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    <title>SB Nation User Blog:  DyingQuail</title>
    <link>http://www.sbnation.comhttp://www.sbnation.com/users/DyingQuail</link>
    <description>Posts made by DyingQuail on SB Nation</description>
    <item>
      <title>Reactions to the Astros' transactions, by the numbers</title>
      <link>http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/11/1196041/reactions-to-the-astros</link>
      <author>DyingQuail</author>
      <pubDate>Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:15:35 -0000</pubDate>
      <description type="html">

  &lt;div class=&quot;photo-tpl photo-tpl-right_landscape&quot;&gt;

    &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/reactions-to-the-astros&quot;&gt;&lt;img alt=&quot;Little know fact: Never has one player's $15 million contract ever caused so much vitriol, disdain, or such a fracas of negativity&#8212;about 86% of which was unwarranted (mine included).  Congratulations, Brandon Lyon.&quot; class=&quot;ap_photo&quot; src=&quot;http://cdn3.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/201991/157079_astrons_lyon_baseball.jpg&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
    
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          &lt;span&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/reactions-to-the-astros&quot;&gt;More photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;
        
        
          by Reinhold Matay - AP
        
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        &lt;p class=&quot;cap&quot;&gt;
          
          Little know fact: Never has one player's $15 million contract ever caused so much vitriol, disdain, or such a fracas of negativity&#8212;about 86% of which was unwarranted (mine included).  Congratulations, Brandon Lyon.
        &lt;/p&gt;
      
    &lt;/div&gt;  
    
    &lt;p class=&quot;more-link&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/reactions-to-the-astros&quot;&gt;Browse more photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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&lt;p&gt;There are a few sources that I trust and value for their penchant/availability for sabermetric insight/resources. &amp;nbsp;It's no secret that TCB has a sabr-slant with a streak of &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/HOU&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Astros&lt;/a&gt;-homerism mixed in as well. &amp;nbsp;I imagine that such is the plight for an sabr-fan. &amp;nbsp;Not surprisingly, the Astros have taken a beating this week in the majority of the places I referenced, but there have been a few that shrugged their shoulders with relative indifference, possibly bordering on distanced approval.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In spite of my professed sabr-leanings, as I'm sure you've gathered, I'm prone to a more subjective gut reaction that I'll then cloud with number's based evidence, and roll from there. &amp;nbsp;Eventually, the emotions will die down, and I'll filter through all the statistical evidence (Usually clack will do that for me off the bat. Clack is like my sabr-fan sensei.). Consider this post a post-moretum recap from the various statistical voices who have either denounced or did not denounce (I really don't think anyone truly approved of any deal, just couldn't find a strong reason to disapprove).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I'll break the reactions down by three categories: The Indifferent, the bad, and the ugly, but move in reverse order. After the jump&lt;/p&gt;


  
&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;The Ugly:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Per usual, the pundits at Fan Graphs didn't hesitate to lambast one of their favorite whipping boys: Ed Wade. &amp;nbsp;Dave Cameron called &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/585/Brandon_Lyon&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Brandon Lyon&lt;/a&gt;'s signing&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-worst-signing-of-the-winter&quot;&gt;the worst of the winter&lt;/a&gt;, citing luck inflated stats, mediocre FIP, and value that won't match his contract. &amp;nbsp;Below, Zach Levine takes him to task, and clack has already fleshed out the weaknesses of Cameron's argument here in a few places. &amp;nbsp;Matthew Carruth also decreed the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/832/Pedro_Feliz&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Pedro Feliz&lt;/a&gt; signing as terrible, reasoning:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;font face=&quot;Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif&quot; size=&quot;3&quot; color=&quot;#333333&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-size: 11px; line-height: 13px;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-is-houston-doing&quot;&gt;Addressing the hole at third base is a good idea for Houston, but you don&amp;rsquo;t address a hole by filling it with air. You already have plenty of air; why bother paying money to import premium air from Philadelphia?&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whether their arguments resonante as truth, depends on how much faith you want to put in the numbers that they cite. While I initially was on board with Lyon as being a miserable signing, I've backed off that stance since, and I never saw the Feliz deal in such a negative light. &amp;nbsp;There's a certain level of sabr-dogmatism that seems to filter through these two assessments of the Ed Wade's moves from the week and that's never a healthy approach.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It should be noted that Fan Graphs did approve of the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/480/Matt_Lindstrom&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Matt Lindstrom&lt;/a&gt; signing at the time.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;The Bad:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/12/10/1195153/beyond-the-box-score-on-the-astros&quot;&gt;Beyond the Box Score&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;didn't exactly crucify Ed Wade like Cameron and Carruth did at Fan Graphs, but they were far from giving Ed Wade credit. &amp;nbsp;They were able to read positives into all three transactions of the week, but also a lot to cringe at, too. &amp;nbsp;While caustic of the Lyon signing, they approved of the Lindstrom deal, and could, in the end, see some positive in the Feliz signing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Zach Levine crunched the numbers that Cameron cited for Lyon and came to a far more neutral assessment of Lyon's penchant to produce for the Astros. &amp;nbsp;Levine pretty much sees the potential for upside in all three of the Astros transactions the week, but can't find a lot to smile at, either. &amp;nbsp;Reading through his summary of the transaction, I glean a disapproval, but nowhere is their the vitriol that Fan Graphs ladled &amp;nbsp;on the deals:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;font face=&quot;Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif&quot; size=&quot;3&quot; color=&quot;#333333&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-size: 11px; line-height: 13px;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://blogs.chron.com/unofficialscorer/2009/12/numbers_on_the_astros_signings.html&quot;&gt;The Astros have to hope that was some AL jitters or something and not some mistrust of his stuff as the clock struck 30. Carry that mediocre walk rate, which he'd never had before, and return that BABIP to average, and you've got yourself a very mediocre pitcher for a killer price....With Feliz's 35th birthday coming in April, Astros fans have to hope that steady OPS doesn't begin to decline and that he's still got it defensively, though I can't imagine the Astros will lean on him for 158 games like the Phillies did last year....As for Matt Lindstrom, that seems like a fine move, and people I trust who have seen the minor leaguers have told me the haven't given up anything they couldn't afford to, and I think the price is right and his production will level off from last year's bad ERA.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Levine kind of straddles both the Bad and the Indifferent, but I feel like he sits more in the Bad camp than the Indifferent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;The Indifferent:&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Professor of economics, JC Bradbury is currently at work on a book about the Hot Stove. &amp;nbsp;He's already published on book on economics and baseball, too. &amp;nbsp;So when he renders an opinion on the matters of player valuation, my ear's perk up. &amp;nbsp;Bradbury, of all the sabr-slanted writers I've read, came the closest of any to giving a implicit seal of approval to Ed Wade's deals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For both Lyon and Feliz, Bradbury believes the Astros will actually garner surplus value from the contracts. &amp;nbsp;For Lyon, he even stated that&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/12/astros-sign-lyon/&quot;&gt;the deal seems right&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;Not that it's a good deal, but that price tag fits the purchase. Feliz,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://twitter.com/jc_bradbury/status/6545192658&quot;&gt;the same thing&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Finally,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lindstrom-to-houston&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Fan Graphs did like the Lindstrom signing&lt;/a&gt;, so I'll tally it in the Good.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;***********&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;There are more links that could fit in the bad and the ugly categories, but they would just be repetitions of the same arguments&amp;mdash;basically. We've already noted all the relevant projections for all the players that will soon be donning an Astros uniform here, and in all it looks like this week has resulted in a marginally improved baseball team (if you consider the fact that the Astros couldn't afford to hold onto Valverde and Tejada). &amp;nbsp;Does this mean Ed Wade did a good job this week? As fans,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/10/1195585/ed-wade-and-the-astros-busy-week&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;we seem to be leaning towards the indifferent to bad categories&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;Considering that Ed Wade had a limited budget, little chance of gaining premium pieces, has upgraded the defense, and at least filled the bull pen with average to slightly above-average relievers for around $11.5 million in extra spending, I don't think the week was ugly. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;Whether it was bad or indifferent, though, is hard to say&amp;mdash;at least by the numbers. &amp;nbsp;Arguments can be made for either cause, it just depends on how you want to spin it: As a sabr-slanted observer, or as a fan looking for hope in 2010.&lt;/p&gt;
  


