According to Rotoworld, Dwight Howard reportedly told the Magic during a meeting on Wednesday that he will opt-in for the final year of his contract, keeping him with the franchise through the 2012-13 season.

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This summer, over on the Forums side of the site we're going run a weekly feature called "Under the Microscope," where everyone gets a chance to pose questions to a featured site member.  This week, the subject is the poster known as Calamity.  It's really a blast, and some of you may enjoy being put under the microscope yourselves later in the summer.  This is a chance to have some fun and build some community spirit during the off-season.  So, if you've been looking for an excuse to sign up for the forums, now's the time!  Just click the "forums" link on the top right of the site menu bar.

The thread can be found in the "fun and games" sub-forum.  See you there!

if Brandan Wright doesn't play, and play soon, I will scream.  He was acquired for one reason:  To take a look at him and evaluate whether he will be able to contribute, and therefore whether to resign him after his contract expires.  Billy King thinks he has potential.  But, as usual, the final decision sits in the hands of Avery Johnson.  Gadzuric has a zero chance of being resigned, and let's face it, there's no reason to make some "push" for the playoffs.  Why this guy is getting minutes over Wright escapes me.  I want to see how Wright can run the floor, and if DWill can help him reach his potential, much like JKidd did for Todd Mac, Mikki Moore, etc.

Avery already destroyed the value of Troy Murphy and Terrence Williams.  Enough with this already.

In some ways, basketball is like chess:  To be successful, each team must identify and exploit mismatches.  In chess, these are called "imbalances."  An imbalance is neither good nor bad; what matters is how the player utilizes them to his advantage by maximizes the positives and minimizes the weaknesses of the position.

So too with basketball.  If the coach is worth his salt, he uses the team imbalances to develop a "team identity" to create mismatches on the court.

If all goes well, tonight will be Troy Murphy's debut with the Nets.  With Murphy in the fold, the Nets will have a significant advantage in the frontcourt over most teams.  These guys are multi-talented, they are versatile.    Murphy, Lopez, Petro, Humphries and, as we are seeing, Favors, are all plus rebounders.  Lopez and Petro have solid mid-range jumpers, and Murphy can shoot past the three-point line. 

I'm going on the assumption that the Nets will try to resign Murphy (at a lower salary) in the offseason.

There is no reason to break up this group to acquire a wing like Carmelo when it would cost the Nets their frontcourt advantage!  The Nets need to build their team around this strength, not destroy it.  There are few teams that can defend at both the 4 and 5 simultaneously.  

Could the Nets use a better, more versatile shooter on the wing?  Of course.  Morrow is a solid shooter, and we hope that Outlaw will prove to be one, but both are limited in other areas.  But here's the thing:  With the Nets' advantage inside, they don't need a superstar wing.  Any decent wing should be licking their chops at the prospect of playing with the Nets' frontcourt, because of all the open looks he'll get.   Stars are made, not born.

How many teams can boast having three bigs that each average a double-double?  That's where the Nets are going to be in the near future.  Use it--don't destroy it.  Let's watch this group of frontcourt players perform together for a few months before considering breaking it up in a poorly-thought-out deal for a volume-shooting wing.  Let's make the opposition try to match up with this frontcourt before deciding to make drastic changes.

[this post brought to you by the "Keep Derrick Favors" movement]

The Nets need a PF.  Craig Smith needs a contract.  Why this is a perfect match.

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Hi everyone, late start, but a lot to talk about. Right now the score is 2-2, we've just gotten started. I'll try to update as much as possible, given my rudimentary typing skills.

One thing we often forget about, is that the summer leagus is the first experience a lot of these kids with the 24 second shot clock. In the earlier game today, there were a number of late shot and shot clock violations.

Looks like TWill is acting as the PG, even with Jrue on the floor. We'll see if this lasts.

Had a nice conversation with Coach Frank earlier . . . I'll try to fill you in at halftime . . .

CDR bringing up the ball on that possessions, with Jrue still acting as the offguard.

CDR still acting as a point guard. He drew a blocking foul on the last possession, but missed bot FTs. CDR is coming off of two subpar games. Coach Frank says that he isn't tired, and they're hoping he snaps out of it today.

OK, end of the first quarter with the score 18-14, celtics.

Sitting within ten feet of me are Lawrence Frank, who is talking to Eddie Jordan, and Gregg Polinsky. Gregg is looking forward to his upcoming basketball camp for kids . . .

Nets/Sixers look are in danger of going the entire week without a victory . . .

TWill is impressing me on the defensive end. Guarding his man one-on-one, he rarely gets beaten. He had a little trouble with Westbrook yesterday, but other than that, all good.

TWill throws the ball away. :-(

At the half, it it 42-35.

Just asked Gregg Polinsky about what attracted them--and him in particular--to Twill before the draft. He answered that they love his versatility and his size, and think that he has the potential to be a solid defender. He also answered a long-standing question of mine: He said that there is not a concerted effort to stay away from the college freshmen, but that Rod looks for certain "attributes" when drafting players. Those first few points are things that the Nets FO has discussed before over the past month or so.

TWill has been playing point a lot today so far, so it looks like they are giving him a chance to streatch that versatilty.

OK, here are some halftime stats. TWill has two points on one-for-five shooting. 0-2 from the line. 3 assists.

CDR is 2-4 for 4 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 TO. TWill has 3 TOs. Speights and Forbes have 8 points each to lead the team.

Earlier, I spoke to Coach Frank a little bit. He said that they are pretty happy with TWill, and like how he has been attacking the rim more over the past few days. He also said that they are generally happy with the experience of sharing a team with the sixers. ALthough he conceded that the different groups of players all have different agendas (philly/nets/free agents) he stated that they are getting something out of it--you can get something positive out of every esperience--and that they'd do it again rather than not fielding a team at all.

He also recommedned a book for my daughter, so my wife wouldn't have to pay shipping on her amazon order.

Nets/Sixers have a chance in this one . . . it's 47-45 in the middle of the third. Some nice cordination between CDR and TWill, leading to a layup by CDR. CDR was beaten defensively a few minutes earlier, and Coach Frank was vibily frustrated. . . .

CDR hits a pull up jumper. He's definitely handling the ball more, even with Jrue on the court. As a point, CDR is NOT vocal at all--one thing you can get out of being in a gym this size.

timeout, with the score 61-52 celtics. 3rd quarter winding down

Twill likes to pass, but sometimes he passes it to the wrong team.

Witht he exception of the TOs, TWill looks pretty comfortable on both ends of the court. Still playing a lot of point, and he hit a 3-pointer moments ago.

Nice outlet pass by TWill leading to a slam by Speights. Nets/Sixers now down by just 8, with four minutes to go in this one . . .

Nets/sixers try a full-court press, which fails miserably. Celtics by 11.

While TWill seems competent at the point, he lacks the footspeed of the elite PGs. Heck, forget abut the elite PGs. As a PG, his role will be limited to just bringing the ball up the court and making that initial pass. I haven't seen anything to indicate that he could drive by his man and attack the basket while handling the ball. Someone let me know if you disagree . . .

Well, it's alomost over. On the bright side, even a week of bad basketball is better than being in the office.

Hello from sunny Orlando. I'm here at the Orlando Magic's training facility, for today's game against the Thunder. I'm going to try my best to blog the action, but be forewarned: I'm a horrible typer. We'll see how long my laptop battery lasts.

Asked CDR if the Nets plan to win today; he responded, "I sure hope so." He seems pretty chipper.

Warmups right now. Game will start at 3:00, which is in about 20 minutes.

Rod and Kiki just arrived . . . a full house of Nets FO personnel.

Coach Frank is here, laughing and holding a cup of coffee.

OK, game is going to start in about ten minutes.

Some sloppy play, which you're probably seeing on the Magic internet feed.

BJ Mullins is looking very active around the basket for OKC. CDR looks comfortable, but there is a disconnect between two halfs of the team--the nets half and the sixer half--and more often than not they will just pass to their real-life teammamtes. wow--big slam by mullens.

Right now TWill is the only real player on the court for the Nets/sixers. Let's see what happens. he's matched up with Harden, the rookie from ASU.

End of the first quarter. Nets/Sixers getting smashed, 27-12. Westbrook looks good for OKC, as does Mullins, who is just dominating the paint. For the Nets, TWill showed some strong man defense against harden. On offense, he has been hanging out on the perimeter and not moving without the ball.

33-20, with just over 5 minutes left in the half. Jrue with the steal, blocked by westbrook at the rim.

TWill is playing point, and is getting abused by Westbrook. On offense, TWill is taking a few dribbles and tossing a light pass to one of the wings. He's not showing much thus far, when he's not on the break.

Twill picked it up defensively on Westbrook in the last two minutes. Halftime now, with the score 39-33.

Some halftime stats:

TWill: 8 points on 3-of 5 shooting and 3 rebounds. CDR is o-for-1 from the floor for zero points. He does have two assists, though.

Mullens is high man with 12 on 6-for-9.

Beautiful play by TWill--block, dribbles the length of the court for a contested dunk. Very aggressive move.

I'm sitting next to Gregg Polinsky . . .

CDR is starting to look a bit tired. At this point of the week, the games start to take theri toll and exhaustion sets in. At least I'd think so.

Me, I'm starting to get hungry . . . wonder if the buffet is stocked yet. Kiki was eating cookies earlier.

CDR and Twill sitting down to start the fourth. Nets/sixers down by 17 . . . Westbrook, Harden, and Mullens are just dominating the game for OKC.

CDR and TWill reenter with about six minutes left on the clock.

TWill continuing to look more cortable at the point. He's matched up with Westbrook, which is a tough assignment.

Harden has the number 13 on one side of his uniform, and 3 on the other . . .

Game over: 83-62 OKC, just as my battery is down to the fumes. Back tomorrow.

Ghoti blogs about the checkered and varied history of players named Williams that have been on the Nets throughout the years. Terrence: Take heart. Even with your Barbie backpack and SpongBob socks, you have a long way to go before you could be considered the most colorful member of this group.

• A History of Williamses - Ghoti - NetsDaily Blog

Written by Ghoti

I have spent the last month reading all of the different indicators to help predict which team will draft what player.

History tells us, I was informed, that the Bulls like Final Four participants, the Kings only like players they work out, the Spurs like players from around the globe, the Bobcats only consider players from the ACC, yada, yada, etc.

The Nets? They like tall players for their position, no medical issues, and intelligence.

But what I didn't see anywhere is the most reliable indicator of all - one that would have nailed this selection with 100% rock-solid, assured accuracy.

The guy's name is Williams.

I don't know if any franchise out there has so much history with one surname. It's a varied and interesting group to say the least.

Buck Williams - He's the granddaddy of the Nets' Williamses. Played eight seasons for the Nets. One of the league's most fearsome rebounders. He brought the organization respect during some tough times. Still the franchise leader in several categories.

Ray Williams - Gus's younger brother averaged over 20 PPG for a pretty good Nets team in 1981-82. Was reacquired and played briefly in 1986-87.

Reggie Williams - "Silk" was best known as a Denver Nugget. He did end his career as a Net in 1997, suiting up for 11 games.

