Jay Austin is a name which we Astro fans know (maybe) but I'm willing to guess most minor league baseball fans do not. He is a 20 year old outfielder whose age is probably his most defining characteristic to this point in his career. He just finished his third season of professional baseball with the Astros organization to mixed results. True, Austin accumulated double digit doubles (25), triples (13) and home runs (10) in his 532 AB for Lancaster to go with his 91 singles. His OPS has risen for the third consecutive season too- all the way up to .727 in the offensive environs of the California League. On the negative side, he strikes out quite a bit for a guy who probably won't hit for much power, and as is the hallmark of most Astro minor league hitters, he walks infrequently.

This shouldn't really surprise anyone who has kept up with the drafting strategies of Ed Wade and Bobby Heck though. These two value athleticism as much as any front office around, and often this trait takes precedence over patience/plate discipline. With Austin, we have seen him handle the Cal League with some success while being under 19 for much of the season. This is not the norm, and it should leave us optimistic that given the opportunity to have a repeat season at a level he will be able to build on the prior season's accomplishments. Assumedly this will happen for Jay in 2011, as it would make sense to allow him another crack at high A ball to hone every facet of his game. He will still be on the young side of things as far as A+ players are concerned leaving the projectors plenty of room to create a future for this kid.

So while his future is to be determined, I would like to think that what he has already done should matter in the minds of those who rank minor league players. Yes, these rankings are subjective to some extent and the misses are more plentiful than the hits. What they are able to do is generate discussion and put player's seasons into perspective. An interesting ranking I came across on Friday was this one, ranking the top 2000 minor league performances of the 2010 season. The key to the rankings is this, as the creator says:

Before you tear into me too much, this is a flawed list if you are looking for the best prospects in baseball as Bryce Harper among others aren't on it. Some of these guys have graduated as well, but I have yet to update that. This is a statistical evaluation of players how they performed compared to their league. This is based on a ton of research to find out which skills a player needs to have to be a future MLB PLAYER not a superstar. I have advanced my formula this year to a much more accurate level in my opinion.

This list does not take into account ANY factors other than age and statistics. Nothing based on draft status, bonus, tools, ability, potential...nothing. I essentially copy the players stat line from Baseball Reference and paste it into the formulas to come up with one overall value.

Bearing this in mind, look where Jay Austin winds up- #12 overall. Impressive. Again, this doesn't mean he's the twelfth best prospect in the minors. What it does mean is that Astros fans' excitement surrounding the young outfielder is far from misplaced. If this ranking is any indication, Austin has a good a chance as any minor leaguer from 2010 of becoming an Astro in the near future. Exciting, indeed. I love outside the box thinking like the person who created this list exhibited. I would be intrigued to see the exact equation he used, and how he plans on tinkering with it. What we can all take away from this is that Jay Austin outperformed his peers by leaps and bounds in the Cal League, to say the very least. 

Our guy was also kind enough to break things down by League. Some other Astros of note and their ranking in their particular league:

Again, just as Jay Austin's impressive ranking shouldn't lead us to believe he's going to be the next star outfielder for the Astros, we shouldn't close faith in Dallas Keuchel or Jio Mier because they didn't exactly dominate in their league this past season. This list leaves plenty of room for debate, which will hopefully make for some good weekend commenting.

I'm not really a political person. Stephen, who went to college with me, can attest to this fact. I keep up with things as best I can, but for the most part I shy away from engaging in real discussion about the subject. It just doesn't interest me much, and I find people can't really talk about the state of things rationally right now. Whereas in the past, we suffered from a lack of information on the issues, the candidates and the opinions of others, today we are oversaturated by information. What really matters is often paved over by unimportant and irrelevant stories brought up to drive readership and viewership. As Jon Stewart noted this past weekend at his Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear, our populace is inundated with information like never before. This should be a good thing. We should be more informed than ever before. This is probably true for some, but when unnecessary information is amplified ad nauseum  we lose traction with the true state of affairs.

Drawing things back to baseball in general, I believe this is truly the golden age of baseball fandom and knowledge. At the advent of the internet, we had MLB.com, the team specific websites under the umbrella of MLB and ESPN. That is about it. Fairly mainstream writing for the mainstream, traditional fan. Today, there is no end to the number of baseball related websites, blogs, and message boards to entertain and educate yourself. Someone could earn their doctorate in sabermetrics just reading Fangraphs, BeyondtheBoxscore and Baseballthinkfactory. For the most part, these places do a tremendous job of illuminating the subjects that are relevant and pushing other issues to the periphery. While the national media loves banging the steroid drum, the internet writers leave the hearsay, guessing games and speculation to the mainstream. Those writers have access we do not, and their audience apparently craves that sort of stuff. It doesn't interest me much, and if your comments are any indication, you all don't dwell on this subject much either. Just goes to show that with the increased outlets for baseball conversation, different platforms lend themselves to different varieties of discussion.

For the writers at TCB, we try to write about the issues surrounding the Astros that are both relevant to the team and interesting to the readers of this site. Sometimes we hit, and your comments flow like a mighty river of Astro enthusiasm. Other times, we seemingly fail, and the comments section remains barren as Minute Maid Park in October. We try though. We do. We tinker, and read other blogs and see what works and what doesn't. Everything is done to increase your and our enjoyment of following this scrappy bunch of ballplayers. I have to wonder though, does all this information, all the statistics, opinions, access and everything in between leave us with a better or worse understanding of how this team functions? Combined with the Chronicle, Alyson Footer, Brian McTaggart and the other blogs, do you all feel like you're getting a good indication of what this team's plan is for the future, or do you think we all could be doing something different? As LeBron James says in his latest commercial, "What should I do"? Should writers that cover this team continue to write and react the way we do, or is there another way yet to be seen?

What really interests me is how your opinions may change over the next decade. If current trends hold, newspapers will lose more and more influence. For anyone who just nodded in glee, I have to say that as a blogger, I do not necessarily think this is a good thing. As much as we complain about newspaper writers and their often times myopic view of the game, they have the journalistic chops to get stories and write well enough to educate us on things we ordinarily would have no idea about. As the internet gains in influence, the checks that exist to ensure writers verify facts and check sources dissipate as more and more people gain the ability to write about whatever subject they wish. It's very democratic- extending power to a greater amount of people, but the counter argument is that the quality of the writing will not necessarily improve and in all likelihood it will regress. My hope is that the online marketplace of ideas will cause all people's views to be strengthened lest they end up being unread and never considered. In this new age of information, we the reader have to be even more vigilant in what we take in and what we comment on if we want to ensure that our increased access doesn't result in a deluge that nobody can see through clearly.

What we know:

1) The Rotation Is A Strength (Even If Ed Wade Doesn't Sign a Starting Pitcher)

The beginning of any discussion about a baseball team starts and ends with the starting rotation. It's one of those inescapable truths- like how what you're looking for is always in the last place you look and how if there are chips and salsa on a table you will eat at least five handfuls- the best teams are built from the starting rotation up.

Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ, Brett Myers and Bud Norris are the top four entering the winter months, and Felipe Paulino at the moment looks to be the fifth member of the quintet. Not an ace amongst them, but none are even close to being a dud either. Maybe Nelson Figueroa works his way in to compete for a spot, or another veteran on the cheap (Ian Snell?) get invited to spring training.

