Whatever mess renewal of the CBA turns out to be, it's behind JR as he surveys the landscape of the off-season prior to the 2012-2013 season.

No present contracts extend past that summer, except for Cam's and Eric's, along with a handful of prospects on the entry-level deals.

So, as JR begins to assemble the D-corps for what should also be a good season for the forwards, here's what he has with which to work, at least within the ranks of RFA's:

RFA left shots: 

Brian Dumoulin - drafted 2009 (2nd round, 51st overall) - 6'4", 210 lbs

Derek Joslin - drafted 2005 (5th round, 149th overall) - 6'1", 210 lbs

RFA right shots:

Jamie McBain - drafted 2006 (3rd round, 63rd overall) - 6'2", 200 lbs

Bobby Sanguinetti - drafted 2006 (1st round, 21st overall) - 6'3", 190 lbs

Justin Faulk - drafted 2010 (2nd round, 37th overall) - 5'11", 200 lbs

Danny Biega - drafted 2010 (3rd, round, 67th overall) - 6'0" 200 lbs

UFA's:

The UFA's that are currently in the system all are left shots.

JR may (or may not) have under an extended UFA contract, left-shot Joni Pitkanen (6'3", 210 lbs).

Plus, a trading deadline decision may be made on left-shot Tim Gleason (6'0", 217 lbs) in '11-'12 that may or may not result in his contract being extended or him being re-signed that summer.

Finally, if he's still around that summer, Jay Harrison (6'4", 211lbs) is also a left shot.

Still not a #1 D-man anywhere in sight amongst that bunch, at least in my opinion.  But, a strong candidate field upon which to base a defense-by-committee approach, and perhaps some excess assets for which to use as tradebait for something even better.

The vast majority of the Carolina Hurricanes (other than undrafted signees like LaRose and Samson) begin their NHL pro careers as draft picks. They're the precious tokens given each year (if not traded away by the org's GM, that is) for them to use to place their bets on the collection of mostly 18-year-old talent that's there to be divided amongst the 30 teams.

Some picks, of course, turn out to be total busts.  They just never make it in the NHL at all.  It's to be expected in the later rounds, where the odds are low for them to push their way past the talent in front of them.  But it sometimes happens at the highest levels, and Carolina has certainly had their share of busts, particularly before 2002, as discussed in an earlier August 1st FanPost I authored, entitled "Drafting for Wealth, Health, and Control".

The other extreme is a draft pick that not only turns into a NHL player, but plays for the org that drafted them their entire NHL career.  That can be as long as say Steve Yzerman's 22-year NHL career with the Red Wings.  Maybe Staal, or even Ward, will be that type of player for us, even if not for so many seasons.

And, in between are draft picks that turn into NHL players but only for days, weeks, months, or even years, but flame out and are either dropped off NHL payrolls or traded away.  

But the shrewd GM wants to identify these casualties early and pick the latter trade option as quickly as possible, so as to keep the flame that is that draft pick alive, ideally as a serviceable NHL asset, but as a potential NHL prospect or the pure form of a future draft pick, if nothing else. 

As an example, follow the bouncing ball that began as a second-round draft pick that JR made in 2003, the year we selected Eric Staal 2nd overall.  We had the 31st overall pick that season (finished dead last, but lost the lottery, so slid back to #2 in the first round) and selected Danny Richmond (D).

Danny is a scrappy D-man that more than made up for lack of size with "spunk", but when the opportunity came along to make a straight-up trade with Chicago in January 2006 for Anton Babchuk, with a side exchange of 4th round draft picks to make the values work out (their way).

Suddenly, JR had upgraded his 2003 2nd rounder to a 21st overall 2002 D-man that was a bit of a project (abandoned by Chicago) but right up JR's reclamation project alley.  Plus, he provided depth as JR was loading up for our Cup run and it was obvious from his 10 games so far that season that Danny was not a serviceable piece of that puzzle.