Kevin Williams - The small guard played 41 games as a Net in 1988-89 averaging 4.3 PPG.

Jayson Williams - The troubled PF finally shed his demons and became one of the league's most ferocious rebounders. Played seven seasons for the Nets, retiring as the franchise's second leading boardsman. Was an All-Star in 1998. Wrote a well-received book called "Loose Balls". Lost his way after being forced to retire in 1999. Drunkenly killed a man in his house and haphazardly tried to cover it up. Currently punching random people in the face and getting tazered by police while awaiting re-trial for manslaugher.

Aaron Williams - Rugged PF was a key component on the Nets' two finals teams in 2001-02 and 2002-03. Had his best seasons during his five year tenure as a Net. Was an efficient scorer, fine rebounder and extremely strong defender who could guard players much larger than his 6'9". I never heard a Net fan say a bad word about him. Very popular. A real lunchpail guy. Part of the trade that brought Vince Carter to the Nets.

Eric Williams - The New Jersey native was another popular player in his travels around the league. Played 21 games for the Nets in 2004-05. Another piece sent to Toronto in the Vince Carter trade.

Marcus Williams - Notorious for his involvement in a scheme to sell laptops stolen from his fellow UConn students, this pudgy PG showed tremendous court vision during his college career. The Nets were thrilled to nab him with the 22nd pick in the 2006 draft. Initially showed flashes, but failed to shoot 40%, played out of control most of the time and seemed unequipped and uninterested in playing defense. After two tumultuous seasons was traded to Golden State, where he flamed out. Not currently close to playing in the NBA.

Sean Williams - Quirky, hyper-athletic forward with incredible energy and shot-blocking ability who has so far not been able to harness that into NBA success. Was suspended from Boston College and banned from the basketball program for repeated violations of team policy. Associated strongly with Marijuana use. Very immature guy who fell out of favor with the organization and his teammates after prolonged strange behavior - including an incident where he abused a store clerk and broke a computer monitor after being told he could not purchase a mobile phone without ID. As of today, still a Net, but it seems unlikely he will be after this season.

Terrence Williams - Another offbeat character. Known to wear a Barbie backpack and Spongebob Squarepants socks around campus. Drafted by the Nets with the 11th pick. Rod Thorn says he was rated in the team's top five.

With this acquisition, another chapter can now be added to this epic tale. There are legends, thieves, murderers, drug users, Spongebob Fans - a cast of characters so diverse and crazy you couldn't make it up if you tried.

Good luck, Terrence. I'm sure whatever happens with you it won't be boring.

Usually, around this time of year, we use this space to try our hand at soothsaying by predicting who the Nets are likely to select in the upcoming draft. In the past, we’ve had a mixed record: We correctly predicted the selection of Josh Boone and a point guard in 2007, and the preference towards Sean Williams was already pretty much considered a done deal in 2008, so there was nothing really to do there. Last year, we predicted that the Nets would select Russell Westbrook if available with their #10 pick. Although we recognized that there was a legitimate chance that Brook Lopez would fall to New Jersey—and that Rod Thorn would probably select him—I argued that the Nets would be better off selecting someone else, if only because several capable centers from among Roy Hibbert, Alexis Ajinca, Kosta Koufos, JaVale McGee, Jason Thompson, or Mareese Speights were sure to be available for their #21 pick later in the round. Of those, I expressed a preference for Hibbert. It turned out that only Koufos was still on the board at #21.

As is often the case, the Nets have repeated their intent to select the "best available player." Of course, they’ve never defined just what in their eyes makes that "best available player." This is not academic. As I explained on Where’s Russ Granik?, an NBA draft blog web site created by several of the moderators on the forum side, there is no objective standard for determining who is the "best available player." Truly, one team’s trash is another team’s treasure . . . at least until it is time to extend their rookie deal. Incidentally, Where’s Russ Granik? can be accessed at http://2009nbadraftblog.blogspot.com/, and for those draftniks among you, features a fun and informative in-depth pick-by-pick analysis of how the first round may go, written from the point of view of each team.

So, what sort of attributes do the Nets tend to look for in deciding just who is the "best available player?"
Even though the Nets have never made any official pronouncements about this, there is enough of a body of evidence during the Rod Thorn era to make our own conclusions.

–He usually has attended a major school, coached by a well-respected coach, in a prominent conference. In the Rod Thorn era, the Nets have taken players schooled at Connecticut (2), Arizona (2), Stanford (2), Cincinnati, Florida, USC, Cal, Memphis, Boston College and European powerhouses Partizan and Cibona.

–He is not a freshman or a high school senior (the latter no longer an issue). No one has ever been less than 20 years old at the time of the draft, and the only 20-year-olds have been Marcus Williams and last year’s two first-rounders, Brook Lopez and Ryan Anderson. The Nets are more interested in players that can make an impact immediately than players with more potential, but who may be a few years away from contributing.

–He is tall for his position. In the Thorn era, the Nets have never drafted a player under 6’3" and only one at that height, Marcus Williams, a point guard. During that time, they have drafted five seven-footers: Soumali Samaki, Jason Collins, Krstic, Mile Ilic, and Lopez. Even the wings are tall—consider Antoine Wright, who is listed at 6’7", as is Chris Douglas-Roberts.

–While he may be hyper-athletic (see Kenyon Martin, Richard Jefferson, Hassan Adams and Sean Williams), this isn’t a requirement (see Lopez, Josh Boone, Nenad Krstic, Mile Ilic, Tamar Slay, etc.)

–He is usually strong defensively–especially on-ball defense. Martin, Jefferson, Collins, Antoine Wright, Josh Boone and Sean Williams were all known as solid defenders when drafted, as was CDR.

–He has a high basketball IQ, if not a high IQ, period. Collins, Boone and Sean Williams all scored above 1200 on their SAT’s. Don’t have the figures for last year’s picks, but I suspect that they were up there as well.

–He is a team-oriented player. When I read a scouting report on a player and it says "___ is unselfish, almost to a fault . . . will tend to pass up a shot to pass to a teammate," to me that signals a prototypical Nets’ draft pick. The wings might have a reputation for being willing—and good—passers.

We’ve also noted that the Nets have never drafted two players at the same position in the same draft. Take a look at their three multi-pick drafts, 2001, 2006, and 2008. In 2001, they took a small forward (Jefferson), a center (Collins), a shooting guard (Armstrong) and a power forward (Brian Scalabrine). In 2006, they took a point guard (Marcus Williams), a power forward (Boone) and a swingman (Adams). Last year, of course, they selected a center (Brook), a power forward (Ryan), and whatever you consider CDR to be. Barring something unexpected, this attribute will be irrelevant this year, however.

In fact, in only two case during the Thorn era have they ever drafted two players at the same position during consecutive drafts: 2002, when they took Krstic after selecting four players—including seven-footer Collins–the previous year (of course, they insisted Krstic go back to Europe), and last year, when they selected Ryan a year after selecting Sean Williams. This would seem to suggest that the Nets are unlikely to select a center or PF this year.

We’re going to add a new rule this year: Given their experiences with some of their recent draft picks, we think that the Nets will now bend over backwards to select players who have stable personalities, and have stayed out of trouble to date. They certainly used that approach last year.

So Who Might the Nets Select With the 11th Pick?

As of right now, the word on the street is that the Nets board has four guys on it: Terrence Williams, Tyler Hansbrough, Gerald Henderson, and Jonny Flynn, unless someone unexpected slips. DeJuan Blair, Earl Clark, and James Johnson have apparently slipped off the radar. Nothing we can say at this late stage is likely to add any insight to what might happen in less than twenty-four hours. We can’t say which of these four players the Nets are likely to select at this point; it will depend in part on which one or two of them is selected with one of the top ten picks. Of course, there are also those other rumors: That the Nets are interested in trading down, or moving their pick for cash. At this point, probably not even Rod Thorn knows what will happen.

Let’s assume, for the moment, that a deal won’t be consummated and return to those four players. One thing you’ll note is that each one of these four players matches up with the above attributes pretty well, and we probably could have predicted the Nets’ interest in these guys a month ago. All attended well-respected programs (Williams, Louisville; Hansbrough, UNC; Henderson, Duke; Flynn, Syracuse). None are freshman—in fact, only Flynn is even a sophomore. Flynn, at 6’0", is the only one that could be considered short for his position. Williams, Hansbrough, and Henderson have sterling defensive reputations (Flynn, not so much, but I believe he was considered hard to assess due to Syracuse’s defensive schemes). They are intelligent, team players who like to share the ball, and haven’t gotten into trouble. In short: These are all prototypical Nets picks. As a PF, Hansbrough would duplicate a position filled last year, which would seem to be a minus. In fact, Chad Ford has reported that Hansbrough is currently fourth on the Nets' list among those four players, and that could be one reason why.

What about some players that are widely expected to be selected in the top-ten, but may drop further? Well, don’t expect the Nets to select DeMar Derozan, Jrue Holiday, or Tyreke Evans. They’re freshmen who are not ready to contribute immediately, and it would take a lot of potential for the Nets to overlook that. Their defense is generally suspect as well. I would put Brandon Jennings in this category, also, despite his international experience. The players that could slip, who the Nets would consider, would probably include James Harden and Jordan Hill, who share the same attributes listed above.

Terrence Williams, Tyler Hansbrough, Gerald Henderson, Jonny Flynn, James Harden and Jordan Hill. If I had to choose, I'd probably go with Hansbrough, and not just because the beat writers are now reporting that the Nets appear to be leaning that direction. It's likely that Harden, Hill, and Flynn will all be long gone by the 11th pick, and the Nets have also shown that they prefer that their wings have a decent jump shot. Even Antoine Wright shot roughly 50% from the floor during his final college season. The two remaining wings on this list, Henderson and Williams, fall short of this mark. Williams, too, has trouble shooting free throws, and even though that's not a factor on my list, I'll suspect that the Nets will take note of that, given the failures of other recent picks at that skill. So, that would leave the man they call Psycho T. This is all based on attributes, though, and with the underlying assumption that in the Nets eyes, these guys all have roughly the same talent level. Obviously, I can't sit in on those high-level meetings or closed workouts.

So expect one of those six players to be wearing a Nets baseball cap on Thursday evening. And you can expect a blog entry in about twelve months that discusses how "predicable" this draft was—at least in terms of how the Nets assess the "best available player." It's all so simple!

Barring a trade, of course.

ESPN's Chad Ford now reports the Trailblazers have been talking to the Nets about a deal that would send Vince Carter to Portland for Raef LaFrentz's expiring contract along with Travis Outlaw, Sergio Rodriguez and in an expanded deal, Channing Frye. However, in an online chat, Ford states that if Portland makes a deal, it'll be for Charlotte's Gerald Wallace or Richard Jefferson. And Al Iannazzone reports Ryan Anderson and Eduardo Najera have replaced Josh Boone in the Houston proposal.

