In most recent edition of the NBA Coaches Dead Pool, issued after Lawrence Frank was yanked off the stage after His Orchestra went 0-16 (not very wunnerful, apparently), the winner of the traditional "who's next?" poll, with a large plurality of the votes (34%), was our very own Nate McMillan.  While it appears that readers of The Pool may not be correct in their prediction, as word out of the Windy City is that Vinnie Del Negro will be fitted with concrete shoes and thrown into Lake Michigan, and that this will happen Any Day Now.  Derrick Rose is openly complaining about "the system", the Bulls are an unhappy crew despite some decent talent, and he's never looked particularly competent holding a clipboard.  Compared to Del Negro, Nate is Red Auerbach.

And obviously, the season-ending injury to Greg Oden might have bought McMillan some time.  Expectations for the season are probably a bit lower, and one of the major challenges facing the team--how to integrate #52 into the offense--is now a moot point.  But there are still issues--the perimeter defense is terrible; Steve Blake's current role with the team is unjustified by his play, there are rumors of other players being unhappy, and a few veiled criticisms have been tossed Nate's way by his players, most notably Brandon Roy.

While I'm not ready to pronounce Nate dead meat, it's clear that his course is now a rocky one, and nearly half the ship's crew is in the infirmary.  I like Nate--I rate him only behind Ramsay and Adelman in the pantheon of Blazer coaches (the rating only considers a coach's Blazer tenure, in case folks are wondering about Lenny Wilkens' absence from the top of the order) and I consider him a key part of the Blazer turnaround.  But he's well past the half-life of an NBA coach, events outside his control have intervened--and I think (and the Pool concurs) that it's a good bet that Nate will be gone by season's end.  Not 100%, but I'd say even money is against Mr. Sonic.

With that in mind--who is available?  Given that we're midseason, I would expect that any current NBA or NCAA head coach is not available, so no fair suggesting Pops or Jackson or SVG or Coach K.  While we would love to have one of these guys, chances are they aren't coming here anytime soon.

One option would be to go with an interim coach for the year, which probably means either Dean Demopolous or Monty Williams, the two guys on Nate's staff with the experience, temperament, and health to serve as an NBA head man.  Neither have had the gig before, so promoting either would be a bit risky--OTOH, the last time the Blazers promoted an assistant was a fellow named Rick Adelman.  In general, I wouldn't hold anything that has happened as an assistant against either men (lots of folks have been criticizing Demopolous in particular for the current road trip--it seems clear that he's basically sticking to Nate's game plan, which is probably the most reasonable thing for him to do).  With an interim coach, you can give them an extended interview, and have the inside track of retaining them if they work out (and no big money contract to worry about if they don't).

Assistants on other benches who might be tempted, and who are worthy of mention:

• Tom Thibodeau (currently with Boston).  Widely regarded as the architect of the Boston Celtics' defense.  Hasn't sought out a head job yet--but could be picking his spots, and the Portland job might be a spot worth picking.
• Mike Budenholzer (currently with the Spurs).  Pops top assistant.   Probably has a good relationship with KP for that reason.

Other coaches who are available, who aren't believed to be retired (or dead), and who aren't complete crud, are:

• Byron Scott (still being paid by the Hornets)
• his replacement in Joisey, the aforementioned Lawrence Frank (who I can't really blame for the 0-16 start, even though coach Kiki has won a few games now).  Also still getting paid by his former team and might well be enjoying a vacation.
  
• Jeff Van Gundy.  Last seen coaching Houston.  Knowledgeable coach, but has a habit of wearing out his welcome.
  
• Mike Fratello, Hubie Brown, Doug Collins.  Please, none of these.
• Two ex-Minnesota coaches, Randy Wittman and Dwane Casey, the latter of which is another McMillan protege.
• Terry Porter.  Had rough runs in both Milwaukee and Phoenix; would probably get a courtesy interview due to his Blazer roots.
• Avery Johnson.  Like McMillan in many ways, took the Mavs to the Finals before ticking off his locker room. 
  
