Here´s a belated AAOP that is based on the assumption of a 100 million $ range budget and the current market for Jose Reyes. Hoping the Marlins can´t & won´t go nuts on Reyes but “merely” reach the 100 million $ type range over 5 years (or 115 million $ over 6 years guaranteed) which the Mets can / will hopefully match – even with all the current payroll restrictions, I´m assuming Reyes stays in this scenario.

I´m not going to bitch & moan about the Wilpon´s, past contracts handed out by Omar Minaya, how life is sometimes unfair or what a large market team should look like. All I´m doing is trying to combine realism with at least the modest hope of a return for the franchise SS, trying to manage the payroll, try to balance keeping the team competitive enough for 2012 without mortaging the future in terms of player development / future finances. So, that said, here´s the plan:

1. Re-sign SS Jose Reyes to a 5-year, 100 million $ contract (15-18-21-21-21 + 4 million $ buyout or club option 6th year at 22 million $, with Reyes getting a CC Sabathia type opt-out clause after year 3 of the deal, i.e. after the 2014 season).

2. Non tender C Ronnie Paulino.

3. Select OF Jordan Danks (CWS) in Rule V draft.

4. Sign P Frank Francisco* to a 2-year, 9 million $ contract (4.5 million in each 2012 and 2013)

6. Trade OF Jason Bay (16 million in 2012), P DJ Carrasco (1.25 million in 2012), P Danny Herrera and OF Fernando Martinez to CWS for OF Alex Rios (12 million in 2012) and P Matt Thornton (5.5 million $ in 2012).

7. Sign C Jason Varitek** to a 1-year, 2.0 million $ contract.

8. Re-sign OF Scott Hairston to a 1-year, 1.0 million $ contract.

9. Sign P Aaron Cook to a 1-year, 1.0 million $ contract with incentives similar to what Young & Capuano got last winter while dropping OF Mike Baxter from 40-man roster to make room.

10. Re-sign P Miguel Batista to a minor league deal and give him a NRI to spring training.

* patented “proven” closer

** patented “veteran winning” catcher

Your 2012 New York Mets:

SP: Santana – Dickey – Niese – Pelfrey – Gee (or backup plan: Cook)

RP: Francisco – Thornton – Parnell – Byrdak – Acosta – open competition between NRI Batista, plus Stinson – Beato – Schwinden – maybe even Carson for final middle relief spot on staff – Cook or Gee is the long man, if both are needed in rotation, then Batista is long man

Costs for pitching: about 48 million $ in 2012

Opening Day lineup:

1) Reyes, ss

2) Tejada, 2b

3) Davis, 1b

4) Wright, 3b

5) Duda, lf

6) Pagan, cf

7) Rios, rf

8) Thole, c

Bench:

Varitek, c

Murphy, super sub at 1b-2b-3b-lf-rf who starts twice per week and DH in AL

Turner, if

Danks, of (competes against Loewen for a bench spot in ST)

Hairston, of

Costs for hitting: about 53 million $ in 2012

Total payroll: 101 million $ for 2012, assuming Pelfrey & Pagan combine for about 10 million $ in arbitration, i.e. barely over the budget and with “danger” of getting up all the way to 104 million $ in Cook reaches his incentives.

All in all, this mock team obviously needs health from Johan Santana – which of course is a big “if”and better health overall as it is. I am aware that the rotation is shallow if something goes wrong but Cook and maybe Batista / Schwinden will have to suffice for now while hoping that internal re-inforcements with upside are ready to help by mid-season. The bullpen adds two quality veteran relievers who have closing experience in the AL and will hopefully thrive in the NL and help stabilize the bullpen. Parnell & Acosta can share the 7th inning with Byrdak being restricted to LOOGY use and a cheap pitcher or two completing the middle & mop-up relief spots to be settled in spring training.

