Well, I had my first fantasy draft last night.  Some of you may remember my earlier plea for help:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/3/9/194922/4033

I want to thank everybody for the great advice.  Want to see what I did with it?  OK, I'll tell you anyway!  I drew the #5 draft slot.  I actually preferred a middle spot in a snake draft, although in retrospect, #3 might have been better.  More on that later......

Anyway, you already know about the lousy hand I was dealt in the keeper portion, so I won't bore you with all that again.  Here's my draft list with comments:

1.  Magglio Ordonez-I figured Miggy Cabrera and probably Grady Sizemore would be gone.  I was hoping for Beej Upton, but he went at #3.  Ordonez was my second choice with Carlos Lee my third.  Can't really complain here.
2.  Robinson Cano-  Upton, Cano and Brian Roberts were the class of a very thin 2B group.  Upton and Roberts were gone.  As a .300/20 HR/90/90 guy, Cano wouldn't be bad as an OF.  Plus, he still seems to be on the upward part of his career trajectory.  I had targeted Cano here and grabbed him.
3.  Ryan Zimmerman-  This may have been a reach, but I didn't think there was a pitcher worth taking this high and the dropoff to the next tier of 3B was pretty steep.  Zim is still young, on an upward trajectory, and I think the new ballpark will help him.
4.  Javier Vasquez-  I was going to take  Joe Mauer here, but momentarily lost track of my draft board, got disoriented and ended up having to make a hurried, last second pick.  Vasquez was on my short list for first pitcher to take and wouldn't have been available in round 5.
5.  Brian McCann-  Catching was very thin at the top.  The 3 worth considering were Martin, Mauer, McCann and possibly Salty.  Marting and Mauer were gone.  I wanted Mauer, but McCann might turn out to be a better choice?
6.  Matt Cain-  A run on pitchers had started.  Tim LIncecum was gone.  I had vowed to stay away from Giants pitchers because I don't think they will get very many wins.  I had a few decent choices here, but caved in and couldn't pass on my homeboy.
7.  Brad Hawpe-  I was targeting Delmon Young, Corey Hart and Hunter Pence here.  There had been a run on young OF's and they were all gone.  Hawpe was the fallback guy on my draft board.  He probably has less upside, but could be the best of that bunch this year.
8.  Yovani Gallardo-  I was a bit surprised Gallardo fell this far.  He may start the season on the DL, but the upside is so great, I'm happy to stash him for  a couple of weeks.
9.  Chad Billingsley-  There are several Dodger fans in my league.  I thought Billz was their best pitcher in the second half last season.  I was shocked that he was still on the board.  One of my candidates for  a huge breakout.
10.  Matt Garza-  I was going to take a closer here and they were dropping like flies, but I was surprised Garza fell this far and couldn't pass.
11.  BJ Ryan-  I might have screwed up on the closers, but I just couldn't stop myself from loading up on young, high ceiling starters.  Ryan is coming off TJ and has to compete with Accardo for the closer role in Toronto, but from everything I've read, he will be the closer there if healthy.  If not, well, I'm probably not going to win many H2H's in saves anyway.
12.  Brian Wilson- Another Giants homeboy.  Wilson looks like he's definitely winning the closer's job in ST.  He as the stuff to be lights out if he can control the strike zone.  He was on my target list as a late closer pick, so this one worked out.
13.  Kevin Gregg- Not a fan, but he did get something like 47 saves with good peripherals last year.  I needed another closer and he was the only one left!  Probably at least as good a bet as Borowski or Chad Cordero who went earlier.
14.  Billy Butler-  This is my favorite pick of my draft.  I had him targeted from the beginning, and I guessed right.  My friend told me he would have taken him in this round if I hadn't.
15.  Justin Upton-  Strictly an upside pick here, but what an upside!  Milledge and Maybin were taken earlier.  I probably would have taken Upton even if they were still available.  Worst case scenario, I stash him on the bench and decide whether to make him a keeper in the offseason.
16.  Yunel Escobar-  I thought I needed a multiple position IF as one of my utility guys.  Escobar is picking up where he left off last year in spring training and even showing some HR power.  I figure he's my SS if Tejada shrivels up from steroid withdrawl.
17.  Ian Kennedy- Now we're getting to the bench players.   I guess I have a fetish for young SP's.  Will Kennedy beat out Mussina for the Yanks rotation?  Does anyone else think he just might put up better numbers than Hughes or Chamberalain?
18.  JR Towles-  I was originally planning to let catcher slide and go for one of Soto, Towles or Suzuki late.  I ended up taking McCann early, but I like Towles upside and don't mind stashing him on the bench.  BTW, Soto was picked a few slots earlier.
19.  Chase Headley-  I guess he's not a lock to make the Padres 25 man roster, but he's absolutely tearing up the Cactus League and they are going to have to make room for him, right?  Right?
20.  Ubaldo Jimenez-  The love affair with young starters continues.  With all the closers taken, I figure I can pick up non-closer relievers off the scrap heap any day.
21.  Kevin Correia-  I was determined to take Correia somewhere.  I thought he would be my #5 starter, but here he is at the end of my bench!  After Jonathan Sanchez' start yesterday,  Sanchez might have been a better pick here.

So here's my final roster, including the players I inherited:

C    Brian McCann
1B  Carlos Pena
2B  Robinson Cano
3B  Ryan Zimmerman
SS   Miguel Tejada
OF  Magglio Ordonez
OF  Brad Hawpe
OF  Aaron Rowand
IF   Billy Butler
UT Justin Upton
UT Yunel Escobar
SP  Javier Vasquez
SP  Matt Cain
SP  Chad Billingsley
SP  Yovani Gallardo
SP  Matt Garza
RP  BJ Ryan
RP  Brian Wilson
RP  Kevin Gregg
P    Orlando Hernandez
P    Hideki Okajima
B    JR Towles
B    Chase Headley
B    Ian Kennedy
B    Ubaldo Jimenez
B    Kevin Correia

So how do you think Dr B did in his first draft?  I was starting from a pretty big deficit from the keepers I inherited.  I figured I have no chance this year anyway.  My goal was to take young players with upside and try to improve my keeper list for next year.  

Poll

What Grade Would You Give Dr B In His First Fantasy Draft?

24%

A

15 votes

40%

B

25 votes

24%

C

15 votes

6%

D

4 votes

4%

F

3 votes

62 votes | Poll has closed

www.rotoworld.com

KC pitcher Jimmy Gobble had a cactus thorn removed from his big toe.  He apparently accidently kicked a cactus while playing a round of golf in Arizona.  He felt the pain but continued normal activities including pitching.  "They said it was almost an inch, 3/4 of an inch long," said pitching coach Bob McClure, "how he pitched with that, I'll never know."

