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I'm not generally a big fan of mid-season trade speculation, but it is interesting to look down the list of NBA teams, consider their long term needs, then figure out how Pritch might be able to "help".

Take Dallas.  If they flame out this year, as is likely, they're probably destined to wallow in mediocrity for some years.  I don't see that as an acceptable option for Mr. Cuban.  The Mavs would love to be a player in the 2010 free agent bonanza, but are capped out in the worst way.

The worst offenders for Dallas in 2010 are Dirk ($21.5M), Dampier ($13.1M), and Diop ($6.5M).  If they could clear some of this salary, they could make a run at Wade or Bosh.

When comparing LaMarcus' upside with Dirk's present production, it's hard to see LMA reaching Dirk's level.  Dirk draws 7 FTA's a game, has a high EFG%, and is a pretty solid passer.  Defense would take a hit, though Dirk is beefy enough to slow down a defender in time for Oden or Joel to rotate.  There is some question about Dirk's mental toughness, but as 2nd or 3rd banana, he'd do fine.

Consider a trade of:

     LMA, RLEC, Channing, Jerryd, Ike        for

     Dirk, Dampier

In 2010, starters would look like:

     POR:  Sergio?, Roy, Batum, Dirk, Oden   (huge and dynamic)

     DAL:  Terry, Wade?, Howard, LMA, Diop   (fast and lean)

Not saying this is a good trade per-se, but it would put us in serious contention next season.  Dirk is 30 and probably has three or four solid years left.  Thoughts?

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Ask most fans and pundits what the keys to the Blazer resurgence are and you'll likely hear teamwork and shooting.  Fair enough, but what about the defense?  One measure of defense is "points per shot" allowed.  This is a measure of straight up D; i.e. how easily teams score when they don't turn it over.  Amazingly, the Blazers are 2nd to Boston in this category.  What makes this even more remarkable is that opponents are relatively free of pressure (we're last in steals by a large margin) and don't have to concentrate on offensive rebounding (we're bad on the defensive glass).  Portland plays a relatively small team that doesn't bang.

Watching the Blazers, they don't have the "look" of a great defensive team.  Some of this is attributable to Nate's "stay at home" philosophy, which doesn't generate turnovers from the opposition.  Hard to argue with the effectiveness, despite the lack of fastbreak points.  Those who advocate a pressure defense should realize the strong position we'd be giving up.

I'll confess, I can't figure out how a young, small team of shooters can be effective at forcing teams to be so incredibly inefficient with their possessions.  Does anyone with more knowledge have a theory on this?

I'm struggling to figure out what exactly Channing Frye brings to this team.  In our short preseason, I've observed the following:

He seems to find a way to get open from 18', ala LMA.  Although we haven't seen it, let's assume he'll eventually hit these with regularity.

On offense, seems completely lost in the post.  Despite being 7', his turnaround jumper does not have enough extension to be shot "straight up".  He needs to fade away, which requires athleticism he doesn't have.  He doesn't appear to have a lot of "stuff", such as a drop-step or up-and-under.  His hook shot has little elevation and seems forced.

He is a passive rebounder.  Has a Marcus Camby type build, but doesn't go and get rebounds or fight hard for position.  Perhaps this worked in the East, but the West is full of mobile, active forwards who know how to rebound.  Defensive boards don't automatically go to the seven footer.

Not very active on defense.  Not embarrassing, but allows his man to get comfortable and relies on his height and reach to bother shots.

His floor game is decent.  Not a black hole.  Keeps the ball moving.  Don't ask him to dribble.

Seems to have a good, upbeat court demeanor.  Appears to listen and stay engaged; jumps eagerly off the bench when called.

I'm not sure Frye has the quickness to guard threes or the post skills to take advantage of his height at that position.  He's way too soft for the five spot.  With LMA sliding occasionally to center, he could get 30 minutes at PF if we wanted to keep him on the court.