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      <title>Ed Wade and the Astros' busy week: How would you grade it?</title>
      <link>http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/10/1195585/ed-wade-and-the-astros-busy-week</link>
      <author>DyingQuail</author>
      <pubDate>Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:08:36 -0000</pubDate>
      <description type="html">

  &lt;div class=&quot;photo-tpl photo-tpl-right_portrait&quot;&gt;

    &lt;a href=&quot;http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/331138/610x.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;img alt=&quot;via cache.daylife.com What grade will Ed Wade receive?&quot; class=&quot;imported_asset&quot; src=&quot;http://cdn3.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/201598/610x_large.jpg&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
    
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          via &lt;a href=&quot;http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0ebKe9Sffq5hA/610x.jpg&quot;&gt;cache.daylife.com&lt;/a&gt; What grade will Ed Wade receive?
        &lt;/p&gt;
      
    &lt;/div&gt;  
    
    &lt;p class=&quot;more-link&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/331138/610x.jpg&quot;&gt;View full size photo &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

  &lt;/div&gt;


&lt;p&gt;It's been a crazy few days. &amp;nbsp;Tension mounted. Emotions ran high. &amp;nbsp;Ed Wade made headlines. &amp;nbsp;The dust has officially settled in Indianapolis, but not so much around these parts. &amp;nbsp;Tomorrow, I imagine that &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/480/Matt_Lindstrom&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Matt Lindstrom&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/585/Brandon_Lyon&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Brandon Lyon&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/832/Pedro_Feliz&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Pedro Feliz&lt;/a&gt; will be paraded in front of the media and don their &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/HOU&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Astros&lt;/a&gt; jerseys.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As the people who've weaseled their ways into the publishing content at this place, we gotten to be outspoken about our feelings. Front and center so to speak. I'll quickly recap them:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On Pedro Feliz (&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/10/1194814/report-astros-sign-pedro-feliz-for&quot;&gt;whom clack deemed to be not a bad signing&lt;/a&gt;):&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;font face=&quot;Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif&quot; size=&quot;3&quot; color=&quot;#333333&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-size: 11px; line-height: 13px;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/10/1194813/busy-final-day-sees-astros-sign&quot;&gt;Yes, that defense has deteriorated with his age and yes, he doesn't get on base. But, Feliz is a much better player at this point than Blum and can provide a good stopgap until the club feels Chris Johnson is ready to go.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On Brandon Lyon (who made me lose sleep):&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;font face=&quot;Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif&quot; size=&quot;3&quot; color=&quot;#333333&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-size: 11px; line-height: 13px;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/10/1194228/ed-wade-gets-his-relievers-but&quot;&gt;If you haven't picked up on the meme of this post, it's that I can't figure this deal out. It's really not a terrible deal for any team that has payroll flexibility and a total dearth of options for their bull pen. But for the Astros&amp;mdash;especially after the Lindstrom trade&amp;mdash;Ed Wade dropped the ball in a big way. Yes, Lyon might bounce back to his 2008 control and have his 2009 strand-rate and BABIP, but why gamble one-half to one-third of your budget on it?&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On Matt Lindstrom (who won Ed Wade good will):&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;font face=&quot;Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif&quot; size=&quot;3&quot; color=&quot;#333333&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-size: 11px; line-height: 13px;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/9/1193610/lets-talk-lindstrom-the-newest&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;Who else were the Astros going to get for three years at controlled money? None of the free agents were going to sign for that little over that many years, nor would the Astros want to commit to any of them for that long.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Opinions, outside of ours, varied around these parts&amp;mdash;and rightfully so. &amp;nbsp;But let's not let those varied opinions, and our respective rights to them, stand in the way of forming some kind of consensus opinion on the subject. You have to reactions we had and the links where you can review the various discussions surrounding them; basically everything you'd ever need to evaluate Ed Wade's big week. &amp;nbsp;So what say you?&lt;/p&gt;
  


