SB Nation User Blog: Desroko

Puck Prospectus: Expect big things from Max Talbot

Desroko — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 21:46:41 -0000

Puck Prospectus: Expect big things from Max Talbot

Of playoff performers, only Malkin outperformed his projection by a greater margin than Maxime Talbot. This usually means that they improve their point totals the next season.

Interestingly, Datsyuk and Carter are forecasted to decline.

Pythagorean Wins: Looking Forward and Back in the AFC North

Desroko — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 01:10:13 -0000

Last year, I posted a story explaining Pythagorean expectation, and what it predicted for the AFC North. Basically, you take the number of points a team scores and allows, plug it into a formula, and calculate the "ideal" number of games they should have won that season. It can also be used to predict, with fair accuracy, how a team will do the next season.

Two of the four predictions were spot-on, as the Steelers were forecasted to improve, and the Browns to decline, as they respectively under and overperformed their Pyth. expectation. The Bengals were also forecasted to improve - as we know, that didn't work out.

I'm going to take a look at the numbers again, for a few select teams, and see what we're looking at this season.

(As always, take this with a grain of salt - it's not perfect, and it can't predict injuries and performances from new personnel.)

We'll start with the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, who had a point differential of +124 points, which equates to 11.84 Pyth. wins. Sound familiar? When a team closely matches their ideal wins, their following season projection is hard to gauge. With a more favorable schedule, I'm willing to bet on 11-13 wins in 2009.

(Yes, feel free to dig this story up and mock me in nine months.)

How about the team that we completed a trifecta of futility by losing to the Steelers not once, but twice, but thrice last season, a distinction previously held only by the esteemed Cleveland Browns - the Baltimore Ravens? They actually had a better projection, with a point differential of +141. That predicts 12 Pyth. wins, which they fell short of by one game. Sigh - an underperformance of one full game or more usually predicts a better team the next season. Let's hope for a Flacco sophomore slump, or for that aging defense to finally f***ing age. I'll match them with the Steelers at 11-13 wins, hopefully none against us.

And those aforementioned Cleveland Browns? The preseason AFC North favorites were badly outscored, at -118 points. This factors to 4.5 Pyth. wins, as compared to an actual total of four. Things aren't looking too hot on the Cuyahoga. But don't worry, they have a secret weapon that's sure to turn things around: The Mangenius! And, uh, Brady Quinn, who has a completion percentage roughly equivalent to the staph infection rate in the Browns locker room. And that other guy, the one who couldn't beat Charlie Frye for a starting job. Yeah, they're finally turning things around in Cleveland. 5-7 wins.

And we come to the only member of the division to never win a league title of any kind. The Cincinnati Bengals. Getting sleepy...Let's make this quick before I fall asleep on my keyboard. They were outscored by a whopping -160 points, or 10 per game. According to the formula, they had 3 Pyth. wins. They won four games, and tied in another. This sad sack team actually significantly over-performed last season. I'll spot them a better defense and a competent QB, and predict that they'll beat last year's totals easily, despite the formula. 6-8 wins, and high hopes for another 8-8 season for the most average franchise ever.

Coming soon, more AFC notables, and discover why Tony Romo and the Cowboys will go playoff winless for yet another season.

Dispatch from St. Vincent's: Steelers Training Camp Report

Desroko — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 23:37:52 -0000

Interesting day, and painful. Not on the field, but I stupidly forgot sunscreen, and now have a very nice burn on the back of my neck. Quick notes:

- Nate Washington looked awesome. Really awesome. He caught everything thrown his way and made a few spectacular grabs, including an acrobatic TD catch in the back of the end zone on a pass from Ben during the two-minute drill. His mohawk looks pretty good too.

- Limas Sweed impressed as well, catching one deep pass from Charlie Batch after beating two defensive backs (I believe they were Mason and Roy Lewis, but don't quote me, I wasn't taking notes) and another on a fade for a TD during Charlie's two-minute.

- Dallas Baker, Willie Reid, and Micah Rucker all seemed very aware that they are on the bubble, as they were playing hard. All three made some great catches, but Baker in particular dropped a pretty easy pass over the middle. Reid was robbed on a fly route when the CB covering him (I couldn't catch his number) interfered, but he also didn't help himself any by pulling up early on another deep Batch pass.

