With the second season upon us, I thought it would be fun to provide a clearinghouse for predictions, guarantees, and other bold statements.  For example, here's mine:

• The A's will make it past the division series for the first time in the Beane era.
• Thomas will be good, but Chavez is going to have a monster postseason and will be our MVP.
• Harden will win the clinching game in each series that we play
• Saarloos will be the bullpen MVP
• Kendall will hit a home run in the ALCS
• Feel free to add your own, or argue with mine :).

No witty intro, just saw this story on the Bee and it took me by surprise.

http://www.sacbee.com/content/sports/story/14255034p-15070448c.html

In short, "He hugged his teammates, shook hands with the coaching staff and walked away from the team . . . Watson is leaving the River Cats to play in Japan. . . Watson played in only 34 big-league games since being selected by the Montreal Expos in the 16th round of the 2002 free-agent draft. But Watson has flourished in the Pacific Coast League since the A's claimed him off waivers before the 2004 season. . . "

Looks as though he got tired of waiting for his break with the A's, I wish him the best of luck (and it looks like the Free Matt Watson committee needs a new target-Jeremy Brown anyone?).  Feel free to add to the linkage, discuss how the vagaries of talent and the well-timed hot streak can lead to a career as a fourth OFer, or to gnash your teeth and pull your hair over Duke's trip to the DL.

So, with the A's season coming to an early close next week, I've been thinking about the season that was and trying to identify one moment that could be considered the turning point, for better or worse.  You can make arguments for Crosby's return, Harden's second injury, the acquisition of Jay Payton, but given the last few days, I think the turning point was the august 31st game v. the Angels when Chavy came a stiff breeze shy of a walk-off home run against K-rod.  Thoughts?  Pick your turning point, I'm curious what others think.  Here's to 2006!

In Baseball America's Daily Dish:

"School's back, at least in some parts of the country. Once 2005 draft picks attend their first college class, teams can no longer negotiate with them. South Carolina's recruiting class improved as Justin Smoak and Reese Havens both began their freshman year this morning. Smoak, a switch-hitting first baseman from Goose Creek, S.C., slipped out of the first three rounds but still turned down a signing bonus approaching $1 million from the Athletics, who picked him in round 16. Havens, a shortstop/third baseman from Charleston drafted by the Rockies in the 29th round, passed on a bonus in or more than $1 million."

Well, it was worth a 16th round pick, it's just a shame that they couldn't close the deal, especially when it seemed like they weren't very far apart on money.  Do people think Billy was serious about wanting him as a player, or do you think he was looking at him as a trading chip in the near future and didn't want to pay him too much?  I think the A's draft class is still strong even without Smoak, but this drops it from Great to Solid until we find out who among the HS fireballers is for real (lansford sure looks good so far, not really a fireballer, but you get the idea).  Thoughts on the draft?  Should the A's have coughed up another $100k for Mr. Smoak?

Kind of morbid, but ESPN just put out that Torii Hunter tore a tendon, possibly his Achilles, in his left ankle and will miss at least the month of August.  This is obviously a blow to the Twins hopes of chasing down the wild card.  Even though he's had an off year offensively, no one on the team can replace his defense in CF.  Do you think the Twins will now make a serious run at Mike Cameron?  Or do they stand pat and hope for the best?  This could also impact that ginormous Ramirez trade being talked about.  Anything that gets him out of the AL (and if he is going to the Mets, out of contention) is fine by me.  I can't be happy about this b/c he got hurt, but this will seriously hamper Minnesota's ability to challenge for the Wild Card.

Today's Sac Bee:  http://www.sacbee.com/content/sports/baseball/oak_athletics/story/13316365p-14158476c.html

Other than the Blez quotation at the end, this article kind of got me thinking about the A's moving to Sacto.  I know this has been hashed and rehashed several times, but I'm now beginning to wonder if the plans for a smaller stadium, Wolff citing the lack of A's corporate support as a factor in that move (one of the arguments against moving the team was the lack of large corporations in Sacramento), and the related comments about wanting to expand the season ticket base are preludes to an A's move in the near future.  Thoughts?