• Sources: Nets, Rockets, Blazers talk trade - Chad Ford - ESPN.com
• Chat with Chad Ford - Chad Ford - ESPN.com
• Thorn says he's not close to deal - Dave D'Alessandro - Star-Ledger
• Harris wants to keep Carter - Dave D'Alessandro - Star-Ledger
• Owner of the Houston Rockets says Tracy McGrady is staying put - AP
• Essentials: Stoudemire, Carter, others still available - Tony Mejia - Pro Basketball News
• McGrady says he will have surgery - Stephen A. Smith - ESPN
• Money matters in NBA trade talks - Chris McCosky - Detroit News
• Houston has a problem - Al Iannazzone - In the 'Zzone

In a concise "state of the team" assessment, GM Kiki Vandeweghe reveals that the front office is "very pleased with how the team and the players have performed this year," including Yi and Ryan Anderson, who he believes will "be solid NBA players for us, if not stars." Yet he adds that the Nets wouldn't hesitate to make a deal if the right opportunity presents itself. The upshot? According to ESPN's Henry Abbott, "the Nets are among a handful of teams expressing a willingness to take on more salary."

• The Man Who Makes (Roster) Magic Happen - NJNets.com
• Nets Ready to Spend Money? - Henry Abbott - ESPN True Hoop
• Risk is in short supply as NBA trade deadline nears - Geoffrey C. Arnold - The Oregonian

Brook Lopez’s Rookie of the Month award was well deserved; he averaged nearly 15 points and 8 rebounds for the month. What may have gone unnoticed, however, is how he has further picked up his game since Yi Jianlian was injured back on January 9. During the twelve games that the Nets have played with Yi out, Lopez has:

--Played an average of 34 minutes per game
--Averaged 17.9 PPG
--Shot 55% from the floor, on an average of 13.3 attempts
--Converted 90.4% of his free throws (averaging 3.4 attempts per game)
--Grabbed an average of 8.0 rebounds per game, 2.8 on the offensive end
--Blocked an average of 1.7 shots

The negative stats aren't too shabby, either:
--Committed 2.3 turnovers
--Committed 2.7 fouls

To put this in perspective, we took a look at how many post players around the league have produced similar or better numbers over the course of the entire season. Setting the threshold slightly below Brook's numbers at 16.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 50% shooting, and 1.5 blocks, we come up with:

Dwight Howard
Yao Ming
Tim Duncan

That’s it.

Really. Furthermore, Howard and Yao have each committed more turnovers and personal fouls on a per-game basis.

Amare Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett, Chris Bosh, David West, Al Jefferson, and LaMarcus Aldridge come close, but all fail to make the cut either because their FG% or block shot average is slightly too low. Of course, many of these are power forwards, not centers, but we won't bother with such nuances.

Incidentally, of all these players mentioned, only Dirk has a FT% over 90%.

Do you get the feeling we may have something special here?

The Nets have now played ten games since the unfortunate injury to Yi Jianlian. To be more specific, they’ve actually played eleven, since they snuck in the victory over Philadelphia the other day in the second half of a back-to-back before I could cobble this report together. I thought that ten games would be a threshold for taking a close look at how the loss of Yi has affected the team’s performance. What I plan to do in this piece is to simply compare various metrics for the ten games immediately prior to Yi’s injury to the games since he suffered his injury, and to try to make some conclusions regarding the effect that his loss has had. Just to be complete, I’ll extend the post-injury data to include the Philadelphia game. Thus: ten games before, eleven after. For the purposes of this analysis, I’ll completely ignore the game that Yi injured his finger (he missed about half the game, if I remember correctly).

If you remember, during the two games immediately prior to Yi’s injury, he had started to really come into his own, averaging 21 points and 9.5 rebounds while hitting over 50% of his shots (he was enjoying a similarly good game on January 9 when he was injured). For the entire ten game period, however, his performance was fairly erratic, even including those last few games. All in all, though, his overall stats were better than Ryan Anderson’s have been in the games since. Ryan replaced Yi in the starting lineup, so to a certain extent we’ll be looking at his contributions.

Before we begin, let me add that there may be other events that could have affected team performance during the past 21 games. Devin Harris missed two games immediately preceding Yi’s injury and most of a third. Bobby Simmons missed a pair of games in late December as well. Also, by all accounts, Harris and Vince Carter have been suffering from nagging injuries themselves over the past few weeks, which have undoubtedly had an effect on team performance. But you can never reproduce laboratory conditions in real life, so we’ll have to do what we can.

TEAM RESULTS—PRIOR TO INJURY

In the ten games immediately prior to Yi’s injury, the Nets earned a record of 5-5. However, they did get outscored during this period by an average score of 97.3-94.9, so perhaps they were a little bit lucky. The Nets did go 2-0 during this stretch in games decided by less than five points, which seems to back this up. In fact, we calculate that during this period the Nets have scored 102.4 points per 100 possessions during this stretch, while giving up 105.4, so we probably would have expected them to have a record around 4-6.

TEAM RESULTS—SUBSEQUENT TO INJURY

In the eleven games immediately following Yi’s injury, the Nets earned a record of just 3-8. Just like the prior ten games, they did get outscored during this period, but the gap worsened a bit: Now the average score was 100.0-92.6. Their record during this stretch is probably a pretty accurate reflection of their point differential. The Nets did go 2-2 during this stretch in games decided by less than five points, which is more in line with what we’d expect. Although the Nets scored fewer points per game, their points per 100 possession computes to 101.6, nearly identical to what it was prior to Yi’s injury. The lower point total, therefore, was a result of a slower pace of play—not at all surprising given that they played Boston twice and San Antonio once during this stretch of games. On the defensive end, though, we see a dramatic reduction in effectiveness, as the Nets have given up 109.9 points per 100 possessions, which is horrible, to put it lightly.

TEAM RESULTS—NET

Summary: Since Yi’s injury, the Nets have scored 2.3 fewer points per game and surrendered 2.7 MORE points per game—a five point swing. As mentioned above, however, they have scored roughly the same number of points per 100 possessions, but their defense has been dramatically worse—four and a half points per 100 possessions. Of course, the quality of the opposition could have something to do with this. We don’t know whether Yi’s injury is directly responsible for this—undoubtedly, the injuries suffered by Devin and Vince have played a part—but it is certainly worth noting. Just for the record, in both time periods the Nets committed fewer turnovers than their opponents. In fact, their margin has increased; in the ten games prior to Yi’s injury, the Nets committed seven fewer turnovers than their opponents; since the injury, they have committed twenty-two fewer.

PERFORMANCE OF VINCE AND DEVIN—PRIOR TO INJURY

Next I thought I’d take a look at how Vince and Devin have performed during the two periods. Is the recent poor record a reflection of their shooting? Let’s take a look. In the ten games immediately prior to Yi’s injury, Vince shot a mere 40.5% from the floor on 17.8 attempts. Similarly, Devin shot just 41.0% from the floor on an average of 14.6 attempts (remember that Devin played just eight of the ten games). If we eliminate the game on January 5, when Devin took three shots and left for good, we calculate that he averaged 16.3 shots per game. Regardless, one thing is clear: Devin and Vince were not carrying the Nets to their 5-5 record during this stretch of games. They had already begun to underperform.

PERFORMANCE OF VINCE AND DEVIN—SUBSEQUENT TO INJURY

In the eleven games immediately following Yi’s injury, it has been more of the same from Vince and Devin. Vince has shot a horrific 38.4% from the floor on 14.6 attempts per game, while Devin has shot 38.6% on an average of 14.5 attempts.

PERFORMANCE OF VINCE AND DEVIN—NET

Summary: As bad as Vince and Devin had been in the ten games prior to Yi’s injury, they have been even worse since. They have also taken fewer shots. Part of that, however, is due to their joint benching during the second half of the second game against the Celtics. If we eliminate that game from the number of attempts, they will increase to 15.3 (Vince) and 15.4 (Devin). Part of it may also be due to a slower pace of play in those games due to the style of the opposition. They may also have drawn more shooting fouls; I have not examined that. Regardless, there is no question that Vince and Devin have failed to step up and have been at least partially (if not mostly) responsible for the team’s record over the past eleven games, and probably the primary reason that the team’s scoring has decreased. Perhaps, however, that one reason for their poor shooting has been that without Yi, the Nets have lacked a consistent three-point thread, allowing the opposition defenses to converge on the guards. Let’s take a look at that next.

THREE-POINT SHOOTING—PRIOR TO INJURY

In the ten games immediately prior to Yi’s injury, the team took an average of 19.0 three-point shot attempts, making 7.2, for a shooting percentage of 37.9%. To put it another way, the Nets scored an average of 21.6 points per game on three-point shots.

THREE-POINT SHOOTING—SUBSEQUENT TO INJURY

In the eleven games immediately following Yi’s injury, the team took an average of 20.2 three-point shot attempts, making 7.4, for a shooting percentage of 36.6%. To put it another way, the Nets scored an average of 22.2 points per game on three-point shots.

THREE-POINT SHOOTING—NET

Summary: Not much difference, to be honest. The Nets took 1.2 more three-point shots after Yi’s injury, making 0.2 of them. Had they shot from behind the arc at the same rate, they would have made an average of .455 more three-pointers per game instead .2—so this lower shooting percentage has cost them roughly three-quarters of a point per game. The conclusion is that the Nets have overcome the loss of Yi pretty well with respect to their long-range shooting. Incidentally, over the course of the season, the Nets have shot 37.6% from behind the arc. Only five teams have shot better than 38.0%.

REBOUNDING—PRIOR TO INJURY

By all accounts, Yi has rebounded the ball better than anyone expected. Has the team rebounding rate suffered in his absence? Let’s look at the numbers. During the ten games prior to Yi’s injury, the Nets averaged 10.5 offensive rebounds per game, while the opposition grabbed 31.5 defensive rebounds. We can define the "offensive rebound success rate" as (OR)/(OR+OppDR). By this metric, the Nets were able to secure 25% of the potential offensive rebounds. We can do the same calculation with regard to defensive rebounds. The Nets secured 31.2 defensive rebounds per game, while the opposition grabbed 8.8 offensive rebounds, giving the Nets a success rate of 78%.

REBOUNDING—SUBSEQUENT TO INJURY

During the eleven games since Yi’s injury, the Nets averaged 11.0 offensive rebounds per game, while the opposition grabbed 33.1 defensive rebounds. Thus, the Nets were able to secure 24.9% of the potential offensive rebounds. On the defensive end, the Nets secured 27.7 defensive rebounds per game, while the opposition grabbed 10.0 offensive rebounds, giving the Nets a success rate of 73.5%.

REBOUNDING—NET

Summary: We can see that while the Nets’ offensive rebounding has remained about the same, their defensive rebounding has taken a dive. The difference between a 78% success rate and a 73.5% success rate is about 1.7 rebounds per game at this level of opportunities—that is, the Nets are allowing the opposition 1.7 more offensive rebounds per game than we would have expected had Yi not gotten injured. That is a huge number, and represents possibly as many as two points per game.

YI VERSUS RYAN ANDERSON: PLUS-MINUS

During the ten games prior to Yi’s injury, the Nets were outscored by a total of 24 points. Yi was a plus-13 during this period, meaning that he outperformed the team by plus-37, if that makes sense. After Yi went down, he was replaced by Ryan Anderson in the starting lineup. During the next eleven games, the Nets were outscored by a total of 81 points. Ryan Anderson’s personal plus-minus during this period was a minus-41.