- Hines, veteran of many a training camp, seemed to play when he felt like it. He sat on a Gatorade cooler during some early drills, but later on was making some rolling catches on low balls. He bungled a beautiful pass from Ben on a post, and promptly dropped and banged out ten push-ups, to the crowd's delight. He's the only person on the field who could get cheers after missing a pass.

- Ben was okay. He underthrow Santonio once (who looked solid as well, working well in traffic) and another gave Deshea Townsend an easy interception on a pass that appeared to be intended for one of the FAs whose names I can't remember. Other than that he looked sharp and comfortable, and very accurate, though he wasn't throwing much deep.

- I have to single out Gerran Walker for making some pretty poor cuts. He's probably one of the first to go, given how on the rest of the receivers were.

- Santonio, Willie Reid, and Jeremy Bloom fielded punts (Sepulveda was not punting today, and Batch was holding for Skippy Reed, which I thought was odd). All three handled every punt cleanly, but on the few return drills they ran, Bloom and Holmes outperformed Reid.

- Dennis Dixon seemed okay, and moved pretty well for a guy with what I thought was a bad injury. He and Mike Potts were the least accurate, not surprisingly, and Potts was the only QB to have to throw a pass away during passing drills. I also caught Dixon using a sidearm delivery once or twice, which is a good way to get the ball swatted down. Potts' footwork looked clean from what I saw, but neither he nor Dixon had enough true dropbacks to get a good handle on that.

- Unfortunately, the pass-blocking drills were on a far field. I couldn't see much of what was going on, but unsurprisingly, the defense appeared to be getting the better of the offense. This was not backs-on-backers by the way, as Parker, Mendenhall, Russell and Davis were all participating in the two-minutes at the time.

- Mendenhall looked as good as you can in a limited-contact rushing drill, running low with good lateral quickness. Parker looked good as well - though he was getting the whistle blown on him a bit earlier than Menthol, on average, he had the longest gain of the afternoon, slipping between the LT and LG and darting to his left for a good fifteen or twenty yards before being run out of bounds by Ty Carter.

- As a side note, Parker was hitting the sled a lot harder than I ever remember him hitting a hole in a game. He and Mendenhall again paced the backs in this easily, especially on second effort, where Carey Davis in particular flagged a bit.

- Where was Mewelde Moore? I saw him hit the sled and catch a few passes, but only in a RBs-only drill. I came to camp looking for him specifically, and I could never find him.

- Skippy looked fine on field goals, but he only got to the 45 before the horn sounded. During warmups he took a few jogging steps and hit what appeared to be a very large, very unamused bear of an assistant coach. He hasn't changed much, in other words.

-During one of these field goal attempts, Batch took the snap and then rolled to his right, hitting Matt Spaeth for a completion.

- Troy appeared to be very interested in the rest of the DBs play, spending most of the day crouching and watching the defensive backfield calmly. Chris K, on the other hand, appeared to be very upset not to be on the field. Or maybe he always looks like that. I didn't see Big Snack, believe it or not. not to say that he wasn't on the field, but I never got a glimpse that I was certain was him (a lot of these big guys look similar from a distance - my mother somehow confused Greg Warren with Ben Roethlisberger momentarily).

If I think of anything else, I'll edit or post in the comments.

The future of football? The A-11 offense

Desroko — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 15:51:49 -0000

Per Rivals.com, and AOL Fanhouse, a California high school may be revolutionizing football offense with a formation in which every player on the field - that's right, every single one - is an eligible receiver.

Most of us here are probably aware that all levels of American football require seven players on the line of scrimmage, typically five offensive linemen and two wideouts, or a wideout and a tight end. In addition, five of those players are not pass-eligible. These are almost always offensive linemen.

Piedmont High School is doing things a bit differently. Their new "A-11" formation has a "center " flanked by two tight ends, with three wideouts on either side. Two quarterbacks line up in the shotgun. None of the players wear uniform numbers corresponding to offensive linemen, and the formation looks more like a kickoff or punt than a typical offensive play.

WR WR WR TE C TE WR WR WR

QB QB

Of course, they can't work their way around the rules entirely. Besides the player who takes the snap, there can be only five eligible receivers. But Piedmont HS's solution is deviously simple - we'll have five receivers, but you won't know which ones until the ball is snapped. Five stay in to block, and five are sent beyond the line of scrimmage. God help the poor defense which is supposed to figure out which is which.

