SB Nation User Blog: Dewey Finn

Brett Wallace vs Josh Bell

Dewey Finn — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 18:28:45 -0000

Who do you believe is the better 3B prospect?

Brett Wallace (born 1986): .293/.367/.455/.822, 116 K, 47 BB (AA/AAA)

Joshua Bell (born 1986): .295/.376/.516/.892, 98 K, 61 BB (AA/AAA)

I guess the obvious question is whether both of these kids will actually be 3B in the majors. For now, Wallace is still a 3B in the Athletics organization and Bell has been getting good reviews on the improvements he has made defensively. Offensively, Wallace and Bell appear very similar. Bell is technically a switch-hitter, although he struggles mightily against lefties. Unless he gets better, he might have to give up switch-hitting. Wallace was probably the best pure hitter coming out of the 2008 Draft and really hasn't disappointed since. The bat was never really questioned, just the defense.

Personally, I prefer Josh Bell right now. I think he has a higher power potential, and otherwise similar and perhaps better K & BB rates than Brett Wallace. Factor in defense, and I think Bell definitely gets the edge.

What are your thoughts? Who do you like more?

Ike Davis vs Yonder Alonso

Dewey Finn — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 15:16:18 -0000

Who do you believe is the better 1B prospect?

Both guys were drafted in the 2008 Draft, Alonso going 7th overall, and Davis 18th overall. Heading into the season, I definitely preferred Alonso over Davis. He has an excellent approach at the plate and much better control of the strikezone than Davis. Davis' minor league career actually got off to a very slow start in '08 and many Mets fans (according to various websites) were calling him a bust. However, at the end of the 2009 season, I'm not so sure if I would prefer Alonso over Davis anymore. Davis had a tremendous season and showed why he was a star at AZU. He displayed the power you would want from a 1B bat and has made the Mets brass believe that he'll be ready by 2011. Davis has a solid walk rate, but needs to cut down on the strikeouts.

Ike Davis (born 1987) - .298/.381/.524/.906 (A+, AA)

Yonder Alonso (born 1987) - .292/.372/.464/.838 (A+, AA)

Looking to the future, I see Ike Davis putting up 30+ HRs with a .280-.290 avg. Alonso should post a higher batting avg .300+ but with less power probably in the 15-24 HR range (with help from Great American Ballpark). I'm not sure how they fair defensively, but Davis doesn't seem to have a roadblock at 1B in NY, whereas Votto seems to be doing a nice job at 1B for CIN. Could Alonso be moved to LF? I think Votto might be better suited to play the OF due to his athleticism. One concern that I do have for Alonso with regards to power is that he had his hamate bone broken in 2009. Both Davis and Alonso need to improve against southpaws as well.

Anyways, what are your thoughts? Who would you prefer as your 1B? Possible comps?

I think Davis has closed the gap on Alonso.

FWIW, in the AFL...

Davis (21 games) - .341/.394/.565/.958

Alonso (21 games) - .267/.353/.395/.748

Rajai Davis in 2010

Dewey Finn — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:42:37 -0000

After being a 4th OF to start the year, Rajai Davis was finally given an opportunity to play everyday by the Oakland Athletics and produced as a valuable top of the order threat. In 125 games (390 AB), Davis put up a .305/.360/.423 line with 41 SBs in 53 attempts. Heading into 2010, Davis is penciled in as the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the Oakland A's. The Bill James Projection has him hitting .284 with 50 SBs.

What do you guys think?

As an everyday player (500 AB), I see him hitting anywhere from .280-.300 with 50-60 SBs and 90+ runs.

Chris Withrow vs Jenrry Mejia

Dewey Finn — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:24:14 -0000

From what I've read, Meija throws a mid to high 90s fastball with a splitter/change in the high 80s. His command of the change/splitter needs work but it can be a plus pitch at times, and I think he might also have a curve as a 3rd pitch. His strikeout rate is very good and his groundball rates are excellent. One of the concerns is that he is a little guy (6 feet), so the questions of bullpen v starting will continue until a role is defined. As for Withrow, I will admit that I dont know too much about him. He seems to be getting a lot of hype on this board. He has shown strong k rates, but walks appear to be a problem with him. Some have mentioned AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett as possible comps, which leads me to believe that he must have a really good fastball/curveball combo. Can you guys tell me more about Withrow?

