SB Nation User Blog: Driveline Mechanics

Trade Analysis / Pitching Mechanics of Sean Gallagher

Driveline Mechanics — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:59:30 -0000

Sean Gallagher - The Biggest Return Piece in the Rich Harden Deal

When I solicited your views for the Rich Harden trade, the responses were varied amongst both Cubs and A’s fans. Make no bones about it - the A’s dealt a high-risk but high-impact player in Rich Harden and received a group of mediocre to above-average talent blocked at most positions in the Cubs’ system. However, is this such a bad thing? Remember that Harden hasn’t thrown 200 innings in his professional career ever, and the last two years he has lost significant time to injury. As a result, Rich Harden is no longer throwing a breaking ball, instead becoming a two-pitch (fastball/changeup) pitcher. How he gets it done with just two pitches as a starter is beyond me, but it is a testament to his amazing ability.

Let’s take a look at the pros and cons of the package, and as a bonus, we’ll take a look at Sean Gallagher’s pitching mechanics - pulled straight from his recent start for Oakland, where he led the A’s to victory over division rival Los Angeles of Anaheim, striking out seven in his debut…

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote an excellent piece about exchanging Rich Harden for Sean Gallagher here. In it, he makes some solid points about the durability of Gallagher vs. Harden and what would happen should Harden go down. Comparing Harden + his replacement to Sean Gallagher looks something like this:

That brings the combined totals for Harden + Harden Replacements to 180 innings with a 4.25 FIP, compared to the 180 innings we were projecting from Gallagher at a 5.00 FIP. That’s a difference of three-fourths of a run per nine innings, which while significant, adds up to a grand total of about 15 runs over the course of an entire season.

Fifteen runs, or roughly 1.5 wins - that’s the entirety of downgrading from Rich Harden to Sean Gallagher, based on the assumptions I made above. If you don’t like the numbers I used, feel free to plug in your own, but unless you’re very bullish on Harden’s health, you’re going to come to the conclusion that the swap will cost the A’s at most two or three wins between now and the end of 2009, when Harden’s contract expires.

For giving up those two to three wins in the next year and a half, the A’s receive club control over Gallagher from 2010 to 2013 (his ‘08-’09 years are already counted above), control over Murton from 2008 to 2011, control over Patterson from 2008 to 2014, a potentially useful prospect in Josh Donaldson, and they save approximately $8 million in salary.

If you assume that Cameron’s numbers are right (and I do), the A’s trade two to three wins for a ton of cost-saving prospects and league-ready players in addition to dumping $8mm in salary. This is a great trade by any measure! However, the problem lies in the fact that Rich Harden’s star power far outweighs what the A’s will get in Murton/Gallagher/Patterson/Donaldson, and that’s what’s blinding people. For those of you who have read Moneyball (and I hope that’s all of you), it is important to remember what Beane said about trading for and replacing players:

It’s not important to recreate the individual. It’s important to recreate the aggregate.

Beane said that regarding the loss of Jason Giambi, another high-profile player with stellar on-base and slugging percentages that couldn’t be replaced by any one single player. However, by choosing the undervalued parts that Beane could control, he was able to compete without one of the best players in the American League by adding Scott Hatteberg and Jeremy Giambi. Rich Harden is impossible to replace - but the package the A’s received in return does a good job of recreating the aggregate while saving the club money and giving them control over more pre-arbitration players who are league-ready.

A Closer Look at the Return

We’ll focus on two major players in the return - OF Matt Murton and RHP Sean Gallagher. Matt Murton is something of a pariah in Chicago, never getting playing time in the crowded outfield despite excellent on-base percentages in addition to a little pop from time to time. Though Murton has a line drive stroke and hasn’t shown the propensity to hit 25+ HR per year, he is a finished product that adds quite a bit of value to Oakland. His career batting line in the MLB is .294/.362/.448 and the average left fielder’s batting line is .264/.344/.441. All signs point to Matt Murton being a perfectly league-average (or slightly better) left fielder, both offense and defense considered. When you can get this production for close to the league minimum, you should be pretty damn happy.

Additionally, Matt Murton has never played full-time since 2005, and he is probably quite happy to be in a situation where his talents are appreciated. He will get a chance to play full-time in Oakland’s sparse outfield, probably joining the ranks of Carlos Gonzalez and Travis Buck in the long-run, while the other reserves scramble for playing time (Denorfia, Sweeney, Brown, etc).

RHP Sean Gallagher is the real return piece that people want to look at, especially after his great debut in Oakland last night. Gallagher combines a 93-96 mph four-seam fastball with a two-seam sinker, a straight change, devastating 12-6 curveball, and a newly added slider. Here’s what his Pitch f/x player card looks like, courtesy of Josh Kalk of The Hardball Times:

Type	Movement in x (in.)	Movement in z (in.)	Initial Speed (MPH)	Number Thrown	Percent	Versus RHB	Percent	Versus LHB	Percent
Fastball	-5.82	8.83	93.63	535	64.93	231	60.95	304	68.31
Curve	7.99	-5.8	75.33	86	10.44	35	9.23	51	11.46
Slider	3.96	0.57	83.75	159	19.3	111	29.29	48	10.79
Change	-7.58	8.53	82.81	44	5.34	2	0.53	42	9.44

As you can see, Gallagher works like most RHP - primarily fastball/change to LH batters and fastball/slider to RH batters. He throws his curveball to both batters with some regularity, though, which is a testament to his confidence in the pitch in addition to the quality of the late break. I like his approach, as he throws a significant percentage of fastballs to both hitters and trusts his best pitches, rather than dabbling in a lot of off-speed work.

In 2008, Sean Gallagher spent 29 innings in AAA, striking out 30 batters, walking only 9 and giving up 2 home runs. His career in the minors has been a major success - he has struck out just over a batter per inning (482 K in 480 IP) and has shown major durability despite large jumps in innings pitched (Gallagher threw 151 innings at age 19 and 164 innings at age 20 - both high totals for such a young pitcher).

Complaints about Gallagher tend to focus on the same things - his mild velocity (prior to his jump in fastball velocity in 2006) and his bad body (6′2″ 220 lbs). Sounds a lot like Dana Eveland, doesn’t it? Though Gallagher has a reputation for running out of steam late in the season, there is the fact that he is just 22 years old and the Cubs have imposed a large amount of innings on his young arm - something they are unfortunately known for doing despite history indicating that it might not be such a great idea. For my money’s worth, I see a pitcher with an above-average fastball and curve who has been durable and strikes out a ton of batters with a mild control problem (though it is trending down, a very good sign).

Gallagher’s Mechanics

Thanks to reader xv84, I’ve figured out how to synchronize and combine two pitches from the same pitcher. I won’t waste any time showing you it, because it’s positively awesome:

This is a sequence of Sean Gallagher vs. Chone Figgins in the first inning of the A’s / Angels game yesterday. Gallagher ran a fastball in on Figgins at 95 mph on an 0-1 count, speeding his hands up, then threw a nasty looping curveball on the outside corner of the plate nearly 20 mph slower, sitting him down. Poor Figgins never had a chance.

