SB Nation User Blog: Dyl

Potential defensive subpackage: the 4-2-5

Dyl — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 07:17:29 -0000

Donte Whitner and Bryan Scott are injured, and for the moment, the Bills have quality depth. When they return, however, a logjam at the safety position will ensue. Scott is a bonafide run stopper and has shown he is extremely competent at covering opposing tight ends. Whitner is a solid tackler with cornerback speed and . Jairus Byrd, simply put, is THE WORD. Great instincts, eyes on the quarterback, and presence around the ball, though his run defense could use work.

Our linebacking corps has been shattered by injury, and, well, by incompetence. With Veek and Digi out for the year, and Keith Ellison performing yeoman's if unpolished work, Chris Draft seems to have replaced Ashlee Palmer as the third starting LB. Easily the weakest sector of the Bills defense, the linebacking corps has been largely at fault for allowing big run plays to develop, whether by overpursuing their gaps, allowing runners around the corner, or just poor tackling in general.

How can the Bills maximize the talent and manpower of their secondary, minimize the weakness of their linebacking corps?

First of all, I am not talking about changing scheme. I am talking about the inclusion of more 4-2-5 sets within the Bills' Cover 2 defense. The 4-2-5 is a nickel formation of sorts that, by using four linemen, two linebackers, and five defensive backs, can sustain an amount of flexibility without compromising strength. The 4-2-5 nickel can be used in a number of ways.

I'm not advocating benching Reggie Corner as the nickelback. Personnel being as it is, Reggie Corner will be on the field, just not in this particular package. The Back 7 personnel would look like this:

Poz and Ellison/Draft at LB (ideally Kawika). McGee and Florence at CB. Byrd, Whitner, and Scott at S.

In the 4-2-5, the position of the safety relies upon the read. Jairus Byrd would likely man the traditional FS spot in any case. This does some great things for our defense. Try to visualize these scenarios:

On perceived running plays or double tight end formations, Whitner would man the SS while Bryan Scott would line up in the box. It would be Scott's job to play run as a first read. In a 2 TE set, Scott would key on the TE opposite Whitner's position to give minimum yardage in case of a playaction pass pattern. In a 1-TE set, Scott roves to the weakside, playing run first, to provide cutback gap support.

On perceived passing plays or multiple wide receiver formations, Whitner adjusts to the slot while Scott settles into the SS position. This gives multiple WRs safety help from the Cover 2 while allowing someone like Whitner to guard a Wes Welker.

That planning might seem sensible, but a little rigid. True, but here's the equalizer: With two linebackers being slightly off from their traditional gaps, and a roving "safety" lined up anywhere from the strongside of the box or the weakside (Scott), to the slot (Whitner), I believe this is a formation built for the zone blitz, if there ever was one. Zone blitzes out of this package, with the linemen dropping into coverage as they do in a zone blitz, could be downright disorienting to interpret from the QB position. Flood blitzes, iso blitzes, stunts, decoys, and fake pressures can come in any number, from any direction. That would keep the 4-2-5 unpredictable and hard to attack consistently.

Some potential weaknesses of the subpackage:

- Successful downhill running teams can attack it by punching right at it. If the defense is kept on the field, this has the effect of wearing out the safeties while Corner and Youboty get cold on the sideline. Not a big issue, because it's just a subpackage.

- During two-minute drills, this is not an ideal defense because the time it may take to read and react to the offensive formation may not be readily available. So it might not be smart to use at the end of halves.

- Playaction and misdirection plays may be the bane of the set, as they can punish undisciplined defenders. Ehh, but this is true of any defensive set. Be disciplined, make good tackles, and follow your reads. No formation is a replacement for good football fundamentals.

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The 4-2-5 could be something the Bills would do well to think about, at least going forward, if we would like to both use our safeties and keep our linebacker weakness controlled. As a spice, not a main course, it could keep our defense unpredictable, still solid, and able to throw in wrinkles (not stay so basic all the time).

Do you have a Bills/NFL connection story?

Dyl — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:11:17 -0000

I roomed with a guy in college who played kicker for Texarkana High School (Texas side). The quarterback on my roommate's team was a guy from Arkansas named Ryan Mallett. He ended up going to Michigan, transferring back to Arkansas, and now he's being looked at as a serious NFL prospect in a year or so.

