SB Nation User Blog: DeRat

Compensatory Picks Announced

DeRat — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 21:27:48 -0000

The Owners have announced the 2008 draft Compensatory Picks.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/...

After factoring in the Compensatory Picks, the Cowboys picks will be:

1st - 22 via Cleveland, and 28
2nd - 61
3rd - 92
4th - 126
5th - 163
6th - 167 via Miami
7th - 235

Cowboys Draft Board Exposed ?

DeRat — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 15:25:10 -0000

Draftdaddy.com has a link asking the question "has a camera man exposed the Cowboys draft board"?

The picture on the link shows an individual in front of a white board with DB's (Both CB's and Safeties) ranked.

Here is the picture:

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/6...

Senior Bowl practice pics and videos

DeRat — Sat, 26 Jan 2008 06:40:35 -0000

Pictures and videos, courtesy of Rivals.

http://collegefootball.rivals.com/co...

2008 Draft Picks Set

DeRat — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 05:48:00 -0000

With the Giants win over Green Bay, the Cowboys second 1st round pick moves up to pick #28. Remember that there are only 31 picks in the first round this year, due to New England getting caught cheating.

The draft format changes this year. Day 1 will only be rounds 1 and 2. Day 2 will be rounds 3 through 7.

Assuming no trades before the draft, the first day picks will be:

Round 1
Pick 22
Pick 28

Round 2
Pick 30 (#61 overall)

Assuming their are no compensatory picks awarded within the first 3 rounds then:

Round 3
Pick 29 (#92 overall)

Roy Williams CAP impact

DeRat — Sun, 20 Jan 2008 23:32:54 -0000

WHAT WOULD BE THE CAP IMPACT OF CUTTING ROY

Early this week I read a post that stated cutting Roy would only be a 3 or 4 million CAP hit to cut him. Based on the 11.1 million signing bonus he received as part of his 2006 contract extension, my initial thought was that this sounded too low. So I asked Mr. Google for some details on Roy’s contract. A hit on Rotoworld listed the 11.1 mil signing bonus and salaries for 2006 through 2010 due to his 2006 contract extension.

Based on these numbers, I made a post stating the following conclusion: If the Cowboys cut Roy after June 1st 2008 the Cowboys would get a NET INCREASE in their 2008 CAP, and a net Zero effect on the 2009 CAP.

BTB regular Burt D responded with some salary CAP numbers from Usatoday that didn’t quite jive with the assumptions I’d made from the Rotoworld data. The base salary was the same on both sites, but the CAP numbers weren’t as expected.

Back to Mr. Google. I suspected there may be some residual affect from his rookie contract, and I wanted to confirm (or refute) the data from Rotoworld and Usatoday. After several hours of web searches (I’ll never admit exactly how much time I spent on this) I wasn’t able to find any data that refuted the salaries listed on Rotoworld and Usatoday. The total value of the contract listed on Rotoworld (30.1 million) IS WRONG. Scores of hits listed the new money as 24 million and the total value as 25.2 million (math confirms this number). The Usatoday site INCORRECTLY lists an 11.1 mil signing bonus for both 2006 and 2007 (There was only one 11.1 mil signing bonus, but it was paid as 5.5 mil in 2006 and 5.6 mil in 2007). I also found a detailed breakdown of Roy’s rookie contract on BSPN. (see below).

A quick reread of "Salary CAP FAQ" on askthecommish.com found the following:
FAQ 1.7e – the signing bonus is evenly pro-rated over the length of the contract. FAQ 1.8b – when a contract is renegotiated, and the original contract had remaining years with a pro-rated signing bonus, the remaining pro-rated bonus is allocated just as if there were no renegotiation. Any new signing bonus will be pro-rated over the years of the renegotiated contract (i.e. there can be a CAP hit from an old pro-rated bonus and a new pro-rated bonus in the same year). FAQ 1.9b – teams can cut players after June 1st and stretch their salary cap liability over the next 2 seasons (NOTE FAQ 1.14: the NFL also allows up to two veterans per team to be cut in March and treated CAP wise as though cut in June). FAQ 1.10 – Voided years in contracts cause any amount of the signing bonus that was allocated to the voided year (or years) to be accelerated and added immediately to the team salary CAP. FAQ 1.11b - Money paid for option buyouts are considered signing bonuses.

Roy’s rookie contract was for 7 years. It included a 4 million signing bonus, and salaries ranging from 1 million to 2 million per year. It also included 2 voidable years (based on playing time), and a 5.3 million buyout option following his first year that significantly reduced his base salaries. The final results: 4 million signing bonus prorated over 7 years (571 K / yr). Salary: (2002) 1 mil, The following March the buyout option was exercised by the Cowboys, (2003) 367 K, (2004) 617 K, (2005) 867 K, (2006) 1.11 mil. The 2007 and 2008 years were voided.

