SB Nation Blog: Eric Simon

Is Jerry Really Any Better?

Eric Simon — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 02:34:18 -0000

Things that went wrong:

No timely hitting
Didn't rough up Happ when they had the chance
Santana had the nerve to pitch a bad inning
Jerry Manuel has shit where his brains would normally be

And like that the Mets are 5.5 back. Happy independence day!

Big winners: Johan Santana, +25.2% WPA, Ramon Castro, +13.6% WPA
Big losers: Duaner Sanchez, -35.7% WPA, Carlos Beltran, -18.6%
Teh aw3s0mest play: Ramon Castro leadoff double in fifth, +13.2% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Shane Victorino blah blah blah, -39.0% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -10.6%
Total batter WPA: -39.4%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by pingel; his effort in tonight's game thread embiggens us all.

Name	# of Posts
pingel	35
itsmetsforme	34
JohnPeterson	23
gogomets	15
ZaBlanc	8
elifriedman	1

Open Thread - Game 86: Mets vs Phillies

Eric Simon — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 22:12:47 -0000

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Johan Santana	7-7	17	17	0	0	0	0	113.2	107	46	38	14	32	103	3.01	1.22

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A Split

Eric Simon — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 17:08:12 -0000

More of the same here as the Mets follow up an excruciating loss with a laugher, roughing up Mitchell Boggs for eleven runs and ten hits in six innings. Boggs was in take-one-for-the-team mode, as the Mets scored nine of their runs in the first three innings. Carlos Beltran had the night off, and it was good to see this team score some runs when one of their big bats is out of the lineup. I guess it helps when the planets align and Endy Chavez, Marlon Anderson and Damion Easley get two hits apiece. One of them, fine, I'll buy it. Two of them, sure, crazy things happen all the time. But all three? The odds of that happening are vanishingly small, and unless you're that girl that got struck by lightning AND won the lottery, the likelihood of it happening again are equally slim. Having Ryan Church's bat ine the lineup and what I can only guess is a wardrobe entirely furnished by Abercrombie and Fitch back in the locker room adds quite a bit of depth to the offense (Church's intramural beer pong team is thrilled to have him back as well, I'm told). No longer can teams pitch around the first four batters and bank on fifteen straight outs to follow.

What's more, Mike Pelfrey is very rapidly transforming into a stud. The pitch he struck out Pujols on in the first inning was downright filthy, and he got plenty of groundballs and popups en route to allowing just one run over seven innings. His fastball is definitely a plus pitch right now, and with each start his secondary pitches seem to be getting a little bit better. They're still nothing special; maybe not even an average pitch among them, but his heater is so good right now that even marginal progress with his off-speed pitches will lead to dramatic results when he's out there. He's not there yet, but I could see him following along the Brandon Webb career path. I'm not going to delude myself into thinking he'll be as good as Webb, but there are enough similarities to project Pelfrey as a possible poor man's version of Webb in a couple of years. Pelfrey just turned 24 and is in his third partial season -- first full season -- with the Mets. He's had plenty of ups and downs since turning pro, especially at the big league level, but he's making real strides towards becoming a pitcher, not the proverbial thrower.

Big winners: Damion Easley, +11.4% WPA, Mike Pelfrey, +11.3% WPA
Big losers: Ramon Castro, -1.9% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Damion Easley RBI single in first, +8.1% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Castro lineout in first, -2.7% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +11.4%
Total batter WPA: +38.6%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by JE; his effort in last night's game thread embiggens us all.

Name	# of Posts
JE	24
citislicker	18
itsmetsforme	14
Reg Dunlop	7
DoctorK16	7
JohnPeterson	6
Prince	5
JoshNY	3
metsexile	2
Endys Game	2

Open Thread - Game 85: Mets vs Cardinals

Eric Simon — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 22:02:02 -0000

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Mike Pelfrey	5-6	15	15	0	0	0	0	86.2	102	45	43	4	41	48	4.47	1.65

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Mitchell Boggs	3-0	5	4	0	0	0	0	22.2	22	11	11	3	11	10	4.37	1.46

Will They Ever Learn?

