SB Nation User Blog: DexterFishmore

Artest Is Fitting in Quite Well, and Other Good News

DexterFishmore — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:51:10 -0000

Last October, as part of our preview series, I published a piece here titled Stat Trends to Watch in the New Season. In it I broke down five statistical issues I thought would be especially telling as the Lakers' title defense got underway. The season has reached and passed the quarter pole, and with a short break in the action - the Lakers are off until tomorrow night - now's a good time to revisit those five issues to see how things are shaping up.

Not surprisingly given the Lake Show's 18-4 start, the news is mostly good. It's still early and we're dealing with smallish sample sizes, but the way the numbers are breaking bodes well for this year's team. Let's dive right into another Laker Stats Orgy.

1. Ron Artest's Usage Rate and True Shooting Percentage.

As I discussed in the original piece, Ron Artest's signing with the Lakers raised an interesting question of fit. Throughout his career, Ron has generally been a high-volume shooter of middling efficiency. His offensive skill set was useful on a Houston Rockets team staffed with role players who couldn't really create shots for themselves, but on a Lakers team bristling with scorers, something had to give. The best-case scenario would be that he segues gracefully into the Trevor Ariza role, that of an efficient but secondary offensive option. The worst-case scenario would be him draining possessions from Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and others, burning those possessions inefficiently and thus dragging down the Laker attack.

So far, the Artest Experiment is going just fine. Ron has gone out of his way to defer to the Lakers' other shooting options - his usage rate (the percentage of the team's possessions he uses while he's on the floor) is down to 18% from 23% last year - and his True Shooting Percentage is up a few ticks. I expect his TS% to increase further, in fact, as Ron's shooting only 62% from the free-throw line. That's well below his career average of 72% and is likely just a fluke. As his free-throw accuracy regresses to the mean, he'll become an even more efficient scorer.

Another good indicator of Artest's fit in the Laker offense is his assist rate. This measures the percentage of a player's possessions that ends in an assist. Ron's assist rate so far this season is over 21%, which is far and away his career high. The stats here confirm what our eyes have been telling us - that Ron is an exceptionally skilled passer who's made feeding his teammates a priority.

There are two areas of improvement I'd like to see in Ron's numbers. First, turnovers. I want fewer of them. Right now he's turning the ball over on about 12% of his possessions, which isn't good for a small forward. That's higher than his career norms, so he should be able to bring that down.

Second, Ron doesn't seem to be all that good at finishing at the rim. He gets to the rum perfectly fine, nearly five times per 40 minutes, but he converts only about 50% of those looks. Just to pick a couple comps not quite at random, Kobe's conversion rate at the rim is generally 60% or above, as is Ariza's. Ron doesn't have the ups those guys do, and he also appears to hurry his shot when he gets a close look. Take it from Dr. Dre, Ron: slower is better.

2. Opponents' Three-Point Attempts and Accuracy.

Last year the Lakers pulled off an unusual trick: they had a very good defense despite allowing opponents to hoist a bunch of threes. Those two things don't typically go together. You defend the perimeter, stathead orthodoxy will tell you, by chasing shooters off the three-point line. There's a lot of evidence that teams don't have much control over opponents' three-point accuracy, so the key is to limit their three-point attempts. Make them take long twos instead. That's not what the Lakers did last season, but they got away with it because their opponents made only 34% of their threes, the third-lowest rate in the league.

Was this just good fortune, or are the Lakers really onto something? The numbers so far suggest the latter. The Laker defense has really tightened up the number of three-point attempts it allows: only 21% of total FGAs, eighth-best in the league. And of the threes that go up, less than 30% go in, easily the best in the league. It looks like the Lakers actually do know how to shut down the long-distance game.

The Lakers are blessed with long and athletic perimeter defenders, which obviously helps, but the strong-side trap they installed at the beginning of last season is proving to be a robust system. We should also note that they've maintained and even improved on last year's stingy D despite the loss of Kurt Rambis, the team's de facto "defensive coordinator." Hats off to Phil and his assistants for not missing a beat.

3. Opponents' Free-Throw Accuracy.

Speaking of good fortune.

