Every year, I put together a top prospect board for myself in preparation for the NFL Draft. (At least when I can, that is.) This year, I had to do a mad scramble over the past month to put this list together. After watching games that I missed - or re-watching games I'd already seen - my three full DirecTV DVRs are empty, and I'm ready to publish something in preparation for the 2012 NFL Draft on Thursday.

Players were graded using a draft system that Brian, kaisertown and I came up with a couple years ago. It's based on Dan Kadar's draft criteria, but simplified and streamlined for the purposes of producing a numerical grading system. It's not perfect, but no system is ever perfect.

There might be a couple shocker in my grades. That's alright in my view. I go by what I see, and only use other online opinions to check on my own work. Some players - Amini Silatolu in particular - were graded off video due to lack of game film (Silatolu missed the Senior Bowl with an injury). Overall, though, my grades are a reflection of what I've seen and my opinions of these players, all of whom I hope become great professionals. Continue after the jump to view my Top 150 for the 2012 NFL Draft.

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First round receivers bust at a pretty alarming rate. I dug into a ten year sample size to find out if that's just my perception, or reality. 2000-2009 is the sample size, so as to not unfairly grade a draft class within three years.

I used three different categories to separate receivers, each with a non-statistical definition. The first category is “stars,” meaning that the receiver is a primary target for the offense, and the defense has to change from standard coverage schemes to account for the receiver. The second category is “average,” meaning that the receiver is good and contributes, but may not be the primary target, and the defense can play standard coverage packages. The third is “bust,” meaning that the receiver never panned out.

In those ten years mentioned above, 43 receivers have been taken in the first round. Of those 43 receivers, there are 12 “stars,” 11 “average,” and 20 "busts." 53% of receivers in the first round over ten years make an impact on their team. But only 28% are elite.

Breaking it down even further, most of the busts are inside the top 16 picks of the first round. Of the 20 busts, 13 have been from picks 1-16. Only 7 busts have come from picks 17-32. The breakdown is pretty even for “average” receivers. Six have come picks 1-16, and five from picks 17-32. 8 of the 12 “star” receivers have come from picks 17-32. Only four “stars” have come from picks 1-16: Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Plaxico Burress.

Suspicion: if a team is drafting inside the top 16 picks, and don't have an opportunity to draft a difference maker, as in the four listed above, the team is well advised to pass and select another player. For fans calling for Buffalo to draft Justin Blackmon (if he falls) or Michael Floyd, the question is: do you see either of those two in the Johnson/Fitzgerald category? If not, Buffalo takes a huge risk in selecting one of them.

Around Bowl Season, I published the first Jaeger Plan. The theory was Stabilize, Fill, and then Build. The idea was to resign Buffalo free agents, then sign free agents, and the draft to build. The majority of the first two steps are complete, though in the original post, I didn't know if Buffalo would resign Stevie Johnson, and thought they would resign Demetrius Bell and Bryan Scott. I also didn't think Mario Williams would make it to free agency, and thought Buffalo would have to pull off a Jared Allen-esque trade to acquire him.

Over two months later, let's review the bidding:

- Buffalo fired George Edwards, elevated Dave Wannstedt to defensive coordinator, and installed a fast-flowing 4-3 defense. Buffalo also hired David Lee, a noted quarterback developer.

- Buffalo resigned Johnson, Scott Chandler, Kirk Morrison, Garrison Sanborn, Rian Lindell, tendered Kraig Urbik and Chad Rinehart, and restructured Terrence McGee's contract. Only Bell and Scott were allowed to test free agency.

- Buffalo signed Mario Williams.

- Indianapolis committed to Andrew Luck and cut Peyton Manning. Washington traded to acquire Robert Griffin III in the draft. Matt Flynn has signed with Seattle.

- Miami hired Mike Sherman as their offensive coordinator.

- Buddy Nix has made public that he doesn't feel there's a pass rusher worth the tenth pick. Nix's only other comments that indicate where he's thinking is that the team is going to add an offensive tackle somewhere in the draft. And Buffalo scouts reportedly spent a lot of time at Arizona State, and I'm sure it wasn't for Vontaze Burfict.

- The best deep threat receivers signed somewhere other than Buffalo.

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Author's note: I wrote this story without being aware of Buddy Nix's comment that Mario Williams will play left end. While that means that my positioning of Williams in the models is incorrect, the effect will be the same. Teams will still have to "pick their poison" on who to double team.

The addition of Mario Williams to the Buffalo Bills' defensive line creates a dilemma for opposing blocking schemes. The new "Williams Wall," consisting of Mario and Kyle Williams - along with Marcell Dareus - limits those blocking schemes.

The trickle-down effect means that opposing offenses will therefore be limited. With five blockers and four defensive linemen, who does the offense double team and, more importantly, who does it single block? If the offense chooses to double-team more than one Bills defender, it takes receivers out of the passing game. That's the dilemma: to double-team and reduce receivers, or not to double-team and risk losing one-on-one match-ups along the line. This is obviously a good problem for the Bills to have.

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Some thoughts on the Bills, based on the following, all from BuffaloBills.com:

Nix comments on pass rushers

Gailey comments on pass rushers

Bills meet with Osweiler

Chris Brown video interview with Nix

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So, we did the nightmare draft. What about the our dream off-season? Post your dream off-season here.

There's a couple stipulations:

- You have to adhere to the salary cap. The 2011 salary cap was $121 million. For 2012, we'll estimate $130 million. You're dream off-season can't go over that number. Here's a link to Buffalo's 2012 cap number. Use the top 51 number, which puts the current team spending at $95.3 million.

- The 2012 rookie class estimation, roughly based of the 2011 rookie first year numbers, is $11 million per year. Whoever you sign in free agency can't take the total for the team over $119 million. Otherwise, you can't sign the rookies.

- No draft pick trading to change the $11 million on rookies. Mostly because if you trade, you're likely trading up in the draft, where the contract will be bigger. To level the playing field, trades that stay draft pick-to-draft pick even out in terms of dollars.

