As most of you know, I was not in favor of the Milton Bradley signing.  I am a big believer in clubhouse chemistry and didn't like the fit or Gameboard's lengthy injury history.  I'm also not a fan of people who suffer from "Victim's Syndrome".  Nonetheless, Milton Bradley is wearing Cubbie Pinstripes and claiming that he is the victim of unfair expectations, so I decided to investigate the possibility that he is truly a victim, at least in respect to his time with the Cubs.

 

First, I've made a few assumptions for the purposes of this exercise:

 

Assumption #1

Milton Bradley is a very high character individual.  He is universally loved by teammates and umpires alike, has never received so much as a speeding ticket from the police, and devotes many hours to charitable endeavors.  Ernie Banks is in awe of Bradley's character.

 

Assumption #2

Bradley is a very healthy individual.  He has no chronic injury issues and has never been on the DL.

 

Assumption #3

Bradley is a gold-glove caliber CF.

 

Assumption #4

Bradley's contract is very modest for a player of his stature.  He is, if anything, underpaid.

 

 

Background

The Cubs have spent the past several years searching for a LH power hitter to protect Aramis Ramirez in the lineup.  Since their 1B and LF are RHBs and very few MIs or CFs are power hitters, the logical place to play such a player is RF.  Their current RF, Kosuke Fukudome has proven to be more adept as a table-setter than as a #5 hitter.  Jim Hendry has decided that he must sign a FA as the asking price for LHB RFs on the trade market was too high.

 

 

The Candidates

I have attempted to make a list of people I thought were available last off-season either as FAs or on the trade market -- except that I included Z just for fun.  All of the candidates are LHBs or SBs.  I am ignoring the fact that some might have demanded too much money or had NTCs or might have required more prospects in return than the Cubs had.  All (except Furcal, Z, and maybe Winn) would normally be thought of as middle-of-the-order run producers.

 

Measuring the quality of a run producer is a highly debated topic.  Old school folks favor RBIs; SABRmetricians favor almost anything but RBIs.  Having some power is important, though, since one of the objectives is to force teams to pitch to Ramy.  Also, I am a believer that some players have a knack for driving in runs that others do not.  Not being a stat geek, I decided to look at three things:  AB/RBI, AB/HR, and AB/XBH.  (Note that these are career numbers for all players.)

 

Player.................AB/RBI..................AB/HR...................AB/XBH

Helton..................5.402......................19.88.......................7.434

Dunn....................5.650......................13.80.......................7.870

Ibanez..................5.936......................24.79........................9.439

Abreu...................5.941......................27.43........................8.862

G. Anderson........6.242.....................29.53......................10.094

Kubel...................6.266.....................24.67.........................9.774

JD Drew...............6.337.....................20.79........................8.874

Gameboard.........7.364......................28.04.....................10.244

Hermida..............8.052......................29.67......................11.052

Teahen................8.392......................42.11......................10.714

Winn....................9.345.....................55.72......................11.358

Z...........................9.945.....................27.35......................12.156

Furcal................11.282......................57.55......................13.066

 

 

In terms of AB/RBI, Bradley is 8th best out of 13.  He's also 8th out of 13 in AB/HR, though it must be a bit embarrassing to be worse than a pitcher.  He's also 8th of 13 in AB/XBH.  (Though I'm not including the numbers, he is also 8th in SLG.)  In other words, when being compared to the other candidates for the position of "Ramy's Bodyguard", he is in the bottom half.  Does this mean that Milton Bradley is a bad baseball player?  Absolutely not, because Milton Bradley is very good at not making outs.  I'm not including the numbers, but Bradley's .372 OBP is 5th best behind Helton, Abreu, Drew, and Dunn.  Milton Bradley is very good at reaching base; he's just not quite as skilled at bringing other players home.  He is a very useful player as long as no one expects him to be Ramy's Bodyguard.

 

Most teams expect to get their power from their "corner guys" (LF, RF, 1B, 3B), and have their "middle guys" (CF, 2B, SS) do the job as table-setters.  In the Cubs' case, their LF, 1B, and 3B do supply plenty of power when healthy; the only problem is that they are all RHBs.  Their CF and SS have done a good job of setting the table; 2B has been a vortex of suck this year.

 

So...

 

Is it possible that Milton Bradley is actually, at least in one respect, a victim?

