SB Nation User Blog: Doghouse

SBF reminds us why we hate the Fillies...

Doghouse — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 16:52:19 -0000

SBF reminds us why we hate the Fillies...

...it's the fans. SBF has a long history of not liking Filly Fans, but the treatment he and his wife got at their park last night was downright ugly. Brotherly Love? More like, "Boorish A$$clowns."

Game 140 in Haiku form...

Doghouse — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 18:48:38 -0000

...so, after taunting a buddy who I'd offered my spare ticket to last night's game about how he missed the Best. Game. Ever., he challenged me to recap it in Haiku form. I gather this is also something of a sport among Nationals Journal commenters. Anyhow, I was pleased with my efforts:

First pitch from Perez
Plonks Utley square on the hip.
Take that, you jackass!

Milledge's hard slide
Knocks Chase on his behind.
Double play undone.

Zimmerman goes yard.
Guzman's double clears bases.
Howard's dingers lose.

Put your own Nats haiku in the comments and drive Ed crazy!

Oh, SNAP!

Doghouse — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 15:44:57 -0000

Oh, SNAP!

Chico (the reporter): "...gotta catch a flight to Atlanta, which is never a fun trip, unless you're a baseball team and Jo-Jo Reyes greets your arrival."

Heh. But, to paraphrase Han Solo, "Don't get cocky--you just made out with your sister."

Zimmermann (Jordan) done for the year

Doghouse — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 03:44:09 -0000

Zimmermann (Jordan) done for the year

Too many IP, bicep tendintis... I was hoping to see him this month. Guess we have to wait for Spring.

Break out the broom... again?!

Doghouse — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 20:21:00 -0000

Nats take three from the Braves, using a 5-run 8th (anchored by a 3-run HR from Aaron Boone) for a come-from-behind, 8-4 win. Guz went 2-5 with a double, Boney 2-3 with a double and a walk, Zimmy 2-4 with a walk.

Mock works a scoreless 8th and Balester manages to steady up after a shaky fourth inning and pitch 7 full innings for the first time in his major league career.

Let's go Nats go!

Dukes: "I love walks."

Doghouse — Sun, 31 Aug 2008 15:24:53 -0000

From the WaTimes gamer:

“I love walks. That's my motto — a walk is as good as a hit,” Dukes said. “I got two key walks today. It shows that you don't always have to get a hit.”

On his approach to the crucial AB:

“He had a lot of breaking balls, so I figured he'd try to attack me the same way,” Dukes said. “That's the thing. They know I can hit a fastball, so they try to go breaking balls. I'll take the walk.”

Dukes' walk rate is 13.4% right now, for an isolated patience (OBP-AVG) of 0.101. That's second only to Ryan Langerhans among actives right now (LangerWalks has a 19.3 BB% and an isolated patience of 0.158).

Writing on the wall for Lenny?

Doghouse — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:22:24 -0000

Writing on the wall for Lenny?

There have been some rumblings in the Nat-o-sphere that Lenny might really be on the way out after this season, with AAA Columbus hitting coach Rick Eckstein joining the major league club. His big success this year was Ryan Langerhans; he helped RL shorten his swing, and we've seen the improvement in the stats.

w00t! SuperDukes back tonight!

Doghouse — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 13:44:44 -0000

w00t! SuperDukes back tonight!

The Nats play OPERATION

Doghouse — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 20:44:27 -0000

The Nats play OPERATION

A fun WaPo review of this year's DL. My favorite line: 'The underwater treadmill is almost worn out from overuse.'

Tuesday Nats Stats--Reliable Ronnie and The Amazing Willie

Doghouse — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 14:16:44 -0000

Ronnie Belliard and Willie Harris were the driving forces behind building the towering pile of awesome that was Friday's 13-5 win over the league-leading Cubbies. On this special getaway-day Monday version of Tuesday Nats Stats, we take a look at just how good Ronnie and Willie are this season: some kind of amazing, or only in comparison to the rest of the Nats? This year's stats after the jump.

It's been an odd, frustrating season. We've played musical lineups all year as pretty much everyone has spent time on the DL. But two of the surprising stabilizing forces have been Ronnie Belliard and Willie Harris. Let's troll baseball-reference and the Hardball Times for some stats!

