After last night's win, the O's stand at 4 games under .500, with 54 games left on the season (as luck would have it, exactly 1/3 left on the year).

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From today's Sun: (URL: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.orioles13jul13,1,3238006.story?coll=bal-sports-he adlines)

"O's talking to Marlins about deal for Burnett
Julio likely would be part of any trade for pitcher

By Dan Connolly

Sun Staff

Originally published July 13, 2005

DETROIT - The Florida Marlins have talked to at least six teams, including the Orioles, in the past few days about trading starting pitcher A.J. Burnett, baseball sources confirmed yesterday.

The Orioles are apparently in the Burnett sweepstakes, which may be headed by the aggressive Chicago White Sox. Also showing interest are Toronto, San Diego and both Los Angeles teams.

The Marlins are looking to acquire a late-inning reliever, with the Orioles' Jorge Julio considered a key part of a potential deal.

The Orioles reportedly won't dangle starter Daniel Cabrera but would consider including 20-year-old Hayden Penn as part of a package for Burnett, a 28-year-old right-hander.

Burnett, who is 5-5 with a 3.33 ERA in 17 starts, is making $3.65 million in the final year of his contract. The Orioles likely would want to negotiate a long-term deal with him before making any trade.

With starters Josh Beckett and Ismael Valdez nearly ready to come off the disabled list, the Marlins have seven potential candidates for the rotation. Their bullpen, however, needs to be upgraded.

Sun staff writer Roch Kubatko contributed to this article." And another article (I won't quote it this time) discussing the Jays' hope for landing the big fish: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/baseball/marlins/sfl-burnet13jul13,0,7922163.story?coll=sfla-sports-marlins

In yesterday's game-day thread, there were a few not-so-friendly comments about our old buddy, David Segui.  Coincidentally, an article in today's Sun has the following:

"David Segui, once paid $28 million over four years by the Orioles, is currently playing for the independent Kansas City T-Bones of the Northern League"

Hee hee....

Been thinking about the SP issues that the O's have been having, and all those trade rumors...  Is Schmidt worth the price?  What about Burnett?

Anyhow, the stat of "Quality Starts" comes to mind in how to evaluate the situation...

Here's how the O's currently stand with the starting pitching:

    GS    QS    Pct
Ponson    16    6    0.375
Lopez    16    8    0.500
Cabrera    15    6    0.400
Chen    15    10    0.667
Bedard    9    7    0.778
Penn    6    1    0.167

Now, historically, a team wins about 2/3 of the games in which the starting pitcher returns a QS & only about 1/3 of the games in which the starting pitcher does not return a QS.  (For info from 1984-1991, see http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/qstart.htm)  The predicted record for the O's then is:

2/3(38) + 1/3(77-38) = 38 Wins & 39 Losses

Ideally (let's say for 95 wins), a team needs about 123 quality starts over the course of the season - about 3/4 of its games.  We're definitely not on track for that right now...

Can we trade for a SP with a better percentage of quality starts?  The two names most passed around right now seem to be Jason Schmidt & A.J. Burnett.  Let's see how they stack up to each other:

Schmidt    GS: 14    QS: 6    Pct. 0.429
Burnett    GS: 15    QS: 13    Pct. 0.867

Schmidt isn't worth a trade - he probably wouldn't improve things much for Baltimore.  Besides, there are concerns about his arm health, anyway!
Now, Burnett....  hmmm....  He's definitely worth a serious look, but the Marlins' asking price right now seems a tad high.  I'd be glad to see Julio go, and I wouldn't cry too much over the loss of Cabrera, but I can't see Beattie & Flanagan letting Penn & Bigbie get away right now.  Too promising of a future.

Just my thoughts on the matter right now...

GO O's!