Eeeeowww!!!!

I'm finally going to try my hand at fantasy baseball this year.  A friend at work talked me into it.  I'm not looking for advice on specific players.  I'm pretty comfortable with that.  I just am uncomfortable with general draft strategy since I've never done it before.

Here are the basics of the league:  10 teams. MLB only. Mixed AL/NL, 26 players/team plus 2 DL slots.  H2H.  Scoring is basic:  BA, Runs, HR, RBI, SB's, W, ERA, K, WHIP, Saves.  Notice no BB's, OBP, non-HR XBH's.  Each team can carry over 5 players from the previous year, 3 hitters and 2 pitchers. I'm inheriting the weakest team by a good margin:  Aaron Rowand, Miggy Tejada, Carlos Pena, El Duque, and Hideki Okajima.  Draft is this coming Friday, March 14.  

Here's what I've done so far:  

1.  I ranked enough players at each position so that each team can pick two players before me and I would still get somebody I could live with.
2.  I then ranked a top 10 ignoring position(mostly OF's) and then mixed it up but still tried to stay approximately in the order of overall value.

OF is the strongest at the top, but relatively thin.

SP is only fair at the top, and also very thin since each team needs 5 SP's.

3B is pretty good at the top and quite deep.

2B is weak and thin.

Catcher is weak at the top, but fairly deep.

RP is strong and deep.

My problem:  To fill out the 10 teams, a total of 210 players will be drafted. My list goes only to #160!  The remaining players are about 1/2 of the RP's and flotsam/jetsam from the master list.

My question:  Should I stick with my list and try to expand it to at least 210, or should I try to frontload with OF's, and SPs(I'm most worried about coming up short on SP's) once I get past the first round or two?

The battle for positions in the Giants bullpen is heating up and getting interesting.  So far, there have been 3 significant events shaping the bullpen:

1.  The emergence of Merkin Valdez as a potential dominant 7'th inning/setup/closer-in-waiting.  I assume Valdez needs no introduction to this crowd.  He's coming off TJ surgery and is reportedly hitting 96 MPH with consistency so far.  Surprisingly, he has also displayed a decent slider and changeup which allowed him to freeze 3 batters in an inning two days ago for called third strikes.
2.  The collapse and option of Randy Messenger.  Messenger hasn't been right since he broke his left(non-pitching hand) striking the dugout/clubhouse wall last season.  He was getting rocked in ST, and possibly more importantly, was showing a lot of very bad body language on the mound.  The demotion came as a surprise this early in ST.
3.  Noah Lowry's injury.  Lowry's absence has created an opening in the rotation.  The three logical candidates would seem to be Jonathan Sanchez, Pat Misch and Brad Hennessey.  Hennessey got a start today, but Bochy insisted that he is not a candidate for the rotation.  He was just filling in for Tim Lincecum who's start was pushed back due to a mild groin strain.  Sanchez has been very shaky so far, and appeared to be headed down  to Fresno himself, but he pitched halfway decent today allowing just an unearned run in 3 IP.  Misch gets the start tomorrow in what is being advertised as an audition for the rotation.

Here's where it stands right now:

1.  Brian Wilson is the closer.  He's been a bit inconsistent, but it looks like Bochy is going to see him through into the season barring a total collapse.
2.  Tyler Walker is the setup man.  He can close if Wilson collapses, but would probably be better in the 8'th inning role.
3.  Valdez looks like the 7'th inning guy.  In fact, Bochy has started running Valdez, Walker and Wilson out in order on the same day to set up that rhythm.
4. The emergence of Merkin Valdez would seem to push Brad Hennessey back into a middle/long man role for which he is well suited but might be miffed that it is a demotion.  He would also seem to be a logical choice to take Lowry's spot in the rotation, but it seems Misch and Sanchez are ahead on the depth chart.
5.  Despite some bluster about 11 pitchers early in ST, Bochy is talking more about 12 now, not a surprise.  If Wilson, Walker, Valdez and Hennessey are locks, that leaves 3 more spots up for grabs among Steve Kline, Jack Taschner, Erick Threets, Vinny Chulk, the loser of the competition for the rotation, and several others.

Taschner and Threets have pitched fairly well.  Interestingly, Taschner, who has two seasons of MLB experience, has an option left, but Threets is out of options.

Steve Kline has absolutely stunk up the place.  I imagine he is a lock due to his veteran savvy, but it's real hard to swallow him blocking a more deserving younger player.

Vinny Chulk is recovering from Burger's Disease, a circulatory disease caused by smokeless tobacco.  He started out shaky, but is starting to put together a string of strong outings.  If he continues to pitch well, Bochy will want his veteran presence on the roster.

Jose Capellan, the rule 5 draftee, seems to be pitching himself back to the Boston organization allowing runs in almost every appearance so far.

A name to watch is Barolome Fortunato.  He is a hard throwing RHP, NRI, who has pitched very well, including pitching his way out of a no out bases loaded jam today with a run scoring GIDP and another groundout.  I expect he will start the season in Fresno and ride the Southwest shuttle to SF.

Another interesing development in the last few days is a couple of dominant outings by Bill Sadler with none of the poor control that has dogged him in the past.  Sadler probably also has no shot at making the big club out of ST, but he could be moving up the depth chart for in-season callups.

Pat Misch had a good outing today for the Giants in their spring training game against the Seattle Mariners.  He was their 3'rd pitcher of the game after Tim Lincecum's 2 2/3 shutout innings.  Misch's line for the day:  2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K.  

The reason I bring up Misch is he is the kind of prospect you almost never hear brought up, even in "sleeper" lists.  Yet, he stands a good chance of making the major league club out of spring training either as a #5 starter or long relief man.

Pat Misch, BD- 08/08/1981 was drafted in round 7, 2003 after an undistinguished college career at Western Michigan.  He's a LHP with nice size at 6'2", 170 lbs(I think he's a bit stockier than that now).

In his first pro summer for Salem-Keizer in the NWL, he went 7-5, 2.18, 86.2 IP, 20 BB, 61 K.  I thought he was the best pitcher on that Salem-Keizer team.  Apparently the Giants thought so too, and promoted him directly to AA Norwich for 2004.  He pitched very well there too:  7-6, 3.06, 159 IP, 35 BB, 123 K.

Promoted to AAA Fresno the following spring, he struggled for the first and really only time of his minor league career:  3-9, 6.35, 102 IP, 40 BB, 69 K.  Note that his K's took a slight dip, but the big difference was in the BB/9.  He was demoted back to AA where he regained his footing:  4-2, 3.52, 61.1 IP, 7 BB, 43 K.  

