Watching the KP debacle unfold, I got to thinking about how much power a GM really has.  There's been a mythology built around the "horse trader".  You know, the guy who hoodwinks or bullies other GMs into lopsided deals.  Somehow, through Jedi mind tricks or startling charisma, stealing valuable players and picks from naive teams.

Gets one to thinking.  An NBA trade is a contract with provisions that are generally only a few lines.  At any one time, a GM can target a particular player (to stay or go), have a flunky run a cap analysis, and generate a report of possible trades.  Cross off ones that aren't win-win in at least some remote capacity.  Float these trades to the applicable GMs.

On the receiving end, as a GM, you evaluate these trade proposals for merit, choose a couple to consider, and negotiate.  At this point, the negotiating room isn't usually that wide.

So, what's the skill of the GM?  Not to communicate the value of his players.  Who would bother to listen?  To float rumors?  I doubt GMs are reading the paper to see where teams stand.  To squeeze the best deal?  Sure, but it's a fair competition between your offers and the offers of other teams.

At the end of the day, it seems like the good GMs balance "culture", style of play, injury risk, etc.  But how much of this comes from the GM?  GMs come and go, while scouts, trainers, team surgeons, etc. outlast them.  Is a GM watching thousands of hours of NCAA games?  Going to Spain?  Learning to read an MRI?

I'd submit that a GM doesn't matter as much as we think.  They're at the mercy of the roster, draft position, owner's whims, pressure to win now, and most of all, the staff they rely on.

===========

At the risk of combining two unrelated topics, I'd like to postulate that some poor player PR is the fault of management.  Greg Oden not coming to games, for instance.  Of all the people who determine where Greg is on game day, I'd think Greg himself would be down the list.  "Greg, we're paying you $8M this year, we need you to sit courtside with the team".  Do you think they really care what he thinks about it?  Similar issue with perceived intensity.  How many agents have really sat their clients down and said "I can get you $10M extra on your next deal in exchange for two fist pumps and one towel wave a game"?

Continue reading this post »

I'm not generally a big fan of mid-season trade speculation, but it is interesting to look down the list of NBA teams, consider their long term needs, then figure out how Pritch might be able to "help".

Take Dallas.  If they flame out this year, as is likely, they're probably destined to wallow in mediocrity for some years.  I don't see that as an acceptable option for Mr. Cuban.  The Mavs would love to be a player in the 2010 free agent bonanza, but are capped out in the worst way.

The worst offenders for Dallas in 2010 are Dirk ($21.5M), Dampier ($13.1M), and Diop ($6.5M).  If they could clear some of this salary, they could make a run at Wade or Bosh.

When comparing LaMarcus' upside with Dirk's present production, it's hard to see LMA reaching Dirk's level.  Dirk draws 7 FTA's a game, has a high EFG%, and is a pretty solid passer.  Defense would take a hit, though Dirk is beefy enough to slow down a defender in time for Oden or Joel to rotate.  There is some question about Dirk's mental toughness, but as 2nd or 3rd banana, he'd do fine.

Consider a trade of:

     LMA, RLEC, Channing, Jerryd, Ike        for

     Dirk, Dampier

In 2010, starters would look like:

     POR:  Sergio?, Roy, Batum, Dirk, Oden   (huge and dynamic)

     DAL:  Terry, Wade?, Howard, LMA, Diop   (fast and lean)

Not saying this is a good trade per-se, but it would put us in serious contention next season.  Dirk is 30 and probably has three or four solid years left.  Thoughts?

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

Ask most fans and pundits what the keys to the Blazer resurgence are and you'll likely hear teamwork and shooting.  Fair enough, but what about the defense?  One measure of defense is "points per shot" allowed.  This is a measure of straight up D; i.e. how easily teams score when they don't turn it over.  Amazingly, the Blazers are 2nd to Boston in this category.  What makes this even more remarkable is that opponents are relatively free of pressure (we're last in steals by a large margin) and don't have to concentrate on offensive rebounding (we're bad on the defensive glass).  Portland plays a relatively small team that doesn't bang.

Watching the Blazers, they don't have the "look" of a great defensive team.  Some of this is attributable to Nate's "stay at home" philosophy, which doesn't generate turnovers from the opposition.  Hard to argue with the effectiveness, despite the lack of fastbreak points.  Those who advocate a pressure defense should realize the strong position we'd be giving up.