- You can change the $11 million for rookies if you trade a pick. The pick you trade lets you go down by the value of the previous year's pick. So if you trade a second rounder, use Aaron Williams' contract number.

- All intra-draft pick trades must be within 100 point value according to the Jimmy Johnson trade value table.

- If you cut someone from the current roster, you must factor in the dead cap money.

- Don't forget to factor in $8 million in dead money.

- For free agents, if you can find their current deal numbers, include them. If not, just use the deal of the closest applicable AFC East team. The link to the Bills cap numbers also includes the rest of the AFC East.

- No insanity. You can sign Mario Williams, but his deal needs to be Haynesworth-esque. No signing Drew Brees or anyone else that obviously going to get franchised. To keep this within the realm of the real, Peyton Manning already signs with a team that isn't Buffalo prior to free agency.

Have fun!

If the Buffalo Bills transition to Dave Wannstedt's version of the 4-3 defense, what does that mean for the current personnel? It's always easier to transition from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3 defense than vice versa. Many of the players needed in a 3-4 are specialists for that defense. The nose tackle is the foremost example. Vince Wilfork, a true space-eating nose tackle in a 3-4 defense, can easily transition to playing defensive tackle in a 4-3. The reverse isn't always true. Rocky Bernard can't play nose tackle.

In the same way, 3-4 defensive ends transition to defensive tackle or left end. The 3-4 outside linebackers transition to either 4-3 end position. The weak-side inside linebacker in a 3-4 can transition to the middle or strong-side linebacker position in a 4-3, or maybe even the weak-side outside linebacker position if the linebacker is fluid enough. The strong-side inside linebacker in a 3-4 makes the same transition as the weak-side inside linebacker. The only position not filled by 3-4 personnel is the one specialized position in the 4-3: the smaller outside linebacker position.

How would Buffalo's current defensive personnel fare in the transition? Better than you think. With the exception of some later-round picks and low-end free agents, everyone's got a home in a 4-3. After the jump, we'll look at how Buffalo's depth chart might change with a change to Wannstedt's 4-3.

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In Part I, we talked about how the Buffalo Bills' version of the 4-3 and 3-4 are essentially the same defense. Buffalo employs a version of the 46 defense that closely matches the 3-4/elephant defense they also use. In Part II, we'll look at the position responsibilities, how the team's current personnel fit, and which free agents and draft prospects are good fits for the Bills' system.

Terminology

Here we see a standard 3-4 alignment. Buffalo plays two defensive ends and a nose tackle on the defensive line. The two outside linebackers are called "Jack" and "Sam," with the Sam aligned on the strongside of the defense. The inside linebackers are called "Mike" and "Will," with the Mike aligned on the strong side of the defense. After the jump, we'll break down each position individually.

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The defensive alignment that the Buffalo Bills choose for 2012 continues as a point of debate amongst fans, sparked by the firing of George Edwards as defensive coordinator and subsequent promotion of Dave Wannstedt to the same position. Buffalo's hybrid defensive alignment over the past two seasons, where they ran both three- and four-man fronts, is the kindling for the debate. Wannstedt's experience running the 4-3, past statements by GM Buddy Nix that Buffalo will draft for a 3-4 alignment, and Nix's recent comments about Buffalo's use of both fronts add more fuel to the fire. The arrival of the off-season - where each prospect is debated by the merits of scheme fit - really gets the blaze going.

Here's the thing about the debate, though: it doesn't matter. That's a pretty bold statement. The implications of Buffalo's hybrid defense, along with observations of their use of three- and four-man fronts, indicate that stating a desired alignment doesn't really affect what the Bills are going to do. (Or, for that matter, have been doing.) After watching the Bills this season, they played variations of the Bullough-Fairbanks 3-4, over and under fronts, with the Jack and Sam linebackers acting as an elephant at times. When the Bills went 4-3, they played a 46 variation. When the two fronts are overlaid, we'll see that there's not much difference.

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Most talk about Buffalo acquiring Mario Williams has been dismissed on this board. I decided to check it out.

Houston's Defense. They certainly didn't miss Williams like everyone thought. Houston finished the season with the 4th best defense in the NFL. The Texans were 3rd best against the pass and 4th best against the run in the league. And they finished 6th in the league in sacks, despite their sack-master only playing five games - though it should be noted that five of Houston's 44 sacks came from Williams in those five game.

Williams' replacement, Connor Barwin, recorded a team high 11.5 sacks. The other outside linebacker Brooks Reed, sacked the quarterback six times. And the Texans have more than just two good outside linebackers to rush the quarterback: end Antonio Smith recorded 6.5 sacks and rookie J.J. Watt recorded 5.5 sacks.

All of which doesn't amount to anything, really, except to say that Houston is good without Williams. An argument can be made that the return of Williams could make this the best defense in the league. There are more factors to consider.

The Texans are one of the teams in the league that will have salary cap issues this off-season. Charley Casserly recently reported that the salary cap may not increase a significant amount. Houston entered last off-season $7.6 million under the cap, according to John Clayton, and were less than $1 million under the 2011 cap at the start of the season.

Houston only has one important UFA in center Chris Myers. They also have Arian Foster, who is restricted, but the money that he'll receiver is more important. Williams is going to want money that places him among the highest paid at his position, and he's making ~ $15 million now. Houston may be in for a Terrell Suggs -esque position fight with Williams, who stands to get more money as a defensive end than an outside linebacker, as the Texans list him. Houston might consider this move to create cap space to keep the team together in the future.

For those who think Williams won't move, consider the similarities between Williams and Jared Allen. Both entered contract years at 26 years old. Both were proven pass rushers entering their contract year. Both played for teams transitioning from 4-3 to 3-4 defenses. Kansas City franchised Allen in February of 2008, then sent him to Minnesota just prior to the draft. Minnesota sent a first round pick, two third round picks, and a 6th round pick to KC for Allen and a 6th round pick. While Kansas City has drafted Branden Albert and Jamaal Charles with those picks, I think Minnesota is happy with their deal.

