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Not even Nyjer Morgan can outrun Pythagoras!

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Well, it's the end of a long, bad season.  Just how badly did we do?  Back in June, I was seriously trying to figure out if the team was cursed, and we took a look at various measures of "luck."  As you may recall, the Nats were both somewhat unlucky and a good bit of terrible.  The Nats managed to battle back enough to match last season's 59 wins, although we ended up with an extra loss, since 2008's home closer got rained out.  Yep, that's 59-103.

Paging Pythagoras...

In today's stat snapshot, we'll take a look at Pythagorean Win Expectancy.  This compares runs scored to runs allowed to compute an "expected" winning percentage.  If you're very much above or below it, your team is exceptional in some way beyond its ability to score or prevent runs.  Either you're having a run of good/bad luck, or there's some terrible defect/huge advantage somewhere in your team (like, say, a bullpen made of straw).

Back in June, the Nats were fully 6 wins behind their "expected" value after only 62 games.*  That's bad luck (and a terrible bullpen).  It turns out that most of those "extra" losses came in 1- and 2-run games, a sure sign of bad luck (or a bullpen completely incapable of closing out a close game).

Looking at the full season, the Nats scored 710 runs and allowed 874.  According to Pythagoras (actually, Pythagenpat), the Nats finished six games behind their expected 65-97.  That means that the Nats' performance since mid-June has managed to roughly match what you'd expect based on their run differential.  Mind you, their run differential is still bad, it's just not 100 losses bad (barely).  The Nats' underperformance of even their already-poor raw offense and defense is pretty much confined to their atrocious first 60 games.

After the jump:  Close games, curses, and who is teh g0at?

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via fangraphs.com

What a game. Longest in Nationals history, second sweep in row, and ending the season 7-0 after starting 0-7, a first in major league history!  A long, tense, low-scoring game with both side in and out of many jams. J.D. Martin (+0.174) went a solid 6.0, but had to be bailed out by Tyler Clippard (+0.200), Jason Bergmann (+0.066), Ron Villone (+0.219), Saul Rivera (+0.428--he went 3 scoreless), and Logan Kensing (+0.352).  The bullpen combined to throw 9 innings after Martin's quality start.  Alberto Gonzalez (+0.190) came through with the winning RBI single (+0.372) and Adam Dunn (+0.231) had a pinch-hit RBI single for the Nats' other run.  Whew!  See you in the offseason.

via www.fangraphs.com

In a seesaw game like this, we have a TON of H3r0es.  Cristian Guzman (+0.442) came through with a go-ahead double in the 10th, then Justin Maxwell (+0.363) did with a dinger in the 11th!  Meanwhile, Ross Detwiler (+0.299) threw a solid 5 innings, Jason Bergmann (+0.296) was solid in relief, and Logan Kensing (+0.097) picked up the pieces after Zack Segovia (-0.403) tried to be the g0at.  A lot of drama in extras, but the Nats own the meaningless games!!

via www.fangraphs.com

A nice little win, further showcasing new FB.com Her0 Ian Desmond (+0.321) who went 2-3 with a triple, HR and a walk.  Justin Maxwell (+0.059) settled for 2-5 with a triple, while Adam Dunn (+0.032) finally broke his for 0-fer-jillion slump with a pair of doubles.  It's nice to finish the season with some curly Ws.

via www.fangraphs.com

via www.fangraphs.com

Justin Maxwell (+0.723) hits a walkoff granny with 2 out.  Couldn't write it better yourself.

via www.fangraphs.com

• Yaaaay! Luis Castillo misses first base, allowing Ian Desmond (+0.377) to beat out the back end of a DP and drive in the go-ahead run (+0.247)
• Yaaaaaaay! Tyler Clippard (+0.200) gets out of a bases-loaded jam with a line-out DP to Alberto Gonzalez (-0.072)
• Booooo! Adam Dunn (-0.151) o-fers, in spite of the two guys in donkey costumes and Dunn jerseys who were there to cheer him on (I think)
• Her0! Dezzie, the one-and-only shortstop of the Nats, now and for the future. 2-4 with a 2B, HR, and the game-winning ROE

Good game, I gotta say.  J.D. Martin (-0.024) actually impressed me by getting out of his bases-loaded, no-out jam in the first with only a single walked-in run.  Even Mike MacDougal (+0.168) managed not to make it "interesting," although Elijah Dukes (-0.010) had to work a little harder than I'd have liked to track down the last out (but he did it!).