once again fighting a semi-dangerous opponent no one has heard of. In fact, no one even knows how old he is. Let the Iranians try to figure it out. All I know is that Miller is probably going to win this fight, regardless of Kamal Shalorus' age.

Miller hasn't lost since 2009 and is riding a six-fight win streak in the UFC. His only two losses are to Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard. This is a bit of a trap fight for Miller, but so was the last one. I see him being adequately prepared for Shalorus' power shots and taking this fight by a fairly one-sided decision.

My prediction: Miller

Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller

I have to believe that Marquardt is pretty upset with his last performance with Yushin Okami. He never really got anything going and has been berated by fans and Dana White alike as choking in big fights. If he doesn't make a statement tonight I'm not sure where he ends up in the middleweight title picture.

Miller is a trooper to take this fight at the last minute, but he'll need more than his home town crowd to get him through this fight. Marquardt has an edge in this fight in every capacity. Wherever this thing goes, I can't find a competitive advantage for Miller. I see him having trouble standing with Marquardt and getting stopped about halfway through the fight.

My prediction: Marquardt

Mirko Filipovic vs. Brendan Schaub

After Cro Cop's infamous fight with Frank Mir at UFC 119, it's hard to tell exactly how much he wants to be competing at this stage in life. He looked uninterested throughout the fight and was eventually stopped with a knee from Mir. An energetic Brendan Schaub might be too much for him right now.

Cro Cop is still undeniably dangerous. His legendary left head kick still haunts Wanderlei Silva's nightmares. Even still, I have to like Schaub in this fight. He's too big and athletic for Cro Cop in 2011. Schaub was able to dismantle Gabriel Gonzaga and hasn't really been in trouble since being knocked out by Roy Nelson coming into the UFC. I hate to say it, but I think this might be it for the former Pride legend. All I want is one last axe kick landed and I can say goodbye forever.

My prediction: Schaub

Luiz Cane vs. Eliot Marshall

This one is a tough call. Eliot Marshall is making an attempt at getting back in the UFC's good graces and Luiz Cane is one loss away from being cut. Marshal typically wins fights with a grinding top game-heavy style, but he doesn't want to put on a dull showing if he can stand it. I don't think he necessarily has to submit Cane, but Marshal needs to bring it in this fight.

Cane hasn't won a fight since 2009. He needs to get his act together before being relegated to the minor leagues. Known for his striking, Cane should be able to outpoint Marshall if he can keep this fight on the feet. I just think Marshall is too much to deal with on the ground. I like Marshall in a close one.

My prediction: Marshall

Anthony Njokuani vs Edson Barboza

This looks like a tough UFC debut for Njokuani. While Barboza should be more than accommodating to make this a standup fight, that's not necessarily a good thing for Njokuani. Anthony is one of the least well-rounded fighters in the UFC and is primarily a striker. The problem is that Barboza is better at that, too. Barboza is just the better fighter in every regard.

I'm fine with this fight. It should be pretty one-sided, but I'm cool with it. The UFC wants to make sure they maximized return on spectacular knockout potential by showing this fight on Spike and not others. As long as they both bring it, I'm happy with whatever result the MMA gods magic down to us.

My prediction: Barboza

Ricardo Almeida vs. Mike Pyle

Aside from a setback loss to Matt Hughes, Almeida has looked pretty good since making the drop to welterweight. He's going to be the stronger of the two and could have the edge grappling, but I actually like Mike Pyle here. Pyle absolutely handled the much-hyped John Hathaway back in October largely due to a flawless execution of his gameplan. If Randy Couture and he can craft another tailor-made for Almeida, he should take this fight.

Pyle has the edge as far as preparation and training camps. With guys like Gray Maynard, Martin Kampmann and the aforementioned Couture working with him on a daily basis, Pyle's preparation shouldn't be a concern. Add that to a new and improved diet courtesy of Mike Dolce and Pyle should have to gas for three rounds, something of a concern for Almeida.

My prediction: Pyle

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Gleison Tibau

Kurt Pellegrino was on a roll until he ran into George Sotiropoulos at UFC 116. After suffering a knee injury in the first round of the fight, Pellegrino was forced to undergo surgery to repair a torn meniscus and replace an ACL. How he bounces back from that setback is key. Pellegrino is a seasoned vet, but he has a tall order in Gleison Tibau.

We have one of the smaller lightweights in the division in Pellegrino taking on one of the biggest in Tibau. If Pellegrino can drag this fight into the later rounds by forcing Tibau to work and expend his energy he could have a good enough showing to take a decision. I just don't have warm and fuzzy feelings about that knee. I see Tibau's size being the difference.

My prediction: Tibau

Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland

There isn't much love for Ian Loveland in this fight and you can expect that trend to continue right here. Simply put, it's just hard to pick against Joseph Benavidez right now. Benavidez looked great in his rebound fight with Wagnney Fabiano as he was able to choke out the 3rd degree Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. I'm just not sure how Loveland gameplans for this fight.

Benavidez is sure to take notice of Loveland's recent victories which include four stoppages in five fights. I think Loveland's only shot in this fight is to try to catch Benavidez on the way in. If Loveland can stymie his opponents takedowns he can use his reach and four-inch height advantage to try to pick him apart. Still, I have to go with Benavidez in this one.

My prediction: Benavidez

Erik Koch vs. Raphael Assuncao

It's pretty disappointing that this fight likely won't make the air, especially after Erik Koch's spectacular headkick KO of Francisco Rivera at WEC 52. He's one of the top rising prospects at featherweight and fights out of the innovative Roufusport camp along with Anthony Pettis and Pat Barry. His brand of striking is going to be tough to deal with for someone like Assuncao.

This is a bit of a classic 'striker vs. grappler' matchup and I expect Assuncao to want to get his young opponent to the mat as soon as possible. If he can succeed, I think he can smother Koch with his top game and eek out a decision win. If Koch can keep this thing standing or consistently get off the mat to get the fight where he wants it, he should be able to catch Assuncao. I'm going with the 22-year-old kid.

My prediction: Koch

Nick Catone vs. Costantinos Philippou

I wish there were more positive intangibles in this fight but it doesn't look to be the case. Will Catone's 14-month layoff be worse than Philippou's short notice and UFC jitters? I'm not sure. While Philippou comes from a good local camp in Matt Serra and Ray Longo, he's likely only here because of his locality. In fact, Philippou has never competed outside of New Jersey and this will be his first fight outside of Atlantic City's 'Ring of Combat' promotion.

It's hard not to go with Catone in this fight. Ring rust will be an issue with his layoff, but I don't expect him to have a tough reacclimation. He's been here before. Catone's decision loss to Mark Munoz is looking better by the day and he has the reps in the cage. I think Catone finally gets his first stoppage victory in the UFC.

My prediction: Catone

BJ Penn vs. Jon Fitch

B.J. Penn was never really beat up at 155lbs, but there were a few times when he clearly became frustrated fighting in the welterweight division. Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes have each been able to give Penn trouble over the years, and if anyone can replicate that kind of top-game control it's Jon Fitch.

Hughes forced Penn to fight off his back at UFC 63, eventually taking the fight by technical knockout after Penn suffered a rub injury. At UFC 94, St. Pierre carried a similar gameplan into the cage and Penn was once again bullied by a much bigger, prominent wrestler. Viewers could clearly see the frustration on Penn's face during both fights, leading many to believe that the former champ could be forced to mentally check out if put under enough duress.

I can only assume Jon Fitch is planning to try something similar. He certainly has the style to carry it out. If Fitch can hold someone like Thiago Alves down for three rounds, I don't see why he can't do the same to a much smaller fighter like Penn. BJ's takedown defense is on another level entirely, but I see Fitch using constant pressure in the clinch until he eventually gets the fight down where he wants.

Fitch hasn't dropped a fight since 2008, going 5-0 since his title shot with GSP. He dominates fighters for three rounds, using his superior wrestling to overpower his opponents and drag fights into decisions.That's exactly how I see this fight going.

My Pick: Fitch

Michael Bisping vs. Jorge Rivera

Thank God someone decided to promote this card. I didn't think it would be Jorge Rivera, but I'll take it. His series of hype videos are putting progressives like Chael Sonnen to shame and Bisping is certainly doing his part to make us believe this fight has become personal. I don't really think Bisping cares about a few videos, but he's playing along nicely. Their stare down at yesterday's weigh-ins was epic. An 'A' for effort all around.

As the actual fight goes? I think it is tailor made for Michael Bisping to be successful. His opponent likes to keep it standing and isn't an elite grappler. If Bisping can stay on the outside and force Rivera to box with him he should be able to pick him apart. Even though he dropped his fight with Wanderlei Silva, the Brit hasn't looked bad since being brutally knocked out by Dan Henderson at UFC 100. His fight with Dan Miller looked like a one sided sparring session and he looked pretty impressive in his last fight against Yoshihiro Akiyama.

I just have a bad feeling about Rivera. He's nearing 40 years of age, hasn't fought in 11 months and isn't close to the same kind of athlete as Bisping. I want to believe, but I don't. Other than the slim chance of landing flush with a strong overhand right, I'm not sure where Rivera has a competitive advantage in this fight.

My Pick: Bisping