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May 14, 2009 May 30, 2012 84 4341
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Ridiculousness of Upside: Analyzing improvement by the 2008 NBA Draftees
Upside is defined in Merriam Webster as an “upward trend” or the “promise and potential” associated with a young star. When I search “upside” on the Canishoopus search engine, I receive 52 stories, 144 fan posts, 30 fan shots, and 2,222 comments containing the term. Clearly this a phrase that gets talked about on this site. But do all Rookies have upside? Do all rookies improve from their first year campaigns? Below the jump, I examine the 2008 draftees and what they tell us about upside.
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Teams are scared -- to death -- of taking Perry Jones III and Andre Drummond and they're frightened to pass on either player. Jones and Drummond have so many tools to be great NBA players, but early in their careers they still don't know how to put those tools together. "They get you fired either way," one GM said. "Don't take them and they blow up, everyone asks you what you were thinking. Do take them and they underachieve and everyone says you shouldn't have taken the risk. It's a no-win situation so ... you just take them. It's better to swing for the fences and miss than to bunt and miss the chance to hit a home run."
SSC: Timberwolves centric review of "Big 2’s and Big 3’s: Analyzing How a Team’s Best Players Complement Each Other" by Robert Ayer
Articles are beginning to trickle in from the Sloan Sports conference taking place this weekend in Boston at MIT. One of the more interesting articles I’ve read so far is "Big 2’s and Big 3’s: Analyzing How a Team’s Best Players Complement Each Other" by Robert Ayer. In the paper, Mr. Ayer looks specifically at roster construction and what combinations of Big 2’s and Big 3’s over perform or under perform their efficiency statistics in earning wins. Below the fold, I give a broad overview of the concepts of the article, and quick conclusion on what it says about the Wolves current roster.
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Beasley's talent is undeniable, as shown in Tuesday's 27-point outburst against the Clippers. But the Timberwolves are unwilling to invest in him long-term because of his "issues'', as well as their logjam at the forward spot. They are now trying to get whatever they can for Beasley before letting him walk as a free agent this summer.
The Lakers are interested, but conflicted. Minnesota offered the Lakers Beasley for the Lakers' best first-round pick, but the Lakers' unwillingness to pay the extra luxury tax money they would incur from Beasley's contract, have thus far turned down the deal. Beasley makes $6.2 million this season, but with the Lakers being a taxpayer, that equates to $12. million. While it's clear Beasley will make the Lakers better, will he make them good enough to justify that type of money. That's the question the Lakers are asking themselves. The Lakers own their own first-round pick as well as Dallas' first-round pick, though the Dallas pick is Top 20 protected.
3 months ago
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Inflatable Mascot All-Star Madness!
Derrick Williams, Pau Gasol And The Eternal Question: Now Or Never?
"Williams showed why he was the legit No. 2 pick, and showed why no one laughs at the rumors suggesting that the forward could be the centerpiece of a multi-team trade that results in Minnesota landing a player like Pau Gasol. At the same time, Williams showed Minnesota a glimpse of the promise that could make the Wolves a Thunderian juggernaut in a few years. If Ricky Rubio develops as a legit threat as a scorer and Kevin Love remains Kevin Love, the addition of a Williams that resemble in any way the version we saw on Tuesday could make this team a real challenger at the top levels of the league.
Therein lies the eternal question for rebuilding clubs: when is it time to say "enough" and add veterans?"
From Tom Ziller at SBNation
3 months ago
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Wolves should trade other draft pick
"It's slightly counterintuitive, particularly since the Timberwolves are a young, rebuilding team and have already dealt their 2012 first-rounder. The pick they have now is the lottery-protected pick acquired from the Utah Jazz. With no shot at a top pick, Minnesota knows it isn't about to acquire a franchise cornerstone. The question then becomes, how much solid young talent is too much solid young talent?
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Rookies represent great potential and great value to franchises, but only if they have the time to learn. Game time, mistakes and failure all provide great learning and development opportunities for a young player. When a rookie does not play much that first season, the chances that he'll become a good player diminish significantly.
Minnesota is poised to become a relevant playoff team soon and doesn't have available minutes to properly develop all its young players. Instead of adding another, it should get good value for the pick by trading it and addressing a need.
Certainly the roster might change a great deal by June, and if it does, perhaps a draft pick makes more sense. If not, it would not be surprising to see Minnesota target a player on another team's roster rather than one in the draft."