The defense is much improved with Tejada taking over at 2b fulltime, Rios starting most of the time in RF and Duda shifting to LF with Ike Davis returning fulltime to 1b. On the bench, Rule V pick Danks provides speed & defense off the bench, especially as a late game replacement for Duda. Murphy & Hairston are excellent pinch hitters while Turner can be a jack of all trades who doesn´t play a lot but can hold his own if needed. Varitek is there to tutor Thole and the young pitchers and also serve as a “payback” for Bobby V. now managing in BOS.

All in all, I don´t see why this team can´t win 85 games in 2012 with good health and maybe a little luck – and possibly sneak into the Wild Card hunt. While Rios is guaranteed 12 million in 2014, the Mets get out the ugly Jason Bay vest for 2014 easily while Thornton is cost-neutral with Rios for 2012 and 2013 vs. Bay financially. And since Rios is more than two years younger than Bay and certainly a better athlete, maybe he can return to his 2010 form and be a solid complementary player. At worst, he can be part of a platoon with maybe Nieuwenhuis once he´s up or Murphy if he manages to handle RF defensively. I am aware that Rios is a big risk, has OB skills similar to Jeff Franceour and will not create a lot of enthusiasm here. However, if he can return to 2010 form, he´ll be a nice contributor and help improve the defense a lot. Plus create room on the 2012 & 2013 payrolls to add a quality reliever in Thornton.

Most of all, besides Reyes´ becoming more expensive from 2014 on, there are no longterm contractual obligations, so basically, 2014 commitments are essentially 33 million $ for Reyes & Rios that year with only Reyes remaining for 2015 and 2016. And except for trading the brittle F-Mart to CWS as basically the price for Matt Thornton, all the young talent here is kept intact.

Finally, sorry for potential spelling issues as a non-native speaker....

With the 2011 season almost  in the books, I took some time to look at what looms for the Mets´40-man roster in the upcoming weeks & months. Now, this is not some sort of 2012+ plan. I´m not going to suggest any fantasy trades or external acquisitions. This is just, looking at what´s already here and how & whether it´ll fit on the 40-man roster. Since there´s a direct link between this general question and September callups, I´ll get into those as well.

As of today, this is the Mets 40-man roster (according to the official site and it appears to be pretty accurate to me):    http://mlb.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=nym

 

I.              September callups.

So, we´re currently at 39 players with J.Santana and C.Young on the 60-day DL to bring the actual player  total involved up to 41 though these two don´t count for now. It probably won´t be an issue to shift at least D.Murphy, J.Mejia and T.Buchholz who are certainly out for the rest of 2011 to the 60-day DL as well. That´d make it 36-players with room for at least 3-4 September additions currently not on the 40-man roster.

Likely candidates are RH C.Schwinden, RH M.Batista and IF J.Satin, all currently performing okay to well for AAA Buffalo and figure to fill needs up here as well – maybe as early as next Monday for the DH. So, assuming these 3 get added at some point sooner or later, we´re back at 39. Since a return of J.Santana prior to the end of the 2011 season can´t be ruled out, we keep one spot open for him, just in case he returns on the comeback trail to make a late September cameo appearance.

As for other players already on the 40-man but not on the 25-man roster yet, it appears pretty certain that reliever Dale Thayer will be back up, it´s also been stated that hard-throwing RH Josh Stinson will be up as well.

Mike Nickeas (who probably goes down for a day when Reyes is activated in case Paulino can avoid the DL) will be up again too for sure.

Zach Lutz has been raking and will be up in all likelihood, especially with 1b open for auditions.

So, all in all, I assume we´ll have about up to 32 active players come early September, once the Buffalo / Binghamton seasons are over. If the Mets need a roster spot prior to Sept. 1st, I assume Igarashi gets DFA. .

F-Mart should be up too – but he´s still on DL and I doubt he´ll get PT with Duda likely to play fulltime in RF down the stretch.

Don´t think LH M. O´Connor who has struggled at AAA will or deserves to be back.

I also don´t think IF J.Valdespin – as encouraging as his year has been – is ready, so unless Reyes doesn´t return as expected, don´t see an opening for him. 

