Role players rarely play roles so perfectly. On Sunday, the Mets were led by a star -- Johan Santana pitched a complete-game shutout after all -- but they were powered by the lesser-known players on the roster.

Scott Hairston murders lefties and plays good defense at any outfield position. He took lefty Clayton Richard deep in the first for the only runs the Mets would need.

Vinny Rottino can play passably anywhere on the diamond that isn't the middle infield, and is similar at the plate -- he has a little patience, a little pop, and a little speed. He took Richard deep just a few batters later.

The calls for him to be the next backup catcher quieted just a bit when another role player, Mike Nickeas, took Padres interim closer Dale Thayer deep for a grand slam. It was the first grand slam for the player, and the first grand slam for the team since last year. Nickeas has a little pop, sure, but if Rottino's glove can actually handle the catcher position, it's a legitimate conversation to continue.

Backup shortstop Ronny Cedeno had two walks and played decent defense. Rottino got on base four times. Justin Turner had two hits and played some shortstop. The Mets emptied out their bench and scored nine runs.

They couldn't have won without their ace, who was ace-like. Santana breezed through his 27 outs in only 96 pitches. He struck out seven, and didn't walk any. His velocity hasn't come back, but he's shown that his excellent changeup and slider are still there. In a way, he pitched backwards -- his ~10% whiff rates on the slider and changeup on Saturday were a little below league average, but they set up his 89 MPH fastball for 16.7% whiffs during his shutout, well above league norms. In any case, the Padres lineup wasn't much of an impediment, and the bullpen got a day off.

This win, which showcased some of the depth that the front office built, also will help the teams run differential. So there's that! Happy holiday weekend.

Continue reading this post »

Scott Hairston hit a three-run home run in the first, Vinny Rottino followed with a solo job, and Johan Santana mowed em down. Complete game shutout with seven strikeouts, no walks, and only four hits.

We knew it was over when...

Johan Santana came out for the second inning and saw the "heart" of the Padres order. And mowed em down.

We really knew it was over when...

Mike Nickeas hit a grand slam in the bottom of the eighth inning -- the first Mets grand slam of the year -- to finish the scoring.

What else?

Andres Torres got a hit and a walk, mostly batting from the right side, and generally looked a little better at the plate than he has recently. David Wright wronged the Mets with a hitless day, but still got a walk and is now hitting a paltry .390. The Mets bench performed admirably.

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by astromets; that effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

it's true that secondary players are secondary players for a reason. For much of the evening, Mets fans were treated with the pleasure of watching Mike Nickeas struggle with R.A. Dickey's knuckler. Two passed balls at key moments led to runs. And then he struck out swinging to end two scoreless innings early in the game. By the time Ronny Cedeno went out on his own to lay down a bunt with Daniel Murphy at third base with one out in a scoreless ballgame, there were probably a good number of Mets fans pining for Josh Thole and Ruben Tejada.

Good thing they play nine.

Mat Latos was pitching well. He didn't quite have his good velocity, but his breaking stuff was snapping and he was around the plate. Through five innings, he had seven strikeouts and had only given up two runs on Lucas Duda's fifth inning double. With the specter of Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall coming for the Reds (and Mets relievers pitching for the Mets), there were probably more than a few fans groaning about missed chances.

Good thing they play nine.

By the end of the game, the Mets had contributions from all sorts of sources. And by the end of the game, the Mets showed who had the better bullpen for the day.

In the bottom of the sixth, the Mets were down two runs and Mat Latos just needed to get through the inning to pass the ball on. He gave up a walk to Ike Davis, and then Ronny Cedeno singled to shallow left. Then Mike Nickeas was asked to bunt. It looked like he might not manage it -- he bunted a couple strikes foul and the count ran to 3-2 -- but then he rolled a perfect ball down the line that third baseman Todd Frazier couldn't handle. With the bases loaded and no outs, the fact that they only got one run there might not have been impressive, but it was the bottom of the lineup.

In the seventh inning, Chapman and his impressive stuff came on to shut out the Mets for multiple innings, or so the storyline was supposed to go. Chapman had his usual knockout stuff with iffy control, and Wright took advantage like a veteran leader should, working a walk. Lucas Duda took the one bad pitch from Chapman -- a bit of a hanging, if mid-nineties, slider -- and muscled it into shallow center. Daniel Murphy hit a fliner liner that looked like it might be caught by the center fielder but ended up bouncing out of Drew Stubbs' glove. For the second time in two innings, the Mets had the bases loaded with no outs. Once again they scored a single run, but it was Aroldis Chapman.

In the eighth inning, Rob Johnson replicated Mike Nickeas' bunt and reached base to get on in front of Wright. Wright boomed one to center, and Johnson scored to move the Mets ahead. Murphy was walked to get to Cedeno, who had two home runs in 454 plate appearances in 2011. Ronny Cedeno then hit a massive three-run blast.

Mike Baxter hit a sacrifice fly to get the third run. Justin Turner hit the sac fly to get the tying run, and drove in the sixth run. Ronny Cedeno hit that three-run homer to put the game out of reach. It was a good day for role players.

Of course, David Wright walked three times and hit two doubles. He's still hitting .400 and he drove in a run on Thursday. Daniel Murphy had two hits and a walk, and went into the outfield in order to make two great catches in a way he wasn't supposed to be able to. He even doubled up Joey Votto at home plate on one of the catches. Lucas Duda had two hits. R.A. Dickey struck out eight in six innings and kept his quality start streak going. The stars had an impact on the game as well. But it was still a good day for the role players.

One last shout-out goes to the bullpen. Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell and Frank Francisco pitched three scoreless innings with four baserunners and three strikeouts against one walk. Those sort of numbers are attainable for the important trio, but they haven't been in the box scores recently. Perhaps this one can get them going.

The role players turned this tight one into a laugher, and the bullpen kept it that way. Perfect for getaway day.

Continue reading this post »

Going into the seventh down a run with the prospect of facing Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall, pessimism was warranted. A few bloops, walks, dinks, and a blast later, and the Mets took home a laugher.

Good defense by Daniel Murphy. A nice swing or two by Lucas Duda. Ronny Cedeno capped things off with a no-doubt three-run home run in the eighth inning. The role players were good enough.

But the star of the game might be the star for the Mets -- David Wright got on base in every plate appearance, going two-for-two with three walks and two doubles. He's still hitting. 400. His offense has been worth twice the league average so far this year. Pay the man!

R.A. Dickey hung in there and kept his quality start streak in tact. The bullpen was good.

Strong day game for the Mets.

Full recap to come.

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan; that effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

When a player that was once a beast turns into his least for so long it's only natural that the boo-birds come out to see him play. Here's a player being paid handsomely to drive in runs for your home town team, and he's not coming through.

So it make sense that some Mets fans hate Jason Bay. But not all, at least not yet. Isn't there a sense that Bay desperately wants to produce better, and that he's trying hard? Isn't there a bit of sympathy for a seeming everyman? It's not his fault Omar Minaya gave him all that money. There's also no need to get all emotional about a baseball player that is actually good at what he does in the grander scheme of things, and is also a nightly performer on the small screen. It's better to save that hatred for real people that have a real effect on real life issues.

But it does make sense to be confounded by him. Was all of this decline so obvious? We saw some things ahead of time, but this much decline, this quickly? What happened? What's happening now? He is now, and has always been, a confusing player.

Continue reading this post »

The Mets put nine homegrown position players on the field for Thursday's matinee. They started with a pop, fizzled for a bit in the middle, and finished with a bang, as the Mets walked off with a 3-2 victory in hand. The fireworks helped provide some hope, particularly those that came in the ninth inning.

Sizzling starter Kirk Nieuwenhuis appropriately began the game right, as he launched a deep drive to right field off of Ricky Nolasco in the first. Mike Stanton made a play on the ball and could have reeled it in, but at home, when the ball hits the glove and rolls off at the wall like that, you'll get a triple in the box every time. Ruben Tejada, who doesn't have the most pop, drove the ball far enough into right center to get the run home. It was a home-grown run.

After that, though, the home-spun thread ran bare for a while. The Mets only got baserunners into scoring position once there were two outs. David Wright doubled with two outs in the first. Jon Niese walked to push Ike Davis to second with two outs in the second. The third, sixth and seventh innings were 1-2-3 affairs. Generally, Ricky Nolasco was handling the lineup.

Niese did his part to match Nolasco, fanning six against no walks and four hits. He got swinging strikes on nine pitches (once again, twice as many on his fastball as his curveball), and repeated his delivery well. The low outside corner to right-handers was a spot he hit with ease, and without a Gaby Sanchez home run and a double-play groundout after two singles, he might have matched zeroes. The booth thought that if it wasn't Ike Davis or Lucas Duda, the standout homegrown player of the game with the most upside might be Niese, and it was easy to see on Thursday.

On the other hand, even the most enthusiastic fan has to see some of the flaws in the home-spun pieces. Nieuwenhuis was in his element facing a right-hander, so he looked great. But Lucas Duda went hitless with two strikeouts and has been whiffing more than we thought he might. Ike Davis did walk, but his hit was a nubber that could have easily been a ground-out or foul-out. He didn't look much better at the plate than he has in his lost-looking beginning to the season. Josh Thole extended his season-long on-base streak and got a hit, but his upside was perfectly put by Keith Hernandez: "He's the perfect number seven hitter." Jordany Valdespin in lefty field is not very Jordan-y at all.

But then the ninth inning happened. And there was a lot to like about that ninth inning.

David Wright pushed the Marlins' new Rod Beck, Heath Bell, to six pitches once he saw that Bell couldn't the curveball over. The rest of the lineup must have taken note. Lucas Duda saw seven pitches before he grounded out. Ike Davis watched four balls. Josh Thole saw six pitches, and walked on a curveball. The pitching coach for the Fish came out and told his hefty closer to quit hucking curveballs before Justin Turner got out there, and Turner fouled off fastball after fastball (and one hanging curve) to achieve a 13-pitch game-tying RBI walk. Scott Hairston, not homegrown and also up there with the game now tied, was a little overeager and grounded out. Kirk Nieuwenhuis? He hit Bell's second pitch -- and 46th of the inning -- to basically the same spot as his triple. Game over.

Bell was as bad as Nolasco was good. He only got one whiff and 24 strikes in those 46 pitches, and in general his curveball was either on the ground or hanging. Still, he got the fastball up to 94.8 MPH and some of the less-seasoned players in this lineup could have been forgiven for eagerly whiffing at one or two of those. Maybe some of the organizational changes have taken root, and borne the fruit that was on display today. The Mets did a great job of protecting the plate and not offering at balls.

In the end, the most important thing is that, after a long game full of disappointment, this crew hung in there in the ninth inning and didn't give a single swing away. That's an unmitigated positive.

Continue reading this post »

Mets' starter Mike Pelfrey is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery, the Star-Ledger's Andy McCullough is reporting. Others have confirmed the surgery is planned, and the Mets' twitter feed announced that the pitcher is indeed headed to Birmingham, Alabama to meet with Dr. James Andrews.

Though the surgery has a high success rate, and Pelfrey should be fine in a year's time, the news comes at a tough time for the tall right-hander. This year, so far, he's been able to garner more swinging strikes and ground balls than ever before. His velocity was up, and he was using his breaking balls more than ever. There was some hope that he'd turned the corner finally.

Next year will also be the last year in which the Mets control Pelfrey's rights. Depending on how his offseason rehab goes, and how much he's awarded in arbitration, there's a chance that this is the last time Mets fans see him in their uniform. It's important to remember, especially with a pitcher down his luck like this, that he's provided value to the Mets even through his inconsistency. So far, he's been worth over nine wins above replacement, or as much as $50 million, and he's only cost the team close to $15 million.

Let's wish him luck on his long road back, and thank him for services rendered so far.

The Mets couldn't get much offense going all game. Ricky Nolasco was dealing, with five strikeouts against six baserunners in seven innings.

Sure, Kirk Nieuwenhuis had a defense-aided triple and scored in the first when Ruben Tejada hit a sac fly. But after that, the Mets went down 1-2-3 three times and only got a baserunner as far as second once there were two outs. Lucas Duda struck out twice and didn't get a hit. Daniel Murphy went hitless. And Nolasco scattered the hits that David Wright, Josh Thole and Ike Davis managed.

But then came that ninth inning. Heath Bell -- former Mets farmhand and current Rod Beck for the Marlins -- couldn't find the plate. His curve bounced on the ground, his fastballs brought his catcher to his knees and to his feet, and he walked the bases loaded. So his pitching coach came out and told him to scrap the curve with Justin Turner at the plate with one out and the bases loaded. 13 pitches later, despite starting off with an 0-2 count, Turner coaxed a walk to tie the game.

It took eight pitches for Scott Hairston to ground out to first. That brought Nieuwenhuis to the plate.. for a walkoff hit on a 1-0 count. Bookends for Captain Kirk!

Jon Niese was greater than the sum of his parts today.

Look at the final line -- six innings, seven strikeouts, four walks, three earned runs -- and you'd think it was a decent start against an offense in the midst of having some trouble. But the start represented so much more for Niese and the Mets.

For one, he had a no-hitter going through six innings. That was enough to percolate interest in the game, and it also does more to describe how good he was. He got 10% swinging strikes on his fastball, mostly from high strikes on 92-93 MPH four-seamers. That velocity was strong, and he hit 92+ on his 96th pitch, so he kept the gun happy all game. The curveball and cutter only produced two swinging strikes in 43 pitches, but they did help Niese keep the ball on the ground. He had ten ground balls to two fly balls, so even if those pitches weren't producing whiffs, they were producing.

Niese even broke out a new release point on lefties. The lefty dropped to a Mike Myers / Randy Myers release point to get a few strikes on left-handed batters. He might have tried it one time too many, as he stumbled and fell on a sidearm pitch late in the game. Take a look at his release points and you'll see the pitch pretty clearly, thanks to Brooks Baseball:

In a way, that pitch was a microcosm of today's game. It was almost disastrous, and in any other year, the Mets could have lost this game and two or three players to the DL along the way. Niese had hamstring surgery once, after all, and when he fell off the mound, many Mets fans found their breath caught in their throats. But Niese stood back up and shook off any attention.

In the seventh, Lucas Duda misplayed a ball that helped turn a single and a walk into three runs, but Manny Acosta shut the door and didn't let the inning turn into a disasterpiece theater. In the eighth, Lucas Duda and Kirk Nieuwenhuis ran into each other in the outfield -- but Duda caught the ball and nobody was hurt. Later, Ronny Cedeno and Ruben Tejada ran into each other on a pop fly. Once again, nobody was hurt and the out was secured.

What could have been terrible turned out triumphant.

On to the other side of the ball. You'll see in the box score that David Wright went one for one with a single, but his offensive production ranged far beyond that simple line. He had a sacrifice fly, a walk, and an intentional walk, and seemed to be in a good frame of mind at the plate. Jason Bay, despite a baserunning gaffe, did give the Mets a run-scoring single and a walk. Daniel Murphy had two doubles and extended every rally.

But the hitter's game ball goes to Ruben Tejada. In his second game in the leadoff spot, he showed patience, got into good counts, and collected his first four-hit game of the season. He even showed power with two doubles, one of which could be described as 'booming.' He started the game off with a double in the first (Wright plated him), and in the bottom of the sixth, his double plated the team's sixth and seventh runs in the form of Bay (after his walk) and Duda (after his single).

Though the game got a little closer than it perhaps should have, the Mets won a good one on Easter Sunday. Their young lefty pitcher looked good, their young shortstop had a multi-hit game, and their young right fielder got a walk and a single despite staring down the wrong side of a platoon advantage for most of the game.

That's all important, because it will only be because of the youth if the Mets rise once again.

Continue reading this post »

Niese has a nose for the game, and he also came within a nose of no-hitter. Who nose? A different bounce here or there, and the Mets could have finally had a nose hitter. But no no-nose for the Mets on Sunday.

Which isn't to say that it wasn't a great day. A sweepingly good day.

Jon Niese looked like he has taken some steps forward. He got strikes with his high fastball, whiffs with his curve, and strange, befuddled looks with his LOOGY-esque Mike Myers release point against lefties. He was effectively wild, with four walks against seven strikeouts in seven innings, and had Duda not lost the ball in the lights, this day game would have had a more lopsided score. Still, three earned in six-plus with seven Ks is a good day.

David Wright barely got to the plate officially -- a sac fly, an intentional walk, and a normal walk were how he started the day -- but he did look good doing it. Daniel Murphy doubled twice and one drove in runs. He also muffed a turn at second, but that's to be expected from the former corner guy. Jason Bay even had a hit and a walk! And then he got caught sleeping on the basepaths to squash a rally in the seventh. So, still Jason Bay.

On offense, though, Ruben Tejada gets the game ball. His two doubles had the booth talking Placido Polanco at shortstop and made real the visions of a glovely doubles-and-walks machine, if only for an afternoon. Four hits (for the first time in his career) and a solid approach lead to two runs and two RBI. That's how it's done.

Who nose? 159 more wins to go.

Let's dream on this one.

Let's ignore the fact that Johan Santana didn't hit 90 on the gun, and that he was down to 86-87 MPH on the fastball in the fifth inning. Let's look right past the fact that the Braves' offense isn't the sexiest these days. Let's not worry about the fact that the Mets only managed to plate one of their 11 baserunners. Let's not think about all that.

Let's instead think about how Johan Santana looked great for four innings. Let's imagine that changeup and slider dancing, as it did today, for a full season. He struck out five in his five innings! He only allowed four baserunners. He smiled. He pitched well, up until the fifth inning when he gave up a double to part-time lefty-killer Matt Diaz and then lost control and walked the bottom of the order. Let's remember that weak grounder he got from Michael Bourn to end the inning instead of focusing on the walk to Tommy Hanson.

And the lineup? We could yammer about all the missed opportunities -- and had the score ended up in the Braves' favor, we surely would be -- but we won't. It's more fun to notice that the Mets managed four walks against their six strikeouts, and that they only went down 1-2-3 once. Why point out that six of the seven hits were singles? The made contact! They were patient! Other than Ike Davis and Lucas Duda (oh-for-eight with four strikeouts combined), every regular put his foot on first base.

Ramon Ramirez didn't look super. Jon Rauch was only okay. Never mind! Tim Byrdak looked healthy and struck two guys out. He made Jose Constanza look silly. Frank Francisco was pumping gas. Don't think too hard about the booth calling him an Armando Benitez lookalike, don't do it. Just relax and enjoy game one.

There will be enough time to feel sad about things like Andres Torres coming up lame and re-injuring his calf muscle on day one. And surely there will be days where we lament the strikeouts from the middle of the order.

Today? Let's dream on this first win.

Continue reading this post »

Johan Santana came back almost as good as ever. He didn't crack 90 on the gun, and he didn't have the longevity to last past 84 pitches, and the Braves lineup isn't the sexiest these days, but never mind. Santana went five innings, struck out five, and only allowed four baserunners. He escaped a bases-loaded jam in the fifth to be eligible for the win, but the Mets' run came too late to hand him the 'W.'

He gets a 'W' in the hearts of Mets' fans everywhere, though. After a year away, this was about the best that could be expected, caveats and all.

It's often said that offense is behind pitching at this stage of the season, and over twenty innings into Opening Day 3.0, there were no runs in any of the three games being played. The Mets offense broke the ice, but they didn't do as well as you might expect when you see they had 11 baserunners on the day.

On a day in which Santana returned, perhaps it was fitting that David Wright was the one that plated the run with a timely hit. His single to left scored Andres Torres in the sixth after a walk by the new Met and a double by Daniel Murphy.

The third game ball goes to the Mets' new pen. Four scoreless from Ramon Ramirez (no strikeouts, one walk, two hits, four outs), Tim Byrdak (two strikeouts, no walks, no hits, two outs), Jon Rauch (no strikeouts, no walks, no hits, three outs) and Frank Francisco (one strikeout (of Jason Heyward to end the game), no walks, no hits, three outs). Frankie Frank hit 94 on the gun too.

One win down, 161 left to go.

The Dodgers sold for more than two billion dollars, you may have heard. The Mets have some money troubles, you may have heard. Are these two items linked? And how?

Of course there are implications for the Mets that stem from the Dodgers' sale -- after all, a rising tide raises all ships -- but there may be fewer implications than many would have you think. With separate $400+ million loans coming to term against the team and the ballpark in the next two years, the Mets' current owners are not out of the woods based on the valuation of a team in Los Angeles.

Continue reading this post »

Earlier today, a settlement between trustee Irving Picard and the Wilpon family was announced. The first details were hard to parse -- both sides were spinning the $162 million agreement as a win. The trustee's spokesman emphasized the fact that his clients had just had a large sum returned to them after being defrauded by Bernie Madoff. The team chose to talk about the team's "solid" financial footing now that all payments had been postponed at least three years.

Douglas Furth, partner and bankruptcy specialist at Golenbock, Eiseman, Assor, Bell & Peskoe LLP was kind enough to help us figure out exactly what just happened.

Continue reading this post »

You may have heard that Johan Santana made a spring start and looked good. He sat 88-89 MPH and touched 90. His changeup danced. Everyone was smiles.

Was there any reason not to smile?

Apologies for being a wet blanket, but definitely maybe. Those radar gun readings were not all poops and popsicles.

Continue reading this post »

We looked at the composite projections (supplied by Fantasy411) for the Mets' hitters last week, and in a couple cases, splitting the difference felt a little like kissing your sister. Nobody likes a wishy-washy tie, especially when Ike Davis is the matter at hand.

So are we going to like the composites any better when R.A. Dickey is the subject? Probably not, but one thing becomes clear when looking at the numbers: this will be a tough year to watch Mets pitching.

Continue reading this post »

It's not a guarantee that putting all the projections into a bag and shaking them up produces the best results. Aggregated poor inputs are still poor inputs.

But when you're using the best projections systems in the game, it does make sense to take a composite view. After all, the 'consensus' or 'composite' projections usually place highly in Tom Tango's 'Forecaster Challenge' competitions each year. The consensus even won the whole thing last year.

So let's see what the consensus has to say about the Mets' position players this year.

Continue reading this post »

Yesterday, we established -- or at least posited -- that the Mets have acted the part of a sabermetrically-aware team since Sandy Alderson was installed at the helm. In terms of perception and organizational / structural change, the team has pushed boundaries.

Have they pushed those same boundaries with their list of player acquisitions?

By definition, there's no such thing as a 'saber player.' If you are going to use statistical analysis to identify undervalued players, the league will adjust and a new type of player will be undervalued. The original Moneyball player -- the high-walk slugger -- is fully appreciated by this point. Just look at Adam Dunn's latest contract. The thought was that Oakland and Seattle's new-found focus on defense suggested that the second wave of Moneyball athletes. Call it the Franklin Gutierrez wave.

What's undervalued now? We're in the crucible, bounded by our own time, and we don't work for a team so we don't know what they know. Perhaps we won't be able to tell just by perusing the Mets' moves from the past two years, but perhaps we will get a sense of their tendencies.

Then we can decide if those tendencies seem forward-looking.

Continue reading this post »

We take it almost for granted that the new regime in New York is a sabermetric one. By that, we mean that they search for undervalued assets through the vigorous study of baseball scouting and statistics. After all, Sandy Alderson hired Billy Beane -- or was it Brad Pitt. In any case, like sabermetrics pushes us to question our assumptions about the game of baseball, it should also push us to question this current assumption about the front office.

Is the current Mets organization truly a "saber" organization?

How would we figure this out? A definition must come first, but it's the hardest part. Calling an organization 'saber' suggests that they use statistics to make decision, but that's not the only part. After all, even the most old-school organizations use statistics -- maybe RBI or wins, but still statistics. What we are looking for are signs that this organization is thinking differently about how to run a baseball team. We want to see that they are looking for undervalued assets and searching for the right structures to put in place for sustained success.

In order to determine if the team is saber or not, we'll have analyze the moves that the team has made at the very least. These moves could be anything from free agent signings, to trade acquisitions, to waiver claims -- but they could also include structural and organizational change. Industry opinions are useful, in that they let us know what the rest of baseball thinks about current leadership. Any sort of indication that the team is pushing the analysis and using research to identify undervalued assets would seem to 'prove' their saber-ness.

We can try to look at each of these phases of the game, but the organization is still a bit of a black box -- as well it should be. After all, they have to try and beat every other organization out there and therefore don't gain much by broadcasting their methods. And we might discover that labeling the Mets is a useless exercise, too.

But let's give it a shot anyway.

Continue reading this post »

We projected Project: Duda last in this series and there were a few ways to read the available peripherals. This week, we'll use the same tools to check out Ike Davis even though nobody seems to be worried about Ike Davis.

"I'm not worried about Ike Davis." -- Dave Hudgens, Mets Hitting Coach

And yet, this is a man that did not hit a home run in his debut professional history. Is his power indubitable? What can we say about his coming year if we look at his batted ball distance, angle, and heat maps? What does his hitting coach think about the coming year?

Let's take a look.

Continue reading this post »

It's time to continue our Project project, which began with Ruben Tejada and his walk rate and continued with David Wright and his power/contact dichotomy. Now it's time to tackle the big boy, the Ox, El Dudarino, or just Lucas Duda if you're into that brevity thing.

Using the best heat maps, batted ball maps, advanced statistics, and batting coach insights that we can muster, let's see what issues Duda might have at the plate in 2012. Along with Ike Davis, he might be the Mets best shot at a young, cost-controlled middle-of-the-order bat, so his development this year should be of great interest. On a team needing more positive on-the-field story lines, Duda provides hope.

Continue reading this post »

How do you write a player profile about Ronny Cedeno without writing about Ruben Tejada?

Because, if Ruben Tejada can manage a scratch glove and a league-average walk rate (or better), he'll combine more offense with a decent glove than Cedeno has ever managed, relegating the former Buc to a bench role.

The bench has been Cedeno's on-again off-again friend over his seven-year carer in the Major Leagues. Originally signed by the Cubs as an International Free Agent out of Venezuela at 16 years old, he had an up-and-down career in the minor leagues. He didn't normally show power, only once stole more than 20 bags, and had a wildly oscillating batting average -- but he had steady enough defense that he ascended gradually and finally got the reigns at short for the Cubs in 2006.

It didn't go that well.

He hit .245/.271/.339 in 151 games, didn't show a great glove, "put up" -1.6 WAR, and removed himself from the starting conversation going forward. It took a trade (for Aaron Heilman) to Seattle (where he hit .167/.213/.290 in 2009) to extricate himself from the logjam of mediocre Cub infielders. The Mariners saw enough of him in 207 PAs and traded him as part of an offseason package for Ian Snell and Jack Wilson, which worked out well for them (right?).

Cedeno's Pirate career did include a healthy share of playing time. He averaged over 475 PAs a year those two seasons, and he finally pushed the WAR needle past one, accruing 2.5 wins over two seasons by batting .253/.295/.362 and being a tiny bit better than scratch with the glove. Still, two wins per season is your average MLB player and .261/.314/.374 is your average NL shortstop, so he's not a first-division starter. And he's not plus enough with the glove to make up for the bat -- his lifetime UZR/150 is below scratch and he's no wizard in that department. He's better as a backup at the middle infield.

Which, if Ruben Tejada does his part, is exactly what the 29-year-old infielder will be this season.

Last week,we broke the news that the Mets hired CRG Turnaround Consultants, and there's been a lot of back and forth since -- not the least of which was the team taking to twitter to refute the link between CRG and bankruptcy, or the satirical @CRGMetsPR account that popped up to poke fun at the situation. Since none of us are in the meetings, it's speculation for now, but there's no real-life baseball to talk about anyway.

In that light, Daniel Lewis (who brought us this excellent look into the Mets' finances) and I had a little email conversation. By the end of this email chain, I knew a little bit more about the situation at hand, but also a little more about how my pessimism may be coloring my viewpoint. In fact, Lewis and I sort of outline two different viewpoints on the news, and both seem reasonable.

Do you find yourself squarely in one camp or the other? Or do you vacillate depending on your mood?

Eno Sarris: Let's go into the bankruptcy specter first -- would bankruptcy automatically force the Wilpons to sell?

Continue reading this post »

A source familiar with the situation has said that the Mets have hired CRG Partners — the turnaround consultants that handled the Rangers' bankruptcy sale — and that a team sale with or without bankruptcy is on the table. The Mets have confirmed the hiring, stating that they have "engaged CRG Partners to provide services in connection with financial reporting and budgeting processes."

Hiring turnaround consultants doesn't necessarily mean that the team is specifically preparing for bankruptcy and a sale — consultants like these are brought in to figure out how a struggling business can become profitable — but it further underscores the Mets' moribund financial situation. Also, a turnaround company typically gets only a modest fee if it comes in and merely makes recommendations; it has a considerable economic incentive to push for a huge sale when a sizable commission is in the offing.

Paired with the recent report that the Mets are dissolving their Gulf Coast League team in St. Lucie, and the lack of any big-ticket player acquisitions in the offseason, even a casual observer might reasonably conclude that the team is slimming down for a potential sale.

The ongoing financial morass for Mets ownership also looms large — their difficulty in finding minority investors suggests that their personal Madoff-related financial problems may have colored the perception of the team, its viability, and its availability. If Irving Picard, who represents the victims of the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, gets the full $386 million he seeks from the Wilpons, they may be forced to sell the team in order to recover that money. If you're a prospective investor, why settle for a small piece of the pie when you can bide your time and scoop up the whole team later?

Mets fans would be understandably excited about the prospect of a bankruptcy situation considering how well the Rangers' situation panned out. However, bankruptcies have a lot of moving parts and the Devil, as they say, is in the details. Every bankruptcy sale has three parties: the ownership group that is in debt, the creditors, and the buyers. If this process is indeed in the Mets' future, it could be a long and difficult one with no shortage of delays and acrimony to come. William Snyder, the CRG consultant who led the Rangers' bankruptcy sale, made many enemies along the way — including new Rangers owner Chuck Greenberg, who said that he'd "met some duplicitous people in my life, but [Snyder] set a new standard." But part of the reason that the sale worked was because the bidding process upped the price and brought in more money for the team's creditors.

Plenty of billionaires will be interested in owning some or all of the Mets, particularly given the strength of their home market and the value and reputation of SNY, but there are still some key differences between their situation and that of the Rangers.

Continue reading this post »

Have you projected your favorite Mets at FanGraphs yet? If anyone should put their stamp on that crowdsourcing effort, it should be our community, so consider this a plea to do so. Our reason may have to balance out some irrational exuberance, or vice-versa.

In the meantime, and in order to perhaps give you easy links to key figures, we'll look at what the fans have projected so far, compared to ZiPs, and discuss where the difference may have come from.

The numbers!

Continue reading this post »

The Mets keep popping up in trade rumors for the Rockies' left fielder Seth Smith. His acquisition would make for a strange fit on many levels.

First, there's the question of where he would play. It's an obvious one, but why trade for a player at a position that is pretty much filled? Is there some thing we're missing about our corner outfielders?

Yes, Jason Bay hasn't been good. He hasn't managed to be above average in two years now. If he can't manage to be an average defender in the corner outfield, he is not a candidate for center field.

If the team is treating him as a sunk cost and is ready to move on, then perhaps it would make sense to get a young, cost-controlled corner outfielder for the future. Lucas Duda can barely play his corner outfield position, he couldn't handle both corners. Brandon Nimmo is the big hope for center field, and the last big hope for center field, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, doesn't look like he has a bat for the corners. At least not while he's striking out more than a quarter of the time. Cesar Puello is in high-A ball and can't take a walk. Maybe there's a need here.

Is Smith the one to fill it?

Continue reading this post »