
Doghouse
Apr 03, 2008 Jan 30, 2012 553 25235
Doghouse maintains his own blog about non-sports stuff, like parallel parking, and he has new posts every year. He lives down the street from the Nats and thinks they should install a birdbath on top of the Red Loft--Screech is looking a little grimy lately.
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Sunday Nats Stats: 2011 Pitcher Report Card
Just because I don’t seem to learn from experience, here is my pitcher report card for 2011. Pitchers are harder to grade "objectively." My jack-of-all-grades for position players, WAR, isn’t as cut-and-dried for pitchers (not that it’s cut-and-dried for position players...). W/L depends on the offense, ERA depends on the defense (and opposing offense), WPA is too context-dependent, FIP can’t explain John Lannan... In the end, I looked at a basket of stats for each pitcher and tried to judge where they ranked relative to the rest of the league.
More explanation of the grading scheme, detailed player-by-player discussion, and the consolidated report card after the jump. As always, data courtesy fangraphs and baseball-reference through the 2011 regular season.
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Washington Nationals 2011 Position Player Final Report Card
Well, apparently I'm a glutton for punishment. After giving the team a 'C-' overall for 2011, now it's time to see how your favorite player (or your favorite player to hate) rates on the merciless (and possibly arbitrary) Doghouse curve. Here's the summary report card:
| Wilson Ramos | A- |
| Ryan Zimmerman | B |
| Michael Morse | B |
| Danny Espinosa | B- |
| Rick Ankiel | B- |
| Jayson Werth | C+ |
| Jonny Gomes | C |
| Ivan Rodriguez | C |
| Roger Bernadina | C- |
| Laynce Nix | D+ |
| Ian Desmond | D+ |
| Jerry Hairston | D+ |
| Alex Cora | D |
| Adam LaRoche | D- |
| Brian Bixler | D- |
| Jesus Flores | F |
| Chris Marrero | F |
| Steve Lombardozzi | F |
| Matt Stairs | F |
An explanation of the grading scheme and details for each player after the jump. Stats courtesy baseball-reference and fangraphs, through the 2011 regular season.
Washington Nationals: 2011 Final Team Report Card.
After giving everyone a few weeks off from the end of the regular season, it's time to unleash the notoriously unforgiving Doghouse Curve (it breaks right over your GPA). We all enjoyed the Nationals' great late-season run, as they knocked around the Phillies and Braves, beat up the Marlins, and came within a Doug Slaten relief appearance of posting their first winning record since coming to DC. With the season over, it's time to take an objective look back at 2011 and see how the Nats measured up as a team.
Overall: C-
The team finished 80-81, one game under .500. They were third in the NL East, 21.5 games out of first, 8.5 games behind the second-place Braves, and 8.5 games ahead of the last-place Marlins. They placed 8th overall in the NL, 9.5 games behind the wild-card-winning Cardinals. They were 0.2 runs/game worse than the average team when you account for the strength of their schedule (which was 0.1/runs game easier than average this season, interestingly enough). I tried to find a way to give the Nats a straight "C" on the season, but even with the third-place finish, they're under .500 and closer to the bottom of the division than the top. That's a "C-." That's held surprisingly steady over the course of the season, and it's also a full letter grade better than 2010 (D-), which was better than 2009 (F). The Nats have gone from failures to just below league average.
After the jump, grades for offense, starters, relievers, defense, and luck. Stats from the redoubtable fangraphs and baseball-reference. Put your own grades (or take vigorous exception to mine) in the comments!
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Game 161: When do pitchers and catchers report?
- Get the kid a win, fer frankssake: Stephen Strasburg (+35.6%) goes 6 innings with 10 Ks, no ER, and 2 walks
- NORMAL PANTS! Ian Desmond (+14.4%) hits a two-RBI single in the 5th for the lead (+13.9%).
- Predictable: Tyler Clippard (+9.0%) gets through a scoreless aeyeth on 7 pitches, while it only takes Drew Storen (+9.2%) a few more for a scoreless ninth.
- teh H3R0! Alex Cora gets a leadoff, pinch-hit triple in the aeyeth (+10.3%) and comes around to score.
Game 160: You just KNEW Slaten would blow it.