Opponents of the 2008-09 Lakers made 75.3% of their free-throw attempts. Only opponents of the Rockets shot worse, meaning the Lakers got fairly lucky. It's not the hugest deal ever - their good luck was worth something like 35 points over the course of the season - but it's enough to swing a game here and there. So how's the free-throw "defense" holding up so far in the new campaign?

In absolute terms, it's been almost exactly identical: opponents are hitting 75.4% of their freebies. The league average is down a couple percentage points this season, however, so you can't really say the Lakers are still coasting on luck. What they've "allowed" is right at the league mean.

It still becomes relevant on a micro level from time to time. Kobe's epic buzzer-beater against Miami, you might recall, was made possible only because the Heat, a 75% free-throw shooting team on average, shot 64% from the line that night. Had they made free throws at their normal rate, they would've scored five additional points, swinging the outcome in their favor.

4. Kobe's Free Throw Attempts.

In October I observed, to everyone's delight, that Kobe's tendency to draw fouls and get to the free-throw line had declined sharply from the previous season. His ratio of free-throws attempted to field-goals attempted, a basic measure of a player's ability to get to the line that I'll refer to as "Free Throw Rate" for brevity's sake, had dropped 25% from 2007-08. Here, to remind us all what we're talking about, are his recent Free Throw Rates by season and age.

Season	Age	FTA/FGA
2003-04	25	0.45
2004-05	26	0.50
2005-06	27	0.38
2006-07	28	0.44
2007-08	29	0.44
2008-09	30	0.33

The fall-off is problematic for a couple reasons. One, the free-throw line is among the most efficient ways to score points. Two, a declining Free Throw Rate can be an early warning sign of aging. It can indicate that a player is losing a step and can't beat opposing defenders like he used to. I didn't argue that Kobe had, in fact, lost a step - just that this is something to keep an eye on as his odometer keeps spinning upward.

His Free Throw Rate looking so far this year? Steady as she goes - 0.32, almost the same as last season. That's good news, as are the other readings we often look to as a way of measuring athleticism. Kobe's steals and offensive rebounds are both up significantly, and the advanced metrics that try to capture individual D say that he's defending as well as ever. To the naked eye, he looks even stronger than he did last year (his recent injury and illness aside).

Everything checks out fine, in other words. Admittedly, though, I don't know why Kobe's Free Throw Rate is hovering below his career levels. I recently examined Free Throw Rates of 20 or so elite scoring wings from the last three decades and found that most of them didn't suffer declines in this metric in their early 30's. At this stage of their careers, most held steady or even got better at getting to the stripe.

My working hypothesis with Kobe is that his Free Throw Rate has been affected by the emergence of Andrew Bynum as an offensive force and the arrival of Pau Gasol. These two events happened during the 2008-09 season, which is when the falloff in Kobe's FT attempts kicked in. With a pair of potent offensive options in the lane, Kobe may well have decided that the Laker offense no longer required him to hurl himself into the paint (and subject himself to possible injury) quite so much. To test this I need to take a closer look at game-by-game shot charts from this season and last, but it all seems plausible on its face.

5. DJ Mbenga's Block Rate.

Still very good!

This one I tossed into the October piece as a little pat on DJ's back, since he didn't get much love from our previews otherwise. As it happens, the man has played more this season than we guessed he would, owing to the Bynum and Gasol injuries. And he's held his own! His defensive numbers are strong across the board, and while his block rate (the percentage of the opponent's two-point shots he blocks while he's on the floor) is down from the insane 10.2% of last season, it's nonetheless at a very-respectable 7.2%.

So much respect to DJ, seriously. There are many worse backup centers in the league. For the cut-rate salary of less than a mill, he's quite the good value.

All numbers courtesy of Basketball Reference and HoopData.

Kobe Should Not Have Played Tonight

DexterFishmore — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 07:33:48 -0000

You know it. I know it. Kobe knows it. Most of all, the Utah Jazz know it.

To say that he shouldn't have played tonight isn't a diss of Kobe. It's really not. It doesn't mean he isn't tough, or that he isn't completely awesome. It just means he has a human body like the rest of us, one vulnerable to harm and illness. With a broken finger and a stomach virus, not only was he not his usual self tonight. He wasn't even at sufficient strength to help the Lakers, who lost to the Utah Jazz by the score of 94-102.