David Thorpe ESPN (Insider)
Rookie-Sophomore Game Altered to include mixed squads with a live draft
NBA All-Star 2012 will play host to the BBVA Rising Stars Challenge, which will introduce an exciting new format to a game that has historically featured NBA rookies facing off against sophomores. For the first time, rookies and sophomores will be mixed together on teams. ...
TNT Analysts Charles Barkley and Shaquille O’Neal will serve as the general managers of two opposing teams, each with nine man rosters, consisting of NBA rookies and sophomores drafted from a pool that was previously selected by the NBA’s assistant coaches. ...
The pool of players will be announced on Feb. 8, followed by the live BBVA Rising Stars Challenge Draft on Thursday evening, Feb. 16. Fellow TNT Analysts Mike Fratello and Steve Kerr will be part of the coaching staffs for the teams, with Fratello joining TEAM CHUCK and Kerr joining TEAM SHAQ. The Head Coaches for both teams will be the lead assistant coaches from the 2012 NBA All-Star Game coaching staffs.
Is Kevin Love the New Great White American Star?
Warning: Skip Bayless is prominent in the video
Rubio more than just a passing fancy
"According to Hoopdata.com, his Weighted Assists average of 11.4 per game, which takes into account the added value of an assist that leads to a three-point field goal, leads the NBA.
Though Rubio’s offensive flair has dominated the headlines, he’s also been a key part of the Timberwolves’ defensive improvement this season. Minnesota has jumped from 27th in the defensive efficiency rankings in 2010-11 to 14th this year thanks partly to the defensive prowess of the Spanish guard.
The Timberwolves are allowing 14 fewer points with Rubio on the court than when he’s off the court, the second-best defensive rating on the team among players with at least 100 minutes played, according to basketballvalue.com.
Rubio’s overall impact both on offense and defense while he’s on the court is highlighted by his team-leading plus-minus of +52. Luke Ridnour, the current starting point guard, has the second-worst plus-minus on the team (-48).
Rubio has also had a huge impact on rookie Derrick Williams’ performance. Williams is averaging more than twice as many points per 36 minutes with Rubio on the court (15.9) than with Ridnour (6.8), and is making over half of his field goals when paired with Rubio, compared to just one-third with Ridnour."
Hollinger: Top Rookie of the Year candidates
"2. Ricky Rubio, Minnesota
The only question about Rubio was his shooting, but this one uncertainty loomed over everything. Statistically, his shooting percentages in Europe and international play were so impossibly bad that it seemed inconceivable he would convert at an acceptable rate in the NBA.
Apparently, he got better. Either that, or these first 10 games have been a fluke of biblical proportions. Rubio has made 8 of his 17 3-point attempts and nearly half his 2s; as a result, a player who projected to shoot in the low 30s instead has one of the best TS% marks at his position. Rubio doesn't need to shoot like John Stockton to have value; he's so good in other areas that he just needs to be a non-awful shooter to make a major impact on the game.
So far he's doing it, and in every other respect he's something of a Spanish Jason Kidd -- Rubio averages 10.9 assists and 5.4 boards per 40 minutes, plays exemplary defense, and has the size and moxie to defend most 2s. Yes, the Wolves are only 3-7, but it's a vastly more competitive 3-7 than the misery of last season, and for the first time in eons this franchise seems headed in the right direction. Ricky is a major reason.
Because of the hype surrounding his entry and the spectacle of his passing skill, Rubio will have a major advantage in the Rookie of the Year voting. However, ultimately production is likely to win out. It's reasonable to expect Rubio's shooting numbers to regress a bit, even if they don't fall all the way back to the horrors of his past two seasons in Spain, and one player in particular should have the edge in both playing time and productivity."
John Hollinger at ESPN.com (Insider)
5 months ago
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Wilbon: Wrong about Rubio
"Magic Johnson, the man who probably knows more about the passing game than anybody in the history of basketball, saw Rubio go 0-for-5 shooting with three assists in an exhibition victory over the Lakers nearly two years ago, and still he came away certain Rubio would be at the very least a good NBA point guard. I told Magic the Timberwolves were nuts for wasting the No. 5 overall pick in 2009 on this kid who kept putting up zeros in international competition. Magic said, and I quote, "You're going to be wrong. Listen to me on this kid. He'll be better in the NBA than he is in Europe because our guys are more athletic and they run to the rim. In Europe, guys don't really run the break; they fan out around the 3-point line, they pump-fake, they look to score in other ways. Our guys are going to see a dude who can pass it like Rubio and run like hell to the rim. Trust me."