RELIABLE RONNIE

Let's start with Belliard. This is his tenth full season in the majors (plus 8 games in the 1998 season, his first). He was an All-Star for the Indians in 2004. So far this season, he's hitting 278/369/479, with an OPS+ of 122. Compare this to his career-average line of 274/339/416 (OPS+ 96). He has 11 HR this year, which is not exceptional--Ronnie's had as many as 17 in a season (2005). What is notable is that those 11 HR have come in only 264 AB (it took him 511 AB to hit 11 HR last year). Ronnie's home-run per fly-ball ratio is 14.9%, a career high (last year it was 6.7%, and his career average is ~10%). His line-drive rate is up this year, too, at a career-high 23% (16.7% in '07, career average ~19%). His ground-ball rate is down (39.7% vs a career rate around 45%) while his fly-ball rate is steady, but with more HR (as above) and fewer pop-ups (5.1% of flies are infield pop-ups this season, vs ~12% career). Ronnie is smacking the heck out of the ball this year. It's not just luck, either: his .312 BABIP, while slightly above league average, is in line with his career average, and actually slightly low for a such a high LD%.

Ronnie is striking out more this year, picking up a K in 20.2% of his AB. His career average is closer to 15% (last year was 14.1%). However, he's not losing his batting eye--his walk rate is 11.6%, roughly double the 6% or so it's been the last three seasons. That argues he's just swinging a bit more like a slugger, increasing his odds of whiffing with a big cut. The heck of it is, he's absorbing those extra strike outs without a hit to his BA, and while increasing his OBP over his career level by 030 and his SLG by 060! Oddly, the extra power is all HR--he's smacked 20 2Bs in 263 AB this year, which is about 1 every 13 AB, only slightly better than his career value of 1 every 15 AB. Compare 2008's 1 HR every 27.5 AB to Ronnie's career average of 1 HR every 45.0 AB! That's exactly double the HR rate this season vs career.

Bottom line: Ronnie is seeing the ball well this season and then smacking the heck out of it when he gets a pitch he likes. Sadly, all his time injured and on the bench (waiting for other starters to be injured, or for someone to express trade interest in FLop...) means that the Nats haven't been able to take much advantage of what looks like a career year for Belliard, batting-wise. For amusement, the Marcels projection for Ronnie's batting line this year is 280/330/420, with 12 HR in 491 AB--right in line with his career average. Keep in mind, that even without his brilliant 2008 year, Belliard is a solid league-average hitter (any of the 9,000 who watch on TV are familiar with HoFer Don Sutton's admiration of his "well-thought-out at-bats"), and there's no shame in being league average. League-average teams play 0.500 ball, and we could do with some of that.

Now, what about in the field? Is Ronnie the answer to all of our problems in the middle? Well, fielding is harder to measure, and 2008 only confuses things. Most seasons, Belliard has played about 1000-1200 innings at 2B, while so far this year he's had roughly 220 innings at each of 2B and 3B, plus 130 innings at 1B! Anyhow, Ronnie is a roughly league-average 2B with the glove. His career FP is 0.981, right around the league average of 0.983 for 2Bs. The same is true of his career range factor per game: 5.05 vs the 2B league average of 4.96. The "yes, but" comes in when we look at 2008: his fielding stats have dropped from league average to clearly below average. His FP (higher is better--league average in parens) at 3B is 0.918 (vs 0.956); at 2B he's 0.974 (vs 0.982); at 1B he's 0.992 (vs 0.993). His range factor (higher is better) is down versus league average (in parens), too: 3B is 2.34 (vs 2.60); 2B is 4.43 (vs 4.84); 1B is 8.30 (vs 9.39). I think we can cut Ronnie some slack at the corners, since they're not his regular position, but his fielding is off at 2B, as well. Ronnie has lost a step in the field. He's not quite the "stone-handed, slow-footed veteran" I rail against when talking about the DH rule, but below-average defense can cancel out the gains from his bat if his glove work deteriorates further. Ronnie will probably be a decent choice for 2009, but a bad one for 2010.

THE AMAZING WILLIE HARRIS

Does Willie want to play? He's been in the bigs for all or part of 8 seasons, and has had 400+ AB in a season only once (2004 with the ChiSox). Compared to his career, this year is nothing short of... well... amazing. His line in 2008 so far is 255/343/450 (OPS+ 107), against a career average of 249/323/345 (OPS+ 75). Take another look--his AVG and OBP are a little bit higher, but he's added 100 points of SLG! WTF? He's got 12 HR this season in 282 AB (1 per 23.5 AB) almost double the 7 he had in his entire MLB career prior to 2008 (career average of 1 per 80 AB). What's he doing?