Allen and Williams aren't that different. In Allen's first four seasons, all with the Chiefs, he recorded 9, 11, 7.5, and 15.5 sacks, respectively, for a total of 43 sacks. In Williams' first four seasons, all with the Texans, he recorded 4.5, 14, 12, and 9 sacks respectively, for a total of 39.5 sacks. Williams also has two more seasons, 2010 where he had 8.5 sacks, and this season, with 5 sacks in 5 games.

Could Buffalo, well under the cap, make a trade for Williams? It would free up cap space for the Texans, and add picks to continue to build what looks like the future dominant team in the AFC. The Texans have also proven that they can be great on defense without Williams. Buffalo might have to commit to a 4-3, but Williams would warrant that. And Buffalo might get what Minnesota had with Allen and the Williams Wall, in Williams-Williams-Dareus. It could be Buffalo's Williams Wall.

What to do? Buffalo could make this trade, if at all, at two points. It's all moot if Houston doesn't franchise him, but I think most people are in agreement that Houston will. So, would Nix make the trade prior to the draft, and forfeit the 10th pick? Or, does he play coy, and pull a Drew Bledsoe-trade move, waiting until after the draft and trading Buffalo's 2013 first rounder?

Poll

Would Buffalo trade for Mario Williams?

18%

Yes. Buddy Nix doesn't leave this to chance, and trades the 10th pick in 2012 prior to the draft. Besides, there aren't going to be any impact pass rushers available at 10 anyway.

73 votes

23%

Yes. Nix plays cat-and-mouse with Houston, let's them franchise Williams, and then uses Buffalo's pick at 10 in 2012. In the break between the 1st and 2nd rounds, Nix pulls the trigger with the 2013 first round pick.

93 votes

24%

No. Houston is going to lock up Williams and won't consider trading him.

98 votes

34%

No. Buffalo should just draft it's own pass rushers.

137 votes

401 votes | Poll has closed

This post is what I would do, today. I'm bored, I'm waiting for the first draft of my paper to come back with revisions, and there aren't a ton of draft prospects in the Sugar Bowl, so I'll throw this post out there and see what happens.

I go with a three-part plan: Stabilize, Fill, Build.

Part One- Stabilize. This phase is designed to minimize needs by resigning players. My list includes Scott Chandler, Bryan Scott, Demetrius Bell, Kraig Urbik, Rian Lindell, and Chad Rinehart. Chandler is the Bills best option at TE. Scott is a glue guy for the defense that fills a lot of roles. Bell and Hairston battle for the starting LT position, with the loser becoming the swing tackle. Rinehart is a solid depth lineman. Urbik is a starter, and Lindell's value is apparent to Bills fans now. I’d also pay Fitzpatrick’s bonus and keep him.

I'd spend a long time talking with Gailey about Stevie Johnson and ensure that Gailey was comfortable with Johnson returning, and then talk to Johnson about the situation. If Gailey and I both felt comfortable with the situation moving forward, I'd resign him.

Part Two- Fill. This is mainly free agency. First need is a cornerback, with Tracey Porter and Aaron Ross as the targets. I don't think Porter would leave New Orleans for Buffalo, so I'd focus on Ross. I'm a huge fan of the two tight end set, and I'd go after John Carlson. Carlson is a better in-line blocker than Chandler, and would let Chandler flex and move more. I'd also look at Robert Meachum to get speed on the outside. I might consider Anthony Spencer, but the lack of edge rushers might make it a necessity to overpay for him, and I'm not into that.

Part Three- Build. Two draft options I like:

Draft One: No trade up.

1.) Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M
2.) Best edge rusher available. Possibly Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse. Maybe Devin Taylor, DE/OLB South Carolina
3.) Tommy Streeter, WR, Miami, Fla.
4.) DeQuan Menzie, CB Alabama
4.) Cam Johnson, DE/OLB Virginia
5.) Marcel Jones, OT Nebraska
5.) Armond Armstead, DE/DT, USC
6.) Mason Cloy, C Clemson
7.) Cody Johnson, RB/FB, Texas

Draft Two: trade up 2nd and 3rd to get back into first round.

1.) Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M
1.) Best edge rusher available. Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB Illinois; I'd take a long look to see if Alabama ILB Dont'a Hightower would be a better pro outside. He reminds me a bit of Ahmad Brooks, who played ILB at Virginia but moved outside in the pros. Hightower, in limited rush attempts, beat Florida RT Xavier Nixon cleanly in their game this year.
4.) DeQuan Menzie, CB Alabama
4.) Cam Johnson, DE/OLB Virginia
5.) Marcel Jones, OT Nebraska
5.) Armond Armstead, DE/DT, USC
6.) Mason Cloy, C Clemson
7.) Cody Johnson, RB/FB, Texas

And I'd bring in Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator.

That's a joke. Flame away.

The Good: The Game's First 21 Points. Buffalo started the game shot out of a rocket. The Bills clearly knew exactly what they wanted to do with the Pats' defense. Chan Gailey dictated the game by going up-tempo early on, and maintained control of the football by getting larger chunks of yardage and staying out of third down situations. Gailey also called a fake punt which led to a Buffalo touchdown. Even after Stevie Johnson's benching, Buffalo drove 76 yards for their third touchdown, courtesy of C.J. Spiller. The extra point after Spiller's touchdown was the last moment of "good" in the game.

The Bad: The Game's Last 49 Points. The Patriots didn't panic. They began a comeback that rattled the young Bills into disarray. The Patriots believed because they have a franchise quarterback who is calm under pressure, and a coaching staff that makes great adjustments. Buffalo saw the train coming and cracked. The Bills also delivered some self-inflicted wounds. The second quarter 4th-and-12 play on the Patriots 36 was not needed. The game was still 21-14 Buffalo, and taking a five-yard penalty and punting might have been a better call. Nick Barnett intercepted Tom Brady a few plays later. On the ensuing drive, Buffalo wasted time by not calling their second timeout. Brandon Coutu's missed 45-yard field goal deflated the Bills going into half-time. The first Ryan Fitzpatrick interception; throwing slants to Tashard Choice; the pass that deflected off Spiller's hands for an interception; the second half was a large pile of Bills errors that the Patriots made them pay for.

