Be advised that this column uses math pretty heavily, and discusses BABIP in some detail. If you'd like some reading material on BABIP to catch up, I'd recommend the Fangraphs Sabermetric Library entry as well as this piece from Big League Stew. I've also hyperlinked the Fangraphs Sabermetric Library in-text, so most of the confusing stuff should have some references.

One of the (many) scapegoats for the offensive woes in Detroit this season has been Jhonny Peralta. Peralta, who was hitting .250/.333/.388 heading into today's game, was a key cog in Detroit's offense last season, when he hit .299/.345/.478. A few people have argued that that slash line was a career high for Peralta, and that Tigers fans should expect some sort of decline this season. I understand where that argument comes from, but after examining Peralta's batted ball data, I have to disagree. Instead, this year's Peralta has shown himself to be a dramatically different hitter than he has been in past years; not a worse hitter, but a different one.

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I had started to write a piece like this myself, but I'll cede the space to Tokarz after he was an optimist for like the first time ever. - Kurt

Thought experiment: If I told you three months ago that Austin Jackson would be the best player (by WAR) on the Tigers and, in essence, as valuable to Detroit as Matt Kemp is to the Dodgers, how would you have reacted? My guess is that I would have been laughed off the site.

And yet here we are, in May, and both of those things are true. Jackson is worth 1.3 more WAR than second-place Andy Dirks and third-place Miguel Cabrera. He's also worth just 0.1 WAR less than Matt Kemp, which pretty much makes the difference between them a wash. Statistically, as of May 16th, Austin Jackson is the third best center-fielder in baseball and the fourth best position player (behind Josh Hamilton, David Wright and Matt Kemp).

Of course, there's little doubt in my mind that Jackson will regress a little bit. Not only are we dealing with small sample sizes, but Jackson has a BABIP of .378, and that's probably unsustainable. His HR/FB rate of 10.6% is also a career high, and I could see a bit of regression there. But the question shouldn't be "Is Austin Jackson going to regress?" but rather "How awesome is Austin Jackson?" The answer is clear: pretty darn awesome.

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UPDATE: Lions release a statement on Fairley drug bust:

We are aware of the incident involving Nick Fairley.

We hold all of our players to a high standard of behavior and the recent charges against Nick and Mikel Leshoure are not consistent with those standards. We are extremely disappointed.

We will continue to gather information and will have further comment at the appropriate time.

ORIGINAL POST

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2011 Detroit Lions first round pick:

Detroit Lions defensive lineman Nick Fairley was arrested this afternoon in Mobile on a 2nd-degree marijuana possession charge, according to records at Mobile County Metro Jail.

I'm not exactly thrilled about drug laws in the US, but it is against the law. Fairley is now the third member of our 2011 draft class to get busted smoking up (the other two being, of course, Mikel Leshoure and Johnny Culbreath). My question: what the hell is going on, and why are our players doing this kind of stupid crap? Surely the team's legal department has other things to concern itself with than foolish behavior like this.

As Kurt and I have mentioned in comments and on Twitter, we're going to have two official fantasy leagues this year. The league will be drafting on Saturday the 24th (time to be determined) and it is a 14 team roto league with traditional5x5 statistics. I'll be the editor (or former editor) competing in this league, and I'll be looking for 13 other BYB members. Shoot me an email at tokarz.david at gmail (stylize that as necessary) with your screen name, and I'll try to get us up and running as soon as possible.

I'll give priority to long-standing members and people who aren't in the H2H league, but get your emails to me soon. Good luck!

Last season I took a monthly look at prospect performance in the minor leagues, pointing out noteworthy statistical performances, whether they were positive or negative. The goal was to look at prospects that might be doing well on the surface and to delve deeper to see how well they were truly doing. It was a lot of fun, and I'd like to revisit it for a season retrospective on some Tigers minor leaguers. This performance review will be split into two posts: one examining players in the high minors and one examining some in the low minors. 

