SB Nation User Blog: Erik Hahmann

An Interview With Carson Cistulli

Erik Hahmann — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 03:38:51 -0000

Some may call it unusual. Others may call it unorthodox. I call Carson Cistulli's particular style of writing wild entertaining. You can find his work in a variety of places across the web, including FanGraphs, The Hardball Times, and Rotosynthesis . Today, you'll find him here answering a few questions in his own Cistullian way:

Erik: The obligatory leadoff question: What should the Rays do with Carl Crawford?

Carson Cistulli: You're killing me, Hahmann. You ask Rob Neyer and Dave Cameron this, and then me? You seem to have me confused with some sort of baseball analyst.

I will say this -- that whatever Friedmann and Co. do, I'll probably applaud it. Seriously. There's something entirely gratifying about smart people being in charge.

Oh, and the other thing I'll say is this -- that looking at his numbers right now, I'm kinda surprised at how good Crawford is. I think for a while the prevailing notion was that he was always a year away from a breakout. I became accustomed to thinking of him just as a really great fantasy player. (Which, he still is one. He finished 17th overall last year, per Baseball Monster.) But that's probably also before defensive metrics became more sophisticated. A win-and-a-half afield is significant, and that's what Crawford averages per 150 games.

E.H.: Although we've all grown tired of the story by this point, how do you think Milton Bradley would fit on this Rays team?

C.C.: Well, considering that the Rays are now in a position where they're non-tendering pretty talented players like Gabe Gross, I think it'd require something special to make the Bradley deal work. And the thing is, extracurriculars aside, Bradley just hasn't been that healthy. Last year represented only the third time ever that Bradley had reached even 124 GP. His next highest total after those three seasons is 101 GP. That's in 10 major league seasons. Sure, it's true: Guys can still provide value in limited PT. J.D. Drew, for example, has done just that for Boston -- at the same position. But Drew is an iron man relative to Bradley. And a better hitter. And fielder. Bradley would have to come cheap. Below $5MM/year, for sure. And he'd have to be fine with his role -- which, what would that be? DH, probably, if it's Burrell going Chicagoward. Maybe right field instead of the Joyce/Kapler platoon? Either way, it seems like a lot of hassle for what might constitute only a marginal improvement.

E.H.: The Rays recently traded for Kelly Shoppach and re-signed Dioner Navarro, which begs the question...What exactly are they going to do with Navarro?

C.C.: I assume they deploy him against tough right-handers. For his career, Navarro is .273/.336/.434 against righties, versus only .245/.302/.339 against lefties. Shoppach is .295/.386/.614 versus lefties and only .227/.307/.430 against righties. (Sample size warnings -- against lefties, in particular -- apply!) Plus, each represents a pretty good insurance policy in case of injury to the other.

WOAH! WOAH! WOAH! I read Navarro's split wrong. He's actually .245/.302/.339 versus righties, huh? Blurg. That's different. Let's see, if you regress that to league average for LHB v RHP (.268/.341/.430) -- using the 1000 PA weight that R.J. invoked just last week- you get something like .255/.315/370. Do the same for Shoppach versus righties (with 2200 PA, instead) and he comes out to like... .250/.315/.415. That's better, but not <i>way</i> better, I guess, considering that Navarro is four years younger and still on the right side of his peak.

Hmmm, why did the Rays re-sign Navarro again?

E.H.: On a scale of 1/11 how surprised were you by the signing of Rafael Soriano?

C.C.: Lowish. Around 3, maybe. I mean, I certainly wasn't predicting it, but I guess my reaction to the Soriano trade was a lot like my reaction to most of Tampa's personnel decisions: I start off by assuming it's a good move, and then I try and figure out how. Actually, strike that. What I do is, I assume it's a good move, and then I let Dave Cameron figure out how. (Or R.J. Anderson, obviously.) That's probably not the most intellectually responsible way of going about it, but it leaves more time for goofing off.

E.H.: Piggybacking on that last question, what do you expect to see out of Soriano this year?

C.C.: So long as he's healthy, a whole bunch of nasty, high-leverage pitching. The four seasons in which he's thrown at least 50 IP -- 2003, '06, '07, '09 -- he's posted excellent numbers (tRA*/xFIP): 2.58/2.63, 3.89/4.00, 3.61/3.80, 3.11/2.99. And it's good for the Rays that he's reached that milestone three of the last four years. The nice thing is, if he breaks down, it's only a year-long contract.

The real question, for me, is how this affects J.P. Howell. I've been the giantest Howell apologist for some time now. It seems like he could make a fantastic starter. From 2005 to 2007, Howell made 33 appearances (all starts) and posted xFIPs of 4.41, 4.08, and 4.12, respectively. His tRA*s (that is, regressed tRA, available at StatCorner) are less friendly over that time period (5.16, 5.21, and 5.24, respectively), so maybe I should just can it. Still, if he's down with it -- and I don't know, maybe he's not -- then I think it's worth a shot.

E.H.: It appears Desmond Jennings is ready to play at the big league level, and probably would be for most teams. The Rays, however, are deeper than most teams and don't have immediate room. Where do you see Jennings fitting in with the 2010 team?

