SB Nation User Blog: Dirk Hoag

Weekend notes: the AHL coming to OKC?

Dirk Hoag — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 13:51:58 -0000

I've just got a few items for you this morning, since we have an afternoon game on tap in Calgary (3:00 p.m. Central time). The preview is on the way.

After the jump, we have a possible explanation as to why Ryan Jones has taken so long to get rolling this season, word of a new AHL team possibly coming to another Sunbelt city, and a set of hockey player commercials that you aren't likely to see any time soon...

Predators News

Forbes does not think too highly of Predators fans - Nashville Predators Examiner
Jim Diamond takes Forbes to task for another or their link-bait "Best and Worst" articles.

Predators forward rewards team's patience - The Tennessean
John Glennon writes that a lost summer may have contributed to Ryan Jones' slow start this season.

Around the NHL

Can Habs' Markov Be Expected To Be The Team's Miracle Man - Habs Eyes On The Prize
Now that all their centennial celebrations are over, Montreal fans are stuck with a lousy hockey team. Can Andrei Markov fix that?

A Closer Look at Thrashers Shot Deficit - Bird Watchers Anonymous
An unusual trend is at play in Atlanta...

An Interview with Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett - The Copper & Blue
SB Nation's Edmonton blog discusses the potential for a new AHL affiliate for the Oilers in Oklahoma City.

Lastly, a little video entertainment for you from the guys at Bloge Salming... notice any Pred parallels in there?

Minnesota Wild equipment truck burns in Scotiabank Place parking lot

Dirk Hoag — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 21:52:19 -0000

Minnesota Wild equipment truck burns in Scotiabank Place parking lot

A very strange story out of Ottawa today. The Minnesota Wild have lost all their equipment due to a truck fire this afternoon.

Can the Nashville Predators keep scoring like this?

Dirk Hoag — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:29:38 -0000

More photos » by Jay LaPrete - AP

Ryan Jones is riding a 4-game goal-scoring streak, but can the Nashville Predators maintain the offensive pace they've set over the last few weeks?

Browse more photos »

One of the most enjoyable aspects of the current 5-0-1 run that the Nashville Predators are on is an unexpected surge in goal-scoring, which is coming from all four of the forward lines. Ryan Jones is working a 4-game streak, Patric Hornqvist reached double-digits with two goals in Edmonton last night, and both Martin Erat and Steve Sullivan have achieved hat tricks in recent days. Even Jerred Smithson and Joel Ward scored as well.

After trouncing the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-4 at home Tuesday night, John Glennon started the post-game press conference by asking Barry Trotz if the team had transformed into an offensive dynamo. Trotz replied with a deadpan "No", for of course he doesn't want anybody to lose sight of the lunch-bucket mentality that is the hallmark of his coaching style.

But the question remains - how much of this current scoring trend is sustainable? Let's take a look...

The tool I'm going to use to dig into this question is called Shot Quality; the notion that each shot can be assigned a value between 0 and 1, which represents the chance that a shot of that type will result in a goal. The factors I'm using here are the distance from the net, the shot type (slap, wrist, backhand, etc.) and whether or not it is a rebound attempt.

For example, a wrist shot from between 10 and 20 feet out might have a 14% chance of resulting in a goal on a normal attempt, but if it's a rebound opportunity, that value jumps to 34%. If you sum up all the Shot Quality values for a given game, you get an Expected Goals figure, which reflects how many goals you should score based on average goaltending.

I'm also using only Even Strength play here, setting special teams aside for the moment.

Since 80% or so of an NHL game is spent at Even Strength, my question here is how many goals the Preds should be scoring, and how the bounces of any given game have worked out.

The graph below shows the actual Even Strength goals scored per game (in red), and the Expected Goals (in blue). The game numbers below the horizontal axis are the game ID's from NHL.com. As an example, last night in Edmonton the Preds scored 5 goals at Even Strength, but based on the total of Shot Quality, they should only have Expected to score 2.25.

So what does this tell us?

Preds finally getting a break

The first thing to note is that the last 9 games (starting with a 5-4 overtime loss at Minnesota) are the first stretch that has seen the Actual Goals exceed the Expected Goals for any length of time, with a difference of +14.33 total goals; in other words, the bounces are finally going their way. That makes up for the first 22 games of the season, which saw the Preds score 14.5 goals less than Expected. In the 35 games to date, they've scored 1.91 goals less than Expected at Even Strength, which isn't a significant deviation for the overall total.

