SB Nation User Blog: Engineering Problem

First seek to understand, then be understood

Engineering Problem — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 07:45:26 -0000

I love this quote and feel it's applicable to the situation we now find ourselves in. It's easy to second guess decisions, shots, and game strategy. There are a lot of angry threads right now, but I'm going to start this one with the assumption that Nate, 4th in NBA coach of the year voting, knows perhaps slightly more about the game than myself, who comes in armed with a HDTV, cheetos, and a pickup game that's basically Steve Kerr without the jumper. Here it goes:

Rudy should have played more: Maybe this had something to do with zero rebounds and ineffective D? Rudy has to be set up - he doesn't get shots by accident. Perhaps Nate felt LMA wouldn't get off running those sets. Could it have to do with not wanting to put the too many eggs in the 3 ball?

Trout should have been benched: Wasn't this guy in the running for 6th man? Isn't his specialty running up points when regular offense breaks down? I'm not a huge fan of +/-, but he did lead the team with +13. I'm going to guess that Nate didn't want to bench his third leading scorer on a night where his D isn't a liability (Artest never really got it going).

Blake should have passed to Rudy: Blake generally has excellent shot selection. Maybe he was just feelin' it at that moment. Rudy either gets a quick shot or needs help from bigs to get open. The circumstances of that play didn't allow for either.

LaMarcus should take it inside more: Hmm, by all accounts, LMA is a ferocious worker and pretty hard on himself. Doesn't seem like someone who would loaf his way into poor post position. Perhaps Scola, with his greasy locks and stooped posture, is actually effective at denying position? Maybe LMA needs to get stronger?

Greg needs to foul less: Maybe Nate isn't worried too much about the fouls, as long as he has 48 minutes of effective center play. Is it possible the disorganized havoc that extends in a 6' radius around Greg is worth the fouls? There's also the observation that most every good defensive center was a foul machine at the outset.

My point is, there's a whole lot that we don't know and should seek to understand. If you have explanations for the various Blazers' strategies, please share them below.

Go Blazers!

Do the Mavs have anything we want?

Engineering Problem — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 23:53:23 -0000

I'm not generally a big fan of mid-season trade speculation, but it is interesting to look down the list of NBA teams, consider their long term needs, then figure out how Pritch might be able to "help".

Take Dallas. If they flame out this year, as is likely, they're probably destined to wallow in mediocrity for some years. I don't see that as an acceptable option for Mr. Cuban. The Mavs would love to be a player in the 2010 free agent bonanza, but are capped out in the worst way.

The worst offenders for Dallas in 2010 are Dirk ($21.5M), Dampier ($13.1M), and Diop ($6.5M). If they could clear some of this salary, they could make a run at Wade or Bosh.

When comparing LaMarcus' upside with Dirk's present production, it's hard to see LMA reaching Dirk's level. Dirk draws 7 FTA's a game, has a high EFG%, and is a pretty solid passer. Defense would take a hit, though Dirk is beefy enough to slow down a defender in time for Oden or Joel to rotate. There is some question about Dirk's mental toughness, but as 2nd or 3rd banana, he'd do fine.

Consider a trade of:

LMA, RLEC, Channing, Jerryd, Ike for

Dirk, Dampier

In 2010, starters would look like:

POR: Sergio?, Roy, Batum, Dirk, Oden (huge and dynamic)

DAL: Terry, Wade?, Howard, LMA, Diop (fast and lean)

Not saying this is a good trade per-se, but it would put us in serious contention next season. Dirk is 30 and probably has three or four solid years left. Thoughts?

101 reasons to be Thankful

Engineering Problem — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 23:11:09 -0000

In no particular order:

1. The Blazers are staying in Portland

2. Brandon Roy’s leadership, heart, and championship mettle

3. The $5 “super” nachos (w/jalapenos) at the Rose Garden

4. Theo (the guy who plays guitar and sings outside the arena)

5. Red, black, and white are a manly combination

6. $10 tan section seats

7. The biggest Blazers fan there ever was or ever will be: The guy in the aisle seat in section 329 with the headband and Rip City jacket.