RH Armando Rodriguez is merely in A-ball and probably will be in the playoffs with St.Lucie but certainly needs to work on keeping the ball in the park before of major league ambitions.

I don´t think we´ll see any other prospects added. Candidates who need to be added after 2011 figure to  be rested or possibly head straight to the Arizona Fall League in late September. So, don´t expect to see 2b Reese Havens, RH Jeurys Familia  or RH Brad Holt among others up here in Sept. either.

RH John Lujan who has done okay in AAA is already 27 and thus a bubble candidate for inclusion on the 40-man roster. Maybe he gets added as well, especially if Igarashi or O ´Connor is DFA sooner. For now, I don´t think he´ll be up.

 

II.             Post-season 40-man roster outlook

Once the season is over, Santana and – under my plan above – D.Murphy & J.Mejia return to the 40-man roster for sure. Plus T.Buchholz who is not eligible for FA yet, I believe but should be kept, assuming he gets over the depression issues that have kept him out. 

With the additions of Satin, Schwinden and Batista earlier, this means, we have 44 spots (including FA RH C.Young who also returns from the 60-day DL to the 40-man roster formally) filled.

Of course, you can scratch off looming free agents Capuano – Isringhausen – Byrdak – Igarashi – C.Young on the staff and free agent bats W.Harris & S.Hairston too. I suppose 40-year-old RH Miguel Batista also is a FA and can drop off right away too.  I´m very much hoping Jose Reyes is re-signed within the 15-day period after the WS, so that leaves him on my virtual 40-man.

Doing the math, 44 players minus 8 free agents mean that 36 spots remain occupied. Not nearly enough for all the additions that need to be made and placeholders for free agents the team might want to add.  Plus we need to keep at least a minimum of 2 spots open for free agents and / or Rule V picks (i.e. next year´s versions of Capuano, Beato, Paulino, Hairston, etc.).

That makes it 38 spots (36 + 2 free agents to be named) . Keep in mind this already includes Jose Reyes in my plan who shall be re-signed right after the WS during the exclusive negotiating window. At least that´s what I hope and sort of expect as well.

Unfortunately,  6 of the Mets likely top 15 prospects need to be protected as well this winter:

RH J.Familia – 2b R.Havens – OF K.Nieuwenhuis – SS W.Flores – OF C.Puello – OF J.Lagares

I believe hard-throwing LH Robert Carson (22) also is a must-protect with a power arm that´d certainly be snagged up in the Rule V draft by a bunch of teams in spite of his shaky 2011 season. Of course, one could get tricky regarding Flores & Puello who would clearly be overmatched in the majors in 2012. And while both have had underwhelming 2011 seasons too, both are still very young and the Mets farm system doesn´t have many potential impact positions players. Thus, I´m rather safe than sorry on both.

Adding these 7 alone (plus the 2 free agent placeholders) we´re at 45.

That means we need to cut at least 5 players to get back to 40 and actually need to cut more than that if we want to protect other minor league players too or sign more than just  2 free agents to guaranteed contracts or participate in the Rule V draft.

Looking at the current 40-man roster (see link above), plus counting likely additions Satin & Schwinden too, I see a total of 12 players who would be under consideration for these needed 5 (or more) cuts:

Pitchers:

RH M.Alvarez – likely a cut after injury marred 2011 with low-ceiling anyway

 

RH D.Thayer – nothing special as generic middle reliever and thus my 2nd cut, he gets an

NRI to ST though if he wishes

 

LH M.O´Connor – obvious cut # 3

 

RH Arm. Rodriguez – tough call, with a nice K-ratio, I´d try to keep him, though it´s 50-50

 

RH C.Schwinden – low ceiling but solid production, I believe he sticks and enters 2012 as SP depth sort of like Gee & Misch were prior to 2011.

 

RH M.Acosta – has looked better lately, way too many HR given up but probably ok as a 6th

inning type low-pressure middle guy & depth heading into ST. 

 

RH DJ Carrasco – somewhat disappointing season but rubber armed and with a  guaranteed 2012 contract at modest cost, he probably stays but could also be sneaked through waivers in all likelihood. Thus another bubble guy for me. 

 

C M. Nickeas – not tough to find another 3rd string good-glove no hit guy  but also

apparently has value in pitcher development and seems like a good soldier, very much on bubble – probably gets dropped and gets an immediate NRI to ST again and thus is my definite cut # 4

 

1b/OF N.Evans – the “forgotten” man aka “who” finally gets a chance. Not a big fan of Evans though and I believe Lutz can do the same or better, but If Evans performs, I believe he may stick.

 

IF J.Satin – he´s up by early September under my scenario and has certainly earned a shot. Can he hit MLB pitching or play adequate enough defense to be of use ? Maybe the call will end up being Satin vs. Evans… for now, I try to retain both and prefer Satin who could play 2b on occasions too.

 

OF J.Pridie – strictly a backup OF. Don´t see any reason to keep him. Thus cut # 5.

 

OF M.Baxter – some interesting minor league stats & a nice hometown story plus attachments to DePo & Co., I believe they´ll try to keep him as a possible reserve guy and thus he sticks.

 

So, by DFAing Alvarez, O´Connor, Thayer, Nickeas and Pridie, the roster is right at 40 with 2 spots open for free agents included.

Now, this also means, there´s no place for other Rule V eligible minor leaguers like RH B.Holt. RH C.McHugh, RH R.Cruz, RH J.Lujan, 3b J.Marte, 1b A.Dykstra and C K.Gronauer who could all potentially attract some interest from other teams in the Rule V draft.

In a perfect world, Holt & McHugh are added to the roster as well – possibly instead Evans if he doesn´t perform in September  and / or your choice of Carrasco or Acosta. In a final decision, I decide to protect Holt and his power bullpen arm over Carrasco who probably sticks with a guaranteed 2012 contract anyway, sort of how they did it with Igarashi last fall.

 

So, heading into the off-season, this is my projected 38-man protected list:

SP: Santana – Dickey – Niese – Pelfrey – Gee – Schwinden (6) 

RP: Parnell – Beato – Acosta – Stinson – Holt – Buchholz  (6)

C: Thole – Paulino (2)

IF: Davis – Murphy – Turner – Reyes (!) – Tejada – Wright – Evans (7)

OF: Duda – Bay (gulp) – Pagan – Baxter (4)

Prospect P: Mejia – Familia – Arm. Rodriguez – Carson (4)

Prospect H: Lutz – Satin – Valdespin – Havens -  Flores – Nieuwenhuis – Puello – FMart – Lagares (9)

= total of 38 with room for two free agents, most likely a LH reliever and an OF, quite possibly just retaining Capuano & Hairston.

 

In case more than 2 free agents need to be added or additional players are added via trade, I guess Evans, Satin, Arm. Rodriguez, Holt, Baker and Acosta may be the most endangered.

 

III.            Summary

For the first time in years, choosing the right players to keep will be a tricky task for the Mets who have at least produced some significant depth at the upper levels of the minors recently. Maybe one or both MIL prospects we are still due to get for K-Rod shortly will need to be protected here as well, so that could make things even cloudier and difficult.

 

Beyond these interenal decisions, I am expecting significant changes this winter to the current (and thus  my projected 40-man roster) as well. But that´s subject to a different debate and not this projection. Wouldn´t be surprised to see Pelfrey, Pagan & Bay all get traded, possibly even non-tendered or released, maybe someone like F-Mart gets traded as well and I don´t think anybody is truly untouchable at this point anyway…

Considering the season he´s been having so far in 2011 - and over the past 6 years of his career - I´m pretty sure, Jose Reyes deserves and will get Carl Crawford money. Be it from the Mets or be it from some other team. And looking at his performance, not only this year but also in the healthy 2006-2008 span, that´s justified for a 28-year-old player who is having a breakout or career season, already with a 5+ WAR at the halfway point of the 2011 season.  

Sure, I´d be very happy if the team manages to limit the length to 5 or 6 years and possibly exceeds the annual value, or builds in a vesting option or two. That said, if push came to shove, I´d give Reyes the contract he has earned, not only in 2011 but also by performing well over his previous salary level in the past and also giving longterm hope to an otherwise still disenfranchised fan base. And rightfully being the or at least one key face of the franchise.

Sure, there´s risk involved. Reyes blows out his knee(s), loses his drive, gets seriously hurt in a collision, etc. However, the upside is that the Mets have a homegrown franchise player in his prime at a position of offensive scarcity where even the subpar injury-derailed 2009 / 2010 version of Reyes is still a well above average player.

If you believe Reyes is too risky to sign longterm, then don´t expect the Mets to ever sign any player to a longterm deal over 3 years again.

Plus, looking forward, even assuming the K-Rod option vests, beyond the 42.5 mio $ or so that are already shaved off this winter by not retaining Beltran, Capuano and Chris Young (plus the salary relief from Ollie Perez, Luis Castillo and Gary Matthews jr, gulp); K-Rod´s 17.5 mio $ in 2012 will be off the payroll guaranteed after 2012 and a rousing 65+ mio will be off quite possibly after 2013 when Santana, Bay, Wright, Pelfrey and RA Dickey (assuming the Mets use the club option they have on him for 2013) can all file for free agency if no extension is reached on an individual basis before or Bay´s 2014 option vests. Overall, that´s close to 120 mio $ worth of annual committments coming off within the next 3 years. Which should create enormous financial flexibility going forward, especially if the Mets use their resources in a better way.

So, for a team with a 120 mio $ or so budget going forward and - beyond the "expensive 6" -  a roster loaded with mostly youngish 1st and 2nd year players right now that won´t hit the more costly arbitration years until 2013, the obligations beyond 2013 are very small right now - and more than 70 mio $ less than what the Phillies have already committed to 4 players in their mid to late 30s for 2014 (Halladay assuming vesting option kicks in, R.Howard, C.Lee and C.Utley).

So, if you structure a Reyes deal something like this:
2012: 16 mio
2013: 18 mio
2014: 20 mio
2015: 21.5 mio
2016: 21.5 mio
2017: 21.5 mio
2018: 21.5 mio
and maybe add a 3-mio $ buyout or a club option 2019 at 21.5 mio $ again, that´s a 7-year, 143 mio $ guaranteed deal, actually exceeding Carl Crawford by a million overall - but being very manageable if you look at the big picture payroll-wise.

Again, I understand there´s risk involved. However, "Moneyball" in a large market means that you pay big for elite players, get roster fillers on the cheap (like the Mets did with Paulino, Capuano and others last winter) and try to use financial advantages in the draft and International signings to create a deep system that can a) bring on inexpensive talent (like the Mets have already managed to do in 2010/2011 with Niese, Gee, Davis, Tejada and others) and b) be a resource for interesting trade bait to acquire elite players before they hit free agency (like the Red Sox have done in the past to acquire stars like Adrian Gonzalez or Josh Beckett).

Reyes also seems like a better bet to remain at his current performance level over the next 5 to 7 years than - for example - Prince Fielder due to body size (think Mo Vaughn or Jason Giambi) or even Albert Pujols (look at his age and think A-Rod). And I´m pretty sure Pujols will get closer to an 8-year, 200 mio $ deal and Fielder will probably land a deal similar to "Crawford" money as well.

So, as cornerstone 1 of the longterm Mets, this move needs to happen. And the Mets should not play any games or be in delusional hopes for convincing Reyes to sign for 5-years, 90 mio $. That´s the contract extension Ichiro Suzuki - a somewhat similar player with less pop and a less demanding defensive position - got from Seattle after 2007 at age 34 that takes him into 2012.