- Tough luck (again): John Lannan (+3.8%) is steady enough through 6 IP, giving up 2 ER with 4 Ks and 3 BBs, although he can only blame himself for giving up a tying run on a WP (-15.9%).
- Thirty-plus! Michael Morse (+1.2%) belts a game-tying solo shot in the 5th (+14.0%).
- Predictable: Doug Slaten (-36.2%) gets two outs into the ninth, almost giving up a game-losing dinger before... giving up a game-losing dinger (-46.4%).
- Sprinting = winning: Todd Coffey (+10.7%) works around a leadoff hit to keep the game tied in a scoreless inning of relief work.
Game 159: MAGIC PANTS!
- Needz moar d1ng3rz: Tommy Milone (-16.4%) only manages 4.1 IP with 3 ER on 4 Ks and 1 BB.
- To save the day: Craig Stammen (+13.5%) fans 3 over 1.2 innings of relief, although he allows the tying run on a wild pitch (-12.9%).
- Yes, sir, Captain Tight Pants: Ian Desmond (+40.5%) is 2-3 with a walk and a two-out, RBI double to tie it in the 4th (+12.6%), and a 9th-inning single to put two on (+12.9%).
- Should have sprinted: Todd Coffey (-24.9%) gives up the tying run (-21.6%) on an error by Jayson Werth (WPA punishes the pitcher, sorry).
- You sure you want to pitch to him here? Michael Morse (+58.2%) jacks a go-ahead, three-run bomb in the 9th (+71.0%).
Game 158: I told you they'd win 78!
Today's game story: Nats win home finale 3-0.
- Escape artist: Ross Detwiler (+35.6%) escapes bases-loaded and runner-on-third jams galore, fanning four and walking two over the course of 6 scoreless innings.
- Two-out rally: Wilson Ramos (+7.4%) scores the winning tally early with a solo shot in the fourth (+14.4%).
- TWO-OUT RALLY! Michael Morse (+15.5%) adds an exclamation point with a no-doubt, two-run blast in the 7th (+16.3%).
- ZAP! Henry Rodriguez (+9.3%) strikes out the side in a perfect inning of relief.
Game 157: Wang is right
Today's game story: CMW's comeback season ends w/Nats win.
- Can he bunt? Chien-Ming Wang (+24.4% pitching, +3.4% hitting) fans 4, walks none, and gives up only 1 ER over the course of 6 IP. He even singles in a run (his first major league hit, +5.4%).
- Steady: Ryan Zimmerman (+10.2%) is 2-4.
- Demonstrating something: Chris Marrero (+8.5%) singles in a run for the early lead (+10.4%), while Danny Espinosa (+8.3%) singles in two more to tack on (+9.8%).
- WPA doesn't give him credit for this: Ivan Rodriguez (-2.7%) guns down a runner to help defuse a runners-corners jam in the aeyeth (+8.1%).
Game 156: Remember when we swept the Fillies? Good times.
Tonight's game story: Strasburg struggles, Nats are terrible.
- Not messianic: Stephen Strasburg (-14.5%) gives up 2 ER (3 R) over 4 IP with only 3 Ks but no BBs.
- Trying: Wilson Ramos (+10.5%) is 2-4 with a pair of RBIs. Jayson Werth (3.1%) hits a solo shot in the aeyeth (+7.5%).
- Unhelpful: Ryan Zimmerman (-16.8%) is 1-5 with 4 LOB and a rally-killing GDP in the 3rd (-12.9%).
- Also unhelpful: Collin Balester (-13.0%) continues to make the case for DFA by giving up 2 BB, 0 K, and 3 ER while only recording 1 out.
Game 155: Nats complete sweep at Nats Park North.
- Staying strong: Brad Peacock (+28.5%) has 2 Ks and 2 BBs over 5.2 IP, but gets through it scoreless thanks to a lot of weakly-hit fly balls.
- CHOMP! Roger Bernadina (+14.9%) is 2-4 with two-out RBI's in the 3rd (+9.8%) and the aeyeth (+7.4%).
- If only we could find a leadoff hitter: Ian Desmond (+7.3%) is 2-4, "doubling" in a run for the early lead (+11.5%) and scoring twice, himself.