I'll confess, I can't figure out how a young, small team of shooters can be effective at forcing teams to be so incredibly inefficient with their possessions.  Does anyone with more knowledge have a theory on this?

I'm struggling to figure out what exactly Channing Frye brings to this team.  In our short preseason, I've observed the following:

He seems to find a way to get open from 18', ala LMA.  Although we haven't seen it, let's assume he'll eventually hit these with regularity.

On offense, seems completely lost in the post.  Despite being 7', his turnaround jumper does not have enough extension to be shot "straight up".  He needs to fade away, which requires athleticism he doesn't have.  He doesn't appear to have a lot of "stuff", such as a drop-step or up-and-under.  His hook shot has little elevation and seems forced.

He is a passive rebounder.  Has a Marcus Camby type build, but doesn't go and get rebounds or fight hard for position.  Perhaps this worked in the East, but the West is full of mobile, active forwards who know how to rebound.  Defensive boards don't automatically go to the seven footer.

Not very active on defense.  Not embarrassing, but allows his man to get comfortable and relies on his height and reach to bother shots.

His floor game is decent.  Not a black hole.  Keeps the ball moving.  Don't ask him to dribble.

Seems to have a good, upbeat court demeanor.  Appears to listen and stay engaged; jumps eagerly off the bench when called.

I'm not sure Frye has the quickness to guard threes or the post skills to take advantage of his height at that position.  He's way too soft for the five spot.  With LMA sliding occasionally to center, he could get 30 minutes at PF if we wanted to keep him on the court.

Is a jumpshooting PF what the Blazers need?  Do we want LMA to backup at center when Oden comes back?  An alternative approach to Frye would be to get a bruiser at backup PF.  A real scowling lunchpail type.  It might be painful to play this person with Joel, so we'd have to be careful how we managed rotations.

I'd like to get others' thoughts.  Is Frye what we want in a frontcourt player?  What do you see as his strengths and weaknesses?

With Greg's surgery 10 days behind us, the shock has begun to wear off.  There has been so much speculation and analysis that it's tough to come up with anything new to add.  Here's a try.

No one knows quite what to expect from a post-microfracture Oden.  Will he be 100%?  90%?  50%?  Let's break down what a 50% Oden might look like.  He would lose some leg strength, but would likely be able to hold his post position well on both ends of the court.  His width, height, and reactions would allow him to frustrate other elite post players and he would still be able to block shots on his own man.  Weak side shot blocking would be confined to areas closer to the hoop.  He would lose some ability to guard out at the free throw line, using his supreme quickness to recover and block the shot of a cutter.  Ten boards a game isn't a stretch, given his bulk, quickness, and skill on the defensive glass.  With the possible inability to make quick, decisive power moves, his offense would suffer.  He could end up with the post game of a Brad Dougherty rather than a Shaq.  Greg has shown an advanced basketball IQ thus far and could be someone who benefits an offense just by touching the ball.  That won't go away.  A 50% Oden is still a top five NBA center and would receive all-star consideration.  He would average 60 games played a year until around age 29, when his effectiveness would begin to deteriorate due to knee wear and tear.

Since Greg's never played in the league, I'm not sure we'd definitively know the difference between a 75% Oden and a 100% Oden.  At 75%, he would be a dominant weak side shot blocker and could average 11 or 12 boards.  His ability to recover defensively would be solid enough to allow the team to opportunistically press.  We wouldn't see as many "wow" blocks, but the intimidation factor wouldn't be hugely diminished.  At 75%, Oden's currently undeveloped post skills would, to some extent, get blamed on lost explosiveness following the surgery when in fact they just need work.  Oden may never be a "number's guy".  His high school numbers were around 20/10 and I'm sure he was completely dominant.  Again, if Greg's NBA numbers end up being 18/10 with 3 blocks, he may be perceived as not having beaten microfracture, when in fact his game may not be stat heavy to begin with.  A 75% Oden misses perhaps 15 games a year with "this and that" and is productive into his thirties.

How likely are these scenarios?  Hard to say.  Amare is the obvious comparison, but Stoudamire is an odd combination of small forward and center.  He makes tons of obscenely quick cuts, followed by explosion to the rim.  Oden's NBA game may be somewhat more decisive, not putting as much strain on the knee from odd angles as does Amare's game.  Not being an orthopedic surgeon, I'm hesitant to handicap the odds of recovery, but it's September, it's slow, so what the heck.  Two years out, Greg has a 40% chance of a ninety percent recovery, a 35% chance of a seventy five percent recovery, a 15% chance of a fifty percent recovery and a 10% chance of, well, let's not go there.