It would be easy to dismiss him at that point as a pitcher with limited upside who reached his ceiling in AAA.  For awhile, it looked like the Giants might agree as he was sent back to AA again to start the 2006 season.  Once again, he pitched well there:  5-4, 2.26, 103.2 IP, 24 BB, 79 K.   He was given another crack at AAA just after midseason and did much better this time:  4-2, 4.02, 65 IP, 11 BB, 57 K.  He was rewarded with a 1 inning cup of coffee in September.

The Giants sent him to the AFL that fall and had him work on pitching out of the bullpen with mixed results.  As you might expect from someone who had started up to that point, he tended to do better if he started an inning than if he came in with runners already on base.

Back in Fresno to start the 2007 season, Misch pitched mostly out of the bullpen in 2 and 3 inning stints and thrived:  2-5, 2.29, 66.2 IP, 19 BB, 74 K!  Called up toward the end of a disastrous season for the Giants, Misch acquitted himself well again earning Bruce Bochy's respect as one of the few relievers who came in and threw strikes.  His final MLB line was 0-4, 4.24, 40.1 IP, 12 BB, 26 K, but he came into his final start with a 2.75 ERA which ballooned to the 4.24 when he gave up 8 ER in 4.2 IP,

Misch's reputation is that he has 4 solid pitches, all of which he can throw for strikes, but no single "out" pitch.  BA calls his fastball "mid 80's", but I recall seeing it mostly 86-89 watching the radar readings on TV.  He added a cutter somewhere along the way enabling him to get inside on RH hitters.  He compliments the two fastballs with a slow curve and above average changeup that he throws on any count.

I think Misch will have a modestly successful MLB career.  He seems to have more starter's stuff, but has pitched more successfully out of the bullpen so far.  His ceiling is probably a #4 starter on an average team, but there are pitchers who have had long careers and made a lot of money with less.  For now, he has an excellent chance of sticking with the Giants bullpen as a long man with an outside chance at a #5 starter role if there is a trade, somebody gets hurt or Correia and Sanchez continue to pitch poorly.

Here's a picture of him pitching today:

Aw dadburnit!  I can't seem to get the right link!  Just go to giantsjottings.blogspot.com and scroll down a few pics and you'll find Pat Misch as well as a nice pics of Merkin Valdez and Tim Lincecum pitching today as well.

Sorry if this is taking a good thing too far, but I wanted to post some video links for Coldplay this morning so John could check them out.  Unfortunately, my work computer has youtube.com blocked.  

The first video is extraordinary, more for a couple of amazing dancers than for the music, but it gives you a nice sample of Coldplay music and a visual of the group too:

The Hardest Part

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKRZv6NGjdc

Next are live versions of 3 of my favorite Coldplay songs:

Fix You starts out kind of slow and meandering, but has that killer chorus at the end.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQT_e_lHIrU

The Scientist has a nice chord progression and interesting lyrics.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7OQSl4FdJE

I remember Yellow because at the concert I went to, they released a bunch of yellow balloons from the rafters for a different visual effect.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZV3fdEBWTN0

Again, sorry for the intrusion.  Promise I won't post any more of these except as a response in one of John's music diaries.

Potential #1 overall draft pick, Vandy 3B Pedro Alvarez missed some games over the weekend with wrist pain.  Well, it turns out he has a fracture in the wrist.  BA writeup doesn't say which wrist or which bone.  Aren't these usually hamates?

Fillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfiller.

Arrgh!!!!!!!!

Dustin Ackley is only a sophomore at North Carolina, but he has to be the odds on favorite to be the #1 overall draft pick in 2009.  Coming off a tremendous freshman season in which he went .402/.448/.591(OK, I just know somebody is going to say his OBP is BA dependent!), Ackley went on an absolute rampage opening weekend for college baseball.  All he did was go 10 for 14 with a double and 3 HR's!  What a monster!

The college season got underway yesterday.  There were a lot of rainouts, especially in southern California where a lot of games were scheduled.  

Brian Matusz got roughed up by Tony Gwynn's SD State squad giving up 8 H and 6 Runs in 4.2 IP.

It was a tough night for a couple of other top college pitchers with Preston Guilmet of Arizona and Mike Stutes of Oregon State allowing 4 runs in 4 IP each.

The star of the evening had to be Lance Lynn, a huge(6'7", 260 lb) RHP from Ole Miss:  5 IP, 2 H,  0 R, 1 BB, 12 K.  

Aaron Crow of Missouri pitched well:  5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K.

Other notable performances came from:

Danny Farquar, La-Lafayette- 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 9 K.

Tyson Ross, Cal- 5 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K.

Shooter Hunt, Tulane- 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K.

Scott Gorgan, UC Irvine- 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K.

The top pitchers seem to be mostly ahead of the hitters at this stage:  Pedro Alvarez- 0 for 2, Yonder Alonso- 0 for 4, and Kyle Russell- 0 for 2 failed to get hits.   Brett Wallace went 1 for 4, BB.  Petey Paramore, AZ State C was probably the hitting star of the night going 2 for 3 with 2 doubles and a BB.

There were several outstanding performances by sophomore pitchers:

Ryan Berry, Rice- 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K.

Kendal Volz, Baylor- 8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K.

Mike Ford, UCSB- 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 11 K.

Steve Kalush, Santa Clara- 6.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 13 K.

Nate Garcia, Santa Clara- 7.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K.

Steve Strasbrug, SD State- 8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K.  Strasburg was going against USD and Brian Matusz.  He was featured in BA's "Marquee Matchup" yesterday.  He reportedly has touched triple digits with the heater in the past.

Seems like we see a lot of diaries asking for breakout prospects, prospects who's stock will rise dramatically over the next season.  Well, BA lists a breakout prospect for each team in their Prospect Handbook.  Though you all might be interested:

ARI:  Tyrell Worthington, OF
ATL:  Tyler Flowers, 1B/C
BAL:  Tyler Henson, SS
BOS:  Will Middlebrooks, SS
CHI:  Robert Hernandez, RHP
CWS:  Brian Omagrosso, RHP
CIN:  Kyle Lotskar, RHP
CLE:  Sung-Wei Tseng, RHP
COL:  Michael McKenry, C
DET:  Wilkin Ramiriz, OF
FLA:  Logan Morrison, 1B
HOU:  Chris Johnson, 3B/1B
KC:   Jose Duarte, OF
LAA:  Trevor Reckling, LHP
LAD:  Javy Guerra, RHP
MIL:  Zach Braddock, LHP
MIN:  Deibinson Romero, 3B
NYM:  Greg Veloz, 2B
NYY:  Mark Melancon, RHP
OAK:  Josh Horton, SS
PHI:  Freddy Galvis, SS
PIT:  Marcus Davis, OF
STL:  Kyle McClellen, RHP
SD:   Raynor Contreras, 3B/2B
SF:   Waldis Joaquin, RHP
SEA:  Carlos Peguero, OF
TB:   Alex Cobb, RHP
TEX:  Christian Santana, C
TOR:  Kyle Ginley, RHP
WAS:  Hassan Pena, RHP

There has been a lot of discussion about an appropriate nickname for Angel Villalona with some folks objecting to the commonly used "Big V."  While I don't share those sentiments, I thought of another possibility.  Take a look at these two pictures:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=c/a/2006/09/26/SPG4MLCNCV1.DTL&o=2

http://www.geocities.com/Colosseum/Field/9257/OCepeda.htm

I think there is a helluva similarity here.  How about bestowing Cha Cha's old nickname on the new kid who looks and plays so much like him?

