As speculation continues to swirl over the likely destinations of superstar free-agents-to-be Chris Paul and Dwight Howard, there have been quiet yet persistent murmurings indicating that the Chicago Bulls could in fact be a sleeper candidate to land Howard. As Bulls fans, we've been through this before. To loyal followers of the team, the names "Pau Gasol", "Kevin Garnett", and "Kobe Bryant" are likely to elicit a string of expletives followed by key phrases such as "overvaluing your own players" and "conspiracy".

But, as I see it, this time it's different. Dwight Howard is definitively the best center in the NBA, and will be for all of or close to the remainder of Derrick Rose's prime. This is not a "one last shot at a ring" Kevin Garnett or a Pau Gasol who proved that he is incapable of anchoring a championship-caliber team on his own. This is a shot to lock down, arguably, the best player in the NBA at the two most important positions on the court, in Rose and Howard. Even Jerry Reinsdorf can't deny the revenues and championships that such a pairing would bring.

Furthermore, the Magic can't afford to wait three years and make a deal with an old buddy (ahem! Danny Ainge), and the Bulls can offer one of - if not the best - packages of players while holding onto reigning MVP, Derrick Rose.

Looking at the other contenders for Dwight, only one team appears to be able to match the Bulls' offer. The Lakers' trio of old/injured/crazy big men can't possibly constitue the type of long-term building blocks the Magic are looking for. Indeed only their LA counterparts, the Clippers, can offer anything close to the likely Bulls package, which would center around Noah, Taj, and Deng, accompanied by some combination of the Bobcats' pick, Mirotic, and our slew of bench mob role players.

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Today I came across this video on ESPN in which Colin Cowherd uses Glen Beckian logic (minus the chalkboard) to make his case for LeBron James over Derrick Rose as the league MVP.  Below, I have done my best to return the favor by exposing Cowherd's own twisted logic and ill-researched propositions.

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As a Chicago sports fan, I often find myself comparing the plights of my two favorite teams: the Bulls and the Bears.  Over the past few years, the successes and failures of each team have actually been fairly well aligned.  Back in 2007, the Bulls made it to second round of the playoffs, and then fell flat on their faces under the pressure of lofty expectations in 2008.  They came back to post two mediocre seasons in 2009 and 2010 while rebuilding the roster, then signed a bunch of free agents and now seem poised to break through in 2011.  The Bears recent seasons offer a nearly identical storyline.  They lost in the Superbowl in 2006, before completely falling off the tracks in 2007 with nearly the same roster.  They were middling in 2008 and 2009, signed a bunch of free agents in the off season, and came back fairly dominant in 2010 with a new and improved roster.

But enough about team comparisons, I'm more interested in the players.

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I know, this plan has numerous flaws and pitfalls, yet, it might just work.

The Bulls big man depth is down to just Boozer (undersized PF, let along C), Taj (likewise undersized, and under-muscled), Asik (raw, foul prone, and skinny), Kurt Thomas (over-the-hill), and Deng (ok as a PF, but still doesn't solve our C problems).  Let's face it, we're likely to see some small ball lineups in the next 8-10 weeks while Noah recovers, and even then, we lack front court depth.   

Given that small ball is likely to be the "poison" of our choosing anyway - and we don't want to wear out Boozer and Deng this early in the season - why not get another small ball center with tons of potential (and a rookie contract) to fill in while Noah's out?  Who am I talking about?  The once-promising, but now utterly forgotten Anthony Randolph!

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I was trying to be optimistic, but alas, the Magic will match the Bulls' offer sheet to J.J. Redick, leaving the Bulls with a serious void at shooting guard, and less than ideal free agent candidates to fill said void.  So what next?

While Kyle Korver isn't a bad piece, he's not a starter.  Neither is Ronnie Brewer, Roger Mason, or Eddie House.  If the Bulls hope to contend with Miami, Orlando, and the Lakers, it will require a legitimate starting two guard capable of - at a minimum - knocking down threes and playing solid defense.  With Redick off the market, these attributes simply don't exist in any of the remaining free agents.  Therefore, I'd target the following three players via trade, who not only possess the attributes mentioned above, but also might conceivably be available at some point between now and the trade deadline: Courtney Lee, O.J. Mayo, and Rudy Fernandez. 

While the chances of acquiring one of these players is admittedly small, each plays on a team containing a glut of guards (ahh, the good old days!), a perilous financial situation, or both, and might therefore be viewed as reasonable trade targets.

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With only 25 games remaining this season, I figured it’s about time to go game-by-game through the remaining schedule in an attempt to determine what the Bulls’ final record will look like.  I plan on updating this fanpost after each game with actual results, and potentially changing some predictions if there are any fundamental changes to the Bulls or opponents as a result of injuries, signings, etc. 