Finally, let’s see if we can calculate Roy’s CAP impact, and see if it matches up with the Usatoday CAP numbers.
2002
Signing bonus proration (571 K) + 2002 salary (1 mil) = 1.571 mil CAP hit. Same CAP value listed on Usatoday.
2003
Original contract signing bonus proration (571 K) + new signing bonus from the buyout (5.3 mil / 4 yr = 1.325 mil) + 2003 salary (367 K) = 2.263 mil CAP hit. Close, but a difference of $74,000 from Usatoday database?
NOTE: If you apply FAQ 1.10 guidance, the 2007 and 2008 voided year’s proration should have been accelerated into the 2003 CAP numbers. It’s clear that the Usatoday salary database did not do this. When we get to 2007 their data is consistent in that they do include a proration from Roy’s original signing bonus (i.e. 571 K). I have to conclude that the guidance from FAQ 1.10 did not exist in 2002/2003, or the Usatoday data is wrong on this point. Absent any other evidence, I will assume the Usatoday data is correct and I will add a signing bonus proration of 571 K into the 2008 CAP calculation.
2004
Bonus proration (1.325 + .571 = 1.896 mil) + 2004 salary (617 K) = 2.513 mil CAP hit. Same difference of $74,000 from the Usatoday database.
2005
Bonus proration (1.325 + .571 = 1.896 mil) + 2005 salary (867 K) = 2.727 mil CAP hit. $37,000 difference from the Usatoday database.
2006
The contract extension introduces a new signing bonus proration into the calculation (11.1 mil / 5 yr = 2.22 mil /yr) and reduced the 2006 salary to 585 K. 2006 is the last year for the 5.3 mil buyout option proration. So the 2006 CAP hit: Bonus proration (1.325 + .571 + 2.22 = 4.116 mil) + 2006 salary (585 K) = 4.701 mil. Same difference of $74,000 from the Usatoday database.
2007
Bonus proration (2.22 + .571 = 2.791 mil) + 2007 salary (595 K) = 3.386 mil CAP hit. Largest difference yet from the Usatoday database, $161,000 ?
2008
If the Usatoday salary database correctly included the signing bonus proration from Roy’s initial contract into the 2007 CAP data (vs. accelerating 2007 and 2008 voided years into the 2003 CAP year per FAQ 1.10), then the last proration from his initial contract signing bonus will be in 2008 (Additionally, note that the salaries take a huge jump). Bonus proration (2.22 + .571 = 2.791 mil) + 2008 salary (3.72 mil) = 6.511 mil CAP hit.
2009
Bonus proration (2.22 mil) + 2009 salary (4.4 mil) = 6.62 mil CAP hit.
2010
Bonus proration (2.22 mil) + 2010 salary (4.05 mil) = 6.27 mil CAP hit.

I wish I could explain the differences (37K, 74K, and 161 K), but Usatoday doesn't explain in detail where they got their numbers (and my head hurts). If any of you know of reliable sources of information on the structure and details of players contracts, please share them.

CONCLUSION
If Roy is cut this year after June 1st (or the Cowboys use 1 of their 2 veteran exemptions and cut him in March and apply the CAP hit as though done after June) the numbers will be:
2008
Bonus (2.22 + .571 = 2.791 mil) minus the Scheduled CAP charge (6.511 mil) = NET GAIN of $3.72 million (Roy’s scheduled salary) to the 2008 CAP. Note I said "NET", the Actual CAP charge would be the 2.791 million for a player no longer on the roster.
2009
Remaining accelerated Bonus (2.22 + 2.22 = 4.44 mil) – the Scheduled CAP charge (6.62 mil) = NET GAIN of $2.81 million. Again, the Actual CAP charge would be the 4.44 million bonus acceleration.
2010
Off the books.

If Roy is cut this year after March and the Cowboys applied the full CAP hit in 2008, the numbers will be:
2008
Bonus (2.22 + 2.22 +2.22 +.571 = 7.231 mil) minus the Scheduled CAP charge (6.511 mil) = NET CAP INCREASE of $720,000 to the 2008 CAP. Again, the Actual CAP charge would be the 7.231 million.

LINKS

Rotoworld 2006 contract extension details
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...

Usatoday NFL salary database
http://asp.usatoday.com/sports/footb...

Nick Eatman article of 2006 contract extension
http://www.dallascowboys.com/news.cf...

EPSN details of Roy’s initial (rookie) contract
http://espn.go.com/nfl/nfc/draftsign...

Salary CAP FAQ
http://www.askthecommish.com/salaryc...

Gil Brandt All-Rookie Team

DeRat — Tue, 01 Jan 2008 16:53:22 -0000

Gil Brandt's 2007 all-rookie team.

The article starts with some interesting stats on the playoffs 2000-2007.

Of the 23 position players Gil names to his All-Rookie team:
14 were first round picks.
6 were second round picks.
1 third round pick.
1 fourth round pick.
1 undrafted free agent.

Three special teamers including Nick Folk. Way to go NICK !

See the full article here:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story;jsessi...

Oops...Cleveland pick NOT # 20

DeRat — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 19:41:16 -0000

Seeing several web sits listing Cleveland at a later pick then 20 got me to looking at the rules again (see below).