8. Being able to honestly say you watched a lot of games during the “bad years”

9. The national media murmuring about the rumbling Blazer freight train off in the distance

10. The “out of frustration” once a game leveling of a pick-n-roll defender by Joel

11. Steven A. Smith’s “total waste of my time” comments during the 2006 draft

12. The “dead tree” media’s fascination with the Blazers

13. Being guaranteed playoff seats with a half-season package

14. The moment when #6 came up Milwaukee

15. Rudy’s ability to maintain a beard length of exactly 45 hours at all times

16. Roy’s ability to break ankles at will

17. The glimpses we’re seeing of why Greg was touted as a “once-in-a-generation” center

18. The fact that we don’t have Ricky Davis, Larry Hughes, or Antoine Walker on our team.

19. The fact that the Blazers picked fresh blood over a retread when looking for a GM

20. Batum, for allowing us to spot the phony that pronounces it “bay-tumm”

21. The lack of “stat hogs” on the team

22. LaMarcus’ scary accuracy (until late) from 18’

23. The air of dignity Larry Miller lends to the franchise

24. The fact that we never really found out what was wrong with Joel’s groin

25. The Shonz

26. The loose change to be found in Greg’s furrowed brow

27. Antonio Harvey getting a little bit better each year

28. HDTV

29. The knowledge that we’re on the way up, we have a long ways to go, and that “up” could be plenty high.

30. “Rudy does more than score. He assists. He passes. He steals.”

31. We don’t have the frilly uniforms some teams have adopted

32. The MAX ride home after a big win

33. The fact that Pritch doesn’t seem to have the DNA to get fat and happy

34. Microsoft Windows and Office Suite, but only because they’re paying Blazer salaries

35. Nate, for his astonishing lack of smarminess

36. The stories of team camaraderie on the road

37. The spending power we’ll get in the summer of 2009

38. Jay Jenson, who probably didn’t plan for this much overtime

39. The guy who invented microfracture

40. The awkwardness it feels when a national announcer refers to Rudy as “Fernandez”

41. Wheels’ ability to make the game easy to visualize

42. Watching penetrating guards say, “uh, maybe not” when Greg’s in the game

43. Phoenix, for selling us a worthless #24 pick

44. Kevin McHale and Danny Ainge for providing us with Brandon Roy

45. Brandon, isolated against his defender, with 6 seconds on the clock

46. Players who you don’t cringe when they’re interviewed

47. Knowing you’re probably going to win a close game

48. Roy being so good that he can get you an “invisible” 20/5/5

49. Blake, for running Nate’s system to perfection

50. Sergio to Rudy for the “what the hell was that?!?!”

51. The guy who designed the backboard and stanchion, who’s watching Greg play and wondering if he’s going to be getting a phone call

52. The way the net swishes, unlike any other player, when Rudy hits a three

53. Knowing that a wide open Blake means 3 points more often than not

54. Greg, for teasing us with an “almost afro”, before shaving it down

55. Jerryd for demonstrating the angry passion of youth

56. 82 televised games (for some of us)

57. Sergio, for not allowing himself to be completely broken by Nate’s system

58. Watching Martell’s stoke and being surprised that they don’t all go in

59. Greg’s surprising free throw shooting

60. Trout, for not realizing that only stars are supposed to hit the pressure shots

61. Ma and pa Batum, for stretching their childs limbs from birth, even if it must’ve been painful

62. Ike, for continuing to hold on to the hope that he’ll be an NBA contributor

63. Amphetamines, the ten cups of coffee, or whatever Rudy takes before the game

64. LaMarcus’ ability to draw charges

65. Channing Frye, who, despite not responding to an invitation to be a pie judge this summer, remains quintessentially Portland.