We are very fortunate to have this kid on the team.  Because of his personality (and willingness to share it), we'll be a talked about team.  A "liked" team.  The exposure will sell more Brandon Roy jerseys nationwide than perhaps we expect.  Oden is mom, apple pie, and the flag rolled into one.  We don't have to hold our breath that he might "blow it".  Those "hall of famers" that were offered for Greg?  Other teams would still make the offer and Pritch would still say no.

We have five years to put the right pieces around our big three.  That's a long time.  It's very possible that in that span, every other player currently on the team will leave or be traded.  Look at the Bulls' championship window.  Was there any constant besides Jordan and Pip?  We have years to plug any holes in Oden's game that may have been created from the surgery.  I would put the odds pretty high that Greg sticks around after his rookie contract.  We'll be able to offer him more money and security, which becomes even more important when you've got health questions.  Hopefully he likes Portland and enjoys being able to "hide out" here.

A lot of us are in the dumps right now, worried that we've lost our "shot".  Far from it.  The odds of Oden becoming a star center, regardless of what he "might have been" are strong.  Stars are made in the playoffs and the playoffs will see a lot of Greg Oden.

Kneegate got me to thinking about some of the thorny legal issues surrounding medical treatment in pro sports:

If a player declined to have necessary surgery, does the team have any legal options with regard to his contract?

Employers are required to make "reasonable accommodation" for an employee's medical condition.  Does this mean an injured player can demand to play fewer minutes?  Or refuse to run certain plays?

If the team demotes a player's role based on medical concerns, how is that different than the protections granted to the careers of pregnant women or those undergoing cancer treatment?

If a player decided to invoke his right of medical privacy, could he simply say he doesn't want the public to know of his medical condition?  Does he waive his rights as part of his NBA contract?  Can these rights even be signed away?  Can a player disappear for a year without the team being able to say why?

Can a player request "workplace accommodation" from his team without revealing to his employer the nature of his medical problem?

Are NBA players subject to the FMLA (Family Medical Leave Act)?  Can they take off six weeks (unpaid) with the legal stipulation that they be able to return to their old job without a decrease in responsibility?  What if they get demoted to the bench on return?

If a Golden State player, living in San Francisco, uses medical marijuana, can the NBA take punitive action?

If a team doesn't want to sign a 35 year old superstar to a 6 year deal, how is that not age discrimination?  (I believe legal protections kick in at 40)

If there were no guaranteed contracts, would there be any legal implications for teams to say "you play 40 minutes a game on that bum knee or you're outta here"?

Most of these are hypothetical, as NBA players are typically very competitive individuals and don't want to be seen as otherwise.  Still, does anyone know how pro sports teams get around these hairy issues?

In trying times, it's helpful to search for things you're thankful for.  Going through this, I discovered it's quite a list:

The Blazers are staying in Portland

We have Kevin Pritchard in the right position and the "culture" HAS changed

The relationship with the media has improved immeasurably

The Blazers have players who give fun, listenable interviews

Paul Allen has shown the willingness to spend whatever necessary to win.  From all reports, the guy is stoked.

The JailBlazer era is officially over.  We have 14 players with character and one marginalized headcase.

Brandon Roy will serve up opponents hearts on a plate for the next decade.  He will do this with a smile and proactive leadership.

The team showed up 5 WEEKS EARLY.  This never happens.

The team's blueprint is proven.  Franchise center, a distributor, and the potential for great defense and an inside-out game.  Championships are built from this formula.

Aldridge has shown all-star potential and seems like a great guy.

Rudy's already bought his ticket to PDX

We get to read Oden's blog

Our core players have "real game"; they're not just stat-men

Nate

Expectations are high, which is it's own blessing

The team has quite a few tradable assets

The Rose Garden is getting a fancy new scoreboard and video screen

We're no longer waiting for the light to come on with Z-Bo

The cold, dispassionate, statistically most likely scenario with Oden allows him to be a top 2 NBA center in 5 years.

Without deluding ourselves, we can see the path to a championship

At least 24 teams would gladly swap their roster straight up with ours, even post microfracture.

Summer of '09.  Anybody want to win?  Come to Portland.

Look where we were 15 months ago:
http://www.basketballreference.com/teams/teamyear.htm?tm=POR&lg=n&yr=2005
Wow.