I also went to high school (Conway, Arkansas) with a guy named Peyton Hillis. This guy was an unstoppable halfback in Conway, it was fun to watch him destroy all the hated Little Rock schools in our division. Peyton ended up going t the Razorbacks, who made him a fullback. He was drafted by the Broncos, and has been enjoying somewhat of a nice NFL career.

In college (Central Arkansas) I was in the marching band, and we always formed the tunnel for the football team to march out. One time, we started into the fight song, and the players came out all excited as usual. #11 accidentally brushed by me coming onto the field, knocking my sax to the ground. Stunned, I backed up and recovered it. I watched as he couldn't stop and turn around, or he'd get trampled by his teammates, but he sorta turned around to apologize. I looked him up after the game. This guy's name was Jacob Ford. I didn't think anything of it until this year, when I saw him (on the Tennessee Titans) come blowing in around the left tackle to almost sack Peyton Manning.

Now if somebody like me from a town like Conway, Arkansas has these connections, I know other Bills fans do. Have you ever met, had any run-ins with, or otherwise have a connection with any Bills or NFL players?

Bills joke of the day

Dyl — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 01:51:22 -0000

If this is not "Bills enough" for BR, I understand, feel free to take it down. It's just in light of the bummed nature of our community of late, I thought we could use a good laugh to break up the monotony.

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A guy from Buffalo dies and is sent to Hell. He had been a horrible man his entire life.

   The devil puts him to work breaking up rocks with a sledgehammer. To make it worse, he cranks up the temperature and the humidity. After a couple of days, the devil checks in on his victim to see if he is suffering adequately. The devil is baffled as the guy from Buffalo is happily swinging his hammer and whistling a happy tune.

   The devil walks up to him and says, "I don't understand this. I've turned the heat way up, it's humid, you're crushing rocks; why are you so happy?" The guy from Buffalo, with a big smile, looks at the devil and replies, "This is great! It reminds me of August in Buffalo . Hot, humid, a good place to work. It reminds me of home. This is fantastic!"

   The devil, extremely perplexed, walks away to ponder the remarks of the guy from Buffalo . Then he decides to drop the temperature, send down a driving rain and torrential wind. Soon, Hell is a wet, muddy mess. Walking in mud up to his knees with dust blowing into his eyes, the guy from Buffalo is happily slogging through the mud pushing a wheelbarrow full of crushed rocks. Again, the devil asks how he can be happy in such conditions.

   The guy from Buffalo replies, "This is great! Just like April in Buffalo . It reminds me of working out in the yard with spring planting!" The devil is now completely baffled but more determined to make the guy from Buffalo suffer. He makes the temperature plummet. Suddenly Hell is blanketed in snow and ice. Confident that this will surely make the guy from Buffalo unhappy, the devil checks in on him.

   He is again shocked at what he sees. The guy from Buffalo is dancing, singing, and twirling his sledgehammer as he cavorts in glee. "How can you be so happy? Don't you know its 40 below zero!?" screams the devil.

Jumping up and down, the guy from Buffalo throws a snowball at the devil and yells, "Hell's frozen over! This means the BILLS won the Super Bowl."

Bills' Fans: On the Eve of 2009

Dyl — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 03:54:02 -0000

When the Buffalo Bills began the Dick Jauron era, hopes were high, but cautious. Now, on the eve of the 2009 season, many of the same hopes have become flat and cynical. Pessimissts predict a 4-12 season and an overhaul of the coaching staff. Bills optimists believe a 9-7 season, with a possible playoff berth, is realistic this year. But behind that optimism lies not a naive hope, but a serene preparedness. The optimistic fan comes up with a contingency plan for failure this year, and then stops worrying about what-ifs. With our contingency plan in the back of our minds, we should be free to be confident and interested in the season ahead. Certainty begets confidence, and confidence eliminates dread. FDR once said, "The only thing we have to fear is FEAR itself." This means that we can be hopeful as a fan base if we simply have an idea in our minds of what should happen if this year's goals of this year are not met.