I’ve also taken a look at how the starting five-man unit performed during these games. I’ve discovered that, in the ten games prior to Yi’s injury, the starters were a combined plus-five. Note that in two cases the starting five included Keyon Dooling in place of Devin Harris, and on two occasions Trent Hassell instead of Bobby Simmons. In the eleven games since Yi’s injury, however, the starting five (with Ryan replacing Yi) earned a total of . . . plus-four! In other words, during this eleven game stretch, the starting five has outscored the opposition when they have been on the floor, most often against the opposition’s starting five.

That suggests, also, that in the time that Ryan has played without the other starting four, the team has been absolutely horrible. He is a minus-45 in roughly 97 minutes of play during such situations, by my count. How much of that is Ryan’s fault is unclear, but we could probably say with some certainty that he isn’t helping things when he is on the court with some of the reserves right now.

The conclusion here seems to be that replacing Yi with Ryan Anderson in the starting lineup has not resulted in a loss of productivity among the starting unit. However, when some number of reserves is in the game—including when Ryan is matched with some reserves—the team production has fallen apart. Previously, when Yi was paired with reserves, the team performed much better.

CONCLUSION

It appears as though the loss of Yi has had three primary negative effects. First, the team’s defensive efficiency has eroded significantly. Second, the defensive rebounding efficiency has suffered. Third, the bench has performed poorly, especially when Ryan has been paired with some of the reserves. This is an odd conclusion, because Ryan seemed to perform fairly well with the reserves before he was elevated into the starting lineup. Perhaps he is playing too many minutes, and his effectiveness has suffered as the game has dragged on, I really don't know.

Again, as stated initially, there could be other factors for some of these results. Injuries, the quality of the opposition, poor play from other players. However, it would seem to be a bit of a coincidence that this change occurred dramatically right around the time that Yi was injured.

Regardless, I think we can all agree on one thing: Hurry back soon, Yi!

Count this one among the oddest statistical anomalies we have discovered recently.

Over the course of franchise history, in its various incarnations, the Nets have a total record of just 1509-1869, good (bad?) for a winning percentage of just .447. They have made the playoffs in just 23 of their 41 years, not counting this current one. We know all this; we’re Nets fans. We suffer.

But there is one circumstance in which the Nets have been consistently good: The season held after a U.S. President is elected and sworn into office.

But that doesn’t tell the entire story. The success of the Nets is actually tied to whether a U.S. President ultimately serves one or two terms. Historically, if the Nets play well the season after a president is elected and inaugurated, he is likely to be reelected. His reelection chances if the Nets play poorly? Fuhgettaboutit. And hey, just for good measure, the Nets tend to be pretty dominant the season after a U.S. President is reelected, for those fortunate enough to do so. I know; right now you’re thinking that I’m making this up. Let’s look at the numbers.

Since coming into existence, the Nets have witnessed four two-term presidents: Richard Nixon (inaugurated in 1969 and 1973); Ronald Reagan (inaugurated in 1981 and 1985); Bill Clinton (inaugurated in 1993 and 1997); and George W. Bush, inaugurated in 2001 and 2005. In the season following each of those eight events (i.e., 1969-70, 1973-74, 1981-82, 1985-86, 1993-94, 1997-98, 2001-02, and 2005-06), the Nets have had a combined record of 366-294, a winning percentage of 55.5%. That’s an average mark of approximately 46-36. They have made the playoffs each of those eight years. How’s t hat for consistency?

Now for the other side of the presidential seal. During their existence, they have witnessed the election of two one-term presidents: George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter. In the two seasons following their inaugurations, the Nets were a combined 41-123—a pathetic mark under any standard. Perhaps President Obama should become a Nets fan!

So how will the Nets perform in 2009-2010? The world will be watching. . . . and we suspect that political operatives will be phoning Coach Frank about his rotation.

[Just don’t ask me to explain Gerald Ford. Ford's ascent to the presidency occurred smack in the middle of the Nets' most successful three-year period in their history, during which they won two ABA titles, sandwiched around the season in which they achieved their highest win total.]

Here is the first of what will be periodic reports on some statistics that have recently caught my eye.

I. With a 6-6 record, the Nets are not surprisingly in the middle of the pack in most team statistical categories. Here’s a rundown:

--The Nets are hitting 44.6% of their field goal attempts. That ranks 14th in the NBA.
--The Nets are hitting 77% of their free throws. That’s 13th.
--The Nets are averaging 4.6 blocks per game. That ranks 19th.
--The Nets are drawing 21.8 fouls. That’s twelfth most.
--The Nets are holding their opposition to a 45.5% field goal percentage. That’s twentieth (below average, but not as bad as everyone thinks.
--The Nets are committing 12.7 turnovers per game. That ranks as 8th fewest, which qualifies as above average. However, their opposition is just committing 13.3; the differential is tenth best.

There are a couple of things that they are doing well, though:
--The Nets are hitting 38.6% of the three-point attempts. That ranks seventh.
--The Nets are attempting 27.8 free throws per game. That ranks fifth.

On the negative side:
--The Nets are committing 25.6 fouls per game. That’s the worst. As a result, the opposition is attempting 31.8 free throws, which is second worst in the league. The free throw differential is fourth worst.
--The opposition is hitting 41.8% of their three-point attempts. That’s second worst in the league in perimeter defense.

These stats, though, include the first few games, when the team was still figuring out how to play together, and the three games when Devin Harris was out with his injury and the team was shelled. Have the Nets played any better since his return (and since Brook Lopez was inserted into the starting lineup, which happened at the same time)? Let’s take a look.

Over the past five games:
--They have given their opponents a ridiculous 159 free throw opportunities over the five games—that’s 31.8 per game, for those counting, the same as their season average. Only Milwaukee has committed more fouls over their past five games than the Nets. The silver lining? They have ATTEMPTED 165 free throws themselves.

--They have allowed the opposition to shoot 46.6% from the field, which has actually gotten worse. On the plus side, though, they have hit 48.3% of their shots; only Phoenix (49.7) has shot better than that for the entire season.

--The Nets are hitting 43.8% of their three-point attempts, which is an improvement over their season-to-date numbers, and would lead the league if they could have shot at that rate all season. However, they are allowing the opposition to hit 44.6% of their three-point shots over the past five games. As shown above, that is several percentage points worse than the Nets’ season-to-date mark. The opposition is also attempting more threes than the Nets--about 4.6 per game more.

--Over the past five games, the Nets have committed slightly fewer turnovers than the opponents, 56 to 64. That’s only 11.2 per game, an improvement over the first seven games, and would be the lowest average in the league if they could have done that the entire season.

--Also, over the last five games the Nets have tied for the highest PPG average in the league, at 111.4 (tied with Golden State). They’ve given up the second most, though (108). They’ve averaged 2.0 more steals per game than their opponent, which is seventh-highest in the league over that span.

UPSHOT: It's pretty unlikely that the Nets can continue to shoot as well as they have recently. To continue to be successful, then, they have to either reduce the opposition's three-point shooting percentage, or reduce the number of times they send the opponent to the line. Or both. I would say that these are two of the key factors for the upcoming road trip, in addition to getting some production from the two starting forward positions.

II. Here’s a stat that I thought I’d break out into a separate section for emphasis. This hasn’t been covered by the press, but believe it or not, the Nets have recently been dominating their opponents on the glass. Over the past five games, they’ve grabbed 58 offensive rebounds in 202 opportunities, a 28.7% success rate. Defensively, they’ve allowed 45 offensive rebounds by the opposition, in 195 opportunities, a 23.1% rate. That's a pretty nice spread; on average, they've grabbed 2.6 more offensive rebounds than their opponents, which would lead to roughly 2.5-3 points per game. If they can keep this up, it will go a long way to helping them remain at or even surpass .500.

III. With all this talk about how bad the Nets have been at defending the perimeter, I thought we should take a look to see if they have at least been successful at defending the area inside the arc. That would not only include the paint, but also your typical 12-15 foot jump shot. The way I’ve done this is to remove the three-point baskets and attempts from the opposition’s overall shooting percentage, and then compare the resulting percentage to that of the rest of the league. It turns out that, among two-point shots, the Nets are holding the opposition to a 47% shooting percentage. That is exactly 15th in the league, and not a whole lot worse than ninth best (46.6%). The Celtics rule here, holding the opposition to just a 40.8% shooting percentage inside the arc. Cleveland is next, at just over 44%.

82games.com goes one step further, and breaks down stats by three point shots, two point jump shots, and "inside shots." By their calculation, opponents are hitting just 35.9% of their two-point jump shots, which is the fifth stingiest in the league. Roughly 40% of the opponent's total shot selection is classified in this category. The Nets are not so successful at "inside shots", however: the opposition is successful at 61.8% of these shots, which is sixth worst in the league. On the plus side, however, only 30% of the opposition's shots are considered "inside shots," which is one of the lowest percentages in the league, so the Nets must generally be doing a decent job at closing off the paint. They've also given up just 28 dunks, which is the second lowest total in the league.

IV. Over the past five games--in other words, since Devin returned from his injury and Brook entered the starting lineup—the Nets have been outscored in just FIVE of the 20 quarters (21 if you include overtime). That’s it—five times (they’ve been even on two occasions). Moreover, there’s been no truth to the rumor that they’ve had the most trouble in the third quarter; they’ve been outscored just once in that frame over this time period (by Cleveland, by 15 points). Combined, they’ve outscored their opponent in every quarter overall: by two points in the first (the numbers brought down by a -11 against Toronto); by 11 in the second; by two in the third; and by 9 in the fourth. Three times they outscored their opponent in a quarter more than five points: once by 7, once by 8, and once by 9. Yet three times they were OUTSCORED by more than 9 (11, 12, and 15, the latter two in the same game). In other words, the few times that the Nets have lost a quarter recently, they have gotten totally bombed.

V. Brook Lopez is certainly catching on fast. In five games as a starter, he is now averaging 14.6 PPG on 59% shooting, with 9.0 rebounds (3.6 offensive), 1.6 blocks, and just 3.8 fouls and 1.0 turnovers in just over 32 minutes per game. Impressively, he’s hitting 69% of his free throws as well. Here’s a question: Last year, how many rookie bigmen averaged 14 and 8, on 50%+ shooting?

Answer: None.

How about in 2006-07? Answer: None. How about 2005-06? Answer: None (Charlie Villanueva comes closest, averaging 13 PPG and 6.4 RPG). How about 2004-05? Okafor! Except for the field goal component, but we’ll take it. Dwight Howard made the rebound and FG% cutoff, but averaged just 12 PPG.

Are you getting the sense that Lopez could be kind of special?

To be fair, I’m cheating a bit by throwing out Brook’s games as a reserve (I didn’t do the same for past rookies). And, of course, there is no guarantee that he can continue this pace his entire rookie season; five games is an awful small sample, after all. Still, though, it’s impressive, and shows how difficult it has been for rookie big men to put up those sorts of numbers. Even if he levels off at 13 and 6, he’ll compare quite well against other rookie bigs this decade.

