Ken Berger, writing for CBS Sports, oes an excellent analysis of how teams are positioned in free agency, noting that the talent level drops off after Deron Willams--all the other free agents (definite or likely) are either not A-list players (though plenty of B-listers), or nearing the end of their careers. D-Will would, talent-wise, be a great fit, but the conventional wisdom is that he's not interested in coming to Portland. (And given that Williams managed to offend a reporter at The Columbian the other night, who called him a "jerk" in print, and there's ample evidence that Williams doesn't fit in with the Blazers' current culture focus, so perhaps the Blazers aren't interested in him either--though I think he's talented enough to tolerate some antics. (It doesn't affect his on-court play, which is excellent).

Dwight Jaynes is concerned that the team will spend its free agent dollars on...nobody (other than renewing Nic Batum, it seems).

I'm not sure the latter follows from the former, however. If we assume that D-Will isn't interested in the Blazers, and that the other FA point guards aren't an option (Steve Nash is old, and the rest of the crop, while improvements over Raymond Felton, aren't much to get excited about--Jose Calderon is probably the most intriguing of what remains), there are still plenty of ways the Blazers could profit.

And one way is by using their cap space to do a sign and trade.

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Since winning the 2007 lottery, the Blazers have hit a streak of incredible bad luck. (And bad decisions). Two franchise-caliber players lost to injury. Quite a few poor draft choices. And now the team is in rebuild mode--there's an outside shot the team makes the playoffs, but odds are that the Blazers will be playing ping-pong, not basketball, once the regular season ends.

In some ways, our journey might be reminiscent of the Baby Bulls, who were the it up-and-coming team in the early aughts. With guys like Luol Deng, Jason Williams (the Duke guard), Kirk Hinrich, Tyson Chandler, Eddie Curry, and Ben Gordon, the team looked like it was destined for greatness. But Williams was nearly killed in a traffic accident, ending his career. Curry ate himself out of a job. Gordon never could figure out how to be anything other than a bench-chucker, but refused to accept that role. Chandler has had a successful career, but only after leaving Chicago. Hinrich is gone. The team wisely selected LaMarcus Aldridge in the NBA draft, but traded him to Portland for Tyrus Thomas and VEEKTOR!, both of whom are now gone. (Thanks, guys!) The signing of Ben Wallace, who instantly aged about twenty years after joining Da Bulls, spelled the beginning of the end. The team tuned out their no-nosense coach and got him fired. (That would be Scott Skiles, now with the Bucks). Team ownership and management were routinely mocked in the press as woefully incompetent.

Sound familiar?

But then, lightning struck. Da Bulls won the lottery a second time, drafting Derrick Rose, who is now the reigning MVP. They struck gold in the coaching market, with Thibs. Other draft picks, such as Joakim Noah, have paid dividends. The Bulls are, once again, an up-and-coming team in the league. Concerns about Rose's health may put a damper on the Bulls' rise, but with him in the line-up, Chicago is one of the league's elite teams. Even though Jerry Reinsdorf still owns the team, nothing breeds competence like success. (Just ask Paul Allen).

What if it happens here?

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As I write this, the New York Knicks are whipping the Blazers at Madison Square Garden. I'm not watching the debacle, but I do check Twitter and ESPN from time to time. The big news items today are rumors of a Jamal Crawford trade, and the resignation of Knicks coach Mike d'Antoni. Which, of course, brings us to the Blazers' coach.

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The Blazers, to say the least, are at a crossroads. In the past several years, the team has lost once franchise player to injury, with another potential franchise player not getting on the court enough to even make his potential talent worth discussing. The team has no GM. The Jekyll/Hyde owner appears to be wearing his Bad Paul hat--indifferent to the team's fortunes, as the front office has acted in a bizarre fashion for the next two years. A season that started off with promise is spiraling out of control. Vultures, some of which have wanted Nate gone for years, are circling the coach. One young forward prospect didn't get a contract extension, causing his agent to pout. The starting SG has been mired in a season-long shooting slump, and the starting point guard has been mired in a season-long sucking slump.

And presently, the team is out of the playoffs.

What to do?

