The odds of any draft pick making an NFL career is not that great. See this article from Bleacherreport

My opinion? For what its worth:

Round 1, 12 overall — Knowshon Moreno — He is doing just fine. He needs to work on not fumbling the ball, but he has improved considerably. He will have a good career.

Round 1, 18 overall — Robert Ayers — He has contributed to this team. Sitting out one game is not cause for alarm.

Round 2, 37 overall — Alphonso Smith — A controversial pick, he will always be under the microscope. He showed early flashes of greatness and has not been the same player after he injured his ankle. It is not cause for great alarm when Ty Law, a proven multiple award-winning veteran, comes in to play. CB’s generally take more time to become impact players.

Round 2, 48 overall — Darcel McBath — Coming along nicely.

Round 2, 64 overall — Richard Quinn — His day will come if we just wait awhile.

Round 4, 114 overall — David Bruton — Coming along nicely.

Round 4, 132 overall — Seth Olsen — I have not seen much from him so I do not have an opinion.

Round 5, 141 overall — Kenny McKinley — His early career has not been good. He is a project, imo.

Round 6, 174 overall — Tom Brandstater — He looked good in the preseason.

Round 7 – 225 overall – Blake Schlueter — I’m glad we got rid of him.

CFA – Chris Baker – He made the active roster and is being brought along. While I would like to see him get more playing time, I believe he will get playing time when he is ready.

CFA – Marquez Branson – TE – too early to tell but he is on the practice squad.

CFA – Tony Carter – CB – too early to tell but he is on the practice squad. Remember though that he was kept on the squad when the team released Jack Williams .

CFA – Mitch Erickson – G – too early to tell but he is on the practice squad. But he was drafted in ’08, so it is time for him to prove himself. (much like Carlton Powell).

CFA – Kelly Braxton – LB – too early to tell but he is on the practice squad.

CFA – Everette Pedescleaux – too early to tell but he is on the practice squad injured list.

Other additions that I consider much like the draft:

Coach McDaniels – I give him a B+ thus far
Coach Nolan – I give him a B+ thus far
Coach Priefer – F (we need to dump him)
Coach Barone – C
Coach Gase – C+
Coach Donatell – B+
Coach Martindale – B
Coach Phifer – B
Brian Xanders – B+

Coaching holdovers:
Coach Turner – B
Coach Dennison – C

Some will proclaim a player a “bust” in their first 8 games. Some will proclaim a player a “superstar” in their first 8 games. I believe either extreme is unwarranted unless supported by the facts. I believe Coach Priefer, for example, is a bust. I cannot think of any rookie this year on any team that is an unqualified “superstar” regardless of where they were drafted. Finally, I believe all of our draftees still on the roster are progressing nicely.

My last point is about the team. We are, in fact, a rookie team composed of veterans and rookies. This is the first year under a new coach and composed of a LOT of new players. Our midseason slump is baffling and upsetting. Yet I am behind the team 100%. GO BRONCOS!

I was asked to repost some information I posted earlier in hoosierteacher's Chalk Talk article:

The field should be in good shape for tomorrow's game. Maybe a little more “give” from the moisture on Saturday and early Sunday. The grounds crew will have it squeeged and ready to go. Here are some good links for more information on the turf at Mile High:

• Mile High At Invesco Field = official site
• Turf System = Video of the field
• Throwback End Zone = explanation of this week's treatment of the end zone
• Graff Turf Farms = they grow the grass
• Surface Solutions = they are the braintrust of the turf system
• 2006 STMA Award Surface of the Year PDF = the field was voted the best in the world in 2006

The field, if you have never stepped on it, is like a putting green. Think of an office building carpet.  It has Kentucky Bluegrass combined with more than 20 million synthetic fibers sewn into the turf. So it will not “divot” or tear up. It has a complex underground warm water heating system to keep the field from freezing.

Just a comment: I think it is a shame that some NFL teams play on converted baseball fields in the dirt.

Also, I don't remember who is was, but one MHR member posted some great photos of the stadium after her visit during the summer. Anyone know that article?

Are you REALLY REALLY serious about watching NFL games?  I confess that I am not.  But I researched how to do it and have some suggestions because it would be nice to view the whole field.