Stats aside, Brook’s development has been startling. He is getting more confident in his post game, and has demonstrated strong rebounding skills. As shown in point II. above, he’s doing a fine job both grabbing offensive boards and limiting the number of offensive boards that the opposing center has pulled down. Suddenly Keyon Dooling’s proclamation that he could be a "top five center" by the end of the season doesn’t look quite so crazy. Still a little crazy, though.

VI. Now the Nets are off on their usual November West Coast road trip. It has become an annual Thanksgiving weekend tradition, the result of a scheduling conflict at the Izod Center. Reading what the beat writers and the armchair experts on the discussion boards are thinking, it seems as though the predicted outcome ranges between a 2-2 mark and a 0-4 mark. No one is daring to suggest that the Nets could actually win more than they lose on this West Coast swing. Thus, expectations are that the team will return from the road trip with an overall record somewhere between 6-10 and 8-8. This naturally led to the question: How would this start match up against the team’s record to begin prior seasons?

To find the answer, I looked at the Nets’ overall record on the date they returned from the West Coast trip. The idea was that, regardless of the number of games that have been played, the part of the schedule ending with this annual road trip should be considered the "beginning" of the season. Obviously, the total number of games that the team had played up to that point will vary. Also, in some years, the road trip consists of four games (such as this year); in some years, five. With that in mind, here are their records to start the season each year this decade:

2007-08: 7-7
2006-07: 5-8
2005-06: 7-7
2004-05: 2-11
2003-04: 7-10
2002-03: 11-7
2001-02: 9-5
2000-01: 6-7

What we notice: Despite the pessimism surrounding the team’s fortunes prior to the start of the season, the Nets should return from this trip with a record no different than most other years this decade, the two Finals years notwithstanding. If the Nets go 2-2 on the trip, and return with an 8-8 record, they will have as successful a start to a season as they’ve had since 2002-03. A 1-3 trip (7-9 record overall) would be roughly equivalent to their AVERAGE start over the past five years; that average is a record of 5.6-8.6. For the decade, their average record has been a slightly better 6.75-7.75.

What else we notice: Wow, they sure were horrible back in 2004-05. Yet they still made the playoffs, when all was said and done. Maybe they made a trade or something.

Remember, too, that the Nets reached the playoffs six out of eight years this decade, and the finals twice. Maybe there is reason to be optimistic after all.

--Dumpy

Nenad Krstic bounced back from an uneven performance to score 14 points as Serbia pounded Angola 99-62 on the final day of the Diamond Ball tournament held in Nanjing, China. Krstic was a perfect 4-for-4 from the field and pulled down six rebounds in 20 minutes.

• Serbia bounce back to beat Angola at Diamond Ball - FIBA
• Boxscore - Serbia-Angola - FIBA

Playing a team-high 29 minutes, Nenad Krstic netted 12 points as Argentina handily beat Serbia in the FIBA Diamond Ball for Men tournament in Nanjing, China, 75-60. Showing some rust, Krstic hit just five of thirteen shots and two of six free throws, while pulling down six rebounds. Andres Nocioni, who has recently been linked to the Nets, scored 15 points for Argentina. Serbia faces Angola tomorrow.

• Boxscore - Serbia-Argentina - FIBA
• Chapu, Gonzalez come up big as Argentina beat Serbia - FIBA

"Rebuilding" is not a disparaging word to Brook Lopez, Ryan Anderson, and Chris Douglas-Roberts. To them, it means "opportunity." Jonathan Lehman reports that each of the Nets' three rookies are excited about the prospects of contributing during the upcoming season. All three took part in the NBA's annual Rookie Photo Shoot at the Knicks' practice facility.

• Anderson Travels From West to East - Lauren Brill - NBA.com
• Nets Rookies Ready to Lead - Jonathan Lehman - New York Post
• Rookie Photo Shoot Gallery - NBA.com
• Photo gallery: Behind the scenes at the NBA Rookie Photo Shoot - Chris Olds - Orlando Sentinel
• Photo Gallery: Nets Rookies at NBA Photo Shoot - Yahoo! Sports
• 2008 Rookie Photo Shoot: Director's direction - J.E. Skeets - Yahoo! Sports

A strong defensive effort led Australia to a 67-55 victory over China on the second day of the FIBA Diamond Ball for Men, a tune-up for the Olympics. China was forced into 23 turnovers, while the big trio of Yao Ming, Yi Jianlian and Wang Zhizhi were limited to just 18 points and 14 rebounds. Yi went 0-for-3 from the field with four rebounds in 24 minutes. Nenad Krstic didn't play in Iran's win over Serbia.

• AUS/CHN – Aussies ride strong defensive effort to win over China - FIBA
• Boxscore - Australia-China - FIBA
• Boxscore - Iran-Serbia - FIBA
• Yao, China lose to Australia in Olympic warmup - Christopher Bodeen - Yahoo! Sports
• Aussies ride strong defensive effort to win over China - FIBA

Nenad Krstic helped Serbia defeat 2007 EuroBasket champion Russia Sunday 75-74 to win Moscow's Mechel Cup. Krstic, whose NBA rights continue to be Nets' property, was one of three Serbs scoring in double figures, with 13. He also grabbed seven boards in 22 minutes. Although not in the Olympics, the Serbs have moved on to Nanjing, China, where they're playing in the Diamond Ball Tournament.

• Boxscore - in Serbian
• Serbia won the Mechel cup - Talkbasket.net
• Men's Basketball teams warm up for Beijing 2008 - Beijing 2008
• SER - Serbia arrive in Nanjing in good form - FIBA

ESPN is reporting that tickets for the Nets' October 12 preseason game against the Miami Heat, to be held in London, are sold out--nearly three months before the game. The Heat and the Nets will first meet in Paris on Oct. 9, before the rematch three days later in London. No word on whether tickets are still available for the game in Paris.

• Heat-Nets preseason game in London a sellout - ESPN.com

According to an Israeli web site, the Russian media is reporting that Nenad Krstic has agreed to terms with Russia's Triumph Lyuberts, and will play in Moscow this season. Krstic is currently competing for Serbia in an international tournament in the Russian capital. Barcelona and Real Madrid were also interested in Krstic. The article speculates that the contract is for one season with a one-year option.<!--IBF.ATTACHMENT_1663282-->

• Nenad Krstic Agreed To Dynamo Moscow Region - Sport5.co.il
• "Snoop Dogg" at Pilsen, Krstic on the way to Triumph - one.co.il

Miles and miles of perfect white sandy beaches. Disney World. Humidity that would curl your toenails. Snakes in the swimming pool. Summer thunderstorms that would put the Kodo Drummers to shame. Living in Florida has its advantages—some might say "quirks"—but nothing can compare to the opportunity to attend the Pepsi Pro Summer League at the Magic’s training facility in Orlando. So when the Nets graciously offered me a press pass for their game Friday against Indiana (thanks Suss!) I jumped all over it. A chance to see the three newest Nets up close and personal? A two-hundred-and-fifty mile round trip to see a glorified scrimmage in a tiny gym? Sounded like a perfect day to me. I was also hoping that Vince Carter would make another appearance so I could (finally) formally challenge him to a footrace, after insisting that I could outrun him in an online preseason guide last fall. He’s got roughly ten years on me, and is (of course) a premier world-class athlete, but is coming off of ankle surgery, so I figure that if I ever have a shot at victory, it would be now. Just in case, I made sure to toss a pair of shorts and a Power Bar into the back of the car.

The RDV Sportsplex in Orlando, which serves as the Magic’s training facility, is the size of a small city, complete with a children’s day camp, two dozen tennis courts, a swimming pool shaped suspiciously like the letter "P" (don’t worry, I couldn’t understand it either), and about seven hundred treadmills and half as many Stairmasters sitting on an open floor. The Magic train in just one corner of this massive structure, accessed through a separate entrance. A press pass was waiting for me and I was in.

The facility was like a high school gym, only smaller and better smelling. It immediately became obvious why this league was not open to spectators: Lack of seating. On one side of the court were small wooden bleachers, about five benches high, and on the other were a few rows of chairs. I chose a discreet seat in the bleachers, across the court from where Rod, Kiki, and Lawrence Frank were sitting, and watched the Nets warm up.

The view of the Nets warming up before the game from my seat in the bleachers. Across the court, in a green shirt, sits Rod Thorn. Next to him are Lawrence Frank and Kiki Vandeweghe (partially blocked out).

My first thought: Brook Lopez is big. REALLY big. My second thought: Why are there so many foreign-speaking journalists sitting in the bleachers around me? They couldn’t really be there to report on pseudo-Pacers Aleks Maric and Vlad Gulobovic, could they? At some point later in the game I realized that they were probably scouts for foreign teams, here to identify a few players to offer contracts to. Third thought: No Vince Carter today. Bummer.

The game soon started, and almost immediately CDR threw up an alley-oop to Sean Williams that clanged off the rim. Not a good sign. Later in the quarter, the pair tried running a give-and-go. It failed, but Sean was fouled and sent to the line. Sean looked active—he seemed to touch the ball on every possession. He was hustling, too: At one point he dove on the floor, scrambling for a loose ball. On the other hand, though, I heard Tom Barrise shout at him several times that he was lining up on the wrong side of the court. Sean, Sean. Brook Lopez showed off a pretty jump hook, and Ryan Anderson got into the act, hitting a long three.

I’ve got to say that it is a totally different experience watching NBA players at eye level and a distance of about fifteen feet. It was a perspective that definitely requires getting used to, and I found it difficult to get a good read on the players’ defense. On offense, there appear to be few set plays other than the pick-and-roll. It’s understandable, since these guys have only practiced together for about a week. Brook Lopez seemed to have problems with the "pick" half of the play, establishing position two feet to the side of the opposing PG’s path, and halfheartedly sticking out his hand to try to slow him down. It didn’t work. Lopez is really big, though. Did I mention that?

The second quarter was more of the same. Jaycee Carroll is running the point, and he takes it to the rim on nearly every possession. At one point, the Nets play a big lineup with Lopez, Sean, and Ryan Anderson in the front court (Anderson came off the bench in this one). It struck me that Ryan was lining up on the offensive end as if he was a SG, hanging out at the top of the arc next to the PG. I watched him hit a couple of three-pointers from straightaway. If that’s truly where Ryan is most comfortable, I could envision the Nets altering his role when he’s on the court with Vince Carter, thus possibly allowing Vince to post up more frequently. We’ll see.

At halftime, the Nets had a one-point lead, 48-47, despite allowing the Pacers to shoot a blistering 63% from the field, including 5-of-10 from behind the arc. That the Nets were even within shouting distance was due to shooting 18 more free throws than Indiana, of which they made all but one. There didn’t seem to be much defense from anyone other than Anthony Tolliver, who received nearly ten minutes of action in the half. Chris Douglas-Roberts led the team with 11 points in nearly fifteen minutes, courtesy of a perfect seven-of-seven from the line. Ryan Anderson had eight, and Brook Lopez six points and two rebounds. Other Nets of note in the first half: Sean Williams with five points and a pair of rebounds in 12:34; Jaycee Carroll with four points on two-of-seven shooting, but just a single assist. Julius Hodge , who entered the week amidst such high expectations, played for all of 3:21, and scored two points. Kiki spent most of the first half on the phone, pacing back and forth along the edge of the gym. Something was up. Rod Thorn happily watched the game in his shorts from his court-side seat, uninterrupted, and letting Kiki do the heavy lifting. Delegation, delegation, delegation.

