SB Nation User Blog: Erik Hahmann

The Pains Of Expectations

Erik Hahmann — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 17:20:15 -0000

Winning is great. But winning can also suck. When you win, your fanbase expects you to keep winning. When you're not winning, everyone asks why you're not winning and comes up with their own theories to get the team winning again.

Ok, enough about winning. I'm really here to talk about expectations. Last season the Rays finished with a record of 97-65 and secured home filed advantage in the playoffs. The team's Pythagorean Win/Loss record was 92-70, which would have still been good enough to land the Wild Card, but without home field advantage who knows how far the team gets last season. The team won an abnormally high number of close games, something that surely could not be duplicated this season.

So far this year the Rays are six games over .500 at 44-38, but have a Pythagorean Win/Loss of 48-34, which would put them tied with Boston in the win column. On this date last season the Rays were 22 games over .500 and held a two game lead over Boston, granted they had played a few more games. If this were last season and the Rays had a 44-38 record after 82 games we would all be estatic. Last year the Rays probably played a little above their head, and this season they're seemingly being evened out and playing a bit under it. I'm not saying the Rays can't get a few extra bounces to go their way and climb back to the top of the AL East, but the way things are going it doesn't look likely.

Say you're a small business owner and you work really hard in creating a product that everyone loves and is wildly successful. You're a hit, you're a star. But every year the market changes, the competition changes, and it makes things that much tougher for a small business owner like yourself to keep up the same level of success.

Winning is the magic formula that cures all that ales you. It's what's in the suitcase in Pulp Fiction. Karl Marx famously said 'Religion is the opiate of the people'; I think the same can be said for winning. Our expectations in this area have been raised, but before we get our heads too far into the clouds lets not forget where our heads where last season.

Rays Bats Go Silent In Loss To Rangers

Erik Hahmann — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 13:47:27 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

2 days ago: Tampa Bay Rays' B.J. Upton hits an RBI single off Texas Rangers pitcher Tommy Hunter in the fifth inning of a baseball game, Friday, July 3, 2009, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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For the second consecutive game the Rays offense failed to provide any help to the pitching staff.

As R.J. pointed out, Kazmir didn't pitch poorly at all, at least not compared to what he had been doing. The offense was a different story. Facing a pitcher with very limited major league experience the best offense in baseball was not able to put together enough to get Kazmir the win, mustering only one run on three hits over Tommy Hunter's 5.1IP. They did manage three walks, but were not able to capitalize on the extra base runners. B.J. Upton was responsible for the lone bright spot of the night with his RBI single in the 5th inning.

After the starters exited the game the bullpens came in and locked the game down over the final four innings. Over those four innings neither team would record a hit, and only one player from either team would reach second base. Grant Balfour pitched two innings and struck out two batters. Since his poor outing June 7th at the Yankees when he allowed two runs on three hits in 0.1IP Balfour hasnt allowed a single runner to cross the plate, lowering his ERA from 6.31 to 4.36 over that time.

The Rays face rookie Derek Holland tonight who has a 9.00ERA and a .392BAA in 23IP at home this season. Hopefully the Rays bats can take advantage of that.

Joe Nelson Is Lights Out In Rays Victory

Erik Hahmann — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 11:25:02 -0000

This is the Joe Nelson that we were hoping to see.

After a good start to the season Nelson experienced a rough month of May. Nelson's ERA rose from a 2.70 on May 1st to a 6.23 on May 31st. We all know ERAs for relievers can be flukey, especially early in the season, but that is still a huge jump. Nelson didn't look right and we even talked on this site about the possibility that Nelson was injured. Whatever problems Nelson was having in May seem to have been corrected in June.

In six June appearances totaling 7.1 IP Nelson has been fantastic, not allowing a single hit or run while giving up just one walk and striking out seven batters. In last night's victory Nelson pitched 1.1 innings and struck out 3 against a hot Colorado lineup. Aside from DRB favorite Iceman J.P. Howell, Nelson may be the Rays best reliever going. Keep it up, Joe.

Kapler Continues Power Display In Win vs Nationals

Erik Hahmann — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 22:03:14 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

22 days ago: Tampa Bay Rays' Gabe Kapler runs by Washington Nationals pitcher Ross Detwiler after hitting a two-run home run in the sixth inning to tie the baseball game Sunday, June 14, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Brian Blanco)

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Thank You, Gabe Kapler.

Kapler has taken a lot of grief this season, and it's mostly been justified. His .610 OPS isn't going to cut it in the long run. Kapler may still moved in some capacity at some point, but in his last three games he has been a big part of the Rays success.

In last Monday's game at the Yankees Kapler hit his first home run as a Ray, a game tying two run homer off of Andy Pettitte. It doesn't seem like much now because the Rays ended up losing that game, but at the time it was huge. Kapler had been hitless in his previous 6 games before facing Pettitte that night. Kapler's next game would be Friday night against the Nationals. The game was knotted up 3-3 in the 8th inning when right handed Kapler was inserted as a pinch hitter to face the lefty Ron Villone. After Nick Johnson somehow couldn't catch a foul ball that would have ended the inning, Kapler took the next pitch and drove it over the left field wall to give the Rays a 4-3 lead. After giving the Nationals an early 4-0 lead the Rays put runners on second and third with one out in the 4th inning. Kapler was next up and smacked a single into the left field scoring Pena and cutting into the Nationals lead. The Rays would add another run in the inning to make it a two run deficit. After a Gabe Gross walk in the 6th inning Kapler came to the plate as the tying run. Naturally, the Hebrew Hammer took a pitch and hooked it just over the short wall in left field, tying the game up at 4 runs a piece.

That's three home runs in his last three games. All of which have either tied the game or put the Rays ahead. Those three home runs don't totally wipe out his poor stats up to this point, but maybe they're an indication that he's heading in the right direct. Kapler has traditionally been a slow starter. His career OPS by month from April-June are .702, .735, .755. I'm not saying he's going to put up a .755 OPS this month, but it's not impossible. With the break out of Ben Zobrist and the steady production of players like Willy Aybar, Kapler's future with the Rays is uncertain This could all just be a mirage and Kapler could go back to hitting like he has so far this season, or it could potentially be the start of a hot streak. From all accounts Gabe Kapler seems like a fantastic guy(just ask friend of the site Jonah Keri) and I'd hate to see him get DFA'd. So for his sake, and the team's, I'm really hoping it's the latter.

Pat Burrell To Be Activated From DL Tomorrow; Matt Joyce To Durham

Erik Hahmann — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 02:41:38 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

about 1 month ago: Kansas City Royals catcher Miguel Olivo, left, and Tampa Bay Rays' Matt Joyce watch his two-run homer off Kansas City reliever Roman Colon during the eighth inning inning of a baseball game Tuesday, June 2, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. Joyce had four RBIs in Tampa Bay's 6-2 win. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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To make room for Pat Burrell on the roster the Rays will option OF Matt Joyce back to AAA Durham(h/t @tborays). Joyce was hitting .188/.270/.500 in 32Ab's this season. Joyce got off to a hot start after being recalled in late May, but had gone hitless in his last six games, going 0-15 over that span.

Joyce will get th play every day at AAA while the Rays figure out how to juggle the playing time of several players, namely Ben Zobrist and Willy Aybar. With SS Jason Bartlett coming back soon it will be interesting to see how the 2B situation pans out. Will Ben Zobrist and Willy Aybar split time? Will Aybar start the majority of time at 2B while Zobrist gets the bulk of playing time in RF against LHP? Will Gabe Kapler be sent packing? I'm not sure.

A Critique On Local Media

Erik Hahmann — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 00:23:42 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Willy Aybar CAN play third base.. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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We've never really critiuqued the local media on this site. For some reason I'm in a different mood today.

Recently in his 2 Cents Worth column, Tom Jones gives us "3 Things we learned about the Rays over the weekend." I'll start with number 1.

1. Willy Aybar can't play third base.

Well that's just not true at all. Yes, Aybar made a key late inning error while filling in for Evan Longoria in the loss to the Yankees on Sunday, and did have two errors in two games, but does that really mean he can't play the position? No, no it does not. Jones seems to want to judge Aybar on those two games alone and totally forget about last season. In 2008 Willy Aybar started 40 games at third base, mostly while Longoria was injured, and posted a UZR of 2.4 and a UZR/150 of 8.1. This season Aybar has only started 9 games at third and has a UZR of -0.1 and a UZR/150 of 0.7. If you look back at his career numbers, his UZR has improved each season since 2005. He's never going to be Evan Longoria with the glove, but please don't say he can't field the position based on an overreaction to one game.

2. The Rays still need a closer.

RJ has been a champion of the Rays Dont Need A "Closer" movement all season, with examples here, here, and here to name a few. And it's true, the Rays do not need a closer to be successful. Elite closers are very hard to come by and the Rays are not able to go out and spend the money necessary to acquire one, nor should they. The bullpen does need to improve, and before the end of the season you should see some changes made, but a closer wouldn't magically fix the problems.

3. David Price is ready to pitch at this level.

This one is fine.

I don't mean to rip Tom Jones, but when you say reactionary things like "Willy Aybar can't play third base" when statistics clearly prove otherwise it's hard to let that go. And we wonder why a lot of our fanbase isn't as educated as they could be.

6/9 Post Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays

Erik Hahmann — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 02:15:07 -0000

Well...that was an unsatisfying way to start a home stand.

Dan Wheeler's Imcompetence Allows Randy Choate To Save Rays Victory

Erik Hahmann — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 19:55:49 -0000

This is really getting old. I'm not going to recap the bottom of the 9th inning, nor am I going to write a long vitriolic paragraph ripping Dan Wheeler to shreds. I've already done that too many times to count this season. But Dan, there is a reason we call you Mr. Low Leverage on this site and why your nickname is Cardiac. Even with a four run lead I didn't trust you to get three outs.

No one should question Maddon's decision to put Wheeler into the game. He had already used two of his best relievers in Balfour and Howell and they failed to get the job done, albeit due to some spotty umpiring. Wheeler just happened to be next in line. Thankfully he was able to get two outs and allow Randy Choate to convert his third save in as many chances. I don't know what the Rays plan on doing with Wheeler, but with the way he's pitched this season, and the second half of last season for that matter, I doubt he'll end the season as a Ray.

Just for fun here's Wheeler's strikezone plot, it's not pretty:

via brooksbaseball.dustinkikuchi.com

On a happier note, can anyone stop Joe Dillon? Today he was 3-3 with 3 singles and the game tying RBI in his first ever at bat against Mariano Rivera. In his past two games he's 6-7 with 6 singles and 1 RBI. Not too bad for a 4th string infielder.

B.J Upton and Carl Crawford Propel Rays To Victory

Erik Hahmann — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 23:53:56 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

about 1 month ago: Tampa Bay Rays' Michel Hernandez (41) waits at the plate to congratulate teammate B.J. Upton, right, after scoring on his two-run home run off Kansas City Royals reliever Jamey Wright during the eighth inning of a baseball game Thursday, June 4, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. Upton's home run proved to be the game-winner in the 3-2 win over the Royals. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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When most teams put a man in scoring position in each of the first five innings, you expect them to score a few runs. Or at least ONE run. Well, the Rays are not most teams.

After being shut out by Gil Meche for the first six innings of tonight's game despite many scoring opportunities, the Rays finally got something going in the 7th as Carl Crawford made it 2-1 with his fourth home run of the season. As Crawford continues to hit well and steal bases at a Brockian pace, the man batting in front of him is beginning to heat up.

B.J. Upton doesn't like to waste home runs. His first homer of the season was a walk off against the Indians. His second came the following day, putting the Rays up 1-0 after they had been completely dominated by Carl Pavano for the first three innings. His third, obviously, was tonight. With Michel Hernandez on first with two outs, the Rays trailing 2-1, and the prospect of facing Royals' closer Joakim Soria, Upton lifted the first pitch he saw from Jamey Wright into the left field seats. We've talked ad nauseam on this site about B.J. Upton's struggles and his eventual regression to the mean, but you're starting to see it now. Upton has a hit in all but one game since May 21st, raising his average from .186 to .218 going into today's game, and is currently on an 8 game hit streak. I know the Royals don't exactly have a great rotation outside of Greinke but Upton killed them in this series, going 5-11 with 2 doubles, 1 home run, 2 steals, 3 RBI, and 3 walks. It's clear that his shoulder is still bothering him, and no one knows exactly how long that is going to last, but to all of you fairweather fans out there who have been booing him this season, please don't start cheering as Upton rounds into form. He startin to get back that swagga.

Andy Sonnanstine Pounds Strike Zone In Rays Victory

Erik Hahmann — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 03:22:42 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

about 1 month ago: Tampa Bay Rays starter Andy Sonnanstine pitches against the Kansas City Royals during the fourth inning of a baseball game Tuesday, June 2, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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In his last start Andy Sonnanstine's control was off and his location erratic. He would last only 3 innings and give up eight runs. Tuesday night would be much different. Sonnanstine's control was greatly improved and his location was spot on, resulting in one of his best games of the season

Tonight was vintage Sonnanstine. He mixed his pitches very well, using three varities of fastball, a changeup, curveball and a slider according to BrooksBaseball. His most effective pitch of the night was the slider, which he threw 15 times for an 86.67 strike percentage. Sonnanstine used the tremendous amount of movement he gets on his pitches to generate 11 groundball outs compared to only 6 flyball outs.

Sonnanstine is at his best when he's missing low, and tonight he did just that. In his previous start on May 27th at Cleveland, Sonnanstine was missing up and out of the zone and basically didn't throw a single pitch inside to the left handed heavy Indian lineup.

May 27th:

via brooksbaseball.dustinkikuchi.com

Compare that with last night's game:

via brooksbaseball.dustinkikuchi.com

You can see Sonnanstine pitched inside much more to left handed hitters and when he did miss, it was more down in the zone. You can also clearly see seven pitches on that plot that were called balls that were inside the zone, but since Kyle Davies had 10+ of those pitches complaining doesn't work. Tonight, Andy Sonnanstine pitched exactly how Andy Sonnanstine needs to pitch to be successful. Yes, he allowed a couple of home runs, but he didn't walk anyone. He's going to give up home runs; it comes with the territory of not having dominant stuff. When Sonnanstine doesn't allow any free passes and has the control and location that he showed tonight it's easy to see why this organization is so high on him.