# DoctorMyBrainHurts

• joined Feb 06, 2010
• last login Oct 11, 2013
• posts 21

### A Fan Of...

• NHL St. Louis Blues
• General Carolina Hurricanes

### Simulating Kovi

I put together a series of simulations to see what spread of shooting production we might expect to see from average players and how the variability in that production compares to what we might...

### Save Percentage On Ice/Off Ice

I opened another can of worms.   In an earlier post, Scott Reynolds pointed out the discrepancy between on ice save percentage and off ice save percentage for Smid, Fistric, Weaver, and Giordano. ...

### Defensive Contribution and QualComp/QualTeam

I think it makes sense to incorporate QualComp and QualTeam into DGVA.  It just doesn't make much difference. I had been pondering whether it helped to utilize QualComp and QualTeam in...

### Defensive Contribution

Having thoroughly messed up goaltender performance metrics, I lay awake a while last night pondering what to do next. I thought, "I'm a contrarian. Nobody looks at defensive contribution. Let's...

### Replacement Level Goaltenders

Replacement goaltenders are not the same as threshold goaltenders. In baseball, VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player, is one metric used to assess the value of players. Keith Woolner, the...

### Comparing GGVT to GVA

For goaltenders, GGVT is the same as GVA. I've been looking at simulating goaltender performance and calculating GVA and GVT. Here, I look at actual GGVT compared to actual GVA and the...

### Simulating GGVT

In a previous post, I looked at simulating GVA.  Here I simulate goaltender performance and calculate the goaltender portion of GVT. In a previous post, I looked at simulating goaltender...

### Calculating GVT

Turns out it's harder than you think. In a previous post, I looked at simulating GVA. Up next, I plan to look at GVT. First, though, I needed to see if I can accurately calculate GVT. Tom...

### Simulation of GVA and the estimation error of GVA

Sunny Mehta recently suggested that the observed range of goaltender save percentages over the course of a single season could essentially be duplicated by an average goalie and random factors. ...

### Shootout Save Percentage

The final chapter. I finish my look at save percentages to shootout data.  Once again I calculated logits from the save percentages.  In my other analyses, I removed goalies with logits that were...

### Power Play Save Percentage

I expanded my look at save percentages to power play data. Once again I calculated logits from the save percentages. I removed goalies with logits that were infinity or undefined. Power play...

### Penalty Kill Save Percentage

I expanded my look at save percentages to penalty kill data. Once again I calculated logits from the save percentages. I removed goalies with logits that were infinity or undefined. Compared to...

### Beating Save Percentage to Death: The Theory Of Everything

The Big TOE. The big fella, the Lizard King. Godzilla. Goalie matters. Hasek was better than Fuhr. Who knew? However, it looks like goalie matters in a perverse sort of way. If you look at...

### Simulating Rink Bias

I ran some simulations to see if rink bias really matters. It does not seem to make much difference. Baseline Model Typical goalie with a save percentage of 0.920 facing 1500 shots in a...

### Beating save percentage to death: Teams

I used my Even Strength Save Data to look at the effect of Teams. There is not much there.   Using the dense data, I constructed the logits (ln(p/(1-p)) myself. I first corrected the...

### Beating save percentage to death: Logistic Regression.

I reran my Even Strength Save Data using logistic regression. The results again show a significant difference between goalies. First, I converted the data to sparse format (each line is a single...

### Beating save percentage to death: Simulation

Using a psuedo-random number generator, I simulated up to 5 seasons of goalie save data.  Results after the jump.   Each season has 30 goalies. In the first scenario, I specified that all 30...

### Beating Save Percentage to Death Part 3: Goaltenders

Do NHL goalies differ? A statistical look.

### Beating Save Percentage to Death Part 2: Year

I've looked at even strength save percentage for all goalies from 1997-2010. The data for 1997-1998 for special teams on the NHL.com web site has been fixed and I am now including it. In part 1 I...

### Beating Save Percentage to Death Part 1B: Young Goalies

The following goalies made their debut at 19 or 20, and had at least 3 years of data. The first four made their debut at 19, the remainder at 20.   Backstrom Dipietro Fleury Ouellet Auld E...

### Beating Save Percentage to Death Part 1: Age

I've looked at even strength save percentage for all goalies from 1998-2010. The data for 1997-1998 for special teams on the NHL.com web site is flawed, so I have omitted it. Unweighted A first...

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