C.C.:Ideally, from an organizational standpoint, not at all, right? I mean, certainly if this were my Hardball Dynasty team, I'd use up his options, leave him down there as long as I could, and get as much of his peak as possible at the lowest possible wage. Of course, if I'm Desmond Jennings, I'm thinking that plan is stupid. I'm thinking, gimme my money, you jerks. ZiPS has him at .264/.330/.371; CHONE is slightly more optimistic (.268/.339/.392). He probably adds 1 - 1.5 wins between his baserunning and defense, too. Hmm, that's pretty good. I think probably what you do is hope that Upton hits like a true Bossman Junior this season, and then you trade the frig out of him before he gets expensive. Then give center field to Jennings.

E.H.: The Rays are most likely not bringing back Carlos Pena in 2011. I know it's ridiculously early, but if you had to decide, who is the Rays starting first basemen in 2011? Willy Aybar? Ben Zobrist? Some undervalued free agent bargain?

C.C.:I think probably neither of those first two make a lot of sense. Aybar seems nice as a bench guy who, in the event of an injury to a corner, provides something better than replacement level (like with Shoppach/Navarro at catcher). For Zobrist, even if he's offensively adequate for first base, it seems like you're squandering his defensive abilities by putting him there. FanGraphs has him at 26.4 fielding runs above average in 2009. Now, it's unlikely that Zobrist reaches the same frenzied heights in 2010 (and beyond) as he did in 2009, but there's a chance he gets somewhere in the vicinity. The highest UZRs at first base -- with the exception of Pujols's bananas 18.8 in 2007 -- are routinely around 10 runs above average. I think maybe a win just evaporates if he moves to first.

E.H.: With the recent signing of Jason Kendall it appears the Royals are still as poorly run as ever. The Rays can surely call up Dayton Moore and get a Jason Bartlett for Billy Butler trade worked out, right?

C.C.: Remember how that Quebecois radio host fooled Sarah Palin into thinking he was Nicolas Sarkozy. Well, I have a question for you: How's your Andrew Friedman impression?

E.H.: You live in Portland. That is one of the cities rumored to be in the mix if the Rays ever leave town. That gives you motive. Promise me you're not going to sabotage any potential meetings for a new stadium in the Tampa/St. Pete area?

C.C.: I think this is the sort of thing that can only be settled by means of a ritual dance battle.

E.H.: You name the time and place, sir.

Again, a big thanks to Carson for joining us today.

An Interview With Dave Cameron

Erik Hahmann — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:34:04 -0000

As part of our continuing series of interviews this winter I'd like to welcome Dave Cameron to the site. You all know probably best know Dave as a driving force behind FanGraphs, but you can also catch his work at USS Mariner, the Wall Street Journal, and recently the Huffington Post. Dave has been kind enough to share his insight with us today:

EH: The standard leadoff question: What should the Rays do with Carl Crawford?

DC: Keep him. He's a +4 win player with a skill set that both ages well and is undervalued in the market. He's the face of the franchise. If you're not going to try to re-sign Crawford, you might as well just re-name the franchise Marlins North. Come July, if the team is out of it and extension talks haven't gone well, then you put him on the
market. But there's enough talent in Tampa to win in 2010, and Crawford is a big part of that. Given your proximity to the Red Sox and Yankees in expected wins, the marginal value of the wins Crawford adds are very high - trading them to save some money may actually be a financial negative, given the reduced playoff odds.

EH: The Rays have another key player who’s a free agent after the 2010 season in Carlos Pena. He isn’t being talked about nearly as much as Crawford, nor should he, but what do you foresee happening with that situation?

DC: I don't think he's back in 2011. How long he sticks around depends on how well the team does this year. If they're not strong contenders in July, you trade him for whatever you can get. I think he's the kind of player that you'll have a hard time offering arbitration to, so draft pick compensation shouldn't be assumed.

EH: How much playing time does Sean Rodriguez receive this season? Guess at a final slash line?

DC: Depends on how the roster shakes out. If Willy Aybar's around, then Rodriguez is primarily a backup for Zobrist and Bartlett, and probably not good enough defensively to play SS regularly, so he'd be a 150-200 PA guy. If they ship out Aybar and let Rodriguez be the infield super sub, he could get 350-400 PA. In terms of a slash line, I'll go with .240/.300/.400.

EH: Unless Jason Bartlett is moved at some point this season it looks as though Reid Brignac will spend another year in lovely Durham, North Carolina. Brignac has long been one of the Rays top prospects but has seen very few Major League at bats the past few seasons. I know it’s a long way off, but where do you see him being on Opening Day, 2011?

DC: The Rays have had plenty of opportunities to deal him and declined, and my feeling is that he's being kept around as Bartlett's inevitable replacement. He'll be the Rays starting SS whenever Bartlett leaves, either via trade or free agency.

EH: Speaking of Jason Bartlett, he had one of the more surprising seasons in recent memory. How much regression should we expect to see in 2010?

DC: Maybe not as much as people think. He got the slap hitter tag for his major league performance in Minnesota, but his minor league numbers suggested that he could hit, so this wasn't totally out of the blue. I think you could project him as a roughly league average hitter without being crazy.

EH: The Rays signed Evan Longoria and James Shields to very cheap, very team friendly extensions early in the 2008 season. Those extensions were nearly unprecedented at the time, and still very few teams have followed in their footsteps. Just how good were those signings, and do you think we’ll see more signings like those around baseball in the future?

DC: It's not that teams didn't want to follow in their footsteps, but rather that agents learned from those mistakes and won't make those deals again. Those two contracts were crazy from the player's perspective, with an imbalance in the risk/reward calculation that made the deals way too team friendly. If I was a player choosing an
agent, I would rule out Longoria's representatives solely on the basis of that contract.