66. The ESPN announcer’s inappropriate, somewhat scary, teen idol fascination with Rudy

67. Channing’s ever-so-slightly unhinged blog

68. Joel, every grandma’s favorite player

69. Sergio, for the surprising jumper this season

70. Raef, who’s about to take the largest pay-cut in NBA history

71. Greg coming to town in a Ford Taurus

72. The mercifully short period of time we had to deal with the Faux-hawk

73. Being 2” taller at every position

74. Wondering how Brandon could possibly get better

75. The fact that all of our star players have 2-syllable names that can be easily chanted

76. Steve Blake’s wife, for giving hope to surly looking guys everywhere

77. The way Greg keeps the ball in play after blocking a shot

78. Quick and Freeman, for reasonably objective reporting and thinly veiled enthusiasm

79. Dwight Jaynes, who somehow found the cure for curmudgeon-ism

80. The knowledge that we’re not going to make a rush move to lengthen our “window”

81. Aldridge beating the opposing PG down the court

82. Ben, because he’ll eventually be forced to admit that drafting Oden #1 was the obvious and correct move.

83. Frye, for the occasionally surprising rebounding forays

84. The new jumbotron

85. Draft day during the Pritchard era

86. The fact that we don’t need a 25-point pledge anymore

87. Nic, for reminding us how much good defense at the three can impact a game

88. The fact that Larry Miller will never need “Smile Bigger” to appear on his teleprompter

89. fatty, and the urge of the all the English teachers we hated to gouge out their own eyeballs

90. That our key players aren’t “if onlys”. If only he had a jumper, played D, would pass, would put the bong down, etc.

91. Martell, who’s lost that “doughy” feeling

92. The knowledge that the number of games we’re going to win doesn’t depend on politicians, the stock market, or your boss

93. The well maintained Nike courts around the city where you can pretend to play while trying not to blow your knee out

94. Greg, for the ridiculous amount of work to triumph over cartilage damage

95. The fact that none of our players have ever been in serious off-the-court trouble

96. Outlaw, for bringing some of the deep south to Portland

97. Pritch, for having the guts to trade our leading scorer and rebounder

98. Trout, for being too modest to enter, and inevitably win, the dunk contest

99. Dave, for reminding us that “long term” means 5 years, not 5 games

100. The thoughtful analysis of BlazersEdge posters

101. The ridiculous amount of food we’re going to eat tomorrow

Meet LaMarcus Aldridge, our starting SF

Engineering Problem — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 07:18:31 -0000

Meet LaMarcus Aldridge, the Blazers starting small forward. Far fetched? Sure, but it does give one pause. Let's see, who would he have to guard? Look at the top SFs in the West:

Andrei Kirilenko - 11 PPG. Not going out on a limb to say that LaMarcus isn't going to be torched by this guy.
Peja Stojakovic - 14 PPG. 29 years old. A tough cover for LMA, but will be aging when the Blazers' window opens.
Kevin Durant - 19 PPG. Played the 2, but no one thinks he's anything but a 3 long term. Another tough cover, but Seattle (OKC?) is years from being a playoff threat.
Ron Artest - 21 PPG. Powers to the hoop a lot. I'd bet LMA could stay in front of him.
Lamar Odom - 14 PPG. Puts up a lot of weak stuff. Almost more of a rangy PF. I like LMA's length here.
Josh Howard - 20 PPG. A problem, but Dallas may trade him to rebuild.
Shane Battier - 9 PPG. Not a problem defending, but would he let LMA catch the ball?
Carmelo Anthony - 26 PPG. Melo doesn't see defenders with LMA's length very often. I like our chances here. Besides, who cares about Denver?

LMA doesn't project to be a dynamite rebounder. Most dominant rebounders show good per minute rebounding stats early on - LMA doesn't. Move him to three, and this becomes a plus. It's also a license to trap away from the ball. LaMarcus has the potential to lay down a wicked trap, ala Tayshaun Prince or Kirilenko, but would be stuck manning the paint with Mr. Oden.