 	&lt;fieldset class=&quot;poll-box&quot;&gt;
  &lt;legend&gt;Poll&lt;/legend&gt; 
  &lt;h5 class=&quot;poll-title&quot;&gt;If you could hand out a grade for this week's transactions it would be:&lt;/h5&gt;
  
    
&lt;div id=&quot;poll_container_57363_1072300986&quot;&gt;
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&lt;p class=&quot;poll-vote-submit&quot;&gt;&lt;input class=&quot;button&quot; name=&quot;commit&quot; type=&quot;submit&quot; value=&quot;Vote!&quot; /&gt; &amp;nbsp;  401 votes | &lt;a href=&quot;#&quot; onclick=&quot;new Ajax.Request('/polls/results/57363?container_id=poll_container_57363_1072300986', {asynchronous:true, evalScripts:true}); return false;&quot;&gt;Results&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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    <item>
      <title>Ed Wade gets his relievers, but what did the Astros get?</title>
      <link>http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/10/1194228/ed-wade-gets-his-relievers-but</link>
      <author>DyingQuail</author>
      <pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 06:46:51 -0000</pubDate>
      <description type="html">

  &lt;div class=&quot;photo-tpl photo-tpl-right_landscape&quot;&gt;

    &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/ed-wade-gets-his-relievers-but&quot;&gt;&lt;img alt=&quot;Congrats man, you're average in every way, but you just got paid.&quot; class=&quot;ap_photo&quot; src=&quot;http://cdn0.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/200531/124537_tigers_mariners_baseball.jpg&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
    
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          &lt;span&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/ed-wade-gets-his-relievers-but&quot;&gt;More photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;
        
        
          by Elaine Thompson - AP
        
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        &lt;p class=&quot;cap&quot;&gt;
          
          Congrats man, you're average in every way, but you just got paid.
        &lt;/p&gt;
      
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    &lt;p class=&quot;more-link&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/ed-wade-gets-his-relievers-but&quot;&gt;Browse more photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

  &lt;/div&gt;