• Paul Silas.  Another "bad cop" coach in the McMillan mold, last seen coaching Cleveland before LeBron threw him under the bus.
  

One other name:

• Ettore Messina.  Euroleague coach widely rumored to be in the running for the Toronto job a while back--given that Triano isn't working out well, he may STILL be next in line for this gig.  Would be quite the risky move to go after him, given his lack of experience in US basketball.  But highly regarded.
  

No poll on this post, as I'm looking more for ideas and discussion.

By "us" I mean Blazer fandom as a whole, not BEdgers, journalists, or anyone in particuilar.  If this doesn't apply to you, then it doesn't apply to you--don't take it as a criticism in this case.

But last year, after Oden suffered the chipped patella courtesy of Corey Maggette, there were a whole lot people calling for him to "man up" and play.  The injury was dismissed as, in the immortal words of the Black Knight, "just a flesh wound", and Oden's desire and heart were questioned by many quarters.  A few moronic radio dudes engaged in all sorts of rumor-mongering about dope, wimmen, and parties, and Greg was being discussed as though he were Chris Washburn or Roy Tarpley.

In some cases, this may have been motivated by people terrified that the critics making the S** B***e comparisons were right--wanting you to play Willis Reed and prove 'em all wrong.

It may well have been that the injury was more serious than any of us (including possibly the doctors) thought, and now the consequences are here.  It takes a violent injury to chip a bone, and perhaps there was structural damage to the rest of the patella, that weakened it, with the result that the stress of pro basketball has led do the current injury.  We all hope the docs can fix it right this time--the good thing about bones is they heal well, and can be mechanically reinforced if necessary.

I want to be the first to say--take your time, Greg.  Listen to your body.  Come back when you are ready, not before.  Don't let anyone who sits behind a desk for a living tell you that you need to "man up"; you've shown that you're tough enough already.  Don't let anyone who yaks into a microphone question your heart.

With GO likely done for the year, I suspect that many of us--even if we would prefer not to--are revising our season predictions downward.  Not just because of Oden, but the other injuries as well--Outlaw and Batum, mainly, and Rudy's lingering back issues.  The playoffs may well be within reach--we got there last year with Oden being ineffective or out for much of the year--but winning the NW, or advancing in the playoffs, might be a tall order.

OTOH, this team without Oden and Batum both more resembles the 07-08 team, which went 41-41 but didn't make the playoffs. 

So, two questions:

1) What should the expectations going forward be?  Assume that Batum and Outlaw come back on schedule, and no major roster moves.  Is this a legit playoff team?  If the Blazers fail to make it, should heads roll?   How far do we dial back the goals, or the clock?

2) How hard should KP try to make the playoffs and advance THIS YEAR?  If San Antonio, for example, were to offer us a live healthy body of reasonable skill, for Nic Batum--physical waived--would you consider it?  Or should we limit ourselves to minor moves--signing journeymen big men off the waiver wire, or small potatoes trades, but avoid touching the "core", however you define that, even if it means the difference between the playoffs and not?

To make timbo happy, I won't post a poll on this, just looking for discussion.

My thoughts:  If we make the playoffs, I'll be very happy.  If we don't, I won't be getting out my pitchforks. 

I would NOT do anything stupid just to try and get a playoff birth.  There are a few guys on the team who I wouldn't mind parting with (Outlaw and Blake come to mind, although the former is hurt, the latter hasn't played well, and both are FAs at the end of the year), but I wouldn't have minded a trade involving them even before tonight.  The injury makes be a bit less picky about what I'd take back in return, I suppose...

No, not that the Civil War would be a competition for the Rose Bowl, or a prediction as to who would win.

I called it that a certain ringer, thought to be suspended for the year, would partake in the festivities, on Dwight Jaynes' blog here.   The money quote:

 

Who suspects that Blount’s season-long suspension–might just be lifted before the end of the season? Otherwise, why permit him to practice–if its anything more than lifting weights and such, he would be taking reps from other players. And in college football, practice time and running the plays is a VALUABLE commodity.