Once we have settled on preparation for the worst, we can come back to the present more confident, relaxed Bills fans. After all, we will either win satisfyingly this year, or we will have a solid plan otherwise. With this in mind, let's ask ourselves those pessimisstic questions creatively. This FanPost uses a continuous train-of-thought pattern to do the beginning of the work for you. After the jump, we'll examine our fears, and take a look at the contingency plan, should things indeed get ugly this year.

1. Firstly, everything is speculation before it happens. Preparation is in, and results are pending. As this FanPost goes to press, it is fully possible for Buffalo to go 16-0 or 0-16. It won't happen realistically, but this notion goes to show that each game could, on its own, be a win or a loss. Therefore, unpredictable results makes worrying needless. The appropriate mindset is to plan for the worst, hope for the best, and wait and see before we pull any levers.

Q: So what exactly worries us about these Bills?

2. The roster is not the perceived problem. It is worth noting that virtually none of the vitriol is directed at the roster as a whole. Sure, some positions bear deserved scrutiny, quarterback being one of them. But as a unit, our roster is not perceived as needing an overhaul.

Q: If the roster isn't the main perceived issue, what else could be?

3. Our coaching staff is the perceived problem.

After all, which one of the following statements makes you hesitate with possible agreement?

"If we don’t make the playoffs Jauron/Fewell goes."

"If we don't make the playoffs Edwards/Lynch/(insert player[s]) goes."

The only man whose decision on these statements really matters is in his nineties. It is true that Ralph Wilson is an owner living on borrowed time. Wilson has shown indications of an aversion to change from his age when he chose to retain Jauron for a fourth year after three straight 7-9 campaigns. Three years ago, after firing Tom Donahoe, Wilson chose to retain questionably bungling coach Mike Mularkey while Marv Levy took the GM job (although Mularkey resigned of his own accord). Hence one could make the argument that Wilson is more hesitant to fire coaches and begin rebuilding at age 91. However, consider there is another side to the coin that might counteract the decision to retain Jauron for year 5. Impatience. At age 91, Wilson is perhaps reluctant to start over from scratch, but he is also likely more desperate to try things which will bring the Bills winning ways in his lifetime. Clearly the firing of Schonert wasn’t something RW was averse to. Could Schonert’s hot seat mean Jauron’s seat is hotter than some of us once thought? I believe so.

Q: Is Jauron really the man who should take the fall for poor coaching?

4. It's hard to imagine a scenario retaining Jauron if Buffalo miss the playoffs. The stumbling block which will ultimate doom Dick Jauron should the Bills fail for a tenth season will be the same question that Ronald Reagan used to doom Jimmy Carter in 1980. "Were you better off than you were four years ago?" Bringing back Jauron after no playoffs would mean convincing ourselves all over again into believing that the next year would finally be it. There is no avoiding the reality, and this reality begs the question: Why? Why weren't we that 'year away' from contending last year? No team in the NFL is mired so deep in muck, no injured squad so plagued, and no coaching staff so excused, that three years gone by can't launch a team into contention. Yet the Buffalo Bills of the Dick Jauron era have earned a reputation of being scrappy, mediocre, and having built the best house with the clay they have molded with. Unfortunately, the clay house has a ceiling, and Jauron's staff still can't break through it. Hence, Jauron puts up this year, or he is shut up.

5. If Jauron goes, the Bills will need a proven head coach from outside the organization.

The last time we brought in an outside face into our organization was Jauron four years ago. Since then, every coaching or managerial change we've done (as well as the installation of the Inner Circle itself right before Jauron) has been from in house. As it stands, Bills Nation is cleaning their guns, waiting for Jauron to fall so the infighting over the next coach can begin. If the Bills miss the playoffs, and our coaching position becomes vacant, hungry dogs with many perspectives will jump in to vouch for the coach that can get us back to the playoffs. Bobby April, Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, and others already have camps. There will be some peacemakers, but also much infighting in the ranks regarding Jauron's replacement.

As a Buffalo Bills fan, how do you rate the coaching over the last four years? The results say that we need more than a promising assistant or young riser. Sure, Bobby April's supporters have a real case. BA has shown the leadership, creativity, and motivational skills to produce some of the best special teams units the NFL has seen in recent memory.

Q: What exactly does April bring to the head coaching position?

