TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS
Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga., Sept. 29

Coach: Derek Dooley, 11-14 in two seasons at Tennessee, 28-34 overall.
Last year: 5-7 (1-7 SEC).
Best win: An early-season 45-23 shellacking of a Cincinnati team that went on to win 10 games.
Worst loss: The season-ending 10-7 loss at Kentucky -- the Vols' first loss to the Wildcats since 1984.
Returning starters: 20 (10 offense, eight defense, two special teams).

Stock watch for 2012: Rising, albeit slightly, and if only because it's highly unlikely both the Vols' game-changing receiver (Justin Hunter) and starting QB (Tyler Bray) will lose substantial chunks of the season to injury again. Tennessee is tied for second in FBS in terms of starters returning from 2011, and having the Bray-Hunter combo back will be a huge boost for an offense that all but ground to a halt without them last year. But a surprising amount of coaching churn in the offseason, plus a general sense that Derek Dooley is fighting for his job after two losing seasons in Knoxville, makes it seem like the Vols still have their backs against the wall despite being stocked with experienced players.

Best-case scenario (from the Dawgs' perspective): A Georgia secondary that will be back at full strength following a raft of early-season suspensions goads Bray into another mistake-filled game. letting the Dawgs roll to an early lead and cruise to the finish on the legs of their running backs. Bray has as much raw talent as any QB in the conference right now, but he just hasn't managed to put it all together against the Vols' better opponents -- in two seasons, he's amassed a 143.82 overall quarterback rating but just 117.4 against Tennessee's top rivals (Florida, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina). Having both Justin Hunter and Da'Rick Rogers to throw to will help him out immensely, but the Bulldogs' front seven is nasty enough to goad him into some of those inexplicable decisions Bray's opponents have come to know and love.

Worst-case scenario: An improving Tennessee offensive line keeps Bray's jersey clean and lets him make plays to Hunter and Rogers, and the rebuilt Georgia O-line can't hold up their end of the bargain -- allowing the Vols to keep up on the scoreboard and sneak out of Athens with a close win. The UT run defense was mediocre at best last year, but you can blame part of that on the schedule -- teams like LSU, Alabama and Arkansas ran up big early leads on the Vols and then downshifted into run-heavy mode as they cruised to the finish line. Losing linemen Malik Jackson and Ben Martin hurts the Tennessee defense, but otherwise they return enough talent and experience to make life very difficult for Georgia if the Dawgs' offensive front hasn't managed to gel in the first month of the season. And while it would've been insane to think of the mighty Vols as a "trap game" 10 or even five years ago, the 2012 schedule slots them in between heated grudge matches against Vandy and South Carolina; if the Dawgs are looking ahead to the Columbia, through which the path to the SEC East title apparently runs these days, they could be vulnerable to handing Vince Dooley's boy an upset win.

VANDERBILT COMMODORES
Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga., Sept. 22

Coach: James Franklin, 6-7 in his debut season at Vanderbilt.
Last year: 6-7 (2-6 SEC).
Best win: The season finale, a 41-7 road shellacking of a Wake Forest team that went to a bowl.
Worst loss: A 27-21 overtime heartbreaker to a bad Tennessee squad they had every chance to beat.
Returning starters: 18 (nine offense, seven defense, two special teams).

Stock watch for 2012: Rising, slightly. From a team that earned what was only Vandy's fifth bowl bid in program history and put up a decent fight in nearly every team it played, the Commodores return a ton of experienced talent. That bodes well for a defense that performed quite well for the most part in 2011. What's less certain is whether the Commodore offense can put up consistent production for the first time since Jay Cutler graduated six years ago. James Franklin was hired for his offensive prowess, so expectations will be high that he can get the 'Dores' offensive attack in gear.

Best-case scenario (from the Dawgs' perspective): A defense that's still royally pissed about last year's game comes out with guns blazing and holds the 'Dores to single digits on the scoreboard. Let's face it, the Bulldog defense has double motivation to play hard against Vandy this season -- sure, Franklin's postgame dustup with Todd Grantham last season went viral in a hurry and provided the Dawgs with reams of bulletin-board material, but even if that little incident had never happened, the Bulldog D should have chips on their shoulders simply because they didn't play that well in Nashville last October (199 rushing yards at better than five yards per attempt, for starters). Everyone's talking up Georgia's defense as one of the very best in the country this season, and this should be a statement game for them. Not that that renders the offense an afterthought or anything, but if Aaron Murray can have the same kind of game he had against the Commodores last year (326 yards, three TDs and only one pick), Georgia will be in good shape.