EH: It was a fantastic sight to see this year, but there’s a minute chance that Ben Zobrist leads the league in WAR again next season. Where do you think his true talent level lies?

DC: Special hitting coach or not, I don't see the physical strength required to maintain a .250 ISO over a long period of time, so I expect some regression in his power. The plate discipline is for real, though, so even if slugs .450 instead of .550, he's a good hitter. Defensively, he strikes me as a good second baseman rather than a great one, so I'd project his UZR for next year to be between +0 and +10. That probably makes him a +3 to +4 win player.

EH: Lately there has been a lot of talk about a salary floor and in baseball, with Red Sox Owner John Henry speaking out in favor of it and ESPN’s Keith Law in opposition. Those in favor feel as if it would greatly increase the competitive balance, while those opposed think it would hurt lower market teams far more than help them. I feel as if a team like the Rays would be hurt by the implementation of a floor; what are your thoughts on the issue?

DC: A salary floor is a terrible idea. It would reduce the incentives for filling a roster with low-salaried, home-grown talent, forcing low revenue teams to pay market rates for free agents or expensive veterans in trade. The whole point of a good economic system is to create incentives for individuals (or teams, in this example) to do what you want them to do. MLB should want teams investing in their player development, and a floor would lower the return on that investment. There are better ways to stop owners from taking the revenue sharing money and sticking it in the bank.

---

Be sure to check out Dave's work at FanGraphs, USS Mariner, the Wall Street Journal, and the Huffington Post. Also, follow him on twitter @d_a_cameron.

Why Talbot Is The New Hammel

Erik Hahmann — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:02:45 -0000

A majority of focus from the Aubrey Huff trade has been centered on Ben Zobrist for the past year and a half, and rightfully so. His hard swinging, OBP machine, super-utility man routine took baseball by storm in 2009; even going as far as getting him more than the token MVP vote (8th place!). If Zobrist comes anywhere close to duplicating his 2009 numbers in the team-controlled seasons left on his contract then that will go down as one of the bigger trade coups in recent memory. Getting lost in all of the Zobrist hoopla is the other player involved in that trade, Mitch Talbot.

When the deal took place it was Talbot, not the light hitting shortstop Zobrist, who was the more prized ‘get’. Here are Talbot's FIPs for each season in the Rays' minor league system:

2006(AA): 2.81

2007(AAA): 4.00

2008(AAA): 3.03

2009(AAA): 3.55

The numbers are pretty good, but in an organization that was/is as pitching rich as the Rays there was never room for him. He wasn’t polished enough to earn a shot with the 2007 rotation, 2008 saw the additions of Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine to fill two vacancies, while David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis filled the voids in 2009. The 2010 rotation looks to be the Rays strongest yet. In another organization with less pitching depth Talbot would surely have been given a substantial shot in the Major Leagues by now.

With Spring Training approaching faster and faster the annual rosterbation games that we all play begin to creep up. What free agents are signed? Who gets traded? Who makes it? Who doesn’t? In the case of Mitch Talbot, unfortunately the answer appears to be the latter. Talbot is out of options, and will need to make the 25 man roster to avoid being put on waivers, where he would be plucked off rather quickly. He’s not making the rotation, so we can skip that and move to the bullpen. Since it appears the Rays will go with a four man bench that leaves them with a seven man bullpen. Let’s take a look at the candidates:

Howell
Wheeler
Cormier
Balfour
Sonny
Chavez
Thayer
Talbot
LOOGY

The first four are virtual locks. Cormier is arb1 eligible, so theoretically they could non-tender him, but he’s not likely to get a big raise in arb anyway (h/t Tommy). There are some reverse split guys in that grouping, but Joe Maddon enjoys his LOOGYs, making R.J. Swindle or Brian Shouse (should he accept arbitration) prime candidates for that role. After that you have five pitchers for two spots, and with Sonnanstine, Chavez, and Thayer having options remaining it makes Talbot look that much less attractive. That’s without bringing into the equation the high likelihood of the Rays signing one or more free agent relievers, which they’re wont to do.

If you add all of that up, barring some major injury, the forecast for Talbot being in a Rays’ uniform next season looks grim at best. The team was in a similar situation last off-season with Jason Hammel, and ended up trading him to Colorado where he turned in a pretty decent season. I would imagine Talbot will have the same fate. Where Talbot and Hammel differ is their MLB experience. At the time Hammel was dealt he had served over a year at the Major League level; Talbot has about ten innings. Even though they’ll have no leverage, the front office will not let an asset walk away for nothing. They don’t have that luxury. They’ll move him for a low to mid-level prospect who will provide more organizational depth. Then Talbot will merely be an answer to a trivia question, the "other guy" in the Aubrey Huff trade, a feint memory to most Rays fans. I always liked Talbot and believe he still has a future in the league somewhere; that somewhere just doesn't appear to be here.

An Interview With Jonah Keri

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 00:42:16 -0000

In continuing our series of interviews with people in and around the game of baseball we're joined by friend of the site and sports writing vagabond extraordinaire, Jonah Keri. We talk about Crawford, Bradley, instant replay, the financial state of the game, and two young LOOGYS on the rise. Enjoy.

EH: Lets kick this off with the $64,000 question. Crawford and the Rays, what happens?

JK: Depends on how the Rays fare in 2010, I imagine. If they fall out of the race early, I can't imagine Crawford's not traded. If they're in it, oddly, that might be the time to push for a possible contract extension.