Is a jumpshooting PF what the Blazers need?  Do we want LMA to backup at center when Oden comes back?  An alternative approach to Frye would be to get a bruiser at backup PF.  A real scowling lunchpail type.  It might be painful to play this person with Joel, so we'd have to be careful how we managed rotations.

I'd like to get others' thoughts.  Is Frye what we want in a frontcourt player?  What do you see as his strengths and weaknesses?

With Greg's surgery 10 days behind us, the shock has begun to wear off.  There has been so much speculation and analysis that it's tough to come up with anything new to add.  Here's a try.

No one knows quite what to expect from a post-microfracture Oden.  Will he be 100%?  90%?  50%?  Let's break down what a 50% Oden might look like.  He would lose some leg strength, but would likely be able to hold his post position well on both ends of the court.  His width, height, and reactions would allow him to frustrate other elite post players and he would still be able to block shots on his own man.  Weak side shot blocking would be confined to areas closer to the hoop.  He would lose some ability to guard out at the free throw line, using his supreme quickness to recover and block the shot of a cutter.  Ten boards a game isn't a stretch, given his bulk, quickness, and skill on the defensive glass.  With the possible inability to make quick, decisive power moves, his offense would suffer.  He could end up with the post game of a Brad Dougherty rather than a Shaq.  Greg has shown an advanced basketball IQ thus far and could be someone who benefits an offense just by touching the ball.  That won't go away.  A 50% Oden is still a top five NBA center and would receive all-star consideration.  He would average 60 games played a year until around age 29, when his effectiveness would begin to deteriorate due to knee wear and tear.

Since Greg's never played in the league, I'm not sure we'd definitively know the difference between a 75% Oden and a 100% Oden.  At 75%, he would be a dominant weak side shot blocker and could average 11 or 12 boards.  His ability to recover defensively would be solid enough to allow the team to opportunistically press.  We wouldn't see as many "wow" blocks, but the intimidation factor wouldn't be hugely diminished.  At 75%, Oden's currently undeveloped post skills would, to some extent, get blamed on lost explosiveness following the surgery when in fact they just need work.  Oden may never be a "number's guy".  His high school numbers were around 20/10 and I'm sure he was completely dominant.  Again, if Greg's NBA numbers end up being 18/10 with 3 blocks, he may be perceived as not having beaten microfracture, when in fact his game may not be stat heavy to begin with.  A 75% Oden misses perhaps 15 games a year with "this and that" and is productive into his thirties.

How likely are these scenarios?  Hard to say.  Amare is the obvious comparison, but Stoudamire is an odd combination of small forward and center.  He makes tons of obscenely quick cuts, followed by explosion to the rim.  Oden's NBA game may be somewhat more decisive, not putting as much strain on the knee from odd angles as does Amare's game.  Not being an orthopedic surgeon, I'm hesitant to handicap the odds of recovery, but it's September, it's slow, so what the heck.  Two years out, Greg has a 40% chance of a ninety percent recovery, a 35% chance of a seventy five percent recovery, a 15% chance of a fifty percent recovery and a 10% chance of, well, let's not go there.

We are very fortunate to have this kid on the team.  Because of his personality (and willingness to share it), we'll be a talked about team.  A "liked" team.  The exposure will sell more Brandon Roy jerseys nationwide than perhaps we expect.  Oden is mom, apple pie, and the flag rolled into one.  We don't have to hold our breath that he might "blow it".  Those "hall of famers" that were offered for Greg?  Other teams would still make the offer and Pritch would still say no.

We have five years to put the right pieces around our big three.  That's a long time.  It's very possible that in that span, every other player currently on the team will leave or be traded.  Look at the Bulls' championship window.  Was there any constant besides Jordan and Pip?  We have years to plug any holes in Oden's game that may have been created from the surgery.  I would put the odds pretty high that Greg sticks around after his rookie contract.  We'll be able to offer him more money and security, which becomes even more important when you've got health questions.  Hopefully he likes Portland and enjoys being able to "hide out" here.