The numbers are bracing: Kobe shot 7 for 24, his worst shooting performance of the season. He didn't have the energy to get to the basket, to get lift on his jumpers, or to keep up on defense. The Lakers have proven that they have enough talent to win games without Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. That means they have enough to win a few without Kobe, and both he and Phil Jackson need to realize it. If he needs a week or two off to get better, the franchise will survive.

The game tonight came down to that obscure skill known as making baskets. Those shots that fell for the Lakers at Staples wouldn't stay down. All those bricks the Jazz threw up at Staples found their way to the bottom of the hoop. It's the mystery of home-court advantage in the NBA. You either come to terms with it, or you drive yourself mad.

With the loss the Lakers are 18-4, no longer proud owners of the NBA's best record. To Chicago on Tuesday night we go. Times could get worse, but they're likely to get better.

(P.S. - Can't quite put my finger on why, but the screengrab below encapsulates this game for me perfectly.)

(P.P.S. - Hot Rod Hundley is a total disaster.)

	Poss.	TO%	FTA/ FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
L.A.	89	19	0.30	71	48	52	35	76	1.06
Utah	89	17	0.23	83	56	60	24	65	1.15

Lakers-Jazz Open Thread

DexterFishmore — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 00:07:05 -0000

Lots of red flags waiving around Lakerdom tonight. Road game. Kobe's finger. Stage two of a back-to-back. Overnight travel to a cold, grim climate. Kobe's finger. Utah craving revenge for the Quarter That Will Live in Infamy.

Kobe's finger.

Good news, though: the Jazz will once again wear their Green Bay Packer tribute uniforms tonight. The Lakers will wear their home golds. On Wednesday, at least, this color combination treated us well.

These shall be your drinking-game triggers for the evening.

Avulsion fracture.
"Payback."
Any technical or flagrant foul, of which I expect there to be at least three.
Anything about the Lakers finally being "tested on the road."
Any full sentence from Hot Rod Hundley all of whose words you actually understand and can transcribe accurately.

The Lakers are favored by 2 tonight. The floor is now yours.

Win Streak Hits 11, Kobe's Finger Banged

DexterFishmore — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 06:55:33 -0000

Lakerdom's lingua franca added a new medical term tonight: "avulsion fracture." That's what befell the precious right index finger of Kobe Bryant in the second quarter of a 104-92 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. It happened while he was defending Ryan Gomes near the sideline, and it sent him to the halftime locker room early. He returned, with a splint courtesy of trainer Gary Vitti, to play about 18 minutes in the second half, looking more or less OK, but he admitted after the game that it felt "pretty painful." Please commence your candlelight vigils.

The Lakers' effort level was up and down tonight. After opening up an 11-point lead early in the quarter, they let point guard Ramon Sessions engineer a comeback that made it a two-point game at half. L.A. allowed Minnesota to score 1.10 points per possession over the first two quarters, which is just absurd. The Wolves average 0.97 PPP on the season. On the road against a team with the Lakers' length, they shouldn't even sniff the 1.00 mark.

In the third quarter, the Lake Show locked everything down. They forced the Timberwolves to do what they do best - turn the rock over to the other team - and built up an 18-point margin. A key contribution was made by ~~Laker double agent~~ Minnesota head coach Kurt Rambis, who sat Sessions for the first 10 minutes of the third. Sessions was 6-for-6 in the first half, so it was nice of Rambis to cool him off.

There wasn't a lot of flow in the Laker offense tonight. It was one of their worst shooting performances in a while. Pau Gasol, though, put in an evening of solid work: 17 points, seven assists and a career-high 20 boards. Ron Artest was quietly productive (16 points, five assists and three steals), and backcourt reserves Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Sasha Vujacic chipped in 22. Onward to Utah.

Before we go, however, a heartfelt plea to Stu Lantz, wherever he may be: come back soon. I AM BEGGING. Hot Rod Hundley filled in tonight, and I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say his performance was the most tragic event in American history. About 80% of the game he spent mumbling impenetrably. Dude, seriously... you need to speak up and enunciate. You sound like an 80-year-old Boomhauer up past his bedtime. The remaining 20% of the game, we realized how nice things were when we couldn't understand what Hot Rod was saying.

I need my Stu back. I swear, I'm never writing a bad word about him again.