Below is the Bulls’ remaining schedule.  Next to each game I have marked my prediction (W or L) as well as my confidence level in that prediction (1-10).  I have tried not to be too radical in my predictions; they are largely based upon record and basic matchups.  If I feel as though an explanation is necessary, I will include a short justification.  Feel free to tear me apart and make your own predictions as well.

In looking at the remaining schedule, it becomes immediately apparent that the Bulls still have some work to do.  There is a four game road trip against +500 teams in mid March.  Then, April is just flat out scary, as the Bulls will face their closest competition for playoff spots and playoff positioning (Milwaukee, Toronto, and Charlotte twice), as well as Cleveland and Boston.  Perhaps the only pushover teams the Bulls play in April are Washington and New Jersey, but as we all know, the Bulls are more than capable of dropping these games as well.

So without further ado…

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Hollinger's Fading Stars article in today's Daily Dime made me think a lot about the bulls over the years, and what they should be aiming for going forward.  

I think that the Boston Celtics provide a cautionary tale about trading away all of your long-term chips for a chance at a championship. As Bulls fans, we've had to put up with a lot of bullshit over the past 10 years.  Hell, after the dynasty years I didn't even pay any attention to the team until Deng and Gordon's rookie years, when the Bulls actually started to resemble a basketball team again.  But since then, I have lived through the ups and downs of our team, and had a smile on my face through at least 75% of it.  

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Great win last night.  The team's current play is leading me to wonder what the best plan should be going forward to balance cap space and talent.  Even with the addition of Devin Brown, trading away Kirk or Salmons for expiring contracts is likely to lead to a reduction in talent, and in turn, the prospects for a playoff birth are significantly reduced as well.  The benefits of last year's epic playoff series are not difficult to spot.  It forced the young Bulls to grow up.  Rose - once over his early-season injury - has been lighting it up, and unafraid to take on late-game leadership.  And then there's Noah, who after turning it on in the playoffs, has been an absolute beast this year - foot injuries not withstanding.

While playoff seeding is unlikely to be a major factor - Cleveland, Boston, Atlanta, and Orlando are all quite formidable, and the Bulls won't be any higher than 5 seed - some additional playoff experience would be a serious boon to the Bulls young players, as well for free agent marketing efforts.  Also, with 40 regular season games still remaining, you never know if the Bulls might find themselves in an another auspicious matchup, like last year's KG-less Celtics.

Plain and simple though: the Bulls need to make the playoffs.  On the other hand, going into the summer without the space to sign a max free agent nullifies the "sacrifice" the team took on this year by not resigning Ben Gordon or any of the other 2009 free agents (way to go Detroit, really made out big with Charlie "ET" Villanueva). 

There are really only two options that management has going forward: 

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Someone on "Ask Sam" proposed an interesting Tyrus trade involving Golden State.  Here are two variations that would work:

Trade #1: Tyrus and Salmons for Anthony Randolph and Stephen Jackson

Trade #2: Tyrus and Hinrich for Randolph, Jackson, and Speedy Claxton (for salary matching purposes)

There are definitely some problems with both scenarios - not the least of which is Tyrus' injury - but given Don Nelson and the Warrior's general dysfunction, it could have some legs.

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With everyone speculating about what The Org will be able to accomplish this summer with regard to free agents, Tyrus' extension, etc., I'd be interested to know the answer to this question:

Let's say (hypothetically) that the Bulls are able to create enough cap space to sign a max free agent without moving Tyrus or renouncing his rights, and the first thing they do this summer is sign Wade.  Obviously this assumes that they have been able to create enough cap space around Tyrus' cap hold to sign Wade (probably not possible, but let's assume it is for now).  Once the ink is dry on Wade's contract, can they then go ahead and sign Tyrus to a contract greater than his cap hold, thereby going above the cap due to the fact that the Bulls still own Tyrus' rights (and you're allowed to go above the cap to resign your own players)?

If this is legit, then this only works in that order: sign Wade first (so that total payroll is under the cap), then sign Tyrus (and legally go above the cap).

In reality, this is probably a moot point, as Tyrus' cap hold is likely to be greater than he is worth anyway, and the Bulls are unlikely to make the moves necessary to free up max FA cap space around his cap hold.  However, if Tyrus has an underwhelming or injury plagued year - or the market for his services is quiet - maybe the bulls could sign him to a highly discounted deal (well below his cap hold), and still have room for Wade/Bosh/Johnson.  In this scenario though, I think we're more likely to see Taj Gibson as starting PF rather than resigning Tyrus the rabble rousing trouble maker.