Anyways, who do you believe is the better pitching prospect and why? Potential upsides?

Thanks.

Poll

Chris Withrow vs Jenrry Mejia: Who's the better pitching prospect?

Seth Smith in 2010

Dewey Finn — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 20:15:02 -0000

2009 Stats: .311/.397/.549/.947

Seth Smith is finally getting some much deserved regular playing time from manager Jim Tracy. My concern is that with a crowded outfield in Colorado (Brad Hawpe, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez), something has gotta give eventually. Who do you believe will be the odd man out? Carlos Gonzalez has nothing left to prove in the minors, Dexter Fowler seems capable of holding his own in the majors, and Brad Hawpe is Rox middle of the order run producer. Where does that leave Seth Smith? Smith can definitely hit and deserves to be in the lineup on a regular basis now and heading into next season. Is there a strong possibility that Brad Hawpe will be traded during the offseason? In my opinion, that's the only way Smith will be guaranteed everyday playing time next season.

What do you project for the future of the Rox OF?

If Smith were to eventually receive 500+ ABs/season, what kind of stats can he produce? .300+ 25-30 HR?

In 401 MLB ABs (career), Smith has a .307/.392/.534/.926 line with 19 HRs.

Michael Brantley in 2010

Dewey Finn — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 03:51:23 -0000

It's been a very small sample thus far, but Michael Brantley looks like he really fits and belongs atop the Cleveland Indians lineup. I am wondering what the Indians will do with him heading into the 2010 season. In my opinion, I think he is ready for the majors and should be a mainstay in the Indians lineup. Right now he is filling in for the injured Grady Sizemore in center field, but what will his future position be for the Tribe? Left field? Shin Soo Choo seems to be settled into RF. I guess it comes down to where Matt LaPorta ends up defensively. If the Indians decide keep LaPorta in LF, I have no idea what the plan will be for Brantley. Ideally, LaPorta should move to 1B to make room in LF for Brantley. How is Brantley defensively? Would his defensive skills be wasted in LF?

Lineup wise, I think he should leadoff with Sizemore dropping to the #3 spot or #4 spot. Possible lineup in '10:

1. Brantley LF

2. Cabrera SS

3. Choo RF

4. Sizemore CF

5. LaPorta 1B

6. Hafner DH

7. Peralta 3B

8. Valbuena 2B

9. Shoppach C (or possibly Santana)

What do you think the Indians plan is for Michael Brantley in 2010? What do you think it should be?

Any possible comps? Bourn? Ellsbury? Pierre?

Scott Feldman - Legit?

Dewey Finn — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 01:36:23 -0000

Season Stats: 163.2 IP, 16W-4L, 3.46 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 95 K, 54 BB

Post-All Star: 67.1 IP, 8W-2L, 2.94 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 49 K, 22 BB

I've been waiting all season for him to "come back to earth", but he just keeps rolling along, and even getting better. I recently came across a very interesting article on Fangraphs http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-evolution-of-scott-feldman which discusses his cut fastball as perhaps being the best in all of baseball.

What are your thoughts on him? Do you think he is for real? One thing's for sure, he's been clutch for the Rangers.

Jonathan Sanchez - What Clicked?