I then approached N.Y. Post beat writer Fred Kerber, and shyly introduced myself. "Fred? I’m ___, from NetsDaily," I said, using my real name. "Dumpy!" he practically shouted. "Al [Iannazzone] will be so jealous that I got to meet you!" Fred was kind enough to allow me to join him for a bite to eat during the break, during which he filled me in on what Kiki was doing: The Nets were about to sign Jarvis Hayes. In return, I explained why I use the handle "Dumpy." You’ll have to ask him that one.

Then the pace picked up, if that could be possible, and the game became more physical. In the second half, it was the Brook and Ryan show. The Pac-10 duo combined for 31 points after the break, finishing with 25 and 20 points, respectively, with Anderson doing a pretty good Keith Van Horn impression. When Will Conroy entered the game, the Nets looked like they were running a real offense, as he directed traffic and called plays like an experienced PG (he earned three assists in his eight-plus second-half minutes). As a team, the Nets shot a blistering 61% (19 for 31), to pull away from Indiana in the final few minutes and put the game away. The final score was 107-99, an astounding total for a game consisting of ten-minute quarters.

There isn’t much I can add to the game (and the performance of the rookies) that hasn’t already been said by Kerber in his terrific articles and blog entries. Let me add, though, that the greatest impression that I got from watching the game didn't have anything to do with how any one individual played (although you couldn’t help but be impressed by Brook Lopez and Ryan Anderson)--it was that this team desperately wanted to win. As the game became more physical, the bench became more and more enthusiastic, yelling encouragement and cheering on every play down the stretch (best part: Brook was hit on the hand while shooting, and, after no foul was called, Barrise yelling to the ref, "You didn't see it, but you heard it!"). The pride and camaraderie were evident, and those are the first steps to becoming a winner. Just ask baseball’s Tampa Bay Rays, who have gone from doormats to contenders in the course of a season, in part because of the attitude and professionalism brought by off-season acquisition Cliff Floyd, at least according to a number of beat writers covering the team. I know you’re thinking: Big deal, these guys are pros; they should always play hard. Thing is, we haven’t really seen that the past few summers, at least as far as could be discerned from the webcam feed over the Magic’s web site. This year, with these players, things are clearly different. The Nets played hard and played physically, hustled during transition on both ends of the court, and looked like they are starting to bond. I have no idea if they will be any good, but obviously the rookies all showed strengths--not the least important of which was that they look like winners.

And for those looking for good signs everywhere: The three draftees combined for an amazing 29-for-29 performance from the line. For a team that was one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the league last season, that is a welcome sign.

Finally, I was also impressed by Anthony Tolliver. In this game, Tolliver scored 11 points on 4-5 shooting, played solid defense, and hustled for each of the fifteen minutes he was on the floor. Anthony, I don’t know if you have a future in the NBA, but there’s no reason why you shouldn’t be able to have a career playing this game. Hopefully, one of those foreign scouts was paying attention.

Would I come back to the summer league in the future? Definitely, if they’ll have me. Suss? How about it?

With D-Day fast approaching, it’s a good time to revisit our earlier predictions about who the Nets might be targeting.

As we’ve discussed in the past, the Nets have shown a predilection towards drafting players with particular attributes:

–He usually has attended a major school, coached by a well-respected coach, in a prominent conferences. In the Rod Thorn era, the Nets have taken players schooled at Connecticut (2), Arizona (2), Cincinnati, Florida, USC, Stanford, Boston College and European powerhouses Partizan and Cibona.

–He is not a freshman or a high school senior (the latter no longer an issue). The two youngest players on the Nets’ roster the past 25 years are Marcus Williams and Nenad Krstic as rookies. Neither were teenagers. Williams was 20 and Krstic 21 when they joined the club. (It must be noted that the Nets did try "desperately", in Ed Stefanski’s words, to trade for Monta Ellis in the 2005 draft.)

–He is tall for his position. In the Thorn era, the Nets have never drafted a player under 6’3" and only one at that height, Marcus Williams. During that time, they have drafted four seven-footers: Soumali Samaki, Jason Collins, Krstic and Mile Ilic. Average height for the 17 players drafted in the Thorn era is 6’ 8 ½". Even the wings are tall—consider Antoine Wright, who is listed at 6’7".

–While he may be hyper-athletic (see Kenyon Martin, Richard Jefferson, Hassan Adams and Sean Williams), this isn’t a requirement (see Josh Boone, Nenad Krstic, Mile Ilic, Tamar Slay, etc.)

–He is strong defensively–especially on-ball defense. Martin, Jefferson, Collins, Antoine Wright, Josh Boone and Sean Williams were all known as solid defenders when drafted. The only exception we can think of to this "rule" is Marcus Williams, who brought with him some other attributes.

–He has a high basketball IQ, if not a high IQ, period. Collins, Boone and Sean Williams all scored above 1200 on their SAT’s.

–Although this is a bit discouraging, it appears that the ability to consistently hit a mid-range jump shot is not a high priority.

–He is not necessarily the top option on offense for his team. Of the 17 players drafted in the Thorn era, only four–Martin in 2000, Armstrong in 2001, Slay in 2002, and Wright in 2005–were the high scorers on their college or international team.

–He is a team-oriented player. When I read a scouting report on a player and it says "___ is unselfish, almost to a fault . . . will tend to pass up a shot to pass to a teammate," to me that signals a prototypical Nets’ draft pick–not just players they selected (Planinic, Wright, Boone)–but also players that they are eventually linked to but don’t select.

We’ve also noted that the Nets have never drafted two players at the same position in the same draft. Take a look at their two multi-pick drafts, in 2001 and 2006. In 2001, they took a small forward (Jefferson), a center (Collins), a shooting guard (Armstrong) and a power forward (Brian Scalabrine). In 2006, they took a point guard (Marcus Williams), a power forward (Boone) and a swingman (Adams).

In fact, in only one case during the Thorn era have they ever drafted two players at the same position during consecutive drafts (the exception being 2002, when they took Krstic after selecting four players—including seven-footer Collins–the previous year. Of course, they insisted Krstic go back to Europe).

Bottom line: The Nets seem to really prefer players that have a solid sense of the fundamentals and can come in and make an impact within a year or so–they’ll take that over raw potential.
With this in mind, how would we predict that the 2008 draft will play out?

Who is in Charge?

Underlying the assumptions listed above is that Rod Thorn is still the primary decision-maker.

The truth is that we don’t know if their thinking will be adjusted now that Kiki Vandeweghe is on board. For instance, in recent months they’ve placed a premium on athleticism in the deals that they’ve made, which appears to be contrary to their drafting style. We’re thinking of Stromile Swift, Devin Harris, DeSagana Diop and yes, even Maurice Ager. What impact will Kiki have in the draft?

We think: Not much. By all accounts, Rod Thorn has still been heavily active, attending every workout, flying to Orlando for the PreDraft camp, going to Philly for the Ryan Anderson workout, and he will be meeting with the press on the draft (alone) this week. In addition, as has been the case in the past, we expect that Coach Frank will have a say in who the Nets select.

Will the Nets Select two Bigs?

There was a report this week indicating that the Nets wouldn’t hesitate to select two bigs in the first round if they thought they were the best players available. We think this is nonsense. As mentioned above, the Nets have never selected two players the same year that share a position. We don’t think this is coincidence, and we agree with the reasoning behind it. With so much to learn, it would be counterproductive to force two rookies to compete among themselves for minutes. A few years ago, New Orleans selected both Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons in the first round, and you see how that worked out. "But Dumpy," you argue, "they could still select one center and one power forward." Technically, yes. However, as mentioned above, the Nets have never selected players in consecutive years that play the same position. Last year, of course, they selected Sean Williams (PF) after selecting Josh Boone (C) in 2006. If the Nets select a PF, I’ll take it as a sign that they have a deal in place involving Sean.

Who Might the Nets Select With the 10th Pick?

DraftExpress recently reported that Seattle is leaning towards selecting Brook Lopez at #4. While I think that DX is often used by NBA teams to naively spread misinformation, let’s assume for the moment that they are correct. Let’s also assume that Kevin Love will be gone by the Nets selection, which seems to be accepted wisdom at this point. That would suggest that the Nets could select one of Eric Gordon, Jerryd Bayless, Danilo Gallinari, Joe Alexander, Russell Westbrook, and D.J. Augustin. Let’s take them one by one.

Augustin: Chance of selection: Zero. He’s an undersized shoot-first PG that is a below-average defender.

Gordon: Chance of selection: Zero (unless they immediately trade his rights). He is a short (for them) freshman SG that hasn’t met a shot he doesn’t like. He doesn’t share the ball. He is also turnover prone.

Alexander: Chance of Selection: 10% (unless they immediately trade his rights, or Kiki has more influence than we think). He is long on athleticism, but as noted above, this isn’t as vital as performance and ability to contribute immediately. Although he is a junior, and hails from a big program in a strong conference, he isn’t noted for his defense and is generally perceived as someone who will need time to develop.

Bayless: Chance of Selection: 20%. To be honest, I don’t know what to think of Bayless. He breaks all the "rules," but he may be a guy that the Nets are willing to make an exception for because his upside is generally perceived to be so high. He is not expected to fall to #10, but if it happens, it will be very, very interesting to see what transpires.

Gallinari: Chance of Selection: 50%. They claim they love him, but he isn’t a perfect fit. He’s not exceptionally tall for his position, which has been a hallmark of the Thorn-era pick. In addition, even Kiki has admitted that his defense needs work. However, given his IQ, basketball acumen, and team-oriented play, he likely will be the best option unless. . . .

Westbrook: Chance of Selection: 100%. I believe that Westbrook will trump everyone else on this list if he is somehow available. He is a sophomore from a big program in a strong conference. He is described as a team player with a strong work ethic—sound familiar?—and plays the strongest defense of any player on this list. His strength is his play in transition, which fits well with the Nets’ previous declaration that they plan to "build around" Devin Harris. In addition, his main weakness, his mid-range shooting, has not appeared to be a priority to the Nets decision-makers this decade. Just read some of these snippets from DraftExpress’s scouting report, and you can decide if it sounds like the prototypical nets pick: "he is a very smart player who knows his limitations and has no problem fitting in . . . He plays within himself, rarely forcing the issue, and thus has done a very good job of not exposing his weaknesses within his team’s system. . . . He is smart, patient, and highly unselfish, and possesses the court vision needed to find the open man without hesitation."

What About Brook Lopez?

OK, so what if Brook Lopez is available at #10? I don’t know what would happen. The Nets appear to be enamored with him, and good reason: He’s a seven-foot Sophomore who is intelligent and plays under control.