- Interesting: Tom Gorzelanny (+5.8%) gets a fly out to end the 6th, escaping a bases loaded-jam that he helped pitch himself into (-11.8%).
Game 154: John Lannan is a 10-game winner
- Coulda been worse: John Lannan (-10.3%) incurs the wrath of the BABIP gods to the tune of 8 singles in 2 innings, but he still manages to keep the damage to 3 ER over 5 IP, thanks to 3 Ks and only 1 BB.
- ¡VAMOS! Wilson Ramos (+29.2%) is 3-3 with a walk and a two-run shot for the early lead (+20.3%)
- Here to save the day: Craig Stammen (+19.3%) throws two scoreless innings in relief.
- Record-breaker: Danny Espinosa (+26.0%) gets his 21st bomb (a two-run, go-ahead shot for +30.4% WPA) and his 19th HBP.
- Ugly runs still count: Rick Ankiel (+1.0%) screws up a sac bunt, but an error on the play scores a run and puts runners 2nd/3rd (+10.5%).
Game 153: I'm going to stop complaining about Detwiler
- He showed me: Ross Detwiler (+41.8% pitching, +8.1% hitting) throws 7.1 innings scoreless against the "A" lineup, striking out 3 and walking 1. Rosswiler also had a big RBI single to extend the lead to 2 runs in the 6th (+12.9%).
- PWNAGE: Danny Espinosa (+18.2%) is 3-4 with a solo shot to get his third HR against the Filly starter this season (20th of the year) for the early lead (+11.1%)
- What, you need something else? Drew Storen (+3.9%) picks up his 40th save, although the WPA gods were not impressed.
Game 152: It's never easy
- Wasted quality: Tommy Milone (+35.0%) goes 6 IP, giving up neither a run nor a walk and fanning two.
- Bad bunt + bad call: Ian Desmond's (-8.8%) safety squeeze doesn't get quite far enough for the ump to notice that the catcher missed the tag (-13.2%).
- SHARK ATTAAAAAACK! Roger Bernadina (+28.1%) jacks a three-run shot for lead (+39.8%).
- FAIL relief is FAIL: Doug Slaten (-13.1%) puts on the first two batters he faces in the 7th without getting an out, then Tyler Clippard (-25.0%) coughs up the tying HR (-33.6%).
- CLUTCH (which still doesn't exist): Ryan Zimmerman (+36.8%) singles in the go-ahead run in the 10th (+36.8%).
- Just steady enough: Tom Gorzelanny (+13.4%) and Sean Burnett (+10.5%) allow some runners but keep it tied through 9, while Drew Storen (+19.4%) works around a leadoff double to save the win.
Game 151: Wang [barely] beats the sweep
- Just needs a little support: Chien-Ming Wang (+11.7%) goes 6.2 IP, giving up 3 ER with 5 Ks and no BBs.
- Ugly runs count, too: Danny Espinosa (+15.1%) singles in two runs on a misplay of his hit to center (+16.9%).
- Delightfully uninteresting: Tyler Clippard (+13.7%) gets four quick outs in relief, while Drew Storen (+15.6%) racks up the last three 1-2-3.
Game 150: We need a bigger boat.
- Wasted: Stephen Strasburg (+19.7%) pitches 6 innings, fanning 3, walking none, and giving up 1 ER.
- Rally Rhino: Wilson Ramos (+8.3%) jacks a solo shot to tie it in the 5th (+16.0%).
- No whammy: Henry Rodriguez (+8.5%) and Todd Coffey (+10.3%) keep it tied in the 7th and 8th.
- No whammy: Drew Storen (+13.2%) and Sean Burnett (+13.2%) keep it tied in the 9th and 10th.
- STOP! Collin Balester (-19.9%) makes it through the 11th and 12th clean, but gives up a two-run shot to put the Nats behind in the 13th (-42.2%).
- Rally time! Ian Desmond (+12.8%) reaches on error and takes 2nd to lead off the 11th (+17.4%).
- Rally FAIL: Michael Morse (-28.6%) GDPs to end the 11th (-32.1%).
Game 149: Back to FAIL
Tonight's game story: Nats lose, are terrible.
