I'm writing here just to respond to a lot of the rhetoric against the deep passes this week on third down. At first, I agreed with the criticism, but I've watched as it's evolved into this sort-of belief that anything past 10 yards on 3rd and 3 is a BAD IDEA. Now that, I think, is not just wrong -- it's a weakening of your offense. So let's discuss this...

First, you need to trust me when I say, I’m the guy in Madden who throws the slant over the middle or the tight end hook pattern on EVERY third down I need to pick up. I think it's important to say that, so that you know while I'm not totally being a devil's advocate here, believe me when I get the short timing pass on 3rd and 3. Or the slant out. Or whatever. I throw it in Madden about 90% of the time, because I know it will work 90% of the time. That’s the difference between Madden and the NFL, though. You can’t become that predictable in the NFL. It doesn’t mean you should go deep on every third and short, but even more than that it means that if you think it’s the best route you have for picking up the first down because the defense is clamping down over the middle, then go ahead and throw a few of those long ones. A slant or short route would have been a fantastic call. But the long passes Gailey was dialing up were also a fantastic call, particuarly because it communicates something to the defense -- that they can’t relax EVER. If we’d converted one or two of those, this wouldn’t even be a topic of discussion. The long pass in that situation does demand almost perfect execution from your offense. The protection has to be good, the throw has to be there, and the catch has to happen.  True, the short slant isn't that demanding, which is why it's a higher percentage play, but what's also true is that it doesn't dictate to the defense in quite the same way. That's not being stressed as much as it should be around here this week.  It really is an even trade.

I also realize that David Nelson was somewhat being taken away due to his effectiveness. That's also part of the equation, but it's beside the point that I want to discuss here. I just wanted to provide an alternate voice or a different slant on this opinion. I’m the last guy in the world I thought would be arguing against the possession route on 3rd down, but let’s be realistic. It’s not the call in this case that’s the problem.

Because it can succeed on literally every down and distance, the long pass is a valid play on ANY down when the coverage is deemed right.   That's the point. It's got to be. It has to be part of the playbook rotation where you can at least trot it out as an audible at any given point in time. You can't be afraid of throwing it just because the down and distance and statistics dictate something else, or because you failed at it the last two times and it would look embarrassing to fail again.  Do that, and the opposing defense has enough of an idea of your plans where they can attack you confidently.  Was it sprinkled in a little much last week?  Perhaps.  The way I see it, Buffalo chose to attack where they saw the most prevalent weakness.  That might be a weak silver lining, but I'll be damned if I don't take that misstep over gameplans that throw 1-yard passes to the flat on 3rd and 9.  I'll err on the side of aggression before I'll call plays without a pulse any day.

I haven't done a FanPost in a while, and I've been humming to put together some thoughts on our beloved Jazz and contribute them to the site. So I thumbed through some stats to see what I could pull together. For a while I was a little dismayed at the lack of being able to find a story. I couldn't find any particular member of the Jazz that looked like they were lighting up a particular stat. BBJ did mention the other night that we seem to be taking Deron Williams (22 ppg and 10 apg) for granted, so maybe that applies here, but still I didn't find anything that really screamed to be "Holy crap, this guy's doing insanely well for us".

But that is the story of this 2010-11 season so far. Check out some of our team statistics...

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We, the fans, are pumped. 

We watched you become one of the very best, in a very short time, in San Diego.

We know you have detractors, people who say you can't do it anymore.

We, the fans, say, "Welcome to Buffalo, Shawne!"

We're ready to embrace you, and we relish the thought of cheering you on, as you shut your detractors up in front of 73,079 strong.

We think you can continue to be a great player in this league, a great player for our team, and a great person in our community. 

And we want you here, because we want WINS, and we know you can help us do it.

Welcome to Buffalo!

