
Erik O
Nov 12, 2009 May 31, 2012 36 9028
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Basketball Prospectus - Awards
Fun article, and probably the first time I've heard anyone say that Blake is underrated.
News Flash: Tanking isn't Actually a Problem
Neat article (from a Wins-produced-guy) about why tanking isn't a problem. Within the article you'll find tidbits from another article he wrote about why tanking just doesn't really work, which kind of makes sense considering how consistent the makeup of the top teams has always been---big markets seem to be the only factor, with a few exceptions by teams that are just plain savvy (San Antonio).
The remaining NBA free agents
In light of Travis Leslie getting sent to the D-League, there's always the possibility the team hires a guy for the rest of the season, as a playoff-rental. I thought this might be a little interesting to look at, if only to speculate.
MEGASTAT
MEGASTAT is here.
MEGASTAT is an amalgamated statistic that I threw together, which basically takes 3 of the foremost advanced stats and gives each of them an equal weight, in an attempt to remove some of the biases between the stats.
I gathered data from two websites, www.basketball-reference.com and www.thenbageek.com, and I included every player (for the last 3 seasons) who played more than 100 minutes over that period. For each of these players, I included their Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Win Shares per 48 minutes (WS/48), and Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48). I also included the True Shooting % and Minutes Played for fun, though they were not included in the creation of MEGASTAT, except to the extent that they are already included in the calculations of PER, WS/48, and WP48. Last, I weighted each year's MEGASTAT calculation by the percentage of that player's minutes over the 3 years.
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Oden waived
This could be interesting, assuming Oden plays again.
Gary The Numbers Guy Explains The Success Of Jeremy Lin, Tim Tebow, LeBron James And More
For those interested in using numbers to analyze basketball, but are also interested in all things magic, this article is for you!
For the rest of us, it's worth a good laugh. And I like how sometimes he splits up the birthdate's digits, or sometimes he keeps them together. Probably because it's the year of the dragon.
According to my own special magic, Blake Griffin appears to be special. Because 10 is a very magical number, and he was born on 3/16/1989:
3 + 1 + 6 + 1 + 9 + 8 + 9 = 37 --> 3 + 7 = 10
3 + 16 + 1 + 9 + 8 + 9 = 46 --> 4 + 6 = 10
3 + 1 + 6 + 19 + 89 = 118 --> 1 + 1 + 8 = 10
3 + 16 + 19 + 89 = 127 --> 1 + 2 + 7 = 10
3 + 16 + 1 + 98 + 9 = 127 --> 1 + 2 + 7 = 10
3 + 1 + 6 + 1 + 98 + 9 = 118 --> 1 + 2 + 7 = 10
This is so stupid.
3 months ago
Erik O
1 comment
1 recs
James doesn't have the need to win like CP3?
This is just a typical game recap, so there's nothing new to see here, but one quote caught my eye:
"We defended and gave ourselves a chance to win, and that’s all you can ask for," James said. "So we can be satisfied. I mean, you don’t like to lose, but we’re not going to hang our heads about this one."
As we all know from watching post-game interviews, Chris Paul has constantly expressed how he cares only about the W, and not about anything else. Whether he has a good or a bad game, whether it's a nail-biter or a blowout, or whether it's against the Heat or the Wizards, Chris Paul doesn't really seem to vary his reactions: he's pissed when we lose (no matter how close it was), and he's pleased (not overly celebratory) when we win.
I don't know if this really means anything with regards to how LeBron plays (he's still playing the best basketball of his career), but I'm pretty happy our superstar doesn't ever seem content with a loss. And if it means anything, Michael Jordan never seemed content.
5 months ago
Erik O
31 comments
1 recs
All Star Voting is open!
Time to get our guys voted in. Looks like DJ really doesn't have a ton of competition (Pau and TD are forwards, most notably), and if he can keep his name in the media, he'll have a fair shot at being a reserve. And of course I voted for EJ (sorry Chauncy) along with CP3 in the guard spots.