Anton didn't play in the playoffs, but the team lobbied to have his name added to the Cup and he even shared a day with it in Kiev, Ukraine with teammate Oleg Tverdovsky.  So...a little context as to why JR was so miffed when Anton balked on him later.  But, I digress. :-)

Danny spun off for partial NHL seasons, bouncing up and down from Norfolk to Chicago and is currently with the Toronto Marlies.  And JR funneled Anton's return from the KHL into a partial season for us (evaluation and scouting purposes) before converting his original 2003 second-rounder D-man pick into defenseman Ian White.  Admittedly, the valuation is a bit fuzzy here, since it was a four-player trade:  Anton Babchuk/Tom Kostopoulos <-> Ian White/Brett Sutter.  But the D variable is what we're tracking, with the forward variable being it's own basic equivalency of "serviceable now" for "futures" trade that GM's routinely perform.

You know the rest, as White now sleeps with the Sharks, and JR's original 2003 second rounder now lives and breathes amongst us in the form of Derek Joslin, a 2005 fifth-round D-man that appears to be a NHL serviceable asset.  Yes, I know he was part of a separate "future considerations" deal, but I believe it was an "earnest money" side transaction between the GM's for the White deal to be reserved for them while valuations were determined, assuming that there were probably other interested parties.

Plus, note that JR also holds the Shark's second-round draft pick in 2012...which will be a full nine years later from the original 2003 draft pick that began life as current Toronto Marlie defenseman, Danny Richmond, and spun off current 23-year-old Canes defenseman Derek Joslin on its way to potentially yet another a new life as a NHL'er beginning in 2012.

Way to keep that wave rolling, JR.  :-)

Great feel good story about JR and entourage being in Charlotte last night.  Wesley and Barasso were both mentioned in the TV coverage as accompanying him on the trip, and perhaps there were others.

Certainly was a big day in the history of the franchise down there with the TWC telecast of the game.  And, the Canes did have the day off the ice, so might as well tool down Interstate and take in a game.

But, the more I thought about things, I decided that there was (as usual) more going on than meets the eye.

As always, JR's working when he's watching games.  However, there was a convergence occurring last night that was more than coincidental, in my opinion.

Trading season is officially open and JR's judging the horseflesh himself, for one thing.  Not only are there prospects there that are destined for the Canes on some kind of time line, from "immediate" (Dalpe) to "maybe sometime" (Samson?).

Beyond that, there are decisions to be made on who will not make the Canes, due to being thrown in as the "extra" on some much larger trade. Excess assets have value, too.  If we can't use them at the NHL level, someone else may.  A painful loss for the fans of that team, but sometimes a golden opportunity for that prospect that leaves a crowded barn and heads for greener pastures where the numbers game will perhaps work more in their favor, since the receiving team is asking for prospects in the deal.

But, then I really became aware of what might be transpiring.  The opponent on the night of JR's visit was the Manchester Monarchs...affiliated with the Los Angeles Kings.

Suddenly I realized who was also on the ice, besides JR's own draftees and acquisitions.  Skating for the Monarchs last night was the fabled Colten Teubert, subject of many a trade rumor involving the Canes and the Kings.  The player that was selected 13th overall in 2008, just ahead of Boychuk at 14th overall.

Hmmmmm.

Okay, I'm calling it.  Big trade brewing with the Kings.  You guys can fill in the details of the deal below.  :-)

Abramsdoug succinctly framed what could be an interesting discussion to have in the dog days of August when he summed up a discussion that had evolved within the Canes prospects thread about the philosophical role of the fourth line:

The Fourth Line - Which Philosophy Will Jim Rutherford and Jason Karmanos and Coaches Choose?

One of the key issues Jim Rutherford, Jason Karmanos, and the coaching staff have to resolve is what role do they want the fourth line to serve? Answering that question will dictate which players have to be kept in Charlotte (until injuries create spots in the top nine) and which players will be in the Hurricanes long-term plans.

   Elsker advocates a fourth line with a specific role and that role could be well-served in coming years by Samson/Dodge/Dwyer. Those players, however, in the totality of hockey skills would not be ranked above Boychuk, Bowman, Tlusty, Dalpe, Osala, Terry, Jared Staal, and perhaps Shugg as he gets more age and experience. If the Hurricanes organization decides to run a fourth line as an energy line, they probably will go with players like Samson, Dodge, and Dwyer. If on the other hand, the Hurricanes organization elects to go with its best 12 forwards, it will be difficult for all three – Samson, Dodge, and Dwyer to crack the line up. Interesting decisions are on the way.

by abramsdoug on Aug 14, 2010 10:23 AM EDT

This was in response to a comment I had just made regarding the possibility of seeing Nick Dodge centering Patrick Dwyer and Jerome Samson as a future fourth line:

If there’s some possibility of Dodge centering Dwyer and Samson on a future fourth line for us…

Well, now we’re getting somewhere!