What might I mean by stars and scrubs, you may be asking? A star is a player that puts up eyepopping statistics in the minor leagues. His scouting report might not be so good, but his performance is incredible and deserves attention. A scrub is a player whose performance looks horrible on paper. In some cases, that isn't such a horrible thing (Nick Castellanos had a scrub-caliber April but is still a top prospect). Either way, the performance merits looking at- often times to deliver a reality check. 

So who are this edition's three stars and three scrubs? The best of the high minors and the worst of the 40 man roster? You can find out after the jump!

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Since I hate ridiculous free agent propositions or trades, I decided that it would make sense to be proactive and start a place where people could compete for the most reasonable free agent trade or acquisition. As such, I unveil the "Sensible Acquisition Thread", where we come up with reasonable solutions to Tigers problems. The rules for this thread are as follows:

1) You cannot argue that the Tigers should acquire any player that has been to more than one All-Star game, unless that player is injured or post-prime. I know Mr. Illich has signaled he would be okay with a large acquisition, but we have forty fanposts discussing those. 

2) You can only spend $20 million dollars on a free agent. Not $20 million per year. $20 million on the entire contract. 

3) Trades cannot include either Jacob Turner or Nick Castellanos. Trades can only include one of the following players: Drew Smyly, Andy Oliver, Robert Brantly, Casey Crosby. 

4) If you suggest a trade, you must provide justification as to why the team trading a player wants to get rid of him. (Example: the Marlins want to trade Logan Morrison because they hate him). Trades must also be reasonable (which means we probably aren't going to grab Morrison- make that a separate post if you like that idea). 

5) The following players are untouchable: Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Alex Avila, Jhonny Peralta. If you suggest trading a major piece (Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello) you also have to fill that gap.

6) Every position is fair game, but you can't move a player we already have (so no moving Peralta from SS).

Below the jump are my choices for acquisitions I think might make sense. 

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When I began researching Yankees position players to figure out who scared me the most, the benchmark that I focused in on was an ability to hit right-handed pitching. The Yanks absolutely mash lefties (we're talking .805 OPS against lefthanded starters) but do slightly worse against right-handers (only .779 against). 20 points of OPS might not seem like a lot, but against a top offense it can make a world of difference. The good news here, is, of course, that the Tigers feature a rotation that features five right-handers. So to me, the most terrifying Yankee had to be a player that could mash our right-handed starters and play good defense. 

This eliminated a few guys right off the bat. Russell Martin is a mediocrity, Derek Jeter can't play defense anymore (if he ever could), Nick Swisher is scary but not as dominant as other hitters in the Yankee lineup and Brett Gardiner isn't so much a masher as a scary good leadoff guy. As I worked my way down the list, I was stuck between two players: an all-star second-baseman with Hall of Fame potential who wasn't quite as good with the leather, or an all-star center fielder who could make plays at the plate and in the field. I chose the center fielder. Which makes me sad.

Because I don't want to see a pinstripe-clad Curtis Granderson anywhere near the Detroit Tigers. 

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I remember the 2006 ALDS very fondly. I missed the Game 4 clincher due to a debate tournament, but was able to get a box score on an internet enabled phone (yes, they did have them in '06) belonging to a friend. I remember being thrilled at the final result, but more than that, I marveled at Jeremy Bonderman's masterful performance. He no-hit the Yankees for five innings, and put in more than a quality start. I still have a copy of that game, and from time to time I'll watch Bondo devastate the Yankees with a power fastball and his wicked slider, that devastating pitch Rod nicknamed "Mr. Snappy". 

Why do I bring this up, Yankees fans might ask? Simple. Mr. Snappy's back. And this time, it's a hard-throwing reliever named Al Alburquerque who throws it. Alburquerque went from a no-name minor league free agent signing to Detroit's seventh inning fireman in a matter of weeks, and a good chunk of that success is due to a wicked slider. 

