SB Nation User Blog: Drugs Delaney

Sox, Wakefield Agree to 2-year/$5 Million Contract

Drugs Delaney — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:38:10 -0000

According to Rob Bradford of WEEI, the Sox will not pick up Wake's perpetual $4 million option.

Wake will be guaranteed $5 million--$3.5 million in 2010 and $1.5 million in 2011. The deal has options which could net Wake a total of $7 million over two years, $1 million less than the Sox would have paid had they picked up the option this year and next. This is a good deal for the Sox and for Wake, who needs just 18 wins to be the Sox' all-time leader.

Rosenthal says the Angels may run wild. A review of the season series.

Drugs Delaney — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 22:40:56 -0000

Randy posted a link to a Ken Rosenthal article predicting an LA victory in the ALDS. The two teams played 9 times this year, with the Angels winning 5 games. During the season, Angels base-runners stole 15 bases and were only caught twice. However, looking at the game-by-game results, I'm not sure LA's running game had much impact in the regular season. Here's a recap of the season series:

April 10th - Angels 6, Red Sox 3

LA steals 4 bases off catcher George Kottaras, 3 withWakefield on the mound. The Angels score 3 runs on 4 hits in the 2nd. Kendrick steals a base in the inning, but is stranded on 3rd. While Wakefield allows 11 base-runners (6 hits, 5 walks) in 6 innings, he only allows the three 2nd inning runs.

Masterson came on in the 7th. Abreu led off with a single andstole second. Guerrero singled him to third, and he scored on a sac fly. While it would seem the SB led directly to a run, the Angels tacked on two more runs in the inning on two more hits (a Morales double and a Mathis single) and an IBB.

Incidentally, the Sox were 2 for 2 in steals in the game, and one runner (Ellsbury) came around to score.

LA: 4 for 4 in SB. 1 base-stealer scored.

April 11th - Red Sox 5, Angels 4

Brad Penny out-pitched Joe Saunders. The Sox were 1 for 2 in SB attempts. LA was 1 for 1. None of the base-stealers figured in the scoring.

LA: 1 for 1 in SB. No runs resulted from the stolen base.

April 12 - Angels 5, Red Sox 4

LA was 1 for 2 in SB attempts, but didn't score a run as a result of the SB. The Sox were 2 for 3. Dustin Pedroia stole third and scored on Napoli's throwing error. In this first series, the Sox stole 5 bases and LA 6 bases. Two of Boston's base-stealers scored, compared to only 1 for LA.

LA: 1 for 2 in SB. No runs resulted from the stolen base.

May 12 - Red Sox 4, Angels 3

The Angels were 1 for 2 in stolen base attempts. The Sox were 1 for 1. Abreu stole off Paps in the 9th, but was stranded.

LA: 1 for 2 in SB. No runs as a result of the steal.

May 13 - Angels 8, Red Sox 4

The Angels were 2 for 2 in SBs in the game against Kottaras. Wake wasn't sharp. He allowed 7 ER in 4.2 IP. LA scored 5 runs on 4 hits in the 3rd. Willets led off with a single and stole second. Wake walked the next hitter (Abreu), before allowing back-to-back singles to Hunter and Morales, scoring two runs. The next hitter, Napoli, hit a 3-run HR. Wake walked two more hitters in the inning, but they didn't score.

While we'll credit Willets' steal with a run scored, based on the results of the inning, LA probably would have scored even without the steal.

LA: 2 for 2 in SB. 1 run scored.

May 14th - Angels 5, Red Sox 4 (12 innings)

LA was 2 for 2--both off Paps. But neither runner scored. The Sox were 1 for 1. MDC lost it in the 12th.

LA: 2 for 2 in SB. Neither runner scored.

September 15 - Red Sox 4, Angels 1

LA was 2 for 2 off Dice-K and Tek. But the SBs didn't have an effect on the scoring.