Basically, this hot streak lately has balanced out some snake-bitten games early on (recall the 1-0 loss to Buffalo, for example). This tells us that we shouldn't bank on the guys earning Frosties for the fans again any time soon, as a good chunk of this recent production is simply a matter of luck.

These aren't last season's Predators

The good news, however, is that this team is generating scoring opportunities at a decent pace, and if the goaltending and team defense hold up, the Predators should be able to keep up an above-average Goals For/Against performance.

To date this season, the Preds are generating 2.11 Expected Goals per Game at Even Strength, good for 7th in the NHL. In 2008-9, that figure was just 1.83, which ranked 22nd. Thanks in large part to the return of Steve Sullivan and production outside the Top Six by guys like Hornqvist and Jones, the Preds are a significantly better offensive team this time around.

Caveats

Just to repeat, I'm looking only at Even Strength activity here; special teams warrant their own analysis, which will await another day. Also, the Shot Quality model I'm using is relatively crude compared to the latest tweaks discussed over at HockeyAnalytics.com (PDF). I'm just starting to get this stuff into database form where I can do this kind of analysis, and hope to flesh it out more thoroughly as the season progresses.

That said, this provides a more nuanced view of offensive performance than merely looking at shot totals.

Metro Sports Authority appoints financial liaison to work with the Nashville Predators

Dirk Hoag — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:39:56 -0000

The Tennessean reports that Nashville's Metro Sports Authority has appointed one of its members, former Vanderbilt University CFO Lauren Brisky, to act as liaison for the board relative to the financial interest that the city has in the Nashville Predators.

To me, this would seem to be a positive step towards improving the relationship between the Predators and Metro. The initial choice for the role, board member Rusty Lawrence, has often seemed more interested in shaking down the Preds when given the chance, and his public statements wondering about the stability of the team, based on a series of newspaper headlines, were simply reckless.

Since the Predators adjusted Senior VP Gerry Helper's role to act as the team's liaison with city government, hopefully he and Ms. Brisky can work directly with one another to both anticipate and alleviate concerns on both sides.

In short, the city of Nashville has a legitimate financial interest to protect and monitor, and Ms. Brisky sounds well-qualified to oversee it, far more so than "Rusty".

UPDATE 2:

A natural question for observers to ask is, why is Metro concerned about the team going bankrupt?

This issue dates back to the renegotiated arena lease that was signed between the local ownership group and the city in 2008. Included in it was a requirement that the team owners had to submit yearly, certified statements attesting that their net worth met levels proportional to their share of the team, so that the city would have some financial recourse if the team went bankrupt, i.e. there would be some money to go after to recover the city's investment.

The owners have complied with this request, but the Sports Authority realized after the fact that part of each owner's net worth is their stake in the team. In other words, if the team did go under, would the owners' net worth go down the toilet too? In that case, the guarantee wouldn't be worth very much, would it?

This current endeavor appears to be geared towards providing some other avenue of assurance to the city that the team, and/or the owners, can back up the financial promises that have been made by each side. In essence, it's making up for a massive oversight on the city's part in crafting the guarantee requirement.

We do know that at least one member of the team seems to be doing OK; Herb Fritch, CEO of Healthspring, holds 3.78 million shares of the business as of a few days ago. Those shares bounced off lows early this year, and are currently valued at $65 million.

UPDATE: WPLN's report on this story seems to indicate that indeed this might lead to a more professional way of providing oversight:

Sports Authority member Lauren Brisky will review the Predators’ finances in private and report back to the board in January. She’s the former CFO of Vanderbilt University.

Board member Ralph Perrey says it seems like a good idea to avoid open meetings.

“When we speculate in public, that becomes news, not just here but in every NHL city.”

For her part, Brisky refused to answer questions after the meeting.

NHL data centers serve up HD video, data for fans

Dirk Hoag — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:15:15 -0000

NHL data centers serve up HD video, data for fans

SearchDataCenter.com has a great discussion on the technology that powers the NHL's online business, with the league's CTO Peter DelGiacco. I'm happy to see they've got some AS/400's in there; Pete, I'm an old COBOL/RPG hack, so if you need a hand with those AS/400's, give me a call!