I was wondering if any ANers would be there when the A's come to Minnesota at the beginning of August.  I'm going on either Tuesday or Wednesday night, and the presence of another A's fan could help me decide. Here's hoping that series will have big playoff implications.

Extra characters . . . . . . . . . . .

A though occurres to me while reading a rant about Joe Morgan over at MinorLeagueBall.  We talk about some of the schmucks they have writing for ESPN.com (Kruk, Morgan, etc.)-how much of that do you think is their own writing and how much of it is handed off to the intern?  I've never been 'behind the scenes' at a place like ESPN, so I don't know how often the process is used.  I also don't watch BT or Sportscenter enough to know if the writing 'sounds' like them, so I thought I'd throw it out there.  Might this explain some of Joe's irrational moments (Dissing moneyball when he's never read it, in particular), or is he just a wacky old coot?

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=morgan_joe&id=2073496

Somehow manages to advocate a stat-head idea (saves are overrated, use your best reliever in the critical situation) and turn it into a hankering for the good old days when men were men and pitchers threw until their labrums caught fire.  Bizzare.

Just finished reading Aces, thought I would start a diary for discussion.  My overall impression was good.  As someone who reads every scrap of A's news he can get his hands on, there was not as much earth-shattering material in there as there would be for the less rabid fan, but I thought it was a crystal clear window into the kind of life and times of Tim, Mark, and Barry specifically and big league pitchers in general. Really liked the game lines in the back, that will probably be the part of the book I will come back to again and again in the future.  Thumbs up to Mychael, but when I see it on my shelf in 5 years I'm sure I'll be thinking 'What might have been . . . . '

Special moments:

-GnGG is not going to like the section where Barry discusses Alyssa Milano, but since they have broken up I'm sure it's all good

-Special irony to Hudson's admiration of the Cardinals

-In the beginning Mychael mentions how the life of a beat writer has changed in the past thirty years.  I think the way his access translated into this story will be very popular and could help bring the balance back towards the old-school ways (at least in certain situations)

-Kind of cathartic reliving last season through the book, still remember Mecir coming into the game against the Angels, remember watching Hudson get hammered against Boston in September, glad I had time to get through it all in one day.

-The discussions about Peterson were particularly interesting, my hasty conclusion would be that he is a young/inexperienced pitcher's coach, a development type.

I'd love to hear what everyone else thinks.  Also got my prospect handbook in the same shipment, so it has been a great baseball weekend for me :).

So funny, from A's site:  

Thanks, Dad: Macha went old school on the players he led to Tucson on Saturday, asking the bus driver to stop after the game so he could treat his troops to some ice cream.

"He thought I was fooling around, but I wasn't," Macha said.

So after the driver stopped, the players -- in uniform -- filed out of the bus and into a Dairy Queen. The scene, straight out of Little League, set Macha back about $50.

"I got the biggest Blizzard I could get," said rookie outfielder Nick Swisher. "Like a $7 Blizzard. Chocolate chip cookie dough."

Noted Macha: "The people that ordered Blizzards were a pain in the [butt]."

Yet Swisher, whose confidence borders on comical, might be in line for a few more Blizzards. Macha has vowed to take the brash youngster with him whenever he has to travel for a split-squad game.

"I have to keep an eye on that one," Macha said. "Even if it's just for my own entertainment."

Nice to see Macha has a sense of humor, think he is starting to feel comfortable as a manager?

Story in sacbee about Zito's offseason preparation:  

http://www.sacbee.com/content/sports/baseball/oak_athletics/story/12367250p-13223458c.html

Touches on several things mentioned earlier here (is Zito a flake, problems he's been having, etc.).  I for one think Zito could have a great year-he seems to respond really well to pressure.  Perhaps the loss of his big three buddies will help him stay focused throughout the season and avoid the slumps that have plagues him the past two years

http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00002779.shtml

More speculation than anything else, but it made me feel a little bit better about being an A's fan.  I just wanted to post the link but I need 300 characters, so I will add a question:  Do you all think the Zito of last year was just unlucky (as the link suggests), or do you think there was any merit to all of the pitch tipping and fastball locating stories of last year?