I didn't. I was a fool."
Michael Wilbon at ESPN.com
5 months ago
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Hip musician names a song after Ricky Rubio
Rubio-mania continues...
Is Kevin Love worth a max deal?
"Sometimes, it's important to focus on what a player can do, not what he can't. The full range of skills that Love offers is unique and, yes, it's a championship-level package. He may not be quite at the level of a James or Rose, but he's on the tier a half-step below it. Like Garnett, perhaps the best part of Love's game is his remarkable consistency. As evidenced by last season's streak of 53 straight double-doubles, Love puts up numbers night after night after night.
There is no question he is deserving of a max contract, and probably little question that the Timberwolves will make such an offer. The only thing we don't know is whether Love will sign it."
Bradley Doolittle - Basketball Prospectus (ESPN Insider)
iPitch: Apple Prepares Bid For EPL TV Rights
Using its platform of Apple TV, a small box costing less than $100 that allows users to stream internet content on their television screens, the company already showcases properties from Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association. But this is different.
By going for full English television rights to the EPL, one of the most lucrative sports products in the world, Apple could be signaling the start of an assault on cable's turf.
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Consumers and the technology sector has responded to the Apple news with heavy interest, and there is a sense that this move, if successful, could forever change the way that live sports is consumed. Any successful rights deal involving [live sports] would be likely to allow for subscribers to watch live games on not only Apple TV, but iPads and iPhones.
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"If such a product were to come out it could change the whole playing field," Hesseldahl says. "No one knows for sure what they are planning, but if you had an actual television set with the ability to web-stream embedded in it, and users were still able to access their traditional cable or satellite functions, it could be huge.
"That is why Apple has to be taken seriously in any market. They have the money and the technological smarts to have a vision of how we will view things in the future. In many ways, they hold all the cards."
That doesn't bode well for ESPN, which charges cable subscribers whether they watch the network or not. Any reliable way to bypass cable is a potential threat to ESPN's bottom line, if not its incredible reach.
5 months ago
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Source confirms Memphis, Philly and NO agreed in principle to send Marreese Speights to Griz, Xavier Henry to NO & 2 future 2nds to 76ers
Rubio big again in Spain
"In the States, he doesn’t feel the pressure he felt in Spain. He feels free and he’s playing well. He seems to have regained lost confidence. He is in his natural habitat, as a showtime player.
In just a week, his image has recovered.
Ricky is Ricky again, and the buzz is being felt as much in Spain as it is in Minnesota and elsewhere around the NBA."
Noelia Roman Lamas at Sheridan Hoops
Kevin Love Exceeding Even Highest Expectations
"Once the core around Love solidifies, we'll have a better view of how the basketball world sees him: a solid All-Star caliber big man, or one of the very best players in the NBA. Based on box scores, he should have been in the MVP conversation -- not the pole position or finalist club, but conversation -- last season. He's improved, and the Wolves will be better, and so he will like belong in the conversation again. Will he get there? Will we someday question the belief that Rose is the 2008 Draft's best player? As of now, it sure looks like it."
From Tom Ziller at SBNation
"It’s basketball," Popovich said. "We all run pick and roll. John (Stockton) and Karl (Malone) ran pick and roll the same way for a jillion years. It’s pretty simple. It depends on who’s doing it and (Rubio) is very good at it, so there’s no sense making something complicated if somebody’s great at doing something simple."
Pop’s ultimate compliment: Rubio’s entry into NBA just like Ginobili’s
Mike Monroe - Spurs Nation
5 months ago
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It's fair to question Rubio's talent for scoring; I, too, remain concerned that he's lost some of his ability (and confidence) to make shots and get buckets. But there is no way to question his ability to move the ball, push the pace and make astounding assists. Rubio is the definition of a point guard, as he can make people better by getting them the ball in position to make the easiest basket possible.
Of all the players I watched on tape this week, I enjoyed watching him the most. And we should consider this: In the new NBA, where players feel emboldened more than ever to pick their team without considering only salary, Rubio will be a magnet for free agents.
NBA Rookie Watch by David Thorpe ESPN (Insider)
(Rubio is #6 in his rookie rankings after not being ranked pre-season, Derrick Williams is #9)
Top 5 Breakout Teams
ESPN's (Insider) Chris Palmer predicts the Minnesota Timberwolves as his 5th breakout team. His brash prediction of breakout success puts the Wolves record at 16-50, which, you guessed it, is the exact same record the Wolves had last season after 66 games. Some Breakout season.