A lot of us are in the dumps right now, worried that we've lost our "shot".  Far from it.  The odds of Oden becoming a star center, regardless of what he "might have been" are strong.  Stars are made in the playoffs and the playoffs will see a lot of Greg Oden.

Kneegate got me to thinking about some of the thorny legal issues surrounding medical treatment in pro sports:

If a player declined to have necessary surgery, does the team have any legal options with regard to his contract?

Employers are required to make "reasonable accommodation" for an employee's medical condition.  Does this mean an injured player can demand to play fewer minutes?  Or refuse to run certain plays?

If the team demotes a player's role based on medical concerns, how is that different than the protections granted to the careers of pregnant women or those undergoing cancer treatment?

If a player decided to invoke his right of medical privacy, could he simply say he doesn't want the public to know of his medical condition?  Does he waive his rights as part of his NBA contract?  Can these rights even be signed away?  Can a player disappear for a year without the team being able to say why?

Can a player request "workplace accommodation" from his team without revealing to his employer the nature of his medical problem?

Are NBA players subject to the FMLA (Family Medical Leave Act)?  Can they take off six weeks (unpaid) with the legal stipulation that they be able to return to their old job without a decrease in responsibility?  What if they get demoted to the bench on return?

If a Golden State player, living in San Francisco, uses medical marijuana, can the NBA take punitive action?

If a team doesn't want to sign a 35 year old superstar to a 6 year deal, how is that not age discrimination?  (I believe legal protections kick in at 40)

If there were no guaranteed contracts, would there be any legal implications for teams to say "you play 40 minutes a game on that bum knee or you're outta here"?

Most of these are hypothetical, as NBA players are typically very competitive individuals and don't want to be seen as otherwise.  Still, does anyone know how pro sports teams get around these hairy issues?

In trying times, it's helpful to search for things you're thankful for.  Going through this, I discovered it's quite a list:

The Blazers are staying in Portland

We have Kevin Pritchard in the right position and the "culture" HAS changed

The relationship with the media has improved immeasurably

The Blazers have players who give fun, listenable interviews

Paul Allen has shown the willingness to spend whatever necessary to win.  From all reports, the guy is stoked.

The JailBlazer era is officially over.  We have 14 players with character and one marginalized headcase.

Brandon Roy will serve up opponents hearts on a plate for the next decade.  He will do this with a smile and proactive leadership.

The team showed up 5 WEEKS EARLY.  This never happens.

The team's blueprint is proven.  Franchise center, a distributor, and the potential for great defense and an inside-out game.  Championships are built from this formula.

Aldridge has shown all-star potential and seems like a great guy.

Rudy's already bought his ticket to PDX

We get to read Oden's blog

Our core players have "real game"; they're not just stat-men

Nate

Expectations are high, which is it's own blessing

The team has quite a few tradable assets

The Rose Garden is getting a fancy new scoreboard and video screen

We're no longer waiting for the light to come on with Z-Bo

The cold, dispassionate, statistically most likely scenario with Oden allows him to be a top 2 NBA center in 5 years.

Without deluding ourselves, we can see the path to a championship

At least 24 teams would gladly swap their roster straight up with ours, even post microfracture.

Summer of '09.  Anybody want to win?  Come to Portland.

Look where we were 15 months ago:
http://www.basketballreference.com/teams/teamyear.htm?tm=POR&lg=n&yr=2005
Wow.

Please chime in with anything thankful you'd like to add.

An update from the Columbian:

http://www.columbian.com/sports/blazerbanter/

Summary:

Darius is at 231 lbs.  He's cleared to run and will likely be able to practice by November.

Everyone is at pre-camp except Sergio (Euro playoffs) and Pryz (will be here next week).

LMA is 100%.  The heel is fine - no lingering effects.