In light of Matthew's recent post about general managers, I wanted to take a comprehensive look at Jack Zduriencik's transactions and what they reveal about the kind of general manager he is. Let me warn you: this is results-based analysis with my personal opinions mixed in. I know that trades and free agent signings should mostly be evaluated by what was known about the players at the time. However, GMs and organizations have far more information about players than we do, so the results of trades and signings - how the players actually perform - are important, too. Over a long period of time, front offices, whatever bad breaks they suffer, bear the ultimate accountability for the results on field. Jack Zduriencik has been the Mariners' GM since October 2008 - nearly five years. That is enough time to form some conclusions about the strengths and weaknesses of his front office. I have put my conclusions at the end.

I expect many commenters to take issue with much of what I say, and that's totally fine. My personal opinions and commentary are secondary to my main motivation for this FanPost, which is to put all of GMZ's transactions in one easy-to-read spot and to let you provide your own personal analysis and evaluation of his record. I hope you read the rest of my post and share your conclusions.

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Since we need a new off-topic, I thought I would raise this question: what technology or electronics-related products have you recently bought that you have found useful or noteworthy? Here are few suggested topics:

-Blue Ray players with Netflix/internet capabilities: what have people's experiences been with these?

-Headphones: what are your favorite brands of headphones (either big wraparound ones or ear buds or anything in-between)?

-Digital Cameras

Feel free to discuss anything other OT-guidelines approved thoughts that you might have swirling around in your head.

Sooo... it's snowing all over Western Washington - even along the coast.  Be careful on the roads, etc.  Here's the WA-DOT's traffic map and snow advisory warnings in case you need to get home.  Maybe you can talk about other memorable winter storms you've been in.  Or about beer.  You seem to like talking about beer.  What was that line of Coach's? "Beer beer beer I am a Lookout Landing reader I drink beer bahhhhhh"? or something like that.  It's snowing!  It's snowing!  It's snowing!  It's snowing!  It's snowing!  It's snowing!  It's snowing!  It's snowing!  It's snowing!  It's snowing!  It's snowing!  It's snowing!  It's snowing!

Many narratives written about the AL Cy Young balloting have tended to present it as a clash between sabermetric, Moneyball-style thinking and a Murray Chase-style obsession with W-L records.  The reality, as many people have pointed out (Keith Law and Dave Cameron come to mind), is that the voters prioritized basic pitching statistics like strikeouts, walks, ERA, innings pitched, and opponants' batting average over won-loss record to an unprecedented but unsurprising degree.  While Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young because he dominated these traditional "baseball card" stats, many writers have noted that Felix probably would not have won if the vote turned on stats like WAR, FIP, tRA, or SIERA.  Matthew, for example, said in the latest podcast that he probably would have voted for Cliff Lee or Justin Verlander over Felix.  That made me curious to see just what the sabermetric stats have to say about the Cy Young contenders, so I made a spreadsheet with the key pitching statistics that a sabermetrically-inclined voter would consider.

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Here is a heads-up for everyone: ESPN 710 is broadcasting Dave's call of Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS (commercial-free, too!).  Since the broadcast of the game that you can watch on MLB.com or iTunes is the nationally televised broadcast and not the Mariners' broadcasters broadcast, this will be the first time many of us have heard Niehaus call the entire game.  You can listen online at ESPN 710's website or click this link for the media player to pop up directly.

I have recently gotten Netflix, and after scouring the IMDB top-250, I've found that I've seen nearly all the films on it that really fire my interest (about 50%).  I went through the top-50 movies by genre and added interesting looking ones to my netflix account queue, so now nearly all of the movies in it are foreign or old.  Also, I have, against all good judgment and taste, become hopelessly addicted to Katy Perry's new song "California Girls" after some scoundrel (I can't remember who) posted the lyrics in the game thread for I don't even know what reason.  So here's a new off-topic so we don't crash Faux's.

1.  What are the most awesome, wonderful, blow-your-mind type movies that you've seen that aren't on the IMDB-top 250 list or the top-50 by genre lists?

2.  What are most bizarre or out-of-left-field songs that you've become addicted to?

3.  What are your favorite little-known places (shops, views, restaurants, parks, neighborhoods, trails, etc.) in the Seattle area (or whatever you like)?

4.  What, for parents, are the most important pieces of advice about parenting (from books, friends, family, Dr. Phil, etc.) that you've recieved - particularly about raising infants?

5.  What are the best ways to creatively cook a plain chicken breast?

In mid-April, a friend of mine is taking her first trip to Seattle (for three days for a conference).  While I have no shortage of opinions about what to do in my hometown, I wanted to hear yours as well.  What do you show friends who visit here?  What do you think are the coolest, most fun, or most rewarding places in Seattle to show someone who's never been here before?  This could be anything - parks, museums, neighborhoods, buildings, restaurants, cultural institutions, nature outings, you name it.  What things to see do you think best represent Seattle? Here are a few places I like, either for touristy purposes or just because their cool:

Parks: Olympic Sculpture Park, Volunteer Park, Washington Park Arboretum, Magnuson Park

Neighborhoods: The International District, Ballard, Fremont

Cultural Institutions: Museum of Flight, Seattle Asian Art Museum, The Seattle Aquarium (note: what's the Seattle Art Museum like during normal times - I tend only to visit during the big exhibitions).

