For those of you who don’t follow @cecillammey on Twitter, he posted about yesterday’s (Day 5) training camp this morning.  This is in backwards order, so start at the bottom and work your way up.

The discussion on TE Julius Thomas is particularly exciting.  (starting at 39 minutes ago)

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According to ProFootballTalk, the Houston Texans are looking to trade Amobi Okoye.  Okoye is a DT drafted 10th overall 4 years ago.  He is only 24 years old, but is a better fit for the 4-3 than the 3-4 the Texans are planning on running.  His stock is a little low right now based on the 3-4 play, but he is a good player.

This seems like a good possibility for a 3-way trade.  Haynesworth was traded for a 6th round pick this year and a 6th round pick next year.  I would guess that the Texans want better value for Okoye, but the trade would be in the ballpark.  Let's say they start with a 3rd, but would be willing to take a 4th this year and a 5th next year.

We are looking to get a 2nd from Miami for Orton, but that might be too high.  Miami would probably give up a 3rd and a 4th this year and 5th next.  Miami could send the 4th and 5th to Houston and a 3rd to us.  We would also receive Okoye from Houston.  Houston might a little more, but I think it could be worked out.

Overall, we would receive an immediate upgrade at DT, plus a 3rd or 4th for Orton.  Based on the (rediculous) Kobb trade, I think this a reasonable request.

What are your thoughts about a potential 3-way trade with Houston and Miami?

During the preseason, we have seen plenty of short passes from Orton and the first team offense.  These short passes are by design and will be a staple of the Denver Broncos offense in 2009 and years to come.  McDaniels purposely brought in RBs that can catch the ball out of the backfield and a QB that is accurate with short to intermediate passes for a specific reason, to control the ball.  Completing high percentage passes will put the offense in manageable situations, which will increase 3rd down percentage, sustain drives, and keep our offense on the field and the defense on the sideline.  This is the reason I believe that McDaniels drafted Moreno and brought in Orton, in addition to a number of other off-season acquisitions.

Last year, the New England Patriots defense ranked 19th in the NFL in yards/play, 26th in the NFL in 3rd down percentage and had +1 turnover margin.  These are numbers that are easily attainable by the Broncos defense this year.  This Patriots defense also ranked 8th in the NFL in points allowed.   How did this defense only allow 19.3 points per game?  By holding the ball on offense and keeping the defense fresh.  Last year, the New England Patriots ran the most plays from scrimmage on offense and allowed the least plays on defense while ranking 3rd in the NFL in time of possession.  Over the last four years, the Patriots have shown a trend of holding the ball longer on offense.  This can be seen in the table below.

Comparing 2008 to 2005, the Patriots allowed 77 fewer plays from scrimmage on defense, or 4.8 fewer plays per game, which is approximately one less drive for the opposition because the offense held the ball for long drives.  (Denver allowed 990 plays from scrimmage on D last year).  The average game has about 10 possessions per team.  A low-average defense, i.e. the Dallas Cowboys, allowed 22.8 points per game last year (ranked 20th in the NFL).  This is 2.28 points per drive.  Reducing the number of drives per game by 1 would have put the Cowboys at 20.52 points per game (ranked 12th in the NFL).

Over the entire 2008 season, the Patriots had 159 drives on offense, not including drives that ran out the clock at the end of the half or game.  The average drive was 7 plays, went 37 yards and lasted 3 minutes 17 seconds.  Out of these 159 drives, 42.2% resulted in a score, 30.8% resulted in a punt and 13.8% resulted in a turnover (this included turnovers on downs in addition to interceptions and fumbles).  Over the season, 15.7%, or about 1 out of every 6 drives resulted in a 3-and-out.  I expect similar numbers for the Broncos offense this year.

Below is the drive chart from the NE @ IND game last year on November 2nd.  These are the kind of drives that excite me about this year for the Broncos.  After marching down the field for 13 and 15 play drives that last about 1/2 of a quarter, the defense will be rested and ready to get the ball back for the offense.  Hopefully, these kinds of drives will result in TDs instead of FGs, but either is better than a red zone turnover.

For those of you who don't remember the high flying 2008 Denver Broncos offense, here is the drive chart for the game against New England in week 7.  Out of the 11 drives the broncos had during the game, 9 were 6 plays or less.  Remember that the average drive over the entire season for NE was 7 plays for 37 yards and 3 minutes 17 seconds.  For each of these 9 possessions, the offense either put the defense in horrible spot or gave them very little time to rest.

Even in the games where the offense played well, the defense was still put in a bad spot or left little time rest.  Here is the drive chart for the game in week 2 against New Orleans.  The offense had some very good drives in this game, but they were all quick.  I will never complain about a 12 play 80 yard drive for a TD, but this year they will take 8 or 9 minutes instead of 4 or 5.

I see similar characteristics in the 2009 Denver Broncos to the 2008 New England Patriots.  We have a new QB that many people are not sure about, an amazing possession receiver in Eddie Royal and a monster deep threat receiver in Brandon Marshall.  Denveralso has a top-tier offensive line, great group of TEs and a set of stud RBs.  The defense is not amazing, but greatly improved from last year.  I think they can easily be in the top 15 in scoring defense by staying fresh on the sidelines while the offense controls the ball.  Rotating players on the D-line during the game will only help the defense play better later in the game. (21 point leads will be safe).  The New England Patriots were 11-5 last year, and I don't see why the Denver Broncos can't be this year.