I feel very strongly as a fan that the 7-9 and 6-10 seasons of the past decade have hurt our team.  When coupled with a largely ineffective draft class (paging Mr. Modrak), our 7-9 and 6-10 seasons have kept us just good enough not to bottom out, but not good enough to compete for a playoff berth.  Like a fever that cannot be gotten rid of before it is allowed to break, an NFL team typically cannot be rid of its ills until it is allowed to hit rock bottom.  Look at our season records in the last decade.

2001 (G. Williams) 3-13

2002 (G. Williams) 8-8

2003 (G. Williams) 6-10

2004 (M. Mularkey) 9-7

2005 (M.  Mularkey) 5-11

2006 (D. Jauron) 7-9

2007 (D. Jauron) 7-9

2008 (D. Jauron) 7-9

2009 (D. Jauron, P. Fewell) 6-10

2010 (C. Gailey) 0-4 so far

Look also at the Bills of the 1980s.

1983 (K. Stephenson) 8-8

1984 (K. Stephenson) 2-14

1985 (K. Stephenson, H. Bullough) 2-14

1986 (H. Bullough, M. Levy) 4-12

1987 (M. Levy) 7-8

1988 (M. Levy) 12-4

1989 (M. Levy) 9-7

1990-1993 4 Super Bowl appearances

Maybe it's just me, but there's not really any reason to freak out because the rest of the league is calling us the NFL's whipping boy.  I'm actually very relieved that we seem to finally be crashing.  If we'd done this earlier, who knows, we might have purged our scouting staff, and we might be out of it by now.  I contend that we need to hit rock bottom as a franchise for one, two, and yes, maybe even three years if we want to pull up out of this nauseating 7-9, 6-10 cycle. 

We also need to get some kind of successful scouting department and give our coach a break on that basis, given that he's won in other places, and that he's only 4 games into his job here.  Marv Levy inherited a team that had won only 7 of its last 46 games, and his first two years were with Bills teams that went 11-20.  We likely won't have the same luck that bringing in Bill Polian had in the 80s, but we sure won't if we don't try.

Okay, now that I am removed from the emotional high and low of the game thread, I am going to attempt to construct a rational basis based on the situation that happened at the end of the 4th quarter vs. Miami.  I do support Chan Gailey just as much now as before the game, because a coach has to have much more than one season game and an offseason before anyone starts proclaiming success or failure on him.   So just don't get the masochistic suicidal wrist-slashing Bills-fan vibes.  :) 

So here's the situation.

With 1:30 left, the Bills had the ball on their own 1 yard line, 4th and 10 to go and trailing by 3 points.

The Bills chose to take an intentional safety.  This put them down by 5 points and without possession of the ball.  The hope was that the defense could stop the Miami offense on a 3 and out, giving the Bills possession of the ball again at an area not in the shadow of their own goal line.  This happened.  The defense actually stopped Miami.

With :29 seconds left, the Bills had the ball on their own 20 yard line, 1st and 10 to go and trailing by 5 points.

There are arguments supporting the intentional safety, mostly based on the idea that going for it on 4th down, when we had failed on 1-3rd downs, had effectively zero chance of succeeding.  That belief is based on the failure of our offense up to that point.  The reality is, any one play has a chance of connecting for ten yards.  Why do terrible offenses routinely find themselves able to pick up 10 yards at a time at the end of the game?

In rebuttal I ask this:  which of those two bolded situations actually gives a team zero chance to win the game?  Which situation would you rather be in as an offense?  Are the Dolphins capable of giving up an 80 yard drive in 29 seconds to an offense with NO timeouts?  Or are the Bills more capable of picking up a 4th and 10 at their own 1, conserving their timeouts, and only needing a 70 yard drive to tie in 1:30?  Yes, that's a leap of faith.  But is that any more of a leap of faith than hoping the defense would even stop Miami after the safety?