Please chime in with anything thankful you'd like to add.

An update from the Columbian:

http://www.columbian.com/sports/blazerbanter/

Summary:

Darius is at 231 lbs.  He's cleared to run and will likely be able to practice by November.

Everyone is at pre-camp except Sergio (Euro playoffs) and Pryz (will be here next week).

LMA is 100%.  The heel is fine - no lingering effects.

I'm in the enviable position of helping my company pick out seats for Blazer season tickets.  The seats we're looking at are in the corner - behind the basket to the left or the right side.  This brought up an interesting basketball point: All other factors being equal, which side of the court is the more interesting for this Blazer squad?

I'm thinking the left (as seen by the PG bringing the ball up) side would be best, since it's where many of the great post up players like to work.  On the other hand, most drives by right handers end up finishing on the right side.  I didn't watch that many Ohio State games - which side does Oden prefer?  In summer league, he didn't seem to show a strong preference.  LMA seems like a left block guy.  Many of the classic pick-n-roll combos (Stockton/Malone, etc.) liked to start the play from the left side.

I'm sure there's a consensus among NBA aficionados on which side is best.  Any opinions?

Poll

Which side of the court (as seen from the point guard) is the most interesting?

63%

Get a beer and a life and just enjoy the game

19 votes

23%

Left side

7 votes

13%

Right side

4 votes

30 votes | Poll has closed

I think we all agree that if the trio of Roy, Aldridge and Oden all max their potential, the Blazers will be a great, perhaps transcendent team.  But, suppose they don't?  This could happen in a number of ways: injuries, complacency, lack of talent, personal issues, trade demands, etc.  As an exercise, let's assume each individually has an 85% chance of becoming the player we hope for - pretty high odds.  Math geeks will note that the odds of hitting the "trifecta" would be 0.85*0.85*0.85 or 61%.  That's a 39% chance that at least one of the big three doesn't end up meeting expectations.  If we give each a 70% chance of reaching their potential, that translates into a 66% chance of an "underachiever" in the big three.

Sure, we can probably live with one of Brandon, LMA, or Greg not becoming a full fledged star, but two of them?  Scary thought.  Any math folks care to calculate the odds of this happening?  Certainly we don't want to entertain the thought of Roy's career taking a Grant Hill turn or the thought of Oden's jump hook never looking any better than it did in summer league.

Bottom line: We have a fantastic, almost unique opportunity for everything to come together perfectly, but we should also be conscious of the fact that our days of needing some good luck aren't over yet.

This is a tough post to write since, like most here, I have affection for all the players on the squad, even the 11th and 12th guys.  That said, the Blazers have too many players.  Or, I should say, too many fringe players - those that couldn't find a way to contribute much to a struggling team, which was us last year.  It's way too early to be trying to fill bench holes for our 2010 run.  We should be looking for a fourth piece of the core.  Now.

To get this fourth cog, I would consider every member of the team outside of the big 3 to be expendable.  We should be looking to trade quantity for quality.  Portland's tradable assets are Jack, Sergio, Jones, Outlaw, Webster, Frye, Pryzbilla.  Not to mention future draft picks.  If a team would give us a core player, or high draft pick (top 5) for any combination of these assets, we should jump on it.  All of the players listed are replaceable.  Most won't be on the team in 3 years, for one reason or another.

This core piece should be a PG, SG, or SF, starting material, and be 28 or under.  Obviously, teams don't let these players get away, so a sign-and-trade for a disgruntled star might be necessary.

Bottom line: Let's not overvalue our non-core players, especially those that back up Roy, LMA, or Oden.  For even a modest star, we should be willing to part with ANY combination that doesn't include the big 3.  Depth is useless when you're three years away.

Thoughts?

From Mike Barrett's blog:

http://mikebarrettsblog.blogspot.com/

Good explanation of the necessity of waiting to announce the trade as well as some cap trivia that most of us are already aware of.

ODEN TONSILS OUCH 300 ODEN TONSILS OUCH 300 ODEN TONSILS OUCH 300 ODEN TONSILS OUCH 300 ODEN TONSILS OUCH 300 ODEN TONSILS OUCH 300 ODEN TONSILS OUCH 300 ODEN TONSILS OUCH 300

DraftExpress just put up an in depth analysis of the Blazers roster and salary cap situation:

http://www.draftexpress.com/blogs.php?blogid=12

Discussed are current assets, prospects, expiring contracts, free agency, etc.  Worth a read.