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=1&nav=messages&webtag=ml-giants&tid=96839

Lots of new faces this year.  Overall, our farm system is much younger and, I think, deeper and better than in recent memory.  Most of the high ceiling talent is in the lowest levels of the minors, but is also very young in age.

I had to leave off a lot of names that would have made it easily in prior years, but just ran out of room this year.  I listed those in a postscript honorable mention.

It was so hard to put a value on perennially injured or underperforming players like Eddy M-E that I created a separate postscript for them.

I also added P.S. for a few DSL prospects who caught my eye even though it's probably premature to list them in a Top Prospects list.

What do you think?

There's a nice blog entry by Grant over on

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com

Be sure and click onto the "read more" link at the bottom of the post for an excellent interview with Deric McKamey, author of Minor League Baseball Analyst.  Some highlights:

Bumgarner has two good fastballs.  

He's not as high on Tim Alderson as Bumgarner.

He thinks Angel V can stay at 3B, but says he will hit so well it won't matter where he plays.

Thinks Marcus Sanders is still a prospect(I tend to disagree with this one).

Read it and let me know what you think.  Thanks.

Once again, grades are just one fan's opinion and are based on performance, not future ceiling.  I do consider HS vs college draftees and level of play.  Comparisons of performance between different levels is difficult and quite subjective.

31.  Preston Mattingly, LAD, SS/2B.  Low A:  .210/.251/.297.  Grade D.
32.  Pedro Beato, Bal, RHP.  Low A:  7-8, 4.05, 142.1 IP, 59 BB, 106 K, GO/AO= 1.55.  Grade C.
33.  Emmanuel Burriss, SF, SS.  High A:  .165/.237/.180, 17 SB, 3 CS.  Low A:  .321/.374/.381, 51 SB, 15 CS.  AFL:  .365/.450/.423, 8 SB, 1 CS.  Grade B.  This was a tough one to grade.  Does Burriss' good AFL showing make up for his poor start in High A?
34.  Brooks Brown, Arizona, RHP.  High A:  6-3, 2.81, 80 IP, 23 BB, 74 K, GO/AO= 1.75.  AA:  4-4, 3.66, 66.1 IP, 36 BB, 54 K, GO/AO= 1.45.  Grade B.  Walks hurt after move up to AA and he appears to be the type of pitcher who needs good control.  Still, moving up the ladder nicely.
35.  Kyler Burke, SD, OF.  Low A:  .211/.305/.268.  SS:  .254/.340/.446.  HWBL:  .333/.402/.483 in 87 AB's.  Grade C.  HWBL tends to be a pitching dominant league.  Is Burke a breakout candidate for next season?
36.  Chris Coghlan, Fla, 2B.  Low A:  .325/.419/.534.  High A:  .200/.277/.331.  AFL:  .329, 407/.425.  Grade B.  Again, does the AFL showing make up for the weak High A numbers?
37.  Adrian Cardenas, Phi, SS.  Low A:  .295/.354/.417, 20 SB, 7 CS.  Grade B+.  You don't hear much about Cardenas, but he is doing some good things, especially if he's a future SS.
38.  Cory Rasmus, ATL, RHP.  Rookie:  0-0, 8.59, 7.1 IP, 5 BB, 3 K.  Grade Incomplete.  Out with shoulder surgery.  Can he hit like his brother?
39.  David Huff, Cle, LHP.  High A:  4-2, 2.72, 59.2 IP, 15 BB, 46 K.  AFL:  1-1, 6.06, 16.1 IP, 3 BB, 15 K.  Grade B.  Good showing in high A  cut short by some sort of injury.  Appeared healthy in Arizona.
40.  Kris Johnson, Bos, LHP.  High A:  9-7, 5.56, 136 IP, 57 BB, 100 K, GO/AO=1.31.  Grade C.  Gets some sort of credit for hanging in there in nightmarish pitching conditions in Lancaster, CA.
41.  Joba Chamberlain, NYY, RHP.  Minors:  9-2, 2.45, 88.1 IP, 27 BB, 135 K!  MLB:  2-0, 0.38, 24 IP, 6 BB, 34 K.  Grade A!  What an inspired pick here by the Yanks!  In fact, both Kennedy and Chamberlain were, in retrospect, great risks to take at the spots where the Yanks  were picking.  Gotta give credit where it's due.
42.  Chris Perez, St.L, RHP.  AA:  2-0, 2.43, 40.2 IP, 28 BB, 62 K, 27 Saves.  AAA:  0-1, 4.50, 14 IP, 13 BB, 15 K, 8 Saves.  Grade B.  Obviously being groomed as a closer.  Are the walks going to be a problem?
43.  Steve Evarts, ATL, LHP.  SS(Appy):  4-0, 1.75, 37 IP, 4 BB, 34 K, GO/AO= 1.96.  Grade B.  Atlanta taking it slow with it's HS draftees, but they have an excellent development track record.
44.  Caleb Clay, Bos, RHP.  SS:  1-0, 2.14, 21 IP, 6 BB, 9 K.  Grade C.  Small sampe size in short season league, but is Clay the most promising of Boston's first 4 2006 draftees?

1.  If Billy Beane made the trade, it must be good for the A's.
2.  If Logan White likes him, he's going to be great.
3.  God said it.  I believe it.  That settles it!

I remember when Giants fans used to say similar things about Brian Sabean.  Do you think any of them are saying that now?

I just don't accept blind faith as a viable way to live.

Any phrases that drive you nuts?

Here's an excerpt from the BA/ESPN Chat hosted by John Manuel December 19:

Q:  Did the A's get enough for Haren to put them back in the top 10-12 systems in the game?  And did the injury situation and the callups that resulted( Buck, Barton, Suzuki, Casilla, etc) make the cupboard appear even more bare?