Could this work at other levels? I'll leave the questions of utility aside, and note only that I think this is brilliant. However, the NCAA and NFL rules don't align completely with the California's. The NFL, in particular, seems to specify that of the seven men on the LOS, only the two on the ends of the line (the tight end and a wideout) are eligible.

But this formation may be able to thrive in college football - apparently Piedmont has already been besieged with requests from college football programs, including some D-1A, about their new strategy.

Notes on the 2007 Season from the Football Outsiders

Desroko — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 20:56:27 -0000

I bought my copy of Pro Football Prospectus 2008 yesterday, and I've had a chance to at least skim everything and pore over the Steelers section obsessively. Some quick observations:

(As usual I don't hold Football Outsiders' metrics in awe [sample size is a huge issue, as is opponent-adjustment], but they are useful, and their game-charting is invaluable.)

And as always, be nice and visit their site.

Overall

- The 2007 Steelers had the largest drop in DVOA (average value) of any team from 1995 to 2007. Of course, of the top 12 teams in that category, four others are also from 2007, which is suspicious. Indy, New England, Tennessee, and Dallas are the other lucky winners.

- Mean projection is 7.2 wins. Don't panic. Their projection system tends to cluster absurdly in the middle, and nearly everybody is projected, every year, between 6 and 10 wins, with most between 7 and 9. Dealing with double-digit wins or losses appears to be difficult.

- Cleveland, Cincy, and Baltimore come in at 6.8, 6.3, and 8.5. See what I mean?

- Toughest average opponent in the NFL. Sigh...At least the division winner is assured of a playoff spot, which may be awarded to an 8-8 team in the AFCN.

Offense

- We ran on first down 60% of the time. That is, if you couldn't guess, first in the league. On third or fourth and short, or short goal-to-go, we ran only 42% of the time, 31st. We also ran on second and long a mind-numbing 44% of the time, which was wel above average and almost guaranteed to result in third and long. While I've been harping that we don't have the personnel for the old power-running scheme, it seems like Arians didn't realize that at all some of the time, and was all too aware at others. I continue to remain unimpressed with him.

- Roethlisberger had to scramble on 15% of passing plays, highest in the league. NFL average was 7%. Not surprisingly, he was also the best quarterback in the league in this situation

- A thought: Limas Sweed is described as tall, fast, and athletic, but a poor route runner. Is it possible that the Steelers factored improvisational ability into their scouting for WRs, knowing what kind of line and quarterback they were dealing with?

- We used 4 or more WRs 16 percent of the time, and two or more TEs 40% of the time, both above league average. With three or four wide, we were awesome. With only two receivers, we kind of sucked. So Arians isn't completely useless, as he seemed to realize that.

- Roethlisberger was significantly worse on play-action and under center than on no-play-action or in the shotgun. The fact that play-fakes, which Ben excelled at only two years ago, are no longer effective might have something to do with our declining rushing effectiveness.

- Mike Tomlin was one of the most conservative coaches in the league on fourth down. Blitz, you know those new strategies that are going to change football you were talking about? This is it right here, as Bellichick and Easterbrook know. We've got to be more aggressive.

- Santonio was, cumulatively, our most productive receiver by far, despite having a lower catch rate (61% to 64%) and catches (52 to 72) than Hines.

- Nate caught a little over half of the balls thrown his way. Cumulatively, he was as valuable as Ward in receiving, which is counter-intuitive.

- Per play, Miller was the most valuable receiver by far among the starters. Matt Spaeth, however, nearly doubled him up in that category. The joys of being used only in the red zone. The two also had great hands, with 77% and 83% catch rates, respectively, though Spaeth's sample size is an aburdly low 6 plays.

- The offense was average on first and second down, and awesome on third. Our predictable first down playcalling has a lot to do with that first part, as does the improvised passing on third down. FO points out that very high or low effectiveness on third down tends to regress to the mean the following year. I know we were above average in 2005, but I'll have to check 2006's numbers. Of course, fewer third and long situations will help with that.

- Adjusted sack rate was 10.1%. Nothing new to any of us, I'm sure.

Defense

- LeBeau used a standard four-man pass rush only 41% of the time, last in the league. We blitzed five roughly the same amount of time.