I know that this play wasn't "what lost the game" in the sense that it can't receive the blame for the loss.  I know this, I know this, I know this.  I know this.  Let's face it, the defense, while not perfect, played well enough to win the game.  The offense didn't, and they bear the blame.  But that's not what this is about.  That's not what this is about, because, with 1:30 left, none of that mattered.  With 1:30 left, the Bills had a diminished chance to win, but not an unrealistic one.  The only thing that mattered at that stage was Trying to win with what was left of the game.  It ws important to correctly assess the best chance from the situation at the end of the game.  Had we gone for it on 4th down, a) we lose immediately; or b) we keep our timeouts, keep about a minute on the clock, and keep our chance at the field goal. Yes, it was risky, but in ITS successful execution (unlike the alternative plan), we have realistic chances.

By taking that intentional safety, we placed our faith in the defense stopping Miami and thus putting our offense in an impossible situation with 29 seconds left.  That wasn't even a realistic risk.  We effectively surrendered our realistic chances of pulling out any kind of a comeback.  It doesn't mean we should fire our coach or even THINK about firing him.  It doesn't even mean we should think the Bills are going to do worse this year than any of us thought.  But it was practically the definitive wrong decision at the end of the game.

We all love our Bills.  But I am curious, since we are a varied community of Bills fans, we are also sports fans.  As such, I am curious as to what our secondary teams are.  Many of us have a second (or even third) team in another sport that we root for almost as passionately (or just as passionately) as we do for the Buffalo Bills.  I know that a lot of people are going to post "SABRES BABY YEEEAHH" so, just for this exercise, if the Sabres are your secondary team, your post is probably going to look a lot like a bunch of other people's.

So what teams do you passionately root for other than the Bills?

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There are a lot of Bills fans, myself included, that would like to see Tyler Thigpen in a Buffalo uniform as a potential fit, at least a contender, for our starting quarterback gig.  Thigpen's fairly young, athletic, has a gunslinger mentality.  Given the Dolphins QB situation (Henne, PWhite and possibly Pennington), you guys don't seem to have a real need for TT at the moment.

- Could Buffalo reasonably expect Miami to listen to an offer for Thigpen from their division rival?  

-  If so, obviously there will be some offers and counteroffers.  What level of compensation would the Dolphins be likely willing to traffic in? Not what kind of picks do you want Miami to ask for, but what kind do you think would actually be in the discussion?

Donte Whitner and Bryan Scott are injured, and for the moment, the Bills have quality depth.  When they return, however, a logjam at the safety position will ensue.  Scott is a bonafide run stopper and has shown he is extremely competent at covering opposing tight ends.  Whitner is a solid tackler with cornerback speed and .  Jairus Byrd, simply put, is THE WORD.  Great instincts, eyes on the quarterback, and presence around the ball, though his run defense could use work.

Our linebacking corps has been shattered by injury, and, well, by incompetence.  With Veek and Digi out for the year, and Keith Ellison performing yeoman's if unpolished work, Chris Draft seems to have replaced Ashlee Palmer as the third starting LB.  Easily the weakest sector of the Bills defense, the linebacking corps has been largely at fault for allowing big run plays to develop, whether by overpursuing their gaps, allowing runners around the corner, or just poor tackling in general.

How can the Bills maximize the talent and manpower of their secondary, minimize the weakness of their linebacking corps?

First of all, I am not talking about changing scheme.  I am talking about the inclusion of more 4-2-5 sets within the Bills' Cover 2 defense.  The 4-2-5 is a nickel formation of sorts that, by using four linemen, two linebackers, and five defensive backs, can sustain an amount of flexibility without compromising strength.  The 4-2-5 nickel can be used in a number of ways.

I'm not advocating benching Reggie Corner as the nickelback.  Personnel being as it is, Reggie Corner will be on the field, just not in this particular package.  The Back 7 personnel would look like this:

Poz and Ellison/Draft at LB (ideally Kawika). McGee and Florence at CB. Byrd, Whitner, and Scott at S.

