
Dwhite
Jun 10, 2009 Oct 23, 2011 2 289
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Denver Broncos
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The "lying" nature of Josh McDaniels
The below issue has bothered me for a while and I want to get it off my chest.
If you believe these "facts"
A. Josh McDaniels wanted Cassell badly.
B. Lied to Cutler about A.
C. Cutler really just wanted to hear that he was untradable.
D. Josh refused to tell Cutler that.
Then the conclusion would have to be that either
1. Josh really would never have considered trading Cutler (and so was lying to Cutler about anything to improve the team).
or
2. chose not to lie when it would have fixed the situation
or
3. accidently told the truth by mistake (or can't tell the difference?)
To me, none of these conclusions make sense so the assumptions must be incorrect (I would assume A and B).
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The long hard road to dominance (Fantasy Football style)
I've been savoring this site for over a month and wanted to post but really lacked anything useful to bring to the table. Someone else was asking for FF advice and I realized I do have something to contribute. I approach FF more from a strategy gaming perspective than from being a great evaluator of talent, so those of you who have that kind of insight as well will probably do even better than I used to do (I won about half the leagues I was in and almost always was in top 3).
The best way to draft takes some time unfortunately. I stopped playing FF about 5 years ago because it took so much time and I was not willing to do it half-way.
The key to drafting is to understand that everyone will have a player on their team at every position and (with the exception of some tpyes of defensive scoring) each player will be scoring points. The key is not necessarily to find the players with the most absolute points, but the player that will have the most points relative to other people at his position.
To start, count the # of starters at each position. For 10 teams with 2 RBs each, that would be 20 starters. So the 20th best running back is the base level. Then you calculate the points for every running back against that base. You can use last year's stats without the name attached and then put in the names in order as you think they will be ranked, or you can project stats for every player, the first is easier and about as accurate. Be sure to use an Excell spreadsheet. Set-up columns at least for yardage and TDs, possible for turnovers and receptions (for leagues that give points for receptions). If you have a sepearte cloumn for the formulas you can even use the same sheet for different leagues and just adjust the formulas accordingly (ex Colum B is TDs, column F is TDs times 6).
[These numbers are just made up for illustrive purposes]
So if the 20th best back gets 1100 total yards and 6 TDs with 1 pt/10 yds and 6 pts per TD that is 146 points. The best back gets 2100 total yards and 20 TDs. That would be 330 points. the "value" of the best back would then be 154 (330 - 146). The value of the next back might be 142, and so on. Do this for each position down through the back-ups (so probably 40 - 50 RBs depending on how deep your bench is) then rank all players by points. Below the strater level there will negative points, The exact same stats wil project differently depending on the scoring system of the league, number of teams, and position requirements. If there is a wildcard, easiest way to address it is to lower the base of the affected position on each of the affected positions. So if its 3 WR, 2 RB, and 1 WR/RB, I'd use the 35th best WR and the 25th best RB as the bases instead of 30th and 20th.
A lot of good people will look at the "playoff weeks: (usually weeks 15 and 16) and look for good matchups to help decide among different players. In my opinion there are too many variables to defensive strength to try to make that work. I'd rather be the best I can be every single week.
The last two rounds, consider not drafting by the points but for injury upside. Get the back-up to your QB or best RB, or get the back-up to the best QBs or RBs in the league. You can always pick up scrubs later to sub for bye week, but foresight during the draft can really help. Imagine last year your top rival's Tom Brady goes down and you already have Cassell on your bench.
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