 

I say "yes".  Milton Bradley is the victim of Jim Hendry's atrocious ML scouting department.  Let's look at Hendry's attempts to fill in the black hole that has been RF post-Sammy.

 

2005  Jeromy Burnitz, age 36

2006  Jacque Jones (more of a speedy CF than a power-hitting RF)

2007  Cliff Floyd (ideal candidate except that his body was completely broken down)

2008  Kosuke Fukudome (more of a table-setter)

2009  Milton Bradley (more of a table-setter)

 

That isn't a very pretty list, and it speaks volumes about Hendry's inability to be objective when trying to improve his team.  (See Heilman, Aaron for further details.)

 

Now, let's return to assumptions 2 and 3.  Milton Bradley is not healthy, and has not been healthy for several years.  In fact, he suffers from chronic issues with both knees and both hamstrings.  As a result, he is no longer the fine CF he was when he first came up.  He now has a CF bat and a RF glove.  That's not his fault; he is what he is, and his injury history is very well known.  It is certainly something that Jim Hendry should have known, especially since he claims that he did a lot of homework before signing Gameboard.  In that respect, Milton Bradley is indeed a victim.

 

Jim Hendry, I'm waiting for an answer.....

 

As we sit in front of the Hot Stove (or read BCB) and talk about which free agents the Cubs should pursue, we often say something like “Don’t go after Joe Blow.  He’s 34 years old.”  Yet Joe has been consistently productive over the last eight years, still plays good defense, and he bats left-handed.  Will he be productive for us, or will his production suddenly drop off a cliff when we sign him?

 

I’ve been thinking about this dilemma for a while, and I’ve come up with the concept of “baseball age”, an attempt to reconcile the fact that Andruw Jones seems to be washed up at age 31 and Mark DeRosa seems to still be improving at age 33.  

 

Baseball age is made up of several components, which I am listing below.  If I were better at math, I would try to quantify this; perhaps someone else already has or would like to try.  I am listing these in what I believe is their order of importance:

 

1.  Chronological age.  Obviously, this is still the most important component.  As the body ages, it does not recover from stress and injury as quickly, so that muscles and joints don’t function quite as well on a daily basis.

 

2.  Conditioning level.  This includes cardiovascular conditioning, flexibility training, baseball-related strength training and plyometrics, baseball activity (e.g., throwing), and weight management.  Players who are well conditioned and not overweight place less stress on their joints than players who aren’t and can handle a higher workload more efficiently.  I also believe that players who have maintained their bodies well from the the time they signed their first pro contract age better than those who start at age 30.  Thus, I would expect Jason Marquis to last longer than Ryan Dempster, who had his “come to conditioning Jesus” meeting only last year.  Cliff Floyd lamented last year that he hadn’t taken better care of himself in his younger years; he seems washed up at age 35.

 

3.  Milage.  I would measure this using innings played for position players, innings pitched for starting pitchers, and appearances for relief pitchers.  Guys who come up at age 21 and play 155 games per season often seem old at age 32.  Guys like DeRo and Plácido Polanco, who start their careers as bench players, still seem strong at age 33.  Career bench players like Alex Cora and Henry Blanco seem to last forever.

 

4.  Turf.  Vladimir Guerrero is exhibit A.  José Vidro is exhibit B.  I would guess that every inning on turf is worth three on grass.  If you can quantify this accurately, the MLBPA would like a word with you.

 

5.  Injury History.  Both the number and type of injuries count.  Broken bones, torn ACLs, and torn ulnar collateral ligaments usually heal without incident.  Once a pitcher is completely back from Tommy John surgery, it becomes a non-factor.  How many fans even remember that Chipper Jones had surgery for a torn ACL in 1994?  Other injuries, like a bulging disc in the back, chronic hamstring pulls, or a torn rotator cuff, seriously degrade a player’s performance and shorten his career.

 

6.  Position.  Catchers take more of a beating than other position players.  Relief pitchers take more of a beating than starting pitchers.  Base stealers take more of a beating than power hitters.  Middle infielders get hit more often than third basemen.  Outfielders’ legs get more wear and tear than first basemen’s.  And Aaron Rowand running into a br...., uh, let’s not go there.