6. The only answer to give without being biased is that April is a question mark; he may succeed and he may fail. More importantly, April is a question mark at a time when Buffalo desperately needs an exclamation point, or at least a period. We need something close to proof of success, and with Fewell unlikely to inherit serious consideration, there are none inside this organization. Deduce. This means hiring a winner outside; not because April won't end up being a good coach, but because we don't know if he will. Meanwhile, the S.S. Playoffs continues to sink.

Q: Isn't there nothing such as a certain bet for righting the ship? How should the Bills think?

7. We must first and foremost seek proof of winning. Nothing is for certain with coaches, but what indicator is better than past behavior? It is the unquestionable best indication of future behavior. When you want to win, you hire the coach with the most potential. But when you must win, you hire someone who has shown that they can win. That is a key difference which Ralph Wilson desperately should adhere to. Buffalo is mired a ten-year playoff drought, which is code for: the Bills must win ASAP. Therefore, as the Bills look to leadership, they need proof over possibility. They need a head coach who has earned his stripes in the NFL at least half-convincingly over someone who might be the right man for the job.

Q: Can a weaker team like Buffalo really hire a big name coach like Shanahan or Cowher? Should we even try?

8. Buffalo should not sell itself short for any candidate. It is possible that Buffalo might not end up able to attract a Cowher or a Shanahan. However, admitting defeat by not even trying to get them puts Buffalo in a worse position than ever, because admitting such is a self-fulfilling prophecy. It would show a belief that we didn't deserve the best coaches that the NFL has to offer. So should we fail to lure a coach of that caliber, it's too bad. It will be time to shrug it off, and take a look at other proven guys on the market looking for work. We deserve a good coach, and we can find one.

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Now that we've taken some time to look in the dark places of our little Bills hearts, to examine our fears and whines, and to face them head on, our mindset towards the 2009 season can be one of relaxed optimism, and excitement. We can see the upside of down, and respond cheerfully to any questions of failure. As fans this sets us free to cheer twice as loud, and frown half as strongly. Go Bills! It's jolly well time we beat New England! May this train of thought never have to be actually considered! -Dyl

SI ranks NFL's backup QBs 1-32

Dyl — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:26:43 -0000

SI ranks NFL's backup QBs 1-32

SI ranks the NFL's 32 backup quarterbacks. Ryan Fitzpatrick comes in 19th out of 32. That's about where I'd put him.

Time to Draw the Line

Dyl — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 21:09:06 -0000

I'm generally a Bills optimist. I have the team making the playoffs each year, albeit at a wild card position. So that got me thinking, why don't I feel the Bills can compete with New England in the East or with the other AFC teams for a Super Bowl berth? What reasons are there? New England seems like they own the division, but in the end they are just a football team like us, made up of players and position coaches just like us. I have to believe that it is not all poor playcalling and coaching which holds us back. So for the purposes of this FanPost, I'm throwing that out.

Now, if there are personnel weaknesses on our team (and there are), where are they? That's when the realization hit me about the weak points of our team. We are good at the fast, skill positions, on both sides of the ball. And our lines on both sides of the ball are suspect. and our question marks are the offensive line's ability to produce and our defensive line's ability to create pressure. On offense, running back is a stacked position. Nothing more need be said there. At wide receiver, despite our injuries at the position in camp, Buffalo maintains one of the deepest corps in the NFL. QB is a question mark, with a solid Edwards not entirely set in statuesque form yet in Buffalo, and Fitzpatrick as our potentially inconsistent backup. But so is the offensive line. We have Langston Walker at left tackle. He's capable but would be better at right tackle where he can face power rushers, not speed rushers. Our two rookies at guard are going to receive some lessons on the job this year from defenders, and even Kent Hull would have a tough time dealing with Kris Jenkins and Wilfork. Hang is decent, but no Hull.

On defense, our secondary seems to be the strength of the team. Donte Whitner's questionable playmaking ability being the only real chink in our armor. Our linebackers would be fine if we only had to play 2 on the field at a time (Poz and Kawika) -- and thankfully, any time the Bills go to a nickel, dime, or quarter defense, that's what we'll get. The trick is getting the defensive line to establish a talented, attacking presence.

Let me make this clear: I'm not advocating the replacement of a single Buffalo Bill. I'm also not calling the lines bad and the rest of the team good. My key argument here is that our front office seems to have ignored the basic football principle of building a team from the lines. It's true that busts and underachievers have been part of this. But the team's brass has to this point failed to plan for that contingency. It might be time for Russ Brandon to draw the line. Implement a line-based offseason strategy and focus on making our lines healthier.