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I was watching CFB and wasn't on the computer since about noon. Instead of getting lost in the 400+ opinions, I'll just make my own thread. : )

I like the Wannstadt move but I'm not crazy-happy about it. Buffalo, and more importantly, Gailey and Nix, can't take on another young mind looking to cut his teeth as a defensive coordinator. They need a steady guy who can put together a 10-20 ranked defense without a ton of player improvement. I think Wannstadt can do that.

I wouldn't judge Wannstadt's defensive performance in college as any indication of pro performance. He can only coach his guys 20 hours a week. Install the same schemes at Pitt and Florida, with the same degree of coaching, and you get vastly different results. College success is about recruiting.

Wannstadt didn't really coach the defense in his last head coaching stint in Miami. Jim Bates did, and ran his version of the 4-3 with DT's that played like twin NT's. That's not Wannstadt's defense, but he let Bates run it because Bates was so good. Wannstadt certainly had a voice in things though, and Miami had a great defense early last decade. If the front office got the team a QB better than Jay Fiedler, Miami might have made a strong push at the Super Bowl. Wannstadt's teams routinely gave the Patriots fits by playing them so tough.

Lots of folks on the big thread were getting caught up on schematics. NFL defense is about players first, schematics second. Better players and current player improvement will precede defensive improvement as a whole.

Does anyone really think that Wannstadt hasn't really learned a bunch about defense in 20 years, that he couldn't run any style of defense? Ron Rivera coached the Bears Tampa 2, went to San Diego and became the Charger's ILB coach, then DC. But he ran a 3-4, learned from Wade Phillips. For sure, Wannstadt knows the Landry 4-3, the Bates 4-3, and what he got from Edwards' scheme, which was a combination of the Marvin Lewis 46 and a straight 3-4. That's only if Wannstadt didn't know it prior, which is likely.

The player transition from a 3-4 to a 4-3 is easy:

DT: The NT, Kyle Williams, goes to DT. The LDE, Dareus, goes to DT. Kellen Heard and Spencer Johnson back them up.

LDE: A combination of Kelsay, Carrington, and Edwards. In 46 looks, Carrington and Edwards are exactly who you want at LDE. That's a nice rotation, with Carrington as the eventual starter.

RDE: A big gaping hole, but Merriman might pull some downs here.

SLB: A combination of Moats, Merriman and Batten. Most 4-3's have the SLB playing like a 3-4 OLB anyway, so this isn't a big deal. Might need help here, though, if Moats can't figure out coverages or Merriman can't play here due to injury.

MLB: Sheppard.

WLB: Barnett.

And Nix can keep drafting 3-4, because the players fit. And it allows more hybrid looks, since the defense can often change scheme with the same player, like the Ravens do. The need for edge rushers exists in both defenses. Buffalo needs two OLB's in a 3-4, and a RDE and SLB in the 4-3. Same-same.

If you're looking for UFA's to fill positions, I'd look at Israel Idonije at LDE. Maybe Robert Mathis at RDE, though he's played LDE a lot.

In the draft, this defense limits some options. Those of you that want Coples need to go re-watch him play. He looks like Tarzan in pads, but plays like Jane. Mercilus is probably a LDE. So is Vinny Curry. Nick Perry might fit at RDE or SLB. I'd give Dont'a Hightower a look at SLB.

Overall, I like the move but this move won't cause me to make any bold 2012 predictions.

Because it's fun! I did a quick mock last night watching the Giants beat the Cowboys. Lots to happen with players declaring, etc., but here goes the top ten:

Indianapolis: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford. And they keep Peyton Manning. Just because the fans, the media, and maybe even Oliver Luck think Manning should move on, the only two opinions that matter are those of Jim Irsay and Bill Polian. And I think they won't rush this situation. They might lose out on a couple day two draft picks, but I think Indianapolis keeps both and re-evaluates after the 2012 season.

Washington (trade from St. Louis); Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor. This trade makes the most sense for both teams. St. Louis isn't going to get considerably better plugging Grifffin in for Sam Bradford. Bradford is also the owner of the last large rookie NFL contract, making him somewhat harder to trade. Washington needs a franchise quarterback, and Mike Shanahan has traded up to get his quarterback in the past. Dan Synder will give up the picks to get RGIII, unless they decide to trade for Matt Flynn, which shouldn't be discounted.

(Trade note: Washington gives up 1st and 2nd round picks in 2011, and 1st round pick in 2013)

3.) Minnesota: Matt Kalil, OT, USC. No-brainer pick for Minnesota. The Vikings are rebuilding around Christian Ponder, who has been injured at season's end. A franchise left tackle solidifies the line and helps protect Ponder. Kalil is the safest pick in the draft, with a lot of upside and NFL bloodlines.

4.) Cleveland: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama. Mike Holmgren rode Shaun Alexander to the Super Bowl in 2005, and he knows the value of a work-horse in a West Coast scheme. Richardson is one of those rare talents that break the "don't pick a running back high" rule. In Cleveland, he'll run 25 times a game, take pressure off Colt McCoy, and make Cleveland a tough out, especially in December.

5.) Tampa Bay: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU. This is a case of BPA meeting pressing need. Tampa Bay's offense regressed, but it was due to down years at multiple positions. The defense has a solid front loaded with young talent. Ronde Barber isn't getting younger, and Aqub Talib has major legal troubles. Tampa Bay plays against three other franchise quarterbacks in the NFC South. Claiborne makes sense here.

6.) St. Louis (from Washington): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford. Bradford needs some receivers. He could also use some protection. Rodger Saffold might be better off at guard, and Jason Smith hasn't live up to his #2 overall draft status, and has been playing right tackle. Franchise left tackles are harder to find than receivers. There are two sure-fire left tackles in 2012. With two second round picks, the Rams pass on the receiver and take the left tackle.