	Poss.	TO%	FTA/ FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Minny	96	18	0.18	75	45	48	32	71	0.96
L.A.	96	15	0.14	77	49	52	29	68	1.08

Lakers-Timberwolves Open Thread

DexterFishmore — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 02:18:11 -0000

Lamar Odom gets the thread pic and all associated mojo tonight. Make the most of your time, Lamar! You're likely to get off work early in favor of the Taco Unit.

Your drinking-game triggers for this one include any mention of the following.

Ricky Rubio.
Kevin Love and/or Ryan Hollins having played at UCLA.
Al Jefferson being "underrated."
The six-point fourth quarter.
Tiger Woods.

It's Friday night, my peoples, so crack a bottle. The Lakers are favored by 16.

Back-to-Back Preview: Timberwolves and Jazz

DexterFishmore — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 08:03:14 -0000

Who wants another Laker blowout?

I hope you all raised your hands, because you're getting one tonight whether you like it or not. The traveling clown show known as the Minnesota Timberwolves visits Staples this evening, and they're every bit as horrid as their 3-19 record would lead you to think. Under the tutelage of new coach Kurt Rambis, the T-Pups have been outscored by nearly 11 points per game, an even worse clip than that of the New Jersey Nets. You've gotta give them credit: they've come by their 0.136 winning percentage honestly.

After tonight's scrimmage, however, it's time to get back to work. The Lakers immediately hit the road for date number two with the Utah Jazz tomorrow night, followed by four more away games in distant time zones. Accordingly, against the low-grade Timberwolves it would behoove them not to monkey around. Drop the hammer early, and rest the starters as much as possible. They'll need their strength for the journey ahead.

Where do you even start with a team like Minnesota? With over a quarter of the season in the books, they've been bad enough to prompt John Hollinger to inquire, at column length, whether they'll prove to be one of the worst teams in NBA history. They recently had a string of 15 consecutive losses; the Lakers, by stark comparison, haven't lost 15 games in the last nine calendar months, even when you include all four of last year's playoff series. Minnesota's at or close to the bottom in about a dozen key statistical categories.

The Wolves' most acute failing has been an almost complete inability to put the ball in the hoop. Rambis has attempted to install the Triangle Offense he learned under Phil Jackson, but the results have not been sexy. Minny has an Offensive Rating of only 97.2, fourth-worst in the league. It's not surprising that the Triangle hasn't yielded instant returns - it's a hard offense to pick up and requires versatile, experienced players - but what the Wolves have been leaving on the court is some truly ugly crap.

Anthony Macri of Basketball Prospectus yesterday published an excellent piece analyzing why, on an X's and O's level, the Minnesota Triangle hasn't been working. I recommend you read the whole thing - I always learn something new whenever I read Macri's work - but here are a few money quotes.

Though Minnesota looks moderately comfortable running the read-and-react triangle, players are not always purposeful in their cuts and seem to rush through the options. Watch the next time they run a man off the elbow for a handoff - that player goes past and just floats to the next option. If the Wolves instead took their time and explored each cut and exploited each movement, they would find there are a lot of points waiting to be discovered....

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, there is hesitation on the part of multiple players in Minnesota to execute what Tex Winter called the "ping pass." This offense, by design, is one where the ball should be moved within two seconds of its being received (either by the pass or by the attacking dribble). The Timberwolves have too many players interested in stopping the ball. This is an offense-killer in the triangle and something that needs to be fixed in order for the Wolves to really make progress.

It'll be odd but interesting to see a team other than the Lakers run the Triangle. One would think the Lakers have a big head start in defending it, as it's the offense they run in practice every day. That cuts both ways, of course - the Timberwolves will arrive with some advance intel about the Laker offense - but the experience gap is massive.

Minny's primary offensive options are center Al Jefferson and rookie point guard Jonny Flynn. Jefferson was playing like a breakout star last year before suffering a season-ending ACL tear after 50 games. He's back but hasn't yet returned to pre-injury form. A heavier reliance on midrange jumpers has hurt his shooting numbers, and as an undersized center he's the type to struggle against the tall and lanky Laker bigs.

Flynn hasn't set the league afire like fellow rookies Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans, but he's had his moments, as when he held his own against Deron Williams in an upset win over Utah last weekend. He's been one of the most turnover-prone point guards in the NBA, a big reason why the Timberwolves are one of the most turnover-prone teams. He also has terrible defensive numbers; Minny is much better defensively when backup Ramon Sessions is on the floor. Sessions offers the added benefit of being one of the better rebounding guards around.