Figure the order of most to least desirable outcomes goes like this:
Rays contend all year, re-sign Crawford at a discount.
Rays fall out of contention, trade him for a package like Kazmir's or better, with a mix of 0-to-3 guys and prospects.
Rays let Crawford walk, collect compensatory draft picks - DRaysBay has done a good job of noting that picks are no sure thing (i.e. you might not sign the guy) and that they're not cheap.

I doubt they trade him this off-season.

EH: Crawford is obviously the hot button issue of the winter, but asTommy brought up last week, Carlos Pena is another name who could be moved before the end of next season. How do you see the first base situation shaking out?

JK: Every Rays fan loves Los, between his great production and his winning personality. But it's hard not to love, say, Los fetching a B+ prospect and a power RP with 0-to-3 years of service time. If they can land a deal like that, then turn around and sign, say, Russell Branyan or Nick Johnson to a short-term deal for less money, that has to considered. If I had to guess, though, I'd say the Rays keep Crawford and Pena and Bartlett for now, even though an argument could be made to trade any one of them. You can't overstate how much that Kazmir trade helped the budget.

EH: Jayson Stark recently wrote an article proposing that MLB implement a minimum salary threshold where a team would tax 20% for every dollar they were under it after the first year. What are your thoughts on this idea? Could something like that realistically work?

JK: Words cannot express how much I dislike a salary floor idea. So what, the Rays would have to sign Russ Springer to a five-year extension now to get over the minimum threshold? If MLB is so concerned about owners who pocket revenue sharing proceeds instead of reinvesting in the team (cough Jeffrey Loria), they should do a better job of vetting ownership candidates. You think Mark Cuban would run a $25 million payroll every year if he took over a team, even a small-market team? No chance.

Beyond that, the smartest revenue sharing recipients would do well to funnel those funds into areas like scouting, drafting and player development, since the most valuable assets a major league can have are star players younger than free agency age (and ideally pre-arbitration). It's no surprise that the #1 player on Dave Cameron's MLB Trade Value scale was Evan Longoria, given his combination of talent and contract status.

EH: Stark goes on to say this would be the first step in "fixing a broken system." Yes, some teams spend far more/far less than others, but baseball has been thriving over the last 15 years and has had more different champions than any other major sport in that time period. Is the system really broken?

JK: The system is not broken. You've got five other divisions especially where anything can happen and any team can make the playoffs in a given year, with a reasonable amount of smarts, luck and talent.

If you want to argue that the system is broken, or that the deck is horribly stacked against anyone, you can make that case for the Jays, Orioles and Rays. Though bad geographical luck, those three teams face the toughest challenge of any teams in the major U.S. team sports, going up against the two wealthiest teams in the sport, especially now that the Yankees and Red Sox have the right people running those franchises too. I talk about this at length in the book. The Jays, for instance, might've won one or more division titles under J.P. Ricciardi if they played in a different division. But largely because they play in the AL East (while granting that Ricciardi made some ill-fated moves too, of course), the Jays now have a new GM, and they're trying to reinvent themselves for, what, the third time in a decade?

EH: There was more news this past week about the Rays and their stadium issues. The ABC Coalition came to the conclusion that "if the current stadium isn't replaced in a timely fashion, the Tampa Bay area could lose Major League Baseball." I'd say most of us here at DRB do not have a problem with Tropicana Field. You've been to the stadium and have gotten more familiar with the situation over the past year, where do you stand on this issue?

JK: Well first of all I grew up going to games at Olympic Stadium, so I'm comfortable with a dome environment. There needs to be some acknowledgment of weather here too: The Rays could certainly benefit from a new ballpark, but if they try to build an outdoor facility, that won't end well. Who wants to sit in a stadium with 95-degree weather and 95% humidity half the season - and rain the other half?

Beyond that, the whole stadium saga has been fascinating. I went way back in time in my research, to when the City of St. Petersburg was contemplating building a stadium on spec, in hopes of landing a baseball team. On spec! Can you imagine spending $500 million in today's economy to do that? (Actually they're thinking about spending something like $800 million to do this for an L.A. football team, but no one ever accused California of being a fiscally sound state.) Anyway, there's an amazing history here in terms of everything that happened just to get the Trop built - I highly recommend reading Bob Andelman's book on the subject, "Stadium For Rent". From the looks of things, I imagine the fight won't be any less dramatic this time. And yes, if they don't get a new park -- unless they start a dynasty where they reel off three or four World Series in a row or something -- they will almost certainly need a new park to survive in the Tampa Bay area.

EH: Your friend Rob Neyer has advocated giving the RF job to Desmond Jennings and platooning Matt Joyce at DH with Pat Burrell. I doubt the Rays will go that route- the team will likely supress Jennings' arb. clock as much as possible- but it's an interesting thought. Would that be a better option than leaving Burrell at DH and platooning Joyce with Gabe Kapler in RF?

JK: Well, you allude to Plan C in your next question, which is going out and acquiring Milton Bradley (or generally going a non-Burrell route). Burrell was hurt for most of last season, and I have a hard time believing the gap between the NL and AL is THAT vast that it turned a very good hitter into Rafael Santana. I agree that keeping Jennings' service time clock in check makes sense, and I like the idea of a Joyce/Kapler platoon in right to start the season.

EH: We've heard rumors this off-season about the Rays possibly dealing for Milton Bradley. His past has been well documented, but do you think Bradley would be a good fit for the Rays, on and off the field?

