SB Nation User Blog: Doghouse

SooperDooks and Juan Miranda go yard for Licey (Dukes' monster shot to left center starts at about...

Doghouse — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 02:45:25 -0000

SooperDooks and Juan Miranda go yard for Licey (Dukes' monster shot to left center starts at about 30 seconds in).

Ryan Zimmerman wins Silver Slugger!

Doghouse — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:11:18 -0000

Ryan Zimmerman wins Silver Slugger!

The props keep coming! Way to go, Zimmy. He and Matt Kemp are the only two NLers to win both a Golden Glove and a Silver Slugger in 2009. Alfonso Soriano was the last (or should I say, "other") National to win a Silver Slugger (needless to say, Sori did not win the Golden Glove that year, in spite of my coaching).

Tuesday Nats Stats: How'd we do?

Doghouse — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 18:24:40 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Not even Nyjer Morgan can outrun Pythagoras!

Browse more photos »

Well, it's the end of a long, bad season. Just how badly did we do? Back in June, I was seriously trying to figure out if the team was cursed, and we took a look at various measures of "luck." As you may recall, the Nats were both somewhat unlucky and a good bit of terrible. The Nats managed to battle back enough to match last season's 59 wins, although we ended up with an extra loss, since 2008's home closer got rained out. Yep, that's 59-103.

Paging Pythagoras...

In today's stat snapshot, we'll take a look at Pythagorean Win Expectancy. This compares runs scored to runs allowed to compute an "expected" winning percentage. If you're very much above or below it, your team is exceptional in some way beyond its ability to score or prevent runs. Either you're having a run of good/bad luck, or there's some terrible defect/huge advantage somewhere in your team (like, say, a bullpen made of straw).

Back in June, the Nats were fully 6 wins behind their "expected" value after only 62 games.* That's bad luck (and a terrible bullpen). It turns out that most of those "extra" losses came in 1- and 2-run games, a sure sign of bad luck (or a bullpen completely incapable of closing out a close game).

Looking at the full season, the Nats scored 710 runs and allowed 874. According to Pythagoras (actually, Pythagenpat), the Nats finished six games behind their expected 65-97. That means that the Nats' performance since mid-June has managed to roughly match what you'd expect based on their run differential. Mind you, their run differential is still bad, it's just not 100 losses bad (barely). The Nats' underperformance of even their already-poor raw offense and defense is pretty much confined to their atrocious first 60 games.

After the jump: Close games, curses, and who is teh g0at?

Get a little closer

Early in the season, the Nats were terrible at winning close games. By the end of the season, they'd managed to almost turn that around. Take a look at this table of W/L and "expected" W/L versus run differential (rounding throws things off slightly).

	Actual W/L	Expected W/L
One-run games	22-24	23-23
Two-run games	11-22	14-19
Three-run games	7-16	9-14
4+ run games	19-41	20-40
Extra innings	6-9	6-9

As we've seen in countless agonizing losses (especially in the early season), the Nats have trouble winning close games. However, they're getting better. Back in June, the Nats were 1-8 in extras (including the rain suspension), but by the end of the season they managed to play right up to their run potential in the bonus innings.

BLAME!

After I noticed the apparent difference in performance between the June data and the whole-season data, I started to wonder if maybe the Nats' play correlated to certain other dates. Just for fun, let's pick before and after the All-Star Break, games 1-50 and 51-162, and before and after the July 31st trade deadline. These dates are, of course, completely arbitrary selections. Again, just for fun, let's call these periods "Manny" (pre-AS), "Riggles" (post-AS), "Saint" (games 1-50), "McChatty" (games 51-162), "Mal des Expos" (pre-trade) and "Curse over" (post-trade).

	Actual W/L	Expected W/L
Manny	26-61	33-54
Riggles	33-42	32-43
Saint	14-36	19-31
McChatty	45-67	46-56
Mal des Expos	32-71	41-62
Curse over	27-32	24-35

On the surface, it looks like the Nats were playing noticeably below their talent level in the "Manny" and "Saint" eras, roughly at their expected level in the "Riggles" and "McChatty" periods, much below expected during the "Mal des Expos," and noticeably better than expected in "Curse over." Of course, there were a lot of things going on over the season, like the Milledge/Hanrahan for Morgan/Burnett trade and Josh Willingham's crazy hot streak. It's hard enough to say what correlates with what, much less what caused what. Still, an interesting coincidence, huh? I blame PLoD.

So, how'd we do?

We did horribly! We came in last place, we lost 103 games, and we managed to significantly underperform even the low level of aggregate talent that we displayed all season. However, it appears that the team picked up in the latter half, managing both to improve its level of play, and to improve its record to be on par with its level of play. This improvement seems to correlate with some personnel changes on both sides of the dugout railing. And, yes, the Curse of the Expos was real. Thank frank it's over.

Data courtesy of baseball-reference.com

* At the time, I had data for 61 games, because of the suspended game on May 5. When you add it back to the data and do Pythagenpat instead of "squared" Pythag, we were 6 games behind expected rather than the 7 I calculated at the time.

Game 162: Finally, some history we can call our own!

Doghouse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 21:56:18 -0000

via fangraphs.com

What a game. Longest in Nationals history, second sweep in row, and ending the season 7-0 after starting 0-7, a first in major league history! A long, tense, low-scoring game with both side in and out of many jams. J.D. Martin (+0.174) went a solid 6.0, but had to be bailed out by Tyler Clippard (+0.200), Jason Bergmann (+0.066), Ron Villone (+0.219), Saul Rivera (+0.428--he went 3 scoreless), and Logan Kensing (+0.352). The bullpen combined to throw 9 innings after Martin's quality start. Alberto Gonzalez (+0.190) came through with the winning RBI single (+0.372) and Adam Dunn (+0.231) had a pinch-hit RBI single for the Nats' other run. Whew! See you in the offseason.

Game 161: STREAK!!!

Doghouse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 01:24:20 -0000

via www.fangraphs.com

In a seesaw game like this, we have a TON of H3r0es. Cristian Guzman (+0.442) came through with a go-ahead double in the 10th, then Justin Maxwell (+0.363) did with a dinger in the 11th! Meanwhile, Ross Detwiler (+0.299) threw a solid 5 innings, Jason Bergmann (+0.296) was solid in relief, and Logan Kensing (+0.097) picked up the pieces after Zack Segovia (-0.403) tried to be the g0at. A lot of drama in extras, but the Nats own the meaningless games!!

Game 160: Seriously, Guz--start practicing at second...

Doghouse — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 02:43:41 -0000

via www.fangraphs.com

A nice little win, further showcasing new FB.com Her0 Ian Desmond (+0.321) who went 2-3 with a triple, HR and a walk. Justin Maxwell (+0.059) settled for 2-5 with a triple, while Adam Dunn (+0.032) finally broke his for 0-fer-jillion slump with a pair of doubles. It's nice to finish the season with some curly Ws.

Baseball magic

Doghouse — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 15:00:12 -0000

Baseball magic

Relive the one of the best moments of the 2009 season with Charlie and Dave. Well, okay, it's the whole at-bat, so "best several minutes" of the 2009 season. Heck, I was there, and I was on the edge of my seat listening to it again. Let's go Nats! Let's go Nats! Let's go Nats!

Game 159: The Nats continue to dominate junk-time

Doghouse — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:11:05 -0000

via www.fangraphs.com

Yaaaay! Pinch-hittin' Pete Orr (+0.168) singles home doubles machine Ryan Zimmerman (+0.304) for the winning tally

Yaaaaaaay! Mike MacDougal (+0.206) comes in to throw four pitches and get the game-winning ground out.

Well done! MacDoody, Tyler Clippard (+0.203) and Garrett Mock (+0.242) combine to hold the Braves to one run.

Game 158: Best game all season

Doghouse — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 02:01:13 -0000

via www.fangraphs.com

Justin Maxwell (+0.723) hits a walkoff granny with 2 out. Couldn't write it better yourself.

Game 157: Enjoy 2B next year, Guz...

Doghouse — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 02:14:49 -0000

via www.fangraphs.com

Yaaaay! Luis Castillo misses first base, allowing Ian Desmond (+0.377) to beat out the back end of a DP and drive in the go-ahead run (+0.247)
Yaaaaaaay! Tyler Clippard (+0.200) gets out of a bases-loaded jam with a line-out DP to Alberto Gonzalez (-0.072)
Booooo! Adam Dunn (-0.151) o-fers, in spite of the two guys in donkey costumes and Dunn jerseys who were there to cheer him on (I think)
Her0! Dezzie, the one-and-only shortstop of the Nats, now and for the future. 2-4 with a 2B, HR, and the game-winning ROE

Good game, I gotta say. J.D. Martin (-0.024) actually impressed me by getting out of his bases-loaded, no-out jam in the first with only a single walked-in run. Even Mike MacDougal (+0.168) managed not to make it "interesting," although Elijah Dukes (-0.010) had to work a little harder than I'd have liked to track down the last out (but he did it!).