7.) Jacksonville: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State. Blackmon looks like a young Terrell Owens to me. He can do everything well, but is elite over the middle and in the short to intermediate passing game. Blaine Gabbert played all of 2011 with reserve receivers starting. Blackmon becomes his go-to receiver in 2012.

8.) Carolina: Dre' Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama. The Panthers could go Quentin Coples with this pick. I think Coples looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane. The Panthers could use an offensive tackle, but after seeing Riley Reiff get beat up by Oklahoma pass rushers, I think his stock takes a dive. Carolina follows suit with Tampa Bay, and takes the cornerback.

9.) Miami: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma. This is a tough pick to predict. The Dolphins need a quarterback, and two are on the board in Jones and Ryan Tannehill. I think Tannehill is better but Jones is more ready to play in 2012. That said, Jones should stay in school. He could challenge Matt Barkley as the top pick in 2013 if he did. I don't think he will. It's a similar situation to Gabbert last year. Jones will test well in terms of throwing ability and attitude, and Miami has the offensive line in place to protect him. This pick will be a tough one to project before free agency. I don't think Miami has the firepower that Washington has to go get RGIII, and they are the ultimate losers in Barkley's decision. The new head coach could choose to go a receiver or front seven on defense. Unless Miami decides on a free agent, I think Jones is the pick.

10.) Buffalo: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M. Buffalo's in a good spot to take a quarterback. The Bills should compete for a playoff spot in 2012, and contend in 2013. Unless Buddy Nix's builds a defense like the 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens, Ryan Fitzpatrick will hold them back. Tannehill has elite tools and intangibles. He just needs experience. Buffalo sits him for a year behind Fitzpatrick, and uses the rest of the 2012 draft, and the 2013 off-season to build the team. The team and Tannehill should be ready at about the same time.

Note: I think Matt Flynn plays into this top ten. Miami and Washington are going to do internal mock drafts, and conclude that if Indianapolis takes Luck, the best deal for RGIII wins. Ownership of both teams is more into high-impact off-seasons, and selling Landry Jones to the fanbase might not work. I think one of the two teams works for Flynn like Houston did for Matt Schaub. I think Washington is most likely to make the move because Green Bay and Washington have west coast based offenses, and Shanahan seems most comfortable with veterans at quarterback.

Mock drafts are opinions, so post away if you agree or not.

Watching college bowls and trying to write a master's thesis is fairly incompatible. I'm watching Texas A&M right now, so I decided to write the Tannehill fanpost you guys asked for. I'm using Dan Kadar's standard format from Mocking the Draft. It's the same one that I used for Tim Tebow two years ago.

Ryan Tannehill, Quarterback, Texas A&M University, 6-4/220

Accuracy: Former high school duel-threat quarterback that has a natural ability to hit receivers inside the strike zone. Puts the nose of the where it needs to be most throws, and can complete passes when receivers are covered. Flawed footwork due to only playing quarterback in college for 20 games in four years, and Tannehill's accuracy could improve with additional mechanical tuning. Has shown the ability to make all the required NFL throws at the college level. When Tannehill does everything right mechanically, the ball comes out well and on target. Can change his throwing arm angle to fit the able around defenders.

Arm Strength: Very strong arm. Can put the ball where he wants it to go. Arm strength is natural and not the result of throwing technique. Spirals are tight, and he can put a lot of velocity on the football. Can throw the out route from the opposite hash mark on a rope. Fits the ball into tight coverage windows. Good deep thrower, though he needs some work on ball placement. Has a tendency to throw the ball too hard at times. Can still improve since he is still built like a wide receiver, and could add some strength.

Athleticism/mobility: Above average mobility. Runs like a bigger possession receiver, which he used to be. Not overly elusive, and not a candidate to run the read option, but can scramble to buy time or pick up yards. Used to being hit from receiver days and takes hits well. Not an easy target to bring down, and will sometimes throw off the first tackler. Not going to win a ton of footraces, but is far from a statue and will keep plays alive.

Decision-making/Field Vision: This is an area Tannehill has made the great strides, and can continue to improve. Plays in Mike Sherman's horizontal timing offense and is asked to make a lot of quick timing throws. Runs Sherman's entire playbook. At times, Texas A&M offense has a very pro feel to it, and Tannehill is often asked to make pro style progression reads. Tannehill runs the offense well for only playing 20 games. Makes quick decisions and puts the ball where it needs to go, on-time. Most of his predicated reads are bubble screens, and is required to see the entire field most throws, which he does well. Reads defenses pre-snap and during his drop. Texas A&M doesn't call audibles from the sidelines, and all audibles are Tannehill's responsibility, which he has improved at. Keeps his eyes downfield when scrambling. Tannehill is a smart player who understands the game from the thrower and receiver position, has executed a pro style offense, and has shown the ability to learn quickly. Will only get better with time, and he's pretty good now.

Mechanics: Tannehill needs some work here, though his throwing motion is pretty clean. Throwing motion is sound, with no hitches and the ball comes out quick. Tannehill needs to work on consistency. His arm motion is the same speed on almost every throw, which is a real good sign, and he has the ability to change his throwing angle. Sometimes changes his throwing angle when it's not required. Needs to work on foot placement, as he gets inconsistent with his footwork.

Pocket Awareness/Poise: For a player that has had limited experience, Tannehill's pocket presence is remarkable. He's natural in the pocket. He feels the rush but doesn't get happy feet. Steps up in the face of pressure and makes throws on target. Only scrambles when he needs to, and won't bail the pocket prematurely. Very strong leadership skills, and seems calm under pressure. Doesn't rattle in the pocket, or when he's playing poorly. Came back to lead the would-be winning drive against Texas after a poor game.

Touch: Needs work. Will gun the ball into receivers when he doesn't need to, and his arm will overpower them at times. Throws a nice fade route and puts air under the ball at times, but could work on it's placement. Will sometimes overthrow deep routes, or not put enough arm under the throw.