Dewey Finn — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 01:34:27 -0000

Much like Oliver Perez, Jonathan Sanchez has always seemed like a major c#&@ tease. The end of season numbers are typically never pretty. However, there are short periods within the seasons where he flashes the potential of being a dominant starting pitcher. The stuff has always been there I believe, but unfortunately, the consistency has not. After a rough May/June, Sanchez has really turned it on in the past couple of months:

April: 17 IP, 17 K, 12 BB, 2.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

May: 30 IP, 28 K, 22 BB, 6.00 ERA, 1.80 WHIP

June: 20.1 IP, 22 K, 12 BB, 7.08 ERA, 2.02 WHIP

July: 27.2 IP, 32 K, 8 BB, 3.25 ERA, 0.76 WHIP

August: 31 IP, 38 K, 16 BB, 2.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

September: 12 IP, 17 K, 6 BB, 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

Sanchez has increased his K rate and improved his BB rate from the 1st half of the season. Do you believe he has finally figured it out? Or is this just a hot streak? His minor league track record supports his 2nd half numbers.

What is your opinion on Jonathan Sanchez? Do you expect a big 2010 season out of him?

If the current strides he has made over the course of the season are for real, I think a 2010 season with a 3.50-3.75 ERA, 1.25-1.30 WHIP, & 180-200 Ks is possible. I realize I am probably being overly optimisitc, but after watching some of his starts recently, he really looks like a totally different pitcher from the 1st half. He's been NASTY.

Future Blue Jays "Ace"?

Dewey Finn — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 21:34:45 -0000

The likelihood of Roy Halladay remaining in a Blue Jays uniform long-term remains slim despite failed efforts by JP Ricciardi to trade him last month. Going forward, I am wondering who will be anchoring the Jays staff. Dustin McGowan's progress from his surgeries has been extremely slow, and I have serious doubts if he will ever be the same again. Shaun Marcum appears to have recovered from TJ surgery, but will not return to the Jays this season. Hopefully he can regain his pre-surgery stuff and step right into the rotation in 2010. Jesse Litsch also had TJ surgery, but I only see him as a back-end type starter. Brett Cecil has had his ups and downs, but with better consistency, I think he can be a valuable asset to the rotation next season. In my opinion, he's got a pretty solid arsenal of pitches.

Let's focus our attention on another two rookie pitchers this season who have been very impressive for the Blue Jays. Marc Rzepczynski was a relatively unknown kid heading into this season, but has performed exceptionally well in the minors this year with strong groundball & strikeout rates. He has carried this success to the MLB level through a small sample of 9 starts. For the past couple of seasons, Ricky Romero was seen as a ‘bust' and over-draft. However, Romero won a starting job in spring training and has pitched well at the MLB level ever since.

Question: Who do you believe will be the "Ace" for the Blue Jays with Doc gone, Rzep or Romero?

***By "Ace", I mean the best arm on the Jays staff, ie the go-to guy like Doc has been for so long. I don't mean "Ace" like Sabathia, Santana, Lincecum, etc. Please understand the distinction I am trying to make. Thanks!

Rzepczynski	Stats	Romero
3.65	ERA	3.95
1.28	WHIP	1.40
4.08	FIP	4.51
8.03	K/9	6.97
4.20	BB/9	3.59
1.91	K/BB	1.94
0.91	HR/9	1.15
13.2	HR/FB %	14.7
20.9	LD %	18.9
51.8	GB %	51.4
27.3	FB %	29.8
1.89	GB/FB	1.72

Mattingly vs Puckett

Dewey Finn — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 04:11:27 -0000

1B Don Mattingly		OF Kirby Puckett (HOF)
1785	Games	1783
7003	At Bats	7244
2153	Hits	2304
1007	Runs	1071
442	Doubles	414
222	HR	207
1099	RBIs	1085
588	BB	450
444	K	965
.307	BA	.318
.358	OBP	.360
.471	SLG	.477

On my way to work this morning, I heard an interesting discussion on the local sports radio (Fan 590 - Toronto) about Don Mattingly deserving to be in the Hall of Fame. The radio personalities used Kirby Puckett and his statistics as a comp to justify their case for Mattingly to be in the HOF. What do you guys think? Does Don Mattingly belong in the Hall of Fame? Is Kirby Puckett a fair comparison to support their argument? Mattingly was awesome from '84-'89. If Mattingly didn't suffer from the debilitating back problems, how good do you think he could have been??? (stats)