A:  Not even close, Jeff, not for me.  No sure thing in that deal; more quantity than quality.  Not impressed with the state of that system in any way.  Their '04 and '05 classes are pretty weak in retrospect, even with Huston Street('04) and Buck('05), and '06 has ahd decent returns, but nothing spectacular.  Also, what happened to the A's in Latin America?  They are no longer developing players such as Ramon Hernandez and Miguel Tejada; granted that's hard to do, but they did it, and now they don't.

Flame away!

I thought it might be interesting to check in on the progress of our 2006 draftees.  

Disclaimer:  Letter grades are just one fan's opinion.  They are based on performance only, not on future potential and are very subjective.

1.  KC:  Luke Hochevar, RHP.  AA: 3-6, 4.69, 94 IP, 26 BB, 94 K. AAA:  1-3, 5.12, 58 IP, 21 BB, 44 K.  
MLB:  0-1, 2.13, 12.2 IP, 4 BB, 5 K.  Grade B.  Modest performance at each level, but gets some credit for advancing to The Show, even if just for a cup of coffee.

2.  Col:  Greg Reynolds, RHP.  AA:  4-1, 1.42, 50.2 IP, 9 BB, 35 K, GO/AO= 1.82.  Shut down with roatator cuff inflammation.  Had a "minor" surgical procedure and is expected to be ready for spring training.  Grade C+.  Great ERA, but relies on control/GB's.  Will this hold up at higher levels?  The injury is cause for concern too.  Aside:  #2 overall draft pick to the WS in 2 years?  Nice job Colorado!
3.  TB:  Evan Longoria, 3B.  AA:  .307/.403/.528.  
   

AAA: .269/.398/.490.  Grade A-.  Could be ready to take over 3B for the D'Rays as early as the start of the season.  Should hold it for a long time.  Q:  Will the D'Rays draft Pedro Alvarez #1?

4.  Pit:  Brad Lincoln, RHP.  DNP/TJ  Incomplete.  Would be an F except chances of coming back strong from TJ reasonably good.  Poor Bucs fans.  
5.  Seattle:  Brandon Morrow, RHP.  MLB:  3-4, 4.12, 63.1 IP, 50 BB, 66 K.  Grade A-.  An awful lot of walks, but otherwise props for a successful MLB debut all the way from rookie ball!  Like the versatility here.  Can move to starter or closer.
6.  Detroit:  Andrew Miller, LHP.  Minors(several stops):  3-4, 2.77, 78 IP, 25 BB, 61 K. GO/AO= 4.32!
   

MLB:  5-5, 5.63, 64 IP, 39 BB, 56 K, GO/AO=1.48.  Grade B.  Gets props for pitching, somewhat successfully, in the majors.  Still, his MLB debut has to be a bit of a disappointment.  Now, off to Florida!

7.  LA:  Clayton Kershaw, LHP.  Low A:  7-5, 2.77, 97.1 IP, 50 BB, 134 K.  AA:  1-2, 3.65, 24.2 IP, 17 BB, 29 K.  Grade A-.  Too many walks, plenty of time to improve that.  K's show prodigious talent.  I have to say I'm PO'd at the Dodgers for habitually jumping their best prospects from low A to AA, so I don't get to see them in the Cal League.
8.  Cincy:  Drew Stubbs, OF.  Low A:  .270/.364/.421, 12 HR, 23 SB, 15 CS.  Grade C.  A college draftee in low A ball should do better than this.  
9.  Balt:  Bill Rowell, OF.  Low A:  .273/.335/.426, 9 HR.  Grade B-.  Not terrible for a HS draftee, but others in same class have done better.  I still like his upside, though.
10.  SF:  Tim Lincecum, RHP.  AAA:  4-0, 0.29!, 31 IP, 11 BB, 46 K.  MLB:  7-5, 4.00, 146.1 IP, 65 BB, 150 K.  Grade A.  Room to sharpen command, but about as good as it gets for a first full season.
11.  Ariz:  Max Scherzer, RHP.  High A:  2-0, 0.53, 17 IP, 2 BB, 30 K.  AA:  4-4, 3.91, 73.2, 40 BB, 76 K.  AFL:  1-1, 2.13, 12.2 IP, 5 BB, 18 K.  Grade B+.  Not sure how the D'Backs kept him from going to Oakland.  Probably has the highest ceiling of any D'Backs pitching prospect.
12.  Texas:  Kasey Kiker, LHP.  Low A:  7-4, 2.90, 96.1 IP, 41 BB, 112 K's.  Grade B+.  Very nice looking numbers, a tick below Kershaw since Kershaw made a successful jump to AA.
13.  Chi Cubs:  Tyler Colvin, OF.  High A:  .306/.336/.514.  AA:  .291/.313/.462.  Grade B.  Nate Schierholtz gets hammered for his poor plate discipline, why not Colvin?
14.  Tor:  Travis Snider, OF.  Low A:  .313/.377/.525, 16 HR's.  AFL:  .316/.404/.541, 4 HR, 98 AB's.  Grade A.  Can you ask any more of a HS draftee in his first full season?
15.  WA:  Chris Marrero, 3B/OF/1B?  Low A:  .293/.337/.545, 14 HR.  High A:  .259/.338/.431, 9 HR.  Grade A- Stumbled a bit after promotion, but still showed power.  Like this kid a lot.
16.  Mil:  Jeremy Jeffress, RHP:  Low A:  9-5, 3.13, 86.1 IP, 44 BB, 95 K.  Grade B.  Really a fine season for a kid this raw.  Should the substance issues lower his grade?
17.  SD:  Matt Antonelli, 2B.  HIgh A:  .314/.409/.499, 14 HR.  AA:  .294/.395/.476, 7 HR.  Grade A-.  Alderson and Fuson show how Moneyball is done!  Only caution is both Cal and Texas leagues are hitter's leagues.  I think this guy is going to be excellent at 2B for the Pads though.  Arrrgh!  I really like the way the Pads aren't shying away from power in a big ballpark.  They just figure they'll hit 'em farther than the visiting teams.
18.  Phi:  Kyle Drabek, RHP.  low A:  5-1, 4.33, 54 IP, 23 BB, 46 K, GO/AO= 2.08.  Shut down for TJ surgery midseason. Grade C. Good chance of full recovery, but has to be a dissappointment for the Phils on top of makeup issues.
19.  Fla:  Brett Sinkbell, RHP.  High A:  6-4, 3.42, 79 IP, 14 BB, 49 K, GO/AO= 2.22.  HWBL:  3-1, 1.64, 33.0 IP, 16 BB, 24 K, GO/AO= 2.50.  Grade B+?  This is a hard one.  Would like to see a college draftee move higher than High A already but Chamberlain and Kennedy used HWBL performances to propel them all the way to the majors last year.  Sinkbell must have a helluva sinker.
20.  Min:  Chris Parmelee, OF.  Low A:  .239/.313/.414, 15 HR.  Grade C+.  Gets a plus for power and playing in a pitcher's league, but still a disappointment for Twins fans.
21.  NYY:  Ian Kennedy, RHP.  Minors(several stops):  12-3, 1.91, 146.1 IP, 50 BB, 163 K.  MLB:  1-0, 1.89, 19 IP, 9 BB, 15 K.  Grade A.  Gotta give credit where it's due.  A surprisingly great season for a guy considered by many to have  low ceiling.  Can he help the Yanks rotation this spring?
22.  WA:  Colton Willems, RHP.  SS:  3-2, 1.84, 58.2 IP, 26 BB, 31 K.  GO/AO= 1.84.  Grade C+.  Gets dinged for low K's and level of play.   Nats are taking it very slow with this youngster.
23.  Hou:  Max Sapp, C.  Low A:  .241/.330/.333.  Grade D.  Is it too early to start thinking Sapp is a bust?
24.  Atl:  Cody Johnson, OF.  SS(Appy):  .305/.374/.630! 17 HR.  Grade B.  Would be a A except for level of play.  Can the Braves work their magic on a kid who had bust written all over him?
25.  LAA:  Hank Conger, C.  Low A:  .290/.336/.472, 11 HR's.  Grade B+.  Gets a break for being in a tough league and playing a premium position.  Gotta love the Hank for Prez video too.
26.  LAD:  Bryan Morris, RHP.  DNP/TJ.  Incomplete.
27.  Bos:  Jason Place, OF.  Low A:  .214/.298/.359, 12 HR.  Grade D+.  Gets a plus for showing some power, but that's an ugly BA.
28.  Bos:  Daniel Bard, RHP.  Minors(several stops):  3-7, 7.08, 75 IP, 78 BB, 47 K.  HWBL:  0-0, 1.08, 16.2 IP, 15 BB, 15 K.  Grade D.  Ouch!  1/1 K/BB in the HWBL not too reassuring.  This draft seemed so promising for Boston at the time.
29.  CWS:  Kyle McCulloch, RHP.  High A:  7-7, 3.64, 121 IP, 42 BB, 88 K, GO/AO= 2.45.  AA:  1-2, 6.41, 26.2 IP, 11 BB, 16 K, GO/AO= 2.14.  Grade C+.  Peripherals still look good in AA.  Low risk/low ceiling pick who is staying true to form.
30.  StL:  Adam Ottavino, RHP.  High A:  12-8, 3.08, 143.1 IP, 63 BB, 128 K, GO/AO= 1.38.  Grade C+.  Another low risk/low ceiling pick who is on track.