LA: 2 for 2 in SB. Zero runs as a result of steals.

September 16 - Red Sox 9, Angels 8

Both teams were 1 for 1 in SB attempts. Neither team's base-stealer scored.

LA: 1 for 1 in SB. No runs scored as a result.

September 17 - Angels 4, Red Sox 3

The Angels had 1 SB in their only attempt. But that runner failed to score.

LA: 1 for 1 in SB. The base-runner did not score.

******************************************************************************************************************

LA scored a whopping 3 runs from their 15 steals against the Sox in the regular season. Of those 3 runs, 2 probably would have scored anyway. If Rosenthal's prediction of LA's running game leading them to victory is to come true, it will have to have a far more decisive impact in the ALDS than it did in the regular season.

In my opinion, this series will be one by the team that pitches and hits better. I also believe the Sox' problems throwing out base-runners had less impact on the regular season than many suggest. After all, Boston had the 3rd best record in baseball, and couldn't throw anyone out. As the example of these nine games shows, stolen bases don't always lead to runs.

Is it important to go into the playoffs "hot"?

Drugs Delaney — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 23:58:55 -0000

You always hear how important it for teams to peak at the right time. But when is the right time? When teams play well down the stretch and continue to play well late into October, you often hear how they got hot when it mattered. When a team plays well in August or September but fall short in the post-season, many will say that team peaked too soon. Let's look at every AL playoff year since 2000 to see whether "hot" teams have an advantage in October.

2000: East - MFY (87-74); Central - White Sox (95-67); West - A's (91-70); WC - Mariners (91-71)

Hottest team: Oakland - The A's were 21-7 in September and won 14 of their final 17 games. Seattle also finished strong, going 19-10 in the final month. The M's won 13 of their last 18 games. 3 of their 5 losses in that stretch were against Oakland.

Coldest team: MFY - The 2000 MFY are a great example of a team backing into the post-season. They were bad in September (13-17) and even worse down the stretch, losing 13 of their final 15 games. They lost their final 7 games of the season, a stretch that included back-to-back sweeps by the two worst teams in the AL East: Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

Playoff Results: ALDS - (Seattle beat Chicago, 3-0; MFY beat Oakland, 3-2) ALCS - (MFY beat Seattle, 4-2)

MFY win WS, 4-1.

2001: East - MFY (95-65); Central - Indians (91-71); West - Mariners (116-46); WC - A's (102-60)

Hottest team: Oakland - The A's were 23-4 after September 1st, winning 14 of their last 17 games. 2 of their final 3 losses were to the Mariners, who also finished the season strong: 19-10 after September 1st, winning 13 of their final 18 games (3 of their final 5 losses came at the hands of the A's).

Coldest team: Cleveland - The Tribe were 15-13 after September 1st, and lost 9 of their final 15 games. Most of the damage was done in October, when they went 2-5. The MFY were 16-9 after September 1st, but didn't enter the playoffs on a roll. They lost 8 of their final 15 games.

Playoff Results: ALDS - (Seattle beat Cleveland, 3-2; MFY beat Oakland, 3-2) ALCS (MFY beat Seattle, 4-1)

MFY lose WS, 3-4

2002: East - MFY (103-58); Central - Twins (94-67); West - A's (103-59); WC - Angels (99-63)

Hottest teams: New York and Oakland - The MFY were 19-8 in the final month, winning 10 of their last 15 games. Oakland was 18-8 and won 11 of their final 15.

Coldest team: Anaheim - While Minnesota had a worse overall record in September, the Twins (9-6 in their final 15 games) finished the season stronger than the Angels (5-8 in their last 13 games).

Playoff Results: ALDS - (Minnesota beat Oakland, 3-2; Anaheim beat MFY, 3-1) ALCS (Anaheim beat Minnesota, 4-1)

Anaheim wins WS, 4-3

2003: East - MFY (101-61); Central - Twins (90-72); West - A's (96-66); WC - Red Sox (95-67)

Hottest team: Minnesota - While all the AL playoff teams finished well in 2003, the Twins were the best down the stretch. Minnesota finished the season 19-7, winning 12 of their final 15 games. The MFY went 18-9 to finish the year, winning 10 of their last 15 games. The Sox and A's were 17-9 and 14-10 respectively. Both teams won 9 of the last 15 games.

Playoff Results: ALDS - (MFY beat Minnesota, 3-1; Boston beat Oakland, 3-2) ALCS (MFY beat Grady Little, 4-3)

MFY lost WS, 2-4

2004: East - MFY (101-61); Central - Twins (92-70); West - Angels (92-70); WC - Red Sox (98-64)

Hottest teams: Boston and New York - The Sox finished 2004 strong. They were 21-11 in September. The MFY were almost as good, going 20-11 in the final month to hold onto first place. Both teams won 9 of their final 15.

Coldest team: Minnesota - The Twins were very good in September (19-12), but dropped 9 of their final 15 in the regular season.

Playoff Results: ALDS - (MFY beat Minnesota, 3-1; Boston beat Anaheim, 3-0) ALCS (Boston beat MFY, 4-3)

Boston wins WS, 4-0

2005: East - MFY (95-67); Central - White Sox (99-63); West - Angels (95-67); WC- Red Sox (95-67)

Hottest team: Los Angeles of Anaheim - While all four teams finished the year playing well, the Angels (21-9) were the best. LA won 13 of their final 15 games.

Playoff Results: ALDS - (Chicago beat Boston, 3-0; LA beat New York, 3-2) ALCS (Chicago beat LA, 4-1)

Chicago won WS, 4-0

2006: East - MFY (97-65); Central - Twins (96-66); West - A's (93-69); WC - Tigers (95-67)

Hottest team: Minnesota - The Twins finished the 2006 season by going 19-11, overtaking the Tigers to win the Central Division. They won 10 of their last 15 games.

Coldest team: Detroit - The Tigers has a losing record in September: 12-16. They lost the division, losing 8 of their last 15 games.

Playoff Results: ALDS (Oakland beat Minnesota, 3-0; Detroit beat MFY, 3-1) ALCS (Detroit beat Minnesota, 4-0)

Detroit lost WS, 1-4

2007: East - Red Sox (96-66); Central - Indians (96-66); West Angels (94-68); WC - MFY (94-68)

Hottest teams: New York and Cleveland - The MFY and Indians won 10 of their final 15 games. The MFY finished September with a 19-8 record and The Tribe were 19-9.

Coldest team: Boston - While the Sox had a better September record than the Angels, LA won 8 of their final 15 games. Boston lost 8 of their final 15.

Playoff Results: ALDS (Cleveland beat MFY, 3-1; Boston beat LA, 3-0) ALCS (Boston beat Cleveland, 4-3)

Boston won WS, 4-0

2008: East - Rays (97-65); Central - White Sox (89-74); West - Angels (100-62); WC - Red Sox (95-67)

Hottest team: Los Angeles - The Angels capped off a 17-9 September by winning 10 of their final 15 games. Both the Red Sox and Tampa Bay won 9 of their last 15, although the Rays had a losing record in September (13-14). The Sox were strong in the final month of the season: 16-10.

Coldest team: Chicago - The White Sox were bad in September (12-15) and even worse down the stretch, losing 9 of their last 15 games. Tampa had a bad final month overall, but finished strong.

Playoff Results: ALDS (Tampa beat Chicago, 3-1; Boston beat LA, 3-1) ALCS (Tampa beat Boston, 4-3)

Tampa lost WS, 1-4

Looking back, there doesn't seem to be any advantage to going into the playoffs "hot". Only in 2004 did the hottest team at the end of the season, the Boston Red Sox, go on to win a championship. The 2000 MFY were one of the worst teams to ever win a WS. Anaheim did not finish the season strong in 2002, but still won it all. In 2006, the Tigers backed into the playoffs and still made it to the WS. Detroit lost to an awful Cardinal team that lost 10 of their final 14 games, and only managed 83 wins for the year.

Regarding this year's Red Sox, they're a hard team to gauge. They've had little to play for in the past couple of weeks. You have to be a bit concerned about Lowell's health and a few of the pitchers. But, they're a pretty solid team overall.

If the Sox lose to the Angels in the ALDS, everyone will point to how the team played down the stretch. If they go deep in the post-season, the same people will laud Tito for resting his players and putting the playoffs ahead of meaningless September games. We'll find out next week.

What to do with Jason Varitek?

Drugs Delaney — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 15:51:20 -0000

The playoffs are coming and the Sox will have to set their roster soon. The two biggest decision will involve Jason Varitek and Manny Delcarmen. Both players have struggled. But since Tek is more likely to get meaningful post-season playing time, we'll leave the MDC discussion for another time.

Tek is hitting a robust .211 AVG/.315 OBP/.397 SLG (.712 OPS/.309 wOBA) this year. Since the ASB, he has been putrid: .158 AVG/.250 OBP/.242 SLG (.492 OPS). Based on OPS, he has been the Sox' worst hitter (Kotasy's and Woodward's 7 ABs each notwithstanding). Looking at those numbers, it would seem the decision is an easy one: Tek should ride the pine in the playoffs.

But it's not that easy. Tek has been Beckett's and Dice-K's catcher. Here's Tito's response when asked by Rob Bradford if VMart will catch Beckett in the playoffs:

“You know, I don’t know. It’s not a bad question,” Francona said. “I don’t know. That’s the answer. I just don’t know. It’s a legitimate question. To be honest with you, I know the numbers with ‘Tek are phenomenal and I believe in that. I also think that the night that Victor caught Beckett [in Toronto] was a crazy night.”

“I just, again, I’m very aware that when Victor catches, our lineup is more potent. Also, our goal is to win that game. That’s where we probably have to sit down at some point and think about … I just don’t know the answer. I certainly don’t think it’s a bad question. I just don’t know the answer.”

Remember, VMart has only caught Beckett once this year and has yet to catch Dice-K. Beckett is clearly more comfortable throwing to Tek right now. Here are his comments on the subject:

“I’ll throw to whomever they put back there,” said the Red Sox starter. “We’ve just got to figure things out. We’re adults. We’re grown-ups. We have to figure (expletive) like that out. You can’t just go about your life hoping things work out because if you’re going about your life hoping things are going to turn out they’re (expletive) not.”

“It matters. Don’t get me wrong. It matters,” he said of working with a new catcher. “Jason Varitek is very special to me because we end up getting in a rhythm very, very quickly. But the bottom line is that it’s your fault. If you can’t execute a pitch and you give up a hard hit ball it’s your fault. Anybody who tells you different is probably a (wimp).

“For me the thing is that I throw so many pitches. For somebody new it’s very difficult to remember everything I throw because I throw everything to both sides of the plate. I might want that pitch, but they might set up to the wrong spot, which, like I said, is still my fault. I need to shake until I get what I want.”

Here's Beckett on throwing to a new catcher:

“It’s weird because they’re trying to figure you out and you’re trying to figure them out,” he said. “Neither of you want to step on each other’s toes. It takes time.”

One could argue: if Beckett is more comfortable throwing to Tek, he'll likely pitch better with Tek behind the plate. Are the Sox better off with a comfortable ace pitcher and a weaker line-up? Because Tek is so bad offensively it would make sense to pinch-hit for him in close games. Does that mean the Sox will carry three catchers in the post-season? They may do that in the ALDS, where you need fewer pitchers. But what happens if they advance?

It looks like Tek will catch both Beckett and Dice-K in the playoffs. VMart has not caught Dice-K and has only caught Beckett once. Both pitchers really aren't that familiar with him--and you don't want to experiment in October. Because of Tek, I think Lester should start Game 1 of the ALDS. Lester has been the Sox best pitcher. But Beckett has been the #1 since 2007 and has the best post-season resume. Here's the problem: the Sox are much better with Lester, VMart, Youk, and Lowell than they are with Beckett, Tek, VMart, and Youk--even if Beckett is vintage post-season Beckett.

Tito has a lot of decision to make. I have faith in Francona. He is a very good manager. Despite injuries and a log-jammed roster, Tito has the Sox on pace to win 97 games. He has a tough decision to make. Based on the fact that Tek is still catching Beckett and Dice-K, it looks like Tek will get significant time behind the plate in October.

Poll

How should the Sox use Tek in the playoffs?

He should be benched. The team is much better with VMart catching.

49 votes

He should catch Beckett and Dice-K.

44 votes

He should only catch Beckett

16 votes

He should only catch Dice-K

10 votes

119 votes | Poll has closed

The Julio Lugo Era is Over

Drugs Delaney — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 16:31:18 -0000

Rob Bradford od WEEI is reporting that the Sox have DFA'd Julio Lugo.

According to a source familiar with the situation, the Red Sox have designated Julio Lugo for assignment. The Red Sox will have 10 days to assign Lugo's contract to another major or minor league club, whether it be via trade or through waivers.

This means that both Lowell and Buchholz will be in the line-up tonight. Jed Lowrie will likely take Buchholz's spot tomorrow.

A Simple Line-up Comparison: Sox, Yanks, Rays

Drugs Delaney — Fri, 15 May 2009 22:43:16 -0000

The Red Sox are currently second in the AL in runs and team OPS. They've done this despite a poor lead-off hitter and no production from the #3 spot in their batting order (the #8 spot is a black hole too).

Let's take a moment and back away from bashing David Ortiz, Julio Lugo, or (insert player's name). All teams have holes. I find it hard to believe that one line-up spot or player can drag a whole team down.

Here's a comparison of the Sox, MFY, and Rays based on how each spot in their line-up has done to date. By line-up spot, I am looking at the batting order position and not the player. In most cases more than one player has hit in a particular spot. For example, four players have manned the cleanup spot for the Sox: Youkilis (89 AB), Bay (37 AB), Lowell (3 AB), and Bailey (3 AB). I am counting the combined hitting totals of those four players when hitting fourth and not each player's individual stats. The stats are listed by AVG/OBP/SLG.

             Red Sox              Yankees             Rays

#1 .294/.329/.356       .267/.335/.407    .211/.313/.289

#2 .315/.407/.413       .318/.382/.601    .336/.400/.461

#3 .215/.321/.313       .206/.342/.466    .327/.382/.660

#4 .333/.439/.644       .237/.329/.407    .250/.358/.610

#5 .294/.374/.493      .255/.303/.461     .259/.346/.333

#6 .289/.431/.579      .298/.399/.500     .254/.338/.448

#7 .254/.329/.470      .328/.421/.576    .232/.284/.362

#8 .208/.313/.360      .238/.298/.400     .308/.347/.446

#9 .295/.345/.462      .280/.321/.352     .287/.331/.426

The Rays have the best 2-3-4 combination. The MFY are getting almost nothing from the 3-4-5 spots in their line-up. Yet the MFY are scoring at a slightly better rate than the Rays: 5.41 runs per game v. 5.25 runs per game. The Sox are averaging 5.63 runs per game.

It seems to me that order of the hitters means less than the aggregate. While the #3 and #8 spots are pretty dead on the Sox (none of the three teams listed has a good lead-off hitter), the Sox other six hitting spots are better than the top six on the Rays or MFY.

Food for thought?

Dice-K on 15-day DL

Drugs Delaney — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 18:49:54 -0000

Thank you Bud Selig!

The Sox placed Dice-K on the 15-day DL and called up Hunter Jones, a lefty reliever, from Pawtucket. I think it's hard to argue that the WBC isn't responsible for Matsuzaka's "arm fatigue," which is what the Sox are calling Dice-K's injury.

I'm not sure who will replace Matsuzaka in the rotation. Clay Buchholz, the most likely replacement, has a hamstring injury. It may be Masterson or Bowden. I'm not sure The Sox calling up Jones signals that Masterson will get the spot. Jones is on his way to Oakland, and Boston needs a reliever after last night's game.

Sox place Lowrie on DL

Drugs Delaney — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 23:58:30 -0000

According to Boston.com, Jed Lowrie will be placed on the 15-day DL with a left wrist injury. Gil Velazquez was called up to take Lowrie's spot.

Lowrie's injury is worrisome, as it is his second wrist injury. Right now, there's no word on how serious the injury is. Let's all hope Nick Green can fill in well until Lowrie or Lugo are ready.

Let's hope Lowrie recovers soon ...

What should the Sox do with Ellsbury?

Drugs Delaney — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 01:01:10 -0000

Is anyone else worried about Ellsbury as the Sox' lead-off hitter? In 670 career AB (including today's game), Jacoby's OBP is just .346. That's barely adequate for a tablesetter. Last year his OBP was a putrid .336

Many here at OTM have questioned the wisdom of hitting Ellsbury first. Speed doesn't matter if you can't get on base. But, it's more than that. Taco Boy just isn't a patient hitter. He doesn't work counts and, too often, he tries to hit the long ball. I'm beginning to think Ellsbury just doesn't get it. He doesn't understand his role on the team.

Today was a perfect example. While I won't fault Jacoby for being the only Boston player without a hit, three of his four at-bats were just plain awful. Here's what he did:

First inning: Strikeout (looking) - 5 pitches

Second inning: Groundout to 2B - 3 pitches

Fourth inning: Groundout to 2B - 3 pitches

Sixth inning: Groundout to 3B - 1 pitch

As far as seeing pitches, that's a pretty typical night for Ellsbury. In 2008, Jacoby was near the bottom of the AL in pitches per plate appearance. He averaged 3.59 P/PA, just ahead of Ichiro. Ellsbury was only slightly better than the famously impatient Robinson Cano (3.35 P/PA).

Ellsbury has value because of his speed and good defense. But I'm not sure he'll ever get on base well enough to be a top-of-the-order hitter. I hope I'm wrong.

Poll

What to do with Ellsbury

Leave him as lead-off hitter (He'll improve)

55 votes

Bat him 9th now (He'll never have good on-base numbers)

24 votes

Give him until the end of April before dropping him in the batting order

117 votes

Trade him to KC for Coco Crisp

26 votes

222 votes | Poll has closed

Top opening day payrolls

Drugs Delaney — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 17:57:03 -0000

Here are the top payrolls, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts . These numbers include bonuses and money owed former players.

NY Yankees - $206,811,689

NY Mets - $139,102,235

Chicago Cubs - $137,945,612

Detroit Tigers - $129,598,000

Philadelphia Phillies - $128,307,380

Boston Red Sox - $122,624,689

LA Angels - $113,709,000

LA Dodgers - $109,175,853

Houston Astros -$105,035,000

Seattle Mariners - $99,596,926

Chicago White Sox - $98,418,500

Atlanta Braves - $97,692,834

St. Louis Cardinals - $93,612,500

13 MLB teams have payrolls of $90 million or more. That's almost half the teams in both leagues.

Looking at that list, I don't think anyone can really say that the Sox and Yankees are both "Evil Empires." The Sox are 6th in total payroll, and are closer in terms of salary to the Rays than they are to the MFY. Tampa Bay raised their payroll from $43,745,597 on Opening Day last year to $64,876,368. The MFY are $67.5 million ahead of the 2nd highest payroll (the Mets).