However, there are a few things I don’t like in Gallagher’s delivery. The first is the timing of his pitching arm at footstrike. Compare James Shields to Sean Gallagher in these two images - right when both pitchers start to turn their shoulders:

As you can see, Gallagher’s arm is not vertical when the shoulders turn. However, neither is it below the horizontal plane of his acromial line, so it’s not terrible. However, this will increase the distance that the forearm lays back in external rotation and will increase the load on his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL).

Tempo-wise, Gallagher is a lightning-fast 16 frames from maximal leg lift into footplant, which is excellent. Nothing to change here! Furthermore, Gallagher features the late stepover into footplant that I like, as it aids in fast rotation of the hips ahead of the shoulders:

Gallagher significantly “scap” loads his arm behind his back, but keeps the elbow at or below the level of the shoulders. He has a great high glove finish at the shoulder in the deceleration phase:

He does feature a bit of pitching arm recoil, but his arm does a pretty good job of uniformly decelerating across his body, so I think it’s fine for the most part.

Overall, though I don’t like his timing at footstrike/shoulder turn, Gallagher has otherwise pretty solid mechanics. I’d rate them at a tick above average, or Good.

In conclusion, I think the A’s got a good deal. That’s not to say that the Cubs got a poor return, since Patterson is blocked by Theriot/Fontenot/Derosa, Donaldson is blocked by Soto, Murton is hated by the organization, and Gallagher is nothing more than a fourth/fifth starter to the Cubs, depending on Rich Hill’s ability to throw strikes. Both teams did well here, and I just don’t understand the people that say that Oakland got ripped off here.

For more in-depth analysis of pitching mechanics, check out Driveline Mechanics.

Pitcher Analysis: Tim Lincecum

Driveline Mechanics — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 11:25:24 -0000

The 98 mph fastball. The knee-buckling curveball. The leap off the mound. The electric arm.

Based on readers’ comments and repeated emails about Lincecum, I don’t need to say much more. Check out the sickest curveball you’ll see this side of Josh Beckett after the break.

But first, a preview

Disgusting. More on that later.

Statistical Analysis

I won’t spend too much time on this, since people primarily want to see his mechanics, but it’s worth noting a few things. Lincecum is 8-1 with a 1.99 ERA. Over 90.2 IP, he has 92 strikeouts, 35 walks, and only 3 HR allowed. His FIP is 2.57 which indicates he’s getting somewhat lucky on batted balls in play, but then again, most starters with a sub-2 ERA are going to be lucky. His rate stats are outstanding - K/9 of 9.13, BB/9 of 3.47, good for a K/BB ratio of 2.63. He is holding batters to a .310 SLG, which is laughably low. His BABIP is .308, but his eBABIP based on the formula .763LD% + .265GB% + .131FB%, his BABIP should be around .321 (data pulled from Fangraphs, as always), which confirms our initial suspicion of his luck on batted balls. 20.9% of batted balls off Lincecum are line drives, which is very high - last year he allowed 15.4% line drives.

Basically, Lincecum has the components of a great pitcher - high strikeout rate, manageable (and dropping) walk rate, and ability to depress XBH. Somehow I doubt you needed me to tell you that, though.

Pitch Analysis

Let’s check out his stuff: (pulled from Josh Kalk’s player cards)

Type	Movement in x (in.)	Movement in z (in.)	Initial Speed (MPH)	Number Thrown	Percent	Versus RHB	Percent	Versus LHB	Percent
Fastball	-4	11.23	95.37	835	66.96	367	67.84	468	66.29
Curve	4.73	-4.46	80.35	136	10.91	99	18.3	37	5.24
Slider	1.98	1.23	85.02	56	4.49	31	5.73	25	3.54
Change	-3.61	5.31	83.6	220	17.64	44	8.13	176	24.93

As most right-handed pitchers attack batters, Lincecum utilizes his curveball against RHB more than LHB while using his changeup more frequently against LHB. (James Shields is an exception to this rule.) Though he doesn’t throw many sliders, he mixes it in there as a show-me pitch, which is a great way to keep hitters off-balance the third time through the lineup. His fastball is blistering with an average velocity of 95 mph and tons of backspin.

Lincecum’s release point is consistent amongst his pitches:

Though it varies a reasonable amount, all of his pitches are equally represented in the spread with the possible exception of fastballs released in the top left quadrant. That being said, it wouldn’t be something batters could pick up, especially given his windup and delivery.

On to his mechanics…

The Good Stuff - Mechanical Analysis

I’ve been fortunate enough to see Lincecum pitch for the University of Washington (I live in Seattle). He was absolutely dominating hitters at the college level, and at the time I thought his delivery was very weird (I didn’t know much about mechanics then). I wondered how his body would hold up to a long season despite his obvious focus on conditioning and training. Here’s what he looked like back then:

He looks pretty much the same these days, of course - replete with huge stride and lightning-fast arm.

After analyzing his mechanics a bit closer, I noticed that he has a bit of an L-arm in his delivery:

Fortunately at footstrike, his arm is up and on time:

He doesn’t suffer from a timing problem in this regard.

Tempo

Lincecum is 18-19 frames from maximal leg lift to footstrike. Excellent.

Arm Action

Lincecum reverse-rotates his shoulders a bit more than I’d like, but again, his timing at footstrike does not suffer as a result, so it’s not that big of a deal. He does show the ball behind his back, however, so it’s easier for the batter to pick up the arm path. That being said, Lincecum also does a good job of hiding the ball as it comes up past his body by keeping his shoulders closed as long as possible and yanking his head out of the way at the last possible minute as he releases the ball from a very high 3/4 arm slot (which I like). Lincecum exhibits major horizontal abduction of the shoulder but keeps the elbow in line with or below the acromial line, so I can’t find fault there. His arm is lightning-fast, obviously. I give him a Very Good - Excellent grade - right on the border, since I question the L-arm and his significant horizontal abduction, but only slightly.

Ball Release / Followthrough

Lincecum gets on top of the ball as he throws from that high arm slot, and though I see signs of pronating his curveball through release, it’s impossible to tell for sure on 30 FPS video. What we can see is that he points the PAS shoulder at the target and keeps his momentum moving forward, brings his leg around, and has a good initial glove position, setting himself up for a solid followthrough phase. Excellent ball release phase.

In the followthrough phase, he decelerates his arm uniformly across his body and against a firm glove side - his left elbow only yanks back after the pitching arm slaps against his back. Note how the glove finishes at the shoulder after release? Perfect. He has serious intent to throw the ball hard, which is great, but he also keeps his eye on the target and is able to watch for comebackers in case he has to field a bunt or defend himself against line drives. Excellent.

Conclusion

Lincecum’s mechanics are basically perfect. His stuff is ridiculous. Here are the nine teams that picked over him and who they took instead:

Royals: Luke Hochevar. The Boras holdout doesn’t even come close.
Rockies: Gregory Reynolds. A control pitcher who strikes out few and is very hittable. Pass.
Rays: Evan Longoria. Can’t complain here.
Pirates: Brad Lincoln. Derailed by arm surgery, he’s having a decent year at Low-A. At age 23.
Mariners: Brandon Morrow. Ignoring that they totally mishandled him (and continue to do so), he is not as good as Lincecum, though he is having a good year.
Tigers: Andrew Miller. Terrible mechanics, poor performance.
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw. This might be the only pitcher that could outperform Lincecum, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Reds: Drew Stubbs. .786 OPS in A+ at age 23? No thanks.
Orioles: William Rowell. Hahahhahahahahaha.

