EtSuKe
Sep 04, 2009 May 30, 2012 33 3233
a fan of
New York Mets
New York Knicks
New York Giants
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Syracuse Orange
New York Rangers
RSSUser Blog
Lutz to DL
"Unfortunately INF Zach Lutz has found a spot on the DL once again with after-effects of his last concussion. Lutz was raking again. On the year he was hitting .295/.380/.500 with 11 home runs in 61 games. OF Mike Baxter took his roster spot." - Nick Franzago
Poor Lutzy. We'll have to wait until next year for him to take the MLB by storm.
Prospect of the Day: Josh Satin
"What do you call a guy with a career minor league line of .309/.399/.473, including .347/.410/.453 in Triple-A? According to many scouts, you would call him 'not a prospect.' You won't find his name on many prospect lists, at least pre-season ones, but New York Mets farmhand Josh Satin is ripping up Triple-A and has little left to prove in the minors."
Baseball America’s Jim Callis Ranks the Mets Top 10
1. Zack Wheeler
2. Matt Harvey
3. Brandon Nimmo
4. Jeurys Familia
5. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
6. Jennry Mejia
7. Cesar Puello
8. Michael Fulmer
9. Jordany Valdespin
10. Wilmer Flores
Callis also says that the Mets would probably fall in the 11-15 range in team system rankings. Click through for more details.
Thoughts?
Checking in on the Position Players
by EtSuKe on Jul 13, 2011 11:23 PM EDT
on Amazin' Avenue
At this juncture in the season, I thought it would be a good time to review the Mets' offensive performance. As a team the Mets have the 8th best offense in all of baseball and 3rd in the national league by wRC+ (which is environment adjusted). However I want to look more at how individual players are batting relative to expectations and the projections going forward. I'll go down the list of position players by WAR and see how they are doing. The preseason projections are ZiPS and Marcel and the rest of season (RoS) projections are ZiPS. All stats are from Fangraphs. Over/under performing is this season's stats vs. RoS.
Carlos Delgado and the missed chance to be a legend in New York
I just came across this article and found it very sad. What could've been...
The Dickey Extravaganza. Embiggen here.
over 1 year ago
EtSuKe
14 comments
13 recs
Meet Joaffquin Frariascoeur, in memory of Jeff "The Natural" Francoeur. Joaquin Arias may take Frenchy's place on our roster, but he'll never take Frenchy's place in our hearts.
over 1 year ago
EtSuKe
3 comments
3 recs
Did anyone else see this? It's the worst case scenario.
Angel Pagan spearfishing in the offseason
(Embiggen here)
For the people that have no clue what this is referring to, a few games ago KB did a "report" on Angel Pagan's spearfishing in the offseason. Angel swims in the water for 2-3 hours and it really helps his conditioning and grission.
almost 2 years ago
EtSuKe
9 comments
3 recs
How good are the Mets?
by EtSuKe on Aug 5, 2010 11:48 PM EDT
on Amazin' Avenue
I used the ZiPS RoS projections and this BtB WAR spreadsheet to find the Mets' "true" talent. This post is very similar the my post from June 22. ERA on this spreadsheet = ZiPS RoS FIP. As I did last time, I did adjust the average wOBA to .326 instead of the .330 it was set to. The pitching part seems really complicated so I didn't touch that (and the WAR levels seem very accurate. For example, 200 innings pitched and 4.00 ERA is 3.2 WAR. In 2008, Big Pelf pitched 200 innings with a 3.96 FIP and accumulated 3 WAR, and scoring is down since then.) For players without projections I did the best I could with previous seasons and MLEs.
Embiggen
Jeff Francoeur, April 2011
almost 2 years ago
EtSuKe
10 comments
8 recs
Reviewing Team Assets
According to Basketball Prospectus, the Nets and Knicks are actually the two best landing spots for free agents, not the Bulls, Heat, Clippers, or Cavs.
The State of the Mets
by EtSuKe on Jun 22, 2010 1:25 PM EDT
on Amazin' Avenue
The purpose of this post is to determine the Mets's current true talent level. Before the season, the projections for the Mets were around .500 (basically between 78 and 82 wins). Has anything changed?
11 comments
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2 recs |
Tweet
Poll: Takahashi Rest of Season FIP/ERA
by EtSuKe on Jun 19, 2010 3:26 PM EDT
on Amazin' Avenue
Because their are no projections for Tak2, I want to see what you guys think his projection should be as a starter. Overal, he has a 3.13 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 3.18 tERA (all Fangraphs), and 3.98 tRA (Statcorner). Takahashi has a 3.12 ERA, 2.78 FIP, and 3.89 tRA (all Statcorner) as a reliever. As a starter he has a 3.12/ 3.75/ 4.07 line. His LOB% is 78% as a reliever and 79.4% as a starter (71.7% is average this year). His opposing BABIP is .328 as a reliever and .287 as a starter (.303 is average this year). My projection is 4.25-4.49.