Every team is allowed to videotape any other team from the pressbox.  That video must be sent to the "NFL Dub Center" at 1 NFL Plaza, Mt. Laurel, NJ 08054  Telephone 877-635-5675, website http://www.nflfilms.com/ 

Television videos are also sent to the NFL Dub Center.

Another source is Sports Video Group, website http://sportsvideo.org/main/about_svg/ 

There are other videos that also must be sent to the NFL Dub Center.

Those films are then distributed to the teams.

You have to qualify as a "professional" to get these videos from the dub center. You have to fill out a credit application, etc. http://www.nflfilms.com/CreditApplicationTerms2008-09.pdf 

Less complete coverage of the  games (because like on TV  they don't show the whole field) can be found through NFL Game Rewind: https://gamerewind.nfl.com/nflgr/secure/registerform?campaign=MSN_GameRewind for $49.99. But it has all of 2008 plus this year's games.  ALL OF THEM! The best deal for the sophisticated fan but not good enough for the fanatic. Pretty cool in HiDef!

Holy smokes!  Look at these numbers:

associatedcontent - #4

Bleacherreport - #5

theonlinewire - #9

Foxsports - #17

I had to do a double-take when I looked at the foxsports ranking.  Yes, it did include the win against the Cowgirls and the Vikings win over the Packers. Obviously rankings like these are among the more stupid stats I follow. I am perfectly content to have the Broncos ranked anywhere in the top ten, but 17?  Get a grip on reality dude!

Pick yer poison for a little background music (you may need to download the mp3 and play in your favorite player):

Start Me Up

(I Can’t Get No) Satisfaction

Get Off Of My Cloud

Time Is On My Side

Steelers.  Love em or hate em, you gotta give em credit.  They have perhaps the best continuity of any NFL team in history.  Virtually no turnover at the ownership and management levels.  They field good teams every year.

Rock bands break up for a variety of reasons: one guy is doing too many drugs, another guy just isn’t good enough, etc.  But a major reason is that one guy’s britches get too big. Let’s face it.  Mick Jagger IS bigger than the band.  But to his credit he is still with the Stones.  And to the band’s credit, they have stuck with Mick all these years. They all realize that the sum is greater than the parts.

How does that relate to the Broncos?  We have had and do have our share of NFL superstars.  Elway, Champ Bailey, etc.  To my recollection we have only had two “superstar” problems.  Cutler and Portis.  They both thought they were bigger than the team and forced their way out of town.  IMO, Shanahan also got too big for his britches and was forced out by Bowlen.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions and lined with inflated egos.  To you, my friends, I raise a toast in hopes that this year the Broncos re-establish the highest ideals of the team and great success!

 Hoosierteacher wrote a reply to a post I made to his "MHR Chalk Talk" that got me to thinking...what are the qualities of a successful coach? He said:

A big myth is that coaches "specialize". The truth is, any coach that is HC, OC, or DC material can coach OC or DC. I never had a passion for offense, but I could run one as good as a defense.

This post is more a collection of random thoughts than a well thought out article.  However early it is to be crowning a new king of coaches in Denver, I think McDaniels and the Broncos' coaches are certainly on track. Major kudos to Pat Bowlen (including Xanders, Ellis, and the dearly departed Goodmans) for going after a coach first and McDaniels for assembling a talented group of coaches.

The team released a lot of players and acquired many new ones.  It can easily be said that we are both a rebuilding and an expansion team. Yet we cannot say that simply changing the player personnel has made all the difference in this year's team. Credit must also be given to the large turnover in coaching staff.

I read an article on the worst coaching hires in Sports Illustrated (Eric Mangini being the worst ever).  There are quite a few guys we could have hired, but did not: Raheem Morris, Spagnuolo, Rex Ryan, Rick Dennison, Schwartz, etc. Instead of going for instant credibility with the fans Bowlen went with long-term building and ability. So far, I don't think anyone can reasonably say that Bowlen made a bad hire.

Why was Shanahan fired?  Many think it was because he would not fire Slowik or give up GM responsibilities.  I believe it was because of his personality.  It was Shanahan's way or the highway.  An easy arrogance lording over his domain.  Sounds to me like Mangini fits that mold.