When I see this list and look at Lincecum, I am reminded of this line from Moneyball:

“What gets me really excited about a guy is when he has warts, and everyone knows he has warts, and the warts just don’t matter.” -Paul DePodesta

Some teams need to remember that it’s not always what you could be. It is what you have done.

For more in-depth analysis of pitchers and hitters, check out Driveline Mechanics.

Pitcher Analysis: Justin Duchscherer

Driveline Mechanics — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 09:50:58 -0000

Before I start the analysis of Justin Duchscherer (hereafter called “The Duke”), I want to confess that The Duke is my favorite pitcher of all time. He gets it done at the major league level without a 90+ mph fastball and throws five pitches for strikes, relying on his pinpoint control and his ability to change speeds and locations at will. He has been a setup man, a closer, and now finally gets his wish and has been converted into a starter (he did win a minor league Cy Young, after all). How does the Duke do it?

Well, the Duke throws the following pitches (source: Fangraphs):

Fastball: 86 mph (47.1%)
Slider: 81.3 mph (3.2%)
Cutter: 81.6 mph (26.0%)
Curve: 69.8 mph (22.8%)
Change: 79.9 mph (0.9%)

A soft-tossing righty junkballer that dominates the American League? You bet. More after the break…

Statistical Analysis

The Hardball Times has some of the best free stat breakdowns of players today. Here’s what the Duke looks like from a statistical standpoint:

Let’s take a look at his Basic Pitching chart first. The Duke has thrown 54.3 innings with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, surrendering only 2 home runs and a .285 SLG-Against statistic (much better than Batting Average Against). He has a 38:15 k/bb ratio, or 2.53:1 (good). Furthermore, he also controls the running game very well - he has a short, compact stride and is quick to the plate. He has a good pickoff move to keep the runners close, and he varies his hold times well to confound would-be runners.

As we focus on the THT Pitching chart, we get to the good stats. The Duke’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) stat is 3.22 - when you compare this to his actual ERA (2.32), we can see that he has been a bit lucky in regards to balls put into play. Sure enough, his DER behind him is at a .750 rate, giving him an approximate BABIP of .250 (we’ll check Fangraphs for the exact number later). Most pitchers surrender a BABIP of .298 or so, confirming that the Duke is a bit fortunate. He has actually induced more fly balls and his Infield Fly (IF/F) percentage is low. The key stat here is the HR/F stat - or Home Runs on Fly Balls. It is a ridiculous 3.9%. HR/F is a stat that normalizes in a small range (11-12%) for most pitchers in the league, and the Duke has shown no ability to depress this rate at such a high level. Lastly, his LOB% is low, at 72.2%. When you add everything together, you can draw a very simple conclusion: The Duke is getting really lucky on balls put into play this year!

However, let’s give credit where credit is due. The Duke is posting an above-average k/bb ratio of 2.53:1 (league average is about 2), and he is actually giving up a bunch more line drives than usual:

Though we can expect the Duke to regress to the mean, we should also expect his LD% to go down a bit while his GB% also goes up. This should help him, since it’s pretty hard to hit grounders over the fence!

The Duke’s BABIP is indeed below league average:

Fangraphs says BABIP under .298 is “good,” when in reality it should read “lucky.” This will regress slightly back to the league average, meaning that the Duke can expect more bloopers and grounders to find holes and create hits.

So, what does it all mean? Statistically speaking, we should expect the Duke to give up some more hits and home runs on his flyballs throughout the year, and his ERA will certainly finish above 3. However, what we know about the Duke is that he has pinpoint control and depresses SLG-Against well. He doesn’t give a lot of free passes on the bases, and when you don’t walk batters and it’s tough to hit doubles or home runs off a pitcher, it is consequently difficult to score runs. My prediction for the Duke’s final ERA would be around 3.70 - still quite good!

Mechanical Analysis

Before I go into the video of the Duke (taken from his start vs. the Tigers on June 4th), I’d like to discuss this photo I ran across while doing a Google Image Search for him:

This is a perfect example of what Tom House calls “equal and opposite arms.” Note how his glove arm mirrors his throwing arm - this helps to keep the pitcher balanced and free of timing flaws.

Here’s a video of the Duke inducing a groundball to Hannahan at third base with a cut fastball:

Note how quick and low his stride is - as a runner, it’s very difficult to pick this up. When you combine it with frequent throws over and an ever-changing hold time before leg kick, it’s nearly impossible to time the Duke to successfully steal.

Arm Action:

The Duke does an outstanding job of keeping his shoulders closed and turning his hips well ahead of his upper body. This is a major component of velocity, though in the Duke’s case, you might not notice it! Regardless, it is a major plus to look for in a pitcher’s mechanical analysis. The Duke has a nice clean pendulum swing arm action and his elbow stays below the level of his shoulders throughout his delivery. He does not reverse rotate his shoulders or hips, adding to the deception on his pitches and helping to ensure his arm gets up on time at footstrike. The Duke also does not feature much horizontal abduction (scapular loading) of his arms, which should reduce the load on both the anterior and posterior structures of his shoulders.

At footstrike/point of turning the shoulders, the Duke’s arm is up through the horizontal plane and not late. This will reduce the load on his Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL). I give the Duke’s arm action an Excellent rating - in fact, the best I have analyzed on this site! (No bias, I swear!)

Tempo

Out of the stretch, the Duke is 16 frames from maximal leg lift into footplant. This is Excellent.

Ball Release / Followthrough

The Duke points the Pitching Arm Side (PAS) shoulder at the target after release and sets himself up for a good followthrough phase. Furthermore, the Duke “yanks” his head out of the way at the last minute as he delivers the ball from a high 3/4 arm slot, much like Tim Lincecum. This will add to the deception and make it harder for the batter to pick up the pitch on time - giving the Duke a few more mph in perceived velocity. His ball release phase is Excellent.

As for the Duke’s followthrough, it is picture-perfect - Excellent. He passively decelerates his arm uniformly across his body, letting his pitching hand slap against his left hip/butt as he points the PAS shoulder at the target. He firms up the glove arm and doesn’t “sling” it back (much like Scott Kazmir), giving him a stable foundation to throw against. He doesn’t lock out his Glove Arm Side (GAS) knee, which I don’t care much about, but it will reduce the load on his knee/hips.

Overall, the Duke is mechanically outstanding. The only problems he will have are due to supinating the release of his breaking pitches - his overhand curve, his cutter, and his “slider” (I think he only throws a cutter, so the Pitch f/x or Fangraphs system might be picking up cutters as sliders). This will cause soreness in his elbow due to the olecranon process slamming into its fossa, and he will lose range of motion and flexion about his elbow joint with every supinated release. He can also strain his upper arm muscles as a result of this mechanical flaw, as fans saw him land on the 15-day DL with biceps soreness/strain. Hopefully as the Maxline Pronation Curve makes its way through baseball, we will see less of these injuries.