- Over the past two years, the D has been merciless to pass-catching RBs, best in the NFL. We were also the best at limiting yards after catch.

- Bafflingly, Travis Kirschke had the highest stop rate of any defensive lineman or linebacker. He made 26 plays, and 23 of those were "Stops," in which the offense did not score, convert, or gain significant yardage. Clark Haggans was lowest among front 7 players, at 57%,and 4 yards allowed per, the highest average yet again. Woodley did not play often enough to be included in the analysis, unfortunately. The Keisel hybrid DE/LB experiment is deemed a failure, though he didn't suck. That's some comfort.

- They credit James Farrior with 32.5 pressures (sacks, knockdowns, and hurries), the most on the team. To give some context, James Harrison, "a pass-rushing force," had 26.5, and premier pas-rushing DE Jared Allen had a little over 40. Harrison had more sacks, while Farrior had more hurries, so it balances out roughly, but Farrior's outstanding play often goes unmentioned. He also made more plays than anyone other than Ike Taylor.

- Speaking of Ike, it's mixed. He was targeted more than any other DB on the team, which is a statement in and of itself. They don't provide a metric for this, but only 3 INTs in 111 targets has to be among the league lows. He allowed 7 yards per target, which was 36th of 81 CBs. He was good in run support, though, 12th among CBs in run stop rate, and allowing only 4 yards per.

- Deshea Townsend, according to this, was awesome. He was among the very best CBs in yards allowed per target, at 5.1, and even better than Ike in run support. (They mention that he may be moved to safety in case of injuries there, which is the first I've heard of it.) The metrics are also high on Tyrone Carter, strangely enough. Even with no INTS, Troy had a very good season, ranking in the top 10 among safeties in both success rate and yards allowed. B-Mac doesn't have a full analysis,but he was above average in coverage, and poor at run support.

- The ugly - Anthony Smith allowed 11 yards per target. Eleven. Normalized, throwing in his direction was an instant first down. Only ten qualifying safeties were worse than that. He was similarly awful in run support, which is bad sign for a free-wheeling hitter. Ryan Clark did not play enough to be fully analyzed, but he allowed only 3 yards per target. Get well soon, Ryan.

ESPN Highlights Steelers' Day 2 Picks

Desroko — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 21:01:38 -0000

ESPN Highlights Steelers' Day 2 Picks

A Football Outsiders writer has listed ten Day 2 draft picks that are poised to succeed in the NFL, including two Steelers.

Pythagorean Wins: What Do They Predict for the AFC North?

Desroko — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 04:45:56 -0000

Every year, fans (and haters) of certain teams claim that the sqad in question under-(or over-) performed that last season, and that things will get better (or worse) next season.

Turns out, they're often right. These games aren't played in a vacuum, and given the effects of pschology, weather or field conditions, injuries, and cruel Lady Luck, sometimes a team under or overperforms in enough games to significantly affect their record.

Bill James, baseball statistician, invented a formula to try and take some of the randomness out of the game, and find a team's ideal record acording to how many runs/points they scored and allowed that season. With a bit of tweaking this formula can be applied to other sports, including football.

Here's how the 2007 season looks for the AFC North Division*:

Team Pts For Pts Agst Pyth. Wins Actual Wins
Baltimore 275 384 4.992 5
Cincinnati 380 385 7.872 7
Cleveland 402 382 8.480 10
Pittsburgh 393 269 11.376 10

From this we can see that the Ravens, in the immortal words of Denis Green, were exactly who we thought they were. We also find that the Steelers and Bengals both underperformed (the Benglas may be the most average team ever, given that they should have finished 8-8 yet again), and the Browns, confirming my suspicions, were playing over their heads.

Now this is all very interesting, but you can be forgiven for wondering "What use is this?"

As you may guess, teams that significantly deviate from their record tend to see a regression to the mean the next season. That's good news for us and the Bengals, bad news for the Browns, and well, bad news for the Ravens as well, even though they matched their Pythagorean projection.

This isn't perfect - I have a feeling that our brutal schedule is going to prevent us from the 11 or 12 wins that the formula is projecting right now - but barring catastrophe we should be the favorites to win the division again next year.