 

7.  Major Tools.  Speed is usually the first tool to start fading, so players who rely on their speed (e.g., Juan Pierre, Chone Figgins) age very rapidly; players whose major tool is hitting for average and/or power often do very well in their mid to late 30s (e.g., Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, Luis Gonzalez, Manny Ramírez).  Players whose main asset is fielding range (e.g., Adam Everett) age faster than players whose main defensive asset is their arm and/or hands (e.g., Chipper Jones, Dwight Evans).  Players whose bat allows them to move down the defensive spectrum will be valuable longer than those whose entire value comes from being high on the defensive spectrum.

 

8.  Intelligence.  Intelligent players adapt by using their experience to compensate for diminishing physical skills.  An experienced shortstop will compensate for losing a step of raw range by using scouting reports more effectively to help him position himself.  An intelligent pitcher will develop a new pitch to compensate for losing a few mph on his fastball.  Players who don’t adapt (e.g., Marcus Giles) find themselves unwanted at a fairly early age.

 

9.  Mental Toughness.  As a player ages, it becomes more difficult to push himself to do the extra conditioning work that is needed to compete in a young man’s game, especially as he sees his children growing up.  Jon Lieber seemed to lose the mental toughness needed to keep his weight within reason and his conditioning level high over the last two or three seasons; this manifested itself by his reporting to Spring Training seriously overweight this season and leaving the team in September after he went back on the DL.  He appears to be done.  John Smoltz, on the other hand, seems doubly determined to come back from his shoulder injury and pitch again and he continues to keep himself in excellent physical condition.

 

10.  Scarcity.  This applies primarily to left-handed relief pitchers.

 

11.  Luck.  I have no other explanation for Nolan Ryan’s ability to throw 95 mph at age 40.  ‘Nuff said.

 

 

Feel free to either come up with a formula to calculate whether Jim Edmonds, Bobby Abreu, or Raúl Ibañez would be more useful to the Cubs in 2009, or flame away at the whole concept.

I think that all of us know that the Cubs had a very good year with a very disappointing ending.  Most of us think that Jim Hendry needs to tweak the roster a little bit; a few people want to see the team return intact, and a few want a major overhaul.  (I am in the "few tweaks" camp.)

I believe that the Cubs need a left-hand-batting, power-hitting outfielder, but they don't grow on trees.  I'm not so sure about needing a leadoff guy (I'm in the minority who likes Sori there).  Knowing that it is easy to Hendry's job on a blog, and much harder to do it for real, I thought I would suggest a few possible trades that I think are plausible and beneficial to the Cubs and let everyone have fun with it.

 

My initial assumptions:

1.  Mark Texeira signs with the Yankees.

2.  Brian Roberts rejects the contract extension offered by the Orioles.

3.  CC Sabathia signs with the Yankees.

4.  Rafael Furcal re-signs with the Dodgers.

5.  Orlando Hudson signs with the Mets.

6.  Ryan Dempster re-signs with the Cubs.

7.  Any player involved who has a NTC will waive it for a fee of no more than $1M.

8.  All contract are traded as-is; no cash changes hands to "even things up".

9.  The goal of winning the World Series in 2009 takes priority over building for the future.

10.  The Cubs don't have an unlimited payroll; it will be about $130M and Hendry might have to trade someone for salary reasons.

 

Would you make any or all of the following trades?

1.  Derrek Lee for Brian Roberts.

2.  Mark DeRosa and Sean Marshall for Brian Roberts.

3.  Ted Lilly for Yunel Escobar.

4.  Chad Gaudin for Kelly Johnson.

5.  Aramis Ramírez for Cory Wade, Andre Ethier, and Blake DeWitt.

6.  Rich Harden and Carlos Marmol for Brad Hawpe.

7.  Chad Gaudin for Luke Scott.

8.  Jason Marquis for Luis Castillo.

9.  Mark DeRosa for Randy Winn.

10.  Rich Harden for Hank Blalock.

11.  Josh Vitters for Brian Giles.

12.  Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Shane Victorino.

13.  Felix Pie for Nick Swisher.

14.  Geovany Soto for Hunter Pence.

 

Flail away!

 

The Tribune is reporting that DeRo will undergo a surgical procedure tomorrow that will hopefully cure his irregular heartbeat problems.  

Cubs physician Stephen Adams said DeRosa will have an EPS (electrophysiology study) performed on him Thursday by Dr. Alan Kadish, a cardiovascular electrophysiologist at Northwestern Memorial Hospital. The procedure involves putting a catheter in a vein in the groin which is then threaded into the heart to induce an irregular heartbeat (atrial arrthythmia).