I re-read Hoosierteacher's article "On Field Ramifications of Head Coaching Change" for more insight. I also looked at what little info there was regarding McDaniels' interviews. Another great article is Hoosierteacher's article "System Issues and the 2008 Broncos"

There are two goals for a system to be effective.  First, it must be executed better than the opposition runs their system.  Second, it must not fall into a predictable pattern (even while staying in the bounds of a set system). ... I found that I could take complex systems (be they math, science, or the run contain) and break them down into bite sized pieces for scholars or athletes, get the information across, and motivate them to execute....basics come first.  Along with the basics, the team needs an identity.  Beyond that, everything else is just icing. 

I learned that identity builds cohesiveness.  We can bring our own individual traits to the table (he was intense, I was calm), but we shared a common bond.  Our job wasn't to build character, but to reveal it.  Our job wasn't to win games, but to teach the kids to win games.  Our job wasn't to out-coach the other team, but to beat them on the field with sound skills. ...We taught the kids to play every play as if it was the only play that mattered. ... Is this just another play in practice, or are you playing this drill as if your family's life depends on it

Most people recognized that a major flaw of the 2008 Broncos was the defense.  It made sense, superficially, to hire a new head coach that was a defensive coach.  But I buy in to Hoosierteacher's explanation that any coach can coach either offense or defense as long as he is teaching the basics and building a team identity.  What are the qualities of a successful coach?  Here is a tentative outline of random thoughts:

• Good teacher - can communicate to the players how to institute the game plan and how to carry it out/ covering material for the say the offense as a whole and then going back to each individual or the individual and his position coach to fine tune the bigger concept./ coaches that could relay information in simple and logical terms.
• Good strategist - game planning/ Creates an environment of success:
• Good tactician - flexible enough to change the game plan to adjust to the opponent/ breaks down plays into its individual components/puts his players in positions where they can succeed. Doesn't make bone-headed play calls.
• Good student - can break down film/ researches and keep educating himself/ attention to detail and thoroughness./ ability to analyze a player's strengths and weaknesses
• Good leader - Clearly identifies and communicates the team's identity/ enjoys having great coaches around him/ puts the players first, sets them up for success/ Trains to compete and competes how they train/ good delegater/ continiity of system/ does not live on his reputation. I recommend re-reading boydy2669's post "From Another Coaches Perspective"

What are "The Basics" for this team?

• Ball Control - Avoid turnovers, preach YAC & Tackling (correct angles, get as many guys to the ball as you can), everyone plays their part, demand excellent field position, manage the clock...
• Force Turnovers - drills
• Aggressive defense (not run contain or pass prevent) While we appear to have a base 5-2 defense, I am reluctant to apply any kind of scheme label to it because I have seen it go to 4-3, 3-4, and other formations.  Players I anticipate always being on weakside playing on strongside make an easy label impossible.
• Conditioning - from better nutrition to more running to yoga, A to Z, the Broncos made a point this year to get the players in better physical condition.

Template Coaches (see NFL Hall of Fame ) Here are some of my favorites:

• Bill Belichick - Patriots
• Bill Parcells - Giants
• Bill Cowher - Steelers
• Chuck Noll - Steelers
• Tom Landry - Cowboys
• Don Shula - Colts & Dolphins
• Bill Walsh - 49's
• Vince Lombardi - Packers
• George Halas - Bears
• Paul Brown - Browns

Ranking NFL Coaches links

• "ZEUS analysis"
• "Top 2009 Coaches"
• "Bleacher Report Top Coaches" (McDaniels is ranked the absolute worst)

In summary, I love what I have seen from the new Broncos coaching staff thus far this year. How about you? What is their "identity?"

Holy Batman Robin!  The delay in announcing cuts seems league-wide!  John Bena "The Sportsguru"'s thread has over 1,300 comments now.  Why is this happening?

Just some thoughts:

• Are teams facing any real penalties if they don't?  If not, why should they?
• Why doesn't the NFL site keep a list of cuts as they receive them? 
• Does a delay in announcing a cut affect the 24-hour waiver period?
• WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE REASON FOR THE DELAY?
  

I posted this in another Fanpost yesterday and a few members asked that it be posted as its own Fanpost.

And how can we leverage Marshall to achieve meeting that need?

To me that is the question.