That's round 1!  Overall, this was a pitching dominant draft that is turning out much better than many anticipated.

Flame away!!

Over at mccoveychronicles.com, a lot of Giants fans are cowering in a corner waiting for the awful news that Brian Sabean, a man few, if any of them, trust to make decisions like this has pulled the trigger on a Tim Lincecum for Alex Rios trade.  

There are conflicting rumors.  Comments from the Giants camp would seem to indicate that the deal probably won't happen unless Toronto adds other players to the deal.  Toronto seems to be under the impression that the deal is 1 for 1 and the Giants just need more time to think about it or debate it internally, or whatever. It does seem certain, based on commments by Brian Sabean himself, that this was seriously talked about and the deal is not dead yet.

I, and many other Giants fans, don't like the deal, not because we think Tim is untouchable, or that Rios is not a good player.  It just seems that for a team like the Giants, who clearly need to rebuild, it's more of a lateral move.  1 for 1 deals are not going to rebuild this team, especially when it still leaves huge holes at 3B and 1B.

If you are Brian Sabean, do you pull the trigger on this trade?

Poll

Is Trading Tim Lincecum for Alex Rios a Good Trade for the Giants?

19%

Yes

37 votes

80%

No

155 votes

192 votes | Poll has closed

Amid all the blockbuster Cabrera/Santana/Haren speculation, there are some lesser trades that might make more sense for some of the teams in question.  I'm going to focus on the A's and the Giants.

Oakland needs position players in CF and SS, but they are in otherwise decent shape in the field.  To me, their biggest problem is pitching.  They have exactly 4, maybe five decent pitchers at the MLB level, Haren, Blanton, Gaudin, and Street.  Harden is possible if he can stay healthy, a diminishing liklihood.  To trade Haren or Blanton is going to exacerbate the pitching problem further and essentially give up on the next 2-3 seasons.  The A's need to be thinking about trading hitters for pitchers.

The Giants need help in the field desperately, particularly at 3B and 1B.  They have pitching to trade.  CF is also a relative surplus for the Giants, a position of need for the A's.

How about this?

A's trade Daric Barton to the Giants for Noah Lowry, Henry Sosa and choice of Fred Lewis/Rajai Davis/Dave Roberts.  I'd consider Randy Winn if the A's would prefer him.

Giants get a solid hitter until Angel V is ready.  The A's still have Dan Johnson and Jack Cust for 1B/DH.  The A's get a nice #4 pitcher who's buddies with Haren.  They get a passable CF, and they get a high ceiling pitching prospect.

What does everyone think?

I find myself increasingly frustrated with OPS as a measure of offensive performance.  I grossly overvalues singles(they are not twice as valuable as walks) and undervalue HR's in relation to singles(2.5X) but have it about right or slightly overvalued in relation to walks(5X).  That is compounded by adding two ratios with different denominators(PA for OBP, AB for SLG%). It also ignores the contribution or lack thereof of SB's in offensive performance.  What a mess!!

I got to thinking, how could you combine the best parts of OBP and SLG% into one % number that would be easy to understand and give a more accurate value of the players offensive performance?  

In my profession, they have something called Relative Value Units(RVU) which are supposed to quantify the relative value of different medical activities for the purposes of calculating reimbursement.  For instance, a typical office visit to a doctor for a common cold may have an RVU of 0.8 while a complicated new patient with multiple chronic health problems might be weighted with an RVU of 2.0 while a complicated surgical procedure that takes several yours may have an RVU value of more than 10.

The problem with the RVU system is that it may not be weighted properly.  Right now, it appears that outpatient office care is undervalued in relation to procedures which is exacerbating a growing shortage of primary care physicians.  Still, if the weighting problem can be corrected, it's theoretically a good system.

I decided to assign a RVU value to several offensive parameters and then use TPA as a denominator to arrive at a single number% that is easy to understand and possibly reflects more accurately the true offensive value of the player.

I am sure someone has calculated the relative value of these parameters in terms of run production somewhere, but I don't know where to find it.  So, I made some educated estimates that ore open to revision.  Here they are:

BB/HBP= 1.  This seemed like a good starting point because it equals one base gained.