*This data was compiled by www.imarc.net/examples/pythagorean_wins/index.php?sport=nfl

Polamalu Signs New Deal

Desroko — Mon, 23 Jul 2007 20:12:02 -0000

Bumped from the diaries. --PB--

It's a five-year contract worth potentially $33 mil. Troy is now the highest-paid safety in the NFL, and the highest-paid Steeler. He's worth it.

Alan Faneca, as we all know, will not be back when his contract expires at the end of this season. Clark Haggans, Max Starks, Danny Kreider, and Kendall Simmons are also in the last year of their current deals.

I really like Kreider and what he does for the team, but he's getting older and we'll probably have less room for a fullback over the next few seasons anyway (assuming that singleback and two/three TE formations really are coming). Simmons may yet regain his form, but I doubt it. I'm even less optimistic about Starks - I'll be shocked if someone else, likely Colon, isn't starting at his position when we play Cleveland. Haggans will be valuable for the depth he brings.

Camp started a few minutes ago. No arrests and no accidents this year - woo hoo!

Cuban Planning a New Pro Football League

Desroko — Thu, 31 May 2007 22:15:57 -0000

Pittsburgh native, software multimillionaire, Dallas Mavericks owner and all-around loudmouth Mark Cuban let it slip a few days ago that he's a prospective owner in the United Football League, which would compete with the NFL.

Now, I'm part of the minority of sports fans who like Cuban. Sure, he's arrogant and highly opinionated, to say the least, but he's a passionate and dedicated member of what may be the stodgiest group of men in America - professional sports owners. He wants to win. He's not just interested in making money by spending as little as possible while ignoring perennial losing seasons, like a certain MLB ownership group I won't mention.

And Cuban offers up a halfway sane rationale: Because of the salary cap, there's a large chunk of pro-level players who are always scuffling for jobs, floating from team to team or landing roster spots by playing special-teams. This new league proposes to sweep a lot of this mid-to-late round and undrafted talent into its own bin, resulting in a somewhat low-caliber but still professional level of play.

Still, I don't think this will pan out. Regarding second leagues in American history - many have tried, few have survived. The AFL, of course, survived and prospered, but that was a different era, when the NFL was much smaller, and when teams could be choosier about who they signed from the talent pool. The AFL took pains to separate itself from its older brother and added several reforms to the old-fashioned style of play predominant in the NFL at the time, like two-point conversions and open passing attacks. They were also fully racially-integrated, at a time when the NFL, though integrated on paper, still resisted letting "too many" black players on the field.

Needless to say, the NFL has expanded to the point where there are few open spots left on the map, and probably not enough to fill eight billets. Los Angeles is probably the number-one target, but outside of that, it's hard to see where they can plant seven more franchises. Portland, Oregon? Sacramento? Virginia?

Which leads me to another problem: Unlike, say, Arena Football, which plays its games in the spring (along with its ridiculously-productive offenses, the main reason it survives), this new league would play its games on Friday nights, when most high-school teams play. So, right off the bat, you can mark off western Pennsylvania and Texas. (They wouldn't be stupid enough to compete with the Steelers, but San Antonio is probably tempting.) Ditto for most of the south and midwest, actually.

So, we have a league that plays on Friday nights in the fall (strike one), is entering a crowded market (strike two), and likely features no unique spin on professional football (strike three, you're out). None of the successfull "other" leagues (Arena, CFL, AFL) had so many things going against them.

Sorry Mark, you'd be better off trying to buy into an existing sports league. Like, say, in your hometown.

Steelers Assistant Sent Porn to Dozens of NFL Employees

Desroko — Mon, 21 May 2007 23:49:50 -0000

Offensive line coach Larry Zierlein is the formerly anonymnous assistant coach responsible for accidentally forwarding a pornographic e-mail to dozens of league employees, including every GM and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.

Say what you will about the decline of the Steelers o-line under Russ Grimm's tenure - he hasn't done anything this stupid. First one of our practice-squad guys is outed as a pimp, and now one of our assistants email-blasts porn throughout the league. What's next - is Ben Roethlisberger going to be presenting at the Adult Video Awards?

Zierlein will probably get a fine from the league, but I doubt that anything harsh is in store for him. Most of the folks who got his message probably weren't very pleased, but tt's not like he failed a drug test.

h/t to Aol Sports Blog

Update: Zierlein and director of personnel Kevin Whaley, who sent the email to Zierlein, have both been let off with a wrist-slap. I expected a fine, at the least.