I guess what I am trying to say is that efforts have been made. But should we desire to compete for the NFL title year in year out, we should look at the yearly contenders. The contending teams almost always have a Top 5-10 caliber offensive and defensive line. Therefore, we should not stop working until we, too, have such. Simple logic.

P.S. Thank you Bills FO for getting Wood and Levitre!

Poll: Roscoe, Hardy, or Johnson?

Dyl — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 23:40:45 -0000

Even if the Bills hadn't acquired T.O. this week, their wide receiver position was loaded with players who each have a difficult time climbing up the depth chart. With the addition of Owens, our WR position is further crowded with players who could be waiting to emerge alongside players who have hit their personal ceiling.

This post is to gauge opinion about the distribution of snaps. It's fairly clear that each of our three depth receivers have their unique talents; however, when does diversity of our receiver corps begin holding players back from their full potential?

Who do the Bills give more snaps? Roscoe, Hardy, or Johnson?

Exhibit A: Roscoe Parrish

Ht: 5'9"

Wt: 171 lbs.

Age: 26

Career Rec. to Games Ratio: 97 receptions over 55 games = 1.76

Average yards per catch: 10.8

TDs: 5 (plus 3 return TDs)

Parrish is a freakish athlete with speed, agility, and the ability to gain seperation in coverage. He has established himself as a star punt returner in the NFL, but has only been featured in Buffalo's offense sparingly.

Parrish's weaknesses are that he is on a team with several more than capable return men (McGee, McKelvin, F. Jackson). Parrish was also a second round draft choice in 2005 and the Bills' first overall selection that year, yet has failed in four seasons to unseat Josh Reed as the team's clear third option at wide receiver.

Exhibit B: James Hardy

Ht: 6'5"

Wt: 212

Age: 23

Career RPG ratio: 9 receptions over 14 games = 0.64 rpg

Avg. yards per catch: 9.7

TDs: 2

Like Roscoe, Hardy was drafted in the second round. UNlike Roscoe, he was taken to be a big, physical receiver that the Bills could use to exploit endzone matchups for touchdowns. And during his rookie season Hardy flashed such scoring ability when he was in the game.

Hardy's main weaknesses were his adjustment to the pro game and his difficulty learning route running. At Indiana the 6'5" receiver was able to be a weapon mainly from physical stature without learning complicated receiving patterns; Hardy is learning that the NFL is a different story.

Exhibit C: Steve Johnson

Ht: 6'2"

Wt: 202

Age: 22

Career Rec. to Games ratio: 10 receptions over 11 games = 0.91 rpg

Avg. yards per catch: 10.2

TDs: 2

Johnson was a steal in the seventh round last year and ended up showing why in the limited amount of time the Bills played him. He followed an impressive preseason in which he was the Bills' leading receiver with two touchdowns. Johnson played with and starred in the always tough SEC in college and scored game winning touchdowns in big games (Kentucky's games against Louisville and LSU).

Like Hardy, Johnson needs to work on his route running, particularly making sharp and defined cuts. At Kentucky, though productive, he benefited from the presence of other talented playmakers. To be a more productive receiver at the NFL level, Johnson also needs to work on utilizing his size in order to be more physical against press coverage.

What say you?

Poll

After Evans, Owens, and Reed, the Bills have three receivers competing for snaps. What would your approach be to playing and/or developing those players on the bottom half of our WR depth chart?

A. Roscoe's seperation ability 'seperates' him from the other two more situational players.

4 votes

B. Hardy is a beast in the making. More snaps would catch him up to the NFL level and help Buffalo the most.

7 votes

C. Steve Johnson was a steal and a potential star in the making. He needs those snaps to take his game to the next level.

29 votes

A/B. Let Johnson sit. The other two were drafted higher for a reason.

1 votes

B/C. Trade Roscoe and play both the young'ins to see what they're made of.

106 votes

A/C. Sit Hardy, play the other two. He flopped last year, and may never adjust to the pro game.

8 votes

D. Play all three equally, limiting them to situational duty.

30 votes

185 votes | Poll has closed