First of all, Willie's hitting the ball in the air more. Prior to 2007, his FB% was about 30, and his GB% was around 50--he hit half of stuff on the ground. But last year and this year, that switched to about 40% flies and 40% grounders--more stuff hit in the air. His line drive rate is steady at around 20%, and his BABIP is a solidly-below-league-average 0.273, so he's not getting lucky. Sure, he's popping out some (12% of flies in 2008, vs ~5% prior), but I'll take that trade to get 10+ more HR! Amazingly, he's managed to find his power without whiffing more--his strikeout rate of 18% is actually the lowest of his last 6 seasons (it was 20.6% last year). Plus, he has a 10.8% walk rate (matching his career-high 2004 season).

Is Willie for real? Interestingly, Marcels already projected a career season for Harris: 260/340/380 with 5 HR in 354 AB (~90 OPS+), just not quite as career a season as he seems to be having--add in the extra HRs and you're pretty much there. Can he do it next year? Well, he's managed a 345ish OPS+ in each of the three seasons he's had "regular playing time" (300+ PA, in 2004, 2007, 2008) with a 255-270 BA. His isolated patience (OBP-AVG) is a solid 075-090 for the past five seasons, so that all looks legit. The big outlier is the power: prior to 2007, his ISO (SLG-AVG) was around 050-060. In 2007, it jumped to 120, then this season it exploded to 195! Has it finally "clicked" for Willie? The shift of FB%/GB% in 2007-2008 from his prior career argues a different approach or a change to his swing, and the power numbers followed! Now, keep in mind that even though this year is huge for Willie, it's only given us a somewhat-above-average hitter (OPS+ of 109, remember?). If 2009 is somewhere between 2007 and 2008, that'll be about a 260/350/400 line. That's solidly league average, which we can sure as heck use! Let's hope Manny notices that all the big numbers came in years with a lot of PA: Willie not only wants to play, he needs to play.

Fortunately, Willie plays every position, so he can get regular playing time by giving a different guy a day off each game. But, how well does he play every position?

Okay, career FPs (expressed as Willie/League Average): 2B, 0.988/0.981; LF, 0.985/0.983; CF, 2.81/2.69; 3B, 0.909/0.952; SS, 1.000/0.974

Career range factors per game (Willie/league average): 2B, 5.18/4.92; LF, 2.30/1.97; CF, 2.81/2.69; 3B, 1.70/2.62; SS, 3.55/4.55

Ah, but 2008 is even better! Check out this season's RF/G: 2B, 6.15/4.84; LF, 2.60/1.91; CF, 2.94/2.61; 3B, 1.23/2.60; SS, 2.46/3.64.

WH has a solid above-average glove in the OF and at 2B. 3B and SS, not so much (although he has only a few innings at those positions). He dominates the league in LF, but even with his improved 2008 power numbers, he's not really a classic corner slugger--more like a better Ryan Langerhans. Still, he's a hell of a utility guy: league-average or better hitting, and plus defense at three positions (IF and OF!).

WHAT ABOUT NEXT YEAR?

Willie and Ronnie are having terrific seasons. I think there's an argument to be made that Harris is coming into his prime, and that even with some regression next year, we'll be looking at a 100 OPS+ guy who plays great defense--if we can get him enough AB. We're going to have a lot of middle infielders next year, so I'm not sure how easy that will be--we're more likely to see WH as a 4th OF. As for Ronnie, he might regress to league average, too--but 100 OPS+ is nothing shabby in this lineup (Guz took a 100 OPS+ to the AS Game). His defense is a bit more of a worry, and I think 2009 may be his last season on the Nats, given the "youth movement" and the recent middle-infield logjam (unless we get the Dodgers to buy him this season, I guess). I'm assuming that among Dmitri, NJ, and Mark Teixeira, we'll have a steady 1B next year (okay, at least half-joking about Texra).

BONUS NATS STATS: BEYOND AAAA!

I just noticed Ryan Langerhans finally had his 100th PA, making his stats Somewhat Meaningful. His line is a solid league-average 250/394/375 (105 OPS+). How about that Discerning Eye? In 101 PA (80 AB) he's had 18 BB and 20 K. Compared to 2007, he's dropped his K/AB from 38% to 25%, while upping his BB/PA from 11% to 18%! He only has 1 HR this year, but 5 2Bs and 1 3B versus 6 HR, 6 2B and 2 3B last season (in twice as many AB). Is he finally moving past replacement level? Ryan Langerhans--beyond AAAA?