I’ve had Dodge penciled in for our fourth line center ever since he came out of Clarkson. Love the whole character and talent package.

If Dwyer could be moved to wing, we’d be getting back to the days when, yes, Chad LaRose was making teams miserable with the two Adams Family boys.

Now that was a fourth line.

 

Here we are now...entertain us.

by Elsker on Aug 13, 2010 2:31 PM EDT

I'll save my contributions to the discussion for comments below, but it's certainly an interesting topic that has many facets for consideration. 

So, let's discuss among ourselves.  What do you have to say about fourth lines for the Canes...past, present, and future?

One of my "go to" hockey links, sometimes open for days at a time on a browser tab, is the Carolina Hurricanes Draft History from The Internet Hockey Database, a great resource for those of you who may not yet have discovered it.

Not only is a Canes draft history handy for making sure I'm getting details correct, but let's step back and take a look at it from an historical perspective while we have it open.  For we've not always had the draft competency we seem to be exhibiting now.

In fact, to review:

1997:  First rounder Nick Tselios skates only 2 games total in the NHL.  Shane Willis (4th round) has a third-line career that was really never the same after being leveled by an infamous Scott Stevens hit.  Brad Defauw skates nine games in a lost season ('03-'04).  Pretty much a lost draft year.

1998:  Yet another first round bust, Jeff Hereema (Staal's cousin from Thunder Bay) plays 4 games total in the NHL.  But, JR strikes gold in the later rounds, gleaning Erik Cole (3rd round), Josef Vasicek (4th round), Tommy Westlund (5th round), and Jaroslav Svoboda (8th round).  Role players all, but at least we now had some under contracts we could control for a while.(more on this below).

1999:  Another bleak draft year, with the only "success" being first-rounder David Tanabe, with many feeling there was shared negligence in the org's handling of this prospect, rushing him into battles that were over his head, versus flaws revealed within the prospect hmself.  JR salvaged something out of this pick by bundling it with our first-round bust from 2001, Igor Knyazev, and plucking Danny Markov from Phoenix.  JR then turned around, after entertaining us for a few months with instant fan favorite Danny's antics, by acquiring Plymouth legacy Justin Williams with all his contributions to the Cup-winning team, who is now embodied in the second re-incarnation of Erik Cole. Only other draft pick of notice is Damian Surma (6th round), who broke his arm during his first NHL goal celebration in one of only 2 NHL games played.

2000:  Pretty much a bust year at the top, with no first round pick (ill-fated Sandis Ozolinch experiment), and Plymouth Whaler second-rounder Tomas Kurka managing only 17 NHL games.  Ryan Bayda has a successful Mr. Utility career from the third round and the org trades up in the fourth round to take 25-year-old Niclas Wallin from the Swedish Elite league.

2001:  Huge bust year.  Swing and a miss on Russian first-rounder Igor Knyazev (15th overall).  Although used along with Tanabe in the 2003 Markov trade, he logged no NHL games at all.  Second-rounder Mike Zigomanis churns out an up-and-down NHL/AHL career as a good utility player...mostly AHL for us.

2002:  Finally some first-round success, as Cam Ward (25th overall) is secured.  But, that's all we got as no other pick made the grade (from what few we had that weren't traded away beefing up for the 2002 Cup run).

2003:  Finishing dead last, losing the lottery, and picking second overall, we scored the current franchise anchor, Eric Staal.  But other than Danny Richmond in the second, traded to Chicago for Anton Babchuk (21st overall in 2001), that was all the 2004 draft gleaned.