Overall: When I watch Tannehill, I watch him from a projecting mindset. He's already running a pro style offense, and is familiar with playing under center in conventional sets. He's got a lot of ability that can't be taught. He's accurate, has a strong arm, pocket presence, leadership, and is calm under pressure. He's also very intelligent and has picked up Mike Sherman's complete pro style offense in 20 games, including reading defenses and calling his own audibles. This also shows a willingness to learn. Those are things that are hard to coach into a player.

He needs work on his mechanics, touch, and still needs to continue his progress on reading defenses. He's come so far in such a short time, though, and I believe these are improvements he will make in time. Tannehill is the type of quarterback that could use a year or two behind a starter, finishing his work mentioned above, then being ready to start.

Tannehill is a leader with all the traits of a starting NFL quarterback. I wouldn't hesistate to select him in the top ten of the 2012 Draft. We've seen plenty of quarterbacks in recent drafts climb into the first round: Philip Rivers, Tim Tebow, and from 2011, Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert. Tannehill is a particularly good fit for Buffalo because he has the traits of an outdoor, cold weather quarterback. Within a few years, I think Tannehill's experience will catch up with his natural abilities, and he'll develop into a franchise quarterback.

The Buffalo Bills reverted back to their September form on Christmas Eve. In thrashing the Denver Broncos by 26 points, Buffalo ended their seven-game losing streak, showed that their confidence wasn't destroyed, and gave Bills fans some hope for 2012.

The Good: C.J. Spiller. I toyed with the idea of putting "disciplined play" in this category. Ultimately, Buffalo committed too many penalties, converted too few first downs, and didn't play well enough in the red zone to earn any sort of honor for discipline, though the team as a whole was more disciplined than in past weeks. Despite three combined scores from the defense and special teams, it was Spiller that played the engine role for the Bills. Spiller touched the football 18 times for 138 yards and a scored a touchdown, with 111 yards coming on the ground on only 16 carries. Spiller rushed eight times in the first half for 49 yards, including a 38-yard run in the first quarter that set up Dave Rayner's first miss. Two runs in the third quarter for 35 yards, including a 25-yard run, set up a Rayner field goal. This kid is the real deal. Given a sliver of room, he's off to the races, giving Buffalo an explosive element that they haven't had since Fred Jackson during the season's first seven games. Spiller is proving with each week that the only thing holding him back is the number of times Chan Gailey is calling his number.

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Something's changing in the NFL. Over the past three seasons, the league has trended toward a pass-first game. The rules in place enable this change, and penalty enforcement over that time frame have placed emphasis on not hitting the quarterback or receiver.

Something else is going on. How are teams like San Francisco and Denver winning? Last February, right after the Super Bowl, I started to think about teams that "run first" in this current passing era. Here are my thoughts from February 10, 2011:

I'm super intrigued with a shift that I see from Bill Belichick. The Pats drafted two tight ends, traded Randy Moss, and ran more than in the past, and I wonder if he's onto something. With so many teams running spread formations and designing defenses to stop opposing spreads, I wonder what a good old fashioned smash mouth offense would do? The Jets and Steelers have had success when they've committed heavily to the run. Sometimes going counter-trend means being first, and that can mean success. Buffalo was early to the renewed 46 defense trend, and fielded great defenses under Jerry Gray. Buffalo stayed 3-4 when the entire league abandoned the defense, and were subsequently hard to play against - but then they were five years late to the Tampa 2 party, and it showed. Maybe going counter-trend has some merits.

After the jump, we'll examine the history or the league's offensive and defensive schemes and concepts, how Denver and San Francisco have gone back to the 1980s to find success, and how Buffalo is positioned moving forward.

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Late last night, watching the Colts, it occurred to me that Indy might not get the first overall pick. What if the Colts win a very winable game next week vs. Jacksonville, and the Rams lose out? St. Louis would have the first overall pick, and lots of money committed to their franchise QB, Sam Bradford.

Buddy Nix trades three first round picks to St. Louis, and Andrew Luck is on the Bills. The other two teams in competition, the Dolphins and Redskins, won't finish so much higher than Buffalo, if higher at all, in the draft to compel the Rams to trade with them. And Buffalo has be out of the playoffs for a decade, and are a better bet to draft higher in 2013 and 2014.

What do you think?

Poll

Are three first rounders worth Andrew Luck?

22%

Pass rush be damned, unretire #12 and trade for Luck!

43 votes

25%

I'd love for Buffalo to trade for Luck, so long as he wears another number.

49 votes

31%

Fitzpatrick is good enough to win with. Draft players around him.

59 votes

20%

This will never happen. The Colts will lose to Jacksonville.

39 votes

190 votes | Poll has closed

The Good: C.J. Spiller. If I were to place Spiller's performance on a scale with Eric Metcalf-esque toy at one end, and Thurman Thomas at the other, Spiller would be far closer to Thomas than Metcalf. Chan Gailey told everyone last year that Spiller's issue was patience, and once he ran with more patience, Spiller's talent would shine through. Gailey was right.

Spiller was the best player on the field not named Reggie Bush - and that's only because Bush ran the ball 13 more times than Spiller. In a tighter game where Buffalo isn't passing 50 times, Spiller gets a few more carries and has his first 100-yard game. Spiller looks like he has potential to be a Marshall Faulk-style of player that gets his yards on big bursts, kills the defense on draws and screens, destroys tackling angles with his speed, plays receiver, and can create offense for others with the attention he gets. This may seems like an overreaction, but don't be surprised if Buddy Nix rides out Fred Jackson's remaining contract, and commits to a Spiller-slash-power back combo in 2013. Spiller is proving each week that he's capable of being a huge part of this offense.

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Hello Broncos Country! The Broncos are heading east to Ralph Wilson Stadium to play the Bills on Saturday. My fellow Buffalo Rumblers and I are here to talk about the game. Specifically, we'd be happy to talk about the Bills or to answer any Bills related questions in order to prepare for Saturday's game. I'll try to answer/discuss as much as possible during the week, and some other Rumblers will likely be around to talk as well.

We ask two favors:

1.) Please "rec" this post so that it's in your "recommended" area, essentially keeping it as a sticky for this week.

2.) Let's keep it as clean as possible. These types of posts have the chance to become contentious if we let them.

Take care, Merry Christmas, and here's hoping to a great game on Saturday!

Let's try a new format. "Three Good and Three Bad" wasn't a bad game review format. After four blowouts in six games, finding positives was getting more and more difficult each week. It's far easier to find things to write about in the new format. I believe the old format had us talking about the same things each week, so I'm throwing a change-up in an attempt to get more out of the game. "The Good, the Bad, and the Let's Not Overreact" will come from each team's perspective, with different viewpoints.

San Diego Chargers
The Good. Ladies and gentlemen, this is what the vertical offense is supposed to look like. Norv Turner still runs his offense the way he did in Dallas, with a power run game, and receivers running vertical routes. When the Chargers are clicking, which they are now, almost no team in the league can stop them. With two 6'5" receivers and a 6'4" tight end that can all run well, defenses are severely challenged to cover downfield and play the run. Buffalo struggled to stop Philip Rivers and company from the first drive of the game. Though likely too late to win the AFC West, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Chargers win out and make the playoffs as the sixth seed.

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The Buffalo Bills missed a prime opportunity to stay in the playoff race. Of their remaining opponents, the Tennessee Titans seemed the easiest to beat. San Diego faces the Bills after they travel to the West Coast - never easy conditions to win under. Miami is hitting their stride, Denver looks unbeatable, and New England hosts Buffalo. The Bills needed to win all five games to have a realistic chance at making the playoffs. While still mathematically alive, Buffalo's chances are dim.

The Bad
Run Defense Consistency. Was Buffalo's run defense really that bad? Tennessee finished with 31 rushing attempts for 187 yards. I came away from the game surprised that the statistics were that bad. After digging into the stats, Buffalo's run defense was not as bad as it seemed. Tennessee called 30 planned runs, gaining 186 yards. I used three yards per carry as the metric, with three yards or below per run in the same category. With that metric, on 16 of their runs, Tennessee gained 183 yards. On the other 14 attempts, Tennessee gained a total of three yards. For half of Tennessee's runs, Buffalo's run defense was dominant. On the other half, Buffalo was a doormat. The talent and ability is present to stop the run. Buffalo needs to find consistency now.

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I posted this in the "Trade Tebow" thread, and thought it might be a good fan post on its own. Talk of trading Tebow seems outright ridiculous to me. I don't think Denver, and specifically Elway, could trade Tebow, even if he whole-heartedly wanted to. Here are my thoughts on the subject.

I watched the NFL Playbook show focusing on Tebow. I heard nothing from McCoy that suggested any sort of attitude on Tebow’s future, either way. Good organizations have coaches that coach, and GM’s that work personnel. So it didn’t surprise me.

There are three voices that matter in Tebow’s future: Bowlen, Elway, and Fox.

- Bowlen: These aren’t my thoughts; they are Colin Cowherd’s, who I sometimes agree with. Denver isn’t a national market team. Only in Elway’s time in the 80’s, and then the two Super Bowl years, has Denver been a national market team. Until now. ESPN and NFL network have a Denver/Tebow section in every show. ESPN radio talks about Tebow every day. Tebow has Denver as the subject of every football talk show in America. I’m Bills fan in D.C., and he’s talked about every day on the Redskins radio show. Bowlen’s looking at national exposure, prime times games, etc. for however long Tebow can score enough points to win. Denver is a national team now, and winning enough to be relevant. As an owner, Denver is making money and is going to make more. It's no wonder Bowlen is quoted as wanting to keep Tebow. He's going to take a ton of convincing from Elway to move away from Tebow. I don't see it, especially after trading Cutler and seeing him get to the NFC Championship Game with the Bears.

- Fox: Tebow isn’t really winning the games. The offense is punting over half the time, and isn't scoring a ton. Tebow-mania is derived from the 4th quarter. Fox's style of game makes that possible, and is really the root of Denver's success. Fox wants to play defense, win the turnover battle, win field position, and run. Denver is doing all of this better than any team in the NFL right now. Fox’s Carolina team from 2003 had Jake Delhomme attempting about 28 passes a game, but that team ran more on the season than they threw. And check the scores out from nine of their eleven wins that season: 24-23, 12-9, 19-13, 23-20, 27-24, 20-17, 20-17, 20-14, 37-24. Lots of close games. This should look pretty familiar for Denver fans. I think Fox is willing to ride Tebow as far as he’ll go. Delhomme was good that year, but he wasn’t a franchise QB. I’m pretty confident that Tebow’s upside is at least Delhomme. Fox wants to win using the old 1980's NFC formula, and Tebow can do that.

- Elway: For Tebow-maniacs (I’m one, I’ve got “The Promise” plaque in my house), Elway is the one voice that might move Tebow out of Denver. Of the QB’s that Tebow resembles (listed above, Douglass, Kapp, etc) none won Super Bowl’s. Kapp and Tarkenton got their Minnesota teams to the Super Bowl, but never won. How many of those teams got to the Super Bowl on the backs of the defense and strong running games? Sort of familiar to what we see from Denver. Additionally, the Tarkenton-Tebow comparison is off-base. They both ran, but Tarkenton was a completely different style of player from Tebow.

Elway may not be sold on Tebow’s ability to get Denver a win in the big game. But, what does he do if he wants to trade Tebow? Keeping Tebow and drafting a rookie isn’t realistic. Robert Griffin III or Ryan Tannehill, possibly available when Denver picks in the 2012 Draft, would have such an uphill battle replacing Tebow as it is, that keeping Tebow on the roster would make it almost impossible. Every mistake would be amplified by the fan base to the point that the rookie could be ruined.

If Elway wants someone new, he’s got to trade Tebow. Who’s going to trade anything big for Tebow? A lot of the trade talk from Denver fans is like hockey-talk: tremendous overvalue of talent on one’s own roster. Tebow for Jacksonville’s 4th overall pick? Or Tebow and Denver's pick for Jacksonville's 4th overall? There’s no way that trade works for Jacksonville. They’d laugh, hang up, and continue to start Gabbert. Any team would. No team is trading a first rounder for a still-developing quarterback. Those Rob Johnson-style trades don't happen anymore. There's not one team in the league that would trade a first rounder for Tebow, outside maybe New England at the end of the round. Steve Young was traded for a 2nd and a 4th.

But, there’s the problem. Tebow isn’t going to return a first rounder. Denver fans want a king’s ransom. Elway might be convinced Tebow isn’t the long-term answer at QB, but moving him is a public relations nightmare. If Elway traded Tebow for a 2nd and a 4th, the city of Denver would implode.

If Elway does trade Tebow, who’s the replacement? Free agent Jason Campbell is talented enough to run Fox’s offense. But, if you’re going to replace Tebow, Campbell isn’t going to fill any sort of expectations. Peyton Manning? Indianapolis isn't trading Manning unless they get a couple first rounders coming back, which stunts the growth of a developing team. And Manning might be damaged goods. Bill Polian might not trade him. Elway's options are down to Andrew Luck or Matt Barkley. RGIII’s got similar problems to work through as a pro as Tebow, so it’s sort of a lateral move. Tannehill needs Aaron Rodgers time on the bench.

Luck is the best quarterback to enter the draft since to above mentioned Manning. His upside is good, but his real attraction is the low bust factor. Luck, at worst, is in the shade below elite, game manager category. While that's almost perfect for Fox's offense, Elway would stunt the team's growth by trading what it would take to get Luck.

In any other year, Barkley's the top pick. He's also more than talented enough to run Fox's offense, and wouldn't cost as much to acquire as Luck. It's entirely feasible from a front office point of view to trade Tebow for a 2nd/4th, then use the ammunition to get Barkley.

Options: The Campbell, Tannehill, and RGIII options are discounted due to unacceptability.

Luck option: Trade talks start at two first rounders plus a second round pick. Tebow returns a 2/4. Bowlen might buy off on this. But, Elway guts the team of a bunch of high picks to get this done. Plus, if you were Polian, with your son ready to take over the franchise, would you trade Luck? Would you trade Luck if you were Jim Irsay? I say this option works for Denver, but doesn't for Indianapolis. I don't see any option where the Colts don't take Luck.

Manning Option: Trade talks start at two first rounders. Tebow returns a 2/4. Bowlen might buy off on this. But, Elway guts the team for a 35-year-old quarterback? Indianapolis laughs all the way to the draft. Even if Manning plays into Kurt Warner age, Denver has a five year window to win, without two first rounders to replace age in the secondary. This doesn't make much sense. At the end, I think Denver doesn't win a championship, and has a team that looks a lot like Arizona's: listless without a good QB.

Barkley Option: Two first rounders likely put Denver into position to take Barkley. Teams like Minnesota, Carolina, St. Louis, and Jacksonville should finish low enough to make that type of trade feasible. Elway would again gut the team. Would Bowlen sign off on this? Barkley could be the guy that Elway and Fox want, but he's got no national market appeal. He's a Matt Ryan type of QB: can get the team in the playoffs, but half the country isn't paying attention. I don't think Bowlen signs off on this unless Elway becomes a Henry Kissinger type of diplomat.

Conclusion.

Elway really has one option: Barkley. Is the upgrade from Tebow to Barkley worth two first round picks? What if Tebow develops and Barkley doesn't develop? Lots of "what if"s surrounding this option. Bowlen would have to be convinced, beyond a doubt, that Barkley is the guy, and that long-term, Tebow isn't.

Denver has too much going for it with Tebow. Fox can win with Tebow. He could win with Barkley, or any of the quarterbacks mentioned above. But Fox's offense isn't built around a passer. Does Denver mortgage part of their future for a passer it might not need anyway? Denver can win with Tebow throwing 20 times a game.

Tebow is making Denver a national market team with a national following. Bowlen knows he's got someone that makes his team just as nationally relevant as Dallas, New England, the Jets, the Packers, the Steelers, the Eagles, and the Giants. Those teams dominate prime time games and sports media. Tebow enables Denver to join that club. There's tons of money to be had, and every owner wants a good and nationally relevant team.

Elway, even if he doesn’t want Tebow, has to break the bank for an adequate replacement (Luck, Barkley), and will never get anything close in a trade return for Tebow as the fan base expects. Would any of you go to games if Elway traded two first rounders for Barkley, then traded Tebow for a 2 and a 4?

Elway's in a bad spot as an executive. His hands are nearly tied in regards to a player decision. His coach is winning with a philosophy that doesn't require a franchise pocket passer. The owner is getting everything he wants. The fan base couldn't be more behind the team. The only real option is the Barkley option, which only works for the coach, and not the owner or the fan base.

I would be shocked, given the lack of support for the only option that works, for Elway to trade Tebow. I just don’t see Tebow leaving Denver anytime soon.

PS: To answer chikndnnr's question from the thread that was closed: yes, I wanted Miller over Dareus. Dominant edge rushers are way harder to find in the draft than a great defensive tackle. For example, in the 2012 Draft, there are two edge rushers with anything close to resembling a quick first step: South Carolina's Devin Thomas and Virginia's Cam Johnson. And neither of those guys are in Miller's range in terms of talent. Dareus is great at clogging the middle and beating blocks, but Buffalo already had Kyle Williams, and space eating DT's can be found every year (Alameda Ta'amu, Josh Chapman, Dontari Poe this coming draft). Dareus is way better than any of those guys, but for what Buffalo needs, all those guys fit the bill. But, Dareus isn't that far of a drop-off from Miller. It's like having Derrick Thomas drafted ahead of you, but having Cortez Kennedy available with the next pick. About the best consolation prize a team could have.

Additionally, I have a theory regarding the path the NFL is taking. The league is cyclical, and I think the 1980's formula of run, and play great defense is coming back around. Most of the league's defenses are built to stop passing games, which is partially why Denver and SF are having so much success. In that case, having Kyle Williams and Dareus on the interior of a defense is going to be a very good thing in the coming years.