Then checked last years draft order. The same thing happened last year.

Denver finished 9-7 but didn't make the playoffs. New York did make the playoffs at 8-8. Since the Giants didn't advance to the Superbowl, they went to the draft spot (20) behind the other 8-8 clubs. Denver went to the top of the 9-7 clubs (21). The remaining 9-7 clubs were slotted in draft order based on when they exited the playoffs. Dallas and KC drafted ahead of Seattle because they exited the playoffs the first round. Seattle drafted last of the 9-7 clubs because they advance to the divisional rounds (even though they had a much lower Strength of Schedule then the other 9-7 teams).

From NFL.com
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebrea...

the last paragraph:
TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING
If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:

The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.

Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.

If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.

What this means for the Cleveland pick:
Unless Tampa Bay or Washington advance to the Super Bowl, they will be slotted ahead of Cleveland in the 2008 Draft Order. Assuming neither advance to the Superbowl, the Cleveland pick will be #22.

How ironic!

Past Dallas Drafts Poor

DeRat — Fri, 27 Apr 2007 05:24:03 -0000

In early April, Fred Jones of thehuddlereport.com performed an analysis of the 7 drafts from 2000 – 2006 for all 32 NFL teams.

The Cowboys didn’t fair well.

The Cowboys have 20 players drafted during that time period still on the roster (37.0%; ranks 20th of the 32 teams). There are an additional 11 players with other teams (20.4%; ranks 30th of the 32 teams). There are 23 players drafted that are no longer in the NFL (42.6%; tied for WORST in the NFL).

In all fairness to the current scouting staff, 5 of the 7 drafts in this analysis were under scouting director Larry Lacewell. The 2005 and 2006 drafts have been led by scouting director Jeff Ireland.

I went back and looked at the last two drafts. Of the 16 players drafted in the last two years, 12 are on the current roster (75%; this includes Montavious Stanley, who was cut and re-signed). There are 2 players on other teams (12.5%, Rob Petitti and Skyler Green). There are 2 players no longer in the NFL (12.5%; Justin Beriault and EJ Whitley).

Drafting poorly results in (1) spending large amounts of Free Agent bucks to plug holes (2) eventually CAP HELL, and (3) massive cuts and a 5 year rebuilding plan (that never ends if you don’t draft well).

I wonder if NFL owners have done a cost-benefit analysis on increasing the size of their scouting staffs and background investigation services to the point were the team could be successful on 100% of its picks in rounds 1-4, and at least 50% for rounds 5-7. In the long run, you save Mega-dollars not having to sign Free Agents.

Maybe thats not really the problem? How often do you hear about a prospects "POTENTIAL" or "UPSIDE", yet if a team focused on evaluating past production, those same prospects may not grade so high. Its nice for a prospect to have upside, but ONLY if their production warrants their high grade. I think the Cowboys have often become so enamored with a prospects potential, they overlook a lack of production (or lack of production over a long period, ie "one year wonders").

Another interesting perspective discussed on NFL Network recently is a scouting staff will spend 3 or 4 years evaluating the prospects. A coach or owner will see a highlight tape of player X and override the scouting staffs assessment that player Y is the best prospect. A similar thing happens when a prospect has an incredible pro day or combine performance. The prospects "resume" of game film should always be the primary analysis tool. Workout data should only come in to play when you have otherwise equal grades on two prospects. The better workout should then be used to grade one above the other.

IMO, the key to sustained success in todays NFL is to consistently restock your roster via the draft and only occationally fill a hole with a UFA. In fact the NFL rewards that philosophy.

The way the NFL compensatory draft pick system works, if you loose players to Free Agency, and don’t sign UFAs (or sign UFAs of "lower value"), then the league "compensates" you with additional draft picks. So.....if you draft well, don’t need to sign UFAs, occasionally choose not to re-sign your own (because two years ago you drafted a backup just as good) and another team signs them, then the NFL rewards you for drafting well by giving you additional draft picks. Think about that.

Lets hope this draft tops the 2005 class (the best Cowboys draft in a long time).

Peterson needs surgery !

DeRat — Thu, 26 Apr 2007 20:28:37 -0000

Don Banks of SI.com is reporting that the Combine Medical Evaluation of Adrian Peterson revealed that he re-broke his collarbone in the Fiesta Bowl.

He will need Post-Draft surgery to repair the break as the bone had not healed between the Fiesta Bowl and the combine.

All NFL teams have been aware of this since the Combine.

King Jerry, having a bit of river boat gambler in him, feels he will fall out of the top ten because of the injury concerns.

The article went on to say worst case this may be another Charles Rogers type of injury. A collarbone that will just not heal.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...

Medical Issues affecting the Draft

DeRat — Wed, 25 Apr 2007 18:49:59 -0000

Profootball Weekly has released a list of players that have medical issues that could affect their draft status.

These players may slide,
OR
be completely taken off some teams boards.

http://profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFL...

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