SB Nation User Blog: Drugs Delaney

A Simple Line-up Comparison: Sox, Yanks, Rays

Drugs Delaney — Fri, 15 May 2009 22:43:16 -0000

The Red Sox are currently second in the AL in runs and team OPS. They've done this despite a poor lead-off hitter and no production from the #3 spot in their batting order (the #8 spot is a black hole too).

Let's take a moment and back away from bashing David Ortiz, Julio Lugo, or (insert player's name). All teams have holes. I find it hard to believe that one line-up spot or player can drag a whole team down.

Here's a comparison of the Sox, MFY, and Rays based on how each spot in their line-up has done to date. By line-up spot, I am looking at the batting order position and not the player. In most cases more than one player has hit in a particular spot. For example, four players have manned the cleanup spot for the Sox: Youkilis (89 AB), Bay (37 AB), Lowell (3 AB), and Bailey (3 AB). I am counting the combined hitting totals of those four players when hitting fourth and not each player's individual stats. The stats are listed by AVG/OBP/SLG.

             Red Sox              Yankees             Rays

#1 .294/.329/.356       .267/.335/.407    .211/.313/.289

#2 .315/.407/.413       .318/.382/.601    .336/.400/.461

#3 .215/.321/.313       .206/.342/.466    .327/.382/.660

#4 .333/.439/.644       .237/.329/.407    .250/.358/.610

#5 .294/.374/.493      .255/.303/.461     .259/.346/.333

#6 .289/.431/.579      .298/.399/.500     .254/.338/.448

#7 .254/.329/.470      .328/.421/.576    .232/.284/.362

#8 .208/.313/.360      .238/.298/.400     .308/.347/.446

#9 .295/.345/.462      .280/.321/.352     .287/.331/.426

The Rays have the best 2-3-4 combination. The MFY are getting almost nothing from the 3-4-5 spots in their line-up. Yet the MFY are scoring at a slightly better rate than the Rays: 5.41 runs per game v. 5.25 runs per game. The Sox are averaging 5.63 runs per game.

It seems to me that order of the hitters means less than the aggregate. While the #3 and #8 spots are pretty dead on the Sox (none of the three teams listed has a good lead-off hitter), the Sox other six hitting spots are better than the top six on the Rays or MFY.

Food for thought?

Dice-K on 15-day DL

Drugs Delaney — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 18:49:54 -0000

Thank you Bud Selig!

The Sox placed Dice-K on the 15-day DL and called up Hunter Jones, a lefty reliever, from Pawtucket. I think it's hard to argue that the WBC isn't responsible for Matsuzaka's "arm fatigue," which is what the Sox are calling Dice-K's injury.

I'm not sure who will replace Matsuzaka in the rotation. Clay Buchholz, the most likely replacement, has a hamstring injury. It may be Masterson or Bowden. I'm not sure The Sox calling up Jones signals that Masterson will get the spot. Jones is on his way to Oakland, and Boston needs a reliever after last night's game.

Sox place Lowrie on DL

Drugs Delaney — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 23:58:30 -0000

According to Boston.com, Jed Lowrie will be placed on the 15-day DL with a left wrist injury. Gil Velazquez was called up to take Lowrie's spot.

Lowrie's injury is worrisome, as it is his second wrist injury. Right now, there's no word on how serious the injury is. Let's all hope Nick Green can fill in well until Lowrie or Lugo are ready.

Let's hope Lowrie recovers soon ...

What should the Sox do with Ellsbury?

Drugs Delaney — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 01:01:10 -0000

Is anyone else worried about Ellsbury as the Sox' lead-off hitter? In 670 career AB (including today's game), Jacoby's OBP is just .346. That's barely adequate for a tablesetter. Last year his OBP was a putrid .336

Many here at OTM have questioned the wisdom of hitting Ellsbury first. Speed doesn't matter if you can't get on base. But, it's more than that. Taco Boy just isn't a patient hitter. He doesn't work counts and, too often, he tries to hit the long ball. I'm beginning to think Ellsbury just doesn't get it. He doesn't understand his role on the team.

Today was a perfect example. While I won't fault Jacoby for being the only Boston player without a hit, three of his four at-bats were just plain awful. Here's what he did:

First inning: Strikeout (looking) - 5 pitches

Second inning: Groundout to 2B - 3 pitches

Fourth inning: Groundout to 2B - 3 pitches

Sixth inning: Groundout to 3B - 1 pitch

As far as seeing pitches, that's a pretty typical night for Ellsbury. In 2008, Jacoby was near the bottom of the AL in pitches per plate appearance. He averaged 3.59 P/PA, just ahead of Ichiro. Ellsbury was only slightly better than the famously impatient Robinson Cano (3.35 P/PA).

