
Evanz
Jan 06, 2010 May 30, 2012 302 10971
a fan of
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Golden State Warriors
San Francisco 49ers
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Harrison Barnes ooping. Looks pretty athletic here.
Chad Ford Interview of Perry Jones
Ford: Who do you model your game after?
PJIII: Al Thornton has called me Tracy McGrady a couple of times.
Is Jones Peanut Butter or Jelly?
One GM says: "That sort of talent doesn't come along very often," one GM said. "As I was watching the workout, I thought you finally got to see what a freed-up Perry Jones could do if a coach just lets him be himself. He could be a dominant, and I mean dominant, forward with his size, athletic ability and skill set. I think he's a hard worker and will be a much better contributor if you give him the chance to be himself. I'd have no concerns drafting him in the top five. He could be a home run of a pick."The other GM says: "Of all the guys that are in your top 10, I'd have the hardest time taking him," another GM said. "I know he wants to be a 3, but I don't think he does anything that we ask our 3s to do that is special. He's not a great shooter. He doesn't have a great handle. He's not an aggressive defender. He's got great size and athleticism, but he's not skilled enough. That means he'll end up being a stretch 4, which is a euphemism for a guy who doesn't have a position. "Could he be great? Sure. But I think he's a major project and a major risk. There are safer picks in the top 10 with very good upsides. I think there's a good chance that he slides in the draft as people continue to wrestle with who he is."
Warriors Body Doubles: Player Comparisons using Pre-Draft Measurements
I just did a massive data scraping from Draft Express, pulling 12 years worth of draft measurements, which I will use for analysis leading up to the big day. One of the things that we often seem to do around here is compare physical measurements (height, weight, reach, and wingspan) of draftees or current Warriors with other players around the league. It's a PITA to look this stuff up, but I think I can make it a little easier. And I'll give you an example using our current roster.
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Permanent Draft Chat
Let's use this perma-thread for discussing all thing draft related, including trades involving picks. Ok? (in other words, please for the love of the flying spaghetti monster, post your draft thoughts* here, and not in random FanShots, so I don't get angry at you, because you won't like me when I'm angry, kthnksbye) *Of course, if you want to write a more detailed FanPost about the draft, you should do that. The idea with the permashot is to have one ongoing discussion for people to post comments that aren't quite FanPost or FanShot worthy.
7 days ago
Evanz
84 comments
7 recs
7. Golden State — John Henson, PF North Carolina
The most Golden State Warriors pick ever, right? Think Ekpe Udoh, Brandan Wright (via draft-day trade), Anthony Randolph and others. David Lee is solid, but I think they could give in to Henson's monster range and massive potential.
Klay Thompson named 6th best rookie.
Klay Thompson 6th in R.O.Y. voting.
#2 Prospect John Henson
Long shot blocking skilled big. NBA skill is his size, skill level, and ability to block shots., rebound, as well as adding back to the basket offense to his game. He’s another big man in this draft that is extremely active and energetic. Very good shot blocker and active rebounder on both ends of the floor. His offensive game is much improved from last year. Very good with backdowns in the paint for hooks and spinning off his man. His face up game as well is improved from last year. Besides the Zeller boys, Henson could be the most skilled big man in the draft. Very potent rebounder averaging a rebound every 2.87 mins which is a very good number for bigmen. HIs body could be an issue as some compare him to Brandan Wright with his skinny frame. I think hes slightly stronger than Wright and cill be fine. I can see him being a 3rd – 4th best player on a good NBA team by year 5.
Mike Procopio of HoopConsultants, works with guys like Kobe and Wade on skills and game strategy.
Caught me by surprise to see Henson #2 on his list.
Here's what he had to say about Brandon Rush a few years ago:
“Brandon Rush is one of the top wing players in the draft. No one plays off the ball better than him. He brings a lot of things to the table, starting with his very good size, which allow him to play either the 2 or the 3. He is long, athletic, and has a great basketball IQ. He can already make shots from deep. You can run him off pick and roll plays, pin downs, and he’s great in transition.
He reminds me of Caron Butler. He has the ability to handle the ball, spot-up and make deep shots, and defend. He can do so much. The sky is the limit for him. I think in time, he develop into a team’s second or third best player. He can be a top 50 player in this league without question, because he can do so much, and he’s so athletically gifted. At that position you need, length, speed, size, and skills-- and he has all that. Some of the 2’s in this draft are very limited, very undersized. This kid can do a lot of things. He’s been going full speed since he got here. He has a lot of upside. He’s a guy you have to discuss from 5 on. You can put him in the same breath as Gallinari, Eric Gordon. He needs to learn some things, but I really like Brandon Rush, I’m a big fan. Whether we trained him or not.”
From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1uxU2nVnA
http://www.draftexpress.com
16 days ago
Evanz
116 comments
1 recs
timkawakami: OK, there's some confusion on at least one site that picked up the GSW/ Meyers Leonard info & misinterpreted what I wrote...
timkawakami: If GSWs keep their pick, they're looking SF (draft/trade). Leonard is an option if they combine OTHER picks & trade back into mid-1st rd.
State of the Warriors Part I: Seriously Advanced Offensive Player Summaries for 2012
The crickets are getting restless. The draft lottery is still a few weeks away, and while many Warriors fans have probably taken the summer off already, hardcore GSoMers like you are in need of some nourishment to keep you going. I'm here to satisfy a little bit of that hunger with some advanced stats, and not your run-of-the-mill TS% or USG%. I trust that if you're reading this now, you're smart and resourceful enough to look up those stats on your own. Heck, I'm sure you already have. No, even so-called "advanced stats" are not good enough for GSoM. In this post, I'm going to give a rundown of Synergy and my own metric Adjusted Four Factor +/- (A4PM), which breaks down RAPM into a player's effects on team shooting efficiency, turnover rates, rebounding, and free throw attempts.
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NBA franchises spend anywhere from 50 million to 100 million on yearly salaries, plus another few million per year evaluating and developing players. For a scout or general manager (I've only been the latter), seeing a prospect for one measly four-month season of college ball increases the risk of being wrong about his potential. Remember, talent evaluation is a business in which, in the words of Jerry West, the greatest GM of all time, "Being right 51 percent of the time means you're doing well." Having an extra season to assess the potential of college players would cut down on the personnel mistakes that teams inevitably make in the draft, something that could potentially save the league tens of millions of dollars every year.
The Case for the 20-Year-Old Age Limit in the NBA
Not really to the point of his article, but you got to like that we have West on our side, eh?
Are The Warriors Right? They Believe Their GM Is Smarter Than Yours
The following is a comment I posted on this Wages of Wins post today, which I can almost guarantee will not get published there, so I'm posting it here instead.
I remember when Jeremy said the Warriors would win 50 games a couple seasons ago, because of David Lee.
http://wagesofwins.com/2010/07/14/warriors-stumble-on-50-wins/
But then some stuff happened, David Lee got hurt, so that probably was the reason they didn’t make it.
http://wagesofwins.com/2011/02/08/how-the-warriors-stumbled-instead/
So, then he said when David Lee got healthy, they’d probably win 40 or 50.
Alas, that didn’t quite work out the way Jeremy had predicted.
I think for now I’ll trust Myers who did what many of us had wanted for a long time. He shipped off Monta Ellis and he brought in a legitimate big man in Bogut. Injuries are risks that every team faces. But without taking these risks, the Warriors had very little chance of improving.
And for all the anti-tanking logic around here and elsewhere, the Warriors now have a much better chance of keeping their lottery pick than they did halfway through the season. A season that was going nowhere fast, anyway.
Click here for full size version.
Statistical similarities. These are organized like the phylogenetic trees you probably remember from high school biology. I used some basic stats to compare players in this year's draft class with the final year for players in the last 6 draft classes (since 2006). Have fun searching for your favorite current or future Warrior!
29 days ago
Evanz
36 comments
2 recs
Warriors Win the Gosh Darn Coin Flip
Fingers crossed. I propose we take a vow of silence until the lottery is held to avoid jinxing ourselves.
| gswscribe SOURCE: GSW won the tie-breaker and will be slotted No. 7 The Warriors now have a 72.5 percent chance of keeping ... http://t.co/8Zw7tN8P 4/27/12 3:41 PM |
| BeckleyMason Breaking: Warriors win coin flip 4/27/12 3:10 PM |
| warriors (1/3) NBA has conducted random drawing to determine the Warriors' 2012 pre-lottery draft position. 4/27/12 4:25 PM |
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warriors |
| warriors (3/3) Overall, Warriors win 3 of 4 drawings today. FULL DETAILS: http://t.co/wadvC3iV 4/27/12 4:27 PM |
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My Anti-Anti-Tanking Rant of the Day
Sorry, but I'm tired of the anti-tanking stories. The Warriors are being unfairly prosecuted for something that is well within their rights to do. As far as I know, there are no "integrity of the game" rules that prevent a team from tanking.
How do I know this? Have you freaking watched some of the lineups that Boston and Miami have put out there recently?
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Warriors Name Bob Myers GM, Larry Riley Moves to Director of Scouting
| warriors OFFICIAL: Warriors promote Bob Myers to General Manager. Press Release: http://t.co/rrkpv0Xb 4/24/12 4:30 PM |
The Golden State Warriors have promoted Bob Myers to General Manager, the team announced today. Larry Riley, who has spent the last four years in the Warriors’ front office – including the last 12 months as General Manager/Executive VP of Basketball Operations – will remain with the organization as the team’s Director of Scouting.
Myers, 37, joined the Warriors on April 14, 2011 as Assistant General Manager/Vice President of Basketball Operations following a highly-successful 14-year stint as a representative to numerous NBA players. During the last year with Golden State, Myers has worked closely under the tutelage of Riley on all Basketball Operations matters, including contract negotiations, talent evaluation, roster management, scouting and CBA compliance. In his new role, Myers will report to Co-Executive Chairman & CEO Joe Lacob and will oversee the entire Basketball Operations Department on a day-to-day basis.
Big news just came across twitter. What do you guys think? It's about time or should have happened sooner or later?
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Polling Your Golden State of Mind: Which Former Warriors Player Would You Trade the 7th Pick for?
The tank has undergone some heavy fire, but let's stay positive. We Believe, or something, right? Just for kicks I thought it would be fun to do this poll. Call it wishful thinking or willful ignorance of the facts. At least, it's something to tank talk about.
Game Thread #63: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (Somebody's Got to Win)
The Rockets have lost 6 in a row. The Warriors have lost 7 in a row. Who has the greater will to lose? Ok, that's not fair. Neither team is trying to lose, and at least one of the two teams certainly doesn't benefit from losing. And this is an interesting development:
| MSteinmetzCSN According to Warriors, neither Nate Robinson nor Dorell Wright will play tonight. Bogut, Curry, Lee, Biedrins, Wright, Robinson all out. 4/21/12 6:58 PM |
So not a single starter from opening day is suiting up tonight. (Side note: I've always thought that was a strange expression. After all, they actually *will* be in suits.) The rooks are gonna get some run tonight. Hopefully their young legs can handle it.
TV: Probably somewhere.
Radio: Seriously?
Blog Buddy: The Dream Shake Game Thread
Updated Lottery Odds
The good folks at Basketball Prospectus just updated their Lottery Odds. Hit the jump to see the full simulation.
"I thought I was a top-five pick coming out, but there's a lot of East Coast bias and I wasn't on TV a lot at Washington State," Thompson said. "I really wanted to go to Orlando and be around the All-Stars and be a part of that whole weekend. I thought I was easily one of the top nine rookies (selected to the rookie-sophomore game), but I hope I've proved in the second half of the season that I deserved it."
Also...Klay #1 on Rookie Ladder. Congrats, Mr. Thompson!
about 1 month ago
Evanz
111 comments
2 recs
Lee, who averaged 20.1 points and 9.6 rebounds, said he has been shut down for the season because of groin and hip injuries that have been troubling him for the past couple of weeks. The Warriors' doctors performed an MRI exam on Lee on Friday and found a stress reaction that risked severe injury with continued play.
"It's unfortunate, because I wanted to finish out the season strong," said Lee, who had gone through a sleeve of pain medication since initially injuring his hip. "I was willing to go through any means necessary to try to play these last games, but the doctors didn't leave any gray area for me."
about 1 month ago
Evanz
303 comments
1 recs
Due to consistent groin pain that he has been experiencing for the past several weeks, Warriors forward David Lee underwent an MRI this morning that revealed a strained groin and a stress reaction. Following the MRI, Lee was told by team doctors that he should not play until he is fully healed, or risk causing further substantial injury.
Lee traveled with the team to Los Angeles today, but will not play in tomorrow’s game against the Clippers. He will continue receiving treatment from the Warriors athletic training staff and will be evaluated periodically by the team’s doctors.
Following last night’s game versus Dallas, Warriors forward/guard Richard Jefferson experienced swelling in his right knee. After being evaluated by the team’s medical staff earlier today, he was scheduled to undergo an MRI in the Bay Area late this afternoon. Results of the MRI will be released when available.
Jefferson will remain in the Bay Area to receive treatment and miss tomorrow’s game in Los Angeles against the Clippers.
about 1 month ago
Evanz
122 comments
2 recs
Updated Lottery Odds
I just got these from an article by Dan Feldman over at Basketball Prospectus. The chances of keeping this pick are not looking good at all. For details of the simulation, see here.
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I kind of want this guy in the second round. His name is Eric Griffin. Obviously reminds you immediately of Jeremy Evans.
http://eye-on-college-basketball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/33968698
Game Thread #56: Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets Let's Do This! (Seriously)
We've won the first two games of the series against Denver this season...so we're due...for a loss, right? One can hope, anyway.
All snarky tank humor aside, I've pretty much given up hope on the tank. Even if we "pass" Detroit, at this point it's looking less and less likely that we'll end up in anything higher than the 8th spot.
So now I'll be watching the games simply hoping to see our young guys battle and improve. Maybe good karma will give us a better shot of jumping into the top 3 of the lottery.
Blog Buddy: Denver Stiffs
A Ranking of Golden State Warriors Scorers in the 3-Point Era
Amidst all this talk of tanking lately, I thought it would be nice to mix it up a bit and throw some Warriors-related stats and history at you today. Recently at my blog, I've been working on a new scoring metric. It's a relatively simple combination of TS% and USG%, which thus tries to account for both efficiency (TS%) and volume (USG%) simultaneously, and does so in (I think) a novel way. Here, I'll use this new metric to do a ranking of Warriors players since the 3-pt shot came into effect, and I'll also throw in a table showing just this season. I don't mean for this to be controversial, even though I'm sure some of you will disagree with the list. But hey, it might be fun arguing about something other than our next win, er, loss.
Detailed Tank Predictions for the "Subpar 6"
I updated my Vegas ratings this morning. The Warriors are in pretty bad shape on the court, but good shape with respect to their chances of keeping that lottery pick. Read on for the nitty gritty.
Michael Jordan and Joe Lacob have secretly agreed to swap picks on draft day. The deal would send Charlotte's pick (likely to be Anthony Davis) to Golden State for David Lee and our pick. The deal would be conditional on our having a top 7 pick and Charlotte landing the top spot.
It is unknown at this time why Michael Jordan would do this move. One source told me, hey, if MJ can't make it work in Charlotte, he damn well doesn't want to see anyone make it work, as it would tarnish his reputation. Basically, this would be a "poison pill" that would all but ensure the NBA contracts the league and eliminates or moves the franchise.
As to why MJ has decided to do this deal with Joe Lacob, my sources say, he felt bad for Joe being booed a couple weeks ago. Also, MJ wants to get back into acting, and so the connections with Peter Guber made a lot of sense. Apparently, he wants to produce Space Jam 2, and Guber is reported to have green-lighted the project.
My sources are anonymous.
about 1 month ago
Evanz
55 comments
2 recs
Podcast: EvanZ Talking Warriors-Bucks Trade with Brewhoop's Steve von Horn
Steve von Horn (@stevevonhorn) does a lot of great writing over at the SBNation blog BrewHoop. We've been interacting through twitter quite a bit over the past few months, and since the Ellis-Udoh-Kwame-Bogut-SJax trade went down, I've been commenting over there a bit more. He wrote a very nice analysis of the trade yesterday that featured some of my statistical metrics.
So, when Steve invited me to do a podcast with him for BrewHoop, naturally I said yes and this is the result. We basically cover the past, present, and future of both franchises in the wake of what will likely be considered the biggest trade deadline deal this season (and maybe in quite some time depending on how things turn out). There's a little bit of choppy editing in parts, because Steve's 21-month old daughter was getting a little rambunctious in the background. And it's my first podcast, so be kind!
Also, if you would like to hear more podcasts (something I've been in favor of doing around here), let us know in the comments.
Here's the link if you're using a smartphone: Download this episode (right click and save)
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Golden State Warriors Updated Tank Standings and Predictions
We all know the story by now. In order for the Warriors to keep their lottery pick this year, they have to finish in the top 7 of the lottery. If they finish with the 7th worst record, they will have about a 75% chance of keeping the pick (because teams can jump ahead of them), and if they finish with the 6th worst record, that chance goes up to about 95%. Conversely, if they finish with the 8th worst record or lower, their chances go below 5% of retaining the pick.
Here, I am going to take a look at the teams currently with the 4th through 11th worst records (CHA, WAS, and NOH are pretty much locks for the bottom three), and predict where these teams will finish using my Vegas Power Ratingscalculated a few days ago. If you're interested in seeing our chances, keep reading. If you don't like any discussion of tanking, go do something else.
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