FWIW, DraftExpress was one of the last major mock drafts to show Durant at #1.  They switched to Oden about 10 days ago.

Before I go any further, a disclaimer:  I rarely gamble and consider it generally socially harmful.  I don't want this great website to devolve into sports handicapping.

That said, the betting lines on Oden/Durant are interesting.  I don't know gambling terms, but you can bet on the more likely outcome (Oden) with a 106.67% payout or the longshot (Durant) with a 900% payout.  Prior to the workouts, the Durant payout was 1200%, so his workout did manage to move the needle somewhat.

For kicks, I placed a $20 bet on Durant at http://www.sportsbetting.com.  If he's selected, I'll get $180 back.  The site seems legit with appropriate safeguards, etc.

Pritchard's "smokescreen" isn't fooling the oddsmakers.  I was very surprised they don't give Durant more of a chance.

If, like me, you're a wreck with nervous anticipation waiting to find out which player you're going to be watching for the next 15 years, consider this some soothing medicine.  The odds on the site above seem to be updated daily and and don't require registration to view.  If you don't already have enough information to obsess over, here's another piece...

My girlfriend (of all people) found this.  If you have Comcast digital cable, there are 5 minute clips and analysis available for most of the likely first-rounders.  On your remote, select:

1. On-Demand
   
2. Sports & Fitness
   
3. NBA TV
   
4. NBA Draft
   
5. Player Profiles
   
6. Select your player

Enjoy!

So, we're sitting around next Thursday.  It's 4:42pm.  David Stern walks to the podium.  "With the first pick in the 2007 NBA draft, the Portland Trailblazers select...(pause)...Greg Oden from Ohio State University".  At this moment, we still don't know if Oden's our guy - we could still be planning to swap the pick with the Sonics.

Last year, before draft tipoff, there was a lot of buzz about the Portland/Chicago deal.  It was heavily speculated that Aldridge was our guy.  Not a whole lot of drama.

Here's hoping KP has some ounce of human decency to say "yup, Greg's our guy - we're keeping him" immediately after the pick.  I'd hate to be munching cheetos watching stiffs from Bulgaria get picked in the 2nd round - then, boom, welcome Kevin Durant.

Any thoughts on when we'll KNOW?  Should I plan on buying an extra case of beer?  Maybe some tranquilizers?  Both?

Poll

When will we KNOW?

25%

Later in the draft

9 votes

13%

After July 1st and sign and trades can happen

5 votes

2%

Pritchard shows his hand before draft day

1 votes

2%

First regular season game

1 votes

16%

Day of the draft, before the pick is announced

6 votes

38%

Pritchard makes an announcement between picks #1 and #2

14 votes

36 votes | Poll has closed

Lest we ever be unthankful for the position we're in, imagine:

PG: Jack, Telfair
SG: Dixon, Webster
SF: Khyapa, Outlaw, McDarius (injured)
PF: A hobbled Randolph, Tyrus Thomas
C: Ratliff
+ the #7 pick in the 2007 draft

GM: Steve Patterson
Owner: Clay Bennett

If not for the events of the past year, we could be looking at close to that very lineup.  Are there any parallels for the fortunes of a franchise turning around so quickly?

Ahh, the great coincidences of life.  The first year I can afford half-season nosebleeds, the Blazers get the #1.  So, I'm contemplating joining the Mongol hoards and giving season tickets a whirl.

There are several aspects of the whole process that are unclear from the web site.  I'm posting these as a diary in hopes that any answers given might be useful to others.

The big question:  The Rose Garden hosts game 7 of the 2011/12 NBA finals.  As a season ticket holder, are you 100% guaranteed of a ticket to the game?  How about as a half-season holder?  Every NBA team's website has mumbo-jumbo about playoff priority, etc.  What's the bottom line?

Is there danger of your seats being reclassified?  i.e. I buy seats in the Red section and next year, whoops, they're now Purple at twice the price?

Other than random swag giveaways, is there any downside to buying a half-season?

Any other gotchas in the whole process?

So, cutting to the chase: Does buying a half-season pair of nosebleed seats for $400 and renewing every year, albeit at an increasing price, guarantee a seat at the big show?

So, knowing David Stern the little bit that we do, it's reasonable to guess how his May 22nd went.  At 5:52pm PDT, we can be pretty sure it was "Oh, crap".  At 5:53, I'm sure it was "how are we going to make the best of this".