Ellsbury has value because of his speed and good defense. But I'm not sure he'll ever get on base well enough to be a top-of-the-order hitter. I hope I'm wrong.

Poll

What to do with Ellsbury

Leave him as lead-off hitter (He'll improve)

55 votes

Bat him 9th now (He'll never have good on-base numbers)

24 votes

Give him until the end of April before dropping him in the batting order

117 votes

Trade him to KC for Coco Crisp

26 votes

222 votes | Poll has closed

Top opening day payrolls

Drugs Delaney — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 17:57:03 -0000

Here are the top payrolls, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts . These numbers include bonuses and money owed former players.

NY Yankees - $206,811,689

NY Mets - $139,102,235

Chicago Cubs - $137,945,612

Detroit Tigers - $129,598,000

Philadelphia Phillies - $128,307,380

Boston Red Sox - $122,624,689

LA Angels - $113,709,000

LA Dodgers - $109,175,853

Houston Astros -$105,035,000

Seattle Mariners - $99,596,926

Chicago White Sox - $98,418,500

Atlanta Braves - $97,692,834

St. Louis Cardinals - $93,612,500

13 MLB teams have payrolls of $90 million or more. That's almost half the teams in both leagues.

Looking at that list, I don't think anyone can really say that the Sox and Yankees are both "Evil Empires." The Sox are 6th in total payroll, and are closer in terms of salary to the Rays than they are to the MFY. Tampa Bay raised their payroll from $43,745,597 on Opening Day last year to $64,876,368. The MFY are $67.5 million ahead of the 2nd highest payroll (the Mets).

Varitek re-signs with Sox

Drugs Delaney — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 19:32:05 -0000

Mazz is reporting that the Sox and Tek have reached an agreement on a 1-year deal with an option.

Varitek will earn $5 million in 2009, with the club holding a $5 million option for 2010. If the Red Sox do not pick up that option, Varitek has the choice of remaining with the club on a $3 million deal. In '10, he can earn another $2 million in incentives based on playing time, beginning at 80 games started.

Thus, the potential total value of the deal increases from $8 million-$10 million to $10 million-$12 million. The incentives apply to both the team and player options for 2010.

Red Sox set deadline with Jason Varitek

Drugs Delaney — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 04:09:12 -0000

MGBB noted on another thread a rumor that the Sox have offered Jason Varitek a $5 million contract. According to WEEI's Rob Bradford, the Sox have offered a possible two-year deal. The first year would be guaranteed for $5 million (with possible incentives). There would be a club option for another $5 million or a player option for $3 million.

I think this is a bad deal for the Sox. It seems to go against their policy of setting a value for a player and not over-paying. In my opinion, Jason Varitek is not worth $5 million.

In addition, a Tek signing means that either Josh Bard or George Kottaras won't make the team. While neither is a sure thing at catcher, both have far more upside than Varitek (who isn't a sure thing himself).

Aside from Tek's declining skills, one of my main reasons for not wanting Tek back is my belief that he still envisions himself as a legitimate starting--if not elite--catcher. Why else would he turn down a guaranteed $10 million in arbitration? Bradford quotes ESPN's Buster Olney regarding Tek's negotiations with the Sox:

Here is where they stand in the impasse: Varitek is asking for an annual salary close to the $10-12 million he would’ve made through arbitration, or a two-year deal for less annual salary. The Red Sox are willing to pay him much less than that, and don’t feel they owe him extra cash for services rendered in the past, and they don’t feel they owe it to him to offer a salary commensurate with what Varitek would’ve made if he had accepted arbitration.

If this is true there's no way Tek will accept being a platoon catcher in 2009.

Bradford notes that the Sox have set a deadline for the negotiations. But there's no word on the exact date of the deadline.

Counterpoint: It's Tek who is being "disloyal" [Promoted FanPost]

Drugs Delaney — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 23:15:03 -0000

In a sense this post is an over-long answer to fishfarmr, who called Sox fans critical of Jason Varitek disloyal. I believe Tek is the one who is being disloyal.