&lt;p&gt;So an hour or so ago I said that I would have to wait until tomorrow to process the day's events, but I lied. A solid hour of tossing and turning while visions of mediocre relief pitchers parading as closers danced in my head lead me back to my laptop. &amp;nbsp;Mediocre relief pitchers parading as closers, that's kind of what we got today. &amp;nbsp;Not so much in Lindstrom,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-worst-signing-of-the-winter&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;but definitely in Lyon&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;Now I can't help but think Dave Cameron is being a little hyperbolic in his assessment of &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/585/Brandon_Lyon&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Brandon Lyon&lt;/a&gt;, but everything he says is correct. &amp;nbsp;Lyon isn't good. Period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;He's average in every respect. &amp;nbsp;Compare him to anyone else already in the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/HOU&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Astros&lt;/a&gt; bullpen and you'd lose him in the haze of mediocre total-skill sets. &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/549/Alberto_Arias&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Alberto Arias&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/377/Chris_Sampson&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Chris Sampson&lt;/a&gt; have high ground ball percentages. &amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/31916/Jeff_Fulchino&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Jeff Fulchino&lt;/a&gt; is just a clydesdale that is dependable. &amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/480/Matt_Lindstrom&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Matt Lindstrom&lt;/a&gt; has life his is stuff that portends to better things to come. Sammy Gervacio has an awesome delivery that gives him difficult to distinguish stuff. &amp;nbsp;Brandon Lyon literally is average in every respect. &amp;nbsp;Pick a stat or a trait. Look at it. It'll be average.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Lyon will definitely go down as a not good signing. &amp;nbsp;Will it ever be a signing that's cited more than two years after the contract is completed? No. Carlos Lee was a bad signing, so was &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/328/Barry_Zito&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Barry Zito&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;Lyon is just a poor signing&amp;mdash;for the Astros. &amp;nbsp;If any other team inked Lyon to this deal, it probably wouldn't resonate as much as it does right now. There's the Ed Wade loves relief pitching too much factor. There's the luck inflated ERA factor (thank God they're upgrading defense a SS, we think). And there's the this team doesn't have the payroll flexibility to afford this factor. &amp;nbsp;Those three factors make this signing laughable to outsiders and repugnant to Astros fans.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But I don't think it's bad because of in 2011 and 2012, just 2010. We never had enough money to start with this winter. &amp;nbsp;Ed Wade had just made a pretty savvy little trade with the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/FLA&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Florida Marlins&lt;/a&gt; to bring in someone who would add depth to a bullpen that didn't need a closer because the Astros won't be good enough to justify needing a true closer, much less over paying for one (which they didn't even end up doing). &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Really, he could have just stopped there. &amp;nbsp;I would have continued to actually be content and happy with the state of this team for at least a few hours. &amp;nbsp;And then the malaise of being an Astros fan could have set back in when I realized I was happy not because my team had gotten better, but because my team didn't do anything to make themselves measurably worse off. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But now it appears as though they have.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Can we afford &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/34/Miguel_Tejada&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Miguel Tejada&lt;/a&gt; back? Nope. Can we&amp;mdash;realistically&amp;mdash;afford a worthwhile fill in at 3B? Probably not. At this point, offering &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/338/LaTroy_Hawkins&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;LaTroy Hawkins&lt;/a&gt; arbitration has never looked so good to me.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now, I'm left wondering the following questions: Why did we have to move so fast to sign a relief pitcher who could be a closer? There were still options out there; we didn't really even need someone else (i.e. another closer-esque reliever is a luxury, not a necessity). &amp;nbsp;Why move so fast on Lyon and offer him everything he wanted? Why not try to whittle him down in price or years (preferably price, but only scantly)? What will Ed Wade use to justify Lyon versus someone with promise and an ability to add worthwhile value to the team...like say &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/1010/Mike_Gonzalez&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Mike Gonzalez&lt;/a&gt;?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;(Please don't let it be his 2009 ERA, please, please, please, please don't. I won't be able to take it. Something of mine will break after I hurl it against something if I awake to an Ed Wade quote about Lyon's ERA.)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For a brief moment it felt like the Astros had faced the reality of their situation: they have to stop pretending they are contenders. &amp;nbsp;Lindstrom was a savvy trade to provide a cost-controlled insurance for the backend of the bullpen for the next few years. &amp;nbsp;It allowed us wiggle room to try and fill in other gaps that could actually have placed us in the faint pale of the glow of contenders. &amp;nbsp;After that trade I smiled because I was proud of Ed Wade. He'd made a move that was exactly what this team needed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But now, with Lyon inked for too much, we're hamstrung. &amp;nbsp;It's like Ed Wade is waiving the white flag on finding help at 3B or SP and figured he'd roll the dice on Lyon and see what happened. &amp;nbsp;It's ilke he's forgotten that things like signing Joel Pinero late in the game can make the a huge difference, if you have the money to do it at the time. Or he's forgotten about all the players who signed late in the ball game at just about every position last year, too.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you haven't picked up on the meme of this post, it's that I can't figure this deal out. &amp;nbsp;It's really not a terrible deal for any team that has payroll flexibility and a total dearth of options for their bull pen. &amp;nbsp;But for the Astros&amp;mdash;especially after the Lindstrom trade&amp;mdash;Ed Wade dropped the ball in a big way. &amp;nbsp;Yes, Lyon might bounce back to his 2008 control and have his 2009 strand-rate and BABIP, but why gamble one-half to one-third of your budget on it?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To answer this post's title: The Astros got nothing the needed, just something a few in the front office might have wanted. &amp;nbsp;Now they're left wanting things that can't afford. &amp;nbsp;So, I guess they got &lt;span style=&quot;text-decoration: line-through;&quot;&gt;screwed&lt;/span&gt;&amp;nbsp;hamstrung. &amp;nbsp;There's really nothing about Lyon's signing that can bring cause to justify it. &amp;nbsp;There was a lot in the Lindstrom trade, but that's been buried under the mountain of inanity that is three years and fifteen million dollars for Lyon.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Of course, we also have yet to hear the final word on Lyon's deal. &amp;nbsp;So maybe myself, Dave Cameron, and just about every baseball person I follow on Twitter will be eating crow tomorrow...or so I can hope.&lt;/p&gt;
  


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      <title>Fast Eddy keeps going: Astros ink Brandon Lyon</title>
      <link>http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/9/1194073/fast-eddy-keeps-going-astros-ink</link>
      <author>DyingQuail</author>
      <pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:12:02 -0000</pubDate>
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  &lt;div class=&quot;photo-tpl photo-tpl-right_portrait&quot;&gt;

    &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/fast-eddy-keeps-going-astros-ink&quot;&gt;&lt;img alt=&quot;I just got signed?!&quot; class=&quot;ap_photo&quot; src=&quot;http://cdn3.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/200318/124803_tigers_angels_baseball.jpg&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
    
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          &lt;span&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/fast-eddy-keeps-going-astros-ink&quot;&gt;More photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;
        
        
          by Danny Moloshok - AP
        
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        &lt;p class=&quot;cap&quot;&gt;
          
          I just got signed?!
        &lt;/p&gt;
      
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    &lt;p class=&quot;more-link&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/fast-eddy-keeps-going-astros-ink&quot;&gt;Browse more photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

  &lt;/div&gt;