With Happ and Myers almost guaranteed to regress in 2011, Wandy, Norris and Paulino will be expected to improve on strong 2010 efforts. Wandy will be due a pay raise via arbitration so his continued success is a must if payroll efficiency is desired.

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It's getting to be that time of the year where bloggers are scrambling for things to write about that concern their teams. The Astros haven't made much news of late, save for Alyson Footer telling us what we pretty much already knew about Carl Crawford and the Astros offseason plans. As for Crawford, I really hesitate to write too much about him on TCB. For one, I consider the readers of this blog to be among the most astute baseball fans anywhere, and it is fairly evident that the Astros will not be a front runner for Carl.

The Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers and Giants could all use some new blood in left field in 2011. With the free agent market looking fairly top heavy again (Crawford, Cliff Lee, Jason Werth and...), Crawford could command a $100 million plus contract for those teams desperate enough to pay top dollar for a well rounded player like Crawford. While Crawford's signing would make sense on the level that he is a Houstonian, and played Little League with Michael Bourn, it's doubtful that the soon-to-be ex-Ray would be willing to take any sort of hometown discount. Dreaming about CC in left doesn't hurt anyone, but don't let your dreams get crushed when his new hat doesn't have a star on it.

In other news featuring actual Astros, Baseball America ranked the top 20 players from the Pacific Coast League in 2010. The list is a cool cross-section of players. At the top, Buster Posey has already proven himself to be a very good major league hitter. San Francisco also can boast Madison Bumgarner among the league's top ten prospects. Logan Morrison and Justin Smoak are already major leaguers, with Morrison faring much better so far. It's amazing to me how far Smoak has fallen. Once thought of as a top five prospect in all of baseball, his 2010 seasons between Triple-A and Texas/Seattle has left prospect mavens scratching their heads. He has tremendous plate discipline and should be at least an average power performer at first, so I would still be just as bullish on his career prospects- despite the letdown this past year.

Closing out the top 11 are Brett Wallace and Jason Castro. I can't say that I disagree with the ranking, but I'm more eager than ever to see how the other names, along with our guys, perform in 2011. I don't think any of us can say they were satisfied with either player's seasons, but the objective nature of BA's analysis leaves me feeling optimistic heading into winter.

Really, though, I am interested in seeing what y'all think of their assessment of our boys. A look at some of those names behind Castro and Wallace: Oakland's Chris Carter, Milwaukee's Mat Gamel, Texas' Mitch Moreland and Peter Bourjos of Anaheim/LA  shows that four big names did not perform as well as our duo this past summer in Triple-A. Praise has been heaped on these guys from scouts, bloggers and broadcasters. Yet we haven't heard much of anything said nationally about Castro/Wallace, probably with good reason given how they performed. Patience is what we've preached around here, and it seems like the good folks at BA have given us two really good reasons to think that's sage advice.

Aspiring major leaguers are showing their wares in the desert this fall, including many an Astro: Koby Clemens, Jay Austin, J.B. Shuck, David Carpenter, Kyle Greenwalt, Matt Nevarez, Pat Urckfitz, Jay Austin and Brandon Barnes. It's not as if we can really take away all that much from the AFL as a result of the small sample sizes that players accumulate. It's still a good showcase though for players who have aspirations to make it to The Show in the near future.

Our Astro representatives comprise an interesting mix in their own right. For Clemens, it is a chance to continue his terrific play after a powerful 2010 season for Corpus Christi. J.B. Shuck made the leap to AAA and the outfielder performed much as he had in prior seasons- he got on base and hit for no power. His future may well be as a fourth or fifth outfielder down the line, so as important as his offense, Astro brass are probably looking at his defense to help determine Shuck's career path with the Astros.

On the pitching side, David Carpenter is the 25 year old pitcher the Astros got in return for Pedro Feliz who is transitioning to life on the mound. At least one source isn't all that keen on Carpenter's chances at major league success, but again, he's a live human being and it's debatable whether or not Pedro Feliz was that last year. It very well could have been a Weekend at Bernies' situation for Feliz in 2010, judging by his play.

So will a solid fall lead to big league success the following year? Well, not necessarily. A look back to the top performers from 2009 in Arizona shows very few guys parlayed their desert hotness into a spring time break with their major league parent club. Offensively, the likes of Jose Tabata (PIT), Ike Davis (NYM), Starlin Castro (CHC), and Mitch Moreland (TEX) contributed in the majors in 2010 after pretty solid Arizona Fall League stints. Buster Posey didn't let a poor showing in 71 AB (.683 OPS) keep him from dominating NL pitchers in his rookie season.

On the pitching side of things, no pitcher threw more than 29.2 innings with Wilton Lopez leading the way for Astro farmhands with 19.1 innings. He's also the best example of an Astro player doing well in both the AFL and the majors in successive campaigns. Around the bigs, Drew Storen, Mike Leake and somebody named Stephen Strasburg put up impressive lines before making the club out of Spring Training. All three were former college pitchers, which coupled with a lot of talent helped their chances a great deal.

As it stands now, I don't get the impression that any of the Astro representatives have even an outside chance of pulling down a roster spot next season. Perhaps Clemens or Shuck at some point in the season could surprise and grab some big league time, as could Matt Nevarez. Realistically this is just an excuse to check box scores before the long, long winter of no baseball. So get excited for baseball while it's still here, but don't get too bent out of shape if our guys don't impress. Odds are we won't be seeing any of them for at least a season or two.

As painful as the Astros' offense was to watch much of the season, there were some nuggets of value in our lineup. Sure, there was no Pujols or Werth or Votto, but a few Astro hitters did have themselves some relatively successful 2010 campaigns. But how to separate the wheat from the chaff?

To start, I think the award has to go to someone who had at least 350 plate appearances. So goodbye, Humberto Quintero, Tommy Manzella and Angel Sanchez. Not that they could have been our MVP this season. But, they did get a whole lot of plate appearances for us. That should tell you something about what we have to work with here. Moving on!

That leaves us with six guys in the running: Hunter Pence, Carlos Lee, Michael Bourn, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Johnson, and Lance Berkman. Not that I'm not grateful to Lance for being the face of this franchise for half a decade, but I just can't give the award to a man who no longer plays for the Astros. Fun fact though: Lance led the Astros in total BB. Not so fun fact: The Astros were last in the majors in BB taken. So thanks, Lance, but even your plate discipline can't help you here.

So were left with our trio of starting outfielders, a second baseman who never strikes out, and the third baseman with an enviable BABIP.

Note: Pitchers have their own award to win on TCB, so I left them out of the MVP discussion.

Let's start with Carlos Lee, the anti MVP.

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There is a tried and true method to writing these types of articles. You give a short overview of the season that was, and those players that performed exceptionally well. That was the old days. These days we have advanced statistics that can sum up a season's worth of production in one number much better than anything we've ever been exposed to in the past. These numbers don't answer the question of who the MVP should be, but they do lend a great deal of objectivity to the debate.

On the other side of any MVP discussion is what "Most Valuable Player" really means. Some say  it should be the best player on the best team, or at least a playoff team. Others insist it should be given to the best player in the league, with no other considerations. Hanley Ramirez is a good example of someone who has played on a non-playoff team in the past, yet has put up tremendous statistical seasons. His second place finish last season shows that voters can appreciate great play even it comes from a player whose season stopped early in October.