- FAIL pitching: John Lannan (-10.5%)
almosthas a QS, lasting56 innings, walking 3, striking out 1, and giving up an insurmountable 3 ER. - FAIL baserunning: Brian Bixler (-4.8%) blows his PR appearance by getting picked off to end a 7th-inning rally attempt, while Danny Espinosa (-9.1%) is out by a mile trying to stretch a single (-1.6%).
- FAIL hitting: Outside of Laynce Nix (+4.9%) and his 7th-inning single to put runners 1st/2nd (+8.3%), Nationals hitters are terrible to the tune of -48.3% WPA.
Quickie Nats Stats: Is Ankiel the Nats' BEST. CF. EVAR?
Bill Ladson argues that Rick Ankiel may be the best CF the Nats have ever had in their short history in DC, apparently on the strength of some recent (admittedly impressive) highlight reel plays. I appreciate a nice play as much as the next fan, but I'm also a little suspicious of argument by anecdote. Maybe other Nats' CFs have made great plays, too (remember J-Max robbing a HR?). Maybe Ankiel has trouble with routine plays. This sounds like a job for math!
I took a look at the advanced fielding stats, and there's a good case to be made that The Arm is right up there as a "Best Nat CF" candidate. In fact, it looks like Rick is about to quietly wrap up the best year of his career with the glove. There are also a few blasts from the past, and some disappointments. Stats (with explanations, of course) after the jump. Stats through games of 9/15/11 courtesy fangraphs.
Game 148: Swept into 3rd place!
- Coming along nicely: Tommy Milone (+29.5%) goes 5.2 IP with 1 ER on 4 Ks and 3 BBs.
- Not helping: Collin Balester (-9.3%) cashes in a runner he inherited from Milone.
- He fields pretty well, too: Rick Ankiel (+20.6%) is 1-2 with a walk and a big reached-on-error, which scored a run to break a scoreless tie in the 5th and put runners 2nd/3rd (+15.1%).
- Putting out the fire: Todd Coffey (+13.0%) gets a fly out to defuse a bases-loaded jam after Henry Rodriguez (-5.9%) walks 3 and can't get the last out in the 7th.
- Thriving with competition? Ian Desmond (+17.1%) is 5-6 with 3 RBIs.
Game 147: "[Franking] Ankiel OWNS Center!" --Mrs. Doghouse
- C'mon, shake your tail-feather: Brad Peacock (+26.2%) doesn't go yard, but he throws 5 shutout innings in spite of 3 BBs and only 2 Ks.
- He'd still really rather start: Tom Gorzelanny (+13.7%) throws 2 clean innings in relief.
- Two-out rally time! Michael Morse (7.8%) singles in a run for the lead in the 3rd (+13.4%), then Jayson Werth (+5.4%) singles in another one to tack on (+10.3%)--both with two outs.
- ANKIEL!! Rick Ankiel (-2.0%) doesn't actually get the WPA for his game-ending diving catch on a liner hooking and diving away from him, but the +8.6% it was worth didn't do the snag justice anyhow.
Game 146: STAMMEN! STAMMEN!! STAMMEN!!!
- Not too bad: Chien-Ming Wang (-4.2%) only lasts 5 IP, but only gives up 2 ER, while striking out 4 (!) and walking none.
- Kind of bad: Doug Slaten (-13.0%) records no outs and walks a batter in relief.
- Cleaner: Craig Stammen (+19.2% pitching, +4.1% hitting) defuses Slaten's disaster-in-the-making, getting 4 scoreless outs. He also singles to start a 7th-inning rally and comes around to score.
- Clutch: Ryan Zimmerman (+10.7%) singles in Stammen for the go-ahead run (+20.6%).
- Double-double: Rick Ankiel (+6.1%) doubles in a run to get the Nats on the board (+15.3%), then Michael Morse (+10.8%) doubles The Arm in to tie it (+18.4%). (Ankiel's great play at the plate doesn't show up to his credit in the WPA.)
- Way. Too. Interesting: Drew Storen (+17.5%) puts runners on the corners but gets a big strike out to end the game (+18.4%).
- Almost forgot: Sean Burnett (+12.9%) throws a clean aeyeth to preserve the one-run lead.