The Duke’s back injuries are not a result of pitching and more of an unfortunate reality that athletic competition does not affect all humans equally. The Duke is almost certainly genetically predisposed to back problems/injuries, and will suffer them throughout his life. Hopefully the Oakland A’s medical staff has good chiropractors and massage therapists on hand to work with the Duke between starts.

This fanboy gives the Duke two thumbs up from a statistical, mechanical, and performance stance. There’s something awesome watching a right-hander get people out without throwing over 88 mph and usually sitting well below that by using his pinpoint control and wits to outsmart the hitter.

Read more about pitching/hitting mechanics at Driveline Mechanics.

Pitcher Analysis: Clayton Kershaw

Driveline Mechanics — Mon, 26 May 2008 01:14:35 -0000

Clayton Kershaw, a 20-year old phenom in the Dodgers organization, is one of the top pitching prospects in the nation. Today (5/25), Kershaw made his MLB debut against the St. Louis Cardinals. Millions of Dodgers fans watched to see the kid touted as the next Sandy Koufax and hoped that the young lefty would live up to the hype.

He didn’t disappoint. Kershaw gave six solid innings of work, striking out seven, walking one, and scattering five hits, giving up just two runs in the process. Unfortunately due to some defensive misplays (Dewitt’s throw home, Loney’s juggling of a pop fly), Kershaw got stuck with an extra run he perhaps didn’t deserve. The Dodgers maligned offense couldn’t give him three runs, so he left the game tied, unable to get a win. However, by any measure, Kershaw’s debut was a success. He showed off excellent command of his 94 mph fastball - dialing it up to 96 on plenty of occasions - and maintained his velocity even as he eclipsed 100 pitches in his start. His 72-76 mph curveball was devastating, as he was liable to throw it in any count to any hitter, burying it in the dirt for swinging strikeouts and simply looping it over the plate for a get-me-over strike.

I saw an outstanding young pitcher with a ton of promise today. Let’s take a look at what Clayton Kershaw has done in the past and let’s look to the future as we analyze his mechanics…

Kershaw’s Statistical Analysis

The Dodgers knew they had something special on their hands as soon as they assigned Kershaw to rookie ball at age 18 in the Gulf Coast League. Kershaw pitched only 37 innings, but struck out 54, walked only 5, and gave up no home runs, netting a 1.95 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. At age 19 he rocketed through A-ball in the Midwest League, posting 134 strikeouts, 50 walks, and 5 home runs allowed in 97 innings (2.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and finished the year in AA, throwing 24 innings with a 29:17 k/bb ratio but allowing four home runs (3.65 ERA, 1.38 WHIP). Those stats are unbelievably impressive for a young prospect, much less a 19 year old in AA ball!

However, Kershaw was not satisfied. He would return to the Midwest League in 2008 at age 20, where he would throw just 43 innings before getting called up to the MLB to start. In his 2008 stint in AA, he would allow no home runs while shaving his walk rate down, as he posted a 47:15 k/bb ratio (2.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).

By any statistical measure, Clayton Kershaw has nothing left to prove in the minors. He depressed XBH rates, he struck out more than a batter per inning, and he shaved his walk rate even farther down. His command and control are exceptional, and his stuff is outstanding - pairing a red-hot 96 mph fastball with a devastating 12-6 72-76 mph curveball and flashing an average changeup with good fade (the only pitch he needs to work on to help get the tough right-handed hitters out). However, it is important to note that Kershaw is only 20 years old and threw just 122 innings in 2007. Assuming the Dodgers bump up his innings limit to 140-150 this year, he still won’t be ready to fully slot into the rotation until 2010, though nothing aside from injuries will stop him from throwing 160-175 innings in 2009. His performance is too good to leave in the minors, something the Cincinnati Reds should learn from (Jay Bruce). The Dodgers should hopefully realize the talent they have in Kershaw and treat him accordingly - to rush him to the majors and place a large workload on him would be irresponsible.

Kershaw’s Mechanical Analysis

Here’s video from his MLB start:

And here’s video from him in the minors (source: Hardball Times):

Let’s break down his mechanics, point by point.

Arm Action

This is Kershaw at footstrike.

As you can see, his PAS elbow is below the level of his shoulders, a very good sign. Furthermore, his arm is up and through the horizontal plane at the ready/high-cocked position, another good sign. He exhibits horizontal abduction of the shoulders, taking the elbows behind the body - also known as “scapular loading.” Though I think this stresses the anterior muscle groups of the shoulders, there is significant evidence that shows “scap loading” is a major component of velocity. Furthermore, plenty of pitchers exhibit this horizontal abduction and have remained healthy throughout the years - Greg Maddux is just one of many examples. As I have said before, there is a model pitcher at RPM Pitching who shows very little scapular loading and throws 90+ MPH by actively involving muscle groups that are typically used passively to decelerate the ball (latissimus dorsi, Pronator Teres), but it’s just a sample size of one and the results are not yet public.

However, I digress. Note Kershaw’s arm angle in this frame:

See how it’s bent towards his head? This will help prevent Kershaw’s arm from “flying out” and it also makes it easier for him to pronate through release (if he does this) to prevent his ulna bone from slamming into his olecranon process. It will also help stop inflammation of the medial epicondyle (sore elbow), which is caused by supinated releases of pitchers.

Here’s a slowed-down clip of Kershaw’s arm action:

Note the pendulum-swing type arm action as he starts with the glove high but brings it down to waist-level at hand break; a major plus. Also watch as he keeps his weight back and rides that back leg as he powerfully strides into footplant. In the footstrike still photo above, you can see how he is turning the hips well ahead of the shoulders (look for the belt buckle to face home plate while the shoulders remain closed) - this is a major component of velocity.

Kershaw also does not take the ball laterally behind his body in reverse rotation. Not only will this reduce the load on his shoulder, but it will increase the perceived velocity of all of his pitches. Here’s what I mean:

The hitter won’t see the ball until the second-to-last frame - right before ball release. This makes it really hard to pick up the type of pitch and will increase his deception.

Kershaw’s arm action is Excellent. He embodies great mechanics from both a medical/injury prevention outlook and a performance view. Nothing more to say on this topic.

Tempo

As Alex Eisenberg points out, Clayton Kershaw is a bit slow from maximal leg lift into footplant for a power pitcher, clocking in around 29-30 frames. I’d like to see him pick up the pace to help take the load off his arm/shoulder, and possibly gain a tick or two on his fastball, but his arm action is so clean that I wouldn’t want to mess with anything here in fear of negatively affecting his other outstanding qualities. Therefore, while his tempo grade is Poor, I can’t recommend any changes.

Ball Release

A major component of the ball release phase is the ability to hide the ball well, or add to your deception. As I covered in the Arm Action segment, Kershaw does an outstanding job of this by not reverse rotating his shoulders as he delivers the pitch and also keeps the arm bent towards his head, ensuring the arm does not fly out and let the hitter pick up the ball earlier. As such, I’m going to combine the Ball Release / Followthrough phases together by using these clips:

Immediately upon viewing these clips, I noted the intent of Kershaw - similar to that of Max Scherzer - he bends his back and points his PAS shoulder at the target while pulling down with his head. These are all great aspects of his delivery. Note how in the first clip Kershaw is maximally rotating his shoulders. This will give him a great setup for the followthrough and recovery phases of the delivery. Kershaw does a good job of firming up the front side as his chest comes to the glove and he shows no sign of actively pulling with the glove arm. Actively pulling the glove to the chest can cause flyout and a reduction of velocity, and I do not recommend pulling the elbow back as most amateur pitchers do; I prefer pitchers to focus on bringing the hand to the shoulder.

Kershaw’s arm follows through completely to his back pocket and he exhibits no signs of actively braking his arm. Combine this with his great intent and maximal shoulder rotation after release, and you have all the ingredients for an Excellent ball release phase and an Excellent followthrough phase.

Conclusion

Dodgers fans, you have a stud pitcher on your hands for the next few years who exhibits all the performance of a Sandy Koufax without the mechanical flaws. If the Dodgers avoid overworking him in any given start and limit his innings increases throughout his career, you’re going to have one hell of an ace. Let’s just hope that Joe Torre doesn’t take forever to trust his young talent as he often does with rookies.

Read more analyses of pitchers and hitters at Driveline Mechanics.

Pitching Mechanics Voiceover: Andy Sonnanstine

Driveline Mechanics — Wed, 21 May 2008 09:18:16 -0000

Ohio’s own (I’m from Cleveland), Andy Sonnanstine hails from Barberton and attended college at Kent State University. Though Sonnanstine posted a 5.85 ERA last year and currently has a 4.53 ERA, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) stats are 4.26 and 3.89, respectively. That indicates he is the recipient of some poor defense behind him and is simply getting unlucky instead of him being a subpar pitcher.

Sonnanstine throws a ton of different pitches for strikes. Here’s his 2007 Pitch f/x data, courtesy of Josh Kalk’s site:

type	Speed (MPH)	Break x (inches)	Break z (inches)	Balls	Strikes Called	Strikes Swinging	Foul/Foul tip	In play outs	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Home Runs
Fastball	87.93	0.33	8	135	101	32	72	55	17	6	0	2
Curveball	72.64	10.74	-1.67	27	7	9	4	6	1	1	0	0
Slider	77.71	7.61	0.49	41	19	26	25	25	7	5	0	2
Change	81.39	-7.12	4.39	23	9	7	4	10	1	0	0	2
Cutter	87.73	-6.86	5.35	53	27	9	26	14	8	3	0	0
Splitter	81.46	5.27	7.94	23	10	3	18	5	3	1	0	1

If that doesn’t get you excited, I don’t know what will. Read on!

Sonnanstine’s peripherals are great, for the most part. He walks less than 2 batters per game, allows less than 1 home run per game, but his strikeout rate is below 5. Regardless, his k/bb ratio is quite good and his GB/FB/LD rates are improving as well:

Sonnanstine also throws from various different arm angles, which adds to his deception. In theory, it should make his control worse, but it doesn’t seem to affect him due to his very good walk rates.

And now, on to the video! I wanted to keep it shorter that Scherzer’s analysis, but it looks like it clocks in at just over 17 minutes. Sorry! There’s a bunch of good stuff in there about Sonnanstine compared to Roy Oswalt, though!

Click the link above to see the video, as I couldn't embed it into DRays Bay.

Pitcher Analysis: Cliff Lee

Driveline Mechanics — Wed, 14 May 2008 12:51:19 -0000

[Editor's Note: I've invited Kyle Boddy of Driveline Mechanics to analyze an Indians pitcher. Here's his statistical and mechanical analysis of Cliff Lee's amazing start to the 2008 season - Ryan]

Phrases that I heard about Cliff Lee over the course of the 2007 season:

He’s a bum!
Good riddance - enjoy Double-A, you idiot.
We should have traded you for Matt Murton while we had the chance!

Phrases that I have heard about Cliff Lee over the course of the 2008 season:

We love you!
Never leave!
Thank God we didn’t trade you for Matt Murton!

Funny how things change, isn’t it?

Of course, when you’re posting numbers that would make former Indians’ hurler Cy Young blush, people tend to notice. Cliff Lee’s stats currently look something like this: 53.2 IP, 0.67 ERA, 4 BB, 44 K, 1 HR. Yes, you read that right - a 11:1 k/bb ratio and allowing only one home run (which, need I remind you, barely got out of Progressive Field courtesy of Wladamir Balentin). Lee has thrown a complete game shutout this year and would have had another if the Indians could have scored a single run in the first nine innings of the nightcap against the Blue Jays. (In fact, the Indians starters almost combined for back to back complete game shutouts that day by Fausto Carmona and Cliff Lee.)

So how’s he doing it? Well, besides striking out tons of batters, not walking anyone, and not giving up extra-base hits, he is sporting a quite-low BABIP of .224. Though the Indians’ rate 8th overall in Defensive Efficiency (DefEff) at 0.713, that still means the approximate expected BABIP of the pitchers on the Tribe should be around .287. To further calculate Lee’s expected BABIP (eBABIP), we can take his GB/FB/LD rates and plug it into this formula:

.763LD% + .265GB% + .131FB%.

That formula represents the best fit line for all batters with 300+ PA in 2006, and while it has probably changed since then, it’s still a good and quick tool to estimate BABIP.

For those who would like to know more on BABIP and what it means, you can read this excellent primer on it. In short, pitchers show very little ability to control what happens after the ball is put into play, and therefore BABIP remains stable for all pitchers - including Cy Young winners like Brandon Webb as well as bottom of the barrel guys like Matt Morris. A few pitchers have demonstrated the ability to depress BABIP rates to a small extent, such as Barry Zito and Jamie Moyer. Stadiums with above-average foul ground territory aid in this process, as does the ability to generate large amounts of Infield Pop-Ups.

Lee has allowed 17.3% line drives, 47.5% ground balls, and 35.3% fly balls (source: Fangraphs). Using the above formula, Cliff Lee’s eBABIP is 0.304 - quite a bit higher than his current .224. (The current major league average BABIP is about .299.) Through that, we can expect Lee to regress back towards the mean, which will also correspond with an increase in his ERA/WHIP. Lee’s Fielding-Independent Pitching stat still rates at 1.83, which is basically his expected ERA calculated from BABIP regression.

Here’s what Cliff Lee’s GB/FB/LD rates have looked like over his career (source: Fangraphs):

Notice anything? In 2008, he has swapped his GB/FB rates! Lee has always been an extreme flyball pitcher, leading to a career-high 30 HR allowed in 2004, but this year he is generating tons of ground balls. I wish I had Pitch f/x data, but I have had no luck trying to download it and parse it despite following various walkthroughs available on the Internet. Hopefully Josh Kalk updates his Pitch f/x tool for lazy people like myself.

Another important thing to note is that Cliff Lee typically allows 10% of his flyballs to go over the fence. This year, he’s at just 2%. That is also not a sustainable number, as HR/FB is usually very stable across wide ranges of pitchers. Lee is also stranding 90% of runners who reach base, which is simply ridiculous - the MLB average is just over 72%, and again, this is a stable number from year to year as well.

By now I hope you have realized that while Cliff Lee is very lucky this year, he is also doing the three things that sabermetricians look for in a front-line pitcher:

Strike a lot of batters out.
Don’t walk a lot of batters.
Don’t give up extra-base hits.

Pitchers who do these things are aces year in and year out. Some pitchers do two things exceptionally well, which is good enough to be a top of the line starter. Pitchers who do all of the above are your Johan Santanas and Jake Peavys.

As an Indians fan, I sure hope he keeps up the torrid pace!

Pitching Mechanics

Now that we’ve dissected Cliff Lee from a statistical point of view, let’s check out his pitching mechanics:

Since I have nothing to compare him to, I can’t tell if he has made mechanical changes in 2008. If anyone has video from previous years (particularly 2007), please forward it to me.

Tempo: Lee is pretty slow from maximal leg lift into footplant, clocking in at 20-21 frames. However, he’s not a power pitcher, and he’s a lefty, so this isn’t too major of a concern. I’ll grade it as Good.

Arm Action: Lee reverse-rotates his shoulders as he starts to bring the ball out through his hand break. He does not use a classic pendulum swing, but neither does he break his hands with his elbows, so there’s no need for concern there. Lee has an aggressive lower body motion, “sitting” down as he drives to the plate. As readers should know by now, I like aggressiveness into footplant through tempo as well as this motion (you can see perfect examples of both in Roy Oswalt’s delivery). At footstrike, Lee’s arm has passed through the horizontal but it is not into the high-cocked position. He will experience more stress on his UCL and anterior structures of the shoulder than a pitcher like Greg Maddux, but his arm is an acceptable enough position for me. I’ll grade it as Good.

Ball Release: Lee aggressively pulls down with his head and points the PAS shoulder at the target. Like I said about Max Scherzer, I think this is a very good thing. The glove is up and around his GAS shoulder. Lee gives himself every opportunity to have a great followthrough phase. Grade: Excellent.

Followthrough: Like Max Scherzer, Lee has an aggressive shoulder rotation. Unlike Max Scherzer, he actually follows through with his arm and does not actively brake it. However, Lee pulls his elbow behind his body rather than keeping his front side firm. Pitchers can firm up the front side by focusing on pulling their hand back, not their elbow. Regardless, it’s not that big of a deal since I like his followthrough and recovery of the pitching arm. Grade: Very Good.

All in all, I like what I see, and it matches up with Lee’s clean bill of health (his DL stint was due to an abdominal strain, nothing arm-related). This Indians’ fan hopes that he keeps his mechanics clean and continues to put up plenty of zeros on the scoreboard!

For more statistical and mechanical analysis of pitchers and hitters, check out my website: Driveline Mechanics .

Quick Note: Chien-Ming Wang

Driveline Mechanics — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 07:48:19 -0000

Posted over at Driveline Mechanics...

Source: Getty Images

I hate to start this article off all doom-and-gloom style, but I’m already unhappy with where this analysis is going. This still accurately captures the intensity of pitching for the Yankees, but it also indicates two things I am probably going to dislike in Wang’s delivery:

He is showing the ball to CF/2b, which unnecessarily increases stress on the UCL, and

He is taking the ball laterally behind his body, commonly called "reverse rotation." However, as an addendum, he does have his elbows below the shoulder in this picture, so when I analyze the video, it might be okay.

Let’s check out the video…

Looks like I was wrong: I actually like quite a bit of what I see here.

Arm Action: Good. He sweeps his arms down, back, and out in a pendulum swing. His arm is up at footstrike, and he keeps the elbow below the PAS shoulder. He avoids excessive reverse rotation, and naturally “scap loads,” rather than forcing the issue. However, he does show the ball to CF/2b, which I don’t like, as stated before. Otherwise, very good.

Tempo: Great. 19 frames to footplant from maximal leg lift.

Ball Release: Excellent. Gets a ton of hip/torso separation (most important piece of velocity), points the PAS shoulder at the target, and powerfully throws with his whole body.

Followthrough: Excellent. Casual viewers will see what looks like gloveside flyout and not throwing against a firm front side, but it’s actually the opposite. Wang brings his chest to the glove and lets his arm travel across his body as his shoulders continue to rotate. He does indeed firm up the front side during the followthrough step, even tucking the elbow into his side to some degree (which I love). It’s only after his arm is about done with the followthrough step and into recovery where his GAS flies back, which I have no problem with. Furthermore, he aggressively brings his PAS leg up and to the side of his body, and though I’d like a bit more rotation, his great followthrough step compensates for it.

Mechanical Conclusions

I’d only change the fact that he shows the ball to CF/2b; I’d prefer if he turned it more towards third base at footstrike. Otherwise, very good. I suspect (but can’t tell without high-speed video) that he pronates hard through release to get the great sink he does on his fastball/changeup combinations, and I also think his slider is safer than most for the same reason. How about that pitch on the video, eh? Pretty nasty. Hard tailing pitches are my favorite ones, not only because they are extremely hard to adjust to, but because they are so effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and because you need to pronate hard to get that kind of action.

Let’s check out his pitch selection:

type	Speed (MPH)	Break x (inches)	Break z (inches)	Balls	Strikes Called	Strikes Swinging	Foul/Foul tip	In play outs	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Home Runs
Sinker	94.08	-6.89	6.64	167	70	16	88	83	21	2	0	1
Slider	85.14	1.41	2.6	41	15	20	16	12	6	0	0	0
Change	81.42	-5.87	7.82	21	2	9	10	7	2	0	0	0

That is some ridiculous lateral movement on his sinker, and he combines it with great depth. You can compare it to his changeup, which actually sinks less than his sinker, which is pretty much unheard of.

Interestingly enough, Wang doesn’t really pound the bottom half of the strike zone with his sinker:

He primarily works the middle and bottom thirds of the strike zone, rather than aiming low. Wang’s got great movement on his sinker, though, so hitters are probably naturally swinging over it due to the perception of the location, rather than the actual location itself. That’s even better than pounding the bottom part of the zone, because failure to pick up the real location of the pitch is what gets you soft contact.

When you put together a primary pitch that sinks more than the average changeup and combine it with a slider with great tilt and depth, who cares if you have a third pitch? Wang manages to work in his changeup anyway, which has great velocity differential and decent enough movement on its own. Clean mechanics, plus velocity, and deceptive pitches? Sounds good to me.

Quick Note: Joakim Soria

Driveline Mechanics — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 13:54:14 -0000

From Driveline Mechanics...

Royals’ fan Brian commented on the request post, stating how much he liked the site and if I could do a bit on Joakim Soria:

I’d love to see an analysis on Joakim Soria. The guy doesn’t throw all that hard but gets K’s all the same. I’ve read that batter’s can’t really pick up his release point and that it looks like the ball is coming out of his sleeve. I’d be interested to see if his mechanics might explain this. Thanks, I love the Web site.

Flattery will get you everywhere, my friend! Let that be a lesson to all readers out there.