Having had a few hours to digest this (logged onto ESPN and saw a picture of Mulder in a Cardinal's cap-not the best way to find out), I'm still not sure how this will end up, but I think I've come up with the worst possible outcome:  Crosby has a terrific sophomore year, matching his power production and improving the rest of his stats across the board;  Swisher, Garcia, and Street lock horns in a three way race for ROY; Durazo proves 2004 was not a fluke, hitting .340 with 34 homers and 112 RBIs; Harden becomes the No. 1 Starter, going 22-4 with a 2.31 ERA and leading the league in Ks; and Chavez finally breaks out, winning his first MVP award with a monster .320/.440/.570 season, hitting 46 HRs and driving in 137.  The A's win the wild card and advance to the World Series, only to be shut down in Game 7 by Atlanta ace Tim Hudson and lose the series 4-3.

Ken Rosenthal is suggesting that the Yankees should trade for Hudson:

http://msn.foxsports.com/story/3109094

I thought the NY Post was the only paper stupid enough to come up with rumors that lame.

Well, enough mourning over what might have been, it's time to look ahead to 2005.  My thoughts on the roster for next year:

Bullpen- The bullpen will look nothing like the 2004 incarnation.  I expect Jairo Garcia and Huston Street will both be in the big league pen next year, along with Duke and Rhodes (unless they can find any takers).  I think they'll resign Bradford b/c other than a decrease in his strikeout rate, his numbers don't point to a systematic decline (and he'll be cheap).  I fully expect that Dotel will either be traded or non-tendered given the $5 mil or so he'd make in arbitration.  I think Rincon is signed through '05 (conflicting reports on MLB site). I believe that that makes a full bullpen (Doubt hammond will be resigned, possibly add Lehr or Mabeus from Sacramento)

Starters-Redman is gone if Billy can get a sack of baseballs for him (shouldn't be too hard given his road numbers), Blanton is in.  I don't think trading Zito would be a good idea b/c if nothing else his value is very low right now.  If Beane can turn Barry into a young, cheap power hitting first basemen or outfielder, I'd be scared but understanding.  But, I think it would be better to wait on a trade like that until the trade deadline when hitters will cost less and Barry will be worth more.  One crazy idea-Zito for Piazza:  the Mets would have to take a lot of Piazza's salary, but if he were DHing his numbers would probably go way up.  

Lineup-Durazo has probably hit himself out of Oakland, which is sad but inevitable.  I'm sure Billy will find someone to DH, whether it be Hatteberg, Dan Johnson, or whoever.  As for the subject of Dye, I don't think signing him for longer than two years would be a good idea, and I'm sure someone will offer that.  Heard rumors at the traqding deadline that the White Sox want to get rid of Carlos Lee, that could be a good move.  I really like what I've seen of Swisher so far, but I'm not sure he wouldn't be better served as a fourth outfielder/pinch hitter/backup 1b for another year.  For one thing, it would give the A's an actual threat off of the bench, as well as allowing them to actually give players a day off (see Hatteberg's september numbers).  Mcmillon and Mclemore are both gone, I think Scutaro would be a good backup 2b and insurance in case Ellis isn't ready in April (though it sounds like he will be).  Byrnes will no doubt be more expensive next year, but I think it'll be worth it-he's a spark, the only real base-stealing threat, and a player heading into the best offensive years of his career.  I'm sure Melhuse will be a backup again, and I'd like it if we were able to resign Damian Miller.  Kielty was a waste of bench space this year, but unless Billy can find another taker I think we are stuck with him for another year.

So, here's what it might look like:

SP: Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Harden, Blanton

RP:  Street, Garcia, Rhodes, Bradford, Duke, Rincon, Lehr (?)

Starters:

C: Damian Miller
1B:  Hatteberg
2B: Mark Ellis
SS: Bobby Crosby
3B: Chavez
DH: Dan Johnson
LF: Byrnes
CF: Kotsay
RF: Dye or trade acquisition

Bench: Swisher, Kielty, Scutaro, Melhuse, Koonce (?)

Given continued development from Crosby and Chavez and a better hitting and fielding bench, I think the lineup could actually improve next year.  As for the pitching, we will just have to cross our fingers and hope the last month was a terrible nightmare.