Hopefully, this won’t happen–but if the Ducks manage to be 7-4 or so heading into the Civil War, I could just see a whole bunch of sanctimonious nonsense coming out of Eugene about how he’s reformed, is Truly and Deeply Sorry, and deserves to play in the final game of his college career.

Obviously, I whiffed on the 7-4, for both teams.  :)  But after the Stanford debacle, Blount was reinstated, but didn't play in the next two games--a romp over ASU and the nail-biter at Arizona.  But there he was, back in the Civil War.

Something tells me that the Ducks had no intention of keeping Blount suspended, if his presence would matter one bit.

Here's a quick and dirty (and probably wrong, but what the hell) idea on how to improve the offensive flow of the Blazers. I'll ignore the Andre/Roy issues, and focus on the post.

The Problem:  With Oden manning the post and being a beast, along with LMA assuming his usual position on the high blocks, there's less room for the guards to drive to the hoop--with our bigs down there, so is the defense, and in position to challenge the shot.  This is exacerbated in Miller is in the game, as he isn't a legimate threat from deep (it would be nice if HE knew that, but that's beside the point).

With that in mind, we shall focus on LaMarcus Aldridge, in particular his role on offense.  Right now, most of his shots in the halfcourt offense are medium-range jumpers, often of the turnaround variety.  That shot, coupled with his general skill at outside shooting, his ability to run the court, and his tendency to avoid physical play inside, has long prompted comparisons with Rasheed Wallace--originally, he was touted as Sheed without the issues.  On defense, not so much--Wallace is one of the best defensive PFs in the game, LaMarcus, not so.  But on offense, the comparison is somewhat valid.

But Rasheed has never in his career played with a beast like Oden.  The centers have played with include high-post behemoths (Sabonis), and defensive specialists (Davis, Ben Wallace, Kendrick Perkins)--guys who generally get out of the way on offense.  Prior to this year, LMA has been paired with defensive specialists (Prz--we'll forget Jamaal Magloire) in the post, and as a result has had room to work.  But now he's got Oden.

The solution?  It might not work--LMA hasn't focused much on long range play--but maybe it's time to follow the sage advices of guys like Stan Van Gundy and Rudy Tomjonavic, on How To Win With a Dominating Big Man. 

I'm talking some form of the wagon wheel offense.  I'm talking about taking Aldridge out of the post altogether, and turning him into a face-up jumpshooter on offense, including letting him launch 3s.  I'm talking about turning him not into Rasheed Wallace, but instead into Rashard Lewis.

The Orlando Magic have been kicking lots of butt this year with a lineup not dissimilar to our own in many respects.  You have an intelligent penetrating point guard (Nelson/Miller), a dominant wing player (Vince Carter/Brandon Roy), and a dominating big man (Howard/Oden).  But look at the forward spots--the Magic choose to employ TWO perimeter weapons, leaving Howard alone in the post on offense.  Last year it was Rashard and Turkey-glue; this year Hedont is gone, replaced with Ryan Anderson.  While Lewis is a volume scorer, Anderson plays the reliable-jumpshooter-when-open role--albeit on who can play credible defense on big men at the other end.  (A weakness of last year's Magic was trouble guarding opposing 4s; as neither Lewis nor Hedo were strong post defenders).

For an older example, consider Clyde's rockets.  With Hakeem in the middle, and four perimeter players (Horry, Mad Max, Clyde, and Kenny Smith) all of whom the defense had to account for.

So maybe rather than lining up to the elbow with his back to the basket, LaMarcus ought to channel his inner Rashard and play facing the basket.  Assuming he can improve his range to keep his defender out of the post, he might become a feared weapon--at 6'11" not many defenders will be able to block his shot.  He can still crash the offensive boards, and venture inside to set picks if necessary.  Many LMA critics will of course scream bloody murder (much criticism of him seems to derive from the belief that all power forwards should be Karl Malone)--but

So maybe the solution for the Blazers woes on offense is for LMA, rather than doing what lotsa folks want him to do (take it inside!), is to do the exact opposite.  He seems to have the range (although he doesn't take 3s very often, and when he does they're frequently high degree-of-difficulty shots against the clock), and he's long and lean enough to still crash the boards.  And it would clear out the middle for Oden and the guards to operate.