Eric Simon — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:28:59 -0000

What the hell was that crap about? I don't know why I bother sometimes, because staying up late to watch this team give it up like that as often as they do really takes a lot out of me. This loss was such a wretched, phenomenal failure, but none of us can say that we didn't expect the game to end poorly, at least a little bit. This team seems to be a magnet for suffering, and if there's a reasonable way to lose a game they can usually find it.

Pedro was terrible, then it rained, and then he was much better. Overall, still terrible, but he showed signs of putting things together after giving up four runs in the first. I don't know if he's still tipping his pitches or disguising them well but executing them poorly, but last night's poll still stands as a big question mark for the remainder of the season.

This loss really hurts. The Mets haven't won a single game this season during which they've trailed by more than two runs at any point. Last night they were down by four runs and they charged all the way back to take a two-run lead in the seventh. They'll kick themselves because they had a couple of chances to pad that lead: first in the seventh when Jose Reyes lined out to center to end the inning with two runners on base, and again when David Wright hit a one-out triple in the eighth, only to be stranded when Carlos Beltran struck out looking and Ryan Church grounded out to second. The Beltran-haters will come back out of the woodwork to pillory him for failing to get the runner home from third with less than two outs, but the guy has come through in that situation something like 65% of the time (per the on-screen display SNY flashed right before the whiff).

An extra insurance run or two would have made a big difference, obviously, as Pedro Feliciano promptly gave up the lead in the bottom of the eighth when this fucklick hit a two-run homerun to tie the game. Chris Duncan is generally as bad at hitting southpaws as Brett Myers is good at hitting his wife, and Feliciano has been murder on lefties this season (and in general), but those two facts blatantly disregarded each other and conspired to screw the Mets and left me with no choice but to pathetically cry myself to sleep. Again.

The real hero last night was Jerry Manual, who deftly displayed the same lack of managerial ingenuity that made Willie Randolph the target of much fan ire. With the game tied at seven in the bottom of the ninth, the Cardinals were set to bring up the meat of their order: Pujols, Ankiel and Glaus. Fine, tie game, other team's best hitters coming up, rollercoaster of a game possibly hanging in the balance. What to do? If you're Jerry Manuel, you bring in the worst pitcher in your bullpen and a dude who sauntered around the field before the game wearing a Hello Kitty backpack (that, of course, has nothing to do with his crappiness). Billy Wagner is twiddling his thumbs in the bullpen, and he's the best pitcher you've got, and I don't care that it isn't a save situation or that you might have a save situation next inning or the inning after. If you don't get through their team's best hitters RIGHT NOW then there won't be a game to save later. I've basically accepted the fact that a manager will never bring in his best reliever to pitch to the heart of the order in the seventh or eighth inning, even though it may be the highest leverage inning of the game. It's the right thing to do, but it doesn't happen and it might never happen because closers like to pitch the ninth inning. But this *was* the ninth inning, AND it was the highest leverage situation of the game, and Manual still made the absolute wrong decision and the Mets lost the game because of it. There were other things the Mets screwed up, and even if Muniz (or Wagner) came in to shut down Pujols, Ankiel and Glaus, there's no guarantee that the Mets would have won the game anyway. But you've gotta give them a chance, Jerry.

Of course Carlos Muniz retired Pujols and Ankiel, and of course Glaus hit his second homerun of the game. Of course the Mets lost, and of course I'm moving on.

Big winners: David Wright, +22.5% WPA, Damion Easley, +18.5% WPA
Big losers: Carlos Muniz, -35.8% WPA, Pedro Martinez, -25.4% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Damion Easley two-run double, +14.7% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: You know what, -46.3% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -80.9%
Total batter WPA: +30.9%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by JoshNY; his effort in last night's game thread embiggens us all.

Name	# of Posts
JoshNY	25
Prince	19
JohnPeterson	12
ZaBlanc	11
DoctorK16	10
metsexile	4
gogomets	4
itsmetsforme	4
Reg Dunlop	4
LOUtheMETfan	3
goth brooks	1

Open Thread - Game 84: Mets vs Cardinals

Eric Simon — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 22:17:22 -0000

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Pedro Martinez	2-2	6	6	0	0	0	0	30.1	42	25	24	4	11	21	7.12	1.75

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Joel Pineiro	2-4	12	12	0	0	0	0	70.2	74	35	34	8	16	36	4.33	1.27

One Hand Clapping

Eric Simon — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 06:43:35 -0000

I didn't see much of the game, but I heard good things. Tony Armas was poor early, better later on. The Mets' bats showed up. The bullpen was strong, Reyes got caught stealing again. Church is already back in the swing of things; Beltran needs a day off, maybe? Schneider needs a bunch of days off?

We went to free movie night again, and the Mets won, again. We saw Wanted, which was quite a bit better than the commercials made it look (for once). I never read the graphic novels; I've never read any graphic novels except for TMNT, and was shocked -- and delighted, at the time -- to find that my favorite mutated amphibians were far more crass and violent in their graphic novel incarnation. I'm told that the Wanted film adaptation isn't terribly true to the original story, but that was irrelevant to me as I had no basis for comparison. I'm not going to do a whole review thing here, but if you're into the whole action/betrayal/revenge story "arc" then you'll enjoy it.

Big winners: Ramon Castro, +23.2% WPA, David Wright, +18.2% WPA
Big losers: Tony Armas, -5.5% WPA, Jose Reyes, -11.1% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Ramon Castro two-run double, +20.1% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Ankiel two-run blast, -17.1% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +39.8%
Total batter WPA: +10.2%

I'm going to try to get all of the June game forms filled out and the swag contest results for the month tabulated today or tonight. I know you guys are champing at the bit.

Open Thread - Game 83: Mets vs Cardinals

Eric Simon — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 22:20:10 -0000

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No Data Available

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Todd Wellemeyer	7-2	15	15	0	0	0	0	88.1	77	36	34	11	28	68	3.46	1.19

Myers Demoted - The Good Phight

Eric Simon — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 21:45:23 -0000

Brett Myers was dropped from the Phillies' starting rotation to... the Triple-A Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs' starting rotation. It'll be just like old times, when Brett used to beat his wife following bus trips to visiting cities instead of after charter jet trips. Ahh, memories.

Mid-Season Report Cards

Eric Simon — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 01:32:56 -0000

Everybody else is doing it, so why can't we? Forty-one-ish games into the season and the Mets have had an up-and-down three months to say the least. Things could be a whole lot worse, though, even if the Mets have fallen well short of expectations to this point. That's what these mid-season report cards often come down to: how did Player X perform relative to what could have been reasonably expected of him? So with that as our lead-in, here are my first-half grades.

Rotation - C: The starting rotation appeared to be a strength heading into the season, and I guess relative to the offense it *has* been pretty good, but again we're talking about expectations and in that regard the Mets' starters have disappointed as a whole. Mets starters are eighth in the league in ERA and ninth in WHIP, which is fine for a middling team with a small-town payroll, but these are the Ny Effing Mets with more money committed to player salaries than any other team in the National League, so middle of the pack isn't going to cut it. Pedro has been either awful or injured and, while I think he'll pull out of it alright, he's giving the Mets nothing right now. Santana has been fine; unspectacular, but still very good. Oliver Perez, save his most recent outstanding start against the Yankees, has been equal parts terrible and inconsistent. Maine has been pretty good, though not last night.

Rock stars: Mike Pelfrey, I guess

Boxcar hobos: Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez

Bullpen - B-: This grade could be a bit higher because most of the bullpen principals have been quite good. Billy Wagner, with the exception of that execrable stretch of three games at the beginning of June, has been awesome. Scott Schoeneweis's low-three ERA seems unsustainable give his 12-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he's been solid despite any smoke and/or mirrors he keeps stashed in his locker. Joe Smith has been inconsistent, but his numbers are pretty good across the board. Feliciano continues to walk a lot of guys, but his ERA and strikeout rates are very strong again. Duaner Sanchez was said to be the key to this relief corps heading into the season, and he's been decent. Like Smith, his numbers are mostly solid, though his ERA is nigh four and his strikeout rate is unspectacular. Aaron Heilman was horrendous in April and May but ungodly in June, so there may be hope for him yet.

Rock stars: Billy Wagner, Pedro Feliciano

Boxcar hobos: Matt Wise, Jorge Sosa

Offense - C-: I'm a little torn on this grade because I'm not sure how much blame to assign to the players and how much should be heaped on the front office and ownership. The offense has not been very good, but a lot of the guys who haven't been very good were known before they even took a swing to not be very good. Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, Fernando Tatis: these are not good players. I hate them because they suck, but I don't blame them so much because even their respective mothers could have told us they were terrible. I'll go back to my favorite analogy to these bums: I don't blame a spoon for being unable to to cut my steak; it's a tool ill fit for the job, much like Tatis playing baseball. After a slow start, Jose Reyes has been terrific, and is at or around the top ten players in baseball in VORP. His power is much improved over last season and his walk rate has crept back up to the rate he established last season. Wright has been a little underwhelming, but I still feel like he could break out at any moment. Beltran has been his typical emotionally-subdued but otherwise extremely productive self. Delgado drove in nine runs the other day, so he's good for zippo over the next six weeks now. Church has been mostly terrific and partially injured, but his on-field performance has exceeded any expectations I had of him.

Rock stars: Ryan Church, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran (yes, Carlos Beltran)

Boxcar hobos: Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, Brian Schneider

Manager(s) - C: I don't really know how to evaluate managers, and I don't know if I ever will. Willie Randolph seemed like a nice enough guy, though he had awkward bullpen usage and often relied too heavily on established, ineffective veterans in all facets of play (bullpen, offense, defense). I didn't always care for his lineup construction, and rumors trickled in after his ouster that he had lost his clubhouse. All of this paints a pretty crummy picture of him as a manager, but even considering all of that I still don't know that he cost the Mets any more than a few games over the course of a season relative to a "great" manager, whomever that might be. Jerry Manual took over and has shown a bit more fire and a little less reliance on "his guys".

Front office - D-: Omar Minaya brought in Johan Santana for a truckload of money and a mixed bag of prospects, and despite his best efforts the Lastings Milledge deal has sorta worked out for the Mets so far (though perhaps not in the long run). However, his biggest failing (stop me if you've heard this one before) was his inability to provide reasonable contingency plans for injuries to Moises Alou and continued ineptitude from Carlos Delgado. That the first line of support has been the likes of Tatis, Anderson and Chavez is as big an indictment of Minaya's shortcomings as a GM as anything you could hold against Randolph as a manager. There are some important decisions to be made in the next three weeks about the viability of this team as a legitimate playoff contender, but despite assurances from ownership that his job is safe, Minaya has to feel that this could be a watershed season in his career as Mets GM. The NL East seems weak enough that a small bump could put the Mets over the top, but will Minaya trade away what few chips remain in the farm system for a shot at the postseason? Unfortunately, his short-term outlook and the Mets' long-term success may be diametrically opposed come July 31.

Overall - C-: The Mets are still just three (or so) games out in the NL East, but clearly they have failed to meet expectations in almost every area of their play. There's still a half-season to turn things around, but it'll get late early (Yogi!) if they keep losing every other game.

Agree or disagree, leave your grades in the comments. Or, go one step further and make some prognostications about the next 41 81 (or 40 80, now) games.

SB Nation Blog: Eric Simon

Is Jerry Really Any Better?

Open Thread - Game 86: Mets vs Phillies

An Empty Widget

Amazin' Avenue Swag Contest

A Split

Open Thread - Game 85: Mets vs Cardinals

Amazin' Avenue Swag Contest

Will They Ever Learn?

Open Thread - Game 84: Mets vs Cardinals

Amazin' Avenue Swag Contest

One Hand Clapping

Open Thread - Game 83: Mets vs Cardinals

An Empty Widget

Amazin' Avenue Swag Contest

Myers Demoted - The Good Phight

Mid-Season Report Cards