Where does the 4 letter find these brilliant people?
"We've talked about people staying within their strengths. If you keep making the same mistakes over and over, well, you probably shouldn't be doing that."
Chuck Hayes Fails Physical, Contract Voided
Shocker in Sacto: Kings GM Geoff Petrie releases statement saying contract of F Chuck Hayes has been voided after he failed the physical.
The Five Most Promising Re-Builds
From Tom Haberstroh at ESPN.com (Insider)
1. Wizards
Loves John Wall and the cap space and thinks they will contend for the playoffs as soon as this season.
2. Hornets
Loves Eric Gordon and two top 10 picks in a loaded draft.
3. Raptors
Loves Jonas Valanciunas and a high lottery pick in 2012.
4. Kings
Likes Evans, Cousins, Thornton and cap space while acknowledging Evans and Cousins are wild cards.
5. Jazz
No real firm opinions except he thinks Jefferson, Milsap and Harris will all be shipped out for more youth.
Wolves, Bobcats, Cavs and Pistons considered but didn't make the cut.
Adelman's Dog House (WITH POLL!)
Every competent coach seems to have one. A place to punish those who don't listen. A place to make an example out of a malcontent. A place to relegate someone management thinks can play, but the coach doesn't. With the addition of Ricky Rubio, JJ Barea, Derrick Williams, a full season of Anthony Randolph, and roster full of young guys seeking minutes, competition for minutes should be fierce.
Just who will those players be that lose their minutes? Each player is given a threshold relative to last year's minutes per game. This makes it easier to say Beasley playing 20 minutes per game is a bigger slight than Darko only playing 15 minutes.
Hurt and not listed: Martell Webster, Brad Miller
Rookies and new additions not listed: Derrick Williams, Ricky Rubio, Malcolm Lee
Franchise Players not listed: Kevin Love
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Paul George Grew 2 Inches during the Offseason...now 6'10"
Would have been nice if we would have drafted him instead of Wes or traded Jonny for #10 and selected him. What could have been...
Stern kills Lakers’ deal for Paul
"NBA commissioner David Stern has killed the New Orleans Hornets’ trade of Chris Paul after several owners complained about the league-owned team dealing the All-Star point guard to the Los Angeles Lakers, league sources told Yahoo! Sports.
Some owners pushed Stern to demand the trade be nullified, and the Hornets be made to keep Paul on the roster for the foreseeable future, sources said. A chorus of owners were irate with the belief that the five-month lockout had happened largely to stop big-market teams from leveraging small-market teams for star players pending free agency."
Link to article by Adrian Wojnarowski at Yahoo Sports
The Wolves have mild interest in Shane Battier, who even at 33 would be an upgrade defensively. President of basketball operations David Kahn says not to expect much activity from them. However, a source with close to the team said it will deal Michael Beasley, who was arrested for marijuana possession this summer. Despite his character questions, he's talented enough to bring a steady veteran in a trade. The expected development of Williams makes Beasley even more expendable.
The Donald's Magic Moment
I thought this was a great read on how the next two weeks is the Clippers best chance to turn assets in to transformational players. A few Wolves related nuggets are peppered into the article regarding (1) the Clippers using our draft pick as an asset and (2) Kevin Love being the closest to a can’t-miss franchise-changer on both ends of the court being avaiable in the next 5 years after Howard, Paul, and Williams find new homes.
The research team pored over a ton of data, ran countless simulations and looked at how many points certain combinations of skills created.
Some of the conclusions are obvious to the basketball fan: Offensive ball-handling and offensive scoring have positive synergies. Likewise, offensive ball-handling has a positive synergy with offensive rebounding because, as the paper explains, "[O]ffensive ballhandling helps a team convert possessions into shot attempts, and offensive rebounding increases the number of possessions over which the ballhandler can protect the ball." In other words, give Chris Paul teammates who can score and others who can generate more possessions on the offensive glass, and his team will thrive.
But offensive ball-handling has a negative synergy with itself. It's not that having a couple of guys who can capablly handle the ball is a bad thing, but your team simply won't be able to extract the full value of those skills because there's only one basketball on the court. If Ball-handling stud A has possession of the ball, by definition Ball-handling stud B doesn't -- and that minimizes his best skill.
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