So, if LMA moves to the three, who starts at PF? Well, one name that comes to mind, and I haven't seen this mentioned, is Elton Brand, an unrestricted free agent in 2009 (if he exercises his player option). He will want money, a long contract, and will want to win, all of which we can offer him. Achilles surgery isn't a career ender for a player like Brand. Elton's a legit 20/10 guy - a true force in the paint. Just a thought. A front court of LMA, Brand, and Oden? That's just sick and wrong, man. Try scoring against THAT.

Absent Brand, PF is probably the easiest position to solidify, as long as you aren't looking for a "do it all" type. Also, if LMA took over SF, the Blazers could more seriously look at trading Outlaw for PG help.

If LMA filled the SF spot, we would have a serious derth of ball handling in the starting unit. Blake/Roy/Rudy just isn't enough to keep from being trapped. That's the fly in the ointment. Rudy would absolutely have to be able to get his own shot. It also means we're forever a half court team. But really, we overachieved with that philosophy this season. I've yet to be convinced that Roy is the open court wing you need to run.

So, does any of this have merit, or should I just put down the crack pipe and learn to love the Devin Harris vs. Calderon discussions?

Let's talk defense

Engineering Problem — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 04:01:45 -0000

Ask most fans and pundits what the keys to the Blazer resurgence are and you'll likely hear teamwork and shooting. Fair enough, but what about the defense? One measure of defense is "points per shot" allowed. This is a measure of straight up D; i.e. how easily teams score when they don't turn it over. Amazingly, the Blazers are 2nd to Boston in this category. What makes this even more remarkable is that opponents are relatively free of pressure (we're last in steals by a large margin) and don't have to concentrate on offensive rebounding (we're bad on the defensive glass). Portland plays a relatively small team that doesn't bang.

Watching the Blazers, they don't have the "look" of a great defensive team. Some of this is attributable to Nate's "stay at home" philosophy, which doesn't generate turnovers from the opposition. Hard to argue with the effectiveness, despite the lack of fastbreak points. Those who advocate a pressure defense should realize the strong position we'd be giving up.

I'll confess, I can't figure out how a young, small team of shooters can be effective at forcing teams to be so incredibly inefficient with their possessions. Does anyone with more knowledge have a theory on this?

Does Channing Frye have game?

Engineering Problem — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 06:37:56 -0000

I'm struggling to figure out what exactly Channing Frye brings to this team. In our short preseason, I've observed the following:

He seems to find a way to get open from 18', ala LMA. Although we haven't seen it, let's assume he'll eventually hit these with regularity.

On offense, seems completely lost in the post. Despite being 7', his turnaround jumper does not have enough extension to be shot "straight up". He needs to fade away, which requires athleticism he doesn't have. He doesn't appear to have a lot of "stuff", such as a drop-step or up-and-under. His hook shot has little elevation and seems forced.

He is a passive rebounder. Has a Marcus Camby type build, but doesn't go and get rebounds or fight hard for position. Perhaps this worked in the East, but the West is full of mobile, active forwards who know how to rebound. Defensive boards don't automatically go to the seven footer.

Not very active on defense. Not embarrassing, but allows his man to get comfortable and relies on his height and reach to bother shots.

His floor game is decent. Not a black hole. Keeps the ball moving. Don't ask him to dribble.

Seems to have a good, upbeat court demeanor. Appears to listen and stay engaged; jumps eagerly off the bench when called.

I'm not sure Frye has the quickness to guard threes or the post skills to take advantage of his height at that position. He's way too soft for the five spot. With LMA sliding occasionally to center, he could get 30 minutes at PF if we wanted to keep him on the court.

Is a jumpshooting PF what the Blazers need? Do we want LMA to backup at center when Oden comes back? An alternative approach to Frye would be to get a bruiser at backup PF. A real scowling lunchpail type. It might be painful to play this person with Joel, so we'd have to be careful how we managed rotations.