Ladies and gentlemen, get your vote on.
Chris Paul trade stained NBA’s credibility
Woj is a conspiracy theorist now?
Hornets GM: No timeline for Paul trade
Heh.. I thought this line was funny:
"There remain 'many options' for the NBA-owned Hornets to pursue in trading their four-time All-Star point guard, Demps said, adding that the team and league will be diligent in 'looking for the best one.'"
He's got to be bluffing, right?
Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated doesn't think Paul is going anywhere
"I've been told any deal involving @CP3 is unlikely as long as the NBA is the de facto owner of the Hornets. They don't want that PR mess."
Good for New York, bad for New Orleans, and bad for the Clips.
The Chart(s) of Destiny: Operating Income AND Win%
Okay, so I had to re-do this because the Sonics becoming the Thunder totally screwed up the chart for several teams (see comments below). But I also took the liberty of adding in a win% column. I took out the 11-12 season from the payroll calculation because it didn't really belong.
Without further ado, I give you... the Chart of Destiny:
With the new and improved chart, you'll notice the Spurs and Wolves are at the top and bottom of the Win% list, and as John R points out in his comment below, they aren't extremes on the Revenue list. But I think these are perfect examples of management outweighing spending power. The Spurs are a nearly perfectly managed team, while the Wolves are the exact opposite. The Spurs are making money and winning, while the Wolves are losing money and losing. But if you go to the 2nd best and 2nd worst teams, the Mavs and the Clips, it's a more typical story that I think is more telling of the overall picture. The Mavs have a ton of money, the Mavs spend a ton of money, and the Mavs win. The Clippers don't have much money, the Clippers don't spend much money, and the Clippers lose.
As I said, I think this is the overall trend, so to first show the correlation between Revenue and Payroll, I made a scatter chart by sorting by Revenue, and then charting Payroll amounts. Revenue drops as you go from left to right:
It's not hugely pronounced, but if you have more money, you usually spend more on payroll. The Magic stick out as spending a lot for a poor team.
But the real question here is, do you win more by spending a lot? Not surprisingly, when I sorted by Win% and charted Payroll, it looked awfully familiar:
Obviously, the Knicks are a mismanaged outlier, spending money at will and getting no results at all. Overall, though, it seems that spending has a positive correlation with winning. Obviously it's not the only factor, but this would indicate that there could be some competitive imbalances related to how much money a team spends.
System, not revenue-split, is the dealbreaker?
This surprises me. After all of my huffing and puffing about the owners not making real concessions on the revenue-split, word on the yahoo-street is that the problem was with the cap system?
It's hard to argue with the League's point that the rich teams succeed and the poor teams fail. Of the top 15 teams with the highest payroll, 13 of them were in the playoffs, with the Jazz and Cavs being the exceptions, and both teams that were in the playoffs last year. Now, the Hornets, Grizzlies, Nuggets, Suns, and Rockets have managed to be relatively successful despite being in the bottom 15 (especially those Grizzlies), so being successful with a low payroll is certainly not impossible. But still, trends would point to the Owners being right in this case.
I'm not sure where Derek Fisher gets off saying, "As athletes we don’t believe that competitive balance is completely decided by an economic system or how much payroll exists on one team or another." Really Fish? The guy with a ton of rings on a team that's constantly on the top of the payroll list, regularly stomping on the low-payroll teams? Riiiight.
Oh, and there's no use pointing to OKC as an example of a successful team under the cap. Sooner or later, OKC isn't going to be able to afford their current squad. That's too much talent on rookie contracts to last for a small-market team.
That being said, the Union's stance that a hard cap threatens all but the top performers on a team is completely valid. A stiffer luxury tax should be imposed, but not one to the extent of $6 for every $1 over the tax. That's just insane, and making a cap system that looks and smells like a hard cap, and then calling it a soft cap, is just... dishonest.