This year there were many MVP-esque seasons put forth by a handful of players. Guys like Matt Holliday, Rickie Weeks, Jayson Werth, and Aubrey Huff all had humongous impact seasons in their own rights. Three performers were head and shoulders above the crowd in terms of production though: Joey Votto, Albert Pujols and Ryan Zimmerman. A pair of teammates, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, make my list because of their out of this world second half stretches. Note that this isn't exactly the most definitive of MVP lists, but I'll do my best to explain why I chose these guys.

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In case you haven't noticed, the Astros aren't going to make the playoffs this year. I know, I know. You're a little surprised at this news. But rest assured, they aren't. A respectable finish has been in the works for a few months, but there will be no October baseball for the hometown nine this year. That's not to say that the rest of MLB will just stop because the Astros aren't a top 8 club. Nope, those inconsiderate jerks have decided to keep playing for the fifth straight year even though our Stros will be golfing, or Halo-ing, or working on their tans.

So this all begs the question: which of these clubs should we back? Well I'm here to help knock out those teams aren't worthy of our temporary adoration and select those that do. The AL four (New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers) are set in stone, while the NL is still wide open with two teams (Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Res) all but assured of making the playoffs, while four others (San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies and Atlanta Braves) are in the hunt.

I'll start with the Junior Circuit:

Texas Rangers

Pros (of rooting for them):

• God Bless Texas
• Gotta love the upstart. This team has been mediocre to bad for a decade and they've turned things around with their youngsters, despite the winds of ownership turmoil swirling
• Outfielder Daniel Murphy is a Klein High School product, so there's that

Cons:

• They're a Dallas team, and well, cheering for a Dallas team makes me a little ill. However, I will say that these guys are overlooked (relatively) even in this their first playoff season since 1999.
  
• Of any team in the playoffs, I would wager that they have the best odds of getting swept. I know, I know: you can't predict the playoffs, small sample size, etc., etc. I just think that after Cliff Lee, the starting pitching isn't exactly built for success in the playoffs (not many strikeout guys).
  
• If anyone has been to a Rangers game, their PA guy has the most annoying way of announcing names of any PA person ever. No hyperbole.

Minnesota Twins

Pros:

• Der da Twinkies, dontcha know?
  
• These people have to put up with seven months of winter (or more). Their football team looks lost and their basketball team has been in disarray since last summer's Ricky Rubio fiasco. They may need this one more than any other team.
• In all honesty, they may be the best team in baseball. They're well run, have a homegrown superstar and have kept Ozzie Guillen out of the playoffs for the past couple years.
  

Cons:

• A playoff run means play by play men waxing poetic about Jim Thome and his Paul Bunyan like strength. Nobody needs to hear a month of that.
  
• I miss the baggy in right field.
• Sure, they're good, but they're not interesting. Nothing compelling about them, in my opinion. Q rating fail in the playoffs = no edge of my seat viewing = probably won't root hard for

Tampa Bay Rays

Pros:

• No longer the spawn of the Devil (Rays)
  
• Hometown boys on this club (Jeff Niemann, Carl Crawford)
  
• Are rays considered fish? I don't know, but the fact that I don't know makes me want them to remain in the playoffs because hearing their name will remind me to look that up

Cons:

• Worst
• Ballpark
• Ever

Playoff baseball means theater. Shakespeare is better in an outdoor theater in rural Britain than it would be at  the local playhouse. Same goes for baseball.

New York Yankees

Pros:

• Lance Berkman needs a ring. Berk is the 69th ranked hitter all time in terms of wOBA. So I don't think I would be that far off in stating that Lance is a top 100 hitter all time, as it stands today. We went through Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell not winning a championship, and I hope Lance gets one before it's all said and done. Even if it's with the Yankees.
• The anti Rays principle is in effect: New York in fall is tremendous baseball theater. The cool temperatures, the ghosts of Yankees past, etc. The clutchiness of Derek Jeter....ok that's a popular fallacy, but the rest is true.
• With the great pennant races in the NL, and the resurgence of Tampa, the Yanks haven't gotten too much publicity this season. What's more, this team has holes unlike last year's. The pitching staff after CC Sabathia are question marks and the offense (Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeria especially) has struggled at times. Flaws make them somewhat more human. Somewhat

So in the AL, who will you be rooting for?

That's all I can muster tonight, folks.

When I was a little kid and one of my favorite teams (Astros, Rockets, Packers) would lose a game, I wouldn't read the article the next day in the paper that detailed the defeat. I would glaze over it and move on to something that wouldn't evoke the painful memories of the day prior. So, I guess my writing a post game recap of an Astros loss shows I'm growing up! Ok, this was a meaningless game in September and I know in my heart that the team should lose a couple games like this down the stretch to even things out in terms of the law of averages.

The three runs the Astros managed to score all crossed home plate in the first inning, two of which on a Jason Michaels home run. The rest of the night was fairly uneventful until the seventh inning when starter JA Happ exited after six shutout innings of work. Mark Melancon allowed a run to bring the Nationals within two runs. A bevy of eighth inning relief pitchers: Tim Byrdak, Felipe Paulino and Matt Lindstrom, gave up runs left and right, ending Houston's modest two game winning streak.

Perhaps the most important development tonight was the exit of Hunter Pence in the first inning with a hip flexor injury. I'm not entirely sure what a hip flexor is, but I'm vaguely aware of the functions of the human hip. As such, I would imagine that Pence may be sidelined if he plans on running or exerting himself whatsoever in the near future. Two outfielders go down in one week? Boo.

On the bright side, Chris Johnson collected three hits, falling a triple short of the cycle. His ninth inning home run only added to the intrigue that will surround the off season debate on whether Johnson is playing above his head, and by how much.

The Astros' starting lineup was without Michael Bourn (who is down with an oblique injury), Jason Castro, Brett Wallace and Angel Sanchez, but that didn't stop Houston from winning the opener of a four game set against the Washington Nationals. Bourn is expected to miss a couple games with his injury, and I'm going to guess that manager Brad Mills saw the last place Nats on the weekly docket and thought to himself, "Geoff Blum needs an AB or two...let's get him in there". Blum and his fellow replacements, Humberto Quintero and Brian Bogusevic, didn't disappoint, combining to go 5/12 for two homers and 5 RBI. If you couldn't already tell that the Astros were rolling, the fact that both Blum and Quintero went yard, in the same inning no less, should have tipped you off.

Bud Norris allowed ten base runners in 6.2 innings, but only an Adam Dunn double early on went for more than one base. Cudly Budly struck out his typically high number (six), and threw 61% of his pitches for strikes. Not exactly Roy Oswalt, but this is a guy that many of have questions about as a future starting pitcher. Nights like tonight lend credence to the thought that a 25 year old Bud Norris has not yet begun to pitch as well as he possibly can. His 9-8 record won't wow anyone, but he has the opportunity to win double digit games in his first full season as a starting pitcher. In today's game, if nothing else that means that the Astros felt confident enough to throw him out there on a consistent basis.

Through the 150 game mark, our Astros are a remarkable 73-77. Yes, I said remarkable. PECOTA had them winning 76 games and CHONE had us at a tidy 72 victories. Having already surpassed CHONE, and with the more optimistic PECOTA prediction likely to be surpassed as well, these "meaningless" games for the Astros take on certain level of importance heading into the off season. With the AFL coming up quickly, there are all sorts of storylines to follow even if we will be missing post season baseball.