I'd like to get others' thoughts. Is Frye what we want in a frontcourt player? What do you see as his strengths and weaknesses?

Oden thoughts - 10 days post-microfracture

Engineering Problem — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 00:06:22 -0000

With Greg's surgery 10 days behind us, the shock has begun to wear off. There has been so much speculation and analysis that it's tough to come up with anything new to add. Here's a try.

No one knows quite what to expect from a post-microfracture Oden. Will he be 100%? 90%? 50%? Let's break down what a 50% Oden might look like. He would lose some leg strength, but would likely be able to hold his post position well on both ends of the court. His width, height, and reactions would allow him to frustrate other elite post players and he would still be able to block shots on his own man. Weak side shot blocking would be confined to areas closer to the hoop. He would lose some ability to guard out at the free throw line, using his supreme quickness to recover and block the shot of a cutter. Ten boards a game isn't a stretch, given his bulk, quickness, and skill on the defensive glass. With the possible inability to make quick, decisive power moves, his offense would suffer. He could end up with the post game of a Brad Dougherty rather than a Shaq. Greg has shown an advanced basketball IQ thus far and could be someone who benefits an offense just by touching the ball. That won't go away. A 50% Oden is still a top five NBA center and would receive all-star consideration. He would average 60 games played a year until around age 29, when his effectiveness would begin to deteriorate due to knee wear and tear.

Since Greg's never played in the league, I'm not sure we'd definitively know the difference between a 75% Oden and a 100% Oden. At 75%, he would be a dominant weak side shot blocker and could average 11 or 12 boards. His ability to recover defensively would be solid enough to allow the team to opportunistically press. We wouldn't see as many "wow" blocks, but the intimidation factor wouldn't be hugely diminished. At 75%, Oden's currently undeveloped post skills would, to some extent, get blamed on lost explosiveness following the surgery when in fact they just need work. Oden may never be a "number's guy". His high school numbers were around 20/10 and I'm sure he was completely dominant. Again, if Greg's NBA numbers end up being 18/10 with 3 blocks, he may be perceived as not having beaten microfracture, when in fact his game may not be stat heavy to begin with. A 75% Oden misses perhaps 15 games a year with "this and that" and is productive into his thirties.

How likely are these scenarios? Hard to say. Amare is the obvious comparison, but Stoudamire is an odd combination of small forward and center. He makes tons of obscenely quick cuts, followed by explosion to the rim. Oden's NBA game may be somewhat more decisive, not putting as much strain on the knee from odd angles as does Amare's game. Not being an orthopedic surgeon, I'm hesitant to handicap the odds of recovery, but it's September, it's slow, so what the heck. Two years out, Greg has a 40% chance of a ninety percent recovery, a 35% chance of a seventy five percent recovery, a 15% chance of a fifty percent recovery and a 10% chance of, well, let's not go there.

We are very fortunate to have this kid on the team. Because of his personality (and willingness to share it), we'll be a talked about team. A "liked" team. The exposure will sell more Brandon Roy jerseys nationwide than perhaps we expect. Oden is mom, apple pie, and the flag rolled into one. We don't have to hold our breath that he might "blow it". Those "hall of famers" that were offered for Greg? Other teams would still make the offer and Pritch would still say no.

We have five years to put the right pieces around our big three. That's a long time. It's very possible that in that span, every other player currently on the team will leave or be traded. Look at the Bulls' championship window. Was there any constant besides Jordan and Pip? We have years to plug any holes in Oden's game that may have been created from the surgery. I would put the odds pretty high that Greg sticks around after his rookie contract. We'll be able to offer him more money and security, which becomes even more important when you've got health questions. Hopefully he likes Portland and enjoys being able to "hide out" here.

A lot of us are in the dumps right now, worried that we've lost our "shot". Far from it. The odds of Oden becoming a star center, regardless of what he "might have been" are strong. Stars are made in the playoffs and the playoffs will see a lot of Greg Oden.

Medical issues, the NBA, and the law

Engineering Problem — Tue, 18 Sep 2007 07:29:10 -0000

Kneegate got me to thinking about some of the thorny legal issues surrounding medical treatment in pro sports:

If a player declined to have necessary surgery, does the team have any legal options with regard to his contract?

Employers are required to make "reasonable accommodation" for an employee's medical condition. Does this mean an injured player can demand to play fewer minutes? Or refuse to run certain plays?

If the team demotes a player's role based on medical concerns, how is that different than the protections granted to the careers of pregnant women or those undergoing cancer treatment?

If a player decided to invoke his right of medical privacy, could he simply say he doesn't want the public to know of his medical condition? Does he waive his rights as part of his NBA contract? Can these rights even be signed away? Can a player disappear for a year without the team being able to say why?

Can a player request "workplace accommodation" from his team without revealing to his employer the nature of his medical problem?

Are NBA players subject to the FMLA (Family Medical Leave Act)? Can they take off six weeks (unpaid) with the legal stipulation that they be able to return to their old job without a decrease in responsibility? What if they get demoted to the bench on return?

If a Golden State player, living in San Francisco, uses medical marijuana, can the NBA take punitive action?

If a team doesn't want to sign a 35 year old superstar to a 6 year deal, how is that not age discrimination? (I believe legal protections kick in at 40)

If there were no guaranteed contracts, would there be any legal implications for teams to say "you play 40 minutes a game on that bum knee or you're outta here"?

Most of these are hypothetical, as NBA players are typically very competitive individuals and don't want to be seen as otherwise. Still, does anyone know how pro sports teams get around these hairy issues?

Thanksgiving

Engineering Problem — Fri, 14 Sep 2007 02:59:47 -0000

In trying times, it's helpful to search for things you're thankful for. Going through this, I discovered it's quite a list:

The Blazers are staying in Portland

We have Kevin Pritchard in the right position and the "culture" HAS changed

The relationship with the media has improved immeasurably

The Blazers have players who give fun, listenable interviews

Paul Allen has shown the willingness to spend whatever necessary to win. From all reports, the guy is stoked.

The JailBlazer era is officially over. We have 14 players with character and one marginalized headcase.

Brandon Roy will serve up opponents hearts on a plate for the next decade. He will do this with a smile and proactive leadership.

The team showed up 5 WEEKS EARLY. This never happens.

The team's blueprint is proven. Franchise center, a distributor, and the potential for great defense and an inside-out game. Championships are built from this formula.

Aldridge has shown all-star potential and seems like a great guy.

Rudy's already bought his ticket to PDX

We get to read Oden's blog

Our core players have "real game"; they're not just stat-men

Nate

Expectations are high, which is it's own blessing

The team has quite a few tradable assets

The Rose Garden is getting a fancy new scoreboard and video screen

We're no longer waiting for the light to come on with Z-Bo

The cold, dispassionate, statistically most likely scenario with Oden allows him to be a top 2 NBA center in 5 years.

Without deluding ourselves, we can see the path to a championship

At least 24 teams would gladly swap their roster straight up with ours, even post microfracture.

Summer of '09. Anybody want to win? Come to Portland.

Look where we were 15 months ago:
http://www.basketballreference.com/teams/teamyear.htm?tm=POR&lg=n&yr=2005
Wow.

Please chime in with anything thankful you'd like to add.

Darius Miles: 231 lbs

Engineering Problem — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 04:50:10 -0000

An update from the Columbian:

http://www.columbian.com/sports/blazerbanter/

Summary:

Darius is at 231 lbs. He's cleared to run and will likely be able to practice by November.

Everyone is at pre-camp except Sergio (Euro playoffs) and Pryz (will be here next week).

LMA is 100%. The heel is fine - no lingering effects.