So my vote is this: Union, obviously there should be some leveling of the playing field, allowing poor teams to compete; and Owners, can we please try to find a way to level the playing field without completely flattening it with a sledgehammer? There's middle ground here, and no one's looking for it.
Durant vs Griffin in OKC
I'll probably never say this again, but MAN I wish I lived in Oklahoma City!
NBA's Richest Owners
Gah... I saw DTS' ugly mug on the Yahoo Sports homepage. But at least there was an article behind it, instead of something more embarrassing.
Oh, and for Tom Gores' sake, I hope that's just a really old picture from the 80's and he doesn't actually have that haircut. I'm not even going to talk about Stanley Kroenke's 'stache.
Russell Westbrook the creator?
I know this isn't Clipper-related at all, but for all the stat-heads in the Nation, this is mildly interesting.
While I appreciate the data-comparison, I can't really get behind the idea of this "creation ratio" being a necessarily positive measure. To me, for Westbrook, it's more of an indicator that he's constantly being depended on for the team to put up a shot. Does it indicate in any way that this offensive style results in good shots? I don't think so, given the ratio of Westbrook-assists-to-Westbrook-shots, and given his relatively low TS%.
Now, I can very much agree with the implications of a low creation ratio. I think it's perfectly reasonable to knock on KD for an inability to create shots for both himself and others. It's the same knock we can put on EJ. Yes, Westbrook may be far less efficient than Durant, but if he (and Harden and Maynor) are not passing the ball to KD, and if KD maintains the same creation ratio, he's not going to score as much. That's not to say that KD's creation ratio wouldn't naturally increase if he were to become a featured ball-handler in the offense under those circumstances, though. This is where I think there are holes in the creation ratio. It seems to measure who creates the offense on a particular team, not who should be creating the offense, or who has or hasn't got the ability to do so.
Also, this entire argument is based on the concept that creation is a good thing, and that assists are a large part of creation. But OKC is one of the worst passing teams in the league, and yet they've still been successful. They are 24th in assists. In fact, the finals matchup was between two polar-opposite teams in this respect, with Dallas coming in at #2 in assists and Miami at #26. So I'm not sure is there's much of a correlation between being getting a lot of assists and winning a lot of games. Of course, there does appear to be a correlation between efficiency and winning (Dallas and Miami being #3 and #4 in eFG% respectively), which is why I'd be inclined put more weight on the X-axis of Ziller's graph, rather than the Y-axis. Discuss away.
Former Draft Picks and What Happened to Them - 2006
In continuation of the series that Citizen peterghost started with the 2007 NBA Draft, I’ve been tasked with breaking down the 2006 Draft. (I apologize in advance for the monster post.)
Kings staying in Sac
Thank goodness... Sacramento is a great town that deserves a team. Now get it together and build a new arena!
MVP Voters - More than stats
Since we're constantly on the topic of qualitative vs quantitative evaluation of players, Schuhmann's article seems particularly relevant.
Hollinger on Derrick Rose for MVP
For anyone who is an ESPN Insider, this is an extremely interesting read.
For those who aren't Insiders, I'm not entirely sure about the rules on posting information from Insider-articles, but in a nutshell, Hollinger discusses the theory that Rose shouldn't be MVP because any arguments for why he's had a breakout season are more applicable to the other candidates. Carrying the team on his back? Howard, Bryant > Rose. Invaluable to the team? Howard, Dirk, James, Bryant > Rose. You get the idea.
I'm not sure if I agree that it's as black and white as a +/- when they're on or off the court, since coaches might feel comfortable playing their worst players as long as their best star is still out there (see: Kevin Durant last year, or LeBron vs Varajao last year), but there's a lot here I do agree with. Such as Hollinger's point that guards seem to get more respect in the MVP race, only because they are the natural underdogs, which is why Howard would be a huge MVP snub this year, if Rose wins it.