So why should Yankees fans be afraid of Alburquerque? Simple: he's a hard throwing righty with excellent stuff and eye-popping strikeout rates... that Leyland will call on when you need runners most. Let's break down Alburquerque below the jump.

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Which Tigers hitter is most fearsome? That's an easy question to answer. Miguel Cabrera is an absolute beast, a monster of a man who makes contact, can take a walk when teams don't want to pitch to him and hit the baseball a long way when those same teams don't want him too. 

Which Tigers fielder is most fearsome? Also an easy question. After all, everyone knows that 75% of the earth is covered by water... and the other 25% is covered by Austin Jackson. 

And so it would be easy to expect Yankee fans to dread facing Cabrera at the plate and Jackson in center. That dread is by no means misplaced. But there's another player the Yankees should not want to face at all, whether at the plate or in the field. His name is Alex Avila. And he is the best catcher in the American League.

Avila is the total package: he's a well rounded left-handed hitter without a very obvious platoon split, he hits for power and average, he gets on base and his defense is solid to above average. Let's break these down after the jump to explain to the Yankees just why Avila should give them chills.

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I know, I know. The MLB draft was months ago. So why look at it in late August, especially when there's the wrapup of the minor league season to focus on? Simple: the draft matters, but the First Year Player signing deadline is even more important; it's hard to discuss players without knowing that the Tigers control them. And the signing deadline happened to be last week, August 15th to be exact. 

So how did the Tigers do in the draft? A lot of fans, used to big splashes, were disappointed in the results. Some experts weren't too enthused either: John Sickels called it a "super conservative" draft class of affordable players, while Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus called it "boring", again, because it focused on low-upside college guys. But even a boring draft has it's bright spots, and so I'd like to go through and look at some of the more interesting players that Detroit picked up at the signing deadline.

Note that this piece will not feature player statistics; most of these guys are playing in short season ball or have a couple plate appearances in Low-A, and that won't tell us anything about their value. In small samples any player can look amazing or terrible (let's call this the Bryan Holaday rule). 

Round 2, Pick 76: James McCann, C, Arkansas

Instead of drafting a high ceiling player that fell due to signability concerns, the Tigers drafted McCann, a junior out of the University of Arkansas. This wasn't a sexy pick, but McCann shouldn't be punished because he doesn't ooze with tools. McCann has a good glove and good arm, and he is major league ready defensively with potential plus upside. The bat isn't terriffic; his track record is a bit poor, but he might hit for average with a bit of pop. He's also athletic, which is a nice bonus. Upside: starter. Likely: good backup who can give Alex Avila some rest. 

Round 3, Pick 106: Aaron Westlake, 1B, Vanderbilt

I really like this pick as a solid addition at weak position in the minor leagues. Westlake has lots of power from the left side and is very patient, which means that he should offer a fair amount of walks. He probably won't hit for average, and there is a good chance he is stuck at first base (and therefore blocked), but if he can move to left field he would be a much more valuable commodity in this organization. Upside: starting left fielder with a good power bat. Likely: starting first baseman who hits for a fair amount of power but doesn't offer much in terms of average.

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Sunday

AAA: Lehigh Valley 2, Toledo 1 (Game 1)

This game was odd- it was the conclusion of Saturday's rainout- and therefore two of Toledo's starters pitched. Thad Weber and Brayan Villarreal both went three innings while walking one and striking out two. Timo Perez was 2-2 with a double and two walks. 

Toledo @ Lehigh Valley postponed (this game was scheduled for Sunday)

AA: Portland 9, Erie 5

Casey Crosby gave up three runs (two earned) over five innings, striking out six and walking three. Audy Ciriaco was 2-4 with a double and a triple. 

A+: Lakeland 6, Brevard County 2 (Game 1)

Trevor Feeney gave up two earned runs in six innings, striking out six. Rob Brantly was 2-3 with a double while Tony Plagman homered.

Lakeland @ Brevard County cancelled (Game 2)

A: West Michigan 3, Great Lakes 2

Alex Burgos gave up an earned run in six innings, walking three and striking out four. Jeff Rowland was 2-5 with a homer.

SS: Connecticut @ State College cancelled

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AAA: Indianapolis 4, Toledo 3

Fu Ti Ni, still in the rotation, gave up four earned runs in 6.1 innings, striking out three and walking two. Clete Thomas was 2-4 with a triple. 

AA: Erie 12, New Britain 2

Jay Voss gave up a single run in seven innings on a solo home run and picked up the win against New Britain. Jamie Johnson and Brandon Douglas doubled, while Audy Ciriaco tripled. 

A+: Lakeland 8, Daytona 4

Mark Sorensen gave up three earned runs in seven innings. Avisail Garcia was 2-4 with a double and a walk and Rob Brantly doubled. 

A: Dayton 10, West Michigan 1

Josue Carreno gave up seven runs (six earned) in 6.2 innings, walking one and striking out seven. James Robbins homered.

SS: Auburn 6, Connecticut 5 (Game 1)

Brennan Smith gave up five runs (three earned) in six innings. Dean Green was 4-4 with a double and a walk. Zachary Maggard was 2-4 with a double. 

Auburn 6, Connecticut 3

Jeff Barfield gave up five earned runs in two innings. Samir Rijo was 2-3 with a double, while Tyler Collins was 2-4 with a double. 

AAA: Toledo DNP (off-day)

AA: Erie 3, New Britain 2

Casey Crosby went seven innings, giving up two earned runs while walking three and striking out four. Jamie Johnson was 2-4 with a triple. 

A+: Daytona 4, Lakeland 3

Trevor Feeney struck out seven and walked three in 5.1 innings, allowing two earned runs in the process. Rob Brantly was 2-4 with a homer. 

A: Dayton 3, West Michigan 2

Kyle Ryan (last week's Midwest League Pitcher of the Week) gave up three earned runs in six innings, striking out five while walking one and giving up a home run. Hernan Perez doubled twice. 

SS: Connecticut @ Auburn postponed (rain)

BOX

KEY PLAY

That would be Alex Avila's sixth-inning homer, which put the Tigers over the top. Of course, nobody could blame you if you preferred the Ryan Raburn homer in the eighth that cemented the victory.

KEY STAT

New Tiger Doug Fister's pitching line: W, 7 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 2 ER. Would more strikeouts be nice? Probably. But it's nice to not have to reach for the antacid when the 5th starter's spot comes up anymore.

KEY THOUGHTS

Well, that's a hell of a way to endear yourself to a fanbase (David Purcey, take notes). Doug Fister took the ball and handed in seven quality innings in order to keep Detroit in the game. More importantly, he kept Detroit's weak bullpen out the game for quite a while. Fister had a rough couple of innings in the middle of the game, though defensive miscues (looking at you Wilson Betemit) made things a bit rougher than fans probably would have liked. Of course, Fister was probably okay with sacrificing some defense for the run support he received, as he picked up his fourth(!) win on the season. 

And that offense did a pretty good job tonight. Three singles and a walk in the second inning yielded two runs (probably more than Fister was used to). A Miguel Cabrera double in the third scored Austin Jackson for yet another run (though the double made Magglio Ordonez's double play earlier that inning hurt even more). Alex Avila (2-3, HR) and Ryan Raburn (3-4, HR) added crucial late innings homers later in the game to put it out of Texas' reach, though Jose Valverde tried to make it interesting by giving up a homer to Mike Napoli in the ninth. 

Speaking of Alex Avila, though, Jim Leyland's decision to have his All-Star catcher bunt in the fourth inning (so that Jhonny Peralta and Raburn could advance) was absolutely baffling. Taking the bat out of the hands of one of the most valuable hitters on the Tigers is bad enough, but to do so when he was followed by two significantly worse hitters in Wilson Betemit and Austin Jackson cost the team, probably on the scoreboard. 

AAA: Syracuse 17, Toledo 2

Eew. I don't really want to recap this one. Short version: the offensive star was Will Rhymes, who was 1-1 with three walks and the star on pitching was... nobody. I guess Jose Ortega only gave up two earned runs (in two innings), so that makes him the best of the worst. 

AA: Erie 6, New Britain 5 (12 innings)

Brooks Brown gave up four runs (three earned) in five innings. Jamie Johnson was 3-6 with a double, while Justin Henry also added in three hits.

A+: West Michigan DNP (off-day)

A: West Michigan 9, Dayton 6

Alex Burgos went 6.1 innings, striking out ten batters while walking only one. He gave up two earned runs. Nick Castellanos was 3-4 with a double while Luis Alberto Sanz was 2-5 with a pair of doubles.  

SS: Auburn 13, Connecticut 3

Wilsen Palacios gave up eight runs (six earned) in 4.1 innings. Tyler Collins was 2-4 with a home run. 

AAA: Syracuse 8, Toledo 3

Andy Oliver went 4.2 innings, giving up six runs (five earned) while striking out seven and walking two. He also gave up two home runs. Will Rhymes was 2-4 with a double. 

AA: Erie DNP (off-day)

A+: Lakeland 11, Fort Myers 2

Zach Samuels struck out three batters in four innings, allowing a pair of unearned runs. Cole Nelson struck out four in three innings (he's really taken to bullpen work well). Wade Gaynor was 4-5 with three doubles, Jordan Lennarton homered and walked twice while Avisail Garcia and Rob Brantly both homered. 

A: West Michigan 6, South Bend 1

Kevin Eichhorn gave up one run in nine innings, walking one and striking out two. He also drew seventeen groundouts to six flyouts. James Robbins was 2-4 with a homer. 

SS: Batavia 5, Connecticut 3

Luis Angel Sanz struck out eight and walked two in six innings, giving up four runs (three earned). Tyler Collins was 2-3 with a double. 

Sunday

AAA: Toledo 8, Syracuse 5

Ramon Garcia struck out five batters in five innings, surrendering one earned run. Scott Thorman homered and Danny Worth doubled. 

AA: Erie 5, Akron 1

Rob Waite walked two and struck out one in five scoreless innings. Bryan Pounds was 2-5 with a double. 

A+: Lakeland 9, Fort Myers 4

Shawn Teufel threw seven innings and gave up two earned runs. Eric Roof was 3-5 with a double, while Avisail Garcia was 2-4 with a double and a walk.

A: South Bend 3, West Michigan 1

Victor Larez gave up three earned runs in six innings. Luis Alberto Sanz doubled. 

SS: Connecticut 8, Batavia 2

Thomas Collier struck out seven and walked two in 5.2 innings. He gave up an earned run. Jeff Holm was 2-4 with a home run. 

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With Twitter all abuzz about a trade between Seattle and Detroit that nets the Tigers starting righthander Doug Fister and right-handed reliever David Pauley, Tigers fans might be wondering a bit about the return. I'm here to discuss David Pauley, the relief piece Detroit is getting. Kurt will have a piece on Fister soon as well.

The 28-year-old Pauley was probably Seattle's backup plan for closer. Pauley features a good sinker, as well as a fastball, a change-up and a curveball. He's mainly a ground-ball guy with good control. He has experience in the rotation as well, having started 15 games last year. He was overexposed there, though, and his home run rate jumped to 13%.

This year, Pauley has a 2.15 ERA, with a 3.32 FIP and a 3.92 xFIP (controlling for home run rate). His strikeout rate is marginally up, at 5.63 (as compared to 5.06 last year), while his walk rate has dropped ever so slightly. His home run rate, however, has really plunged from 13% last year when Pauley was pitching out of the rotation to a Safeco-aided and unsustainable 4%. His groundball rate is okay, at 49%, but as a groundball inducing pitcher, it would be nice if that rate was a little higher.