Anatomy of a Goal: Grit and Driving to the Net

Dirk Hoag — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:07:31 -0000

Anatomy of a Goal: Grit and Driving to the Net

A great diagram of last night's opening goal by the Preds. The bottom line? At the critical moment, four Edmonton defenders were all paying attention to Wade Belak as he took a backhand shot from along the goal line, rather than watch out for Ryan Jones and Nick Spaling who were swooping in for a rebound.

Friday's news: Panic in Detroit, party time in Nashville

Dirk Hoag — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 15:38:00 -0000

I'm having a hard time trying to determine which is more amazing; the Nashville Predators' recent run of 18-5-2 over the last 25 games, or the fact that so many other teams are keeping up a similar pace. In their last 10 games, for example, the Phoenix Coyotes are 8-1-1 and the Los Angeles Kings are 7-2-1.

The Detroit Red Wings are 7-2-1 in their last 10 as well, but another serious injury has fans wondering how long they can keep rolling...

Predators News

Preds On The Glass: The Wild, Wild West and More
Buddy's morning update points out how insanely tight the Western Conference standings are up top.

Nashville Predators : Preds at Oilers 12.17.09 REVENGE!
Rebecca (@TigerPredsChick on Twitter) shares her take on last night's game in Edmonton, a fitting response to the 6-1 drubbing the Oilers put on the Preds early in the season.

The View from 111: Predators With a Slick Win over the Oilers
Mark likes the way the Preds rebounded from a figurative punch in the mouth last night from Edmonton.

These Guys May Actually Be… Good. Preds Win 6-3 In Edmonton - Brandon Felder
Drink the Kool-Aid, Brandon... this is a playoff-caliber team... there you go!

What The Puck: 12/17/09 - Nashville at Edmonton: W 6-3
Rachel wonders if we're seeing the second coming of Scott Hartnell with the Preds...

Postgame ponderings - Inside Predators
John Glennon watched this one from home just like the rest of us, and offers a buffet of thoughts on what's going well and what's not with the Preds.

Backchecking With ... Ryan Suter -- NHL FanHouse
A light-hearted interview with the Preds defenseman.

Switzerland: A medal would be a miracle - NHL.com
Risto Pakarinen's preview of the Swiss Olympic team includes Nashville's 2nd-round draft pick from 2008, Roman Josi, as a pivotal player.

Around the NHL

The Triple Deke: Game #34 -- Red Wings vs. Lightning
Reaction from the Red Wing faithful to the news that Henrik Zetterberg left last night's game after a big hit from Tampa's Mattias Ohlund: "Are you serious? Are you really serious with this? Zetterberg? Henrik Zetterberg? No. There's no way."

Zetterberg Out At Least Two Weeks - Sporting News
Craig Custance reports that the star Red Wing has a separated shoulder, and will miss at least two weeks. Sometimes these injuries can linger, however, so we'll have to see how it goes once he returns.

The Apprenticeship of Sam Gagner and the Oilers' other young struggling centres - Cult of Hockey
David Staples writes how the Preds exposed a weakness down the middle for Edmonton.

Concussions and Reggie Fleming - From The Rink
Scary stuff was reported in the Globe & Mail yesterday, as researchers found brain damage in a retired NHL'er that has been linked to the NFL as well, pointing to the potential for long-term, life-changing damage.

Sharks Considering Euro Trip - Fear The Fin
Should the Sharks participate in next season's opening games in Europe? Mr. Plank breaks down how that extra travel has affected previous participants.

Coyotes Captain Shane Doan Plays 1000th Game | Hockey From the Cheap Seats
Kudos to the one of the most widely respected players in the NHL. Phoenix is lucky to have him.

Surprise, Surpise, Surprise - Mile High Hockey
Can the unexpected Avalanche continue their improbable run?

Why David Koci deserved a suspension – and some sympathy | All Things Avs
Adrian Dater makes what is ultimately an unconvincing argument that David Koci, who escaped suspension for his hit on Washington's Mike Green, is caught betwixt ambivalence on the NHL's part in terms of on-ice violence.

Fifth Straight Habs Loss Colours 2009-10 Chemistry Experiment A Bust - Habs Eyes On The Prize
Despite lots of summer activity on the free agent market, the Montreal Canadiens have been a complete flop this season. Should they be a cautionary tale for those who beg for David Poile to go shopping with a blank check each July 1?