&lt;p&gt;[&lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;UPDATE&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-weight: normal;&quot;&gt;] I think Zach Levine has it best at trying to find a silver lining:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://twitter.com/thescorer/status/6522171720&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Brandon Lyon had a very strong 2009 overall but walk rate skyrocketed. Could be an AL thing, though. -Z&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the end of the day (quite literally at 11:30PM) this feels like a classic Ed Wade move, but just not one that seems like it'll really ever come back to bite us too hard. &amp;nbsp;Will he catch a lot of flack for it yes. &amp;nbsp;Could it prove to be a decent enough signing in hindsight? It could. He's proved the pundits (myself included) wrong many times.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It's been a long day, with a lot to digest. &amp;nbsp;Maybe tomorrow I finally have gained my bearings on today's transactions. Can you get a hot stove hangover?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[&lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;UPDATE&lt;span style=&quot;font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;&quot;&gt;] Rosenthal has the deal at&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10496890&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;$15 million over three years&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;The section I've added at the end about cost-effective now has to be amended. &amp;nbsp;I don't know why Ed Wade overpaid for Lyon's services. &amp;nbsp;He could have just gone an extra year on &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/338/LaTroy_Hawkins&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;LaTroy Hawkins&lt;/a&gt; and come out top.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-weight: normal;&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;span style=&quot;font-style: normal;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/1010/Mike_Gonzalez&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Mike Gonzalez&lt;/a&gt; is still on the market and would have been a better fit (I'm just bitter the Gonzalez deal didn't come to fruition in the end, I guess). &amp;nbsp;Yes, Lyon is only thirty, but it's not like he's got a closer's repertoire.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But, because there always is one, it's not like Lyon will kill us at this price, so I think my points below still kind of apply (just lessen my adulation of Wade and sort of turn my overall feeling back to relative indifference).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[&lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;UPDATE&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-weight: normal;&quot;&gt;] Apparently FOX 26 is way ahead of the curve on this one. &amp;nbsp;They have it as a three year deal. &amp;nbsp;This deal is edging closer to getting a big thumbs down.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/6520915307&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;This one&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;has come kind out of left field. &amp;nbsp;There was literally no news of this until FOX 26&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.myfoxhouston.com/dpp/sports/mlb/091209-astros-reach-deal-lyon&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; popped up&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;in my RSS feed (those things are like the dinosaurs now). &amp;nbsp;There's no news yet on the amount or years, but it has been confirmed that we have reached an agreement with &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/585/Brandon_Lyon&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Brandon Lyon&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;The deal is, of course, pending a physical.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Lyon is actually rated as highly as &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/587/Jose_Valverde&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Jose Valverde&lt;/a&gt; is by CHONE. &amp;nbsp;Not that means too terribly much. Lyon posted a&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1312&amp;position=P&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;4.06FIP/4.24xFIP&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;in 2009. &amp;nbsp;He is pegged by Bill James to post a 3.88 FIP in 2010. Last year he struggled with his control (1.84 K:BB) after having a career year in that department in 2008 (3.38 K:BB); but Bill James has him as posting a 2.11 K:BB and&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/FREE2010p.htm&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;CHONE&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;foresees a 2.23 K:BB; he also has a career GB% of 42.5%. &amp;nbsp;He's not exactly your protypical closer, but he definitely fits the mold of what Wade was looking for: someone who closed out baseball games before.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the very least, this deal gives us competition for who takes the ball in the ninth inning during spring training, and gives us a plethora of fringe closer-candidates to eventually develop into a strong enough back end of the rotation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Costs will be the key for this deal, but I imagine Lyon couldn't have raked in too much. &amp;nbsp;More to come when the amounts and years are released.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;********&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;I still don't know the dollar amounts on this, but if it's cost effective, I have to give Wade credit for today. &amp;nbsp;The Matt Lindstrom trade didn't really force the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/HOU&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Astros&lt;/a&gt; to give up anything that they couldn't live without, and I have to imagine that Lyon, even at three years, will provide reasonably costs service during that period of time. &amp;nbsp;So that's two relievers for three years, all at a reasonable price. &amp;nbsp;Even when Arias, Sampson, and Fulchino start qualifying for arbitration, the bullpen will not be the expense that hamstrings us.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;In all, I think I have to say I'm pleased with the gambit of Wade's. &amp;nbsp;He's positioning us nicely for the clubs&amp;mdash;hopeful&amp;mdash;turnover in 2012-2013. &amp;nbsp;There seems to be some real foresight into today's moves. &amp;nbsp;Nothing flashy, but definitely serviceable. &amp;nbsp;We'll be a bullpen of Honda Civics, but that's not a bad thing to be in our current state as franchise.&lt;/p&gt;
  


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      <title>Astros near deal with Lyon...?</title>
      <link>http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/9/1194066/astros-near-deal-with-lyon</link>
      <author>DyingQuail</author>
      <pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:05:11 -0000</pubDate>
      <description type="html">
&lt;h3 class=&quot;link-title&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.myfoxhouston.com/dpp/sports/mlb/091209-astros-reach-deal-lyon&quot;&gt;Astros near deal with&amp;nbsp;Lyon...?&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;div class=&quot;description&quot;&gt;&lt;p&gt;This is the ONLY place I've seen or heard this.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
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      <title>Astros close to Lindstrom deal...maybe...well...you know how it goes</title>
      <link>http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/9/1193579/astros-close-to-lindstrom-deal</link>
      <author>DyingQuail</author>
      <pubDate>Wed, 09 Dec 2009 21:49:19 -0000</pubDate>
      <description type="html">

  &lt;div class=&quot;photo-tpl photo-tpl-right_portrait&quot;&gt;

    &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/astros-close-to-lindstrom-deal&quot;&gt;&lt;img alt=&quot;It looks like this man will be closing out our games in 2010.  I just hope we don't give up too much.&quot; class=&quot;ap_photo&quot; src=&quot;http://cdn2.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/199925/131572_brewers_marlins_baseball.jpg&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
    
    &lt;div class=&quot;photo-meta&quot;&gt;
      &lt;p class=&quot;by clearfix&quot;&gt;
        
          &lt;span&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/astros-close-to-lindstrom-deal&quot;&gt;More photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;
        
        
          by J Pat Carter - AP
        
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        &lt;p class=&quot;cap&quot;&gt;
          
          It looks like this man will be closing out our games in 2010.  I just hope we don't give up too much.
        &lt;/p&gt;
      
    &lt;/div&gt;  
    
    &lt;p class=&quot;more-link&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/astros-close-to-lindstrom-deal&quot;&gt;Browse more photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