I've searched the internet for Astro/baseball factoids that only take a few moments to decipher. We start off in the realm of home runs, specifically those off the bat of rookie Brett Wallace. Though he has hit only two in his young career, our first baseman's longest (hit last week) rates as the longest of any Astro this season. For what it's worth, Lance Berkman has the longest (453') and shortest (326') home runs for the Astros in 2010. The longest home run hit by anyone was a 485 footer knocked by Texas Ranger Josh Hamilton off our former ace starter, Roy Oswalt.

As Clack noted on Saturday, the Astros, along with fourteen other clubs, watched a bullpen session held by former Texas A&M Aggie, Barret Loux. Representatives for Loux have said that they would like to have a deal finished by later this fall so that the pitcher knows where he will be pitching come February 2011. To me, it would appear that the Astros would have as good a chance at signing Loux as any team in the majors, if not a better chance than most. His roots are in the Houston area, and just as important for Loux's prospects at advancing quickly through a system, the Astros' minor league cupboard is still relatively bare. The injury concerns are legitimate, but if the Astros' medical staff gives Bobby Heck/Ed Wade the thumbs up, a Barret Loux signing could be a coup for our organization.

I found a new website on Sunday that was immediately bookmarked, Seamheads.com. These baseball maniacs write about subjects ranging from the New York Giants' season from 1889 to Derek Jeter's hit batsman that wasn't. Last week, they saw a connection that I had heard nothing about prior to coming to this site: the shared history of Astro pitcher Nelson Figueroa and Astro killer (at least last week) Jay Gibbons of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The pair had both played for an Independent League team based out of Long Island, New York (albeit at different times) before they began play for their current employers. If you read the article, you'll see last weekend's series was full of for Independent Leaguers.

Baseball America released it's First and Second Minor League All Star Teams a little while ago, and Jordan Lyles wasn't on either list. Looking at the names of the pitchers who did make the teams: Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Julio Teheran and Brandon Beachy, you can understand how Lyles wasn't in the mix, but it's still just a little surprising that a 19/20 year old who excelled in AA and pitched decently for the Express (5.40 ERA, 22 K, 11 BB in six starts). As much as we all love this kid, the nation seems to be holding back the effusive praise that we have embraced. This is probably to be expected, seeing as how Lyles doesn't have the "stuff" that the top tier starters do, but at some point Lyles' results, and success on the field will be too much for everyone to ignore.

Speaking of prospects more highly regarded than Lyles, Toronto Blue Jay hurler Kyle Drabek made his major league debut this past week. The son of former Astro and Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, Kyle did about as well as you could expect from a 22 year old without AAA experience, going six innings, striking out five and allowing nine hits. The biggest piece of the haul Toronto got in exchange for Roy Halladay, there is quite a bit of pressure on Drabek to succeed as a Jay. He's a much heralded name for a team with a small payroll, so how he and his young brethren go, so will go Toronto.

A quick comparison of Lyles and Drabek's AA careers goes something like this:

Lyles would appear to have had the more successful stint in AA, but it's difficult to compare minor league performances based purely on statistics, so I'll leave that to those better versed in judging the lower levels of professional baseball. It does say something though, that for as highly praised as Drabek is, Jordan Lyles' own performances stand up pretty well by comparison.

In a stretch of games that have become increasingly familiar with each strong start from a pitcher and each timely hit form the offense, the Astros managed to score just enough to beat the Reds 4-3 and take the series against the club leading the NL Central. Despite being outhit 11-6, Brett Myers and a host of relief pitchers pieced together a typical second half victory for Houston.

Brett Myers cannot be praised enough for his performance this season. 31 starts, 31 times he's pitched at least six innings. While he doesn't have Lincecum or King Felix' repertoire, he isn't merely a savvy veteran either. Per usual, Myers mixed his pitches well and escaped what trouble found him. With the bullpen going on the seventh inning, Myers bore down after allowing a leadoff bunt single to UT product Drew Stubbs.

Ed Wade may have lucked into the Myers signing, but  regardless of the reason, Myers is here and is excelling. If healthy, we thought he could be a workhouse. Nobody thought he could be a 5 WAR pitcher. That's what he's become. This is especially impressive considering the Astros most likely would have had to throw in Josh Bankses and pitchers of his ilk to fill the spot in the rotation that Myers has ably stepped into. 

Offensively, Chris Johnson tried his best to answer Stephen's article from yesterday, as CJ pumped up his power numbers with a double and a homer. As mentioned earlier, our boys didn't tear the cover off the ball, but their hits counted. Hunter Pence has fallen off in the past week, again going hitless. The youngsters Brett Wallace and Jason Castro sat this one out, but as it's been for much of the past 100 games, whoever was in there for the Astros did the job and helped the team earn a win.

Matt Lindstrom's Sunday was a rough one, allowing three runs in 2/3 of an inning. Mark Melancon was called on to replace the scuffling Lindstrom and did his job by striking out Drew Stubbs looking. The ninth inning was an adventure, with Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen singling with two outs to bring up MVP favorite Joey Votto. Even with Votto at the dish, Astro fans shouldn't have been that nervous. After all, wasn't this as much of a deja vu game as any? Votto popped up meekly to Jeff Keppinger in shallow center, and that was that.

Tuesday night's game was like so many at Chicago's Wrigley Field: wind blowing out and pitchers giving up hard hit balls in droves. Brownie and JD do a great job of explaining concepts both large and small in the baseball universe, and on numerous occasions the duo discussed the effect that wind has on the Northside stadium.

The point of their discussion is a large part of why the Cubs' home park is great hitter's park. In all of baseball, Wrigley Field ranks third in park effect (or batting park factor) which at its essence shows just how much a particular ballpark contributes (or detracts) from run scoring. A park factor of more than one means that the ballpark contributes to run scoring, (as compared to a hypothetical run neutral park), and a park factor of less than one means the park suppresses run scoring more than the same run neutral park. The popular refrain that Wrigley Field is an hitter's haven is true not only in the subjective mind of announcers, but when the numbers are played out as well.

Nobody knows the truth of this statement more than the youngest Astro hitters. While so much of being a fan of this year's team is staying patient as our baby-Stros learn the ropes, trips to Chicago have meant that the training wheels come off and the guys start to mash like seasoned veterans. Highlights of this success are as follows:

Chris Johnson:

• First career home run was hit in Chicago on July 19th. He followed that game up with another power filled outing on the 20th, hitting the second bomb of his young career. Then yesterday, home run number seven on the season and number three in Chicago was deposited in the left centerfield bleachers. So that's 16 total ABs for CJ in Chi-Town and three home runs. His remaining four home runs away from the Friendly Confines took 237 AB. 

Jason Castro:

• Home Run number one for Castro wasn't hit in Chicago (it was hit at the Juice Box against the Giants on 6/24), but his first multi-run home run was hit on the road against Chicago in the same game which saw CJ knock his first. I think what we've seen over the past two weeks or so is Castro's talent and his luck starting to come together. Once the two begin to equalize to an extent, we can start to get a better idea of the kind of hitter Jason is. Keep in mind that his current .300ish OBP comes as a result of a low BABIP and .220 BA. 

Brett Wallace

• The Walrus saw his batted ball leave the park on Tuesday night, just a few pitches after Chris Johnson's fly ball was caught on the warning track. Wallace has had a tough go of things in his first major league ABs, looking off kilter much of the time. He has amassed 30 strikeouts in those 100 or so ABs, a pace that is unlikely to endure, but is troubling nonetheless. Swinging at bad pitches and failing to take advantage of his strong lower half in his swing mechanics seem to be two good places for Brett to assess things after the season. That being said, maybe the magic of Wrigley will propel Wallace to bigger and better things during the final 1/8 of the season.

One last point about park factors. Did you scroll down on the link to see where Minute Maid ranked? I'll save you the time if you hadn't: 27th of 30. MMP still helps in the HR and 3B categories, but suppresses doubles and hits in general to a great extent. This helps explain why the offensive-light Astros have played above .500 at home while struggling on the road. While the Cubs have mashed with the best of 'em in our league, their home mark is 33-40. Opponents can take advantage of the offensive environment just as much as the home club, something the Astros' young trio learned early on in their careers.

Last week there was a poll up on TCB asking how much we each pay attention to the "other" teams in Major League Baseball. It's safe to say we all follow our Astros closely, then NL Central a little less, and the rest of the bigs to an even lesser extent. That's not a bad thing necessarily, that's just the way things go sometimes with busy schedules, families, work, etc.

Even though I write here at the blog I don't always have the opportunity to write about the "other" league, the AL. The extent to which I keep up with those folks usually goes like this:

• Fantasy Baseball purposes
• Checking up on the Texas Rangers for general comparison purposes between Texas' major league cities
• Making sure the Orioles, Mariners, Royals, and Indians still have worse records than the Astros
• Marveling at how every season the AL Central comes down to a battle between the White Sox and Twins
• Looking at the A's lineup and pondering how they manage to stay around .500 in the tougher league
• Wondering how the Toronto Blue Jays haven't paid Bud Selig to move them to another division

That's about the extent to which I pay attention to the Junior Circuit. However, I did take note of a couple stories that were of particular interest to me. The first of which a Cy Young debate that will probably match what occurred last season in our league. Felix Hernandez has probably been the best pitcher in the AL this season, but his 11-10 record does not compare favorably with that of his chief rivals for the award, CC Sabathia (19-5), David Price (16-6), and Francisco Liriano (12-7). Cliff Lee (10-8) faces a similar "record" quandary that Hernandez does, but unless Lee can regain his health and catch fire in September, he won't be in the final Cy Young discussion. King Felix' line of 8.58 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, while allowing only 14 HR in 219.1 IP are all impressive to say the least. While Hernandez hasn't been the most valuable AL starter in terms of WAR, he's logged more innings than any other pitcher in the league and his WPA (win probability added) is far and away the best in the AL.

The fact that he plays on the West Coast and on a bad Seattle Mariner team shouldn't take away much of anything form his candidacy, but in the past this definitely would not have been the case. Last season's victories of Zack Grienke and Tim Lincecum should give hope to Felix though, in that their W-L records were not as impressive as the other starters up for the award, but their superior peripheral statistics won the day. We all remember last year's firestorm associated with Keith Law and his Cy ballot, but I just don't see Felix garnering anywhere near the support that Lincecum did last season to make this a point. Sabathia and Price play on the best teams in baseball and are damn good pitchers in their own right. It won't be a travesty for either of them to win, it's just that Felix has been better.

Last, I know he hasn't been an Astro for a few seasons, but my God, Luke Scott has been mashing this season. He's only played in 110 games, but his ISO mark of .275 is impressive to say the least as is the fact that just about 20% of his flyballs leave the park. That struck me as particularly high, and when I checked, sure enough he was fourth in the AL behind only power studs Josh Hamilton, Jose Bautista and Carlos Pena.

His season has been injury shortened (as most of his seem to be) and his overall value takes a hit because of his less than stellar defense in the outfield and his ABs as a DH in the Baltimore lineup. With the season the Orioles have had thus far, I can't believe the O's didn't trade him to a winner. He was one of the most potent outfield bats available at the deadline and at only 32, Scott still has more good years in the majors left. He's a late bloomer, but boy how he has bloomed.

Once upon a time, there was a professional baseball team based in southeast Texas...

This group of 25 men, who often times scored runs and struck out major league hitters, were not all that successful at their chosen profession. Sure, compared to say.....an inanimate carbon rod the Astros could play baseball pretty well, but on the whole, there was something lacking.

You know how some people just have It? That certain je ne sai qua where if you watch them even for an instant, you know that they are going places? Well, these Astros didn't have it. Their ranks were filled with men with unfortunate injuries, the worst stat line in MLB, big contracts and one whose wife outpaces him in the sports fame department with room to spare. Certainly, these were the worst of times for followers of this professional baseball club.

Who needs a major league career when you have Jennie Finch as your wife?

Everyday, it seemed, articles like this were written. And this. This too? Yup, and, wait for it....this. Hey! Look back up there at Jennie! (This too.) You saw that last link? You're good...too good. Don't think for a second (or 100) that those were the only 100 loss articles that concerned the Astros: a Google search yields 478,000 results.

True, this blog tried to be a port in the storm of hyperbole, but even our passionate, yet reasoned, intelligent, yet playful, take on the Astros was enough to counteract some of the vitriol associated with Houston Astros baseball. The mainstream was right: we were bad, and everyone knew it except for the Grocery Man in charge. (Am I the only one who thinks it's a little funny that Drayton's $28 billion dollar company's website is on the fritz?) Bleak didn't begin to describe the situation.

Gradually though, things started change for the better. Stars were traded, as Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt were sent east in exchange for prospects and Mr. Fissure and Mr. Feliz were both given their walking papers. Payroll was slashed, the team got younger, and a 100 loss season became less and less likely. The Astros started to play respectably, inching closer and closer to just being a regular ol' bad baseball team instead of a circus freak ugly baseball team. Sweeps of St. Louis and Philadelphia had Crawfishboxers brimming with unbridled joy, tempered optimism.

Still, the first benchmark of the season was reached tonight, as the Astros topped the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-5 in comeback fashion. Win #63 of the 2010 season merely ensured the avoidance of 100 losses, a specter that hung above this team's head since the 0-8 start. While 79 wins as a pre season target may have seemed an unreachable dream in May, it would now "just" take a 16-11 finish to get there.

A come from behind win like tonight's are difficult against any team, even one like Arizona whose bullpen has been pretty bad this season. It's also sorta fitting that one of the few links to the root of our current problem, Carlos Lee, won us the game and has also been playing well of late. On one hand, shedding big contracts for more sensible deals is a good way to go for a rebuilding team like ours, but then again, even the old timers can produce. Lee hit a couple big home runs against the Phillies last week, and tonight his first pitch home run in the eighth inning brought the Astros all the way back from a 5-1 deficit. So while, we all look to the future, it's important to look to the past and learn from mistakes. Carlos Lee may have been a mistake, but he's been a helpful mistake during the last couple months. These Astros have avoided one dubious milestone, and they have time to keep climbing.

Wednesday's victory over the St. Louis Cardinals clinched the Astros' second series sweep of the Red Birds this season, an anomaly of sorts in a season filled with more losses than wins. If their winning ways haven't been enough to give you a little pep in your step, the return of second baseman Jeff Keppinger and closer Matt Lindstrom from injury should be more than enough to do so. Not that the Astros struggled without the pair, but their being available to play, plus the addition of five minor leaguers because of September call ups means that other Astros won't have to perform in roles that aren't necessarily beneficial for the team or to the player himself.

Wilton Lopez is one such Astro who, while in the midst of a stellar if not spectacular rookie season, has been forced into pitching more innings with greater frequency than most would like to see from a mid innings relief pitcher. His statistics don't necessarily indicate that Wilton has been over used and abused by any stretch. Fifty-eight games pitched, and 58 innings in total after 130ish games is not ludicrously high in relation to the other relief pitchers in MLB either. Nor can we draw any meaningful conclusions from a comparison with injured hurler Alberto Arias, in my opinion, because Arias threw less innings in his first season as an Astro (first FULL season, mind you) than will Lopez.

So are concerns about Lopez' health going into the future legitimate? That much remains to be seen. My subjective brain told me that Brad Mills was running Wilton out there quite a bit in August, while the team actually had leads to preserve and during the DL stints of Jeff Fulchino and Matt Lindstrom. If you go down his log of appearances, it is tough to argue that he has been utilized a great deal more this past month than in any other. His 16 appearances are the most of any month this season and he pitched two innings three times this month, also a season high. To minimize any stress on his arm, the always efficient Lopez threw 23, 20 and 20 pitches in those appearances, in line with his 8+ K/BB ratio on the season. He attacks hitters and doesn't make himself work harder than he has to.Brad Mills called Lopez' number seven times from August 10th to August 19th, and his man delivered by not allowing a run over 7.2 innings, walking none and striking out three. Again, look to the pitches thrown column to realize the almost machine like efficiency of this guy. My personal favorite is the August 10th outing against the Fightin' Ted Turners, where he got two outs with one pitch, inducing a double play to end his daily labors. Good stuff.

Hopefully now with Fulchino and Lindstrom back, and Wesley Wright and Henry Villar added to the mix from the minor leagues, Wilton Lopez won't have to shoulder the burden he did during the month of August. Yes, it's not as if his innings assignments suddenly doubled or anything extreme like that, but his load did increase during the August days of winning with a thin 'pen. He's 27 years old so he's heading into the prime seasons of his career. While the offense struggles to push runs across home plate, pitchers like Lopez will be counted on to win games moreso than for other clubs. Injuries are a part of the game, and as we've seen with the Nationals treatment of Stephen Strasburg, even the kid gloves treatment doesn't always work. Wilton Lopez' value to the Astros can't be compared to Strasburg's value to Washington, but the injury concerns associated with pitching are a constant in today's game. Lopez' usage in August seems to be more to do with game to game situations and limited bullpen options, factors hopefully not to be repeated in September and on into 2011.

Whether it's actual good play, luck, randomness or a combination of all three, the Astros' post Trade Deadline winning has brought positive attention to a group that at its best was forgotten and at its worst was named the worst organization in baseball by Dave Cameron and Fangraphs. Dave's own ability to grade organizations notwithstanding, I, like I'm sure most of you, am much more enthused to think about and discuss the state of the Houston Astros than I was even a month ago.

While much of the Astros success of late has come from players that have been on the Astros for an extended period of time such as Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, Hunter Pence, Bud Norris and Michael Bourn, there at least appears to be a renewed commitment to building a winner, rather than mixing and matching pieces of major league scrap.

This past Tuesday's 16 inning victory against the Phillies brought to everyone's attention a future strength of the Astros: the bullpen. Ed Wade snark aside, he really has done a nice job assembling this group while turning over much of the roster simultaneously. Matt Lindstrom while recovering from injury right now, has improved his strikeout and walk rates, while posting a career best ground ball percentage. His contract should be an extremely reasonable amount next season (around $2 million, perhaps?), and would fit in well as our closer again in 2011.

For all of the (deserved) hub bub about Brandon Lyon's bad contract coming into the season, we haven't had to listen to much about it during the season. Lyon is what he is: a pretty good relief pitcher who doesn't strike out many but has limited the home run ball ridiculously well. Couple that with his pitching in some very high leverage situations for this team, and the versatile Lyon almost certainly will be pitching eighth innings for this team next season.

These two were the big name additions to the bullpen in 2010, but the less heralded Wilton Lopez has been a revelation to Astro fans. He walks guys damn well next to never and until he gave up the tying home run with two outs in the ninth in the aforementioned 16 inning marathon vs. Philly, Lopez hadn't given up a run since July 18th. That's right: July 18th! If he were a Tampa Bay Ray, the blogging community would have named a star after him. Since he's an Astro, well, even a blind squirrel...

After the late inning men, the 2011 edition of our bullpen will not be short on options to be used as the two Brads see fit. Younger relief pitchers Mark Melancon and Fernando Abad will compete for a roster spot next spring training after getting their first sniffs at life as an Astro this season. The injured troika of Alberto Arias, Sammy Gervacio and Chia Jen Lo haven't been mentioned a ton because they haven't pitched in quite some time, but if healthy, all three can contribute positively for a major league bullpen. To cap it off, what if Henry Villar, Matt Navarez or Wesley Wright figure something out this off season and impress the Astros in February and March?

Options are never a bad thing, and this team should have many coming out of the pen to begin the 2011 season. Jeff Fulchino was a lauded newcomer to the Astros in 2009, but he will have to really improve upon his 2010 campaign to even have a chance at a roster spot next season. It's amazing what can change in just two seasons, and the Astros bullpen is just a microcosm of the holistic changes surrounding this team. With much of 2010 yet to play, auditions begin now for a chance to play on one of the more interesting Astros teams in recent seasons.

A series win is exciting in and of itself, but today's was just a little more so. After scoring three runs in the first inning against Giants starter Matt Cain, Jason Castro wasn't satisfied. In leading off the second inning, Castro knocked a home run to start yet another three run inning for a team that has struggled to score with any sort of consistency this season. These past few games are obviously nothing to get too excited about, but the fact that Castro and Chris Johnson have both contributed immediately is something the Astros can hang their collective hats on as they head into Arlington, seeking a little revenge for the beat down the Rangers gave the Astros last weekend.

Wandy Rodriguez pitched six innings for the win, and a bevy of relievers aided in that process, with Matt Lindstrom closing out the game for his 17th save of the season. On the injury front, Geoff Blum once again filled in for Tommy Manzella, something we can expect to see for the next six weeks or so. Hopefully Oswaldo Navarro can get a start here or there as well, because Geoff Blum's ability to play short stop on a consistent basis has never really been tested at any point in his career, and certainly not recently.

Speaking of injuries, with Felipe Paulino heading to the DL, another Round Rockian, Josh Banks, will take his spot in the rotation for the immediate future beginning on Saturday. If it's not one thing, it's another with this team, I suppose. Winning baseball games is nice to see though, something that for the past couple weeks seemed an unreachable dream. I'll admit that before Tuesday, I had probably seen maybe 10 Jason Castro ABs over the course of his minor league career. In this three game series, he's displayed a lot of the skills that the Astros have touted since he was drafted in 2008. Peaks and valleys are a part of a young player's growth, but hopefully a player of his pedigree can have more of the former than the latter.

With the Astros having been entrenched as the worst team in the NL for the past few weeks, one would be hard pressed to find much of anything to praise Ed Wade for in constructing this club. Certainly his willingness to over pay for a Coors Field-enhanced Kaz Matsui in 2007 and a proclivity to ink relievers to higher than need be contracts have been and will be fair criticisms to direct towards Mr. Wade. As we know, it’s not what a GM does in any one offseason, it’s what he does over the course of multiple off seasons, which defines him as a failure or success.

I don’t want to turn this into a "defend Ed Wade at all costs post", because at this point we here at TCB have done that enough and the Astros record doesn’t really give me much of a leg to stand on at any rate. That all being said, I would like to make a different sort of argument, not to necessarily posit that Wade is a "good" GM or anything like that. Instead, I would like to do exactly what un-biased critics/evaluators cannot do when evaluating the tenure of a major league GM: look at them in a one season vacuum.

Obviously, the 2010 season is barely 1/3 over with so Ed Wade’s offseason decisions have over 100 games to make him look worse or possibly better than he does today. At least on the pitching side of things, his acquisitions: a hard throwing closer with plus stuff (Matt Lindstrom), an experienced set up man coming off an outstanding 2009 season (Brandon Lyon), a workhorse type starter looking to invigorate his career (Brett Myers) are moves that were and are more suited for a GM of a team which expected to seriously contend in the following season. Put another way, if Ed Wade was in charge of a team that was a few pieces away from an earnest pennant chase, he would be looked at as a genius. Instead, on a team which has struggled to win one out of every three games, Wade hasn’t seen any praise heaped his way.

Think about it this way: while even the best teams in baseball have holes on their 25 man roster, their holes are fewer than a team like the Astros. The four major moves Ed Wade made this off season, taken in vacuum, appear to be strong decisions made by a GM who believes his team has a true chance to compete. Matt Lindstrom certainly has the talent to close on a contending club, and given the chance to compete, he has shown that there are few other ninth inning men who can match him. Maybe on a team which had a closer by committee the previous season (Tampa Bay in 2009, for instance), Lindstrom could have came out on top in a spring training competition to become the full time closer?

Brandon Lyon’s contract is tougher to justify, but his resume, that of an experienced set up man whose calling card is ground balls and control pitching, certainly would appeal to a contending team who desires a steady, if not unspectacular bridge to their electric closer. Thus far, Lyon has defied his critics and has done exactly what Ed Wade brought him in to do: succeed when called upon and maintain the few late inning leads his teammates have built. That contract is the bugaboo, and one can argue that any GM who signs a reliever to a $15 million contract would never be able to build a winning ball club. While that may be true, Lyon has performed as well as anyone could have expected, and I believe would be able to pitch in the bullpen on most any team in the majors.

The move that most strongly resembles that of a perfect "good team" move is the signing of Brett Myers. While he is a number three (or given Wandy Rodriguez’ struggles, a number two) starter on a bad Astros team, a Cincinnati, St. Louis, Los Angeles team ball club could pencil Myers into their number four or five slot to complete a strong starting rotation. In all eleven of his starts for the Astros, Myers has pitched at least six innings, saving the bullpen and giving his team a chance to win. That sort of consistent production is exactly what good teams get from their starters. With a competent offense, Myers starts should have resulted in more than just six wins for the Astros, and I will assume would have for a division leader as well.

A last place team’s struggles are their own, and from top to bottom more blame should be going around than praise. This argument (if you can call it that) I just presented does pick and choose certain positive moves while disregarding negative ones (Feliz, Pedro for example). After watching this team lose with ease at times, it would be easy to curse the name of Ed Wade with every Cory Sullivan out or Tim Byrdak inning pitched. For what it’s worth though, Wade has brought in three extremely positive contributors in 2010- they would just have been better suited for just about any other team than the Astros.

In case you've forgotten, this is what winning a series is like. It took some sloppy defense on the part of Washington, and some timely hitting from Michael Bourn and Carlos Lee, but the Astros won their first series since a sweep against St. Louis three weeks ago. In so doing, the Astros reached the twenty win plateau, a mark previously thought unattainable....not really, but it sure as hell seemed like it at times.

Brian Moehler pitched about as well as Brian Moehler probably can, going 5.1 innings while giving up only 2 runs. Our middle relief corps looks like a scrap heap of left overs at this point in time, but Byrdak,  Fulchino and Daigle combined with Brandon Lyon to preserve a lead for Moehler. Times were good. The optimism was palpable. Matt Lindstrom retired the first two Nats in the ninth in order and all was right with the world. As it so often goes with the Astros though, things can never be that easy. Matt Morse singled up the middle and scored after Willie Harris' pop up to left went un-caught by a typically slow footed Carlos Lee. Not only did Lee fail to make the play, the ball's spin played tricks with Lee and the ball rolled back towards the corner allowing Morse to score. A Christian Guzman bloop to center field allowed Harris to trot home to give the Nationals a rather undeserved lead heading into the bottom of the ninth.

As if Tuesday's comeback wasn't enough, the Astros decided to treat us again. With one out, MB knocked a line drive double to right center, but Jeff Keppinger failed to score him, leaving it all up to Lance Berkman. Berkman knocked a rapidly falling liner into right field which should have gone for the third out, but instead Christian Guzman completely missed the ball on the fly. Bourn romped around third to score the tying run. Carlos Lee would see to it that Guzman would wear the title of least valuable player from Thursday's game, crushing a Matt Capps pitch for a game winning two run home run.

Tomorrow the Astros will welcome throngs of Chicago transplants, hangers-on and bandwagoners to Minute Maid Park. Then there's the draft next week. For a team with just 20 wins, the next few days are going to be fun.

Going back and researching a minor league player like Oswaldo Navarro leaves you with a certain sadness. At this point Navarro is probably giddy at the thought of joining a major league team, especially one where he is sure to see some playing time. I doubt the Astros organization has prepared Navarro for the call up, and it's not as if he is the next big thing on the farm and expecting a promotion at any time. On the contrary, Navarro has already been jettisoned from the Seattle Mariners' organization and is trying to make a go of things with the Astros this time around.

How successful he can be at the major league level is up for debate, though at this point the best we can probably hope for is production which is better than Tommy Manzella. Baseball Prospectus has Navarro as a respectable .275/.370/.463 hitter at this moment in the majors, as translated from his .312/.418/.506 line from Round Rock. We can expect to see some degree of fall off from that line, as Ozzie's career OPS of .649 indicates that not only is he playing a ways above his true ability, but he is playing at a unsustainable level even for AAA. Eight of his 24 minor league hits have gone for extra bases, and his walk rate is a not too shabby 13%. Bottom line: Ed Wade didn't have much to choose from, but at least with Navarro we have reason to be somewhat optimistic.

So how did Navarro make it to the Astros' organization? He is a 25 year old who the Mariners plucked from Venezuela in 2001. He never amounted to any sort of high graded prospect, but in 2005, Dave Cameron, touted Navarro's defensive abilities as being above par. Baseball Analysts seconded the scouting report of Cameron, as Navarro was a highly touted defensive shortstop during the 2006 season. As the article notes, the men on that list of glove minded shortstops were in the mold of future utility infielders, though only Ramiro Pena (Yankees) has been successful in that role with a major league team.

As Ed Wade acknowledged in his recent comments to the media, Navarro has a healthy minor league career under his belt but is just 25 years old and offers a greater degree of flexibility on the roster than did Matsui. It looks as if Jeff Keppinger is going to continue to get the lion's share of time at second base, with Manzella and Navarro most likely sharing time at shortstop. Wade has hinted that even more changes could be on the way which in reality won't boost our W-L %, but could stand to purge the roster of under-performing talent in favor of young options from the farm. At the quarter-season pole, the Astros' biggest issue is lack of production from the 3-4-5 hitters and unfortunately there is nobody in the minors who can help in that regard.

Jay Austin has improved as a hitter in each of his three pro seasons.

With the Astros farm system on the rebound, I think it's going to be a more frequent occurrence that we begin to see actual positive articles written about the future Astros playing in the minor leagues. This past week saw a duo of Astro minor leaguers, Jay Austin and Brian Bogusevic, get a little bit of fanfare for different reasons. For Austin, his youth has drawn attention from prospect watchers. Bogusevic's strong start this season is hopefully a reflection of his continued growth offensively after an amateur career as a pitcher.

The tough part about analyzing minor league players is determining who is and who isn't for real. Anyone who has gone to the Express' or Hooks' websites and clicked on the statistics page can see glittering minor league numbers which don't always tell the whole story about a player. An example of this is current Round Rock shortstop Oswaldo Navarro. His sparking offensive numbers at a defensive intensive position could lead an unwary fan to believe that Navarro could be our solution at shortstop. Further examination would reveal that Navarro is already 25, doesn't have a great track record of minor league success and is playing for his second organization. His stats in limited ABs may be impressive, but that probably isn't enough to grab the attention of the powers that be with the Astros.

It was a pleasant surprise to see one of our teen-Stros make Baseball America's list of top under 20 players who are playing above low A ball. Jay Austin is a 19 year old, athletic outfielder who has shown increased plate discipline in each of his prior two minor league campaigns. This continued improvement has shone through in his 2010 season. What has most impressed me is his K:BB rate of 17:13 in 105 AB. It's clear that Austin came into our system with discipline issues but he has seen steady, positive growth in that area. His stolen base percentage is outstanding at 83.3%, and has knocked four homers already. I realize that Lancaster statistics must be taken with a grain of salt, but for a player like Austin, I am more optimistic than I would be with most. His skill set isn't as a power hitter, but as a contact hitter- someone who succeeds by putting balls in play and using his speed. All of the indicators in this regard are trending up. His level of success at 19 is really what should cause us all to take a look at Austin as an option down the line in the Astro outfield.

With Brian Bogusevic, we all know his story as one being out of the ordinary. Moving from being a pitcher to professional hitter is not a road traveled with regularity. The early returns weren't all that promising, and with younger options like Austin, T.J. Steele and others lurking below him in Corpus Christi, Lexington and Lancaster, Bogusevic was and still is in danger of being passed up in the pecking order of baby Astros outfielders. Unlike Austin though, Bogusevic's uptick in production has seemingly come out of nowhere. After displaying little to no power in his first two seasons as a hitter, Brian's 13 XBH are nearly 1/3 of his total base knocks this season. It isn't as if he's gone from being a fourth outfielder to a potential starter in 105 ABs, but this is the sort of unexpected, yet welcome surprise that minor leaguers can on occasion exhibit. It's unlikely this kind of play is sustainable, but if he can continue to grow as a hitter I don't think it's out of the question for him to become a fourth or fifth outfielder as soon as next season.

Also on the Baseball America list are Jordan Lyles (19 years old), Jiovanni Mier (19), and Tanner Bushue (18). Bushue came from a small high school in Illinois so he is going to be a little behind developmentally compared to other high schoolers in all likelihood. His numbers thus far are solid to good though. Mier had a strong 2009 season in rookie ball, but hasn't played all that well in 2010 in Lexington. The adventures of Jordan Lyles have been well chronicled, and he is our top pitching prospect. Already pitching for AA Corpus Christi and pitching well for that matter is a welcome sign for a depleted farm system. These five players may be at different stages in their careers, but all five have a good shot at ending up playing for the Astros at some point.

For a team that is 11-21, taking note of their set up man and closer is a little like a car dealer praising the brakes on a car with a faulty engine. Unless the car can get going, the brakes never come into play. Like a sputtering auto, the Astros have had all sorts of trouble scoring runs and ultimately winning baseball games. Games have been frustrating to watch of late due to the overall level of incompetence offensively. It's tough to have much faith in a team when a two run deficit feels like 6 or 7 (with the exception of last night).

This is a shame, because there are players on this team that are actually playing well. Not surprisingly, most of these players are on the pitching staff. Matt Lindstrom in particular  was given the task before the season began of closing out games for the Astros, after our previous closer, Jose Valverde, had a great deal of success in 2008 and 2009. The fact that Ed Wade gave up more minor leaguers for Lindstrom didn't ease the amount of pressure/expectations the duo would face this season. After a rocky start, Lindstrom has come into his own and has performed as well as we could probably hope.

As a closer, Matt Lindstrom has been able to do two things which are positives for relief pitchers protecting small leads. Thus far Lindstrom's stats have come full circle from his 2009 campaign which saw fluctuate from being ineffective to extremely ineffective. For starters, his ground ball rate has been an outlier as compared to the rest of his career in 2010. A steady rate in the mid 40% range has seen a dramatic uptick through 15.1 IP with the Astros, up to a career high 56.8%. This could be a function of the small sample size, or perhaps the increased usage of his slider has helped to keep balls on the ground rather than in the air. After pitching for the same organization during the first three seasons of his ML career, a move to Houston and change in pitching coaches to Brad Arnsberg may be a reason as well. Could Arnsberg have seen something in Lindstrom's slider during the off season which caused him to emphasize the pitch once Spring Training began?

The other outlier which I noticed for Mr. Lindstrom is that he has walked batters at a career low rate. Really though, that's not fair to say. In truth, Lindstrom has blown away his previous walk rates with impunity. Jumping down to 1.8 BB per nine innings from his 4+ walks/9 IP in 2008 and 2009 is truly impressive. Our closer is really making hay in throwing first pitch strikes more frequently than in his Florida Marlin days. Getting ahead of hitters 0-1 is especially important for a closer because opposing hitters know that you're coming with either a fastball or slider and not much else. Falling behind means the fastball is more likely to be thrown and that can lead to trouble. His throwin strike one early and gaining the upper hand has surely been a factor in batters expanding the zone and swinging at pitches outside the strikezone almost 10% more this season (34.3%)  than last (24.4%). Again, I don't know for sure that Brad Arnsberg and the other Astro coaches have played a role in this change, but it would be tough to argue that they haven't had some effect on this improvement.

Could all this come crashing down at any moment? It could. Given Lindstrom's track record of inconsistent play, a career low BABIP and a LOB% of 90.2%, rough times may yet find the last man in the Houston pen. Despite these potential pot-holes, there have been noticeable and quantifiable improvements in his game which have shown through in his time on the mound. If the Astro offense is ever able to score even an average amount of runs on a consistent basis, Lindstrom should be able to get on the field more frequently and show off his impressive arsenal and improved game plan.