Erik O

  • joined Nov 12, 2009
  • last login Jul 28, 2014
  • posts 71
  • comments 16496
User Blog

2013-14 Clippers Exit Interviews: Darren Collison


As we try to do every season here at Clips Nation, we're running a series of "exit interviews" of this year's Los Angeles Clippers. In this edition: speedy point guard, Darren Collison.

Clippers dumbfound Mavs, 129-127


In a high-scoring, but confusing game, featuring very little defense and a whole lot of hot shooters, the Clippers somehow managed to come out with the win, finishing the game on a 23-4 run.

2013-2014 Clipper Player Previews: Jared Dudley


For three weeks this preseason, we'll be publishing Player Previews for each of the 13 players with guaranteed contracts with the Clippers. Next up, the Junk Yard Dog himself, Jared Dudley.

2013-14 Clippers Player Previews: Darren Collison


For three weeks this preseason, we'll be publishing Player Previews for each of the 13 players with guaranteed contracts with the Clippers. Next up, new back-up point guard, Darren Collison.

Do Coaches Matter?


Yesterday, Citizen saxmanager posted a Fanshot linking to a Yahoo! article written by a newer writer named Justin Haskins. He's mainly a political writer, but his analysis of the Clipper situation...

An Analysis of the Dudley and Redick Trade


On Tuesday, the Clippers, Suns, and Bucks completed a blockbuster trade, sending Eric Bledsoe and Caron Butler to the Suns, a pair of second round picks to the Bucks, and both J.J. Redick and Jared...

Exit Interviews: Ronny Turiaf


As we try to do every season here at Clips Nation, we're running a series of "exit interviews" of this year's Los Angeles Clippers. An overview of all 15 Clippers who finished the 2012-2013 season...

Clippers, Rockets, and Nuggets Want to Bring Technology to the Game


Looks like the Clippers have shown interest in bringing tablets into the coaching huddle. Honestly, just the simple fact that the Clippers are doing what the Nuggets and Rockets are doing is getting me excited. Should I abandon Cardboard Corey for Tablet Turiaf? I THINK SO!

Responding to J.A. Adande on Clippers-Memphis


Before we tip off on Game 1 of the Clippers-Memphis series, I wanted to respond to a recent J.A. Adande article that ESPN published, in which he analyzed the series.

Clippers Squish Hornets, 105-91


It wasn't the most beautiful affair, especially defensively, but a win is a win. The future Pelicans are a team with a bright future, but a bright future can't win you games. It takes talent to win...

A Tribe Called Bench, Then and Now


The Clippers haven't been as good in 2013 as they were in 2012. The record shows it, and the data (team ORtg and DRtg) supports this notion. Some think it's because the Clippers' bench isn't...

Clips Thrash Bobs,106-84


Despite missing their 6th and 7th men off the bench, in Jamal Crawford and Eric "I Spell My Name Wrong" Bledsoe, the Clippers had no trouble dispatching with the troublesome Bobcats Bobs, the team...

MEGASTAT 2013 - The Halfway Point


Well, we're exactly halfway through the season (or we were, when I pulled my data), and so I decided to update my MEGASTAT formula.

Henry Abbot on Minutes Played... a Year Ago


On January 19, 2012, Henry Abbot wrote a fantastic article about how NBA champions no longer play their stars heavy minutes. I stumbled upon this article, and noticed that it is particularly...

NBA Players Don't Use PEDs


Written by Rod Benson, former D-League player: Comments section seems to think it's all BS. What do you think?

David Berri on John Hollinger

From Raffo: I really like this fanshot by Erik O and the ensuing thread, but because it's a fanshot I can't bump it to the cover. So, I'm forcing it at the top of the river. Erik O: So this is way, way after the fact, but I thought it was interesting. Back when the Grizzlies hired Hollinger, David Berri was interviewed by the Grizzlies website, 3 Shades of Blue about what he thinks about Hollinger. In the advanced stats community, it's no secret Berri thinks PER is kind of a joke, so he was a bold (and great) choice for the interview. Berri begins by saying that Hollinger's metric is based off of all kinds of arbitrary weights he uses that he thinks make sense, which makes it flawed. I've complained about PER in the same way, that it uses certain weights that are completely subjective, but then the formula is used objectively. But then if you scroll down into the comments, Neil Paine (part of the team) calls out Berri and his Wins Produced formula for also having arbitrary weights, and makes subjective choices, which it absolutely does. For example, Berri says the value of a point is 0.033 wins, and the cost of a possession is 0.034 wins. Aren't these arbitrary weights as well? Berri goes on to ding PER for not having any correlation with wins, point out that it isn't good for guessing team records--of course Hollinger has admitted as much before, but I guess Berri didn't see that. In the comments section again, Neil Paine explains why Wins Produced (and Win Shares too, interstingly made by Justin Kubatko of, which tells us Neil Paine is at least being unbiased) are so highly correlateed with wins, and why it doesn't mean they are better metrics necessarily. In a nutshell, Neil says what Steve has said tons of times, that these metrics are so highly correlated with actual wins because they have a strong basis in offensive/defensive ratings (which are derived from points scored/allowed, which is always going to be very highly correlated with wins). Steve has repeatedly said that you can get high correlation just looking at team points scored and points allowed (or even easier, Margin of Victory). Surprise, surprise, the teams with a high Margin of Victory have the best records, with the obvious exception being the Lakers this year. Wins Produced also randomly has exceptions too, which is why it's only 95% correlated. As Steve, again, has pointed out to me (and John R, Michael White, SilverClip etc. in the discussions I'm remembering back to), while there is a high correlation between the "wins" formulas and actual wins, there's very little predictability power behind those formulas. That is, you can't use them to predict how a team will do very well. Isn't that the whole point? Why correlate with wins if you can't even use it to predict wins? Neil Paine's ultimate conclusion is that you shouldn't rely on any of the advanced metrics solely, because they are imperfect for predicting what's going to happen. No one, not a single metric, had any idea that Andray Blatche would be good this year. I've always thought he was just a crappy version of Marreese Speights, but this year he's playing like a borderline all star. What's funny is that for all their arguing, in the interview Berri also acknowledges that you can't just use stats to run a team, even if it’s wins produced. You have to look at the coach’s system, the type of players you have and what roles they play, the chemistry between players, and lots of other non-stats factors. This is the first time I’ve ever seen Berri say this out loud, and it was kind of nice to see he’s not a total nutjob. Hollinger never really said this, which has always bugged me, but I think Berri's right that Hollinger won't run the Grizzlies' scouting just based on PER. Anyway, super nerdy, but still interesting.

Unraveling the Clippers' Defense


Recently, in a December game against the Sacramento Kings, I was able to have a short chat with Clipper Video Intern, Natalie Nakase, asking about the Clippers' improved defense. She was quick to...

FYI: Solid source says Clips discussed trading Jordan 4 Varajeo B4 it was known he needs knee...


FYI: Solid source says Clips discussed trading Jordan 4 Varajeo B4 it was known he needs knee surgery. Cavs demanded Bledsoe as well. Twitter @PeterVecsey1

from Peter Vecsey's Twitter account

Clippers unleash on Warriors, 115-89

Thus far in the season, the Warriors seemed to have figured out the Clippers. In the past two meetings, they played with much more intensity, completely obliterating the Clippers on the glass, and...

The Luxury of Depth: Resting Your Superstars


Recently, I noticed the minutes played (or lack thereof) by the Clippers' stars. It got me thinking: of the elite teams, how much are the other stars playing? And how much might this affect their...

Just how good is the Clipper bench?


In one of the other threads, I noticed a number of comments expressing concern that the Clippers were relying too much on their bench. This concern, which I've shared at times, inspired me to dig a...

Jeremy Lin Opens Up


Good article with some really great quotes from Jeremy Lin. It gives a lot of linsight into what he's going through, and it shows that racism in basketball is far from gone.

Clippers bring down Hawks, 89-76

After following up a two-game losing streak with a pair of wins against San Antonio and Portland, the Clippers were able to come away with victory against the Atlanta Hawks by playing suffocating...

A Response to John Hollinger's Team Forecasts


John Hollinger, ESPN stats guru and inventor of PER (Player Efficiency Rating), has recently posted a number of NBA team season forecasts, and this is my response to those forecasts for the Western...

2012-2013 Clipper Player Previews: Eric Bledsoe

One of the most dynamic players on the Clippers, bringing both youth and athleticism to a backcourt filled with savvy veterans, Eric Bledsoe has some high expectations after a breakout playoff...

DJ messing with CP3 during a timeout at the Utah preseason game.


DJ messing with CP3 during a timeout at the Utah preseason game.

2012-2013 Clipper Player Previews: Ronny Turiaf

When I heard we were writing Player Previews, I jumped at the chance to write about Ronny Turiaf. I think he's vastly underrated. Ronny has always been a productive player in limited minutes, which...


Lag City?

Today, I noticed that we have some new advertisements in the background. I was experiencing some scrolling and page-load sluggishness (using Google Chrome), and so I inquired with some of the...

ESPN NBA Rankings Analysis - ft. MEGASTAT


Using a combination of ESPN Rankings, minutes played, PER, Win Shares, Wins Produced, and MEGASTATs for each NBA player, I have weighted their contributions to create team rankings in sortable...

Marko Jaric returning to the NBA?


It's a shame we didn't grab Mr. Jaric when we had the chance. We definitely could have traded him to Minnesota for Kevin Love. Ugh, what a waste.

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