2004:  Finally a decent draft year as JR trades up in front of the RBC host crowd to select Andrew Ladd fourth overall.  However, Ladd was later traded at the deadline during the '07-'08 season for Tuomo Ruutu (9th overall in 2001...which note was a huge bust year for us).  However, this year was the first of a few recent deep drafts for us as it also brought Justin Peters (2nd round), Casey Borer (3rd round), and Brett Carson (4th round).  Home arena advantage, I guess.  :-D

2005:  After relative success in 2004, bleakness returned in 2005 as first rounder (3rd overall), Jack Johnson...well, you know that story well.  And the draft pick moves among us today in the form of Tim Gleason, a 2001 first round (23rd overall) pick himself and $2.5M for the player of your choice in salary (Oleg Tverdovsky).  But, that was it for 2005

2006:  Doug Weight's services during the successful Cup run cost us our first rounder, but Jamie McBain (2nd round) appears to be the real deal.  However, other than a questionable Harrison Reed (3rd round) and a game Nick Dodge (6th round), that's it for 2006.

2007:  Brandon Sutter (11th overall) already evident as a for real NHL'er, so good start to this draft.  No second-rounder as it went as part of the Mark Recchi 2006 deadline acquisition.  Drayson Bowman (3rd round) sure looks promising, but already the crystal ball begins to grow hazy.

2008:  Back-to-back Zac/Zach's, Zach Boychuk (14th overall) and Zac Dalpe (2nd round) both look like they could make it in the NHL, probably with us (see Ladd example for alternative career paths).  And, JR has since acquired the second-rounder he woke up thinking he would pick, Jared Staal.  Insufficient data points on Michal Jordan (4th round) and Mike Murphy (6th round) to pass judgement at this time, but they're worthy of listing and not on the scrap pile yet.  Pretty good draft.

2009:  Still under review, but it starts off with a real puzzler, Philippe Paradis (27th overall), who already has been changed out for Jiri Tlusty (13th overall in 2006, the year we had no first-rounder).  Brian Dumoulin (2nd round) is growing even taller and heavier at Boston College, winning individual accolades and team championships left and right, and seems promising.  Lindstrom (3rd round), Kennedy (5th round), and Kivisto (7th round) are all out there somewhere.

2010:  Now, compare this year, fresh as it is, to those above, where JR walks away from the table after two days of hard work with three (3) first-round assets in the form of Jeff Skinner (7th overall in 2010), Riley Nash (21st overall in 2007), and Bobby Sanguinetti (21st overall in 2006).  Regardless as to how things work out with Faulk (2nd), Alt (2nd), Biega (3rd), Levi (3rd), Shugg (4th), Stahl (6th), and Andersen (7th), that's a pretty good draft year, already.

So, the point of all of this is to show just how few NHL assets the org has walked away with in past draft years, compared with our apparent increasing odds of success in more recent years.

And, the result of all those poor draft years in which no, or few, NHL assets emerged, was what we saw on the ice at the beginning of last season.  Not nearly enough kids in sight that were NHL-ready (an important qualifier) due to the stretch of lean draft years.  Everyone that could make it had already been drug aboard, whether ready or not (the lockout giving Staal his all-important AHL year his sophomore pro season and allowing Cam Ward to dominate and grow even more confident).

Nearly the oldest team in the league and fairly expensive for talent level held, due to incremental raises over the years.  When there's no new talent bubbling up though, this is what you do.  You hold onto what you have a season or two too long or pick up free agents from the bargain bin.

But, thanks to successful draft years, that's about to all change.  New blood and, this is important, under very affordable contracts for the next few seasons, anyway.  Plenty of time to look them all over, make the hard choices that need to be made, and (here's the important part), hopefully have more talent coming up to replace those that we can no longer afford...or believe we may be holding even better in the form of a prospect.

Too many good players?  Not a problem, as they are like liquid gold.  They can be bundled for major pieces, if we think we're ready to go in a couple of seasons.  Or, converted back into liquid currency as future draft picks, hopefully higher on the rung than where you will be picking, but welcome as additional swings at the plate, nonetheless.

So, here's to future and continued draft success.  It makes the org rich in both talent and cash, the roster stays healthier with younger bodies and eager replacements, and contracts stay under our control via extensions or trades, instead of having to acquire what we can afford on the UFA market.

I DVR Sports Night, TWC's all-news channel's nightly sports show, every night, mostly cruising for Canes news and features.  During the season, there is something every night with game nights warranting two segments and interviews if a home game.