JK: Yes I do. I've been a Bradley fan since way back when he was a Vermont Expo. Even back then, he'd already earned a label as a great talent who was also fiery in his demeanor. Look, the guy's a fierce competitor, probably overcompetitive. But there's also no doubt in my mind that if he was pigmentally challenged, he wouldn't get nearly the bad rap that he does. Put him in the lineup, leave him be, and he'll be fine. If the Rays can resolve the contract situation, Bradley would be a great pickup. He's an absolute on-base machine without a major platoon issue, even in an off year.

EH: You're a big proponent of baseball adopting more uses of instant replay, but that doesn't seem likely with Selig still in office. Realistically, how long do you think it will be until baseball joins the 21st century and uses the advances in technology to improve the quality of the game?

JK: The next time I correctly predict what Bud Selig will do will be the first. I will say you have to look at this the way you would any piece of collective bargaining. I would guess that if Selig pushes for replay, that means he needs to make a concession to umpires. Same way you'd think that stricter drug testing would be a slam dunk, but it requires/required owners to make it palatable for players.

I will say this, though: It's just another in a long list of short-sighted (non-)decisions by the most overrated Commissioner of any major sport who's ever presided during my lifetime. When Bud Selig makes his Hall of Fame speech, I look forward to jeering him with chants of "1994", followed by me breaking down and weeping. Then throwing monkey feces at him.

EH: If you were in charge of the Rays for one day, what changes would you make, roster or otherwise?

JK: I don't presume to have a better grip on how to run the team than the current management team does. These guys are great at what they do. They usually get the big things right -- like the Garza trade -- and the little things right -- like trading for Ben Zobrist for pennies on the dollar. And that's the thing about good decision making. Do enough little things right, and just by sheer power of probabilities, one of them could turn into a big score, like finding an MVP candidate who plays 817 positions.

The only moves I can think of right now that would make sense within the framework of the team's revenue stream, talent base and likely payroll would be:

--Make a run at Billy Wagner.

--Make a run at Ryan Doumit.

--Consider the Roy Oswalt start-of-career path for guys like Jake McGee and maybe even Jeremy Hellickson. With guys like Crawford, Pena, Bartlett and Upton about to get expensive or hit free agency, there's a real window for 2010. I'd love to see some of the team's higher-level pitching prospects come in to help the bullpen before later shifting to the starting rotation. It's a great way to gain major league experience and help the team, while still knowing they'll be starters later on (certainly in Hellickson's case). Earl Weaver used to do this all the time. And really, did anyone ever have a better grip on how to run a roster than Earl Weaver?

EH: You're a busy man, what is it that you're currently working on?

JK: I'm hunkering down on the Rays book, plus raising two future millionaire LOOGYs.

As always, a big thanks to Jonah for joining us. You can find Jonah's work at a myriad of publications ranging from The New York Times to Penthouse. Check out his website here, and if you're not already (what's wrong with ya?) follow him on Twitter @jonahkeri

The Rays and The Rule 5 Draft

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:05:45 -0000

The front office will undoubtedly be faced with many tough decisions this winter. We've discussed many of them; Crawford, the catcher situation, whether or not to trade Bartlett, etc. One decision that won't be so tough is deciding which players to put on the 40 man roster, the deadline for which is Friday.

Currently the Rays have three open spots on their 40 man roster, with another one possible since Jeff Bennett is not likely to remain with the team. There's no question that two of the roster spots will go to Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, two of the top prospects in the organization, and baseball in general. As RJ noted a couple of months ago, the third spot will probably go to Aneury Rodriguez, the young reliever the Rays received in the Jason Hammel trade. The remaining roster spot, assuming Jeff Bennett isn't still around, will likely remain open to leave room for any player the team selects in the Rule 5 draft.

The organization has done many things right over the last few seasons, but Rule 5 draft has been one they have yet to figure out, though in their defense not many teams do. Here is a list of the Rays Rule 5 draft picks since 2006:

2006: Ryan Goleski

Goleski was selected first overall by the Rays, but would not stick around long and was sent back to Cleveland. After a .249/.333/.429 season in 2008 he would be out of baseball at 26 years old. The 2006 draft was the one that saw Josh Hamilton be claimed by the Reds after being left unprotected by the Rays. Also, Joakim Soria was selected second overall. He's ended up doing pretty well for himself.

2007: Tim Lehay

Once again the Rays would have the first selection, this time taking Tim Lahey. The 6'4 inch right hander would be a quick out; The Rays sold him to the Twins for cash considerations. No other players of note were taken in 2007.

2008: Derek Rodriguez

Upon the success of the 2008 season the Rays were finally not awarded the first pick. Instead they selected 19th and chose reliever Derek Rodriguez from the White Sox. Rodriguez would struggle in the spring and would be sold back to the White Sox for $25k. In this draft the Rays would unexpectedly lose reliever Eduardo Morlan, who they had acquired along with Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett in the Delmon Young trade, to the Brewers. However, Morlan would not make the Brewers roster and was sold back to the Rays for $25k, offsetting the cost of the Rodriguez deal.

As you can see, the Rule 5 draft has not been a very fruitful endeavor for the Rays in recent seasons, but that's ok. Getting lucky enough to draft a Johan Santana or Joakim Soria is fine and dandy , but protecting immense talents like Jennings and Hellickson far out weighs any player the Rays may select.

An Interview with Rob Neyer

Erik Hahmann — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 04:36:03 -0000

Throughout the offseson we'll be bringing you interviews with some of today's best and brightest baseball writers. On this Friday we're lucky enough to be joined once again by Espn.com writer, author, and long suffering Royals fan, Rob Neyer. You know Rob from his SweetSpot blog on espn and the numerous books he's written on baseball and it's fascinating history He was gracious enough to take time out of his busy schedule to talk a little Rays basebal with us:

DRB: A simple question with a not so simple answer: What should the Rays do with Carl Crawford, trade him and take the prospects, let him walk and take the draft picks, or re-sign him?

Rob Neyer: He's obviously a valuable player, if less than a superstar. It's clear (at least to me) that the Rays have to trade him, so then the question becomes when. It's really up to Andrew Friedman to figure out if he'll get the greatest return this winter, or next summer. Of course, a complicating factor is that if you wait until next summer, you might be in contention (of sorts) and if you're contending it's almost impossible to trade a player like Crawford.

DRB: The Rays esentially used J.P. Howell as their closer last season even though the current regime hasn't followed the traditional "closer" philosophy. What do you think his role should be next season? The full time closer? Or would it be beneficial to let him roam free in the bullpen and use a closer by committee?

RN: I think Joe Maddon should be heartily encouraged to engage his mind and be even more creative than he's been. Maddon has done some interesting things with his relievers, but I get the sense that he's having trouble resisting the pull back to the dull middle.

DRB: In 2009 Jason Bartlett enjoyed one of the more surprising seasons in recent memory and has turned into a huge fan favorite in the area. Those who expect another season like that are wildly unrealistic. With young players like Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, should the Rays move him while his value is at its absolute peak?

RN: That would take some real guts, huh? What makes the decision even more difficult is just how out of character Bartlett's season was. Just two years ago, he was your prototypical good-field/no-hit shortstop, no different from a dozen other guys kicking around the majors (some of them without every-day jobs). Now, he suddenly explodes with brilliant hitting stats ... and at the same time, his defensive numbers go in the tank? What do you do with a guy like that? The "problem" with trading Bartlett is that if the Rays start shopping him around, the other clubs might wonder what the Rays know about Bartlett that they don't. So I suspect that if they're even entertaining the notion, they should let the other clubs come to them. You know, sort of like this ... "You want Bartlett? Gosh, we couldn't possibly let him go ... unless you really, really want him, in which case we might be able to work something out." Anyway, you get the idea. Short answer: Yes, if the Rays can get a couple of good players for Bartlett, they should probably do it.

DRB: Many fans and media alike felt the trade of Scott Kazmir was the Rays version of waving a white flag and the cause of the September swoon. What did you think of the timing of the deal?

RN: I think the Rays made that deal when they did because 1) it was by then apparent that the Rays weren't going to catch the Red Sox, and 2) the Angels made them an offer they couldn't refuse. I know it's hard for the fans to see a longtime Ray like Kazmir get away, but I don't suppose they need me to remind them that Wade Davis pitched quite well after taking Kazmir's spot in the rotation. The Rays may lack an obvious 2010 Cy Young candidate, but otherwise their rotation going forward is just about as deep as anybody's.

DRB: B.J. Upton's lackluster season has had people calling for the young centerfielder's head. Upton is still young and there's no reason he cannot be the same player he was in 2007, or even 2008 for that matter. What do you think the key will be for Upton rebounding in 2010?

RN: No reason? There must be some reason. Whatever reason caused his batting stats to plummet from 2007 to 2009 might still be there, in which case I wouldn't expect much of him in 2010. But he's cheap enough and plays well enough in center field that he's still a fantastic value relative to his salary, even if he plays again like he did this year. Throw in the obvious upside -- there might still be an MVP candidate in there somewhere -- and unless somebody blows you away with a trade offer, you just keep playing him.

DRB: The production the Rays got out of the catcher position last season was less than optimal. Dioner Navarro did not have nearly the same success as he had in 2008, though he wasn't helped at all by a BABiP of .233. Should the Rays stick with Navarro behind the dish, or look for help elsewhere?

RN: "Less than optimal" is putting it kindly. When you have to trade for Gregg Zaun in August, you're probably in trouble. Navarro's struggles this season were roughly as inexplicable as Upton's. I don't know how much Navarro's elbow was hurting him, but any time a previously decent hitter is this awful, I typically wonder if he's been both unhealthy and unlucky, and this seems to have been the case with Navarro. Considering how well he played in 2008 -- granted, he was probably over his head -- I think if the doctors say he's healthy this winter you assign him 130 games and hope for the best.

DRB: Pat Burrell didn't exactly light the world on fire in his first season in the American League. Do you think it was due to him adjusting to a different, and tougher, league? Or are his struggles due to a rapidly declining skill set?

RN: Well, again, I just think he wasn't healthy enough to play well. Granted, going from the National League to the American League and from Philadelphia's ballpark to Tampa Bay's probably didn't help much, either. I thought signing Burrell last winter was a nice (relatively) low-cost move, so I suppose I'm predisposed toward giving him another chance.

DRB: Carl Crawford again finished first in the left field portion of the Fielding Bible Awards. Is this the season he finally wins a gold glove? And if so, how much effect do you think his All-Star Game catch will have on it? [Editor's Note: This question was asked before the results were out]

RN: He is obviously a center fielder playing left field, but as you know it's awfully hard for a left fielder to win a Gold Glove. Barry Bonds won eight of them, thanks largely to his bat. Otherwise, I believe that Darin Erstad is the only left fielder in the last 25 years to win one. So Crawford's swimming against an awfully strong tide.

DRB: If you were in charge of the Rays for one day, what changes would you make? Roster or otherwise.

RN: Honestly, the Rays seem to be so well-run that I feel even more presumptuous than usual. But, if you insist ... Gabe Gross simply isn't good enough to play regularly or even semi-regularly, as he did this year. Apparently Gross will essentially be replaced by Matt Joyce next season, which of course is the obvious (and best) move. And it seems that Desmond Jennings is ready to play for the big club, too. I don't have any information about Joyce's defense at hand, but perhaps Jennings as the every-day right fielder and Joyce in a DH platoon with Burrell if the Rays can't trade him? There's a great deal of talent in this organization, and if the management can get nearly all of it on the field, I don't see why this team can't get back into serious contention for the playoffs.

DRB: What's upcoming/new in the land of Neyer?

RN: Well, two things, one of which I can talk about and one of which I cannot ... This off-season we're expanding the SweetSpot Blog Network, and by next April we hope to have blogs in place for all 30 teams. I see that you are already spoken for, but fortunately there are some other solid Rays blogs out there. And the other thing ... Well, I'm crazy-excited about it, because nothing makes me happier than being associated with good work, and any day now my name will be attached to some of the best baseball analysis that's ever been done. But I'm afraid I can't say anything more until the press release is ready, which should be any minute now ...

On behalf of everyone at DRaysBay I'd like to thank Rob for taking the time to join us today. I know we're all excited to find out more about this secret project of his. Be sure to check out his blog on espn.com and this holiday season but sure to pick up one of his books for that special someone in your life. They make a great stocking stuffer, or so I hear. You can also follow him on twitter @robneyer.

Gone But Not Forgotten: Mike Kelly

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 02:43:07 -0000

While searching for a topic for this week's piece I began, for one reason or another, to think about my favorite (Devil) Ray players of years past. The usual suspects came up; Crawford, Shields, Kazmir, McGriff, etc. A name that appears on my list, and I'm sure no one elses, is Mike Kelly. Hell, I'm sure some(most) Rays fans have no idea who Mike Kelly is.

Michael Raymond Kelly was the Devil Rays starting left fielder in the first game in franchise history.

Kelly was an outstanding collegiate hitter. In fact, while playing for Arizona State in 1991 he was outstanding enough to win the 1991 Golden Spikes Award, given to the top player in the country. The 1991 draft saw Kelly selected second overall by the Atlanta Braves, one spot behind punchy Yankee prospect Brien Taylor. Even after a couple of disappointing minor league seasons Kelly was somehow promoted to the majors in the 1994 season. Kelly would play in 30 games and post an OPS of .806 despite a .300 OBP before the strike shut down the season. In 1995 Kelly would appear in 97 games but starting just 26 of them. His good OPS-fortune from the season before would not transfer over. In his 153 plate appearances Kelly would hit .190 and produce a .572 OPS. Apparently the Braves had seen enough of the outfielder as they would trade him to the Reds in exchange for Chad Fox prior to the 1996 season.

Kelly's stay in the Queen City wouldn't work out any better. He would play in only 19 games for the Reds in 1996 and produce an OPS of .660, though higher than his 1995 total, was still embarrassing. For some reason the in 1997 the Reds felt the need to give Kelly more than double the amount of plate appearances he had received the year before(60 to 151). Kelly took full advantage, turning the 151PA's into an .881 OPS due largely to his absurd .543 slugging percentage. The Reds took full advantage of that fluky season and traded Kelly to the expansion Tampa Bay Devil Rays in exchange for the man who had been taken two spots behind him in the 1991 draft, Dimitri Young. The Devil Rays would give Kelly something he had always wanted, a starting job. Although he would end up splitting most of the at bats with the immortal Rich Butler, Mike Kelly would play more than he ever had before and the 12 year old version of myself would be there in the left field seats every game, watching him, cultivating my love of the game. He'd finish up the season with a slash line of .240/.295/.401 and be released after spring training the following year. Kelly signed with the Rockies in 1999, but would only get two at bats all season. Those would be the final two at bats he'd see in a major league uniform.

After being out of baseball from 2000-2002 Kelly signed a minor league contract with the Royals prior to the 2003 season. He arguably had his best season as a professional baseball player that season, hitting .296/.382/495 in full time duty with the Royals AAA team. Released following the season Kelly gave it one last shot with the Yankees at the age of 34. He hit resonably well (.784 OPS) but was never going to get the call from New York and hung up his cleates for good at the end of the season.

I Google'd my damndest trying to find out what Mike Kelly is doing with his life these days but my efforts came up empty. His Wikipedia entry may be the least populated page ever. No matter what he is doing now---selling insurance? Used cars? Both?---I hope he has fond memories of that god-awful inaugural Devil Rays team. I know I do. Thanks Mike.

via www.autograph-sports.com

Possible Backstop Solutions: Chris Snyder

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 03:13:58 -0000

Over the past several months we've talked an awful lot about the Rays catcher position; Will Navarro be back? Zaun? There really haven't been many alternatives discussed. One candidate, at least in my mind, is Chris Snyder*.

*You can add this to the long offseason wishlist of players who we'd like to see the Rays go after.;

Snyder was taken in the second round of the 2002 draft by the Diamondbacks. He would advance fairly quickly through the Arizona system, piling up a little over 1,100 minor league at bats before being called up to the big club from AA El Paso in 2004. The call up was well deserved as Snyder hit .301/.389/520 in 401 at bats. He began the 2005 season as the Diamondbacks' starting catcher but struggled mightily while posting a .598 OPS in 115 games. Those terrible numbers would lead Arizona to trade for then All-Star catcher Johnny Estrada, pushing Snyder to the bench, to begin the 2006 season. In limited duty Snyder would post a .773 OPS, nearly 200 points higher than the year before. With his bat seemingly back on track Snyder regained the starting position on the 2007 team as Estrada was shipped to Milwaukee. The next two seasons would see Snyder post OPS's of .775 and .780, both numbers more than respectable for a catcher.

After a career season in 2008 in the Diamondbacks looked to avoid arbitration and inked the 27 year old catcher to a 3 year, $14.25 million deal. The 2009 season would not nearly be as good. Plauged by lower back problems for most of the season, Snyder was limited to just 165 at bats in 65 games. He would see his OBP, SLG, and LD% all fall short of career norms. One reason for this drop in production, the injury notwithstanding, could be a decreased BABiP. Though never one to have even a league average BABiP, it was just .280 and .290 in '07/'08, Snyder would get particularly unlucky in 2009 as it fell to a Navarro-like .241. That number is almost assured of rising in 2010. If Snyder is healthy again I see no reason why he couldn't put up numbers close to his '07/'08 seasons. Seeing as how well Miguel Montero has played in Snyder's place I highly doubt the Diamondbacks want to pay Snyder $4.75 million this season to ride the bench.

I don't know what kind of wizardry it would take by Andrew Friedman and company to get Snyder on this team, but I'm supportive of any deal that brings Snyder to St. Petersburg.

Blogger Nine Innings

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 02:06:23 -0000

Blogger Nine Innings

My mini-interview with Jesse Spector of the NY Daily News. Follow him on twitter as @jessespector .

The Last Man Sitting

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 00:59:38 -0000

One of the more interesting story lines of this offseason, to me at anyway, will be the competition for the last remaining bench spot*.

*This is barring any major trades or signings before opening day

The Rays came into 2009 with a fairly strong bench consisting of Ben Zobrist, Gabe Kapler/Gross, Willy Aybar, and Shawn Riggans. Although he was already getting semi-regular at bats, Ben Zobrist was thrust into the starting lineup when Aki Iwamura went down with a knee injury in late May. That injury forced the Rays to call up players like Reid Brignac and Joe Dillon to warm the now vacant bench spot. Shawn Riggans suffered his usual injury set back which allowed Michel Hernandez a roster spot until the Zaunbie Nation came to Tampa Bay. The bench was obviously stretched out more than the Rays would have liked last season but it did an admirable job. The options for 2010 will offer a slightly different cast of characters.

Fernando Perez:

-Perez has long been one of my favorite Ray players, but that’s been more for his talents off the field than on it. A useful reserve outfielder for most teams, Perez may be forced out of a roster spot with the Rays thanks to a likely Matt Joyce/Ben Zobrist platoon in right field. Perez would be better served playing every day in Triple A and working on the next great American novel instead of wasting away at the end of the Rays bench.

Reid Brignac:

-The probable shortstop of the future, Brignac does have an option left and would no doubt be better off playing full time at Durham than riding the pine in St. Pete. Unless the Rays trade Jason Bartlett I don't see Brignac beginning the year on the Rays bench.

Gabe Kapler:

-Kapler is an interesting candidate. He doesn't yet have a contract for 2010, but the Rays would be in need of a right handed outfield bat coming off the bench. Kapler earned $1m last season and did job very well, putting up an OPS of .931 against left handed pitching. If Kapler is willing to accept another contract of $1m, or maybe a little less, I think the Rays have to seriously consider bringing him back.

Willy Aybar:

Aybar will undoubtably be a member of the Rays' bench in 2010 as the primary backup at 3B/1B. Even though Aybar rated uncharacteristically poor at every defensive position he played in 2009 he isn't a liability with the glove and his bat more than holds its own. The addition of Sean Rodriguez will drastically cut into the amount of games Aybar sees at second base next season. His salary of $1.35m is very reasonable for the production he provides.

Sean Rodriguez:

The main piece in the Scott Kazmir trade, Rodriguez will likely be the platoon partner of Ben Zobrist at second base and is able to backup Jason Bartlett at shortstop. He'll strike out enough to get the local fans to boo him, but his versatility and power bat should be enough to assure himself of a bench spot in 2010.

Matt Joyce:

I see Matt Joyce being a part of what I'm calling the Ben Zobrist Platoon menage a trois. Joyce starts in right field against right handed pitchers while Zobrist starts at 2B. Against southpaws Joyce would sit in favor of the switch hitting Zobrist, while Rodriguez would play second base. Joyce spent most of 2009 in AAA and played well enough to earn a promotion, not to mention the fact that Gabe Gross and Gabe Kapler are not likely to return.

Catcher:

The plan for a starting catcher is still up in the air, so I'm even going to begin to speculate on who the backup will be, but obviously there will be one on the roster.

I'm not sure which direction the team will go, but I'm strongly in favor of the re-signing of Gabe Kapler. They could go with a four or five man bench next season depending on how they decide to structure the bullpen. If they choose a four man bench I think Rodriguez, Aybar, Kapler, and Catcher would be the best fit to begin the season. If they go five then I would lean toward Fernando Perez to fill the last spot, if only for his pinch running abilities. No matter who they choose or how they structure it, the Rays will once again have a cost effective and productive bench in 2010.