SB Nation User Blog: Eric in Madison

5 that are 26 or younger

Eric in Madison — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 18:18:04 -0000

I was looking at the basic pitching stats the other day and realized that the Twins have a chance to have 4 starters finish the season with:

a) 150+ innings

b) ERA+ above league average

c) and are all 26 or younger

and I was wondering how often that had happened. Then I realized that there is another American League team likely to do that this year: the Rays. Anyway, that got me to thinking more about the Twins rotation, and in particular the non-Liriano members of it--what can we make of the seasons they've had?

The first thing I noticed is that the defense, which overall has been below average at turning batted balls into outs, has been average or above average for all 4 of these guys. (The pitchers who have been hurt by the team's DER are Bonser, Hernandez, and Bass, mostly).

Blackburn is the one that has an average GB rate, the others are all significant flyballers. This is why they give up so many homers, of course; Slowey is exactly league average in % of flyballs that go out, Baker slightly above average, and Perkins too, but all very close to average. Blackburn gives up less fly balls, and actually is below league average in FB/HR %.

Slowey and Baker have the above average K rates, along with the low walk rates, Blackburn and Perkins lack the K's, though they both also have the good control. Perkins seems like the odd man out, here--mostly flyballs and limited strikeouts is not a great combination. Indeed, he has the lowest K rate and the highest BB rate among the 4.

And in fact, he also has the worst FIP--the other 3 are clustered very close to 4, Perkins is at 4.77. (Bonser, by far the unluckiest pitcher on the staff, has a FiP of 4.20). I owe an apology to Nick Blackburn, frankly, who I've always thought was the weakest pitcher of the 4. In fact, his FIP is essentially indistinguishable from Baker's and Slowey's, well better than Perkins.

Another note is that Blackburn and Perkins have had the hardest schedules among the 4, especially Blackburn. 14 of Backburn's 25 starts have been against the top 6 R/G offenses in the AL, (other than the Twins), plus he had to start in Colorado. Perkins has had 12 of 19 starts against those 6 teams, though he got both Washington and SD in interleague. Baker has had 10 of 20 against the top offenses, and SLowey has had by far the easiest-- 8 of 19 starts against the good AL offenses, plus he got both Washington and SD.

Ultimately, Blackburn has been better than I thought, Perkins a little worse. I still have the most confidence in Baker and Slowey going forward, because they have the best K:BB rates and are above league average in K/9, which is predictive. They will both give up an above average number of homers, but a lot of successful pitchers give up lots of homers. But I'm now wondering if Blackburn might have enough ancillary skills to maintain a career. Ultimately, I think he'll have to develop into a true ground baller to survive, since his HR/FB rate is lower than it will be long term, so he'll have to limit the flyballs even more. Still, he's performed admirably this year. Perkins has been OK, but he's going to have to find a way to strike more guys out. He has the lowest K rate among the 4, and survive I think he's going to have to increase it, which seems possible but what do I know?

At any rate, it's nice to see the Twins go with the young guys, and it certainly is an inexpensive and potentially effective rotation--one stud (Liriano) and 4 guys clustered around league average is a good rotation. We'll see if it's kept intact, how they perform, and whether Bonser ever gets another chance...

what say you?

Twins Free Agent Signings--A Review

Eric in Madison — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 19:19:18 -0000

You know, the Twins organization is marked by it's continuity. The names remain the same; promotions come from within. Bill Smith replaces Ryan, Radcliff and Rantz are long-timers, etc.

The Twins as an organization do some things very well. Their drafting and development is good--see Mauer and Morneau; see 4/5ths of the starting rotation--all drafted by the Twins. That's very, very solid. Obviously, they make mistakes like every team, but their ability to generate talent is impressive.

They scout other organizations--particularly their minor leagues, very well. See Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, Lew Ford, Jason Bartlett, Alexi Casilla, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, Matt Guerrier, etc.

What they haven't done well, however, is sign major league free agents. Part of this is obviously budgetary: the Twins don't go out and sign Carlos Beltran. However, they have shopped in the bargain bin to solve problems, and it's justified to call them out for their failure to succeed. Below is a review of the free agent signings over the past five years. It isn't a pretty picture:

2004

Jose Offerman-- 96 OPS+ in 202 PA

Henry Blanco 60 OPS+ in 353 PA, though he did throw well

Terry Mulholland (Not technically an FA signing--they bought him from the Mariners in the spring of 2004): 2 seasons of mediocre, low-level pitching--most memorable for his star turn in Batgirl's opera.

Aaron Fultz 50 innings, 94 OPS+ as a poor LOOGY

2005

Juan Castro: a thoroughly execrable year and a half of play, both hurting the team's chances to win and inexplicably holding Jason Bartlett back.

Mike Redmond: Ah, a truly useful player; one of the better backup catchers in the majors over the past few seasons.

Jason Tyner: 3 mostly useless seasons as a part-timer who couldn't really hit or field.

2006

Rondell White: Two disaster seasons marred by injury and an inability to hit.

Tony Batista: Horrible in part of a season. Completely predictable, and arguably the worst, most craven move Terry Ryan made in his tenure--everyone knew that 3rd base was a problem if they were moving Cuddyer, and this was a pathetic attempt to solve it.

Ruben Sierra: transient, injured, half-season that showed he was toast.

Dennys Reyes: a reasonably useful LOOGY--had a great year in 2006, mediocre since--innings so limited that results are almost random given the sample sizes.

2007

Jeff Cirillo: terrible hitter over 174 PAs before he was jettisoned. Another vague attempt to partially solve 3B that failed.

Ramon Ortiz: Lousy pitching (84 OPS+) in half a season, but did get turned into Matt Macri!

Sidney Ponson: Disaster.

2008

Mike Lamb--Yet another attempt to fix 3B. 2 year deal, he's already buried on the bench after half a season. Hasn't hit, doesn't really field well, lost his job primarily to a minor league veteran.

Adam Everett: Injured, useless. Attempt to replace, at least temporarily, their traded shortstop, was on the verge of being cut until the Casilla injury. Simply can't hit enough to play.

Livan Hernandez: Apparently on the verge of being cut after 2/3rds of a season; ate a lot of innings, but belched up a lot of runs. Poor results, only marginally better than the Ortiz signing.

NOTE: Craig Monroe wasn't technically a free agent--though he was in spirit. Also terrible.

That, friends, is not a good record. It suggests a couple of things to me, and I wonder if you agree or have other ideas. First, this method of trying to find lightening in a bottle with inexpensive veterans isn't working. (AND THIRD BASE IS STILL A GAPING WOUND. Sorry, needed to get that out of the system).

The problem is that they make these signings, and then don't pursue other solutions, thus costing them, not in dollars but in opportunities and in talent. Wasting 2 months on someone who can't play, then being left with the options you didn't think were good enough in the first place.

Thus, they should stop it. Stop trying to grab these types of players to be any more than backups. Either open up the wallet to chase after a higher quality of free agent, or solve your problems another way. Spend some talent, if not money. Trade for Kouzmanoff, don't sign Lamb. This is essentially what they did to fill left field--traded talent to get Delmon Young. Young has yet to be great, but it's been a hell of a lot better than Rondell White. It's my opinion they are much better off making those sorts of deals than signing guys with forks in their backs and hoping.

Something that would never happen

Eric in Madison — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 14:37:22 -0000

But I'd consider it--and I wonder if anyone else would. Would you trade for Manny Ramirez? I think I might, actually--what say you?

I would install him as the full-time DH, DFA Monroe, and create a sort of platoon between Kubel and Gomez, with Span shifting between center and right depending on which of the other two are playing. Of course, if Cuddyer comes back, it creates a playing time problem, but I'd worry about that when the time comes.

Actually, if Cuddyer is anywhere close to returning, it isn't out of the realm that the Sox would take him back for Ramirez--I'd actually do that, I think. I don't know what the Sox would be looking for, but it couldn't be much in terms of inexpensive prospects given Manny's salary and issues.

He's owed something around 7M for the rest of this year, and then there are two team option years at 20M. As much as the Twins cry poverty, they could pick it up for next year as well. Manny can freaking hit, and as a DH, it keeps his knees healthier, and you don't have the defensive mishaps.

I know this is completely outside the Twins box, and I'm not sure I would do it--but something fun to talk about while the trade deadline approaches without activity.

Ruminations on a Poor Offense

Eric in Madison — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 20:09:02 -0000

As we know, the Twins have had problems scoring runs in the early going. Their 3.6 runs per game is only better than the Royals in the AL, masking what has been a good start by the rotation. We also know that it's early. Is that all it is? Small sample? Will things get better? What's been going on?

I think it's almost a certainty that things will get better, if by better we mean they will score 3.6 runs per game. That would result in 583 runs for the year. I'm confident it will be better than that.

Still, there are some numbers that indicate to me some deep seated problems that I suspect will hold back the offense. First: they aren't having bad luck on BABIP. They are currently T-4 in the AL in BABIP, at .301. This is true even though they have the lowest LD% in the league. We can hope the LD% increases a little, but I doubt they will see their BABIP increase significantly.

Here's where the problem is: they are 3rd worst in the AL in P/PA, last in the league in walks, and they have the highest GB% in the league. This scares the hell out of me, frankly. They are swinging early and hitting ground balls, Not a good combination. It results in a relatively high number of singles, lots of early outs, and lots of double plays. (They are 5th in GIDP despite being last in OBP). It also results in relatively easy outings for opposing pitchers, since they are getting a lot of outs in 1-3 pitches.

What it does not result in is any power at all. In a game that requires patience and power, the Twins have neither. And while I'm confident things will get somewhat better, it's difficult to see where the significant change comes from. The Twins have an approach that doesn't encourage patience. They lack the players to hit for a lot of power.

I said at the beginning of the year I thought they would score 725 runs--a low total just a few more than last year. I wouldn't change my prediction at this point, but I'd be comfortable taking the under.

Bullpen Usage

Eric in Madison — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 12:25:12 -0000

After the two ugly losses in Detroit, I thought a discussion about bullpen usage would be timely. I'm not here to bash Gardenhire--that isn't interesting to me. My point is this: in two straight games, the Twins had late leads. In two straight games Detroit scored the winning runs against the Twins bullpen. In two straight games, the Twins best reliever didn't pitch.

2008: Joe Nathan is behind Guerrier, Neshek, and Bass in innings

2007: Behind Guerrier in innings, even with Neshek and behind him in appearances

2006: Behind Crain, Rincon, and Guerrier

Here's the thing: this is what every team does, and it makes very little sense to me. Wouldn't you want your best pitchers to pitch more than your lesser pitchers? And yet, because of a nonsensical rule, it doesn't happen.

I understand the value in having defined roles for your pitching staff. What I don't understand is the definition of the "closer" role. It is so limiting in the use of your best reliever that the role doesn't include, say, tie games. Further, I don't understand being so inflexible within those roles that your best reliever pitches so infrequently.

It seems to me that the rigidity with which we use relievers has gone well past the point of usefulness. It's one of the reasons why teams now have 12 man staffs, and it didn't help the Twins in Detroit.

I'm interested in what others think. Is there a better way? Without asking your best guy to go 120 innings?

Fascinating situation developing for Red Sox

Eric in Madison — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 16:22:30 -0000

The Red Sox are not taking the field today in Ft. Myers against the Jays as we speak.

They are scheduled to leave today after their game to go to Japan and on a 20 day trip. Apparently, this morning, various contractual issues they thought were resolved about this trip became up in the air. The team has decided not to take the field or GO TO JAPAN until this is resolved.

The issues appear to revolve around pay for coaches and staff going on the trip. The players thought the staff was going to get compensated extra for the trip, but now MLB is saying no, and the players are boycotting--in support of the staff.

I assume this will get resolved, but good for the players.

PECOTA foreses 74-88

Eric in Madison — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 17:15:52 -0000

I won't show everything, since it's subscription, but follow over the jump for some of the highlights.

Here's PECOTA's weighted mean projection:

RS: 709
RA: 779

Playing time is distributed how you would expect, with the assumption that Gomez will get 60% of the CF time and Harris will be the more-or-less regular 2B.

They anticipate Baker, Bonser and Slowey to have the most innings, with Liriano at 110 IP and the 5th spot (and Liriano's missing innings) going to a combo of Blackburn, Perkins, Humber, and Mulvey. This was done before they Hernandez signing, obviously.

They anticipate negative VORP from CF (Gomez and Span (in a little time) are both below replacement, and Pridie (in a little time) is about exactly replacement). They also anticipate negative VORP from SS (Everett, who can't hit).

It's a pretty pessimistic offensive projection, really, with Lamb barely over replacement, significant regression from Morneau, and overall less runs than last season's offensive catastrophe. I trust PECOTA, and don't think this is going to be a good run scoring team, but even I would take the over on 709 RS.

Pitching not too many surprises--Baker, Bonser, and Slowey all in the mid-4s range for ERA, Liriano better but low innings, and the rest of the starters arrayed around replacement level.

Mike Lamb Signed

Eric in Madison — Fri, 14 Dec 2007 22:57:51 -0000

Joe C. Reporting

The Twins signed Mike Lamb for 2 years with an option for 2010. I can't say I love this following the Everett signing; it's nice to be agressive in filling holes, but they are filling them with below average players. if 3/4 of the infield is Harris, Everett, Lamb, that's not so great.

Sunday's Santana Thread

Eric in Madison — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 19:46:36 -0000

Since Jesse hasn't posted one...

It appears that Hughes, Cabrera, 3rd guy is the Yanks offer, and the hold up is the 3rd guy. Yanks possibly threatening to pull it off the table by Tuesday--let them, I say. You HAVE to be willing not to take a deal.

Sox now (per Olney) now willing to include Ellsbury, but not in a deal that also has Lester, which strikes me as odd, but we're getting closer to what I want: Ellsbury, Lester, Lowrie. I take that one.

What ya hear, what ya got?

Anyone else interested in Carlos Quentin?

Eric in Madison — Tue, 07 Aug 2007 19:25:57 -0000

The D'Backs apparently just signed Eric Byrnes to a 3 year, $30 million extension (and Torii Hunter's agent just popped open a bottle of champagne). Word is they are shopping Quentin. I want him. Anyone else?

Carlos Quentin is a 24 year old right handed hitting corner outfielder. He has raked everywhere, with the exception of the start of this year, when he slumped in Arizona, and has been optioned back to AAA. He hit in the minors all the way through, with good power, and has a 1:1 K to BB ratio in about 250 AAA games. He debuted in the majors last year, and while his average was down (.253), he posted a .342 OBP and a .530 SLG, which is a monster ISO. He doesn't strikeout too much, and he walks a lot. He's had some shoulder problems, but I think he's OK.

PECOTA suggests a future where he goes .290/.380/.500 every year. Now, that assumes Arizona, which is a hitter's park, but even taking something away for park effects, that's an effective player, especially for someone who should have two more seasons pre-arbitration.

No doubt Arizona wants pitching, and probably cheap pitching. I'd give up Slowey, certainly; do you think that would do it?