After the jump, C.B. Bucknor is bad at umpiring!
Game 145: Three more wins to third place
- One more out to quality: Ross Detwiler (-8.9%) gets through 5.2 IP scoreless, then walks two, gives up 2 ER, and comes out.
- Revenge of the scrubs: Steve Lombardozzi (+12.7%) singles in Brian Bixler (-21.7%) for the winning run (+18.9%).
- Playin' wiffleball: Jayson Werth (+10.4%) is 3-4 with a double. Wilson Ramos (+16.8%) is 2-4 with an RBI, and Rick Ankiel is 1-4 with an RBI (+17.8%).
- I'm running out of synonyms for "dependable": Tyler Clippard (+22.9%) throws two perfect innings in relief.
- Only slightly interesting: Drew Storen (+17.5%) walks one but doesn't allow any runs to get the save.
Game 144: WINnerific WIN Parade of WIN
- Shaky: Stephen Strasburg (+3.8%) gets blooped and works some long counts for only 3 IP, but gets 4 Ks and only gives up 1 ER.
- Okay, I'll call it a comeback: Danny Espinosa (+10.4%) leads the WPA parade today, going 2-4 with a pair of doubles, including one to left in the 2nd that set up the tying run (+9.7%).
- D1ng3r! Ian Desmond (+9.8%) also represents for the middle infield, going 3-5 with a 3rd-inning solo shot for the early lead (+12.0%).
- D1ng3r! D1ng3r! Rick Ankiel (+8.7%) goes back-to-back after Desi's jack (+9.9%), while Ryan Zimmerman (+7.8%) makes it back-to-back-to-back on the next at-bat (+7.2%).
- Gorzilla smash! Tom Gorzelanny (+9.4%) "picks his teammate up," throwing 3 clean innings in relief.
Game 143: FAILtastic FAIL parade of FAIL
Tonight's game story: FAIL.
- Making Maya look good: John Lannan (-35.6%) only lasts 2.1 innings, giving up 4 ER plus another 2 unearned on his own throwing error.
- Not bobble-worthy: Danny Espinosa (-7.3%) continues his crushing slump, going 0-4 with 3 Ks and 5 LOB.
- Lombo, call your agent: Ian Desmond (-5.5%) isn't much better, going 0-5 with 3 LOB.
- Present, but irrelevant: The offense comes up with 9 hits and has 5 batters with positive WPA, but it's hard to move the needle when you're already down by 6 in the 3rd.
Game 142: The rally sammiches worked!
Tonight's game story: Nats win in 11th on walkoff E-5.
- Mr. Walkoff lets someone else do it: Ryan Zimmerman (+6.4%) hits a two-run bomb in the first for the early lead (+17.6%).
- Needz moar dingerz: Tommy Milone (-10.3%) gives up 3 ER in 5.2 IP and doesn't go yard, although he does strike out 3 and walk none.
- Interesting in a good way: Drew Storen (+13.2%) records 4 outs in the 9th, two Ks (one a K-WP) and a bunt, pop-up double play (+18.1%).
- Back to All Star: Tyler Clippard (+26.4%) keeps it tied for two innings
- In and out of jams: Henry Rodriguez (+10.3%) escapes a runner-on-third, one-out jam with a big strike out (+14.2%).
- Right guy at the right time: Jayson Werth (+16.8%) bounces an infield single to third, and a late throw to second goes in center field to let Zimmy come around for the walkoff run (+29.7%).
- Fuhst baseman, Chwis Maaaaweeewwwo! Chris Marrero (+6.1%) doubles in the tying run in the 7th (+16.1%).
Game 141: Not even six beers could save this game.
- It was enough for the Yankees: Chien-Ming Wang (-5.5%) goes 6 IP with 4 ER, 3 Ks and no BBs.
- Quiet, doubters: Jayson Werth (+18.3%) hits a two-run shot to tie it (+19.3%).
- FAIL: Drew Storen (-46.8%) coughs up 3 ER to blow the tie in the 9th.
Nats Stats: Michael Morse has it figured out.