In the 4-2-5, the position of the safety relies upon the read.  Jairus Byrd would likely man the traditional FS spot in any case.  This does some great things for our defense.  Try to visualize these scenarios:

On perceived running plays or double tight end formations, Whitner would man the SS while Bryan Scott would line up in the box.  It would be Scott's job to play run as a first read.  In a 2 TE set, Scott would key on the TE opposite Whitner's position to give minimum yardage in case of a playaction pass pattern.  In a 1-TE set, Scott roves to the weakside, playing run first, to provide cutback gap support.

On perceived passing plays or multiple wide receiver formations, Whitner adjusts to the slot while Scott settles into the SS position.  This gives multiple WRs safety help from the Cover 2 while allowing someone like Whitner to guard a Wes Welker.

That planning might seem sensible, but a little rigid.  True, but here's the equalizer:  With two linebackers being slightly off from their traditional gaps, and a roving "safety" lined up anywhere from the strongside of the box or the weakside (Scott), to the slot (Whitner), I believe this is a formation built for the zone blitz, if there ever was one.   Zone blitzes out of this package, with the linemen dropping into coverage as they do in a zone blitz, could be downright disorienting to interpret from the QB position.  Flood blitzes, iso blitzes, stunts, decoys, and fake pressures can come in any number, from any direction.  That would keep the 4-2-5 unpredictable and hard to attack consistently.

Some potential weaknesses of the subpackage:

-  Successful downhill running teams can attack it by punching right at it.  If the defense is kept on the field, this has the effect of wearing out the safeties while Corner and Youboty get cold on the sideline.  Not a big issue, because it's just a subpackage.

-  During two-minute drills, this is not an ideal defense because the time it may take to read and react to the offensive formation may not be readily available.  So it might not be smart to use at the end of halves.

-  Playaction and misdirection plays may be the bane of the set, as they can punish undisciplined defenders.   Ehh, but this is true of any defensive set.  Be disciplined, make good tackles, and follow your reads.  No formation is a replacement for good football fundamentals.

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The 4-2-5 could be something the Bills would do well to think about, at least going forward, if we would like to both use our safeties and keep our linebacker weakness controlled.  As a spice, not a main course, it could keep our defense unpredictable, still solid, and able to throw in wrinkles (not stay so basic all the time).

I roomed with a guy in college who played kicker for Texarkana High School (Texas side).  The quarterback on my roommate's team was a guy from Arkansas named Ryan Mallett.  He ended up going to Michigan, transferring back to Arkansas, and now he's being looked at as a serious NFL prospect in a year or so.

I also went to high school (Conway, Arkansas) with a guy named Peyton Hillis.  This guy was an unstoppable halfback in Conway, it was fun to watch him destroy all the hated Little Rock schools in our division.  Peyton ended up going t the Razorbacks, who made him a fullback.  He was drafted by the Broncos, and has been enjoying somewhat of a nice NFL career.

In college (Central Arkansas) I was in the marching band, and we always formed the tunnel for the football team to march out.  One time, we started into the fight song, and the players came out all excited as usual.  #11 accidentally brushed by me coming onto the field, knocking my sax to the ground.  Stunned, I backed up and recovered it.  I watched as he couldn't stop and turn around, or he'd get trampled by his teammates, but he sorta turned around to apologize.  I looked him up after the game.  This guy's name was Jacob Ford.  I didn't think anything of it until this year, when I saw him (on the Tennessee Titans) come blowing in around the left tackle to almost sack Peyton Manning.

Now if somebody like me from a town like Conway, Arkansas has these connections, I know other Bills fans do.  Have you ever met, had any run-ins with, or otherwise have a connection with any Bills or NFL players?