With wins against three of the five top teams in the league, and losses against three of the five worst teams in the league, many of us don't know what to make of the Bulls this year.  Unpredictable is an understatement.  It seems as though, lately, we've been winning against all of our "top tier" opponents, and losing against our "easy" opponents.  Just how does this trend play out across the full season? 

What follows are calculations of our record in various situations across the season to date:

Overall Record: .456

Home Record: .656

Away Record: .278

Overtime Record: .250

Close Games (Absolute Margin <= 10): .432

Blowouts (Absolute Margin > 10): .484

Against Teams w/ Winning Record (including .500 teams): .359

Against Teams w/ Losing Record: .586

At Home Against Winning Teams: .556

At Home Against Losing Teams: .786

Away Against Winning Teams: .190

Away Against Losing Teams: .400

This isn't rocket science, and for the most part everything follows in line with expectations.  That said, it is astounding to me that the Bulls' record against winning teams at home is nearly THREE TIMES that of our away record against winning teams!!  Additionally, our record in close games is notably worse than non-close games (and my guess is that this differential should actually be higher as many of our "close wins" are actually blowouts in which we nearly relinquished the lead). 

If the average age of the team was 28, this would be extremely troubling, but we are one of the youngest (if not the youngest?) team in the league.  Therefore, it is not surprising that we are significantly better at home, and that we can't quite close out close games.  With better coaching (from Vinny or his potential replacement), more playing time for our young guys, and improved cohesion as the newly reorganized team learns to play together, I expect our record to significantly improve next year.  The good news is that we are most definitely getting it done at home.  Hopefully the away record will follow in due time.

Here's the million dollar question: What is wrong with the Bulls?

No real leader?
Identity issues?
No true all-star?
Lack of intensity and consistency?

If you ask me, all of these problems are directly related to coaching.  A real coach would find a way to create an identity, elevate leaders, hand Derrick Rose (our true all-star) the keys to the car, and foster an environment in which lack of intensity is not tolerated, thereby leading to...consistency!

True, we don't have a legit "Big Three" or a Kobe or LeBron upon whose back we can ride to the Finals, but we absolutely do have a playoff team.  Especially in the East!  Given the struggles and injury issues compromising so many teams in the East this year, there is no reason that this Bulls team shouldn't have been a 5 or 6 seed.

Ok.  Most of us here agree on this much, so I won't go into why benching D Rose in the 4th is a bad idea.  Here comes the financial component:

In a major market such as Chicago, a playoff appearance would net the Bulls significant additional income.  The odds of making the playoffs and potentially even advancing beyond the first round (this year or next) are markedly better with a competent coach.  As a rookie coach with no prior experience, VDN's contract is a small one.

So add it all up!  Firing VDN gives Chicago a much better shot at the playoffs, and therefore a shot at significant additional income that will likely exceed that of VDN's contract buyout as well as the difference between VDN's salary and the new coaches salary (which would likely be more than VDN's because he'd hopefully have enough experience to demand more).

Additionally, playoff experience and better coaching will allow Derrick Rose to progress faster, and might even elevate his ceiling further.  Given that these are his formative years, it is important to put him in a position to succeed, and not do anything to stunt his development.  There is a financial benefit associated with this as well, as the better D Rose becomes, the better the Bulls will be going forward, which in turn equals more revenue for the franchise whether it's playoff appearances, jersey sales, etc.  Would Cleveland be as profitable without LeBron?  I think not.  Same logic applies here.

What coach wouldn't love to get their hands on this team?

Derrick Rose
Ben Gordon (if he's back next year)
Loul Deng
Tyrus Thomas
Joakim Noah
John Salmons
Brad Miller
Kirk Hinrich
Tim Thomas

Pax did his job by cleaning up the roster and providing us with legitimate veterans.  Now it's time to get rid of the one remaining team cancer: VDN.

Ok.  Here are some givens:

1) Jerry Reinsdorf is a terrible owner.

2) Pax is a terrible GM, and will not pull off any trades of any consequence.

3) We have good players, but a terrible team.

So, in my estimation, here's the best we can hope for:

1) Pax fires VDN and hires someone who's actually...you know...a real coach.

2) Pax lets all of our expiring contracts walk.

3) We commit to youth and hope to get lucky in the 2010 lottery.

Here's what our team next year looks like:

Rose/Hinrich

Hinrich/Thabo

Deng/Noce

Thomas/Noce

Noah/Gray

Yes, it's a bleak outlook, but I just don't see it getting any better than this.  I'll be looking at box scores from now on and not wasting my time actually watching this so called team.