  &lt;/div&gt;


&lt;p&gt;[&lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;UPDATE&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-weight: normal;&quot;&gt;]&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4728817&amp;campaign=rss&amp;source=MLBHeadlines&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Gammons is reporting&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;that Lindstrom is flying to Houston for a physical with team doctors. &amp;nbsp;Still no word on the players involved in the trade. (h/t) OremLK.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So the news has been spotty all day with this Lindstrom deal. &amp;nbsp;There's absolutely no word on who the prospects would be. &amp;nbsp;There's no word on if it would just Lindstrom from the Marlins. &amp;nbsp;There's just knowledge that the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/HOU&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Astros&lt;/a&gt; are trying to acquire &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/480/Matt_Lindstrom&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Matt Lindstrom&lt;/a&gt; from the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/FLA&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Florida Marlins&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One minute I read this from Ken Rosenthal:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/6509122021&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Astros close on Lindstrom. Swapping medicals.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So that makes one think, I guess we'll know exactly what's happening in just a few minutes. &amp;nbsp;But then McTaggart had this just a few minutes later from Wade:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/6509482779&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&quot;We may be back you guys with something by the end of the night. We hope so.&quot;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then Footer got this from Wade a few minutes after that:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://twitter.com/alysonfooter/status/6509531514&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&quot;We need someone who's closed games before. I think we'll accomplish that. We'll have somebody back there...&quot;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Lindstrom certainly has the experience, but are we really in a position to trade prospects for Lindstrom? I'm not sure what the Marlins would ask for, but I also don't think we have anyone we can even part with that won't cause us to flinch in agony when we read the name.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now McTaggart is stating the following (I guess we'll know soon):&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;line-height: 16px;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/6509817336&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Lindstrom tells MLB.com Astros and Marlins exchanging medical records&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
  


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      <title>Astros Hot Stove Noise 12/09: Hawkins could be a Brewer? Wade talking trade for Lindstrom? and a hefty surprise, too</title>
      <link>http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/9/1193053/astros-hot-stove-noise-12-09</link>
      <author>DyingQuail</author>
      <pubDate>Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:29:25 -0000</pubDate>
      <description type="html">

  &lt;div class=&quot;photo-tpl photo-tpl-right_portrait&quot;&gt;

    &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/astros-hot-stove-noise-12-09&quot;&gt;&lt;img alt=&quot;This is not who you want to trade for to close out baseball games.&quot; class=&quot;ap_photo&quot; src=&quot;http://cdn1.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/199557/125191_phillies_marlins_baseball.jpg&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
    
    &lt;div class=&quot;photo-meta&quot;&gt;
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          &lt;span&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/astros-hot-stove-noise-12-09&quot;&gt;More photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;
        
        
          by Jeffrey Boan - AP
        
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        &lt;p class=&quot;cap&quot;&gt;
          
          This is not who you want to trade for to close out baseball games.
        &lt;/p&gt;
      
    &lt;/div&gt;  
    
    &lt;p class=&quot;more-link&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/astros-hot-stove-noise-12-09&quot;&gt;Browse more photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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&lt;p&gt;The winter meeting this year have been phenomenal to follow via Twitter. Unfortunately, the tweeting yesterday was primarily about a lot of non-news&amp;mdash;save the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/NYY&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Yankees&lt;/a&gt;/&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/DET&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Tigers&lt;/a&gt;/Dbacks blockbuster. &amp;nbsp;Today, for &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/HOU&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Astros&lt;/a&gt; fans, things have heated up on the stove.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first chunk of news this morning is that the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/MIL&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Brewers&lt;/a&gt; are having &quot;&lt;a href=&quot;http://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/6499704760&quot;&gt;fast-track&lt;/a&gt;&quot; talks with &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/338/LaTroy_Hawkins&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;LaTroy Hawkins&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;Per&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/8/1191718/some-thoughts-on-the-astros-closer&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;our discussion&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;about the closer situation yesterday, I'm cool with the Brewcrew over paying for Mr. Hawkins' service. The more I've thought all of our options out, the more I've fallen in love with idea of a&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/549/Alberto_Arias&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Alberto Arias&lt;/a&gt; / &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/1010/Mike_Gonzalez&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Mike Gonzalez&lt;/a&gt; platoon. Whether any of the news about Hawkins and the Brewers actually means the Brewers will ink Hawkins, or if Hawkins has interest, remains to be seen. I just hope this doesn't mean we're raising our bottom line on Hawkins.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The more surprising bit of news from this morning is that the Astros are apparently in&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2009/12/rumor-mill-rangers-interested-in-jorge-c.html&quot;&gt;extensive talks&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;with the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/FLA&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Marlins&lt;/a&gt; for &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/480/Matt_Lindstrom&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Matt Lindstrom&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;Yes, Matt Lindstrom of the&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4604&amp;position=P#advanced&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;4.47FIP/4.65xFIP/5.04tRA in 2009&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;The same Lindstrom of the non-impressive 2009 and not projected to be too much improved in 2010, either (&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/FLO2010p.htm&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;CHONE&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;and&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4604&amp;position=P&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Bill James&lt;/a&gt;). &amp;nbsp;Say it ain't so Eddy. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There's no word on who would be involved in this deal, but I don't think anyone here would be too pleased. We're not a team in a position to trade for big-league talent, we're a team in a position to either purchase it on the market, or unload a veteran contract for youth. &amp;nbsp;That's it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unfortunately, it looks like Eddy is in the works on a trade. &amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://twitter.com/alysonfooter/status/6500578808&quot;&gt;Footer tweeted&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;that Wade's had a lot of discussion about a possible trade. &amp;nbsp;Judging by the rumor mill, this trade sounds like it's either Lindstrom, or &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/966/Rafael_Soriano&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Rafael Soriano&lt;/a&gt;. Of course, the later is just something&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://blogs.chron.com/baseballblog/archives/2009/12/rafael_soriano.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;more speculative by JJO&lt;/a&gt;, who I don't even believe is at the winter meetings, but those are the only two trades that have any legitimate basis tagged to the Astros. JJO's reasoning on the trade is basically that one team has too many closers, one team has too few, and that Ed Wade likes Soriano's agent. &amp;nbsp;This doesn't exactly make a ton of sense. &amp;nbsp;That's not exactly why a trade would get done, seemingly&amp;mdash;I hope.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The only way I'd like the Soriano deal, is it involved this ridiculously far fetched rumor about Carlos Lee&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://bleacherreport.com/articles/304753-a-possible-trade-for-carlos-lee&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;being a trade candidate&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;for the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/ATL&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Braves&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;I would take Soriano for Lee straight up. &amp;nbsp;It would make my entire &lt;span style=&quot;text-decoration: line-through;&quot;&gt;life&lt;/span&gt;&amp;nbsp;2009-2010 winter.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Since that's not happening, I will continue to cross my fingers all day and wait for the news that the Astros have inked Mike Gonzalez and that LaTroy Hawkins got over paid by the Brewers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[&lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;UPDATE&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/b&gt;] It's looks like Ed Wade really might being trying to trade for a closer. He indicates in this&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://brianmctaggart.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/12/ed-wade-gives-late-morning-update.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;McTaggart interview&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;that we have pieces that make sense for a trade. &amp;nbsp;Hopefully Bobby Heck chokes him out before he can pick up his cell phone and tell some other GM &quot;deal.&quot;&lt;/p&gt;
  