Much-needed reinforcement for Jefferson and Flynn has lately arrived in the form of Kevin Love. Tonight will be Love's fifth game back after recovering from a broken hand, and so far he's looking like the Wolves' best player even though Rambis hasn't started him yet. Per 40 minutes of play he's averaging 22 points on 69% True Shooting. Like Jefferson, he's short for his position and will have problems with whoever's guarding him this evening, but he's strong and a phenomenal position rebounder. If the Lakers are as indifferent on the defensive glass as they were in the first half against the Jazz, Love will find garbage points available in bunches.

Aside from turnovers, Minnesota's other big, big problem is that they have no shooters to stretch the floor. They both take and make threes at some of the lowest rates in the league. Corey Brewer is the NBA's worst starting shooting guard, and things don't really improve when rookie Wayne Ellington replaces him on the floor. Combined, they're making 18% of their three-point attempts. I repeat: these are professional shooting guards.

The Wolves' starting small forward is, I kid you not, Damien Wilkins. On any reputable team he'd be a purely garbage-time performer. Oleksiy Pecherov comes off the bench to satisfy the requirement that every NBA franchise have at least one player from the former Soviet Union.

At power forward, Ryan Gomes has been a relative bright spot. He hovers toward the bottom of the top 20 in a number of positional stat rankings. He's basically the only T-Wolf who can hit a three, but he attempts only a couple each game. It seems safe to say that when Ryan Gomes is one of your team's most valuable contributors, you're at or near the bottom of the rebuilding curve.

I should point out a couple things in half-assed defense of Minnesota. One, they're not as bad on D. Please don't think they're any good, mind you, but they're not the fumbling disaster their offensive "attack" is. Two, their recent play has flirted with respectability: over their five most recent games they've been outscored by only 0.02 points per possession against a not-horrible slate of opponents. As mentioned above, they beat Utah at home, and they even stole a win in Denver on November 29th.

Whatever - they're losing tonight, and they're losing big. Rambis will get his championship ring before the game, but that'll be the high point for them. This time tomorrow the Lakers will be 18-3.

Catching Up With the Jazz

A far sterner challenge awaits the Lakers tomorrow, when they visit SLC for their second game against the Jazz in four days. This will be the Lakers' fourth back-to-back set of the season so far. In their first three they went 2-1 on the back ends. On November 4th, they beat Houston by a point in overtime; on November 13th they got destroyed in Denver; and on November 29th they yawned their way past the Nets. Last year the Lakers were 14-5 in the second games of back-to-backs.

We've talked plenty about the Jazz lately. For a detailed scouting report you can see my preview of Wednesday's matchup here. There's also lots of recappage and highlights available all over SS&R if you want to poke around a bit. The Jazz did, you should know, bounce back nicely from the massacre at Staples by beating Orlando last night, 120-111. They sliced up a good Magic defense for over 1.25 PPP, with Deron Williams (32 points, 15 assists, 8 rebounds, 1 turnover) balling out of his mind.

I think we can assume there won't be any six-point quarters to enjoy tomorrow.

Our sister sites Canis Hoopus and SLC Dunk will have more coverage of these matchups. They both do a fine job and are worth your time to check out. If you decide to wander over and say hello, please be excellent to everyone.

	Lakers	Timberwolves	Jazz
*RECORD*	17-3	3-19	13-9
*NET POINTS PER GAME*	+9.1 (1st)	-10.9 (30th)	+2.3 (11th)
*PACE*	95.0 (6th)	94.9 (7th)	91.4 (23rd)
*OFFENSIVE RATING*	108.8 (11th)	97.2 (29th)	109.1 (10th)
Turnover Rate (Off.)	12.7% (4th)	15.1 (29th)	14.1 (16th)
FTA/FGA (Off.)	0.27 (25th)	0.24 (29th)	0.31 (16th)
Free-Throw %	75.6 (14th)	72.3 (27th)	75.4 (16th)
Effective FG% (Off.)	50.3 (13th)	46.3 (28th)	51.4 (9th)
True Shooting% (Off.)	54.1 (16th)	49.8 (28th)	55.5 (9th)
Off Rebounding Rate	27.6% (10th)	26.5% (18th)	27.0 (14th)
*DEFENSIVE RATING*	99.3 (2nd)	108.7 (22nd)	106.9 (17th)
Turnover Rate (Def.)	14.5% (11th)	14.4% (12th)	13.4% (18th)
FTA/FGA (Def.)	0.27 (5th)	0.30 (13th)	0.34 (25th)
Effective FG% (Def.)	45.5 (1st)	51.3 (24th)	50.2 (20th)
True Shooting% (Def.)	50.0 (1st)	55.6 (23rd)	54.8 (20th)
Def Rebounding Rate	72.2% (23rd)	73.0% (16th)	75.4% (6th)