Four years ago, he and his agent (Scott Boras) held the Sox' feet to the fire before agreeing to a 4 year/$40 million contract. Tek was coming off his best season--.296 AVG/.390 OBP/.482 SLG--and he was looking for 5 years/$55 million. Had any other team offered that, we would not be debating about Jason Varitek right now.

First off, anyone who thinks Scott Boras somehow screwed over Varitek on arbitration is crazy. Boras and Tek have worked hand in glove for years. Also, MLB players know the deal. If Tek didn't think he was still worth $10 million, he would have accepted the Sox' offer. Even if Tek was misled by Boras, it was only because Tek wanted the money. Baseball is a business--and Tek is a businessman as well as a player.

Loyalty has nothing to do with it. If it did, Tek would have signed with the Sox long ago. Instead, Tek's girlfriend, Heidi Watney, is reporting that somehow he didn't know the arbitration rules. This late change of heart by the Sox' captain seems very contrived to me. Basically, Tek found out he has little value to any team except Boston and now he wants to end his career there.

If Varitek was truly loyal, he would accept a $2 or $3 million contract to stay in Boston. That would not be a "hometown discount," it would be slightly more than he is worth.

Four years ago, the Sox gave Varitek a 4 year/$40 million contract. He only had one good season during that contract: 2005. Over the last three years of the contract, Tek hit .238 AVG/.336 OBP/.393 SLG.

Since the end of the 2005 season, Tek has been putrid at the plate. In three seasons, he has only had 7 months where his AVG was .250 or better; and 5 months with a .350 or better OBP. Last year, Kevin Cash and Tek were offensive equals. Varitek was 15th out of 21 AL catchers with 200 plate appearances in VORP. He placed just behind Salty and Gregg Zaun. Looking at MLV, Tek was even worse. (MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers). Tek placed 18th out of 21 AL catchers in MLV, better than only Molina, Johjima, and Mathis.

Here is a comparison of Varitek and Gregg Zaun, who just signed a 1 year/$1.5 million contract with Baltimore.

2008 season:

Varitek - (423 AB) .220 AVG/.313 OBP/.359 SLG (22.2% of base-stealers caught).

Zaun - (245 AB) .237 AVG/.340 OBP/.359 SLG (25.9% of base-stealers caught).

2006-2008:

Varitek - (1223 AB) .238 AVG/.336 OBP/.393 SLG (22.9% CS)

Zaun - (866 AB) .251 AVG/.348 OBP/.413 SLG (20.8% CS)

Both catchers are 37-year old switch-hitters, with very similar numbers. Zaun may have been a better fit if the Sox are thinking about a catching platoon, as it appears Jason Varitek is the only person on the planet who still thinks he is a starting catcher.

I know the Boston media loves to talk about Varitek's intangibles. That's probably because his tangibles suck so badly. Sooner or later the Sox will have to cut ties to Tek. When that happens, many will panic because no one else, it seems, can handle the Sox' pitching staff. However, about 10 years ago, when Tek was learning his craft, Joe Kerrigan called the pitches from the dugout. In my opinion, John Farrell is more than capable of doing that for any of the new Sox catchers. Farrell knows the staff very well. In fact, I'd credit him far more than Tek for Beckett's post-2006 turn around and the development of the young pitchers.

Again, Gregg Zaun signed a $1.5 million contract. That's the market for Varitek. A $2 or $3 million (no incentive) contract would be extremely generous.

MFY sign Teixeira

Drugs Delaney — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 20:41:03 -0000

According to SI's Jon Heyman , Teixeira signed an 8-year/$180 million deal with the MFY. New York gave Teix a full no-trade clause.

This makes a lot of sense for the MFY, who really needed a bat. ESPN is now reporting the same thing.

The agreement with Teixeira gives New York the four highest-paid players in baseball -- third baseman Alex Rodriguez, shortstop Derek Jeter, Sabathia and Texiera.

I guess the pundits will now make the MFY the favorites to win it all.

Lugo for Byrnes?

Drugs Delaney — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 12:25:31 -0000

According to ESPN:

The Red Sox are having discussions with the Diamondbacks about a Julio Lugo-for-Eric Byrnes swap. Brynes would serve as a fourth outfielder for Boston; Lugo would play second base for the Diamondbacks.

This actually makes some sense. Byrnes would be the right-handed hitting 4th OF the Sox need. Over the last three seasons, Byrnes hit .283 AVG/.351 OBP/.516 SLG against lefties. Byrnes has one advantage over Baldelli: he can start if/when Drew gets hurt.