SB Nation User Blog: Eric Stephen

Merry Christmas

Eric Stephen — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 16:10:05 -0000

Tommy Lasorda as Santa Claus (per his Twitter page)

I know Christmas isn't until tomorrow, but a lot of people get together on Christmas Eve, too. Here's hoping you all have the best holiday season possible.

Help John Sickels & Minor League Ball

Eric Stephen — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 22:04:05 -0000

Help John Sickels & Minor League Ball

John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall.com is working on his 2010 prospect book, and has listed his preliminary list of Dodger prospects. Be sure to check it out, and offer comments and suggestions on who should be added or removed.

Dodgers Value Important Portables; Fans Need Potent Potables

Eric Stephen — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 14:20:03 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Tired of long lines at Dodger Stadium? Don't worry, portable concession stands are on the way!

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I have read and re-read Bill Shaikin's interview with Dodger President Dennis Mannion in the LA Times many times, trying to wrap my head around it. Every time I see the words, I get angry. Angry that the Dodgers have a man in Mannion running the baseball operations who doesn't seem to have a clue how teams are built.

On potentially receiving draft picks for offering Randy Wolf and/or Orlando Hudson arbitration:

And is it worth a premium draft pick? That's also showing bizarre behavior, in my opinion, in terms of teams bidding against themselves for draft picks. That's been going on for a while on the amateur side of the business. But it's happening now on the international side, with guys you don't know anything about.

It's strange to me to see teams operate in a way where they bid against themselves for unknown talent, and at the same time, you have this plethora of guys in the system that maybe are not developing appropriately, i.e. a (Ronald) Belisario. That's interesting stuff to me. I think it's really fascinating. It's probably the upside of having very tough economic times.

Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Bilingsley, James Loney, Russell Martin, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Ramon Troncoso, just to name a few, were all acquired by the Dodgers as amateurs. Young talent is the driving force behind a Dodger team that has reached two straight National League Championship Series. But Mannion -- who runs the baseball operations for the team, by the way -- doesn't see their value.

Mannion uses a diversion tactic here. Draft picks are a crap shoot, he says, but hey, look over here. Remember when we signed Ronald Belisario out of nowhere? Look, something shiny. Look over here instead!

My advice to Mannion, in order to deal with the problem of "guys you don't know anything about," is this: That's what scouts are for. You have Logan White. Use him.

Shaikin then asked about the concern over the cost of extra draft picks (Shaikin's question is in bold):

Since Wolf probably would have signed a long-term contract somewhere else even if the Dodgers had offered him arbitration, how worried were you about the millions it might cost to sign the draft picks you would have gotten in return?

You're dealing with a very fluid situation. Those millions that are potentially in play, they can manifest themselves where the opportunity is. If the opportunity is in buying more portable concession stands, then that's what you do. If the opportunity is buying some international talent that you have a very good handle on, that's what you do. In this particular world, you're making those assessments on a daily basis.

I like being able to have more opportunities to buy a hefeweizen and a Dodger Dog as much as the next guy, but I'd rather have a few more draft picks. Mannion uses another diversion tactic here: he was asked about draft picks, and answered about a choice between stadium upgrades and amateur international talent. Mannion's "portable concession stands" rings as hollow as Jamie McCourt's "50 Little League fields" comments last season.

I don't know how many times we've talked about this since the season ended, but the Dodgers will be good in 2010. There is too much talent still around to think otherwise. But investing in player development isn't a one-time event. I just hope the Dodgers figure it out before the cupboard runs dry.

Loney's Improvement a Key for 2010

Eric Stephen — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 03:27:27 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Including the playoffs, James Loney hit 13 of his 15 home runs on the road in 2009

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If this offseason has taught us anything so far, it's that the Dodger roster as it stands now, four days before Christmas, won't be much different than the one that opens the regular season on April 5 in Pittsburgh. The core of the team will carry this team as far as it's going to go. Most of that nucleus is young and on the upswing, which is good for a team that needs their improvement to fuel another postseason run.

These young players also fit a key requirement to be a Dodger these days, in that they are cheap, at least relatively so. Using Wins Above Replacement (on Fangraphs), the Dodgers' two best players last season were Matt Kemp (5.0 WAR) and Clayton Kershaw (4.2 WAR, tied with Casey Blake). Those two made a combined $871,000 in 2009, meaning they were two of the most valuable players in baseball. Many of these young players are due for raises in 2010, as the Dodgers lead baseball with nine arbitration-eligible players.