However, in my view, I hope they pass on Lopez if any of the above players are on the board—to keep Westbrook or Gallinari for themselves, or to immediately trade the rights to one of the other four. The reason is that I believe that the Nets will be able to get a similarly capable center at #21, such as Roy Hibbert, Alexis Ajinca, Kosta Koufos, JaVale McGee, Jason Thompson, or Mareese Speights. Of these, I like Hibbert the most—I see parallels between him and Josh Boone, an intelligent guy who plays positional defense, is team-oriented (sacrificing individual stats for the team to succeed), is not an offense force, and who has seen his stock drop each year he returned to college. I think Hibbert would be a great Net. I’d also be happy with Ajinca or Koufos if he is off the board.

In other words, there is such a depth of centers in this draft, that they need to take a step back and consider who may be on the board later in the round. All the evidence suggests that big men selected in the second half of the lottery have no more probability of success than centers selected in the second half of the first round. The exceptions are high school seniors, who were chosen by teams willing to wait two or three years for them to develop. First, that’s no longer an issue. Second, the Nets have not demonstrated that they are willing to wait and pay a prospect to develop.

Dumpy’s Dream Draft:
So here it is: My dream draft, assuming no trades. It would start with Westbrook or Gallinari at #10, and Hibbert or Ajinca at #21 (if they're there; otherwise one of the other centers would do). At #40, if the Nets have selected Gallinari, I’d go with a SG like J.R. Giddens. If they’ve selected Westbrook, I’d opt for a SF such as Bill Walker or Gary Forbes.

And there you have it!

Originally, I had an entire intro planned for this report. It was witty, it was clever—you know, all the good things. But then the Nets were pummeled, and, because my prologue was premised on the Nets not only winning, but playing good defense, I was left in the lurch. I’ve since spent the entire day trying to figure out what to say that hasn’t been said elsewhere, by people who are much better writers than I am, and who are actually clever and witty all the time without having to work at it. I’m still clueless. Let’s get to the numbers, and maybe something will come to me by the time I have to wrap this up.

Team Statistics

Possessions. The number of possessions (i.e., each time a team brings the ball up court) is a way to measure the pace of the game. For games involving running or trapping teams, the number of possessions will be high, possibly more than 100. For more methodical teams, the number of possessions may be closer to 80. Possessions can (generally) end one of three ways: on a field goal attempt that is not rebounded by the offense (this includes successful FG attempts); on a turnover, or through some free throws. Since this is an estimate based upon various statistics, and because the number of possessions should be approximately the same for both teams, we will just present the average estimated number of possessions for both teams.

Offensive Rating. A team’s offensive rating is just the number of points scored per 100 possessions. The opponent's offensive rating can be considered the team's Defensive Rating. For the past few seasons, the average team offensive rating in
the NBA has hovered around 105.

Assist Percentage. The assist percentage measures the frequency that successful field goals have been assisted.

"Big Four" Factors. The four primary factors that determine the outcome of a basketball game are: field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, turnovers, and the ability to get to the line and hit free throws. Offensive rebound percentage is measured as a percentage of rebound opportunities; turnovers are measured as a percentage of possessions; and free throws are measured by the percentage of time the team got to the line in relation to field goal shot attempts.

And the effective field goal percentage:

From these figures, we can see that the Celtics’ domination of the offensive boards was the deciding factor in this one. Had the Nets’ rebounded equally, the Celtics may well have still won—they were marginally better in field goal percentage and turnover percentage—but the game would have been a heck of a lot closer.

Nets Individual Statistics

I think I have an idea what to do next. One of the subthemes underlying this game was how the Nets would do against Boston’s big frontcourt. As you know, the Nets’ small lineups—mostly the Kidd-Carter-Wright-Jefferson combination, but others as well—have been the most effective units thus far, but they had yet to go against a team with two legitimate post threats. In Boston, you have a team that can (and did) play two of Garnett, Perkins, and Glen Davis at the same time. How did the Nets do against these frontcourts when using a small lineup? As I’ve described it before, I use the phrase "small lineup" to describe a unit with four of [Kidd/Armstrong/Carter/Wright/Jefferson/Nachbar], supported by one center. In some cases, the Nets could play five of those guys as well. This is probably self-evident, but it’s worth tossing the definition in here just to ensure we’re all on the same page. In this game, of course, the Nets were denied the ability to bring out their most effective small units after Carter’s injury, but it still may be a fascinating analysis. Let me make it clear from the outset that I have no idea what the numbers will show; while some sportswriters appear to have a particular predetermined slant and try to back it up with handpicked stats, I have no such agenda. Let’s take a look together and see what we find.

It turns out that, as far as I can tell (hint: don’t hold me to this), when the Nets went with a small lineup against two post threats, the nets were minus-11 in roughly 14 minutes of play. When the Nets faced a small lineup with one of their own, however, the Nets were a combined plus-4 in nearly 18 minutes. This disparity can really be seen in the third and fourth quarter. In the third, the Nets played the last 8:19 against Garnett and Glen Davis with four smalls and either Collins, Magloire, or Boone, and were outscored by nine. In the fourth quarter, however, the Celtics solely played a lineup that included a single big, mostly Garnett but with a little Davis to open the quarter, and the Nets destroyed them with a small lineup of their own. Some critics may argue that the Celtics took it easy during the final quarter, but I think it may have been more than that. I am starting to suspect that the Nets’ small lineups could be among the best in the league at this point in time. It may have turned out, then, that Brian Scalabrine’s injury was beneficial to the Celtics, because it forced them to use Glen Davis more than they otherwise would have. The challenge for the Nets will be in figuring out whether such lineups can play effectively against two bigs. New Orleans will be another test.

These individual statistics are estimates based on the premise that teammates should share credit for points and scoring possessions based upon their individual contributions to each play. They are derived from the research of Dean Oliver, and more can be read in his book, "Basketball on Paper."

Glossary for Individual Statistics:

Scoring Possessions: A scoring possession is awarded to an individual when he contributes to a team scoring possession. If multiple players contribute, then credit is split among teammates based upon a formula.

Possessions: Number of team possessions used by a particular player.

Floor percentage: The percentage of a player’s possessions on which there is a scoring possession.

Offensive Rating: Points produced by an individual per 100 possessions, as calculated by a complex formula.

Points Produced: The number of points a player generates through various offensive contributions, including assists, field goals, free throws, and offensive rebounds.

Points Scored: Number of points actually scored by the player in the game, which is included here for comparison to points produced.

Percentage of Team Possessions: How often a player uses a team possession when he is in the game. With five players on the court, an average value would be 20%.

Plus/Minus: How much the team outscores the opposition when the player is in the game.

Dumpy’s Statistical Analysis
November 6, 2007: New Jersey 87, Atlanta 82

Let’s get right to the stats.

Team Statistics

Possessions. The number of possessions (i.e., each time a team brings the ball up court) is a way to measure the pace of the game. For games involving running or trapping teams, the number of possessions will be high, possibly more than 100. For more methodical teams, the number of possessions may be closer to 80. Possessions can (generally) end one of three ways: on a field goal attempt that is not rebounded by the offense (this includes successful FG attempts); on a turnover, or through some free throws. Since this is an estimate based upon various statistics, and because the number of possessions should be approximately the same for both teams, we will just present the average estimated number of possessions for both teams.

Offensive Rating. A team’s offensive rating is just the number of points scored per 100 possessions. The opponent's offensive rating can be considered the team's Defensive Rating. For the past few seasons, the average team offensive rating in
the NBA has hovered around 105.

Assist Percentage. The assist percentage measures the frequency that successful field goals have been assisted.

The assist figure reflects the sterling ball movement.

"Big Four" Factors. The four primary factors that determine the outcome of a basketball game are: field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, turnovers, and the ability to get to the line and hit free throws. Offensive rebound percentage is measured as a percentage of rebound opportunities; turnovers are measured as a percentage of possessions; and free throws are measured by the percentage of time the team got to the line in relation to field goal shot attempts.

And the effective field goal percentage:

With the exception of getting to the line, the Nets totally dominated this game. The offensive rebounding differential looks particularly promising.

Nets Individual Statistics

Another terrific performance by Antoine Wright. In fact, the "small" lineup of [Kidd-Carter-Wright-Jefferson-Collins] once again paid off for the Nets, earning a plus-five rating in approximately eight minutes of action. A big test for this lineup comes up later in the week, when Boston comes to town with Garnett and Perkins in tow.

These individual statistics are estimates based on the premise that teammates should share credit for points and scoring possessions based upon their individual contributions to each play. They are derived from the research of Dean Oliver, and more can be read in his book, "Basketball on Paper."

Glossary for Individual Statistics:

Scoring Possessions: A scoring possession is awarded to an individual when he contributes to a team scoring possession. If multiple players contribute, then credit is split among teammates based upon a formula.

Possessions: Number of team possessions used by a particular player.

Floor percentage: The percentage of a player’s possessions on which there is a scoring possession.

Offensive Rating: Points produced by an individual per 100 possessions, as calculated by a complex formula.

Points Produced: The number of points a player generates through various offensive contributions, including assists, field goals, free throws, and offensive rebounds.

Points Scored: Number of points actually scored by the player in the game, which is included here for comparison to points produced.

Percentage of Team Possessions: How often a player uses a team possession when he is in the game. With five players on the court, an average value would be 20%.

Plus/Minus: How much the team outscores the opposition when the player is in the game.

It was the most oft-asked question of the preseason: With a full stable of healthy, capable big men, how would Coach Frank distribute the minutes among them? Who would get to play?

Would you believe none of them?

OK, that’s a little overly dramatic. Obviously, all the big men have seen court time in the early going. However, three games into the 2007-08 season, Coach Frank has shown a surprising penchant for going small—that is, playing a lineup consisting of four of Kidd, Armstrong, Carter, Wright, RJ, and Boki, anchored by a center. As Dr. Seuss might have put it:

ALL
SMALL
All Small Play Ball.

Dr. Naismith, on the other hand, might just have asked: Does it work? Let’s look at the numbers:
As far as I can tell, the Nets have used a small lineup for just over 70 total minutes, or an incredible 47% of game time. That includes a full minute when Coach Frank used a lineup consisting of FIVE smalls (two separate lineups for thirty seconds each). More importantly, the small lineups have done pretty well, accumulating a combined plus-fifteen. The obvious beneficiary of this trend has been none other than lame-duck Antoine Wright, who is averaging 27 minutes a game, up from 18 a year ago (and just nine as a rookie).