"Depending on what they find with this diagnostic study, they will undergo what's known as a radiofrequency catheter ablation, or RFCA," Adams said. "And hopefully, depending upon what they find, it will be curative of his past problems of jumping into the (irregular heartbeat)."

The low-voltage, high-frequency electricity causes an abnormal heart rhythm and permanently burns off  small areas of tissue, preventing them from generating electrical impulses, and thus curing the individual. Adams said the procedure should take 1-2 hours, and that if all goes well, DeRosa will return to Phoenix by Sunday and could continue his baseball activities by the beginning of next week.

"By the end of (next) week, hopefully he'll be going full throttle again," Adams said.

I just hope that Lou doesn't try to push him back into the lineup too soon.

DeRo, best wishes for a very speedy recovery!

While I await some heat from the Hot Stove, I thought I'd make some predictions for the 2008 opening day roster.  I invite the entire BCB community to predict along.  Feel free to make your predictions based on money, statistics, rumors, or gut feeling.  Hopefully, Al can resurrect this diary in March.

I predict that on/before opening day:

1.  Kerry Wood will be a RP for the Cubs.
   
2.  Mark Prior will be non-tendered, and will sign elsewhere as a FA.
   
3.  At least one of Jason Marquis and Ryan Dempster will be traded.
   
4.  If the Cubs sign Kaz Matsui (or Luis Castillo), Mark DeRosa will be traded.
   
5.  If the Cubs sign Fukudome, both Jacque Jones and Matt Murton will be traded.
   
6.  If the Cubs do not sign Fukudome, they will sign Trot Nixon, platoon him with Murton, and trade JJ.
   
7.  Felix Pie will be the CF no matter what he does during ST.
   
8.  Ryan Theriot will be in the lineup, either at SS or 2B.
   
9.  Bobby Howry will be the closer.  Wood and Carlos Marmol will be the setup men.
   
10.  Geo Soto will be the C, Blanco will be the backup, Koyie Hill will be at AAA, and Jason Kendall will not be resigned.
    
11.  Sam Fuld will be at AAA, but will play for the Cubs before Sept. 1.
    
12.  Eric Patterson will be traded.
    
13.  Jeff Samardijza (sp?) will be called up in Sept.
    
14.  Sean Gallagher will start the season in the AAA rotation, but will be the first SP callup.
    
15.  Kevin Hart will make the team as a reliever.
    
16.  Sean Marshall will be the 5th starter.
    
17.  Mike Fontenot will not make the opening day roster.
    
18.  One of the five members of the rotation will have been signed as a FA or obtained in a trade.
    
19.  There will be at least one Japanese player on the roster.

Happy predicting!

OK, it's been a week now, so I'm putting the wood into the Hot Stove and grabbing the matches.

The Cubs definitely need a power-hitting RF or CF, and possibly an upgrade at SS.  A #2 starter would allow Lilly, Hill, and Marquis to move down a notch.

However, we all know that the Free Agent market stinks other than A-Rod, who won't be coming here.  So... that means that this winter will be a busy trading season; it also means that the Cubs will have to give up something to fill their holes.

Below are most of the guys on the 40 man roster, divided into "tradability" categories.  I invite everyone to see what they can come up with to improve the Cubs for 2008.

Free Agents - can't be traded
Jason Kendall
Cliff Floyd (option)
Steve Trachsel (option)
Kerry Wood

Very Tradeable - good player, favorable contract
Ryan Dempster
Kevin Hart
Rich Hill
Bob Howry
Carlos Marmol
Sean Marshall
Geo Soto
Mark DeRosa - Yankees interested if A-Rod leaves

Tradeable
Scott Eyre
Ted Lilly
Jason Marquis - healthy innings-eaters always have value
Michael Wuertz
Daryle Ward
Jacque Jones - proven he can play CF
Matt Murton

Some Value - marginal players, good throw-ins
Neal Cotts
Will Ohman
Ronny Cedeno
Mike Fontenot
Ryan Theriot

Untradeable
Angel Guzman - health
Carlos Zambrano - NTC
Henry Blanco - health
Derrek Lee - NTC
Angel Pagan - health
Aramis Ramirez - NTC
Alfonso Soriano - NTC

Good Prospects - unproven
Sean Gallagher
Billy Petrick
Carmen Pignatiello
Jeff Samardzija
Jake Fox
Eric Patterson
Felix Pie

Who stays, who goes, and who comes in return?