One of the most intriguing stories of 2010 will be the performance of first baseman James Loney. He is eligible for arbitration for the first time, and he will probably make somewhere between $3 million to $3.5 million next season. Loney has just over three years of service time, and here are some comparable first basemen heading into their fourth year in recent seasons:

			Stats Through 3rd Year
First Baseman	Year	Service Time	OPS+	Runs	RBI	4th Year Salary
Adam LaRoche	2007	3 years	114	187	213	$3.2 million
Kevin Youkilis	2008	3 yrs, 93 days	109	234	199	$3 million
Mike Jacobs	2009	3 yrs, 47 days	110	197	247	$3.25 million
James Loney	2010	3 yrs, 12 days	112	200	265	???
Service time courtesy of the great Cot's Baseball Contracts

Loney is not quite at the crossroads of his Dodger career, but he is getting closer. He plays first base, the most offensive-minded position in baseball, while last season Loney had a slugging percentage of .399. It's one thing to accept relatively low production from your first baseman when he is making $465,000, as Loney did in 2009, because the team can theoretically use the savings to spend money on other positions. Now that Loney will likely make $3 million or more, it's time to look at first base with a more critical eye.

I'm not saying it's time to cut bait on Loney. He will turn 26 in April, about to enter a time which is often considered the prime of a player's career. He also has the extreme home/road splits (.709 career OPS at Dodger Stadium, .900 OPS on the road), and if anyone can figure out how to harness Road Loney at home the Dodgers will benefit greatly. We can also look to the recent past to find another Dodger first baseman who struggled as he entered his arbitration seasons.

Eric Karros -- who is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this season, by the way -- was once in the very same shoes worn by Loney today. Karros won rookie of the year in 1992, hitting 20 home runs with 88 runs batted in, then struggled over the next two seasons. Loney took over Dodger first base duties in June 2007, and hit .331 with 15 dingers, only to descend into mediocrity over his next two seasons.

	Eric Karros		James Loney
	Year	OPS+ (NL 1B rank)	Year	OPS+ (NL 1B rank)
1st year	1992	106 (9th of 12)	2007	134 (4th of 16)
2nd year	1993	88 (13th of 15)	2008	103 (13th of 16)
3rd year	1994	95 (10th of 14)	2009	104 (13th of 16)

Heading into their first arbitration-eligible seasons, here's how Karros and Loney compare:

Pre Arbitration Years
Player	Years	Ages	PA	Runs	2B	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
Eric Karros	1991-1994	23-26	1710	188	79	57	215	.254/.298/.417	95
James Loney	2006-2009	22-25	1788	200	84	45	265	.295/.354/.451	112

Loney doesn't look so bad now, does he? That .298 on-base percentage for Karros really stands out. I don't remember caring too much about OBP back then, but wow. However, here is what Karros did during his three seasons of arbitration:

Eric Karros Arbitration Years
Year	Age	PA	Runs	2B	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
1995	27	620	83	29	32	105	.298/.369/.535	145
1996	28	670	84	29	34	111	.260/.316/.479	113
1997	29	700	86	28	31	104	.266/.329/.459	110
Totals		1990	253	86	97	320	.274/.337/.489	122

Throw in the fact that Loney is a year younger than Karros was, and it's not hard to see a scenario in which Loney comes into his own over the next three seasons. He'll pretty much have to, because the Dodgers need it.

Pierre Deal Complete; Link & Ely Come to LA

Eric Stephen — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:31:06 -0000

Pierre Deal Complete; Link & Ely Come to LA

The Dodgers and White Sox have finalized the Juan Pierre trade, with the Dodgers receiving pitchers Jon Link and John Ely from the White Sox, per Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.

Link is on the 40-man roster, which brings the Dodgers' total to 36. Link has two option years remaining. Ely was drafted in 2007, and doesn't have to be placed on the 40-man roster (for protection in the Rule 5 draft) until 2011.

"I first went to Mount Seorak with the thought that if I did not break out of my slump after the...

Eric Stephen — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 01:21:54 -0000

"I first went to Mount Seorak with the thought that if I did not break out of my slump after the tough climbs up this terrain, I would quit baseball," said Choi.

Former Dodger Hee Seop Choi recounts a tale of how hiking up a mountain helped revitalize his baseball career.

Dodgers Add Carroll-ing to Holiday Plans

Eric Stephen — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:25:57 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

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The Dodgers have signed utility man Jamey Carroll to a two-year contract, pending a physical, per Buster Olney of ESPN. Carroll, who bats right-handed, will likely be Blake DeWitt's caddy at second base in 2010, in addition to filling in at third base or perhaps the outfield if needed. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the deal is worth $3.85 million over two years, with incentives that could take the deal over $4 million.

Carroll, who turns 36 in February, has posted a .355 on-base percentage in each of the last two seasons with the Indians, but has little power. Carroll is one of two active major leaguers with a career OBP of .350 or higher and a slugging percentage lower than his OBP (minimum 1,000 PA):

OBP Greater Than SLG
Player	PA	OBP	SLG
Jamey Carroll	2515	.351	.350
Luis Castillo	7172	.369	.354

Carroll has been rated from slightly below average to slightly above average fielder at both second and third base in each of the last three seasons by both UZR (per Fangraphs) and Plus/Minus:

Jamey Carroll 2B Defense
Year	Innings	UZR	+/-
2007	431.1	+1.9	-1
2008	580.1	+0.1	-4
2009	467.0	+2.7	+6

Jamey Carroll 3B Defense
Year	Innings	UZR	+/-
2007	64.2	+0.4	0
2008	199.2	+1.8	+5
2009	156.0	+0.8	+3

In other words, Carroll won't kill you in the field. He played ten games in the corner outfield spots for Cleveland last season as well. Also, per Bill James Online, his defensive strengths at second seem to lie in his ability to field ground balls, a stark contrast to noted flyball hawk Orlando Hudson. Maybe Andre Ethier won't be so tentative now coming in on short flies to right field.

Carroll hails from Evansville, Indiana, as does Dodger hitting coach Don Mattingly, a hero of Carroll's youth. Both Carroll and Mattingly have teamed up with the Boys & Girls Club of Evansville to refurbish local baseball fields through the years. Here's an interview with Carroll from the 2008 Evansville event (the reporter sounds a little like Will Ferrell's impression of Harry Caray):

I can't say I'm a fan of giving Carroll a two-year deal, but at least he does provide some skills and versatility. Still, I can't shake the feeling that if you squint hard enough, Carroll looks an awful lot like Mark Loretta, signed by the Dodgers last season:

Player	Years	Ages	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
Jamey Carroll	2008-09	34-35	.276/.355/.343	89
Mark Loretta	2007-08	.35-36	.284/.352/.376	91

I eagerly look forward to Carroll's game-winning hit in Game 2 of the 2010 NLDS (much like his game-winning sacrifice fly off Trevor Hoffman in the 2007 Wild Card playoff game for the Rockies against the Padres).

There are now 35 players on the Dodgers' 40-man roster.

Juan Pierre Traded To White Sox

Eric Stephen — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:03:19 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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The Dodgers have traded outfielder Juan Pierre to the White Sox for two players to be named later, per Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. Brown also reports the Dodgers are picking up "about half of remaining salary."

Buster Olney of ESPN reports the Dodgers will pay $7 million (of the $10 million) to Pierre in 2010, and $3.5 million (of the $8.5 million) in 2011.

General manager Ned Colletti had this to say:

Juan always put the Dodgers first, even when it wasn’t in his personal best interest. In this day, that is a rare attribute. When he and I spoke at the end of the season, we agreed that if an opportunity presented itself in which his chance to play would be enhanced, we would pursue it and that’s what we’ve done. He deserved the chance to play more.

I don't expect the pitchers to be much. This deal is pure salary relief for the Dodgers. The Dodgers have until January 7 to pick the two players from the White Sox.

Because it is a rule that when writing about Juan Pierre, it must be mentioned what a great guy he is, I will not deviate from that. Pierre is a hard worker, and by all accounts a good teammate. This is not in dispute, as I have seen it with my own eyes. This has also been mentioned for three seasons by many in the mainstream media, often before noting his acutal production on the baseball field.

In the interests of full disclosure, I will admit that the day Pierre signed with the Dodgers I sent an email to my family with the subject "God Damnit" because I was so pissed off at the signing. I hold no ill will toward Pierre the person, but I just want to lay out the facts about Pierre the player.

From 2007 to 2009, there have been 234 players with 1,000 plate appearances. Pierre ranks...

211th in OPS+ (84)
218th in SLG (.357)

OK, that's not fair. Pierre's game is getting on base and scoring runs. Among those 234 major leaguers, Pierre ranks...

140th in OBP (.339)
133rd in runs/PA (12.63%)

Heading into 2007, the Dodgers had Matt Kemp, who at the time was thought by many to be unable to play center field. The Dodgers chose to give Pierre five years rather than signing a stopgap like Kenny Lofton for one year. After 2007, the Dodgers thought so much of Pierre's defense in center field that they signed Andruw Jones. Now, both Pierre and Jones are on the White Sox, still getting paid by the Dodgers, and the Dodgers have their man in center field who has been here all along.

Thank you, Juan Pierre, for playing well for the first part of the Manny Ramirez suspension, in May, and creating trade value that wasn't there before this season.

Young Slugging Dodger Outfielders

Eric Stephen — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 02:41:09 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

The Silver Slugging duo of Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp

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Highest slugging percentage by a Dodger outfielder, through age 24 season (minimum 1,000 plate appearances):

Dodger OF Through Age 24
Player	Years	PA	SLG
Raul Mondesi	1993-1995	1125	.504
Duke Snider	1947-1951	2232	.497
Pete Reiser	1940-1942	1379	.496
Matt Kemp	2006-2009	1801	.480
Tommy Davis	1959-1963	2191	.467

Highest slugging percentage by a Dodger outfielder, through age 27 season (minimum 1,000 plate appearances):

Dodger OF Through Age 27
Player	Years	PA	SLG
Babe Herman	1926-1930	2898	.567
Duke Snider	1947-1954	4189	.541
Pedro Guerrero	1978-1983	1974	.512
Raul Mondesi	1993-1998	3085	.508
Frank Howard	1958-1964	2321	.495
Andre Ethier	2006-2009	2227	.490

Thanks, as usual, to the amazing Baseball-Reference.com for the info.

Dodgers 2010 Minor League Deals

Eric Stephen — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 03:47:17 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Doug Mientkiewicz hopes to be healthy for more than the 20 plate appearances he got in 2009.

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Here's a brief rundown of the 2010 minor league deals signed by the Dodgers:

Pitchers

Luis Ayala RHP
2010 Age: 32
Per Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times, Miller will earn $750,000 if in the majors with a potential for $100,000 in incentives based on appearances.

Francisco Felix RHP
2010 Age: 26
Felix was in the Dodger organization since 2006, but became a minor league free agent in November.

Justin Miller RHP
2010 Age: 32
Per Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times, Miller will earn $850,000 if in the majors with a potential for $50,000 in incentives

Juan Perez LHP
2010 Age: 31
Perez pitched for the Pirates in parts of 2006 & 2007. He played in the Braves' organization in 2009, putting up a 3.47 ERA for Triple A Gwinnett, walking 5.7 batters and striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings.

Josh Towers RHP
2010 Age: 33
Per the Associated Press, Towers will earn $700,000 if in the majors or $100,000 if in the minors

Hitters

John Lindsey 1B
2010 Age: 33
Lindsey is a veteran of 15 minor league seasons with nary a major league at-bat. He was in the Dodger system in 2007 & 2008.

Doug Mientkiewicz 1B
2010 Age: 36
Mientkiewicz, who spent most of 2009 on the disabled list, has a good shot to make the team. If not, he can always become sliding instructor.

Angel Berroa SS
2010 Age: 32
Per Sports Illustrated, Berroa will earn $600,000 if in the majors or $81,000 if in the minors. Despite having a .291 OBP since the beginning of 2004, Berroa might just make the team in order to create comedy gold with Manny Ramirez like this:

Brian Barton OF
2010 Age: 28
Barton put up a 97 OPS+ in 82 games as a Rule 5 pick for the 2008 Cardinals, and spent last season in the Braves organization. Barton did appear in one game for the Braves in 2009, as a pinch runner, but was thrown out trying to steal. Barton has an aerospace engineering degree from the University of Miami, and it's hard not to root for a guy who once had this quote (from Jeff Passan on Yahoo in 2008):

I like to invest in knowledge. Anything that can help me learn about different people, different things. That’s what drives a lot of what I do and why people may think things I do are out of the ordinary. You can’t take away things you know.

Prentice Redman OF
2010 Age: 30
Here's a 2008 video of Redman and Josh Womack with some insane bat spinning tricks: