Trailing teams outshoot their opponents, while leading teams get outshot. The effect becomes more extreme the closer we get to the end of the game and as the lead gets larger. The most extreme situation is the empty-net end game, which significantly distorts overall results.

--Desjardins on Score Effects

Approximately 70% of the game is spent at even strength, and of that, approximately 75% of that time is spent tied, up by a goal or down by a goal. In raw minutes, even strength close minutes account for over 1000 more minutes than special teams combined.

In the end, half of the game is spent at even strength within a goal or tied with an opponent - it's the most significant part of hockey.

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We checked in on the team scoring chance totals and saw little improvement. But that wouldn't be the case with the wealth of individual talent, would it?

Thanks to the efforts of Dennis King at MC79hockey, who logged chances for a third season. He deserves some kind of medal for this. For reference, check the results from 2010-11 and those from 2009-10.

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In 2009-2010, Dustin Penner drove the bus and the broken defense was repeatedly torched, and the team finished last. In 2010-2011, Tom Gilbert and Taylor Hall were the only Oilers driving the bus on their own and the team finished last.

In 2011-2012, things were supposed to be different, and the Oilers finished 29th. But how did they look by the scoring chances count?

For those who'd like a definition: a scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.

Vic Ferrari's chances script makes this whole possible and Dennis King has undertaken the brutal task of counting each and every scoring chance over the last three seasons, a maddening task, considering the amount of bad hockey he's been forced to watch.

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Major Junior hockey franchises have been in deep in Edmonton for the past 40 years. Success has been rare and longevity non-existent as those Junior teams have come and gone like Oilers' tough guys, with some only lasting as few as 25 games. But since the re-establishment of the latest incarnation of the Oil Kings in 2007-08, the team has not just established themselves in the Edmonton market, they've established themselves as an up-and-coming prospect powerhouse for the NHL Draft.

In 2009, Tomas Vincour was selected by Dallas with pick #129, becoming the first Oil Kings' player to be drafted to the NHL. When Vincour stepped onto the ice in 2010-11, he became the first Oil Kings alumnus to play in the NHL, but given recent trends, it seems as if though Vincour simply opened the floodgates.

Mark Pysyk was selected 23rd overall by Buffalo in 2010, and given his development curve, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him in a Sabres sweater in 2012-13.

Though the Oil Kings didn't have another first-round pick during the 2011 draft, they did have four players drafted, Keegan Lowe (#73), Travis Ewanyk (#74), Michael St. Croix (#106), and goaltender Laurent Brossoit (#164)

This year's class has four players inside the top 170 including a first-rounder and probable top ten pick and a fifth ranked just outside the top 210. Those numbers tie the Oil Kings with the Windsor Spitfires for second in in Major Junior with the most ranked draft-eligible players behind the London Knights (not counting the USA NTDP U18 team).

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In my comparables post on Sam Gagner, I came up with the following group of players with similar production (normalized in order to compare different eras) to Gagner at some point in the early part of their careers:

Aaron Broten, Adam Creighton, Alan Haworth, Bengt-Ake Gustafsson, Bernie Nicholls, Bob Pulford, Bobby Carpenter, Brian Bellows, Brian Bradley, Butch Goring, Dale Hunter, Dan Quinn, Darren Turcotte, Dave Andreychuk, Dave Christian, Dave Keon, David Legwand, Daymond Langkow, Derek Plante, Don Lever, Don McKenney, Doug Gilmour, Garry Unger, Greg Malone, Guy Chouinard, Ivan Boldirev, Jim Fox, Jimmy Carson, John Chabot, John Tucker, Jozef Stumpel, Marc Savard, Martin Straka, Mel Bridgman, Mike Ricci, Murray Oliver, Nelson Emerson, Patrick Marleau, Paul Gardner, Pelle Eklund, Peter McNab, Peter Zezel, Pit Martin, Ralph Backstrom, Ray Ferraro, Robert Reichel, Ron Duguay, Ron Flockhart, Russ Courtnall, Scott Gomez, Stephen Weiss, Steve Kasper, Thomas Steen, Tim Young, Vincent Damphousse

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I've posted the May Consensus Update over at NHL Numbers and not much has changed at the top. Nail Yakupov is still the number one and by a wide margin:

The largest gap between any two players in the top 20 is between #1 Yakupov and #2 Forsberg - a ringing endorsement of Yakupov's incredible abilities. I reconstructed this list for 2010 and 2011 using the final rankings of the draft guides, watchers and gurus over the last two years to compare to this year's list and found that not only is the gap between #1 and #2 much larger this year than in the previous two, the gap between Yakupov and Forsberg is the largest gap between any two back-to-back players ranked in the top ten from 2010-2012.

With a margin like this, drafting anyone else is out of the question, and trading down to pick a defensemen should net an enormous haul in return (significantly more than Luke Schenn, for example)

The group around the Oilers' second pick at #32, Damon Severson, Michael Matheson, Ludvig Bystrom, Stefan Matteau, Jordan Schmaltz, Tanner Pearson, Jarrod Maidens, and Dalton Thrower is comprised of five defensemen, an overage forward and a couple of CHL forwards. If Severson is still available, he would be an excellent selection, but gut feeling says the Oilers go with the offensive skill set of Schmaltz or the tough-nosed play of Thrower.

The group around the Oilers' third pick, Valeri Vasiliyev, Dominic Poulin, Cody Corbett, Kalle Torniainen, Eric Locke, and Jon Gillies is anchored by a name familiar to most - Cody Corbett. Corbett, 6'1" 210 lb American-born defender, is a mainstay on the blueline for the Ed Chynoweth Cup-winning Edmonton Oil Kings. The Oilers went for an Edmonton player in last year's third round - Travis Ewanyk - and could very well do the same this year.

"He skates well, is physical, he moves the puck, and communicates pretty well on the ice. He doesn't make a whole lot of mistakes, and he's just going to get better and better."
--U.S. World Junior Coach Dean Blais on Jacob Trouba

Jacob Trouba made a name for himself in the midst of the U.S. flameout at the 2012 World Junior Championship. As the team lost consecutive games to Finland, The Czech Republic and Canada, Trouba was a rock in the defensive end and created chances with his skating and passing on a consistent basis. He's committed to the University of Michigan, but the Kitchener Rangers will come calling in an effort to make that decision a difficult one. Trouba has been a fixture in the Consensus Top 10, starting 10th in October, moving to 8th in December before falling back to 9th this month. He's the 4th-ranked defenseman, but a number of scouts think he's as talented as Ryan Murray. If you're a fan of the Minnesota Wild, Carolina Hurricanes, Winnipeg Jets, Tampa Bay Lightning or Washington Caps, Trouba could be headed your way, though nearly every mock draft has him headed to Winnipeg.

For a more in-depth background on the surefire first round selection, I spoke with Future Considerations' U.S. Scout Dan Shrader.

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"He is mature beyond his years, and has excellent hockey IQ, as well as an outstanding work ethic."
--Future Consideration's Dan Sallows on Matt Finn

Matt Finn has made a bigger jump than any of his 2012 NHL Draft classmates. The defenseman from Toronto found a home on Guelph's top pairing and became the go-to guy in every situation for the Storm. He flew up the Consensus 100, moving from 98th in October to 16th in the latest rankings. Finn is one of a bevy of talented defensemen expected to go in the first round in June and currently ranks 7th amongst all defensemen. If you're a fan of the Calgary Flames, Ottawa Senators, Washington Capitals, San Jose Sharks or Chicago Blackhawks, he's a player to keep an eye on.

For a more in-depth background on the surefire first round selection, I spoke with The Scouting Report's Managing Editor Scott Campbell.

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"He's like a chess player; he's thinking one or two moves ahead. He sees stuff coming that a lot of players don't see."
--Central Scouting's B.J. MacDonald on Morgan Rielly

The top of the 2012 NHL Draft class is marked by two things: a dearth of Canadian forwards and a wealth of Canadian defensemen. Defensemen have comprised about half of The Consensus Top 30 since Octobert, with 10 of them hailing from Canada. Moose Jaw's Morgan Rielly has been near the top of that list the entire time. Rielly started the year in the 6th spot and currently stands 8th with a reputation as the best offensive defenseman available.

To find out more about Rielly, including how he remained a fixture in the top ten for the entire season, even after suffering his ligament tear, I spoke with The Scouting Report's Western Conference Correspondent Dan Lizee about Rielly.

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My favorite new fan take concerns Linus Omark and his status with the Edmonton Oilers. There have been are a number of hilarious takes (and attacks) concerning Omark in the wake of his request for a new start, but "Omark had a chance to prove himself early in the season and he blew it," takes the cake.

Before being sent to Oklahoma City on November 2nd, Omark appeared in just five games.

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Sports writers and radio/television personalities who cover the Oilers spent a fair amount of effort highlighting the increase in blocked shots in 2011-12. The increase supposedly reinforced a commitment to a new team concept, and words like "heart", "effort", "desire" and "sacrifice" framed both narratives. Ladislav Smid's shot-blocking abilities were named as the core reason to his new effectiveness, though I'm still not sure how that works.

At a tactical level, dawgbone looked at the downside of trying to block everything in two separate articles:

Shot Blocking Outside the Prime Scoring Area

Blocked Shots Aren't Always A Good Thing

Yesterday at NHLNumbers, I looked at the best shot blockers in the league, broken out by forward and defense. In the tables below, I've done the same for the Oilers. I've listed even strength shot attempts against, even strength blocks and the ESBS Ratio (% of even strength shot attempts blocked by an individual player), as I'm calling it until someone comes up with a better name. One caveat to these numbers - I'm using total even strength blocks, not away even strength blocks, which will leave a heavy tinge of scorer bias. But since I'm comparing teammates, that SHOULD wash out.

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Yesterday I asked readers to develop a comparables list for Sam Gagner:

Below is a list of centers (some later switched to wing) who plied their trade in the NHL from 1955 onwards:

Aaron Broten, Adam Creighton, Alan Haworth, Bengt-Ake Gustafsson, Bernie Nicholls, Bob Pulford, Bobby Carpenter, Brian Bellows, Brian Bradley, Butch Goring, Dale Hunter, Dan Quinn, Darren Turcotte, Dave Andreychuk, Dave Christian, Dave Keon, David Legwand, Daymond Langkow, Derek Plante, Don Lever, Don McKenney, Doug Gilmour, Garry Unger, Greg Malone, Guy Chouinard, Ivan Boldirev, Jim Fox, Jimmy Carson, John Chabot, John Tucker, Jozef Stumpel, Marc Savard, Martin Straka, Mel Bridgman, Mike Ricci, Murray Oliver, Nelson Emerson, Patrick Marleau, Paul Gardner, Pelle Eklund, Peter McNab, Peter Zezel, Pit Martin, Ralph Backstrom, Ray Ferraro, Robert Reichel, Ron Duguay, Ron Flockhart, Russ Courtnall, Scott Gomez, Stephen Weiss, Steve Kasper, Thomas Steen, Tim Young, Vincent Damphousse

In the comments, choose your best three Gagner comparables from the list.

I created the list by normalizing scoring in the league from 1955-2011 to level-set production by year. Jonathan Willis has done this previously and it's an outstanding idea. I set per game scoring to three goals per team per game, then calculated all numbers on a per 82 game basis. Performing these two adjustments to Sam Gagner's numbers over his first 366 games places his normalized per 82 game total to ~53 points.

The players in the list above all came within 20% of Gagner's adjusted number either prior to turning 23 (Gagner turns 23 in August) or during the following three years.

For now, I've abandoned the idea of adjusting for team production, but may re-visit this later.

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Zona

We get that you like Gagner but give it up. If the Oilers want to win the cup they must find another C who scores ppg and get rid of the bust. Can't win the cup without two ppg c and if he wasn't your favorite, you'd want to trade him too.

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Dear Mr. Zona,

Recently I was arguing upon a message board with fellow oilers fans a point I had come across and I am hoping that you could shed a little more light on it. I looked at every stanley cup winner over the past 30 years and noticed that 9 times out of 10 the stanley cup winner had two 60+ point producing centers.

My argument on the message board was that edmonton should deal for a proper point producing no.2 center and that would help them succeed faster. The counter argument was Sam Gagner is still developing and will indeed produce 60 points with better teammates in the near future.

I appreciate your time and I'm looking forward to your reply!

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"...Shawn Horcoff, the $7 million man..."

-nearly every mainstream sports writer in Edmonton in 2009-10.

Nevermind the terrible understanding of cash vs. cap (a concept many Edmonton fans fail to understand, as I've learned on Twitter whilst discussing a possible Nikolai Khabibulin buyout) from said sports writers, and nevermind that Horcoff's actual cap cost was $5.5 million, and nevermind that those writers are attempting to purposefully cast Horcoff in a specific light for media consumers in Edmonton, Shawn Horcoff was and is a vitally important member of the Edmonton Oilers. We know this by measuring qualcomp and certain other responsibilities, but we also know this through time on ice.

Most of the time, a player's total icetime is reflective of the amount of trust his coach has in him and therefore becomes a proxy for his importance to his team. Since different players take on different roles, one way to measure "highest paid" is by dividing a player's cap hit by his time on ice. Vitally important players should be paid more, cogs and plugs less - if that holds, the Cap Hit / Min should line up in a similar order and become a comparative number for team contributions per player.

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Corey Pronman is one of our favorite NHL Draft Gurus. His insight is particularly helpful because he uses a scale, rather than traditional cliches, to rank and discuss prospects. His rankings have been included in our Consensus Top 100 list since September.

On Monday, Pronman released his May Top 100 list for the 2012 NHL Draft at Hockey Prospectus.

According to Pronman, his rankings are a compilation of information gleaned from his own scouting and conversations with the people on the draft floor. He explains here:

While the reports are based somewhat on my personal viewings of most of the prospects profiled of whom I have seen most play at least once, predominantly though video scouting, a significant portion of my notes come from talking to scouts and NHL execs and accumulating a lot of information from different sources throughout the year.

...
I am a fan of something I've borrowed from the baseball scouting world and have adapted to hockey scouting called the 20-80 scale. In short, it is a distinct scouting language, derived originally from using standard deviations to assess talent distributions. To avoid confusing readers, I do not use number grades at all due to the lack of popularity of the scale in hockey circles, however the language I use throughout my reports have a rhyme and reason to which you should be informed about.

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When we last checked in on Linus Omark via his Twitter feed, he asked the Edmonton Oilers for a trade:

@realoilfan I live to show that the "two" are wrong. But I really hope edm let me have a chance in another nhl team

— Linus Omark(@Limpanomark) April 11, 2012

In response, an Oilers fan named Mike Burns questioned Omark's actions, and Omark responded in turn:

@mikeburns18 I like the oilers but they dont have room for me .I dont think there is something strange that I want to try something else!?

— Linus Omark(@Limpanomark) April 14, 2012

For Omark, his words aren't extraordinary. He's being honest. Fans, however, are offended. Omark is not the typical North American athlete - he doesn't speak couched statements, he doesn't use cliches at every turn and he certainly doesn't speak with a head bowed towards management. He's honest and blunt and that's not something North American fans are used to.

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Dillon Simpson came in at #17 in our Top 25 Under 25 and in that update, Scott noted:

Simpson still hasn't turned 19, and yet he's having a great season in the NCAA at the University of North Dakota, which is one of the nation's best programs in one of the nation's best Conferences. He has 13 points in 26 games and leads the team in +/- at +10. That kind of success in the NCAA at such a young age is very encouraging.

Simpson, a Sophmore, was again the Sioux's youngest defender. He will play the majority of his Junior season as a 19-year old, yet his results are in line with a much older player:

Simpson was second on the team in +/-, second in shots (though he was on the first power play) and fourth in blocked shots.

Underlying all of this is an assessment of Simpson's playing time, given to us by Jayson Hajdu, SID at North Dakota:

He had been on the top pairing with Ben Blood for a stretch. When Derek Forbort returned to the lineup last week they shuffled the pairings and Dillon went to the second pairing with Nick Mattson. Dillon and Mattson also currently anchor the first PP unit.

Simpson beat top-pairing and second-pairing minutes in a very tough league, on a defense that featured four other drafted players and did so at a very young age. In a 2011 re-draft, Simpson might go 50 spots higher - he's outperforming everyone's expectations.

CBC takes the big media markets and pushes TSN westward ho! The full round two television schedule by network is up after the jump. (h/t Puck The Media)

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The Oklahoma City Barons beat the Houston Aeros last night, and in doing so closed out the first series win in franchise history. While only 2,859 people witnessed the game three loss (attributed to a Sunday evening start time), logic dictates that the fans would love a chance to see the first-place team close out a series against a rival on a Monday night. It should have been better, or even well-attended. But it wasn't.

Only 1,922 fans turned out to see tomorrow's stars put a shellacking on the Aeros.

The two-night average of 2,390 was 163 less per game than last year's three-game average in the series loss to Hamilton. We know it's bad, but just how bad is the attendance problem in Oklahoma City?

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If you followed the Copper & Blue Twitter feed, you've seen astonishment in reaction to various Pittsburgh sports writers' narratives during the Flyers series. Those sports writers (and the CBC panel) have laid blame on everyone and everything except Marc-Andre Fleury. Even in the face of Fleury's all-time awful playoff performance (worst save percentage in 12 years), sports writers blamed the defense, Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Dan Bylsma and Dan Bylsma's system. Pittsburgh fans followed suit.

Why? Well, Fleury's Pittsburgh Penguins won a Stanley Cup in 2009 and because of that, Fleury has a reputation as "...perhaps the NHL's most underrated player and the best big game goalie in hockey." In 2009, Fleury's save percentage was .9082, good for 11th amongst post-season goaltenders. His even-strength save percentage was .9144, good for 11th that playoff year. In fact, Fleury's career save percentage in the playoffs is .9043, which ranks 40th out of 55 playoff goaltenders since the lockout.

The Penguins have made the playoffs each year since 2006-07, and in that time, Fleury's rankings in total playoff save percentage are as follows: 18-2-11-15-14-16. His rankings in even-strength save percentage are similar: 14-4-11-16-14-15. As a reminder, 16 teams make the NHL playoffs.

Fleury's playoff career is marked by well-below-average results - only once, in 2007-08, has Fleury been better than .910 in total save percentage and .920 even-strength save percentage. The "best big game goalie in hockey" is just bad in the playoffs. What other "big games" are there?

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If you're a regular reader of this site, you're already well-aware of Nikolai Khabibulin's 35+ contract, singed in the summer of 2009 for $15 million over four years. You're also aware of the prevailing view that Steve Tambellini bid against himself and ended up paying somewhere between 50% and 200% more than the rest of the market was willing to pay.

But Khabibulin's true cost to the team over the last two seasons is more than just the $7.5 million he's collected in his paychecks.

Yesterday I showed how poorly Khabibulin performed compared to league averages. But what is the impact on results when Tom Renney throws Khabibulin onto the ice for yet another shellacking? What would Khabibulin's numbers look like if the Oilers had a competent backup capable of a league average even strength save percentage? Guys like Jason LaBarbera, Thomas Greiss, and Jhonas Enroth come to mind as capable backups.

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You know, when I talked to Nik in his post season exit meetings, he told me he wants to play another four or five years. I said ‘You feel that good Nik?’ and he said ‘Well why not?’ So, by him saying that to me, he’s still feeling the compete and the challenge. I think guys like Nik Khabibulin need to be, or like to be, challenged or motivated, they’re not afraid of it. So Devan’s poised right now to take games from him and I love the fact his plan is to get the net back.

--Steve Tambellini, on Nikolai Khabibulin in his end of the year press conference.