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A couple months ago, I did a post outlining a worst-case scenario for the NBA.  In it, the league splits into several different divisions, roughly based on market size--with the top-drawer talent going to the major NBA markets, and the rest of the league (including Portland) essentially becoming minor-league basketball.  The article made the rec list; though most commenters thought the scenario was far-fetched.

And far-fetched it may still be.  I won't defend the particulars of the arrangement, lots of which was pure speculation and exercise of dramatic license--but with the NBAPA moving to decertify, we're a step closer in that direction.

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One of the interesting bits about the decision by ex-Blazer coach Rick Adelman to accept the head coaching position with the Minnesota Timberwolves, is the general manager--David Kahn.  Long before Kahn became a hack GM in the Twin Cities, he was a hack sportswriter for The Oregonian--and of all the hacks that have worked the sports desk at the O, I can assure you that Kahn was by far the worst; he made John Canzano look like Frank Deford.  (Unfortunately, most of his stuff is located behind paywalls, if you can find it on the Internet at all...)  Younger Blazer fans will have to trust me on this one.

Adleman has made little secret of his dislike for Kahn, which makes his going to Minnesota a bit puzzling.

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Everyone assumes that the worst case scenario for the lockout is that a season is lost, then the players' cave, and back to business as usual, with the players a bit poorer than before.  

Far from it.

While I don't think the following basketball-doomsday scenario will happen, it could.

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Simple question.  If the Blazers' goal is an NBA title, how to get there?

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In the interview with Henry Abbott, the Blogfather has some interesting stuff to say about the controversy surrounding the Blazers' medical staff, and the rash of injuries to key players:

Should Portland's training staff take some blame?

"It's too hard to know. I'll tell you this, man. If I owned an NBA ... How much is it worth? Could you possibly overpay the Suns training staff. They're probably worth -- if they can get Greg Oden playing, give him an extra year of productivity -- they're worth 30 million dollars or something like that. I don't know why you wouldn't put so much money into that. Or Arnie Kander in Detroit. These guys who just know how to get players playing and happy and healthy. They are worth their weight in absolute gold. And I can't understand why they're not just top of the list in coveted NBA personnel."

Like Henry, I don't know.  Phoenix and Detroit's medical staffs are considered the best in the league; Portland's is not. 

Which brings us to the question:  How DOES Portland get a top-notch medical staff, if we assume we don't have one already?

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The Blazers own several NBA records, both good and bad.  One of the most ignoble NBA records was set by the Blazers on Feb 27, 1998, when the scarlet and black went into Indiana (fresh of a defeat of the defending champion Bulls the night before) and got embarrassed by the Pacers, 124-59.   That's right, 124 to 59.  The 65 point victory was the second biggest margin of victory in NBA history (Cleveland beat Miami in 1991 by a score of 148-80), but it was the first--and only--time that one NBA team had doubled up another.  The ratio of victory that evening was 2.1017.

It almost looked as though that record would fall tonight.

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It's been a rough year for the Oregon State football program.  Al Reser, the team's benefactor for whom the stadium is named, dies.  The "three point stance" incident occurs.  The team goes 5-7, missing out on the bowls, and we get to watch our rival play for the BCS Trophy tonight.  And today, of course, brings bad news for OSU's immediate football prospects--Quizz is leaving (see the main page article). 

However, that only affects the Beavs for a single year, as he was going to be a senior, and this post is focused on more long term.

At any rate--Mike Riley has got his work cut out for him.

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The Kamloops Blazers of the Western Hockey League (a longtime rival of the Portland Winterhawks), raised eyeballs yesterday when they banned a local member of the press from talking to team personnel, essentially for being too critical of the team.

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With the recent news about Greg and Brandon's respective knees, and with the Blazers starting the year 7-5, some fans have been suggesting that it's time to Rebuild.  Tear it down and start all over.  Do like was done after 2003, when the JailBlazers young and old were getting bounced in the first round and spending more time in court than on it.

The rationale is tempting.  There's only a handful of cities, of franchises, which have been able to attract the superstar free-agents needed to win titles.  Miami.  Los Angeles,  New York.  Perhaps, the Bulls.  Trader Bob tried to do it with trades--and it  almost worked--but not quite.  (Danny Ainge succeeded with trades, getting a title in Boston, and another Finals appearance last year).   But it seems to be a common view that the real way to build a long-term contender is to build via the draft--and to do that requires getting deep into the lottery--and doing that requires, assuming you can't find some idiot GM to rip off (I'd keep David Kahn's phone number handy, but not count on drawing any water from that well) "rebuilding".