Single= 1.2.  A single is more valuable than a BB, because it is more likely to advance runners who are already on base.  How much more?  Should it be 1.3? 1.4?  I chose 1.2 because it seemed right.

Double= 1.8.  A double is more valuable than a walk and a single, but almost certainly not twice as valuable.  But it does immediately get a runner into "scoring" position and is more likely to drive in runs than a single.  I decided on an RVU of 1.8, but this is open to adjustment.

Triple= 2.5.   Similar arguments as for doubles.  Is this too low?  I thought a triple is more like a double than a HR.

HR= 4!!.  The Big Kahuna!  HR is the only offensive event that produces a run without the help of another batter.  About 40% of all runs scored in baseball are the result of HR's.  I gave it a full 4.  Should it be even higher?  I thought about giving it as much as a 5!

SB= 0.5.  I think of a SB as turning a walk or single into a double, except it is not quite the same since a double can advance other runner and drive in runs while a SB does not.  O.5 seemed about right.

CS= -1.0.  A CS erases a walk or single, except the single might have had prior benefit of advancing runners.  I settled on a -1.0.

SF= 0.5.  A SF drives in a run, but also produces an out.  Runs are very precious but so are outs.  I split the difference.

SH= 0.2.  A SH advances a runner but results in an out.  A small net positive.  Some may argue this one, but the effect is generally negligable due to relatively few events.

GIDP= -1.9.  A GIDP result in an out plus it causes an additional out negating a teammante's single or walk.  A DP can occassionaly advance a runner or even drive in a run, so I didn't go all the way to -2.0  but close.  Is it an even more catastrohic event?

Anyway, I thought that was enough to do some calculations.  I looked up a variety of offensive players to see what effect it might have on how their offensive contribution is stratified.  I simply looked up the offensive events for each player, mulitiplied each event by it's RVU and then divided by TPA. Here's what I found:

ARod:  OPS= 1.067.  RVU%= .691.  No surprise here.  ARod had the highest OPS and the highest RVU%.

Prince Fielder:  OPS= 1.013.  RVU%= .667.  Again, no surprise.  OPS and RVU% assign about the same relative offensive value.

Hanley Ramirez:  OPS= .948.  RVU%= .604.  Sill not a huge surprise.  Hanley had a lot fewer HR's than ARod and Fielder, but had a lot more singles, doubles, triples and SB's.  Note that the relative difference between RVU% is greater than for OPS due to Fielder's superior power.  Did I overvalue HR's in RVU%?

Adam Dunn:  OPS= .940.  RVU%= .607.  Dunn had a slightly lower OPS, but a higher RVU% mainly due to more HR's. which more than made up for lack of speed and huge difference in BA.

Here's an interesting group:

Ichiro:  OPS- .827.  RVU%= .510.

Kevin Youkilis:  OPS= .818.  RVU%= .525.  Youkilis has a much lower BA(.357 vs .288) and Ichiro even had a higher OBP(.396 vs .390) but Kevin had more HR's(16 vs 6) and even more doubles(35 vs 22) for a better RVU% in spite of far fewer SB's and more GIDP's.  Which is the better number here, OPS or RVU%?

Dan Uggla:  OPS- .805.  RVU%= .517.  Uggla had both a low BA(.245) and a low OBP(,326) but had a lot of value due to all the XBH's(49 doubles, 31 HR's).  More than one way to skin a cat?

Chris Young:  OPS= .763.  RVU%= .517!  Here's a guy who's OPS may grossly undervalue him.  He had a terrible BA and OBP(.237/.295) but just raked the stuff he did connect with(29 doubles, 32 HR's)  He helped himself with a good SB%(27/33) and did not hit into DP's.  Which is a better reflection of his value, OPS or RVU%?

Here's an interesting guy:

Curtis Granderson led the league in triples with 23!  OPS= .903, RVU%= .598!  Despite mundane HR's(23) and OBP(.361), he helped himself a lot with the triples and also with a 26/27 SB's.  Note that his RVU% is right there with Dunn and Hanley and his OPS my undervalue him even though it is very good.

What do you all think?

The Giants signed this 6'10", 265 lb pitcher from Nashua of the CanAm League, an indy league in the northeast:

http://www.nashuapride.com/news/fullstory.php?id=1006

His stat line for Nashua was 7-4, 2.14, 54.2 IP, 22 BB, 63 K as a setup man/middle reliever.

Apparently Steve has a great interest in pitching mechanics and has done some work with our friend at Baseball Think Factory:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/mechanics/discussion/prospect_report_the_mechanics_of_stev e_palazzolo

Wow!  There's some pretty impressive video in there!

That's not all.  Steve made the CBS Evening News with Katie Couric back in 2006 because he was dabbling with the elusive gyroball:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/10/22/eveningnews/main2113218.shtml

I don't know what became of the gyroball, but it wasn't mentioned in the later Think Factory story.

I would guess Steve might start out in San Jose.  If that's the case, I will make every effort to see him pitch when the team travels to SoCal.  I suppose there is an outside chance they might keep him in the northeast and start him out all the way up at AA.

I supppose he's a longshot, but it's fun to fantasize about a 6'10", 265 lb setup man pitching for the Giants.

I found a nice little video of Madison Bumgarner pitching for his HS team.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAko0PpgYK8

 Notice his extremely low, almost sidearm delivery.  It does look like  a natural, easy motion though, and the ball seems to explode out of his hand.  The pitches look kind of dart like with lots of movement and variable movements.  I guess the rap is that it can be difficult to develop secondary pitches out of that arm slot, especially breaking balls with downward movement.

I still think we should have drafted Beau Mills at #10, but I find myself getting more and more excited in anticipation of Bumgarner's coming out party in the spring.  I wonder if we will seem both him and Timmy Alderson in the Augusta boxscores?  I can hardly wait.

Just a reminder of Bumgarner's HS stats from 2007:  12-2, 0.99, 85 IP, 27 BB, 120 K.

OK, I haven't seen a Romo diary yet and not a lot of comments in the Minor Lines diaries either.  What does everyone think of this guy?

Today in the AFL, he had another 2 shutout IP's with 3 K's.  His AFL record so far is 0-0, 0.64, 14 IP, 4 BB, 16 K's.  

Just for background, Sergio Romo was a low round draft pick in 2005.  Here is his record so far:

2005, S-K:  7-1, 2.75, 61.2 IP, 9 BB, 65 K.

2006, Augusta:  10-2, 2.53, 103.1 IP, 19 BB, 95 K.  Including 7 IP of a combined no-hitter.  Season was cut short by a fractured hand from hitting the dugout wall.

2007, SJ:  6-2, 1.36, 66.1 IP, 15 BB, 106 K's!!  Used as a 2-3 inning reliever after a mysterious injury at the end of spring training delayed the start of his season.  Eventualy worked his way to closer where he was lights out and played a big role in bringing the Cal League Championship back to SJ.

He is a fairly exreme flyball pitcher with GO/AO's well below 1.

Over the last 3 seasons, his WHIP has progressed 1.15, 0.94, 0.75.

What should be his role next season?

Is he for real?

Should he be moved back to starter or stay in relief?

Is he too old?

I'd like to try a slightly different approach to You Are The GM.  Instead of looking at the entire team, I'd like to try looking at just one position.  For starters, I thought 3B for the Angels might be interesting.

You are Tony Reagins.  You have just been hired to replase Angels GM Bill Stoneman.  Your team has made the playoffs the last 2 years but has gotten blown out by Boston both times.  Your predecessor took a lot of heat from the press for failing to find a power hitter to back up Vlad and for failing to trade prospects for immediate help.  

Third base has been a problem since Troy Glaus left.  Glaus' heir apparent, Dallas McPherson has been beset by a series of debilitating back injuries and poor play on the field.  Chone Figgins, who is coming off a terrific year, has gotten the most PT, but does not provide power.  The backup last year was Maicur Izturis who's skill set is similar to Figgins.  Brandon Wood is a potential superstar who might not be quite ready.  Robb Quinlan is a veteran benchwarmer who plays occasionally.

Who do you want to play 3B for the Angels in 2008?  Why?  How does your choice affect the future of the team.  

Poll

Who Do You Want To Play 3B for the Angels in 2008?

9%

Mike Lowell

5 votes

5%

Other FA(who?)

3 votes

0%

Trade(who, how?)

0 votes

7%

Chone Figgins

4 votes

50%

Brandon Wood

27 votes

27%

ARod

15 votes

54 votes | Poll has closed

Not sure if anyone is interested, but I posted  list of my own 2007 Giants Top 50 prospects back in the preseason.  I wrote up a review of how each of those prospects performed this season and discussed players I left off who maybe should have made it as well as players I included who might have been ranked too high.  Some of you might say there's no such thing as 50 Giants prospects, but if you read through the list and comments, I think you might agree with me that, if anything, the list is too small.  The Giants farm system performed remarkably well this year and the #24 ranking BA gave them was probably too low.  They should be even better, and a lot younger next year.  Just a ray of hope after a truly dismal season for the major league club.  Here's the link if it will work:

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsa=48&nav=messages&webtag=ml-giants&tid=84010

If that doesn't work, just go to sfgiants.com message board and look for DrB's 2007 Giants Top 50 Prospects in the prospects/minors folder.

What do you think?

How would you rate these college hitters in terms of what order you would draft them, and approximately where in the draft they would slot, i.e. #1 overall, top 5, top 10, first round, supplemental, etc. and why.

Pedro Alvarez, Vanderbilt, 3B, 6'2", 205 lbs, B-L, T-R.  .386/.463/.684 with 18 HR's.

Justin Smoak, South Carolina, 1B, 6'3", 200 lbs, B-S, T-L.  .315/.434/.631 with 22 HR's.

Yonder Alonso, Miami, 1B, 6'2", 210 lbs, B-L, T-R.  .376/.519/.705 with 18 HR's.

Brett Wallace, Arizona, 1B, 6'2", 205 lbs, B-L, T-R.  .423/.500/.719 with 16 HR's.

I would say Alvarez is clearly #1 because he can play 3B(has played SS in the past).  I believe Smoak has had some low BA's in wood bat leagues.  Do you worry about him hitting for high enough average in the pros?  Wallace also had 5 triples and 12 SB's so there is some athleticism there, but I've seen him ranked lower for some reason.

First, Jeff Kent rips the kids for lack of "professionalism" and not knowing how to "manufacture runs"

Kemp and Loney fire back.  "Who said he was a leader?" and "Where would this team be without the young players."  

Grady Little just sits there and looks befuddled.

Seems to me, without Kemp, Ethier, Loney and Martin, the Dodgers would be challenging the Giants for last place.  

Kent has played well, but was hurt during a key stretch.

Veterans Pierre, Furcal, Garciaparra and Gonzalez have contributed virtually nothing.

The achilles heal of the team, which has nothing to do with any of this, is the pitching.  Even here, Billingsley has tried to be the savior, but the Dodgers don't have the kind of farm depth at pitcher that they do in position players.  You just can't lose, or get meltdown performances from Schmidt, Wolf, Tomko, Hendrickson, Kuo, and now even Lowe, replace them with Wells and Loiza and expect to compete for a playoff spot.

Should Jeff Kent be a Dodger next year?

The Hawaiian Winter Baseball League announced that Matt Wieters will follow in the footsteps of Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy and make his pro debut in the HWBL.  I'll try to link this:

 http://www.hawaiiwinterbaseball.com

Other former first round draft choices assigned to this year's league include Ryan Harvey, Brandon Snyder and Daniel Bard.

There are several sons of former MLB players coming this year too:

Jared Lansford
Chad Tracy
Cale Iorg
Chris Johnson
Steve Johnson
Justin Sellers

Of course, the big news from last year's HWBL season was the debuts and subsequent fasttracking of Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy.  Other HWBL alumni currently on MLB rosters include Rick Vandenhurk, Nate Schierholtz, Joe Hatcher, Nyler Morgan and Jeff Clement.

Has the HWBL already become a more interesting league for prospect watchers than the AFL?  Any chance David Price makes his debut there this fall?

Mike Moustakas makes his pro debut tonight for Idaho Falls in the Pioneer League.

Several AA starters of interest:

Wade Davis: 5-3, 3.16, 68.1 IP, 24 BB, 65 K.

Clayton Kershaw:  1-1, 3.77, 14.1 IP, 2 BB, 10 K.  Damn those Dodgers.  They do like to push their pitchers, huh?  I was hoping for at least a whistle stop in San Bernardino so I could see him for myself!  The 2 BB's are the most promising part of his line so far in AA.

Nick Adenhart- 9-7, 3.74, 142 IP, 61 BB, 106 K's, 1.53 GO/AO.  For those who are a bit discouraged with Adenhart, I would point out that he just turned 21 and the TL is not the easiest league in the world for pitchers.

In the Cal League, Ryan Paul is listed as the probable starter for San Jose.  Not sure where that puts Henry Sosa whose turn comes up today.  Sosa was dominant through 5 IP his last start and was taken out after the first two batters reached in the 6'th.  I haven't heard that he is hurt.

Who are you watching tonight?

Matt Laporta hits HR #5 for WV in the SAL.  Could be the steal of this year's draft.

Beau Mills hits a double and HR in his High A debut for Kinston.

Ben Snyder- 5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K's for Augusta.

Who are you watching tonight?

Filler  Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler