While I'd rather the Sox were 6-0 going into this weekend's series with the MFY, I'm getting a little tired of the examples that have been cited to show that the Sox will have to make a historic comeback to make the post-season.  One of my favorites is the percentage of teams starting the season as poorly as the Sox making the playoffs.  This is stupid for a number of reasons, but I'll cite two:

(1) The majority of teams that start badly are bad teams.  Looking at the Sox' roster, is this a bad team?  ESPN's Jayson Stark ran the numbers for the 85 teams that started 0-5 or worse and found that 61 (72%) of them finished with a losing record.  Does anyone really think the Sox will be under .500 this year?  Two-thirds of those losing records (67%) were from teams that lost 90 or more games.  Again, does anyone see similarities to this year's Sox team?   This year's team is pretty much a healthier version of last year's crippled team who won 89 games.

(2) You can throw out almost two-thirds of the seasons covered because there were no playoffs.  One team won each league and played for the championship.  The only seasons that are comparable to this one are those after 1995, when the current playoff format was established.  I'm sure that might change the percentages.   

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There are reports that Andy Pettitte is retiring tomorrow.  If true, the MFY rotation looks extremely shaky.  They better hope their offense score a ton of runs.

Pettitte was New York's second-best starter last year.   The list of available starters is pretty thin (I can't wait to see Kevin MIllwood in pinstripes).  Now that everyone knows the MFY need starters, they'll pay a pretty steep price for anyone decent.

To quote Craig Calcaterra: 

Big news if true.  Also means that Pettitte’s offseason workouts are, in fact, for his health. Who knew?

I couldn't be happier ...

According to Rob Bradford of WEEI, the Sox will not pick up Wake's perpetual $4 million option.

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Randy posted a link to a Ken Rosenthal article predicting an LA victory in the ALDS.  The two teams played 9 times this year, with the Angels winning 5 games.  During the season, Angels base-runners stole 15 bases and were only caught twice.  However, looking at the game-by-game results, I'm not sure LA's running game had much impact in the regular season.  Here's a recap of the season series:

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You always hear how important it for teams to peak at the right time.  But when is the right time?   When teams play well down the stretch and continue to play well late into October, you often hear how they got hot when it mattered.  When a team plays well in August or September but fall short in the post-season, many will say that team peaked too soon.  Let's look at every AL playoff year since 2000 to see whether "hot" teams have an advantage in October.

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The playoffs are coming and the Sox will have to set their roster soon.  The two biggest decision will involve Jason Varitek and Manny Delcarmen.  Both players have struggled.  But since Tek is more likely to get meaningful post-season playing time, we'll leave the MDC discussion for another time.

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Rob Bradford od WEEI is reporting that the Sox have DFA'd Julio Lugo.

According to a source familiar with the situation, the Red Sox have designated Julio Lugo for assignment. The Red Sox will have 10 days to assign Lugo's contract to another major or minor league club, whether it be via trade or through waivers.

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The Red Sox are currently second in the AL in runs and team OPS.  They've done this despite a poor lead-off hitter and no production from the #3 spot in their batting order (the #8 spot is a black hole too). 

Let's take a moment and back away from bashing David Ortiz, Julio Lugo, or (insert player's name).  All teams have holes.  I find it hard to believe that one line-up spot or player can drag a whole team down.

Here's a comparison of the Sox, MFY, and Rays based on how each spot in their line-up has done to date.  By line-up spot, I am looking at the batting order position and not the player.  In most cases more than one player has hit in a particular spot.  For example, four players have manned the cleanup spot for the Sox: Youkilis (89 AB), Bay (37 AB), Lowell (3 AB), and Bailey (3 AB).  I am counting the combined hitting totals of those four players when hitting fourth and not each player's individual stats.  The stats are listed by AVG/OBP/SLG.

             Red Sox              Yankees             Rays

#1 .294/.329/.356       .267/.335/.407    .211/.313/.289

#2 .315/.407/.413       .318/.382/.601    .336/.400/.461

#3 .215/.321/.313       .206/.342/.466    .327/.382/.660

#4 .333/.439/.644       .237/.329/.407    .250/.358/.610

#5 .294/.374/.493      .255/.303/.461     .259/.346/.333

#6 .289/.431/.579      .298/.399/.500     .254/.338/.448

#7 .254/.329/.470      .328/.421/.576     .232/.284/.362

#8 .208/.313/.360      .238/.298/.400     .308/.347/.446

#9 .295/.345/.462      .280/.321/.352     .287/.331/.426

The Rays have the best 2-3-4 combination.  The MFY are getting almost nothing from the 3-4-5 spots in their line-up.  Yet the MFY are scoring at a slightly better rate than the Rays: 5.41 runs per game v. 5.25 runs per game.  The Sox are averaging 5.63 runs per game. 

It seems to me that order of the hitters means less than the aggregate.  While the #3 and #8 spots are pretty dead on the Sox (none of the three teams listed has a good lead-off hitter), the Sox other six hitting spots are better than the top six on the Rays or MFY. 

Food for thought?

Thank you Bud Selig! 

The Sox placed Dice-K on the 15-day DL and called up Hunter Jones, a lefty reliever, from Pawtucket.  I think it's hard to argue that the WBC isn't responsible for Matsuzaka's "arm fatigue," which is what the Sox are calling Dice-K's injury. 

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According to Boston.com, Jed Lowrie will be placed on the 15-day DL with a left wrist injury.  Gil Velazquez was called up to take Lowrie's spot. 

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Is anyone else worried about Ellsbury as the Sox' lead-off hitter?  In 670 career AB (including today's game), Jacoby's OBP is just .346.  That's barely adequate for a tablesetter.  Last year his OBP was a putrid .336

Many here at OTM have questioned the wisdom of hitting Ellsbury first.  Speed doesn't matter if you can't get on base.  But, it's more than that.  Taco Boy just isn't a patient hitter.  He doesn't work counts and, too often, he tries to hit the long ball.   I'm beginning to think Ellsbury just doesn't get it.  He doesn't understand his role on the team.

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Here are the top payrolls, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.  These numbers include bonuses and money owed former players.

NY Yankees - $206,811,689

NY Mets - $139,102,235

Chicago Cubs - $137,945,612

Detroit Tigers - $129,598,000

Philadelphia Phillies - $128,307,380

Boston Red Sox - $122,624,689

LA Angels - $113,709,000

LA Dodgers - $109,175,853

Houston Astros -$105,035,000

Seattle Mariners - $99,596,926

Chicago White Sox - $98,418,500

Atlanta Braves - $97,692,834

St. Louis Cardinals - $93,612,500

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Mazz is reporting that the Sox and Tek have reached an agreement on a 1-year deal with an option.

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MGBB noted on another thread a rumor that the Sox have offered Jason Varitek a $5 million contract.  According to WEEI's Rob Bradford, the Sox have offered a possible two-year deal.  The first year would be guaranteed for $5 million (with possible incentives).  There would be a club option for another $5 million or a player option for $3 million.

I think this is a bad deal for the Sox.  It seems to go against their policy of setting a value for a player and not over-paying.  In my opinion, Jason Varitek is not worth $5 million.

In addition, a Tek signing means that either Josh Bard or George Kottaras won't make the team.  While neither is a sure thing at catcher, both have far more upside than Varitek (who isn't a sure thing himself). 

Aside from Tek's declining skills, one of my main reasons for not wanting Tek back is my belief that he still envisions himself as a legitimate starting--if not elite--catcher.  Why else would he turn down a guaranteed $10 million in arbitration?  Bradford quotes ESPN's  Buster Olney regarding Tek's negotiations with the Sox:

Here is where they stand in the impasse: Varitek is asking for an annual salary close to the $10-12 million he would’ve made through arbitration, or a two-year deal for less annual salary. The Red Sox are willing to pay him much less than that, and don’t feel they owe him extra cash for services rendered in the past, and they don’t feel they owe it to him to offer a salary commensurate with what Varitek would’ve made if he had accepted arbitration.

If this is true there's no way Tek will accept being a platoon catcher in 2009. 

Bradford notes that the Sox have set a deadline for the negotiations.  But there's no word on the exact date of the deadline.

In a sense this post is an over-long answer to fishfarmr, who called Sox fans critical of Jason Varitek disloyal.  I believe Tek is the one who is being disloyal. 

Four years ago, he and his agent (Scott Boras) held the Sox' feet to the fire before agreeing to a 4 year/$40 million contract.  Tek was coming off his best season--.296 AVG/.390 OBP/.482 SLG--and he was looking for 5 years/$55 million.  Had any other team offered that, we would not be debating about Jason Varitek right now.

First off, anyone who thinks Scott Boras somehow screwed over Varitek on arbitration is crazy.  Boras and Tek have worked hand in glove for years.  Also, MLB players know the deal.  If Tek didn't think he was still worth $10 million, he would have accepted the Sox' offer.  Even if Tek was misled by Boras, it was only because Tek wanted the money.  Baseball is a business--and Tek is a businessman as well as a player. 

Loyalty has nothing to do with it.  If it did, Tek would have signed with the Sox long ago.  Instead, Tek's girlfriend, Heidi Watney, is reporting that somehow he didn't know the arbitration rules.  This late change of heart by the Sox' captain seems very contrived to me.  Basically, Tek found out he has little value to any team except Boston and now he wants to end his career there.

If Varitek was truly loyal, he would accept a $2 or $3 million contract to stay in Boston.  That would not be a "hometown discount," it would be slightly more than he is worth. 

Four years ago, the Sox gave Varitek a 4 year/$40 million contract.  He only had one good season during that contract: 2005.  Over the last three years of the contract, Tek hit .238 AVG/.336 OBP/.393 SLG.   

Since the end of the 2005 season, Tek has been putrid at the plate.  In three seasons, he has only had 7 months where his AVG was .250 or better; and 5 months with a .350 or better OBP.  Last year, Kevin Cash and Tek were offensive equals.  Varitek was 15th out of 21 AL catchers with 200 plate appearances in VORP.  He placed just behind Salty and Gregg Zaun.  Looking at MLV, Tek was even worse.  (MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers).  Tek placed 18th out of 21 AL catchers in MLV, better than only Molina, Johjima, and Mathis. 

Here is a comparison of Varitek and Gregg Zaun, who just signed a 1 year/$1.5 million contract with Baltimore.

2008 season:

Varitek - (423 AB) .220 AVG/.313 OBP/.359 SLG (22.2% of base-stealers caught).

Zaun -  (245 AB) .237 AVG/.340 OBP/.359 SLG (25.9% of base-stealers caught).

2006-2008:

Varitek - (1223 AB) .238 AVG/.336 OBP/.393 SLG (22.9% CS)

Zaun - (866 AB) .251 AVG/.348 OBP/.413 SLG (20.8% CS)

Both catchers are 37-year old switch-hitters, with very similar numbers.  Zaun may have been a better fit if the Sox are thinking about a catching platoon, as it appears Jason Varitek is the only person on the planet who still thinks he is a starting catcher.

I know the Boston media loves to talk about Varitek's intangibles.  That's probably because his tangibles suck so badly.  Sooner or later the Sox will have to cut ties to Tek.  When that happens, many will panic because no one else, it seems, can handle the Sox' pitching staff.  However, about 10 years ago, when Tek was learning his craft, Joe Kerrigan called the pitches from the dugout.  In my opinion, John Farrell is more than capable of doing that for any of the new Sox catchers.  Farrell knows the staff very well.  In fact, I'd credit him far more than Tek for Beckett's post-2006 turn around and the development of the young pitchers.

Again, Gregg Zaun signed a $1.5 million contract.  That's the market for Varitek.  A $2 or $3 million (no incentive) contract would be extremely generous.

According to SI's Jon Heyman, Teixeira signed an 8-year/$180 million deal with the MFY.  New York gave Teix a full no-trade clause.

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According to ESPN:

The Red Sox are having discussions with the Diamondbacks about a Julio Lugo-for-Eric Byrnes swap. Brynes would serve as a fourth outfielder for Boston; Lugo would play second base for the Diamondbacks.

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According to a press release, the Sox got right-handed relief pitcher Wes Littleton from the Rangers for two players to be named later or cash considerations. 

In 102.1 IP, the 26-year old Littleton is 5-3 (3 saves) 3.69 ERA 1.23 WHIP.  His walk and strikeout numbers aren't great: 3.25 BB/9 4.84 K/9. 

[Littleton] has limited righthanded opponents to a .236 batting average in his major league career. During his rookie campaign in 2006, the California native held righties to a .157 clip, fourth in the American League among pitchers with at least 30 appearances.

Littleton has also been successful in keeping the ball on the ground, allowing just 15 fly balls last year compared to 31 grounders. Among active hurlers with at least 100.0 innings, he ranks 14th with a career ground ball percentage of 71.5 (196 GB/78 FB).

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From Rob Bradford on WEEI:

According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the Red Sox’ initial contract offer to free agent catcher Jason Varitek this offseason was for one year. It was not determined what the monetary worth of the offer would be ...

Bradford doesn't mention how much the Sox offered, although he says it didn't come close to what Posada got ($13.1 million). That's not shocking, as Tek isn't worth that much. While I can't see Boras advising his client to take a 1-year contract, I'm glad Theo is taking a hard line. Catcher is the one true need for the Sox this off-season.

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The wild card has succeeded in getting more teams involved in pennant races, which spreads interest in late-season baseball among more markets, which is good for the game. But the system needs to be reviewed, and the fundamental question is this: Are wild-card teams penalized enough in the postseason for finishing in second place during the regular season? The answer appears to be no.

 

Tom Verducci, Sports Illustrated.

You could ditch the wild card and give the division winner with the best record a bye, while the other two play for the right to advance. Simple and clean. A possible flaw: a team that compiles a great won-lost record in a relatively weak division could get an undeserved edge with the bye. Still, it's much better than what we have now. It has no real chance, though, because the idea of additional playoff teams has taken hold.

Bob Costas

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According to both the Globe and Herald, the Red Sox will retire Johnny Pesky's number 6 prior to Friday night's game v. the MFY. 

The Red Sox will break their traditional requirements for a player's number to be retired: that he is in the Hall of Fame, that he ended his career with the club, and that he played at least 10 seasons for the Red Sox. Pesky is not in the Hall of Fame.

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The Sox' offense has been somewhat inconsistent.  Since July 1st, three players have carried the team offensively: Youkilis, Pedroia, and Lowrie.  Here's a breakdown of each Red Sox hitter since July 1st:

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The Sox have announced that Charlie Zink will take Wakefield's spot tomorrow night. 

The 28-year old knuckleballer is having his best minor league season.  He is 12-3 2.70 ERA 1.08 WHIP in 133.1 IP for the PawSox.

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Wake has been scratched from his scheduled start this Tuesday because of tightness in his shoulder, the same injury that kept him off the World Series roster.  The Sox will place him on the 15-day DL.  I guess we now know why Wake was pulled after 81 pitches in Kansas City.

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According to the Globe, David Ortiz is tentatively scheduled to return to the Red Sox on July 25. 

Papi has looked good taking batting practice against high-speed pitching machines.

"I feel good," Ortiz said. "Actually, it was my first time hitting off the machine. I was acting like I normally do, locating, check swing, swing and a miss. Stuff like that. Everything was fine. That's all I need. Make sure there's no pain when I'm doing that."

"David did well," Francona said. "He did the machine, tried to simulate as much as he could, ball down and away ball up and in. He'll go with us to New York Monday and Tuesday and hit in the cage because he has some obligations as the guy who got the most (All-Star) votes to be there represent the American League and the Red Sox."

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From boston.com:

Red Sox pitcher Justin Masterson will be sent down to Triple-A Pawtucket this week to become a reliever, Sox general manager Terry Francona announced today.

Jeff Bailey was called up to hold the roster spot until Buchholz gets called up to make a start on Friday.

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Since no one else will do it.

Line-ups:

Red Sox

Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Drew RF
Ramirez DH
Lowell 3B
Youkilis 1B
Varitek C
Moss LF
Lugo SS

Matsuzaka SP

Tampa Bay
Iwamura 2B
Crawford LF
Upton CF
Pena 1B
Longoria 3B
Floyd DH
Navarro C
Hinske RF
Bartlett SS

Kazmir SP

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Ellsbury did seem aware the team needed him to play, even with the soreness in the right wrist. And he appeared prepared to do that, though manager Terry Francona said he wanted to see how Ellsbury got through batting practice today. He said he always could insert Brandon Moss into the lineup in Ellsbury's place.

"I'm definitely happy with the turnaround from when I did it to now," Ellsbury said. "It's still sore, but you can play through soreness.

"I was pretty worried, how it felt right as it happened. It was nice to get the X-ray right away, the MRI right away, to see that everything was all right. Once you know there's no structural damage, you can play through the soreness. There's a big difference between hurting and soreness. It's going to be sore for a little while. You're never feeling 100 percent throughout the whole season on any body part, so it'll be fine."

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Since no one else would do it ...

Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon spoke earlier about the tests his team is going through as they deal with injuries. Maddon believes that injuries to Troy Percival and now Carlos Pena (broken finger) will definitely test the Rays' depth and readiness to be a contender. So far, they're passing the test with flying colors.

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EDITOR'S NOTE: Drugs broke the news first at OTM. I'm not sure what the Sox are going to do. Obviously, this is a huge loss. If they try to make a trade, every team is going to try to squeeze them for everything the Sox have because they know they are in a bad position. However ... what the Sox could do is move Manny to DH, Ellsbury to left and start Coco in center. We'd be able to keep Coco, see his defense and hopefully get him into a groove so he starts to hit again. We would, without a doubt, have the nastiest outfield in the game - Randy.

According to Tony Massarotti of the Herald , Ortiz will miss at least a month.  But he may need season-ending surgery.

According to a source, Ortiz’ wrist will be immobilized for roughly the next month to determine whether the injury can heal on its own.

Massarotti speculates:

Given the current reality concerning Ortiz, the Sox very well might have to explore the trade market for a replacement before the July 31 deadline. Of course, finding a replacement for Ortiz is a virtual impossibility given his place as perhaps the game’s premier run producer and one of its most accomplished clutch hitters.

Let's hope Ortiz is able to return to the Sox line-up this year--and doesn't suffer the fate of Nomar, who was never the same hitter after a serious wrist injury.