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      <title>Some thoughts on the Astros' closer situation</title>
      <link>http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/8/1191718/some-thoughts-on-the-astros-closer</link>
      <author>DyingQuail</author>
      <pubDate>Tue, 08 Dec 2009 20:05:13 -0000</pubDate>
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  &lt;div class=&quot;photo-tpl photo-tpl-right_landscape&quot;&gt;

    &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/some-thoughts-on-the-astros-closer&quot;&gt;&lt;img alt=&quot;I'm going on record as stating I want this man to be the guy we sign as our closer...and then immediately platoon him.&quot; class=&quot;ap_photo&quot; src=&quot;http://cdn1.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/198765/151745_braves_nationals_baseball.jpg&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
    
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          &lt;span&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/some-thoughts-on-the-astros-closer&quot;&gt;More photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;
        
        
          by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP
        
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        &lt;p class=&quot;cap&quot;&gt;
          
          I'm going on record as stating I want this man to be the guy we sign as our closer...and then immediately platoon him.
        &lt;/p&gt;
      
    &lt;/div&gt;  
    
    &lt;p class=&quot;more-link&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/some-thoughts-on-the-astros-closer&quot;&gt;Browse more photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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&lt;p&gt;With yesterday's news that Jose Valerde would be walking away from the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/HOU&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Houston Astros&lt;/a&gt;&amp;mdash;most likely&amp;mdash;and the news that &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/338/LaTroy_Hawkins&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;LaTroy Hawkins&lt;/a&gt; is in Indy this afternoon meeting with the front office, the faint buzz surrounding the Astros is what are they going to do about closing out ballgames in 2010. &amp;nbsp;Now, this would normally be the time I'd bust out a bevy of various projections about each option we have, but there are only two major projection systems that have been released: CHONE and Bill James. &amp;nbsp;That didn't stop me from busting them out, however.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When we get down to brass tacks, what we look for in a closer is someone who will a) create outs and b) minimize the other team's run expectancy. &amp;nbsp;I've tried to capture that in the four options I can see the Astros front office considering as closer-capable. &amp;nbsp;I averaged the two projection systems' projections in an effort to curb overly negative or overly positive trends amidst the skill sets. I know that this isn't the most efficacious methodology, but these are meant to serve more as a launching pad for more nuanced discussion.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/223763/Screen_shot_2009-12-08_at_2.58.03_PM.png&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;img class=&quot;photo&quot; src=&quot;http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/223763/Screen_shot_2009-12-08_at_2.58.03_PM_medium.png&quot; alt=&quot;Screen_shot_2009-12-08_at_2&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;Interestingly enough, LaTroy Hawkins, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/1010/Mike_Gonzalez&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Mike Gonzalez&lt;/a&gt;, and Alberto Arias are equally valued by CHONE's projection system (click&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/FREE2010p.htm&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;and&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/HOU2010p.htm&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;). &amp;nbsp;The caveat here is that if you rank them by projected value per projected IP, then list goes Arias (44pIP), Gonzalez (51 pIP), and Hawkins (57pIP). &amp;nbsp;Looking at it all, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/549/Alberto_Arias&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Alberto Arias&lt;/a&gt; becomes my favorite. Strong enough strikeout numbers, and control that will likely improve with age, could result in an extreme-ground ball pitcher who still gets the Ks; the walks are troubling, though, but I think the ground balls minimize them.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;Clack threw out an idea&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/8/1190829/jose-valverde-rejects-arbitration#26794101&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;earlier today&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;that the Astros sign Gonzalez and platoon he and Arias in the 8th and 9th innings based on match-ups. &amp;nbsp;Upon hearing the news I instantly began to wonder whether Ed Wade was savvy enough to pull of this move. &amp;nbsp;It involves spinning the deal in such away that it doesn't scare off Gonzalez, but not bringing him in under so false a pretense that he shuts down mentally once he realizes his plight. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;After trying to think of the appropriate spin, I realized it was just time to bust out some numbers and think of it that way. &amp;nbsp;Based on their splits between LHB and RHB, we'd certainly see some upside from Mike Gonzalez, who is dramatically more effective against lefties (&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=gonzami02&amp;year=Career&amp;t=p#plato&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;as measured by K:BB&lt;/a&gt;). &amp;nbsp;Arais, too, would see a&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=ariasal02&amp;year=2009&amp;t=p#plato&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;bump in his performance&lt;/a&gt;, but the swing isn't as dramatic as Gonzalez's.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;I'm not as sure of what Gonzalez is seeking on the open market. &amp;nbsp;But as a former Houstonian, you have imagine he'd take a pay cut, and at age 31, two years wouldn't be a bad call at all. &amp;nbsp;That would be two years of maximizing the production of two key assets, and a relatively cheap price (when you average the two salaries). &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt;In truth, I think that the only chance the Astros have over the next few years is going to be through outside of the box thinking and wonky solutions like this one. &amp;nbsp;The good news is that there&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://twitpic.com/spgen&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;appears to be evidence&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;that analysis plays some role in the decision making process for us. &amp;nbsp;Which is good news, considering I thought we might have been one of the&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=3792:winter-meetings-buzz-two-clubs-dont-use-analytics&amp;catid=30:mlb-news&amp;Itemid=42&quot;&gt;two teams who have yet employee anyone who specializes in baseball analysis&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;Then again,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-big-trade/&quot;&gt;looking at this trade&lt;/a&gt;, it appears the Dbacks are probably one of those two.&lt;/p&gt;
  