Pauley's true talent level probably lies around his xFIP, but with his ability to pitch as either a one inning back of the bullpen type or as a long reliever (given his pedigree as a starter), that still has value, especially in a weak Detroit bullpen. He is an upgrade over several of the players the Tigers have tried to fit in the bullpen this year.

Hello Lookout Landing! My name is David Tokarz, and I'm a contributor over at Bless You Boys (I mainly do minor league content). Just thought I'd stop by and give you a bit of information on the prospects coming to Seattle in the Doug Fister/David Pauley trade. 

Francisco Martinez, 20 year old 3B

Martinez is one of our top prospects. A young, toolsy third baseman out of Venezuela, Martinez was pushed quickly (he's in AA as a 20 year old this year) but has reacted to the challenge admirably. He's got quick bat speed and the line drives tend to fly off his bat, though he's also got some power potential which he'll probably realize as he grows. His speed is above average, and his arm and hands mean that he'll probably stick at third base, provided he gets the time to work on his glove. His stock was rising reasonably fast in Detroit, and we'll be sad to see him go. 

Casper Wells: 26 year old OF

Wells is a really good piece- he's a little old for a prospect, but entering his prime. Earlier this year, as an extra outfielder, he created 1 WAR in 125 plate appearances and various appearances as a defensive replacement. His glove could play in center, but he's a plus defender in a corner spot. His bat's pretty good as well: he's got 20 home run potential and decent patience, though the strikeout rate is (and will remain) high. Tigers fans know that this kid needs a chance to start, so he'll probably get that in Seattle.

Charlie Furbush, 25 year old LHP

Furbush rocketed through the farm system last year with really good numbers, especially in the strikeout department. Don't let that fool you; his ceiling is that of a #4 starter or a long reliever/swingman type. His delivery is very deceptive, which lead to most of the strikeouts, but he gets roughed up the second time through the order (hence the likelihood he becomes a swingman). As far as stuff, Furbush features a fastball that sits 89-91, a pretty good curve and a useable change. He does have a tendency to give up home runs, but Safeco should help with that.

Anyways, the package looks pretty good on your end (at least to me). Cheers!

Late breaking news on the Twitters: SI's Jon Heyman reported last night (around 1:45 in the morning) that bigtime Tigers pitching prospect Jacob Turner was getting the call to the major leagues. Given that Duane Below is the probable starter tomorrow, Turner is most likely going to take his place in the rotation. Jason Beck followed up at about 2:05, saying that Turner was not with the Tigers, but that he was not pitching for Erie either.

A refresher course on Turner: his fastball sits in the low to mid 90's (think 92-94) and touches 96 on a regular basis. Turner's best secondary offering is a 12-6 curve that looks to be a potential plus pitch in the major leagues, and he also features a changeup that could become an above average pitch as well. His command is advanced for his age. While the scouting reports all look good, Turner still needs to polish his entire game.

This year, Turner has put up a FIP of 3.90 and an ERA of 3.48 at AA Erie. His strikeout to walk ratio, at 90 K's to 32 BB's in just under 115 innings, is good, but he only strikes batters out at a rate of about 19%. That isn't the dominant strikeout rate most people would expect of a top prospect, but it still isn't horrible. There are, however, concerns about his readiness, which are warranted. It is important to remember, that despite the praise that has been heaped upon him, Jacob Turner is a 20 year old who has never pitched an inning above AA ball. 

Based on the information available, there are essentially two options as to what happens to Turner now. Either Turner will take Below's spot in the rotation on Wednesday, as Heyman indicated in his original tweet, or the Tigers are very close on a major trade that will send Turner away from the organization. The plot thickens, but we'll know more tomorrow morning.