We've been asking whether Michael Morse is legit since his breakout season last year, and more than one baseball analyst has been waiting for him to get "exposed" with regular playing time, with pitchers figuring out the holes in the big man's powerful swing. So far, it hasn't happened (much to the relief of Nats' fans). Current Nats' skipper Davey Johnson believes in Morse, as Patrick reported earlier today.
Of course, it'll only be possible to say that Morse was "for real" after he's succeeded for season after season. Even then, who knows how long it will last, or how quickly it will change (I'm looking at you, Adam Dunn)? Still, we can take a look at the stats and try to tease out whether a player seems to be doing something different, making some sort of adjustment or taking a new approach that's leading to success. I'm going to argue that the answer for Morse is, "yes."
Usual caveats about small sample sizes apply, since we're dealing with about two season's worth of PA. Data courtesy of fangraphs and baseball-reference, as of games of 9/6/11.
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Game 140: Strasburg rulez, rest of Nats droolz...
Tonight's game story: Strasburg rulez, rest of Nats droolz...
- Welcome back: Stephen Strasburg (+22.8% pitching, +6.9% hitting) dominates over 5 IP, fanning 4 and allowing 2 hits and no ER. He also reaches on error on a sac bunt (scoring a run, +8.3%) and comes around to score, himself.
- Bullpen FAIL, how I've missed you: Brad Peacock (-20.9%) has a less-than-auspicious debut, cashing in Doug Slaten's (-4.6%) two runners and one of his own to tie the game the inning after Stras left. Henry Rodriguez (-34.7%) coughs up 2 ER in the aeyeth to put the Nats behind for good.
- Better (although limited) debuts: Stephen Lombardozzi (+10.5%) leads the Nats in batting WPA on the strength of a PH walk. Atahualpa Severino (+4.1%) gets an out in relief.
- The Beast is dead: Michael Morse (-16.6%) is 0-5 with 4 Ks and 8 LOB. Danny Espinosa (-16.3%) is 0-4 with 3 Ks and 4 LOB.
Washington Nationals: Rainy Day Stat-Shots
While we feverishly try to concoct anti-rain dances to ward off any storm clouds that threaten to derail Strastemberfest, I thought I'd take a little stroll through the BB-ref and FG leaderboards and look for nuggets of wisdom (or at least amusement).
Starting with team hitting, the Nats have the fewest PA in the NL, with only 5,251. That's a combination of having played 1 or 2 fewer games than most other teams and a lot of 1-2-3 innings (the hated Phillies have played two fewer games than the Nats, yet they have 50 more PA). The Nats are second-worst in the leagues in strikeouts (1,129) and K% (21.5%). They're also second in HBP (57), so good job on that. They're 3rd in sacrifice hits (71), and next-to-last in sac flies (27)... remember all of Desi's bunts and runners stranded at third with no outs? The Nats are 3rd at taking extra bases by BsR (+4.6 runs). The Nats hit the fewest line drives (17.7%) in the league, although they are 2nd in bunt hits (29).
Game 139: Save some runs for Strasburg!
- Pulled! John Lannan (+10.8%) gives up way too many fly balls, but only surrenders 1 ER in 5.1 IP with 4 Ks and 2 BBs.
- Reliably Beastly: Michael Morse (+20.4%) is 2-4 with 2 HRs, including a two-run, first-inning shot for the lead and the winning margin (+17.6%)
- Also d1ng3r1ng: Ian Desmond (+9.2%) hits a leadoff solo shot to tie it in the first (+10.7%), while Jayson Werth (+7.0%) adds another solo bomb to tack on (+7.8%).
Game 138: No me gusta
Today's game story: Livo's season ends with a loss.
- I was hoping for a better ending: Livan Hernandez (-29.5%) gives up 8 H and 6 ER in 5.1 IP.
- Try to pick your teammate up, dude: Todd Coffey (-20.9%) cashes in
bothall three runners he inherited from Livo. - Good MI: Danny Espinosa (+28.1%) is 3-3 with a walk and a HBP, including a 4th-inning double to put the Nats on the board and runners on 2nd/3rd (+19.1%).
- Bad MI: Ian Desmond (-23.4%) is 0-5 with a GDP to squelch a 6th-inning, two-on rally (-14.1%).
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