NBA execs know there's a non-trivial possibility of the Blazers becoming an NBA dynasty.  If we can be sure of one thing - it's that they don't want the Spurs part 2.

Does the NBA fire up the hype machine for Portland?  If they don't start early and with full force, they risk a "boring", small market team hogging valuable playoff limelight.

Ahh, but who doesn't remember the Orlando Magic circa 1994.  Up and coming team in a small market.  A truely annoying amount of hype came the Magic's way.  Whether it was centrally planned or due to Shaq's charisma, it worked.  People bought Magic jerseys, the players became known, and the team became identified with the NBA.  More people remember Nick Anderson than will remember Bruce Bowen.

It seems reasonable for the NBA machine to hype Portland at this time.  If they don't, they've got the Spurs all over again.  When they start, companies are going to look for an angle to promote Portland players.  How about an aged looking Oden saying to LeBron "look son, let me tell you how we did it in my time"?

All of this begs a sensitive question:  Are the Blazers too clean cut to be marketable?  No Iverson bullet wounds, Carmello cop comments, etc.  Just not a lot of street cred with this crew.  Still, if the NBA has the will, an angle will be found.

My guess?  The NBA and the networks will see the writing on the wall and you'll start seeing the hype machine warm up as early as this year.  The first impression will be critical to the casual fan.

Does this seem reasonable?

Poll

What's the national image of the 2009-10 Blazers?

27%

Oden's a cool cat and Roy can date my daughter. Nice to see that the NBA cleans up well.

16 votes

50%

Man, I love watching Portland. When's the next national TV game?

29 votes

5%

Don't they have a lot of problem players?

3 votes

17%

Yawn, the Blazer's again. I wish they'd get knocked out earlier.

10 votes

58 votes | Poll has closed

If it's Oden and we trade Zach, we still have some unknowns:

How good is LMA's post game?

Is Brandon a PG?

Is Sergio a flash in the pan?

How will Jack develop?

Is Martell or Outlaw a long term answer at SF?

How quickly will Oden's offensive game progress?

Do we need slashing or just shooting from the SF spot?

Maybe it's not worth it to peer too deeply into our Crystal ball.  Absent Zach, we will know a ton more about our own players in a year (or two) than we do now.

We can plan for these unknowns in a few ways:

Try to fill obvious holes right away (Rashard Lewis, etc.)

Trade with the intent of being well below the cap as soon as Raef is off the books

Trade for future draft picks

Some teams that want or need to win now and might give up a 2008 or 2009 pick in a Zach deal:

Atlanta (just needs some wins)

Boston (Pierce ain't getting any younger)

Milwaukee (upgrade from Villanueva, don't want to get stuck for years in 40 win territory)

Charlotte (Sean May might not be the answer at PF.  Bobcats might think they're a piece away.)

Sacramento (Hole at PF)

It's a risk, as Zach could well make an Eastern team enough better that the pick would be in the 7-10 range.  We could structure it such that we get two future picks or reserve the right to swap picks.

Either way, future picks are tradable assets.  It might not hurt Portland to operate with a "thin" roster for a couple years to evaluate where we're truly at and see who might be available for the mid-level exception.

So, how about it - Zach for some so-so players plus a future pick or two?

While it's fun to debate who the pick SHOULD be, I'm curious as to the resources we can tap to determine who the pick WILL be.  Some ideas:

Rumors coming out of individual workouts.  Jason Quick peeking through the blinds kind of stuff.

Offhand statements by current Blazer players.  You KNOW they'll be calling Pritchard wanting reassurance that their role is safe.

Statements by Oden and Durant themselves.

Chicago pre-draft camp.  Not sure why Oden or Durant would bother attending.

Pre-draft combines.  If Durant is really 6'8.5" or Oden is slow down the court.

Futures markets.  Is anyone betting on this?  If so, where?  If not, why not?

Columnist tripe such as "sources closes to Pritchard say..."

Trades (unlikely)

Developments in the Sonics situation (making them more or less likely to commit to salary)

Growing consensus either way.  This horse has only been beaten for 24 hours.  It might die.

Darius Miles gets an exorcism and a stomach staple and makes us all forget about KD.

I'm very much interested in what others would add to this list.  Five weeks is a long time to be hanging around having the same conversations.  Maalox will do a good business in Portland.

My gut is 75% chance Oden ends up a Blazer.  Half the KD chatter is genuine, half is just to stir the pot and keep things interesting.

So, that said, how are we going to handicap this race?