Would You Trade For Michael Nylander? - Hockey Or Die!
While the Nashville answer to this question would certainly be "No", it might get interesting if Washington put the Swedish center through recall waivers. Would it be worth picking up an offensively-gifted center if his $4.875 million cap hit were split 50/50 with the Capitals?

Big Ten Net to Air Pre- and Post-Game Hockey Shows, with… Adam Burish? " Puck The Media
Who knew that you could catch college hockey on the Big Ten Network? Awesome!

Players of the Decade - Behind The Net
You'll be interested to find a former Nashville Predator atop the list of Games Played over the course of the decade.

Lastly, here's a look at that Ohlund hit on Zetterberg. It's a completely clean shot, but a bit surprising to see Zetterberg caught flush:

Predators bounce back to beat Edmonton 6-3

Dirk Hoag — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 04:18:43 -0000

More photos » by John Ulan - AP

Nashville Predators' Jerred Smithson, right, celebrates with David Legwand after scoring on the Edmonton Oilers during the third period.

Browse more photos »

The oft-cited mantra of NHL coaches is that their teams have to play 60 good minutes of hockey to win on any given night.

Tonight in Edmonton, the Nashville Predators only played 55 good minutes, but fortunately for them it was the final 55 minutes, as they came back from an early 2-0 deficit to beat the Edmonton Oilers 6-3. The win takes the Preds to 5-0-1 in their last six games.

Follow after the jump for video highlights, the recap, and advanced even-strength statistics...

Things looked grim when the Oilers scored twice in the first 5:01, making the Preds look disheveled and sluggish. Head coach Barry Trotz called a timeout, pulled Pekka Rinne out of the net in favor of Dan Ellis (more a motivational move than an indictment of Rinne's play), and hoped for the best.

And the best is exactly what Trotz got.

First, it was Ryan Jones getting Nashville on the board, thanks to an unlikely setup by Wade Belak, whose hard work and persistence on the puck led to a rebound chance that Jones buried to extend his goal-scoring streak to four games. Next, a typically workmanlike shift by the shutdown line led to a Joel Ward goal, and the game was tied.

Fans watching at home barely had time to hoist their drinks in celebration before Marcel Goc scored off a crossing pass from J.P. Dumont to put the Preds up 3-2 late in the 1st period. Just like that, what looked like an excuse to turn the TV off and head to bed became cause for firing up a pot of coffee and settling in for a classic late-night Alberta thriller.

Having fallen behind, however, the Oilers didn't buckle. Their infamous team speed presented a constant threat, and skilled forwards like Robert Nilsson and Gilbert Brule gave the Preds' defense fits at times. After a nifty tic-tac-toe passing play between J.P. Dumont and Jason Arnott ended up with a Patric Hornqvist goal midway through the second to make it 4-2, Nilsson put on his second display of speed, bursting through the defense to pull the Oilers to within a goal at 4-3.

Often, the Preds had to settle in to packing the slot defensively as Edmonton kept bringing pressure, but they were able to keep most shots from getting the net (in the second period, each team only fired 6 on goal). Nashville got a bit of breathing room in the waning seconds as Hornqvist got his second goal of the night, tipping a long slapshot on the power play from Ryan Suter to give the Predators a 5-3 lead heading into the third.

The final period was a classic example of a team hanging on for victory; the Oilers outshot the Preds 10-5, including a couple especially dangerous chances. In the end, however, Jerred Smithson buried a lead pass by Legwand to make the final score 6-3, just seconds after getting denied an empty-netter because the play was offside.

Dan Ellis ended up with 21 saves on 22 Oiler shots, and Hornqvist led the Nashville scorers with two goals and an assist. J.P. Dumont, David Legwand, and Ryan Suter each had two assists.

It was hardly a perfect game by the Preds, considering the sluggish start and 5 total penalties, including a Too Many Men call which typically drives coaches nuts. The penalty killers also got lit up twice, on the initial goal of the game and then later in the second period while trying to defend a two-goal lead. In the end, however, persistent work by the entire group led to a huge comeback victory over an Oiler squad that had won 5 straight before Tuesday night.