But in case Blazer fans have forgotten what "rebuilding" means, here's a reminder.

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Kelly Dwyer at Ball Don't Lie has a juicy bit on Ben Golliver's recent interview with Jeff Ma, in which he suggests (among other things), that Ma might be jeopardizing future consulting work for the Blazers by publicly trashing the Greg Oden pick.  Dwyer has a few other pointed criticisms for Ma, such as disputing the notion that one broken wrist in college is evidence of an "injury history".  (By now, of course, Oden has such a history, but coming out of tOSU, it's hard to argue that--indeed, playing through an injury and doing so successfully might suggest otherwise...especially since the college injury was on the wrist and not the knees, where Greg has since had problems.

However, a commenter point out something interesting.  The Blazer official who Ma discusses in detail is Kevin Pritchard; not anybody else in management.  Said commenter even goes so far as to suggest that Blazer management might in fact be pleased by Ma's analysis.  And at least one commenter seemed to think (a proposition for which there is no on-record evidence that I'm aware of) that Allen preferred Durant, but deferred to his general manager--but is unwilling to throw Oden under the bus by disavowing the pick. 

It's been suggested by a few KP supporters that KP wanted Durant but was overruled by Allen, and that KP's departure was in part due to one too many "I told you so's".  However, were THIS to be the case, I would have expected it to have leaked out now that Pritchard is no longer a Blazers' employee. 

Interesting.

Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert, after his team got dissed by LeBron, made headlines with his blistering open letter--saying things that many Cavs' fans were thinking (and many fans around the league as well) but which are highly impolitic coming from an NBA owner. 

Of course, the one thing in the letter that made people wonder if Gilbert is off his meds, wasn't the way he blew up any remaining bridges with James.  I suppose it's good to know that an over-the-hill LeBron won't make a Griffey-like return to the Cavs in the twilight of his career--at least not as long as Gilbert is the owner.  The most outrageous part was the promise that Cleveland will win a title before WTHL (Whichever Team Has LeBron) does--kind of a curse-of-the-bambino in reverse.  While this may be good psychology or good voodoo; the analysts beg to differ:  Consensus is that Miami is a favorite to win the title next year, and Cleveland is likely a lottery team. 

But, there's a few things that Gilbert could do to make LeBron's life a bit more miseable:

• Start cleaning house--and just as Minnesota and Memphis provided the Celts and Lakers with title pieces on the cheap; send whatever remaining talent he has left to whichever team poses the biggest threat to Miami, for picks and prospects.  While guys like Jamison and Williams aren't exactly top-drawer talent (and Shaq is well past his prime), in the right situation they might be beneficial.  Trading Mo Williams to the Lakers, for instance--he'd be an excellent backcourt mate for K*be, should the wheels finally fall off of Derek Fischer.  As much as I hate him on another team, I'd take Anderson Varejao on the Blazers should the opportunity arise.  And if KD and the "Thunder" should continue to advance, Shaq might fit in well there, given their present big-man issues.  (Or send him back to Orlando--so HE can do his Griffey stint--to man the middle when Dwight picks up his third with three left in the first quarter).
  
• Completely, and utterly, tank the season.  Don't admit to it of course, but let it be leaked that the the only way for small-market teams to compete is to get lucky in the lottery, and hope the guy going #1 doesn't turn into a total @#!$.
• Band together with other small-market owners (we here in Portland would be happy to help) to demand tighter restrictions on player movement.  Bonus points if the new CBA requires Miami to shed one of their new Big Three.  Also, insist on league tax equity--compensating players in high-tax markets so that it's one less disadvantage for northern states.  (The league used to do this for the Raptors, to alleviate the currency situation back when Canadian dollars were worth far less than the US variety).  Take note of how much success the NFL has with this model.  It can work in the NBA.
  