• Do we need Brandon Marshall? My answer is no. We have other receivers and they are doing good. Are we a better team with BM? I’m not really sure. I have not seen him play at all with the new system. If you look at last year, then yes we would be a better team.
• What other team needs are there? Defense: our front 3 are doing extremely well. Weakside DB’s are doing extremely well. Strongside DB’s could use some help. Safeties and CB’s are doing well but need some adjustments (I don’t think we need personnel adjustments there). Special Teams = if we could get Devin Hester I’d be stoked. I don’t think Chicago will do that, A. Smith, P. Hillis and McKinley all look good, so I’m not convinced it is a real need. Offense: assuming all of our injured players return, we are fine. Could we use an upgrade at QB? NO and NO and NO.

I see our biggest NEED as a monster LOLB good in pass defense (cover the seam routes), the run game and rushing the passer.

Second biggest NEED is a big-body WR like BM. I think Scheffler could fill that role extremely well if given a chance.

So, who’s willing to “MAKE A DEAL?” AND what deal do we want?

I don’t want a QB this year. Orton backed by Simms and with Brandstater’s progress – we’re just fine thank you. Maybe next year.

I want a monster LOLB!

Brandon Marshall will complete his suspension soon.  I decided in a show of good faith to delete the previous "BMarsh's New Team Uniform" Why?

BMarsh should have another chance to show to us and the world that he can grow up and be a man.  BMarsh deserves another chance to show us and the world that he is every bit a deserving top-5 NFL wide receiver.  Let him show his talents on the field this year.  If he still truly believes that somewhere over the rainbow a better life awaits, then the team continues to try and accomodate his trade request.

Some of you don't want anything to do with him.  Some are cautiously unenthusiastic.  Some are cautiously optimistic.  Others say pay the man he's the greatest thing since sliced bread.  I think you will find that there are those on MHR who hold every one of those opinions.

I voted for cautiously optimistic and give him a chance.  What do you think and why?

"Beautiful Dreamer, Wake Unto Me"  I too have a dream and hope it won't become a nightmare!  I'm awfullly confident though that the Broncos will do extremely well in today's game against the bears.

What do I want to see?

• Shut down Cutler = shut down the passing game. 
• Unveil more of our running game
• Orton makes virtually no mistakes
• Takeaway ratio improves

Shut Down Cutler  If I have seen one weakness on our defense so far it is that we are not shutting down the passing game.  I'm concerned about that, especially when we meet San Diego. Their passing game, especially on 3rd down, looked strong.  And it wouldn't hurt to rub a little Cutler into the dirt!  But no headhunting! 

Running Game I know we've been focused on gearing up our passing game, but it would be very nice to see mre of our running game on display.

Orton Overall I have been more than pleased with Orton's performances.  He's improving every week, he seems more confident in the pocket (eg less "happy feet"), makes good crisp throws, good decisions, etc., etc.  I'm looking for even more improvement today.

Takeaways  Another area of significant concern for me.  BDawk, I think, is scheduled to play today and I'm excited to see him on the field.  Cutler's propensity for passing into coverage may give us a good day.

What are you looking for today?

Brandon Marshall has been suspended for conduct detrimental to the club.  What does that really mean and what effect does it have on the team and on Brandon Marshall? 

Article VIII of the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement ("CBA") deals with discipline.  Conduct Detrimental to Club is defined as a maximum fine of an amount equal to one week's salary and/or suspension without pay for a period not to exceed four (4) weeks.  The Terrell Owens mess a few years (arbitrator's decision dated Nov 23, 2005) ago was expressly overruled by the latest CBA. So we really can't use the TO experience in analyzing Baby TO.

First, we must stop assuming that BMarsh is wealthy.  He is not.  He earned appx. $500,000 each year for his first three years.  Oddly, this year he chooses to act out and it is the year he is scheduled to earn $2.198 million. If I am correct, NFL players are not paid for a full year but rather for the pre-season required camps plus 16 regular season game weeks.  Playoffs have another pay schedule.  So, assuming 17 weeks to be paid (16 game season), BMarsh is currently earning appx. $129.294 per week.  Reports are that he is suspended for the next two weeks remaining in the pre-season, so he's lost at least $2,450 ($1,225 per week for veterans under the CBA).  BMarsh said he's losing $14,000 per week in preseason (but see this article that says he's losing $17,000 Brandon Marshall says he'll be at training camp"  He can file a grievance with the NFLPA, but I'm pretty sure that will go nowhere. He will lose the $129.294 per week if his suspension is continued for the first two games of the regular season.