"By far the biggest outlier is the New York Mets. They have scored 86 and allowed 69 for a pythag pace of 95 wins. According to BaseRuns they should have scored 82, but allowed 88 for a BaseRuns pace of just 76 wins. That is a mammoth 19-win spread and a cautionary tale for anyone thinking about jumping on the Mets bandwagon for 2010. That's not to say it cannot be done, but they need to up their level of play dramatically."
Francoeur ZiPS RoS
Before the start of the season ZiPS projected a .322 wOBA for Frenchy. (CHONE projected a .327 wOBA.) After 6 games and 26 PAs, Frenchy has a .609 wOBA. For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects a .329 wOBA. The updated full season projection (what's happened plus RoS) is .340 wOBA. A reminder: a .329 wOBA is basically average and Frenchy plays corner outfield, a position with a -7.5 positional adjustment.
Buzz: Nelson Figueroa could be Team’s Staff Saver
Good news: buzz is that Figgy will be in the bullpen and Mejia in the minors. "According to Marty Noble of MLB.com, at least two Mets decision-makers see Nelson Figueroa as a fit for the team’s bullpen, serving as ‘staff saver.’" Cerrone: "…as such, assuming they go with seven relievers, i’m starting to think the Opening Day bullpen could look as follows: Francisco Rodriguez, Pedro Feliciano, Kiko Calero, Fernando Nieve, figueroa, Ryota Igarashi, and one of Hisanori Takahashi, Sean Green and Bobby Parnell, all three of whom can be sent to Triple-A Buffalo…"
Organizational Rankings: #15 - Mets
I was expecting much worse than 15, but having money solves a lot of problems. I have no hope for the future while the Wilpons are still in power, however. Even if Omar is fired, someone similar will probably replace him and the Wilpons will probably still have a major voice in decisions. Sam's flow chart gets a link in the article too.
The Verducci Effect
Jeremy Greenhouse examines the Verducci Effect.
Evidence That Little Touches Do Mean So Much
Maybe Jose and Johan know what they're doing.
Why Nelson Figueroa is good
He really should get a shot at making the rotation.
over 2 years ago
EtSuKe
43 comments
2 recs
Bengie Molina vs. Javier Valentin
Scroll down to the catchers. Bengie Molina is projected for -15 R/150 and -3 defense. Javier Valentin is projected for -15 R/150 and -4 defense. I also heard that Javier is asking for a 3 year, $18 million contract.
wRC+ = Follow the Money Trail
A troll writes some BS. The Book Blog has a response.
2:02am: Link removed. Please don't feed the trolls.
Yankees Near Deal With Johnson
"The deal is now near completion, says Davidoff. Pending a physical, Johnson will agree to a one-year deal with the Yankees worth about $5.5MM." Why couldn't the Mets do this?
Mets sign Chris Coste
.295 Bill James projected wOBA, .263 CHONE projected wOBA. I can't wait to hear what the contract is.
WAR for 2010 Met Options
by EtSuKe on Nov 28, 2009 1:16 AM EST
on Amazin' Avenue
I've created a WAR spreadsheet for a bunch of potential Mets in 2010, including current players, FAs, and trade options. This was my process:
Projected WAR and Contract Values for Free Agent Position Players
Beyond the Boxscore has a great resource for projected WAR for FAs. The spreadsheet has all the data. Comparing James's No Holliday Or No Lackey? No Problem projections versus these (just the FAs):
Zaun 1.5 James vs. 1.4 BTB
LaRoche 2 vs. 0.9
Kennedy 1.5 vs. 0.3
Everett .5 vs. 1.3
Hinske .5 vs. .4
Notables:
Holliday 4.6
Nick Johnson 1.7
To the Wilpons from Paul Lukas
A rant by Paul Lukas, a Mets fan, of Uniwatchblog about the Wilpons and their disfunctoinality, especially concerning the recent "retro" uniforms. He concludes "And so, Fred and Jeff, in the spirit of the holiday season, I send you the following Thanksgiving wishes: I hope you gag on your turkey, spill cranberry sauce on your suits, and get gravy stains on your ties. I hope your wine is corked, your mashed potatoes lumpy, and your pumpkin pie spoiled. I hope your staff quits at the last moment and spends the day peppering you with crank calls from "me, your old pal Bernie Madoff, don’t you remember?" Then I hope you get the runs afterward. The two of you deserve nothing less."
Mets Hire Jauss as Bench Coach
No Melvin or Wedge. Maybe the Mets didn't want to threaten Jerry too much.
AAOP: The Best Plan Ever
by EtSuKe on Nov 15, 2009 5:04 PM EST
on Amazin' Avenue
I don't have much time to elaborate because I have a lot of work, but this is my plan:
C
Trade Luis Castillo (6.5 mil) for Chris Snyder (4.5 mil). This gets rid of Castillo, frees up second base, and gets us a decent catcher. Santos can back-up, with Thole ready in the minors.
via www.rotorob.com
Chris Snyder in one his final happy moments before the fracturing of one of his testicles in 2008.
1B
I don't think Murphy is too bad of an option, but in my plan I had enough money to sign Nick Johnson to a 1 year, $6 mil contract. If Nick gets hurt, we still have a Murphy/Evans/Carter platoon available. Murphy can be a super-sub, playing 1B, 3B, LF, and maybe RF and 2B.
2B
With Castillo gone, the Mets have a few players to chose from. There is Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson, and my choice, Placido Polanco. Placido has a decent bat and a great glove. I would sign him for a 2 year, $10 mil contract.
3B
David Wright
SS
Jose Reyes
LF
LF is a major hole for the Mets, and Matt Holliday is the perfect solution. Jason Bay is a horrible defender, Carl Crawford will cost prospects, and Mike Cameron is not as good as Holliday, and getting older (but not declining yet). I would sign Holliday for a 5 year/$100 mil contract.
"I collapse in the big moments and have a very smooth head"
CF
Carlos Beltran
RF
Step 1- Non-tender Jeff Francoeur.
Step 2- Trade Eddie Kunz for Matt Murton. Murton was designated for assignment this year, so he wouldn't cost much, and he would be a good platoon mate for Angel Pagan.
Bench
Sign Craig Counsell for a 1/1 contract. He is decent, and can play 2B, 3B, and SS pretty well. Sign Endy Chavez for a 1/1 contract as an extra outfielder.
Other
Tatis is gone, unless he is willing to sign for less than he did last year ($1.5 mil). Reed and Sullivan can stay on minor league deals for very little money if they want. Goodbye, Alex Cora and Carlos Delgado.
SP
Sign Rich Harden for a 1/7 contract and Brad Penny for a 1/3 contract. Rich Harden is a great player when healthy, and Penny is a projected 4.00 ERA/FIP for cheap. Maine, Perez, and Niese can fight for the 5th spot. If Maine or Perez lose, they can move to the pen, and if Niese loses he can go to AAA and be ready in case of injury.
RP
Sign Kiko Calero for a 2 year, $4 mil contract, and Takashi Saito for a 1/1.5 mil contract. No more JJ Putz. Nieve, Stokes, and Figueroa are ready in the minors. There is no reason to spend extra money on a closer, such as Valverde, Gonzalez, or Soriano.
via media.scout.com
"I add racial diversity to the Mets"
The Lineup
Wright (3B)
Holliday (LF)
Johnson (1B)
Beltran (CF)
Reyes (SS)
Snyder (C)
Polanco (2B)
Pagan (RF)
(That probably is not optimized exactly right, but the best 3 hitters should be 1, 2, 4. I have to read the lineup section of The Book again.)
The Bench
Counsell (2B/3B/SS)
Murphy (1B/3B/LF/RF?/2B?)
Murton (OF)
Chavez (OF)
Santos (C)
The Rotation
Santana
Harden
Penny
Pelfrey
Maine/Perez/Niese
The Pen
K-Rod
Calero
Saito
Feliciano
Parnell
Green
Maine/Perez/Misch
The Payroll
Player Salary (Millions)
Matt Holliday 20
Carlos Beltran 18.5
Oliver Perez 12
Franky Rodriguez 11.5
David Wright 10
Jose Reyes 9
Rich Harden 7
Nick Johnson 6
Placido Polanco 5
Chris Snyder 4.75
Brad Penny 3
John Maine 2.5
Kiko Calero 2
Pedro Feliciano 1.6
Takashi Saito 1.5
Angel Pagan 1
Craig Counsell 1
Endy Chavez 1
Mike Pelfrey 0.5
Matt Murton 0.5
Sean Green 0.5
Daniel Murphy 0.4
Omir Santos 0.4
Bobby Parnell 0.4
Pat Misch 0.4
Total 141.45
Edit:
With my $8.5 million surplus I have decided to sign Ben Sheets to a 1 year, $7 million contract. This moves Maine/Perez/Niese to the bullpen, and makes the rotation Santana, Harden, Sheets, Penny, Pelfrey. The total payroll is now $148.45 mil.
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