Tourist Sights: The Pike Place Market, The Ballard Locks and Fisherman's Terminal, Seattle Center

Restaurants: Kisaku, Red Mill Burgers, Tamarind Tree, Taste of India, Phnom Penh Noodle House, Ray's Boathouse

And talk about whatever else is on your mind. 

Since I have no way of getting updates beyond the box score, I thought I'd throw this up so people could follow the GTE and get a reasonably good idea of the game. 

Here's Jay's game thread post on USSM, and here's the MLB.com live-ish box score as well.

Also, despite his deep, abiding attachment to the French Revolution (he often privately expressed wild, enthralled feelings about the French Revolution even after the Terror and the rise of the Directory), nothing alarmed Thomas Jefferson more than the prospect of France's repossession of the Louisiana Territory during the first term of his presidency.  Jefferson called the Louisiana Territory "The one single spot on the globe, the possessor of which is our natural and habitual enemy."  New Orleans was the port through which the produce of almost half of America's population flowed.

Although he probably hated the British more than any other prominent public figure of his time, Thomas Jefferson, in a message meant to reach French ears, even told the American diplomat Robert Livingston: "The day that France takes the possession of New Orleans seals the union of two nations who, in conjunction, can maintain exclusive possession of the ocean.  From that moment, we must marry ourselves to the British fleet and nation."

I recently lost a friendly wager with my roommate over the results of a sporting match, so  I need to cook us and some guests a big dinner as payment.  I'm feeling a little homesick, so I really want to cook a Vietnamese or Thai meal.  I don't have much experience with cooking, but I have wits enough to pull off some fairly elaborate meals if I do my homework and have good recipes (I made a chicken curry meal a few weeks ago).  

I plan on using chicken, and I have ready access to a good deal of cilantro, garlic, ginger, vegetables, noodles, and a big stir fry pan.

Also, in this thread, feel free to consider:

-What recipe(s) I should use for the meal I'm cooking this weekend?

-What are your favorite, most especial recipes (and maybe the story of how you found it)?

-What are you favorite types of food and restaurants the Seattle area (or wherever in the world you live, for that matter) - perhaps which neighborhoods or cities have your favorite restaurant scenes or general attractions and vibe as well?

-Does anyone who has grown up and lives in a big city use travel guides for it (e.g. Frommer's, Rough Guide, etc.) to find things to do there?

-What do the statistically or football-ly inclined think of Nate Silver's new Soccer Power Index at ESPN.com (a good summary of it may be found at Dave Cameron's hang out, full methodology here)

-What new blogs, fiction, or LL-safe non-fiction books have you recently discovered?

-What's the best piece of advice anyone's ever given you?

-Anything else you'd like to talk about?

Hey, BtB. I posted this comment last week in response to some silly questions from ma main man 50 Cent, and I'll excerpt it below because I wanted to ask this community this question: can any MLB team put together any trade package that is equal to the projected net value of  Evan Longoria, a 7 WAR/season player under contract for a maximum of $50 million over the next seven years (until 2016).  Projected net value here means a player's projected worth in dollars in the future (WAR an all that) minus the salaries he's under contract or expected to receive.  Anyways, here's what I wrote on Lookout Landing. Maybe it will help get the conversation going.  I'm particularly interested to hear people's opinions on how much of such a trade could be made up of prospects valued by the BtB/Victor Wang style minor leaguer value calculator

As Dave Cameron said,

[From 2009-2014], Longoria will make $21 million, and then the Rays will have two more options that would keep him in TB at $11 million per year for 2015 and 2016. Crazy. He’s going to be paid like a league average back-end starting pitcher through a potential Hall-Of-Fame prime. Agents, this is the template of what not to do with your best client going forward.

Let’s estimate that Longoria is a hall-of-fame caliber player – let’s say 5 wins a year on average, although he’ll probably be even better.

I’m bad at this, but.. Assuming a somewhat low 1.07 per year salary inflation.
…………………………………………………………………..5 wins……….
2002 – $2.6m / win 2009: $4.5m/win…………$22.5m……..
2003 – $2.8m / win 2010: $4.8 m/ win………..$24m…………
2004 – $3.1m / win 2011: $5.1 m/ win……….$25.5m……….
2005 – $3.4m / win 2012: $5.5 m/ win………..$27.5m………
2006 – $3.7m / win 2013: $5.9 m/ win………..$29.5m…….
2007 – $4.1m / win 2014: $6.3 m/ win………..31.8m………
2008 – $4.5m / win 2015: $6.7 m/ win…………33.5………..
……………………………..2016: $7.1 m/win…………..35.5………….

If Longoria played at a five win level, he’d be paid 50 million for services rendered worth 229.5 million, or about be worth on average about $32.8m per year) – and worth 275.2 millon at 6 war per year, and 321.4 million if he played at a 7 WAR per year level.

Let’s go with At 5 WAR/y, he’s a $180 million dollar value. What can we trade for him?
Two years of Felix, as a 5 WAR pitcher, will probably be worth about $22.5m + $24.0m = $46.5
46.5 minus 20m Salary = 26.5m in total value
Three years of Gutz, as a 4 WAR player, = $61.6 million
61.6 million minus, say, 11.6 million = 50 million

26.5m + 50 m = $76.5 million.

That means that The net value of Felix and Gutierrez, our two most valuable players, is only about 40% of what Longoria is worth. Using one of those fancy Beyond of the Boxscore or Victor Wang prospect calculators, I’m not sure if we could find $105 million in value if we mailed them our top ten prospects as well. There might be literally nothing the mariners could practically trade the rays of equal value as Longoria.