On Monday night, in addition to the obligatory All-Star logo announcement coverage, they had a second segment that was a video clip of JR speaking to them in an exclusive interview.  Looked like it was shot in his office and it was short, but what he said I thought was significant.

I can't find a clip of it anywhere, but here is a transcript of what was said:

News Anchor:  Back to the ice now for a bit with the Carolina Hurricanes, who are getting ready for the start of camp in mid-September.  It’s a team in transition, the like of Rod Brind’Amour and Ray Whitney gone.  But, General Manager Jim Rutherford has a laundry list of other reasons to keep this foundation intact.


JR:  Well, we really don’t have anything else to do now.  We’re finished a lot earlier than we usually are.  We have our guys in place. 

Based on where we’re at in this collective bargaining agreement, and where teams are positioned…they’ve put themselves up against the cap or over the cap…we really don’t know what might come along.  So, we’re going to be open to listening to different things, as to whether it’s a trade where we can pick up a player to improve our team, or what it might be. 

But, I am going to be very careful with those three or four spots that are kind of open now, up front on the forwards.  Because we’ve taken the time to develop young players.  We’ve told them that they’re going to have a good opportunity to be on this team.  And if I go out now and sign one or two free agents, even if it’s at a bargain price, because of where we’re at in free agency, I don’t think it’s fair to the players that we’re developing.

And we really believe in these young players.  But, I will caution people that say we haven’t seen them play 82 games.  Sometimes guys can come right in, and jump in, and can play those 82 games in a tough schedule.  And sometimes it takes them a year or so where they may only play half the games and the other half in the minors to get the proper development, and then they’re ready the following year.

Although there's been little speculation here, I have seen some fretting on other fanboards by seasoned veterans of JR's team building approach that he just won't be able to resist the bargain bin atmosphere of late August and early September when veterans are wandering the streets looking for work.  That surely he'd sign some "toughness" or a face-off specialist, thereby denying one of our prospects a forward slot.

Well, I never worried about such a thing, but the fact that he says this out loud is, in usual JR "I'm talking to you through the press" speak, a direct reassurance to those of you out there that have seen him do this in the past.  It's not happening this time...or so he says.  :-D

But, there's more in this short little missive.  Note the musing about trades and teams in cap trouble.  He's certainly not ruling that option to "improve our team" out.

Finally, no surprise, but a firm commitment to work the roads (and rails?) between Charlotte and Raleigh well, moving talent back and forth as necessary "for their development".

This should be fun.

2010-2011 is going to be a fun season to be a STH at the RBC Center.  Of course, it's always fun to win (in fact, it's now got to where I now associate hearing "Mad Scientist" anywhere with losing).  But, Caniac Nation will also always, always applaud genuine effort, even in a loss.

I cannot imagine we're not going to see effort, across the board, this season. Every player, to a person, can find one or more reasons to hustle a bit more than we have seen in some past seasons.

The most obvious pressure is the lower rungs of the forwards and defensemen, where a literal king-of-the mountain battle will be occurring throughout the season as a wealth of talent competes for limited roles on the big stage.  Charlotte, fasten your seatbelts, because you're in for a nitro-induced upgrade in your hockey experience.

But, there's incentives at the top and among the vets, as well.  For one thing, there's all those kids, for those that haven't been anointed as legacies. 

Plus, in the forward ranks, Cole, Samsonov, Jokinen, LaRose, and Dwyer are all in UFA contract years.  Add Sutter and Tlusty in RFA contract years and more than half our forwards have economic incentives, if nothing else. 

On the defensive side, Pitkanen, Babchuk, and Harrision are in UFA contract years, with Carson establishing his RFA value for the following season(s).  So, economic incentives there, as well, making a fully half the team working on a contract year for themselves.

Nonetheless, the other half of the team has plenty of incentives, as well.  Several are coming off an injury-hampered season, surrounded by energy after a long summer, and have things to prove.  Round up the usual suspects, and without dwelling on details, these could include more names than we know, but Staal, Ruutu, LaRose, Cole, Corvo, and Ward come to mind.

Staal now has not only the "C", but the room, as well.  Brind'Amour's not even in sight.  The only players older than him are now his contemporaries in terms of team eras.  The '02 warriors are gone.  Heck, even most of the '06 core is gone. 

This is indeed the New Canes.  And, as I have said from the day we drafted him, I did not expect Staal to hit his stride until at least 25 or 26 years of age.  He'll be 26 this October.  It's go time, Eric.  Seize the times.

But, I digress. My point is that I am optimistic that this will be a fun team to watch from an energy level.  That's certainly not always been the case.

In  fact, this may well be the year that it becomes possible for the org to dial up the culture a bit on what it means to be a player for the Canes.  A tweak to our identity to include a bit more hustle, instead of maximizing the "cool factor" would be appreciated by the fans and become an infectious team energizer that can easily translate all the way through to the scoreboard.

Certainly we've never had so many homegrown players in the system that are bubbling up to the NHL level.  And when they've all gone through the School of Jake or are under the tutelage of members of the brain trust, it is indeed possible to get an identity and culture installed within an org so strongly that trades are easily assimilated because the "rules" are so transparent.

We do "acquire character", as JR always says.  These are all good men.  In fact, it's a good bubble we have here from ownership, facilities, org, players, and fans.  Perfect storm.

Here's to a good season, regardless of how the win/loss record shakes out.  I know, if nothing else, I'll be thoroughly entertained as the play unfolds beneath my feet.  Go Canes!

Just wanted a place to discuss the sudden (at least sudden for me) emergence of Riley Nash as a potential answer for the "so who's centering the third line?" question.

There are certainly implications for the other candidates, if he truly is an option for that particular role, in that the roster is already looking a bit crowded for the forwards. 

We have 10 forwards signed to one-way contracts right now:  Staal, Ruutu, Cole, Samsonov, Jokinen, LaRose, Sutter, Kostopoulos, Tlusty, and Dwyer.

So, assuming that we're going to carry 13 forwards on the roster to meet our 22-player requirement (along with 7 defensemen and 2 goalies), then there are three slots open for our two-way contracts to share.

Potential candidates for those three forward slots include:  Boychuk, Bowman, Samson, Dalpe, Osala, Sanguinetti, and now potentially Riley.  That's 7 bodies competing for 3 slots, one of which might be a healthy scratch if no one's injured or we're not sitting a one-way contract (but, that's a separate discussion).

So, Riley's sudden emergence as an option potentially crowds those shared slots down to just two for 6 bodies that want some time in the NHL.

And, as a further item of discussion, how do you think those that worked their way up from the CHL to the AHL and are now reaching for the NHL feel about someone dropping in from the college ranks to potentially take a NHL slot with no AHL time whatsoever?

Don't get me wrong, it happens, especially with college-route defensemen, but even then they usually cut their pro teeth in the AHL before jumping to the NHL.

Is Nash trying to skip riding the bus entirely and stay in school until a NHL slot is almost guaranteed?  Or, is he willing to "pay some dues" in the AHL, while we audition some of the two-way contracts for the slot he covets?

Must be some interesting discussions going on among management...and perhaps among the players.

Of course, it's not up to us, and we certainly have incomplete data at this point.

So, this is not a poll, just a reasonable discussion of the pros and cons of either slotting Skinner into the lineup and developing his game further at the NHL level, or sending him back to his junior team (after a 10-game tryout?) for further baking before we take him out of the major juniors oven.

I really have no position at this point in time, but do appreciate the differences in the path chosen.

So, after the jump, let's take a look at some preliminary variables.

Continue reading this post »

Brian LeBlanc (@puckdrops) posted an entry in his blog today discussing the faceoff situation:

What went wrong in the circle this year?

Although his statistical analysis is perhaps a bit broad brush in nature, potentially subject to more variables than the ones being measured, his point is valid and the focus on the faceoff circle is worth some discussion.

No question the loss of first Francis, then Cullen (who used to routinely match Brindy's more publicized stats), and now Brind'Amour (declining playing minutes, at a minimum) have dented our team's faceoff prowess.

Time for a new generation to arise under Ron's & Rod's watchful eyes?  As Brian points out, Mr. Staal has the most room to improve, although I'm willing to cut him some slack due to undisclosed injuries this season.

Is this something to worry about or is it something that will work itself out with a healthy Staal and a blooming Sutter?  Is this issue connected to the lingering doubt in the org's mind as to what to do about Brind'Amour next season?

Discuss among yourselves.

We've made comparisons before between this particular season and the ill-fated '02-'03 season that followed the 2002 Cup run.

There are certainly common elements between the two seasons:
- Bad season following a very good season
- Injuries galore from the very beginning of the season (including Weekes passing out at a STH-only training camp practice)
- many, many minor league call-ups (mostly injury replacements in '02-'03)
- first NHL goals by rookies (five in '02-'03, with so many occuring in their first NHL game that it became somewhat of a tradition)
- good draft pick (finished dead last with a miserable 61 points, lost the lottery, and selected Eric Staal 2nd overall after Fleury went 1st)

But, there are differences, too:
- quality of the call-ups are worlds apart (Kurka/Surma/DeFauw, for those from that era, versus Boychuk/Carlson/McBain)
- far less trading activity occurred that season (mostly because there was little that was healthy of value to trade)

Plus, the ending of that season was like a slow motion train wreck versus the OT thrillers and mini-win streaks we are enjoying this season.

Specifically, the last home win in '02-'03 was seen on March 12th and the last away win occured two days later.  Nine losses and two ties (pre-shootout) later, the season mercifully ended.

But the single biggest difference between the two seasons is the promise that is felt in this one.  '02-'03 was followed by an equally disappointing '03-'04 season, where we missed the playoffs with 76 points (drafting Andrew Ladd -> Tuomo Ruutu).

There was no hint of the incredible 112-point season that we would experience post-lockout ('04-'05 being another bummer of a "season", by the way).  No imagining that the single greatest sporting event that I have, or ever will, personally witness would soon occur:  the winning of a Stanley Cup in a Game 7 on our home ice...right there in front of us.

There was little hope at all in '02-'03.  It felt like we were in for a long grind with the "forever 0.500" Canes.

But there certainly is hope in '09-'10.   In fact, it feels to me like we're finally getting it as an org, and that this groundswell of young talent will be replenished in the upcoming draft and beyond.  That we are beginning to establish a sustainable system of feeding talent in from the bottom of the pyramid instead of lateral transfers of veterans from other teams.

I'm excited as a fan about the future, both near-term and far.  But, mostly...I'm thoroughly entertained.

Thank you, dear Canes, for that.  It's important.

Kind of stating the obvious here, but wanted to check out a gut instinct I think we all have by taking a look at the numbers while Fuse TV continues with a Black Eye Peas festival this snowy Saturday afternoon.

Take a look at the Goals For (GF) and Goals Against (GA) columns of this summary table of the Hurricanes experience.

Pro-rating this season's experience to date and projecting it forward in time to the end of the season (a classic investment mistake and in no way a projection of the team's future) is nonetheless a useful analysis.

Our current GF number after 53 games is 141 (2.66 goals per game), helped by the recent scoring outburst.  This projects forward as a composite experience number to 218 GF for the season if this exact rate continued (again, not a prediction, just a measure of "how are we doing so far?").   

Well, that's more anemic than the past couple of seasons, but better than the weak seasons of '02-'03 and '03-'04.  Actually on par with the Cup run of '01-'02, with its low-scoring games and Cinderella run.

But, let's take a look at the Goals Against (GA) numbers to date, which is currently at 174 GA (3.28 goals per game).  Right away you can see the problem, when we're allowing more than 3 goals a game and only scoring slightly over 2 goals per game.

But, to compare this to past season, 174 GA to date projects to 269 GA for the season (again, not a prediction, just an analytical tool).  Well, that's a level not experienced by any other Hurricanes team before.

Even the "we'll just out-score you!" offense-first approach that Lavi took to bring the Cup to North Carolina (let's just pause and marinate on that for a moment) only allowed 260 goals to hold the record GA for a season.

So, although yes, we were a bit offensively challenged in the season to date compared with past Hurricane teams, it's also the case that we're leaking like a sieve on defense (at least until the past few games).

Again, something we all knew.  But, there it is in numbers, for what it's worth.

Bottom line, learn to score 3 to 4 goals a game and hold your opposition to 2 goals or fewer and you'll win a lot of games.  You can write that one down.  :-D