The fact of the matter is that the Bulls are in a very unique and difficult situation.  They have acquired a number of assets, almost all of whom are regressing, underperforming, not fitting in, or not living up to their potential.  Additionally, the team has two good but redundant players with long-term, and potentially overly expensive, contracts (Noce and Hinrich) and another “core” player whose future with the franchise is extremely uncertain (Gordon).  The one beacon of hope is a young rookie with limitless potential (Rose).  To say that the Bulls are at a crossroads would be a gross understatement.  Should they cash their chips in for another low level all star or two?  Should they get rid of long-term salary and sign one or two all star caliber players in 2009 or 2010 free agency?  Or should they try to develop what they have?  And the biggest question may be, are any of these options actually feasible, especially given the current ownership, GM, and coach?

I feel as though the best way to answer these questions is to go through the team player-by-player and attempt to realistically determine what the long-term plan for the franchise should be.  At the very least, this exercise gives me some hope that Paxson might not be completely inept.

Derrick Rose – Not much needs to be said here.  Surround him with a good group of guys and the sky’s the limit.

Luol Deng – See my point above about surrounding Derrick with a solid good group of guys.  Deng epitomizes this player archetype, and should be held onto unless the Bulls are presented with a can’t loose trade.  True, Deng is underperforming this year, and he has had some injury issues, but beyond truly being a good guy, he is extremely underutilized and misused in VDN’s “offense,” is very young at age 23, and started playing basketball later in life than most.  His ceiling is still very high.  Maybe he’s overpaid, but he’s still a great asset.

Tyrus Thomas – I am in favor of holding onto TT.  Like Rose and Deng, he is young and has a ridiculously high ceiling.  He has also been playing much better as of late, and with real coaching he might even be capable of making another significant jump upward (figuratively).  Additionally, like Rose and Deng, he is physically suited for his position, and might benefit significantly from the Rondo/Perkins effect if surrounded by a more competent and cohesive group of players.  That said, if TT is all that is separating the Bulls from acquiring an all-star via trade, he probably should not be withheld. 

Ben Gordon – Clearly the guy can score, and his defense is much improved.  I do worry somewhat about his personality (i.e. selfishness) as well as the Bulls’ ability to successfully negotiate a contract, though he might find that there’s not much money on the table this summer given the economy and other high quality FAs on the market.  If we can lock him up for a reasonable price, I guess we do it, otherwise, I wouldn’t be too upset to let him go or work out a sign and trade.

Kirk Hinrich – I love the guy, and I think he has a bright future in the NBA, but he deserves to be more than a backup.  I think the safest plan with Kirk is to keep him for the remainder of this season, and see how he and Derrick play together, and whether or not he is capable of playing the two guard.  At the very least, he’s good insurance for next year if BG walks, and quality PGs are always in demand.  He’ll always be tradable. 

Larry Hughes – I’ll keep it short and simple.  Bench him for the remainder of the season, or trade him for contracts that expire prior to 2010.  He doesn’t deserve to play for our team, but he could be a good trade chip next season as the 2010 bonanza approaches.

Andres Nocioni – Again, I like him a lot, but he doesn’t fit with our team right now, and probably has some trade value.  Maybe couple him with Larry Hughes and ship him out for serviceable expiring contracts.  If the Bulls can rid themselves of Noce, and bench/trade Hughes, then they clear the backcourt glut, and open up room at SF for…

Thabo Sefalosha – This guy deserves to play.  He has done well in limited minutes, and with his size and defensive abilities he could be a great role player off the bench.  He’s our younger, more athletic replacement for Noce.  Like with Thomas, if he’s a key piece of a trade for a legit all-star, then let him go, but otherwise, let’s see what he’s got.

Joakim Noah – Unless this guy starts hitting the gym, he’s useless.  It’s great that he’s 7 feet tall and athletic, but it gets us nothing unless he can run the court and muscle up with NBA centers.  I say get rid of him.  At best he’s a 6th man, but he may have some trade value. 

Aaron Gray – Under no circumstances is this guy anything but a backup center, but in my opinion, he’s a serviceable backup.  I wouldn’t mind keeping him for minimal $$.

Drew Gooden – I like the guy a lot.  I like his beard, his antics, and his offensive abilities.  Too bad he’s a terrible defender and doesn’t have much potential beyond his current level of play.  He’ll cost the Bulls too much to retain given the current makeup of the team.  Let him walk at the end of the year, or include him in a trade before the end of the season.

Omar Asik – I hope he’s good and finds a way to actually make it to the NBA.

Cedric Simons – Let him go. 

Michael Ruffin – Why did we sign this guy again?

Lindsey Hunter – With Hinrich right around the corner from his return, why did the Bulls decide to retain him and guarantee his salary???

In Conclusion: If we can move Noce this year, we should.  If we can put together a trade package for a legit all-star, we should.  If we can take part in a siginicant “shake up” trade, we should.  Otherwise, making moves for the sake of making moves is probably not prudent.  The next two years will be extremely telling.