And what about this offense? After having scored 5, 7, and now 6 goals in the last 3 games, the Preds now sport a Goals per Game figure of 2.77, good enough for 16th in the NHL. Last two seasons, they've been mired in 24th.

From here, the Predators head to Calgary for a Saturday afternoon (3:00 Central) start against the Flames, before moving on to Vancouver on Tuesday to wrap up the western Canada swing. Their next home game is Saturday night, December 26 vs. Chicago.

For discounted tickets to any Nashville Predators home game, you can follow this link and use the special offer code "PREDS".

Looking at the advanced stats, it's a bit remarkable that the top line of Sullivan-Arnott-Erat actually shut down the Oilers, only allowing two shots on goal at even strength in roughly 15 minutes of ice time, and the Ward-Legwand-Smithson line tipped the ice in their favor for most of the night.. Rookie Nick Spaling had what appears to be a rough game, but it should be noted that 4th-liners often come out on the poor end of these metrics. His defensive play in particular was often helpful in holding onto the Nashville lead.

Even Strength		Individual Totals					Team Totals While Player Is On Ice
Player	Pos	EV TOI	Shots	Shts Blkd	Missed Shts	Blocks	SOG For	SOG Ag	SOG +/-	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
Martin Erat	R	15:08	2	0	1	2	8	1	7	13	8	5
Jason Arnott	C	14:58	1	0	0	0	8	2	6	13	9	4
Steve Sullivan	L	14:55	1	1	1	1	8	2	6	13	9	4
David Legwand	C	13:53	2	2	0	0	9	7	2	19	12	7
Jerred Smithson	R	13:30	0	1	0	0	9	6	3	18	8	10
Joel Ward	R	12:50	2	1	0	0	7	6	1	16	9	7
Marcel Goc	C	13:37	1	0	0	0	5	6	-1	13	13	0
Patric Hornqvist	R	13:32	1	0	3	0	6	6	0	15	13	2
J P Dumont	R	13:25	0	0	0	1	6	7	-1	15	16	-1
Wade Belak	R	5:43	2	0	0	1	3	4	-1	4	6	-2
Nick Spaling	C	6:54	0	0	0	0	3	5	-2	4	9	-5
Ryan Jones	L	6:20	0	0	0	0	3	2	1	4	5	-1
Shea Weber	D	17:09	1	0	1	1	9	5	4	17	12	5
Ryan Suter	D	17:45	0	1	0	1	10	5	5	18	13	5
Dan Hamhuis	D	17:26	3	1	4	0	9	6	3	18	15	3
Kevin Klein	D	16:28	1	2	0	1	8	7	1	17	15	2
Cody Franson	D	12:07	1	1	1	0	7	5	2	14	10	4
Francis Bouillon	D	15:31	2	2	1	0	7	8	-1	14	13	1

Poll

Who is your Predator of the Game?

Dan Ellis, 21 saves on 22 shots

14 votes

Patric Hornqvist, 2 goals, 1 assist

72 votes

Ryan Jones, 4 game goal-scoring streak

12 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

Resolution coming between the Nashville Predators and the Sommet Group?

Dirk Hoag — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 21:22:13 -0000

This afternoon George Plaster, the sports director at 104.5's "Sports Zone" in Nashville broke some news about the dispute between the Nashville Predators and the Sommet Group over arena naming rights fees. Supposedly, an announcement should be forthcoming in the next day or two that an agreement has been reached and the arena will remain as "the Sommet Center."

Three weeks ago, the team filed suit over the lack of payment by the Sommet Group for arena naming rights to the Sommet Center, and the Sommet Group fired back by complaining that the Preds hadn't given their subsidiary companies enough of their business, specifically the purchase of thousands of t-shirts that the team has been giving away this season.

Obviously, putting this incident in the rear-view mirror is in the best interests of all parties involved. We return you now to your pre-game festivities....

UPDATE: J.R. Lind at the Nashville Post gets a comment from Preds' senior VP Gerry Helper as saying the two sides are talking, but have nothing to report right now. Obviously, we'll check back on this in a couple days...

Hordichuk’s Expiration Date Has Arrived

Dirk Hoag — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 18:02:18 -0000

Hordichuk’s Expiration Date Has Arrived

It's interesting to see a take on Darcy Hordichuk in Vancouver that's similar to what I've been saying about Wade Belak for the Preds. Are enforcers around the league being kept under wraps?