• Staff the roster with goons.  Given them lots of playing time (hint) when WTHL is in town.
• Find some young hot supermodel/pop star/actress to pull a Toni Braxton on James and Dwyane.
• Start referring to "King Wade" and "Prince James".  Or worse.
• Voodoo dolls.
• Fire up all the factories in town, pump as much carbon in the atmosphere as you can.  Turn Cleveland into Miami weather-wise, and turn Miami into Atlantis.  THEN we'll see how many free agents want to go there.
• Legalize dope in Ohio.  (If California doesn't beat you to it).  Instant free-agent mecca.  :)  And Cavs fans might need some of their own, anyway.
• Consider the longstanding advice for jilted women:  "The best revenge you can take on the woman who steals your husband is to let her have him". 

With the recent news that Utah will soon be joining the Pac-10 (up to 12, now), the league is widely expected to organize into divisions.  Some in the Pacific Northwest don't like the obvious choice (Washington, Oregon, and Bay Area schools in one division, SoCal, Arizona, and Rocky Mountain schools in the other), as it limits regional exposure.

Another possible arrangement is this one; note that all of the traditional rivals are split apart (I assume that traditional rivalries will be maintained, and Utah/Colorado is considered a "traditional rivalry").

Division A:

OSU, WSU, ASU, Cal, Utah, USC

Divisin B:

Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Stanford, Colorado, UCLA

Other arrangements that come to mind?

The recent reports concerning the Kevin Pritchard Saga differ wildly in what they claim, except for two important points:

• Kevin Pritchard's tenure with the Trail Blazers is not going to last much longer.
• As of tonight, however, he's still an employee of the Trail Blazers.

Together, these two points suggest an obvious, three letter question:  WHY?  (There's another three letter acronym that starts with W that works as well, but its use is verboten here...)

And thus, tonight's poll question:  Given all that has gone down in the press, why IS Pritchard still with the team?  The usual way these things are handled is for one side to swing the axe, or the other to hand in a letter--and get it over with quick.  Dragging it out for months Looks Bad.

After the embarassing Game 5 loss to Boston last night at the Q, in which King James stunk up his Court and earned a shower of boos for his efforts (which some think may increase the odds he's gonna bolt--in my mind, he made that decision a long time ago, and what happens this year in the playoffs isn't gonna affect it)--many writers and pundits and fans are now predicting the Death Of Pro Basketball in Cleveland should the reigning MVP sign with another team.

Nonsense.

While LeBron leaving would be devastating to the Cleveland franchise--no doubt about it--the apocalyptic nature of the some of the commentary (such as Bill Simmons' latest) overstates the case.

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The Suns just lowered the broom on San Antonio--settling quite a few scores.  While the Spurs ain't as good as they used to be (and signing Richard Jefferson was a Big Mistake--sorry, Pops, but you can't have our Frenchman), they ain't chopped liver, especially with the main guys healthy.

And the Suns mowed them down like grass--which is even more amazing when you consider that grass won't grow in Phoenix.  It took Phoenix six games to dispose of the Blazers, and that's with all the injuries.

Getting bounced in the first still stinks, but now I don't feel QUITE as bad.  At least we didn't get steamrolled.

Much hay was made, here and elsewhere, on Hollinger's piece on whether or not isolation offenses, such as run by the Hawks and the Trail Blazers, are good in the playoffs.  Hollinger's thesis is no--they're too easy to prepare for in the playoff context, when a team's coaching staff can tailor its defensive schemes to the opponent.  As evidence, he points to the difficulties the Blazers have had this year and last, and the Hawks have had over the years (despite defeating the Bucks in the first round this year).

Others have criticized Hollinger's analysis, mainly on the grounds of insufficient data--noting that last years' Blazers lacked playoff experience, and this years' edition was devastated by injuries.  Whether Hollinger is right or not, I don't know.

The subject has brought many opinions to the table--and quite a few Nate critics have embraced the topic (the comments at Dwight's blog are a chorus of "Fire Nate").  But it's an interesting question.  One of my beliefs about NBA coaching is that a coach should select a system (on offense and defense) which is tailored to his players.  With that in mind, considering the players we have, the question is proposed:

What offense should the Blazers run?

I don't want this thread to turned into a referendum on McMillan--or on past personnel decisions for that matter.

More after the jump.

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