Greetings!

After a nice relaxing summer off, including a bit of an autumn snooze where the Pool ignored the recent sacking of one Byron Scott, we're back in time for the Thanksgiving weekend.  And to nobody's surprise, Lawrence Frank has been left on the side of the New Jersey Turnpike as the Nets head towards the Narrows Bridge, and the beautiful scenery of Brooklyn.  

More after the jump.

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This whole Blake vs Roy vs Miller vs Nate thing...
... is getting a bit annoying, and a bit difficult to figure out.

What we know is:

* B-Roy had a decent playoff series against Houston, and some tough D.  Much of the rest of the team stank.  Blazers flaws as a jumpshooting team were exposed.  Many thought that the lack of a creative backcourt player besides Roy, one who the opposing D had to respect, was The Issue.

* Roy signed a big max contract; few dispute that he earned it.

* After a few false starts, KP signed a prize free agent, one Andre Miller--a guy who is generally favorably regarded in the NBA, and whose prior team (the Sixers) was one of the few to record a sweep against the Blazers last year.

* This signing came after Nate and Andre fell in love over Italian food, discussing hoops tactics.  :)

* Despite the initial love affair, the team struggled in pre-season... and despite the fact that the incumbent PG has not played well for much of the year, Steve Blake continues to start and Miller comes off the bench.  The explanation from the coach is unit chemistry--Blake plays better with Roy.

* Aforementioned Miller plays well with the interior guys, and with the second unit players, many of whom are good spot-up shooters (or were, until Trout and Batum got hurt). 

* Despite Blake struggling, he continues to start.

* Roy has struggled a bit himself--his shot is off, his ballhandling is problematic, and the layups he used to make over the D are getting blocked more.

* A few other distractions--"anthem-gate"--have occurred.  Normally something that would be ignored, but there seems to be an issue.

* Nobody has come out and pointed any specific fingers at anybody.  Yet a lot of people assume that there is rotten locker room chemistry.

Obviously, something is missing here.  The most popular explanation, among a certain segemnt of the fanbase seems to be blaming Brandon.  He's selfish, a ballhog.  He's got his big contract and now no longer gives a rip.  He doesn't like the newcomer, and the reason Miller isn't starting despite outplaying Blake on most nights, is because of Roy's interference--Roy wants to play with Blake so that's who starts.  Roy and McMillan have thrown Andre Miller, as Dwight Jaynes put it, under the bus.

But something about that just doesn't make sense. 

What if the problem--is Miller?

I'm not saying it is, or it isn't.  I don't know.  But it seems like the relationship between Nate and Andre went south.  Nate did himself no favors when he teed off on a spiel about how his feelings were hurt as a player when he got benched for Gary Payton.  But even Nate was smart enough to realize that he got benched for a guy who will be in Springfield in a few years, and as coach you shouldn't let that sort of thing bother you.  Blake's a big boy, whose been there before--he can take it.

But what if it's something else?  The dude has been traded for Darius Miles, and later for Allen Iverson.  You think that he would be an ideal guy to pair with Carmelo Anthony and Marcus Camby--but Denver didn't get too far with him, and took a flyer on Iverson.  (Ironically, the backup who made Miller expendable was Steve Blake...)  Miller thrived for a while in Philly, where he and the other Andre made a fearsome backcourt tandem, but Philly didn't seem to be in a big hurry to re-sign him, and he never seemed to work well with Elton Brand.

And now he's--allegedly--having issues with Brandon Roy, who has long been regarded as an excellent teammate on a team which has enjoyed excellent chemistry.

Here's an alternate theory--one which I can't prove, but which isn't any less plausible than the "Roy is now Iverson" theories that are abounding:

What if Miller... is an assist hog?  An assist hog, of course, is a guy who focuses on collecting assists like traditional ballhogs focus on scoring.  High assist numbers don't imply an assist hog (Steve Nash is not one, nor is CP3, nor is Chauncey or Jameer or Calderon or Parker or any of the other all-star caliber PGs in the league).  Assist hogs are guys who love to throw highlight-film lobs to cutters, to dish-and-kick to open shooters, who love to set up teammates to score--provided they get an assist. 