One thing we can agree on is that BMarsh has not handled the situation very well...and by extension his agent.

On a human level no-one wins in this situation. 

What will be the effect of this?  Here are some intuited ideas:

• Brandon will wake up and smell the coffee. Probability Score = 20%
• Brandon will pout and be suspended another two weeks. Probability Score = 60%
• Broncos will trade him. Probability Score = 50%
• Broncos will bench him. Probability = 0%  Don't give me that weak argument about setting a precedent.
• Broncos will release him unconditionally. Probability = 40%

BMarsh will not be eligible for the balance of his contract or termination pay if the Club can demonstrate that, after receipt of a written warning from the Club, the player failed to exhibit the level of good faith effort which can be reasonably expected from NFL players on that Club.  That's also in paragraph 11 of the standard player's contract. See also paragraph 2 regarding conduct.  Bottom line: the Broncos would not have to pay anything and BMarsh would get nothing.  Yes, the Broncos may lose a good player but they will have gotten rid of a problem.

As styg50 asked in his pre-draft running backs article the question is whether we are still a one-cut and go zone-block system? Guaging by the first couple of pre-season games, I have to say I really don't know. I think it's an amoeba wrapped in a mystery cloaked with a pre-season mist.

Ron Turner (running backs coach) is a disciple of Alex Gibbs, the master of the one-cut and go zone block system. Rick Dennison (offensive line coach) is also a product of Alex Gibbs. McD, on the other hand, is a product of the Patriots man blocking system. My guess is that the zone block system will be our dominant running scheme because we have been, at least historically, one of if not the best running team in the league. But we will see a lot of variations, especially the much touted 3-TE sets. We've already seen 4-WR sets (a LOT in fact), so I do not doubt that we will see some incredibly powerful and diverse sets.

 More after the jump

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I watched last week's 49's game again and paid special attention to the defense.  As some predicted, the defense was almost exclusively in a 5-2 alignment. 

The 5-2 was originated by Oklahoma and was/is a favored formation against run-heavy teams. It's weakness is in pass coverage.  It requires the secondary and strongside OLB to be especially diligent in maintaining disciplined assignments.

Some of the 49's biggest plays were passes to the strongside.  What I saw, and correct me if I'm wrong, was that our strongside OLB often missed his assignment and that caused our DB's to be confused on their assignments.  The DB's were often forced to decide to cover one player or cover the other player in their area of responsibility.  As a result, the Niners were able to send easy passes to the open receiver. I also saw Champ whiff a few coverages.  Champ's mistakes really bothered me because he does not do that!  Doom and others on the weakside did fine.

While I thought the Defense did a pretty good job of stopping the run and rushing the passer, I felt we did not do a good job on pass coverage. So my question is: Do we have personnel problems or is it only a matter of coaching our existing players?  I think Darrel Reid may not be the answer at strongside OLB, we need more coaching, AND we could really use a stud at strongside OLB. While Doom and Ayers could bookend, I am not convinced either of them have the skillset required for the strongside OLB.

What are your thoughts on how to improve our D?

I would appreciate an article/discussion on ST’s. I am woefully ignorant on the subject. I know McD stated he would emphasize ST’s. And ST’s play EVERY change of possession. That’s a lot of time and contribution to the team. What I would like is (1) ST theory (2) ST formations (3) ST player somotypes (4) ST players on the roster.

I somewhat understand the kicking part.  I often hear "don't kick it to Hester" and we do, he scores and the commentators wail.  Or kick to the "coffin corner", get good "hang time", etc.

I don't understand the theory and formations part.  As a fan, I generally just follow the ball and don't focus on the rest of the field.

I read John P. Lopez's story Classic middle LBs are roaming their way to extinction and realized that the Broncos don't have a "classic" middle linebacker and have not had a good one since Al Wilson.

The story has a picture of Ray Lewis playing in the Ravens' hybrid 4-3/3-4 defense. Ray is 6'1" 250 and listed on the Raven's website as "ILB".  We don't even have that category on our roster. 

My question is whether we have a "hybrid" middle linebacker?  If so, who is/are they? I don't see DJ in that role.