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      <title>LaTroy Hawkins coming to Indy this afternoon to meet with Astros.</title>
      <link>http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/8/1191522/latroy-hawkins-coming-to-indy-this</link>
      <author>DyingQuail</author>
      <pubDate>Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:29:28 -0000</pubDate>
      <description type="html">
&lt;blockquote&gt;
  &lt;p&gt;LaTroy Hawkins coming to Indy this afternoon to meet with&amp;nbsp;Astros.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
  
&lt;div class=&quot;source&quot;&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/6470635204&quot;&gt;Brian McTaggart, via Twitter&lt;/a&gt;.  Me thinks a Hawkins signing could be done by the week's end. Just no more than $4 million, Eddy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
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      <title>Astros Hot Stove Noise 12/07: Valverde might be back</title>
      <link>http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/12/7/1189588/astros-hot-stove-noise-12-07</link>
      <author>DyingQuail</author>
      <pubDate>Mon, 07 Dec 2009 16:56:43 -0000</pubDate>
      <description type="html">

  &lt;div class=&quot;photo-tpl photo-tpl-right_portrait&quot;&gt;

    &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/astros-hot-stove-noise-12-07&quot;&gt;&lt;img alt=&quot;Someone, pay this man&#8212;now.&quot; class=&quot;ap_photo&quot; src=&quot;http://cdn1.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/197286/142083_giants_astros_baseball.jpg&quot; /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
    
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          &lt;span&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/astros-hot-stove-noise-12-07&quot;&gt;More photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;
        
        
          by Pat Sullivan - AP
        
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          Someone, pay this man&#8212;now.
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    &lt;p class=&quot;more-link&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.crawfishboxes.com/photos/astros-hot-stove-noise-12-07&quot;&gt;Browse more photos &amp;raquo;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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&lt;p&gt;So I slept in this morning just for my mental and physical health. &amp;nbsp;Not the greatest idea on the first Monday of the Winter Meetings. &amp;nbsp;As I scrolled through all 107 and tweets on my baseball list on my phone, I realized why this hot stove will be better than any in years past: Twitter. &amp;nbsp;When Rosenthal, Olney, and anyone else with their ears open can instantly inform the masses about a whispered rumor, the hot stove gets that much hotter.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But I digress.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ken Rosenthal let the world know, at 1:15 AM, that &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/587/Jose_Valverde&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Jose Valverde&lt;/a&gt; could be&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10357594&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;accepting arbitration&lt;/a&gt;. &amp;nbsp;Before a panic sets in, Rosenthal never uses a word stronger than could in the discussion. &amp;nbsp;So it could be a simple as Valverde has the option of taking arbtration from the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/HOU&quot; class=&quot;sbn-auto-link&quot;&gt;Astros&lt;/a&gt;, Rosenthal can post that and make &lt;span style=&quot;text-decoration: line-through;&quot;&gt;me&lt;/span&gt;&amp;nbsp;Astros fans&amp;nbsp;panic.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I'm probably trying to neuter the rumor so much because it would be a huge blow to this team if Valverde does take the arbitration. &amp;nbsp;I keep reading figures like $10 million for his award, but I imagine it'd be closer to $8-9 million. Eitherway, that'd be an absurd amount of money to allocate to a guy whose only function is to pitch the final inning of a game in which the team would be winning by less than three runs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Rosenthal's evidence is just the dynamics of the closer's market in general this year. &amp;nbsp;Perusing the&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;2011 Free Agent list&lt;/a&gt;, Valverde would be &lt;i&gt;the&lt;/i&gt;&amp;nbsp;closer. &amp;nbsp;So maybe there's some teeth to this rumor after all, even though there was no real attempt to tie this to a source.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Here's to hoping someone steps in and offers Valverde the multi-year deal he's seeking. &amp;nbsp;As much as I've come to not distrust Ed Wade, I don't trust him trying to leverage the best deal for Valverde at the 2010 trade deadline. &amp;nbsp;I'd rather us just get the draft picks and put them Bobby Heck's capable hands.&lt;/p&gt;
  


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