What do assist hogs NOT like?

Dominant wing scorers who break down the defense on their own.

Post up players who dribble and/or pivot a few times before launching a shot.

What if the issue with Brandon and Andre is that Andre, for whatever reason, thinks that passing the ball to the wings and running the offense through them, is the Wrong Way to Play?   What if the issue isn't Brandon being hoggy, but Andre?

There are quite a few fans who seem to have taken the position that basketball teams where someone other than the PG dominates the ball, are living in a state of mortal sin--which seems to be why much of the blowback from the team's lackluster play seems to be falling on the established All-Star, not the new guy who is now on his fifth NBA team.  But the Miller-as-assist-hog-theory would explain a few other things:

* Why Cleveland, and especially Denver, were happy to get rid of him, despite having a roster compliment (in Denver) that just SCREAMED for an established and talented PG.

* Why the relationship with Nate has soured.  If there's one thing that Nate cannot stand, it's an assist hog--he's already run two of them (Mr. Telfair and Senor Rodriguez) out of town.  Miller is far better then either of those two hotdogs, but what if the same principle is at work--Miller would rather be cute and creative, then just get the damn ball to the guy(s) who can score on anyone.

* Miller has had over his career, a bit of a reputation as a locker room disruptor.  He ain't no Z-bo or Stephon Marbury, of course--but not all locker-room cancers are ballhogs.  Who here remembers one Jeff McInnis?

I want to repeat, before I head off to bed, that I'm not sure I buy this theory myself.  I'd like to prefer that what's going on is simply the team has yet to mesh--both Brandon and Miller avoided off-season hoops while contracts were being negotiated, and the late signing of both deals (and a few key injuries) have prevented the team from gelling.  I hope that's the case.

But seeing as I still have a gigantic man-crush on B-Roy, and Miller has had these issues follow him before, and the Blazers have had great chemistry ever since Zach left town--it seems that a theory other than the whole "Roy's turned into Steve Francis" BS that seems to have infected this place, needs to be articulated.

The flames may now commence.  :)

Dwight says that Ben says that Quick says that Brandon Roy... is unhappy.

Why?

Not sure.  Whether Roy has said he's unhappy or not, or Quick is speculating such, I dunno.  Quick made the comment on the radio, Ben tweeted about it (but hasn't posted here), and Dwight put the story up on his blog.

Possibilities:

* Brandon isn't really all that unhappy, and this is another "Iavaroni to become Blazers coach" story.

* Brandon doesn't like his dinners with Andre

* Brandon doesn't like the idea of being turned into Rip Hamilton.

* Brandon is upset about the team's slowish start

* Brandon is ticked with Nate.

* Brandon, now with his contract, has realized money doesn't buy happiness

* Brandon is upset that Congress hasn't passed a healthcare bill yet.

What's really true?  Who knows.

The Blazers are 2-3, and lots of heat is falling on dear old Coach Nate--who has had his critics in town for years, but until recently hasn't provided them with any REAL ammunition.  (Complaints about mishandling guys like Telfair or Sergio nonwithstanding--what have these guys done since leaving the Blazers, after all?)  We've had at least one player (Miller) call McMillan out during the pre-season, albeit over a personal roster issue, and the team isn't meshing.

The justification Nate's defenders use--"this is a young team, he's teaching them the game"--is becoming less available, as the only rookies on the roster don't get any PT (2 of them being injured), and the team appears to now be well-scouted.  29 other coaches have the book on how to beat the Blazers, and the Blazers haven't yet adjusted.

So.... how hot is Nate's seat?

Since the open thread ain't up yet... here is a Not Quite Open thread; a thread which is, while not officially open for business, more than happy to make a quick cup of coffee for loyal customers while the grease in the deep-fryer warms up.  As always, no pictures, no cussin', etc.

Hopefuly Ben and Dave will get the real open thread up soon.

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah and all that.