I’ve gotten a few comments on various forums and blogs that I keep track of using blogstats in WordPress, and almost all of the A’s, Rays, and Royals fans have been very supportive and interested in my work. Yankees fans tend to question my credibility and flame me. Though it is over a small sample size, it sure does reinforce a few stereotypes! Let it be known that I have a bias towards a readership who likes to have civil debate with me, rather than a group who would rather just post irrelevant jabs.

Anyway, moving on to Soria. Royals’ closer Joakim Soria is another Rule 5 draft success story, being stolen out of the Padres organization after they left him exposed. He went on to have a pretty damn good year in 2007, but spent some time on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation.

In 2007, Soria posted a 2.48 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 69 innings, logging 75 strikeouts and allowing just 19 walks and 3 home runs. Those are outstanding peripherals, and it leads many people to wonder just how the hell a pitcher of this aptitude managed to be exposed in the minor league draft? Well, Soria has had a long and indistinguishable career in the minors and the various Mexican leagues, spending some time with the Dodgers and Padres. His numbers in the Mexican league weren’t all that good; he kept getting bombed out of the park. However, Baseball Prospectus posted this interesting bit of information on his PECOTA card:

There is tremendous variation in altitude between teams, which makes park effects extremely relevant. …[this] makes the adjustment for some pitchers surprisingly easy. Soria played in Mexico City, which at 7,300 feet is 2,000 feet higher than Denver. As a result, his translated ERAs are actually better than his actual ERAs.

Now that’s interesting! True to form, Soria is a flyball pitcher (41% GB rate in 2007). Something Royals fans should be wary of is the fact that he posted a low .256 BABIP in 2007, something that he probably will not repeat. The MLB average was just above .300 last year, and Soria’s eBABIP based on his FB/GB/LD batted-ball data indicates he should be around .311 BABIP (using .763LD% + .265GB% + .131FB% = eBABIP). If you regress Soria’s AVG-against statistic, he probably wouldn’t look as studly. (For all that kind of fun data, you can check out Fangraphs)

What about his pitches? His Pitch f/x data is not all that exciting except for his fastball:

type	Speed (MPH)	Break x (inches)	Break z (inches)	Balls	Strikes Called	Strikes Swinging	Foul/Foul tip	In play outs	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Home Runs
Fastball	91.89	-1.15	10.39	94	86	27	83	44	10	5	1	1

He doesn’t get much lateral movement on his fastball (Break x), but his vertical movement (Break z) seemed quite high for me. Though it is functionally impossible to throw a four-seam fastball with enough backspin that it actually rises, if you throw one with more backspin than the average pitcher, it will give the appearance that it is rising. Two pitchers that batters often ascribe this feat to are Bartolo Colon and Jonathon Papelbon, so I checked their Pitch f/x data to see how Soria matched up.

Colon

type	Speed (MPH)	Break x (inches)	Break z (inches)	Balls	Strikes Called	Strikes Swinging	Foul/Foul tip	In play outs	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Home Runs
Fastball	94.91	-5.63	10.63	67	31	24	40	22	4	2	0	0

Papelbon

type	Speed (MPH)	Break x (inches)	Break z (inches)	Balls	Strikes Called	Strikes Swinging	Foul/Foul tip	In play outs	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Home Runs
Fastball	96.01	-5.64	9.84	60	37	41	53	28	6	0	0	1

Soria’s fastball compares well with both of these pitchers, though both Colon and Papelbon get better lateral movement on their fastballs and have better velocity.

What’s really cool is his fastball chart:

Now that’s how you get flyballs, popups, and strikeouts. Soria relentlessly and aggressively attacks the strike zone, pouring strike after strike in on the batter. I am a big fan of this approach - I hate walks, and as long as your stuff is good enough to avoid significant extra-base hits, pounding the strike zone keeps the defense on their toes and the hitters on their heels. Interestingly enough, Soria’s sabermetric-friendly teammate Brian Bannister had his theories confirmed that reaching 1-2 and 0-2 counts would help depress his BABIP rates, as well as throwing breaking balls in those counts (it is a small effect, but statistically significant).

Mechanics

I didn’t set out to do a full-blown analysis of Soria, and I won’t for now. However, here’s a slowed down clip I found of him on pitchingclips.com:

I looked at the clip for about 10 minutes on my computer, and I am not really too enthused with his followthrough, which I think explains all of his shoulder inflammation problems. Here’s a quick rundown:

Arm Action: Good. Long and smooth. Arm gets up early and is through horizontal at footstrike. No timing problems.

Tempo: Fast. 18-19 frames from maximal leg lift into footplant.

Ball Release: Fine. Points his PAS shoulder to the target; sets his body up for a good followthrough.

Followthrough: Terrible. He flies open with his glove arm, giving him no stability to stop his throwing arm gently. He brakes his arm extremely fast after releasing the ball, almost consciously. I have to believe this is the root cause of all of his shoulder and upper arm injuries.

I wish he would throw against a firm front side; he should focus on slapping his chest with his glove or at least firm it up somewhat.

Conclusion

All in all, I like Soria’s ability to compete at the MLB level from a statistical point of view. He fits in well with the organization’s philosophy of having flyball pitchers who strikeout a fair amount of batters with good control. It keeps errors down by depressing hard-hit groundballs and keeps the game moving pretty quickly. As a player, I love that aspect of pitchers who work quick, pitch fearlessly, and throw a ton of strikes. It keeps me on my toes and in the game mentally. Mechanically, however, Soria has a huge followthrough problem that he needs to fix to stop landing on the DL with shoulder inflammation. It could lead to something serious down the line.

Pitching Mechanics: Joba Chamberlain

Driveline Mechanics — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 08:36:42 -0000

As requested, by readers Mark and Heater, I’ve done some analysis of Joba Chamberlain. Most people are familiar with his body of work statistically, so I’ll skip that for this analysis and focus only on the mechanical side of the top prospect in pinstripes.

Source: pitchingclips.com

Unfortunately for Yankees fans, I don’t really like what I see…

Tempo/Arm Action

His tempo is pretty good. Depending on when you define maximal leg lift, Joba’s anywhere from 18-20 frames into footplant. We’ll say it’s 19 frames - that’s fast, even if it doesn’t really look that quick.

However, Joba’s arm action is not good at all. There are two major things wrong with it:

1) He has signs of the “Inverted L” and/or “Inverted W”

The “Inverted L” is a term invented by Chris O’Leary. It refers to the position of the pitching arm right before footstrike, and can be a sign of problems to come. The “Inverted W” is when a pitcher brings his elbows above the level of his shoulders in a position of hyperabduction. This can cause impingement problems down the line and also leads to rushing. Here’s a few stills of what I mean:

Possible Inverted W

Possible Inverted L

These particular positions are often found in pitchers who have an “elbowy” or “short” arm action, and it’s often promoted as a good thing. Who remembers Mark Prior’s “flawless” mechanics? Take a look at this:

Mark Prior’s Inverted W

We all know Prior’s injury history, now don’t we?