Worst-case scenario: Vanderbilt's defense knocks the rebuilding Bulldog offensive line for a loop, stymies Aaron Murray and Isaiah Crowell, and upsets the Dawgs in Athens. Remember, Vandy's going to have chips on their shoulders about last year's game too, and whatever else you can say about Franklin, he's given the Commodores the kind of swagger few current SEC fans have seen in their lifetimes. Vandy beat Georgia in Athens six years ago, they came within a few plays of knocking off the Dawgs last year, and they'll ride into Athens in September fully believing they can win. Georgia's defense should be able to corral a Vanderbilt attack that's been inconsistent at best the last few years, but the pressure will be on the offense to minimize mistakes and put some points on the board early. If they can stun Vanderbilt with a couple quick TDs, they'll be in good shape, but a low-scoring defensive slugfest would play into the Commodores' hands in much the same way the 2006 game did.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS
Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga., Sept. 15

Coach: Carl Pelini (first year as a college head coach).
Last year: 1-11 (0-8 Sun Belt).
Best win: 38-35 over sad-sack UAB (though you could make the case they actually played better in a closer-than-expected 30-14 loss at Auburn).
Worst loss: The season finale, a 26-0 home loss to UL-Monroe and an utterly inappropriate way to conclude the coaching career of the legendary Howard Schnellenberger.
Returning starters: 15 (six offense, eight defense, one special teams).

Stock watch for 2012: Steady, though it's not like they could get much worse. The defense should get a shot in the arm from the fiery new head coach, who helped resurrect a Nebraska defense that had completely wasted away under Bill Callahan. It's the offense, though, that needs the most help after finishing next-to-last in Division I-A in scoring and dead last in total yardage last season. And that offense is attempting to move to the spread, which makes their task doubly difficult. If Pelini can coax even three wins out of this team, it'd be seen as a sign that he's got the program moving in the right direction.

Best-case scenario (from the Dawgs' perspective): The offense breaks the half-century mark and the defense pitches a shutout, giving Georgia some momentum as it heads into a battle with Vanderbilt that's suddenly become plenty heated. Both of those goals are attainable -- Georgia's running game should be able to call its shot against a way-undersized D-line that's moving to a 4-3 alignment, while the Bulldog defense should have no trouble containing an Owl offense that's basically starting from square one. If all goes as planned, there won't be a single UGA first-stringer on the field five minutes into the third quarter.

Worst-case scenario: Weary from the previous week's road trip to Missouri, the Dawgs let FAU hang around well into the second half. Whether the Dawgs are riding high after a big SEC-opening win in Columbia or smarting from an upset loss, FAU qualifies as a classic "sandwich" game, considering that the following week's matchup with Vandy has somehow turned into an emotional grudge match. Georgia isn't above playing sloppy in these sorts of early-season bodybag games, so if the rebuilt offensive line falters or the short-handed secondary gives up some big plays to the Owls' QB (whoever that ends up being), this matchup could turn into something a little different than the layup Bulldog Nation likely expects.

Continue reading this post »

Like more than a few Georgia alums and fans -- not the least of which was Dawgsports' own Kyle King -- I was quite happy to see the news this past week that UGA President Michael Adams will be resigning in a year's time. In the interest of full disclosure, I've had beef with Adams just about ever since he set foot on UGA's campus. In a speech he gave shortly after he moved into his office in 1998, he made a gratuitous (and, if memory serves, unprovoked) remark about how The Red & Black, Georgia's independent student paper, was still free, and how the value of some things never changed. As someone who considers his experience working on that publication to be one of the formative experiences of his life, not just as a journalist but as a person, that rubbed me the wrong way.

And it set the tone for much of Adams' tenure, which was typified by puzzling decisions, autocratic behavior, and a general sense that he thought the university existed to serve him, not the other way around. Not that he didn't accomplish some valuable things during his time as UGA's top dog, but every positive thing he did seemed to be balanced out by something dumb or inexplicable. And nowhere was that more true than in the realm of athletics.

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Three things to keep an eye on as the Dawgs get their spring practice under way -- and take another step toward defending their 2011 SEC East title:

1. Who's going to step up on the offensive line? Here's everything we know about the 2012 Dawgs' O-line: Dallas Lee and Chris Burnette, who started at the guard positions for most of last season, are likely to hold on to starting jobs this season. But things are so up in the air for Will Friend's unit that we're not even sure where they'll be starting -- Chris Burnette could move to center to replace Rimington Award finalist Ben Jones. Meanwhile, Lee's putative backup, Kenarious Gates, could be tapped for the all-important left tackle spot, or it could go to a true freshman (five-star recruit John Theus) for the second time in Richt's tenure. Depth, needless to say, is a concern nearly everywhere. The Dawgs have somehow soldiered through the last couple seasons without needing to dig too deep on the O-line depth chart, but if they want to make it happen again, they're going to have to start answering the big questions now.

2. Can they build some depth in the secondary? The loss of Brandon Boykin notwithstanding, a secondary consisting of Sanders Commings, Branden Smith, Shawn Williams and Bacarri Rambo seemed to leave the Dawgs in pretty good shape heading into 2012. But then the guys behind them started dropping like flies -- safety Jakar Hamilton and cornerback Jordan Love decided to transfer, and less than a month later safeties Nick Marshall and Chris Sanders were dismissed from the team. That's in addition to Commings and Smith serving suspensions for at least the first couple games of the season thanks to run-ins with the law. The situation has gotten so dicey that the coaches said breakout WR Malcolm Mitchell would spend almost all of spring at corner -- not the worst idea, considering how much playing time he saw on defense in high school, but Richt's not going to put one of his top receivers at any greater risk than he has to once the actual games start. Time to take the plastic wrap off 2011 "Dream Team" members Damian Swann, Devin Bowman and Corey Moore to see what they can do, because there's not much of a safety net otherwise.

3. Can Isaiah Crowell become a leader? The crown jewel of the '11 recruiting class got off to a fast start last season but was hobbled by injuries down the stretch (with a one-game suspension thrown in for good measure). And now his margin for error has grown thinner with a pair of blue-chip running backs, Keith Marshall and Todd Gurley, headed to Athens. Mark Richt has said a lot of positive things about Crowell's growth both as a person and a player since his tumultuous rookie season, but it's time for that growth to translate into more consistent production on the field and stronger leadership on the sideline. If it doesn't, both Marshall and Gurley will be given every opportunity to fill the void.

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

It was the weirdest, and in some ways the worst, football season we've been subjected to in some time: Jerry Sandusky, Nevin Shapiro, conferences swapping members and re-forming while the season was still being played, the ongoing Tatgate fallout at Ohio State, rematch controversy, Todd Graham, the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. So with all this going on and creating a pervasive sense that the game as we know it is irrevocably changing, it was almost comforting to see the 2011 season come to an end exactly the way a lot of us thought it would: with Alabama's defense bludgeoning its way to the Crimson Tide's second national championship in the past three years.

Obviously, the Tide sit at the top of my final SEC Power Poll ballot of the season, and I don't think I need to add a SPOILER ALERT tag when I predict they'll be at the top of everyone else's. For this year-ending ballot, I've also added quick guesses as to whether each time is a buy, sell or hold heading into 2012. Look for the full tally of all the ballots at Team Speed Kills on Friday morning.

Congratulations to the Tide, and to everyone else, keep pushing that rock up the hill . . .

Continue reading this post »

Won't somebody help me? My team is a mess!
Coach JoePa's no more, and my woes are no less.
My team has no rudder, recruiting's the pits --
I need a new coach for my woebegone Nits.

Need a new coach? I know just where to look!
Go down to the coach store and pick up a Zook.

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Most of the time, when you hear a commentator give the edge to a certain football team because he thinks "they just want it more," you're looking at a guy who doesn't actually know anything about either team and is just looking for something to say. When bowl season rolls around, though, "wanting it" takes on actual significance. In any given bowl you've got two teams who probably don't play each other much, they've had a month off since the regular season ended, and their so-called "reward" might or might not be as good as what they were shooting for when the season started. And when one team is significantly less excited to be there than the other, that's when big bowl upsets happen.

I call this the "K-State Effect" based on what happened to the Kansas State Wildcats in 1998. The Wildcats, formerly one of the doormattiest doormats in college football history, streaked to an 11-0 regular-season record and went into the Big XII championship game ranked No. 1 in the nation -- only to lose to Texas A&M in double OT. Because the once-downtrodden 'Cats had been to so few bowl games, nobody was sure their fans would travel, so K-State was passed over by bowl after bowl until they ended up in the Alamo Bowl on Dec. 29. The bummed-out Wildcats came out flat, and the unranked Purdue Boilermakers, led by some sophomore named Drew Brees, pulled off the stunner of the bowl season by beating KSU 37-34.

This pattern has popped up at least a few times in every bowl season, so I thought I'd go through the SEC's bowl games to see if any SEC teams or their opponents might be vulnerable to the K-State Effect in 2011. And I've assigned a "K-State Factor" to each game, not as a prediction of who'll win but as an estimate of how much the motivation edge will be worth in terms of points.

Continue reading this post »

It's come to the attention of Bulldog Nation that some of you, particularly those of the Gamecock persuasion, are a little bit miffed at how the SEC reshuffled its 2012 football schedules to account for the additions of Texas A&M and Missouri. Specifically, you're up in arms about how a road date with Alabama was taken off Georgia's 2012 slate to make room for a game at Mizzou, welcoming the Tigers to their new conference.

Your concerns have been noted, and our recommended course of action is for you to -- how to put this politely? -- suck it up and stop acting like such whiny babies. Or Georgia Tech fans.

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

From the hype, the TV exposure and the sky-high ticket prices of the SEC Championship Game, we can infer that the conference's 20th annual title match is already captivating interest well outside the Southeast, and certainly outside the Georgia and LSU fan bases. But what if you're one of those casual non-affiliated observers who wants to take in Division I-A's ZOMG AWESOMEST conference title game with something more passionate than an outsider's clinical objectivity?

Below I've compiled a handy crib sheet for those who don't have any skin in the game, but would like some, if that's not too much trouble. It should help you take your existing college football biases and translate them into a firm rooting interest one way or the other, one that might just have you screaming as loudly and profanely at your television set as the rest of us will be.

Continue reading this post »