When the Buffalo Bills began the Dick Jauron era, hopes were high, but cautious.  Now, on the eve of the 2009 season, many of the same hopes have become flat and cynical.  Pessimissts predict a 4-12 season and an overhaul of the coaching staff.  Bills optimists believe a 9-7 season, with a possible playoff berth, is realistic this year.  But behind that optimism lies not a naive hope, but a serene preparedness.  The optimistic fan comes up with a contingency plan for failure this year, and then stops worrying about what-ifs.  With our contingency plan in the back of our minds, we should be free to be confident and interested in the season ahead.  Certainty begets confidence, and confidence eliminates dread.  FDR once said, "The only thing we have to fear is FEAR itself."  This means that we can be hopeful as a fan base if we simply have an idea in our minds of what should happen if this year's goals of this year are not met.

Once we have settled on preparation for the worst, we can come back to the present more confident, relaxed Bills fans.  After all, we will either win satisfyingly this year, or we will have a solid plan otherwise.  With this in mind, let's ask ourselves those pessimisstic questions creatively.  This FanPost uses a continuous train-of-thought pattern to do the beginning of the work for you.  After the jump, we'll examine our fears, and take a look at the contingency plan, should things indeed get ugly this year.

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I'm generally a Bills optimist. I have the team making the playoffs each year, albeit at a wild card position. So that got me thinking, why don't I feel the Bills can compete with New England in the East or with the other AFC teams for a Super Bowl berth? What reasons are there? New England seems like they own the division, but in the end they are just a football team like us, made up of players and position coaches just like us. I have to believe that it is not all poor playcalling and coaching which holds us back. So for the purposes of this FanPost, I'm throwing that out.

Now, if there are personnel weaknesses on our team (and there are), where are they? That's when the realization hit me about the weak points of our team. We are good at the fast, skill positions, on both sides of the ball. And our lines on both sides of the ball are suspect. and our question marks are the offensive line's ability to produce and our defensive line's ability to create pressure. On offense, running back is a stacked position. Nothing more need be said there. At wide receiver, despite our injuries at the position in camp, Buffalo maintains one of the deepest corps in the NFL. QB is a question mark, with a solid Edwards not entirely set in statuesque form yet in Buffalo, and Fitzpatrick as our potentially inconsistent backup. But so is the offensive line. We have Langston Walker at left tackle. He's capable but would be better at right tackle where he can face power rushers, not speed rushers. Our two rookies at guard are going to receive some lessons on the job this year from defenders, and even Kent Hull would have a tough time dealing with Kris Jenkins and Wilfork. Hang is decent, but no Hull.

On defense, our secondary seems to be the strength of the team. Donte Whitner's questionable playmaking ability being the only real chink in our armor. Our linebackers would be fine if we only had to play 2 on the field at a time (Poz and Kawika) -- and thankfully, any time the Bills go to a nickel, dime, or quarter defense, that's what we'll get. The trick is getting the defensive line to establish a talented, attacking presence.

Let me make this clear: I'm not advocating the replacement of a single Buffalo Bill. I'm also not calling the lines bad and the rest of the team good. My key argument here is that our front office seems to have ignored the basic football principle of building a team from the lines. It's true that busts and underachievers have been part of this. But the team's brass has to this point failed to plan for that contingency. It might be time for Russ Brandon to draw the line. Implement a line-based offseason strategy and focus on making our lines healthier.

I guess what I am trying to say is that efforts have been made. But should we desire to compete for the NFL title year in year out, we should look at the yearly contenders. The contending teams almost always have a Top 5-10 caliber offensive and defensive line. Therefore, we should not stop working until we, too, have such. Simple logic.

P.S. Thank you Bills FO for getting Wood and Levitre!

Even if the Bills hadn't acquired T.O. this week, their wide receiver position was loaded with players who each have a difficult time climbing up the depth chart. With the addition of Owens, our WR position is further crowded with players who could be waiting to emerge alongside players who have hit their personal ceiling.

This post is to gauge opinion about the distribution of snaps.  It's fairly clear that each of our three depth receivers have their unique talents; however, when does diversity of our receiver corps begin holding players back from their full potential? 

Who do the Bills give more snaps? Roscoe, Hardy, or Johnson?

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