The most common small units used have been:

• Kidd-Carter-Wright-Jefferson-Collins, 17 minutes and 23 seconds, plus-nine
• Armstrong-Carter-Wright-Nachbar-Magloire, 11 minutes and six seconds, minus-one
• Kidd, Wright, Jefferson, Nachbar, Krstic, 7 minutes and 21 seconds, plus-five
• Armstrong, Wright, Jefferson, Nachbar, S. Williams, three minutes and 44 seconds, plus-seven
• Kidd, Carter, Jefferson, Nachbar, S. Williams, three minutes and nine seconds, minus-eight
• Kidd, Carter, Jefferson, Nachbar, Boone, three minutes and one second, plus-three

For those who consider Nachbar a borderline "big," if we remove him from the analysis, we discover that the Nets have used combinations consisting of four of Kidd, Armstrong, Carter, Wright, and Jefferson for 24 and a half minutes—one-sixth of total game time—and such combinations have earned a plus-12 rating. Can we expect this trend to continue, or was Coach Frank just playing the best matchups against a particular opponent? Once Krstic works his way into playing shape, and Magloire and Malik Allen become more familiar with the Nets’ system, will Coach Frank’s use of these small lineups diminish? Perhaps a better question might be: Forget about the big men; once Marcus Williams returns, how will Coach Frank work all the smalls into the lineup? That’s something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Dumpy’s Statistical Analysis
November 3, 2007: New Jersey 93, Philadelphia 88

Jason Kidd achieved yet another triple-double, but the story line from this one was about whether the Nets could bounce back a night after the devastating blow-out against—dare we say it—rival Toronto. On a more personal note, I picked up Antoine Wright in my fantasy league just in time for tonight’s game, so you can bet I rooted extra hard for #21. Was it worth it? Let’s take a look. But first, the team numbers:

Team Statistics

Possessions. The number of possessions (i.e., each time a team brings the ball up court) is a way to measure the pace of the game. For games involving running or trapping teams, the number of possessions will be high, possibly more than 100. For more methodical teams, the number of possessions may be closer to 80. Possessions can (generally) end one of three ways: on a field goal attempt that is not rebounded by the offense (this includes successful FG attempts); on a turnover, or through some free throws. Since this is an estimate based upon various statistics, and because the number of possessions should be approximately the same for both teams, we will just present the average estimated number of possessions for both teams.

Offensive Rating. A team’s offensive rating is just the number of points scored per 100 possessions. The opponent's offensive rating can be considered the team's Defensive Rating. For the past few seasons, the average team offensive rating in
the NBA has hovered around 105.

Assist Percentage. The assist percentage measures the frequency that successful field goals have been assisted.

I believe that an assist ratio of around 70% to 75% is generally considered optimal.

"Big Four" Factors. The four primary factors that determine the outcome of a basketball game are: field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, turnovers, and the ability to get to the line and hit free throws. Offensive rebound percentage is measured as a percentage of rebound opportunities; turnovers are measured as a percentage of possessions; and free throws are measured by the percentage of time the team got to the line in relation to field goal shot attempts.

And the effective field goal percentage:

Better field goal percentage and better work on the boards. Although Philly got to the line more often, they converted a lower percentage of free throws. Had they not missed 11 attempts, we’d be writing a different story.

Nets Individual Statistics

Once again, RJ was the strongest player on the court. Although Armstrong earned an offensive rating of nearly 140, it has limited significance due to the low percentage of team possessions he used up. In this case, DA failed to record a turnover or miss a shot. Of course, he didn’t TAKE any shots, either. As for Wright . . . a solid offensive rating of 117. However, a long stretch of the fourth quarter went by without Antoine touching the ball, and, in fact, he used an estimated 12% of the team possessions while he was on the floor, which is nearly in Collins territory.

These individual statistics are estimates based on the premise that teammates should share credit for points and scoring possessions based upon their individual contributions to each play. They are derived from the research of Dean Oliver, and more can be read in his book, "Basketball on Paper."

Glossary for Individual Statistics:

Scoring Possessions: A scoring possession is awarded to an individual when he contributes to a team scoring possession. If multiple players contribute, then credit is split among teammates based upon a formula.

Possessions: Number of team possessions used by a particular player.

Floor percentage: The percentage of a player’s possessions on which there is a scoring possession.

Offensive Rating: Points produced by an individual per 100 possessions, as calculated by a complex formula.

Points Produced: The number of points a player generates through various offensive contributions, including assists, field goals, free throws, and offensive rebounds.

Points Scored: Number of points actually scored by the player in the game, which is included here for comparison to points produced.

Percentage of Team Possessions: How often a player uses a team possession when he is in the game. With five players on the court, an average value would be 20%.

Plus/Minus: How much the team outscores the opposition when the player is in the game.

Hello everyone, and welcome to another season of Dumpy’s Statistical Analysis. For the record, I’m Dumpy (not my real name), and what I try to do in this space is to take a numerical approach to analyzing the performance of the Nets and the individual players. I’m not a statistician by trade, but I love crunching numbers and detecting behavioral patterns, and so here we are. I had to end these reports in the middle of last season because of unexpected time constraints, but I’ll try to keep this going as long as my schedule permits [read: definitely not when the Nets play five in seven days], and we’ll see what happens.

There has been an explosion of basketball-related numerical data in recent years, such as John Hollinger’s work and that of the web site www.82games.com. However, we won’t blindly follow their analysis. Some of these other sources "hide" their formulas, and just present their data without context. What does it really mean that Jason Kidd has a "Hands" rating of 31.8? Is this good? How is this number derived? I have no idea, and, as far as I can tell, 82games.com doesn’t tell us anywhere on their site. In these columns, I try not to simply present numbers, but to explain where they come from and what they might mean. There’s no "magic formula" that can tell us, in one number, what player is better than another or why the team is successful. Numbers are just tools that inform our analysis, but they can’t replace it. That’s why it is imperative that we understand exactly what the numbers represent.

One statistic I happen to like a lot, which has gained momentum and become more mainstream, is the plus-minus figures earned by each player and combinations of players. The plus-minus rating is a way to measure each player’s combined offensive and defensive total contribution to the team. Two simple examples will show how this works, taken from a game against Miami on February 4, 2006 (why not?). In that game, Vince Carter was on the floor for 40.0 minutes, during which the Nets outscored Miami by a total of 21 points—so Carter earned a +21 rating. In Jacque Vaughn’s case in that same game, the Nets were outscored by the Heat by 10 points during the time he was on the court, so he "earned" a -10 rating. That’s all there is to it. Sometimes, you’ll see the plus-minus figure incorporate data of how the team did when a player was NOT on the court, but I don’t think that is too significant, since it essentially just compares the starter’s performance to that of his backup. In fact, each player’s plus-minus rating is now reported in the box scores found on www.NBA.com.

We can also measure plus-minus based on two-man combos, three-man combos, 5-man combos, etc., which can enable us to identify groups of players that play exceptionally well or poorly together. Data on 5-man combinations can help us identify the players that contribute the least or the most to team success by comparing different combinations that differ by one player. For instance, if we know that, over the course of the season, a unit consisting of [Kidd, Carter, RJ, Collins and Krstic] has outscored its opponent by a greater margin than a unit consisting of [Kidd, Carter, RJ, Magloire and Krstic] in the same number of minutes, then we can generally conclude that Collins adds more to the team success than does Magloire. However, we have to be careful not to make a sweeping generalization that Collins is better than Magloire; there may very well be other four-man combinations that Magloire plays better with than Collins does—it is just up to us to identify them. A web site called www.popcornmachine.net provides plus-minus figures on a game-by-game basis, and I rely on these figures.

This season, I’ll continue to attack those questions. In addition, I’ll continue some of the analaysis I did last season, which was based on the work of Dean Oliver, as set forth in his recent book, "Basketball On Paper."

Oliver describes methods for determining the efficiency of a team’s offense, as well as that of individual players. This season, we’re going use these methods to measure the efficiency of the Nets on a game-by-game basis. Here are some of the statistics that you’ll see:

Possessions
Basically, possessions are the number of times a team brings the ball up court. Counting the number of possessions in a game is a good way to measure the pace of the action. For games involving running or trapping teams, the number of possessions will be high—possibly more than 100. For more methodical teams, the number of possessions may be closer to 80. Regardless, the number of possessions will be approximately the same as the opposition in each particular game. Possessions can (generally) end one of three ways: on a field goal attempt that is not rebounded by the offense (this includes successful FG attempts); on a turnover, or through some free throws. Even though the NBA doesn’t count actual possessions, it can be estimated using those stats as they appear in the box score. You’ll see that we’ll also present the "average" number of possessions for both teams for better accuracy.

Offensive Rating
A team’s offensive rating is just the number of points scored per 100 possessions.

Defensive Rating
A team’s defensive rating is just the number of points scored by the opponent per 100 possessions.

Assist Percentage
This one is easy. The Assist Percentage measures the percentage of successful field goals that have been assisted.

"Big Four" Factors
Through his research, Oliver has discovered that there are four primary factors that determine the outcome of a basketball game: field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, turnovers, and the ability to get to the line and hit free throws. We’ll refer to these as the "Big Four" factors, and will measure them for both the Nets and their opponents. Offensive rebound percentage is measured as indicated above, as a percentage of opportunities. Likewise, turnovers will be measured as a percentage of possessions. We’ll measure free throws by measuring the percentage of time the team got to the line in relation to field goal shot attempts.

Scoring Possessions
This is an estimate of the number of times a team scores at least one point on a possession.

Field Percentage
This is an estimate of the percentage of times a team scores a basket on possessions where no free throws are awarded. This illustrates how well a team scores when not drawing fouls.

Number of plays
This is an estimate of the number of times that a team both gains control of the ball and when they lose control of the ball, either when the opposing team gains control or when a shot goes up. The number of plays will be greater than the number of possessions. For example, if a team misses a shot, gets the rebound, and then makes the follow-up, that would count as two plays and only one possession.

Play percentage
An estimate of the percentage of a team’s plays on which it produces a scoring possession.
In addition, we’ll use many of these same concepts to look at the efficiency of individual players within a game. These are the source of the individual "Offensive rating" numbers that can be found places such as www.basketball-reference.com. Applying these concepts to individuals is a complicated process, and, if I may say so, Mr. Oliver could do a better job at explaining them, and never addresses the error rate of the "points produced" stat (which we’ll address next time). Nevertheless, we’ll try to use these concepts as best we can, and in the next Analysis, I’ll try to tackle exactly what they mean and what they measure.

Let me add, too, that Oliver has devised a method of calculating an individual’s "defensive rating," which you may have heard of. Problem is, the data required to compute this figure is not recorded by the NBA. Oliver does the best he can, using a series of assumptions, but I have concluded that the number and scope of these assumptions really limit the value of this statistic. Upshot: You won’t see it here.

So this will be the typical format of one of my Analyses this coming year, and from time to time I’ll tackle a more challenging question as the mood strikes. Also, from time-to-time, we’ll provide year-to-date figures for these measurements, and compare them to those of other teams so you can see how the Nets stack up.

Because this intro has been so long, I’ll present just the basic information from the first game:

Possessions: 99
Offensive Rating: 113.6
Defensive Rating: 104.5
Assist Percentage: 72.5
"Big Four" Factors. As mentioned above, the four primary factors that determine the outcome of a basketball game are: field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, turnovers, and the ability to get to the line and hit free throws. Offensive rebound percentage is measured as a percentage of rebound opportunities; turnovers are measured as a percentage of possessions; and free throws are measured by the percentage of time the team got to the line in relation to field goal shot attempts.

And the effective field goal percentage:

That’s about enough for today. Let me just add that, on the individual front, Antoine Wright earned an offensive rating of 133.9 for his fine play, while Jefferson earned a sterling 138.4. Nenad Krstic, however, earned just a 75.1—even though he shot 50% from the floor, he committed more turnovers than assists, steals, and blocks combined, grabbed just a handful of rebounds, and failed to get to the line. Well, it’s early.

So, I hope to see you around. Have an enjoyable season! And don’t forget to write.
–Dumpy.