"We’ll have Nik back." Tambellini was firm when he answered questions about his veteran goaltender and keystone free agent signing. In that same article, Jonathan Willis points out:

Dubnyk’s career save percentage in the NHL is 0.910, which is right around the league average and compares favourably to guys like Marc-Andre Fleury (0.912) and Martin Brodeur (0.910) in the same span.

Dubnyk's career save percentage is .910, but over the last two seasons, Dubnyk's been above average (save for trouble on the penalty kill, which is difficult to analyze due to small sample sizes) but has been especially good at even strength.

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"Send an offer sheet to Cory Schneider!"

"Trade for Michal Neuvirth!"

"Tyler Bunz is the third-best goalie in the WHL, just wait on him."

"Nikolai Khabibulin will rebound."

"America is a goalie factory!"

"Finland is a goalie factory!"

"Canadian goalies stink!"

The playoffs turn the average fan into a goalie-crazed wreck, reminiscent of a certain group of fans from the 1960s. And why not? After all, an average goalie on a hot streak can run his 88 point team deep into the playoffs and an average goalie with myopia can make an average opponent look like the 1986 Edmonton Oilers.

Take heart, Oilers fans and those of you pining for someone else's goaltender: goaltenders in general are getting better.

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Tobias Rieder has taken the OHL Playoffs by storm.

He leads the league in goals and ranks third in assists behind teammates Michael Catenacci and Ryan Murphy. His thirteen goals have him in front of second place Tyler Toffoli by three. Rieder has six even strength goals, five power play goals and three short-handed goals, including a pair just 39 seconds apart Sunday night. Rieder's run may be coming to an end, however, as his Kitchener Rangers are down 0-2 to London despite Rieder's efforts.

Rieder ranked 20th in our Winter Top 25 Under 25

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All upper bowl tickets for the first round are $10. Pre-order or at the door, it doesn't matter. The price is fantastic, but perhaps the promotional side of this has gone unnoticed. At such a cheap price, can the Barons entice a crowd for a Sunday Game #3?

--Neal Livingston, pondering the Barons' attendance in game three against the Houston Aeros.

Tonight, the game touches down in Oklahoma City. A Sunday night game is a hard sell in this city, but with $10 upper level tickets, and smattering of pre-game activities going on around the downtown area, a crowd of 3,500 might not be too much of a stretch (until I read my own words and think, "yeah, more like 2,500).

--Neal's realistic prediction about the same attendance.

Official attendance for game three: 2,859

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My last look at rookies focused on forwards only, so consider this pat two of my search for the most-deserving Calder candidates.

The Calder Memorial Trophy is an annual award given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the National Hockey League. The winner is selected in a poll of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association at the end of the regular season and each individual voter ranks their top five candidates on a 10-7-5-3-1 points system. Three finalists are named and the trophy is awarded at the NHL Awards ceremony after the playoffs.

This is the companion bubble graph to the previous one, displaying all rookie defensemen with 40 or more games played.

The horizontal axis shows qualcomp, specifically Corsi relative quality of competition taken from the venerable and terrifying Gabriel Desjardins' behindthenet.ca. The vertical axis shows zonestart-adjusted Corsi again from the venerable and terrifying one. The bubbles are scaled to indicate points per game. All of the caveats about comparing these numbers between teams stand, but the chart is still a useful jumping-off point for analysis and discussion.

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The NHL announced the results of Brendan Shanahan's hearing with Raffi Torres:

Phoenix Coyotes forward Raffi Torres has been suspended for 25 games for launching himself to deliver a late hit to the head of Chicago Blackhawks forward Marian Hossa during Game 3 of the teams' Western Conference Quarterfinal playoff series in Chicago on Tuesday, April 17, the National Hockey League's Department of Player Safety announced today.

Should the 25 games not be served by the conclusion of the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the remaining games of the suspension will carry over into the following regular season. Torres will be prohibited from playing in any preseason games until he has served this 25-game suspension (playoff and regular-season games).

Should the suspension carry over to next season, because he is classified as a repeat offender under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, Torres will forfeit $21,341.46 in salary for every regular-season game in which he is ineligible to play.

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