I think one thing Hollinger ignores, but shouldn't necessarily be part of the MVP-race-equation, is the season in light of the players' other seasons. If Kobe is having a better year than Rose, but Kobe's stats are dropped off from prior seasons, while Rose's are vastly improved, how likely is Kobe to get the vote? And that's why the MVP voters are silly.
Baron to the Cavs for Mo Williams?
Maybe it wasn't the knee keeping him on the bench...?
Spurs sign Novak to a 10-day contract
Good for Stevie.
How 'bout them apples?
As much as I hate the term, thanks to Blake, we're quickly becoming the "darlings" (blahh) of the NBA. Move over, OKC!
George Karl on the Clippers
I don't know if this has already been posted, but it was new to me. From a coach I really respect, this is really nice to see.
"Tell me their weakness," Nuggets coach George Karl said of the surging Clippers. "Tell me their weakness right now. Their big guys are playing as well as anybody in the NBA. I think Baron [Davis] has kind of got into a groove of running the team and not worrying about scoring points, and you've got [Eric] Gordon at the two-guard position playing at a high level. And their bench is pretty productive. I think they're going to be a very difficult win on their home court. It's going to take time for them to learn how to win on the road, but they're building right now. They're an exciting team, their crowd kind of likes how they play, and they play with a lot of -- whatever the word is -- they love to dunk it. And they know how to dunk it."
If that's not a landslide of non-Clipper fan support, I don't know what is...
The world loves Blake.
Better than our record shows? Well, lately we have been.
On the whole of the season, as far as total points scored vs total points allowed, we have been one of the worst teams in the league. However, we are the only team in this group that is actually on an upward trend. I have included all of the worst teams in each division (except I picked 2 from Pacific and 0 from Southwest, because they are way better than our division is). I have also included Orlando, just to show a team trending the other way lately, putting our situation in perspective a bit.
SCORED ALLOWED +/-
LAC
Preseason 776 837 -61
Oct 262 306 -44
Nov 1496 1586 -90
Dec 837 843 -6
Total (excl pre) 2595 2735 -140
MIN
Preseason 881 841 40
Oct 301 311 -10
Nov 1417 1562 -145
Dec 1047 1089 -42
Total (excl pre) 2765 2962 -197
WAS
Preseason 667 662 5
Oct 178 211 -33
Nov 1384 1465 -81
Dec 771 863 -92
Total (excl pre) 2333 2539 -206
CLE
Preseason 654 593 61
Oct 280 295 -15
Nov 1328 1404 -76
Dec 823 979 -156
Total (excl pre) 2431 2678 -247
NJN
Preseason 654 691 -37
Oct 285 299 -14
Nov 1394 1448 -54
Dec 827 900 -73
Total (excl pre) 2506 2647 -141
SAC
Preseason 661 681 -20
Oct 324 326 -2
Nov 1185 1287 -102
Dec 756 825 -69
Total (excl pre) 2265 2438 -173
ORL
Preseason 719 544 175
Oct 182 179 3
Nov 1494 1383 111
Dec 746 755 -9
Total (excl pre) 2422 2317 105
So as you can see, we really shot ourselves in the foot with our no-show against Golden State in October, and we were pretty below-average (in this sample) in November. However, so far in this first half of December, we've been by far the best team of these weaker teams, and even better than the slumping Orlando. I mean, we still suck because we lose more than we win, but we're not completely hopeless.
Make what you will of the rest of the information, keeping in mind that +/- as a statistic can be misleading since blowouts can either expand into ridiculousness (like that Golden State game) or it can get pulled into single digits, simply because Team 1's C-squad is better than Team 2's C-squad.
Sterling versus Baron: Pot versus Kettle
It's really not that Sterling was wrong in his heckling---because how can you disagree that Baron should never shoot threes?---it's just that he, of all people, really hasn't earned the right to heckle anyone.
Did they really need to ask?
...and I'm going to go ahead and assume Amare is one of those 7,264 votes for Blake.
Nick Fazekas goes #1 in the dleague draft!
Surprise, surprise...
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