All statistical terms defined here. Parentheses indicate league rankings. Numbers are courtesy of Basketball Reference and HoopData and, except for record and net points per game, are through Thursday night's action.

Appetite for Destruction: Lakers Demolish Jazz

DexterFishmore — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 06:58:47 -0000

I'm feeling a bit dazed at the moment, as I'm sure are the Utah Jazz. That fourth quarter was a lot to take in. In a matter of minutes, a tightly contested game that looked like it would go down to the wire turned into a brutal street crime. The Los Angeles Lakers, cranking up their defense like we've never seen, strangled the Jazz into submission, stole their wallets and ice, and then kept kicking their lifeless bodies just for fun. Utah managed only six points in the fourth. Seis.

Someone should probably get them to a hospital.

The masterpiece that was the fourth quarter redeemed what had been an uninspired effort to that point. In the first half, the Lakers looked annoyed that someone was asking them to defend the Utah offense, which ran with its usual Swiss-engineered precision. Open looks were abundant for Jazz shooters, who hit four of their first eight three-point attempts. Shannon Brown (failing to follow cutters) and Andrew Bynum (failing to rebound) were the chief offenders, but nobody in Lakerdom distinguished himself.

In the third, Utah finally started missing threes - they would end up honking their last nine attempts from distance - and the Lakers exploited the chance to claw back into the lead. Kobe Bryant had 13 in the third, which ended with a Jordan Farmar money ball. Jordan had another in a string of quality efforts. He finished with 11 points, four rebounds and a net plus-minus of +17.

And then the fourth quarter started, and there was BLOOD EVERYWHERE. Voracious and predatory was the Laker defense. For the quarter the Jazz turned the ball over eight times in 24 possessions and shot 2 for 18. It was, let's just say it, the best 12 minutes of Laker D any of us have seen. Like, ever. The final score was 101 to 77.

Here, for your amusement, is how the teams fared in points per possession by quarter.

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Game
Utah	1.14	1.27	0.83	0.25	0.86
Los Angeles	1.14	1.04	1.09	1.17	1.11

The Lakers are now 17-3 and have won 10 straight. They're undefeated since the return of Pau Gasol. Here are the game stats, followed by a tasty dunk by Shannon. I believe it will meet with your satisfaction.

	Poss.	TO%	FTA/ FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
Utah	90	19	0.22	79	36	41	33	75	0.86
L.A.	91	10	0.40	77	49	55	25	67	1.11

Lakers-Jazz Open Thread

DexterFishmore — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:41:05 -0000

Jordan Farmar gets the thread pic tonight, in recognition of recent outstanding service to the Laker cause. He best not make me regret this decision.

Your drinking-game triggers for tonight are hereby decreed.

Any mention of Utah being a "physical team."
Any comparison of Deron-Boozer to Stockton and Malone.
Vinny Del Negro getting fired.
Any talk of the cold weather in LA.
As always, my personal favorite: Joel Meyers mentioning points off turnovers.

It actually is quite cold in SoCal tonight: below 60 degrees! I'm good, though. I've got my hot cocoa brewing and my Snuggie fresh from the dryer. It's time to curl up on the couch with our open game thread.

Lakers-Jazz Preview

DexterFishmore — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 11:15:50 -0000

The Los Angeles Lakers aren't the only team that hasn't been getting out of the house much. The Utah Jazz have played seven of their last eight at home. They've won six of those eight to get well after a 4-6 start to the season, but the competition has been squishy: Utah's eight most recent opponents have a combined winning percentage of 0.415. The Jazz tonight attempt a big step up in weight class, facing the Lakers for the first time since the teams' opening-round playoff series last April.

Strength of schedule aside, there's no debating whether Utah's on a good run. They are. Carlos Boozer, the world's second-most famous Alaskan, is putting up All-Star numbers, and his running mate Deron Williams is getting sharp again after missing a couple games to deal with a family medical issue. Center Mehmet Okur, who played little in the playoffs last year, is back as the third option. Wesley Matthews and Eric Maynor are intriguing rooks getting real minutes.

There are new friends and old, in other words. With seemingly half the Lakers' games so far coming against Phoenix, Houston or New Orleans, I look forward to seeing someone new come to town. Let's get to know them a little better.

First, a quick review of who's not playing. Forward Andrei Kirilenko (strained lower back) and backup center Kyrylo Fesenko (stomach virus) did not travel with the team to Los Angeles. So much, I guess, for ratings in the former Soviet Union. Shooting guards Kyle Korver (recovering from knee surgery) and Ronnie Price (foot injury) are out as well. Utah's playing thin, obvy.

Also absent tonight will be our boy Stu Lantz. Stu, it's been announced, will miss the next seven games while his wife Linda recovers from surgery. Hot Rod Hundley, former Laker and longtime Jazz announcer, will be filling in for tonight at least. All our best to Stu and Linda.

Utah's strength is its offense, which tactically hasn't changed in about three decades. They still run that deliberate, half-court pick-and-roll game that drives everyone nuts. Their Offensive Rating of 107.3 ranks seventh in the NBA, and they're top six in both Effective Field-Goal and True Shooting Percentage. You won't see them bomb away from three a whole bunch, and their team three-point accuracy of 35% is only middle of the pack, but Jazz shooters enter tonight's game on a hot streak. Over the past five games they've drained a stellar 41% of their long balls.

After a forgettable, injury-filled campaign last year, Boozer now looks like a man playing for a new contract, which not coincidentally he is. The guy is destroying people. Here are his numbers over the last eight games.

FGs	EFG%	FTs	FT%	TS%	PPG	RPG
82-125	66%	45-56	80%	70%	26.1	10.2

A look at Boozer's shot-location chart shows the engine of his improvement: the midrange game. Away from the rim and out to 15 feet, he's taking the same number of shots he did last year, about four per game. But whereas last season he made only 34% of his attempts, this year he's making 50%. The Laker bigs have the length and quickness to frustrate Boozer, but they'll have to be active and aggressive. If they kick it near the hoop and wait for Boozer to come from them, he'll feast all night on those little 12-foot J's.

Deron Williams, though he's been playing pretty well lately, doesn't seem quite himself this year. His turnovers are up, he's making only 72% of his free throws (after hitting about 80% over his first four seasons), and he's getting to the rim much less than he has in years past. He still presents a difficult matchup for the Lake Show. I'm of the view that Derek Fisher has been better on D than he was last year, but he just doesn't have the muscle to control Williams. With Kirilenko and Korver out of commission, Utah's wings aren't much of a threat, so it's likely we'll see both Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest try to body up Williams at some point.

Who are Utah's wings, you ask? Matthews has been starting at shooting guard, and Ronnie Brewer at small forward. An undrafted rookie out of Marquette, Matthews has been a surprise contributor. He's a low-volume, turnover-prone offensive player, but he's making 38% of his threes, so you can't totally forget about him, and he's been earning positive notices for his D. He'll likely get first crack at guarding Kobe - good luck with that, young buck.

For the second straight game, the Lakers face an opponent with a "stretch 5" - a center who enjoys chucking threes. Channing Frye didn't do much damage on Sunday, and now Okur and his 48% three-point shooting are the challenge. The Lakers are the best in the league at defending the money ball. Their zone-y defensive principles mean Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol don't have to chase guys like Okur all over the court, and there's enough size on the perimeter between Kobe, Artest and Lamar Odom to make drainable looks hard to come by even for the tallest gunners. It seems, therefore, the Laker D is well designed and equipp ed for this matchup.

Eric Maynor is a dude I'm excited to check out. A member of what appears to be an all-time great class of rookie point guards, he comes off the bench for 15 minutes a night. He hasn't found his shooting touch in the NBA yet, but his assist and turnover numbers are fantastic. He should have a long pro career as a backup point.

Also off the bench we'll see power forward Paul Millsap, at $8 million luxury-grade reserve. He hasn't been the same productive force he was last year - turnovers up, rebounds down - but is nonetheless a valuable part of the second unit. Small forward CJ Miles recently made his season debut and could get 15-20 minutes of run.

Not unlike the Suns team the Lakers just got done embarrassing, the Jazz undo a lot of their good work on offense with a pretty terrible D. They control the defensive glass well but are below average in everything else. They're coming off two particularly grim performances, allowing 1.19 points per possession to Minnesota and then 1.16 PPP to San Antonio. Fouling the hell out of their opponents, look a disreputable feature of the Utah D, is again emerging as a tendency. Their opponents have an FTA/FGA of 0.34 for the season, seventh highest in the NBA, and that number has been even higher (0.41) over the past five games.

A central problem with their defense is their starting big men: Boozer and Okur have been terrible at that end of the floor. Their advanced metrics coming into this season weren't bad, but they've both posted defensive plus-minus stats this year that are just putrid. Millsap has been better those guys, as has been Kirilenko. The Lakers catch a break by not having to deal with the latter.

Utah is a perfectly decent team, to be sure. Williams is always fun to watch, and if the Laker big men are sloppy on D, Boozer and Okur could get big numbers. Staples Center, though, has become where perfectly decent teams go to get pounded. Absent a bed-crapping reminiscent of the Miami game, a 10th straight victory for the Lake Show awaits.

	Lakers	Jazz
*RECORD*	16-3	12-8
*NET POINTS PER GAME*	+8.3 (2nd)	+3.3 (9th)
*PACE*	97.8 (5th)	93.6 (22nd)
*OFFENSIVE RATING*	105.6 (13th)	107.3 (7th)
Turnover Rate (Off.)	12.9% (5th)	14.0 (18th)
FTA/FGA (Off.)	0.27 (25th)	0.31 (16th)
Free-Throw %	75.5 (15th)	75.3 (16th)
Effective FG% (Off.)	50.3 (12th)	52.2 (5th)
True Shooting% (Off.)	54.0 (16th)	56.3 (6th)
Off Rebounding Rate	27.8% (10th)	26.8 (18th)
*DEFENSIVE RATING*	97.4 (3rd)	104.6 (19th)
Turnover Rate (Def.)	14.5% (12th)	13.6 (7th)
FTA/FGA (Def.)	0.27 (6th)	0.34 (24th)
Effective FG% (Def.)	46.0 (1st)	50.2 (20th)
True Shooting% (Def.)	50.5 (1st)	54.8 (20th)
Def Rebounding Rate	72.3 (21st)	75.3 (5th)

All statistical terms defined here. Parentheses indicate league rankings. Numbers are courtesy of Basketball Reference and HoopData and, except for record and net points per game, are through Monday night's action.

Suns Spanked Again

DexterFishmore — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 05:30:31 -0000

On Sunday the Los Angles Lakers faced the NBA's best offense and held it to less than a point per possession. That counts as a good day at the office. The Phoenix Suns played on Saturday night, which surely contributed to their wan effort, but the Lakers defended with purpose and vigor. They forced turnovers, kept Phoenix off the free-throw line and, most important, made the Suns score two points at a time. An opponent that drains 10 threes on an average night attempted only 13, and made only four.

On offense the Lakemen inflicted damage inside and out. Seemingly resolved to avoid a repeat of the teams' first game in November, when Andrew Bynum roared for 26 easy points, Phoenix doubled the post hard and dared the Lakers to make threes. The strategy worked for a bit, as the Lakers made only two of their first eight three-point attempts, but eventually the open looks started falling, and that was pretty much that. For the game L.A. hit 10 of 21 money balls. Kobe Bryant had no trouble getting what he wanted: his 26 points entailed only 19 shots and a single turnover.

So bravo, fellas! The final score was 108 to 88. The Lakers are 16-3 and have won nine in a row.

Next victim, please.

	Poss.	TO%	FTA/ FGA	FT%	EFG%	TS%	Off Reb%	Def Reb%	PPP
L.A.	89	13	0.32	85	53	58	33	70	1.21
PHX	90	17	0.13	91	47	50	30	67	0.98