Here’s an example of a severe Inverted L (or as I also call it, “Hung Arm Syndrome”):

B.J. Ryan’s Inverted L (credit: Chris O’Leary)

2) His arm is late at footstrike

Problem #1 leads to problem #2 very frequently. In this case, his arm has not passed through the horizontal plane axis of his shoulders at footstrike. This will cause unnecessary force in the external rotation phase of the pitching motion and is evident when you see how far Joba’s arm lays back in that phase:

Ball Release / Followthrough

It is clearly evident that Joba has a lightning-fast arm. Check it out:

Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean he has a good followthrough phase; he doesn’t.

Compare him to a pitcher I like, such as Zack Greinke:

Joba doesn’t really do anything I like in the followthrough phase except for slapping his shoulder with his glove, which, to his credit, is quite rare in the MLB. He does a decent job of pointing the PAS shoulder at the target, but he has an abrupt followthrough and doesn’t bring his PAS leg up and around his body to give his decelerator muscles a break.

Conclusion

I think Joba’s injury concerns are well-founded. He has a lot of the classic signs of hyperabduction, rushing, hung arms syndrome, and a bad followthrough. That he does a few things right and is blessed with obvious genetic gifts does not make him a good bet to avoid serious injury in the future. Throw in some conditioning concerns and you have a legitimate reason to fear for Joba’s future.

Pitcher Analysis: Zack Greinke

Driveline Mechanics — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 06:12:58 -0000

From drivelinemechanics.com...

I have to admit, Zack Greinke has been one of my favorite pitchers to watch ever since he made it to the big leagues with the Royals. Yes, I’m an Indians fan, but like the folks over at Baseball Prospectus, his stuff is exciting to watch. He throws both of his fastballs at varying speeds and locations, he has a great curveball that he occasionally hangs at 70 mph, and flashes a plus changeup and slider combination to boot.

Here’s his Pitch f/x data:

type	Speed (MPH)	Break x (inches)	Break z (inches)	Balls	Strikes Called	Strikes Swinging	Foul/Foul tip	In play outs	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Home Runs
Fastball	95.6	-4.44	11.59	189	77	42	116	62	13	5	0	2
Curveball	79.72	8.03	-2.37	27	18	9	8	9	2	1	0	0
Slider	85.46	5.14	2.09	49	36	25	15	10	8	0	0	1
Change	88.83	-5.7	7.77	42	31	22	27	19	4	4	0	0

In 2007, he threw 122 innings with 36 walks, 106 strikeouts, and 12 home runs allowed, good for a 3.69 ERA / 1.295 WHIP and a 7-7 record. He is an extreme flyball pitcher (33% GB rate), but he gives up a significantly lower amount of earned runs than most other pitchers, in fact allowing no unearned runs in 2007. ERA is a flawed statistic for various reasons, but that’s beyond the scope of this blog.

His peripherals are great; he walks very few batters while striking out about the league average, and doesn’t give up too many home runs on his flyballs.

Here’s his Pitch f/x chart for just his fastballs:

There’s no doubt that he likes to work up in the zone, though he does make a concerted effort to hit the lower targets as well. This explains his flyball tendencies. Let’s check his lefty/right splits.

vs. Lefty

type	Speed (MPH)	Break x (inches)	Break z (inches)	Balls	Strikes Called	Strikes Swinging	Foul/Foul tip	In play outs	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Home Runs
Fastball	95.83	-4.01	11.82	74	28	22	45	24	6	1	0	1
Curveball	79.85	8.04	-2.42	20	12	6	4	4	2	1	0	0
Slider	85.56	4.83	2.05	31	19	20	9	9	3	0	0	1
Change	89.57	-4.19	9.62	17	16	10	13	8	2	1	0	0

Like most right-handed pitchers, Greinke works the outside part of the plate against lefties. He seems to throw his breaking pitches more often against lefties, which makes sense, as he tends to locate his curve on the arm-side part of the plate.

vs. Righty

type	Speed (MPH)	Break x (inches)	Break z (inches)	Balls	Strikes Called	Strikes Swinging	Foul/Foul tip	In play outs	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Home Runs
Fastball	95.44	-4.72	11.43	115	49	20	71	38	7	4	0	1
Curveball	79.46	8	-2.26	7	6	3	4	5	0	0	0	0
Slider	85.28	5.69	2.17	18	17	5	6	1	5	0	0	0
Change	88.23	-6.92	6.26	25	15	12	14	11	2	3	0	0

Against righties he attacks them with his two-seam/four-seam fastball combination and mixes in his changeup more frequently, which is atypical. Like I said in my analysis about James Shields, changeups are usually used by right-handed pitchers to neutralize the platoon advantage lefties tend to have. If you look at the Foul/Foul Tips on the chart, you can see that Greinke gets a bunch of them on his fastball when he locates it up in the zone and on the opposite side of the plate.

A quick way to check how good someone’s stuff is using Pitch f/x data is to look at the balls put into play for base hits. Look at both of Greinke’s charts; there are barely any hits that aren’t in the strike zone. This means that hitters cannot hit “bad balls” off Greinke; a huge advantage when you’re trying to expand the strike zone as a pitcher.

Enough of the numbers; let’s get on with the mechanical analysis.

Tempo / Arm Action

Greinke’s tempo is slow; he is about 24 frames into footplant from maximal leg lift. Most power pitchers are 18-23 frames into footplant. (Roy Oswalt is a short 18 frames into footplant.) It would be nice to see him pick it up a bit, but tempo is the smallest part of my analysis.

His arm action: Amazing. Beautiful. Splendiferous. Zack doesn’t reverse rotate his shoulders much, and he doesn’t take the ball laterally behind his body. He breaks his arms with his hands, not his elbows, and has a nice, long sweep of his arm as it gets into the high-cocked position, which he gets up early and right about at footplant (tough to see using this angle). He pendulum swings the ball back with his palm facing down and has a great move into footplant, as he strides powerfully into a slightly open stance, clearing the hips and giving them room to rotate powerfully.

I like pitchers who lean over towards their glove-arm side (GAS), because I prefer a higher 3/4 slot delivery, like Greinke has. He leans and tilts the acromial line, and I believe this adds even more momentum and power throughout the delivery, as you get to use more of the body to generate velocity.

Ball Release / Followthrough

I like what I see here, for the most part. Greinke points his PAS at home plate and allows it to decelerate across his body; he also brings his PAS leg up and around his body. This will help avoid bullwhipping / backlash of his arm during the recovery phase and it will take stress off the decelerator muscles. However, his glove arm doesn’t finish well. Like Tom House, I prefer pitchers to at least firm up their glove arm against their chest, but ideally they would tuck their elbow into their ribcage and slap their shoulder with the glove. This isn’t done by anyone in the MLB, but it is a cue that Bill Peterson of RPM Pitching likes quite a bit. After teaching it to my high school kids, I agree wholeheartedly. Of course, not even I do that:

Me, pitching in a scrimmage for my amateur league team. (I threw two scoreless innings, no hits, one walk, no strikeouts.)

As you can see, I do the same thing with my glove arm - I pull it straight back. However, I do pull the glove to the chest to some degree. But enough about me; I just wanted some free publicity.

Conclusion

I still love Zack Greinke, perhaps moreso after this analysis. He has clean mechanics that look effortless up there, and as scouts say, real prospects make it look easy.