SBNation.com User Blog: Evanz

Recap: Warriors Engineer Reverse Collapse Vs Spurs to Tie Series 2-2

Evanz — Mon, 13 May 2013 01:50:12 -0000

Here's my recap in the form of a fake post-game interview with Gregg Popovich.

EZ: How did the Warriors win this game?

Pop: They made more shots than we did.

EZ: What did you think about Stephen Curry?

Pop: Is that really your question? I think the same thing about him as everyone else. I don't have any great insight that any other observer of basketball watching him doesn't have already. He's a great shooter. He made tough shots basically on one leg. He's a great shooter. Is that what you want me to say? Great shooter. There. I said it again. You can quote me even. Heck of a shooter. And he can pass. But everyone knows that. We did a pretty good job limiting the number of good looks he got though.

EZ: How does it make you feel that you held Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry to 32 points total, yet Jarrett Jack and Harrison Barnes go out and combine for 50 points?

Pop: How do you think that makes me feel? It's not a great feeling. Do you think I should feel good about that? (looking around the room) Who asked that question?

EZ: How did Harrison Barnes have such a big game?

Pop: He took a lot of shots. That's usually a pre-requisite for scoring a lot of points. But give the kid credit. For a young kid like that...what is he, 19? 20? Yeah, not the most efficient game, but that's the kind of game it was all around. Shot better than most of our guys, to be honest. Got to give it to the kid, it was a nice game the kid had. But we can live with that kid taking a lot of shots. We'll live with that. He had some mis-matches. It could've been worse for us actually. I've been impressed with that kid.

EZ: Manu was really hot in the first half, but cooled off in the second half. Any thoughts on that?

Pop: Yeah, same thoughts as you obviously. He was hitting shots in the first half, but then not hitting shots in the second half. (laughter) I thought that was fairly obvious. No great insight there. Maybe his legs got a little tired late in the game. But yeah. Just hit more shots early on. That's just basketball. Sometimes shots go in. Sometimes shots don't go in.

EZ: Why didn't you go to Tim Duncan more when Bogut picked up his fourth foul?

Pop: (Looks down at his stat sheet.) Tim had 22 shots and only hit 7 of them. Am I right about that? How many more times should we have gone to him? Bogut is one of the few guys in the league that can play Tim straight up. It was a good defensive effort on his part to keep Tim from getting a lot of good looks without fouling. Obviously it would've been nice if Bogut picked up another foul. But he didn't.

EZ: Are there any adjustments you can make for Game 5 to get the Spurs offense back to what it was during the regular season?

Pop: Is that a serious question? We just need to make shots. When you don't make shots, it's tough to win basketball games. We got to figure out a way to make more shots than they do. That's the adjustment we'll try to make. Any other questions? Ok, thanks, folks. See you in a couple days.

Warrior Wonder

I love that this team can be tied 2-2 with the vaunted San Antonio Spurs in Round 2 with Jarrett Jack being the Warrior Wonder. Eventually I'll get used to stuff like this, I suppose.

Parting Thoughts

I know Jarrett Jack dribble-dribble-dribble-yep-still-dribbling can sometimes be frustrating, but I think there's some method to the madness. The Warriors obviously have significant turnover issues (18 tonight, for example). It would be great to pass the ball around more, but with Lee out of action, that's easier said than done. Pretty much every time Klay or Barnes takes the ball up the floor, I'm biting my nails worried about them turning the ball over. So while many among you and fans elsewhere have expressed serious consternation about Jack's Rube Goldbergian dribbling tendencies, I blame it on counterfactuals relating to turnover minimization that the coaching staff has thought deeply about. At least, this is what I tell myself.

Recap: Warriors Magically Top Nuggets 110-108

Evanz — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 14:19:24 -0000

via cdn.memegenerator.net

Every great magic trick consists of three parts or acts. The first part is called "The Pledge". The magician shows you something ordinary: a deck of cards, a bird or a man. He shows you this object. Perhaps he asks you to inspect it to see if it is indeed real, unaltered, normal. But of course... it probably isn't.

The Pledge was the Warriors' regular season. A seemingly normal team that played somewhat above its head (indeed, defied most pre-season expectations) and just barely hung on to the 6th seed, which almost surely meant first round elimination at the hands of the vaunted Denver Nuggets who "can't lose at home" and have depth enough to spare for two playoff teams. It was thought by most that the Warriors might make the series competitive by winning 1 or 2 games in Oakland, but surely couldn't even win a single game in Denver where the Nuggets had only lost 3 games all season.

And to make matters worse, in the thick of a spirited Game 1, the Warriors lost their lone All-Star (*cough*for now*cough*) and "20-10" man David Lee to a season-ending injury. You couldn't have blamed the team if it laid down its arms after Game 1 and waived a white flag. Their "nice" season looked to be over. But...

The second act is called "The Turn". The magician takes the ordinary something and makes it do something extraordinary. Now you're looking for the secret... but you won't find it, because of course you're not really looking. You don't really want to know. You want to be fooled. But you wouldn't clap yet. Because making something disappear isn't enough; you have to bring it back.

Mark Jackson started Harrison Barnes at PF in Game 2, and the Warriors went on to execute perhaps the greatest offensive display seen in the last few decades of playoff basketball. I'm biased, sure, but I've never seen anything like what happened on last Tuesday night. It was magic. Pure and simple. But was it real?

That's why every magic trick has a third act, the hardest part, the part we call "The Prestige"

Could the Warriors come back after Game 2, avoid a let down, adjust to the adjustments that the Nuggets would surely make, and actually pull off another win?

At the end of the first half, down by 12, it felt like the magic trick had been revealed. But it turned out the Warriors have quite a bit of magic left. A few dazzling scoop layups and some fortuitous bounces of the basketball later, the Warriors hung on to a 2-point win, and in effect, won Game 3 the way they just barely let slip a win in Game 1 of the series.

How are they doing it? This team, like We Believe before it, seems to be more than the sum of its parts. Even on a night when Klay Thompson brought his C game on offense (it should be noted his defense is arguably moving into A territory), this team seemingly has an endless supply of offensive weapons. Someone is prepared to step up. And it's not just other-worldly Stephen Curry, whose magic we have almost come to expect by now (that sense of magic is what defines a "superstar" in my book). It's Jarrett Jack, who despite some bone-headed turnovers, is playing out of his mind for a guy who many of us ----

OK, admission time. I have to point out that my pre-season projection for Jarrett Jack was 16 minutes per game "and hopefully less". I was not a fan. Boy, was I wrong about Jarrett Jack.

Last night Jack had 23 points on 72% TS. And then there is Harrison Barnes ---

Harrison Barnes has been better in the NBA than he was in college. I didn't know what this meant before this season, and I'm not sure I believed it was possible. But he is.

Oh, and btw, Harrison Barnes has been better in the NBA playoffs than he was during the NBA regular season. HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE? One word. Magic.

But it doesn't stop there. Andrew Bogut. THIS IS ANDREW BOGUT. The enforcer. The inside presence. The "legitimate" 7-footer that this franchise has been missing for so, so long. And he appears to finally be rounding into basketball shape, after an up-and-down season in which he appeared to have lost the essence of the Bogut we had all hoped to have acquired last season. But THIS Bogut is what we needed. It's hard to know whether Bogut finally feels right, or whether he's stepping up in David Lee's absence, or whether all along, maybe the plan Bogut had in mind was to save himself for playoff basketball. Whatever it is, it feels a little like magic.

Jack, Barnes, Bogut, oh brother, it doesn't even stop there. Draymond Green?! Are you kidding me? Dude hit like 4 3-pointers this season (ok, it was 14, but still), and the Warriors are whipping the ball around the court to find HIM in the corner. WUT. And then Green calmly nails the 3. And then proceeds a few possessions later to slash to the basket, blowing by Nugget after Nugget in disbelief, and lays in the ball on the backside of the basket. Green was the goat of Game 1, but he has shown why Mark Jackson has so much confidence in the young man.

Carl Landry! It just, I can't. What is going on with my pre-conceived notions of these players? I was not a big Carl Landry fan before this season. But the guy has been vital to the Warriors success this season. And now in David Lee's absence, he is stepping up big time. Last night he had 19 points and basically took Lee's place as the outlet when "you just need to get a basket". Landry wasn't super efficient (53% TS), but when you take into account his 35% USG rate last night, you can see how crucial the offensive role he is playing. He needed to step up with Lee out, and he has stepped up. And it's magic.

Finally. Festus Ezeli. He only played 8 minutes last night, but man, you noticed him. Ty Lawson surely noticed him, but perhaps, just a bit too late.

Another brief aside --- re: Ty Lawson. Ty Lawson was amazing, and it's a shame (not for us, of course) that his teammates are not rising to the same level of play.

This Warriors team is more than its players. And I believe a lot of that "more" can be attributed to their head coach Mark Jackson. All those silly Jackson-isms aside, dude knows how to preach. And this team, with its youth, and its journey men, and its big man still needing to prove himself after 9 years in the league, this team appears to believe in Jackson as much as he believes in them.

And, of course, there's Oracle. If that place isn't magic, then there is no magic in the world.

This series is far from over. But it's also far from where it began. I can't wait to see what magic the Warriors have left to show us. How about you?

Recap: Warriors Don't Barely Win Game 1 in Denver

Evanz — Sun, 21 Apr 2013 01:17:22 -0000

This guy.

via static.tvtropes.org

Oops, I mean this guy:

srsly

Well, that was an eventful game. We don't come to party often, but when we come to the party,

It's a party!

Andre Miller is a stone cold point guard assassin. 37-year old (don't knock it til you try it) just dropped 28 points in 27 minutes, including the game-winner against "defensive stopper" Draymond Green. Not exactly the way I pictured this game going down.

Everyone thought Stephen Curry was going to "break out" in this series, and while that's still quite possible, he was stifled most of the night (or early evening, anyway) by constant pressure and double (or even triple) teams. But he did manage to find his teammates, and he did hit that sweet game-tying shot in the corner. And hey, he still ended up with 19 points (albeit on 20 shots, so not very efficient).

While Curry had a rough offensive effort, Klay Thompson seemingly picked up his slack. At least, for a while. At the end of the night, Klay was a somewhat more efficient 10 of 19 for 22 points. Note that between Steph and Klay, there was exactly one free throw attempt, and that was a technical that Curry took after an illegal defense penalty.

The Warrior who really stepped up tonight was Andrew Bogut, and it's reflected in his +10 differential for the night, highest on the team (Curry was +8, everyone else except for Draymond was negative). Bogut played 31 minutes of staunch defense (except JaVale's thunderous 180 windmill-from-a-standstill-dunk over him), picking up 14 rebounds and 4 blocked shots (Klay had 3 himself, btw). Bogut was the difference maker in this one, keeping the Warriors in the game, when it otherwise might have turned into a blowout.

Some nights the shots just don't fall like you want them to. It happens. David Lee had a worse game than Curry, going 4-14 for only 10 points, and that was before he suffered what looked like a painful injury and had to come out of the game. Let's hope he's ok for the rest of the series. Carl Landry didn't have a stellar game either, going 6 for 14. Both of these guys probably have some trouble scoring over the length of the Denver frontcourt. McGee displayed that to full effect when he pinned an attempted Lee dunk to the backboard on a spectacular blocked shot.

With Faried out, and with Lee's health in question, this game could literally be the one road win that got away. On the other hand, perhaps, Jackson and crew can figure out a way to adjust to Denver's defense on Curry, and help him get off the way we all know he's capable of. To some extent, that's what makes the result of this game frustrating yet at the same time, somewhat encouraging. We barely lost this game, and did it with pretty poor performances from the majority of our offensive threats.

And that's just Game 1 folks. We've waited a long time for this.

And damn if it wasn't worth the wait. This is awesome.

Also, Evan Fournier.

Warriors vs. Jazz Preview: One Win And We're In

Evanz — Sun, 07 Apr 2013 02:16:18 -0000

Where: Oracle Arena in Oakland

When: 5 PST

TV: CSN Bay Area

Radio: KNBR 680/1050

Blog Buddy: SLC Dunk

In many ways a win this evening against the Utah Jazz would represent the beginning of a journey, not the end of one. A win represents a playoff birth for the first time since We Believe. A win versus the Jazz would signal in earnest the beginning of a serious era in Warriors basketball. An era of playoff basketball, of thinking more about the post-season than, well, Vegas Summer League (which sadly too many of us have placed considerable amount of interest in over the years). A win tonight means we have to start seriously thinking, not just about getting to the playoffs, not just about how this team is built for regular season wins, but more about how we are going to win games in the post-season with this iteration of Warriors basketball.

The core of this Warriors team is very young still. The starting 5 are all under 30, and positions 1-3 are 25 or under. There is definitely room to tinker with the formula, based on what we will see in the playoffs. Whether it's Denver, LAC, or Memphis, our thoughts will quickly turn from today's (significant) achievement to next year's expectation of winning basketball.

First things first, though. Tonight we play a Jazz team that is fighting for their lives to overtake the Lakers for the 8th and final spot in the playoffs. A Jazz team that definitely has talent (Favors, Millsap, Jefferson, Kanter, Burks, Hayward), but has been beset by backcourt injuries and arguably indecision about which way is forward (notably the non-decision about trading Millsap or Jefferson, when they clearly could have got some value). To top it off, their coach Tyrone Corbin could be looking at a pink slip, if he doesn't manage to secure that 8th seed. Needless to say, the Jazz have plenty of reasons to come out breathing fire this evening, and our Warriors better be prepared to do the same.

And I probably don't need to tell you, dear reader, that we need this win not only to guarantee a playoff spot, but to hold off those damn Houston Rockets from overtaking us in the standings!

Ok, so let's do this. How do we do this? By now, we all know the formula for this team's success. It starts with shooting and it ends with defense. If both of those go well, we tend to win. When one or both falter, all bets are off. There's really not much more to analyze. Utah has a bunch of bigs who can score and some of whom can defend. Bogut and Ezeli will have to hold the fort down low, and Lee will need to continue showing the effort level he seems to have risen to in recent weeks on the defensive end. The Utah backcourt is weak, and this is a game made for Curry, Klay, and Jack domination.

I'll be at the game with my bro, and I can't wait. The future begins now.

Predictions

We win. That is all.

Preview/Game Thread: Warriors vs. Bucks

Evanz — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 23:27:57 -0000

Golden State Warriors (35-28) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (30-29)

Where: Oracle Arena in Oakland

When: 7:30 PST

TV: CSN Bay Area

Radio: KNBR

Blog buddy: Brew Hoop

So this should be fun. I believe tonight is the first game since "the trade" last season that Monta Ellis and Andrew Bogut will be playing against each other in person on the court at the same time. Surprisingly, the Warriors may actually need this game more than the Bucks who are somewhat comfortably in the 8th spot in the East, about 6 games ahead of the Raptors last I checked. Conversely, the Warriors have been treading through really rough waters lately, with the latest defeat coming at the hands of the Rockets who are right on their tail and the Lakers and Jazz not too far behind either.

There are a lot of intriguing matchups tonight. In fact, pretty much every positional matchup should be fun to watch. It's going to be a little bittersweet to see Ekpe Udoh go up against Festus Ezeli. I'm going to pull for Festus tonight, but Ekpe is still one of my favorite players in the league. Udoh has been surplanted in the Bucks' rotation by Larry Sanders who gained quite a bit of fame last weekend at the Sloan Conference, when Kirk Goldsberry basically made the case that Sanders is the best defender in the NBA, and that David Lee is so bad, he deserves the nickname "The Golden Gate" (because he lets everyone through, lol). I'm not sure it's that bad or that the metric was all that good (did anyone see that Bargnani was rated second behind Sanders?), but I'm super excited to see Sanders in action live.

As I'm writing this I don't know if Lee is going to be able to suit up given the painful knee contusion he suffered last night. I hope he can go, because without him, we basically have no inside scoring. Carl Landry has been great (66% TS) when he's on the floor together with Lee, but he's not nearly as good (54% TS) without Lee on the floor to take defensive pressure away from him (stats via nbawowy.com).

Keys to the game:

Make Monta a volume shooter
Make Brandon Jennings a volume shooter
Make our shots

Predictions:

Andrew Bogut will make a spectacular block on Larry Sanders
Larry Sanders will record an epic rejection on Andrew Bogut.
Ekpe Udoh will have a massive block on John Henson. Oh, wait. That doesn't make sense.
Harrison Barnes will have a mammoth dunk on Ersan Ilyasova (why not?).
There will be many blocked shots tonight.
Warriors will eke out another ugly win, 93-89.

Golden State Warriors (35-28) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (30-29)

Where: Oracle Arena in Oakland

When: 7:30 PST

TV: CSN Bay Area

Radio: KNBR

Blog buddy: Brew Hoop

Keys to the game:

Make Monta a volume shooter
Make Brandon Jennings a volume shooter
Make our shots

Predictions:

Andrew Bogut will make a spectacular block on Larry Sanders
Larry Sanders will record an epic rejection on Andrew Bogut.
Ekpe Udoh will have a massive block on John Henson. Oh, wait. That doesn't make sense.
Harrison Barnes will have a mammoth dunk on Ersan Ilyasova (why not?).
There will be many blocked shots tonight.
Warriors will eke out another ugly win, 93-89.

Recap: Warriors hold Rockets to only 1 win for third time in a row

Evanz — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 15:14:24 -0000

Wow. Not sure what just happened but it was a win. So happy how hard our guys fought.
— Daryl Morey (@dmorey) March 9, 2013

.@chandlerparsons & @asikomer carried us tonight w/key moments from @jlin7, @jharden13, & @cabezadelfino Have tie breaker on Golden State!
— Daryl Morey (@dmorey) March 9, 2013

I don't know about you guys, but that game was painful to watch. I'm not even going to try to come up with any clever metaphors to mask the pain in a brief moment of levity. It is what it is. I mean, folks, let's get real. After barely escaping with wins against the doldrums of the NBA vs Toronto and Sacramento, we lost to a Rockets team that, I'm just going to say this, is clearly better than us. They didn't even do it with James Harden, really, who had kind of an off night by his standards. No, they did it with Chandler Parsons (96% TS!), tenacious defense, and an analytics-based game strategy (all 3-s and layups) that just works with their personnel.

Both teams shot exactly 42.9% from 3-pt range, but the Rockets had 35 3-pt attempts to our 21. For those who don't remember what eFG%, that's the equivalent of over 60% FG%. An average layup is around 60%, in terms of efficiency. If you add together the 15 actual layups that the Rockets took (via my site nbawowy.com) with those 35 3-pt "virtual layups", that's 50 LAYUPS! It's amazing they didn't beat us by 30 points, to be honest. Thank an "off" James Harden for that minor blessing.

All I can say is, thank based god we wouldn't have to face the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs, although I'm increasingly becoming less concerned about making the playoffs, than I am about the general state of the team going forward. I'd say maybe we can hope for our youth to mature, but the Rockets are even younger than us and already making good on Daryl Morey's promises. Lately, all I've been thinking to myself about the Warriors is this: "Maybe Bogut will get back to 100% of his former self at some point in the near future." But that's pretty much all the hope I got. This Warriors team can certainly get hot for a night or a couple of nights in a row right now, but it's just hard to see how they can sustain a substantial winning record over a full season, unless Bogut gets back his mobility and Klay and Harrison substantially improve the next couple of seasons.

One statistical note of interest (again, from nbawowy): The Warriors were 1 of 6 shooting after timeouts last night. For the season, they shoot only 43% coming out of timeout situations (on 212 FGA). For comparison, the Spurs shoot 56% and the Thunder shoot 50%. This weakness certainly showed itself last night in the 4th quarter when Harrison Barnes took that awful long jumper coming out of the timeout. Really Harrison? Was that what was drawn up on the sideline?

And in the "because we have to" department (do we have to?), the Warriors Wonder for last night is:

Say what you want about Lee, but you can't question his toughness. Not sure it was the best idea to keep him on the court, as it almost will surely prevent him from playing tonight against the Bucks. But he definitely demonstrated his desire to win.

Let's go Warriors.

NBA Preview: 76ers at Warriors

Evanz — Fri, 28 Dec 2012 23:36:45 -0000

Who do we play tonight? 76ers

Who's gonna win tonight? Warriors

Where can I get my win on tonight? Oracle Arena in Oakland

Tip-Off: 7:30PM PST, 10:30 EST

TV: CSN Bay Area, League Pass | Radio: KNBR 680

Without Andrew Bynum Philadelphia is coming in with a 14-15 record. When I look at the 76ers I see a roster full of guys who basically can't shoot. The ever-promising Evan Turner (who will always be a #2 pick, I guess) comes in shooting 45% on 3-pt shots, but overall, his TS% is only 51%. The most efficient scorer on the roster is Thaddeus Young at 54.8% TS, and after him, it's ex-Warrior Dorell Wright at 53.3%. Jrue Holiday who is carrying a lot of the scoring load (25.9% USG is as high as Stephen Curry), is shooting a very inefficient 51.2%. Nick Young is also shooting at 51.2%.

Surprisingly, Philly's defense (106 DRTG, #17) is actually worse than it's offense (103.4 #17), although both are ranked the same. And their strength of schedule is actually one slot below us (we're #25). The only one of the four factors that Philly excels in is limiting offensive turnovers (11.9 per 100 possessions). They're second only to the Knicks. We're ranked 26th in the league in opponent turnovers, so I would expect Philly to easily win the turnover battle. But the most important of the four factors is shooting efficiency, and we are statistically ahead in that area on both sides of the ball.

So obviously we're going to win. The only thing that can stop us from winning is the fact that I'll be at Oracle tonight.

Predictions:

Klay Thompson is going to light up Evan Turner.
Stephen Curry is going to light up Jrue Holiday.
The battle between Thaddeus Young and Draymond Green is going to be epic.
Harrison Barnes will have one spectacular put-back dunk.
Warriors won't beat the spread (-6), but will win by 3 in a closely contested game.

Curry's behind-the-back-circus-shot from the Utah Jazz broadcast

Evanz — Thu, 27 Dec 2012 17:28:02 -0000

Curry's behind-the-back-circus-shot from the Utah Jazz broadcast

Nice to hear the Utah broadcasters praise Curry's game.

Recap: Warriors Bring The Heat to Miami 97-95

Evanz — Thu, 13 Dec 2012 03:56:18 -0000

Wow. Where do you even start with a game like this? A huge win. Let me get some things off my chest. There are a few Warriors that I feel a need to simultaneously praise and apologize to:

David Lee. I have been a huge detractor of yours for a few years now. I've probably said as much bad about your game as anyone. I've devised countless trades designed solely to dump your "burdensome contract". David Lee, I apologize. I don't know if you can keep this up for the next 3 seasons, but right now, you are worth your salary. More than that, you are ---> <----- close to earning my vote for the All-Star game. You've been that good. I don't know what got into you, but whatever it is, keep doing your thing.
Jarret Jack. I didn't believe in you. I thought you put up "empty" stats. I thought your "toughness" was overrated. I thought you would be exposed by getting significant minutes in important game-on-the-line situations. Jarret Jack, I apologize. You are a better point guard than I gave you credit for. You are needed on this team. Keep doing your thing.
Mark Jackson. I though we should have hired Dwane Casey. I was wrong. You have been the perfect coach for this team. I can see now that your toughness and effort has rubbed off on this team. You were not the most talented player, but you made the most of your talent. This team is doing the same thing. I don't know how the transformation happened this quick. Maybe it was that visit you had with Jim Harbaugh last season. I don't know. Regardless, Mark Jackson, I apologize. Keep doing your thing.

Ok, with that piece of business out of the way, let's get back to the game. What a friggin game that was. Close from the beginning, not just in terms of the score, but in terms of rebounding (40-38 GSW), assists (20-18 GSW), fouls (13-14 MIA), 3-pt attempts (23-22 GSW), and free throw attempts (15-14 MIA).

Miami basically decided to take Curry out of the game, and they pretty much succeeded in doing just that, limiting Curry to 9 points on 10 shots, ending his whatever games in a row streak of 20+ points. But in a way, that's what makes this game even more meaningful and makes me more hopeful about the team going forward. What we learned tonight is that you absolutely have to do more to beat us than take out Curry. You have to worry about Lee. You have to worry about Klay. You have to worry about...Jarret Jack? Carl Landry? Harrison Barnes?

And oh yes. You have to worry about Draymond Green. That dude is a straight up basketball player. He out-Shane Battiered Shane Battier. Harrison Barnes may have a higher ceiling (however you define that), but Draymond Green is the real deal right now. He's earning these minutes. He's earned Mark Jackson's trust. That much is obvious. It's a guy like Draymond Green that makes watching basketball such a joy. And like a Ekpe Udoh before him, Draymond makes the case for looking past the box score (whether it's with your eyes or more advanced stats). In many ways, Draymond Green the player is a microcosm of the Golden State Warriors basketball team this year. It's a balance of talent and just sheer will and determination to win games. It's all about winning.

Frankly, it's shocking. But in an awesomely fantastic eye-opening child-like optimistic sort of way. I remember last year when Harbaugh took over and the Niners started winning games. At first you kind of shrugged it off, and figured, eh, this can't last. But then the wins kept coming..and coming. And soon, you couldn't deny what was right there in front of you. The Niners had become a winning team. I feel that same sort of cautious-optimism-turning-into-real-confidence starting to build up in my chest. Like...you know...this team might just actually be a good team.

No need to apologize. No need to second guess. Hell, no need to even talk about "What if Bogut comes back" scenarios. If Bogut comes back, he comes back. But this team may just be good. Period. Right now. Good enough to earn a playoff spot? Yeah, I'm ready to go there. 22 games into the season, with a 15-7 record, winners of 5 in a row on the road...Earning a playoff spot seems perfectly reasonable right now. Perfectly reasonable.

How huge is that? One game at a time and all that.

Ok, time to hand out the Warriors Wonder.

Warriors Wonder - Mark Jackson

I'm not talking about matchups. Whatever strings he's pulling, it's working. That last play of the game could have just gone into Lee for an iso. Or he could have given the ball to Curry at the top of the key to make something happen. Instead, he had Curry and Klay coming off curls as primary options, Lee and Green as secondary options, and gave Jack the ball at the top to make the play. Yes, Jack and Green made that play work. It was spectacular. But last year's Mark Jackson would have given the ball to Monta Ellis and settled for an inefficient isolation jumper. This year's Mark Jackson trusts his players to make the right plays. The fact that Jackson eschewed "hero ball" and ran a play to get the best shot, that was just huge. As I said earlier, I have lot more confidence in Coach Jackson.

And hey, it doesn't hurt that Greg Anthony thinks he's Coach of the Year right now.

RealGM interviews Charles Jenkins

Evanz — Sun, 09 Dec 2012 19:43:08 -0000

RealGM interviews Charles Jenkins

Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves preview: Love is coming back to the Oracle

Evanz — Sat, 24 Nov 2012 18:07:22 -0000

Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Tip-off: 7:30 PM PST

Where: Oracle Arena

TV: CSN Bay Area Radio: KNBR 680

Blog Buddy: Canis Hoopus

Golden State Warriors Tickets

After a tough loss last night against the Denver Nuggets on the road (tough because we got spanked, not because it was nail-biter), the Warriors will try to get back to their (nascent) winning ways tonight at Oracle against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Warriors played the T-Wolves recently (just last week actually) and won in Minnesota with a balanced offensive attack from Harrison Barnes, David Lee, and Stephen Curry, each having scored 18 points. But that game was notable for the absence of Minnesota's (arguably) three best players in Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, and Nikola Pekovic.

The big deal tonight is that Kevin Love has come back early from the injury to his hand, although he says he's not yet close to 100%. Unfortunately, even a not-close-to-100%-healthy Kevin Love is proving to be quite a load against opposing teams. In his first game back he racked up 34/14 (with 14 FTA!) against Denver (in a loss) and 24/13 (with 16 FTA!) in his second game against Portland (also a loss). I'm hoping the losing trend continues, of course.

Thanks to bigkino for pointing out that Pekovic has also been back for the last two games. That makes this game even tougher obviously. Ezeli and Biedrins are obviously going to have to come up big.

On a personal note, I'll be at the game tonight with my bro. What's interesting about that for me is that the only game I went to last season was the night that the circus came to town. That was also the T-Wolves. An eventful night, but not what I would call a "fun" night. I hope this one turns out better for the fans, the team, and for Joe Lacob.

Things to look for:

The foul situation. Looking at those FTA numbers for Love the last couple of games, I have a bad feeling about this. The Warriors defense appears to have improved greatly from last season (and hell, pretty much any season you want to name in the past few decades). But there are some games where we just get into way too much foul trouble, like last night, for instance. If our main scoring threats can stay out of foul trouble, that will be a key to having a chance to win this game.
Rebounding. Kevin Love is obviously the league's pre-eminent rebounder. But the Warriors are notably improved in that department. In fact, somewhat surprisingly, they out-rebounded the Nuggets last night. Festus Ezeli had a career high 10 rebounds and he will be a key to cleaning the glass with Pekovic still out. Biedrins will probably also be counted on for 10 minutes or so of glass work and defense.
Look for Stephen Curry and Harrison Barnes to bounce back from bad games last night. Actually, Barnes has had a couple of stinkers in a row. We need these two to score efficiently, play tough defense, and stay out of foul trouble.
It's the start of a 4-game homestand. Oracle is gonna be rockin'. Tonight's game is the kind of game that the Warriors simply have to win if they're going to compete for a playoff spot. Remember this T-Wolves squad still doesn't have Rubio ~~or Pekovic~~ (as bigkino pointed out in the comments, Pekovic came back 2 games ago). If we can't beat them now at home, that's a troubling sign.
Derrick Williams has basically become a persona non grata in Minnesota. The other night he received a DNP, because Adelman thinks that Lou Amundson and Dante Cunningham give a more "veteran presence". It will be interesting to see if Williams gets any p.t. at all tonight.

Prediction #1 - Warriors by 5

Prediction #2 - I will once again get pissed off at the $12 beer at Oracle

Short Rant on Evaluating Decision-Making, Execution, and Talent

Evanz — Tue, 13 Nov 2012 15:57:02 -0000

On Saturday night, Golden State lost a "heartbreaker" to the Denver Nuggets in double OT (in quotes because this isn't, after all, the 7th game of the NBA Finals, just the 7th game of the regular season). Since the game ended, the Warriors' second-year starting SG Klay Thompson has been impaled with criticism. Some of the criticism is fair in my opinion, but some of it is unfair, and some of it may even be misplaced.

The title of this post distinguishes three facets on which we can judge players, namely decision-making, execution, and talent. Of course, in some sense, say in the long-term, these player qualities are all somewhat related. In the short term, however, and especially for younger players, I feel that we should be careful about specifying which one(s) we are actually concerned about. Each concept taken on its own would seem almost trivially obvious, but the three combined are often hazily and haphazardly merged in the form of "hating" on a player after a tough loss when logic tends to get thrown out the window. To understand why I say this, allow me to briefly describe each one and put it in the context of Klay's game on Saturday.

Decision-Making

Good players tend to make good decisions on the basketball court. Bad players tend to make bad decisions. All players...ALL PLAYERS...sometimes make mistakes. Klay Thompson made a big mistake when he let Gallo drive past him all the way to the hoop on Saturday night, and there can be no doubt because he admitted it:

Yeah … I’m not sure what you mean by that … I think I just forgot. I’m going to learn from it. I forgot we had a foul to give so I’ve got to be more aware in that situation and I will be next time."

Of course, there are several questions here for the discerning fan. Did Thompson really just "forget" to foul Gallo, or was he really just unaware of the game strategy in that situation? Did the coaching staff make it clear to the players (either during a timeout or at some point during a practice session) that they should be looking to give a foul in that situation? If so, it's fair to criticize Klay for poor decision-making, but consider also that everyone makes mistakes. I'm not sure if pressure situations necessarily cause people to make more mistakes, but it wouldn't surprise me if the "mistake variance" increases, meaning that people might tend to make fewer or more mistakes in pressure situations depending on their nature. That's just conjecture though. What's important here is to note that Klay apparently made a poor decision at a time that made it really obvious that it was a bad decision. But don't you think if we dissected the entirety of this game or any game for that matter, we might find other players who made or make poor decisions, albeit with lesser, or at least, less dramatic consequences? ALL PLAYERS...sometimes make mistakes, including Klay Thompson.

Execution

ANDRIS BIRDREAMS MADE TOO FREE THROWZ...HEZ BETER THAN KLAY TOMSON!

-nobody

Klay Thompson missed two free throws with 13 seconds left in the first OT. If he does that with 13 seconds left in the first quarter, nobody remembers. It's an anomaly. I'm not going to look up whether Klay Thompson misses two free throws with regularity, because it's obvious that a career 85% FT shooter doesn't. Here's a rule of thumb I live by:

Never blame good foul shooters for missing free throws.

This is just poor execution, like a QB missing an easy throw, or a return man flubbing the catch on a punt. It's like a catcher overthrowing second base, or a batter failing to lay down a bunt. It's like Bill Buckner letting a baseball go through his legs in the World Series. When you have hundreds or thousands of opportunities for some thing to happen, the fact of the matter is that sometimes, one of those things is going to happen. Klay Thompson has 110 FTA in his career thus far, and he missed two in a row. File this under you know what happens.

Talent

At some point in every player's career he has made enough decisions and executed enough plays that he can be judged accordingly by his true talent. And if you're LeBron James, the most talented basketball player on the planet, people still give you crap about decision-making once in a while. ("Why didn't Superman fly even faster around Earth that one time?") Klay Thompson seems to be a talented player, but not all the evidence is in yet. Maybe what happened on Saturday with his decision-making and Monta-esque volume shooting are signs that he is not as talented as was believed. It's too early to tell, and certainly, the case can't be made from one single game, no matter how poorly played. When Stephen Curry goes 1-for-whatever, we collectively shrug it off, because we *know* Curry is a talented shooter.

Klay went 5-15 on 3-pt attempts on Saturday, and I've heard a lot of grumbling about how he took too many 3-pt shots. I'd like to say a couple of things about this. First, from everything I've heard out of Mark Jackson's mouth, Klay (and Curry) have the green light to shoot. If this team is going to win, it's probably going to involve those guys shooting a lot and at a high rate of efficiency. We simply don't have that many other options, especially after losing Brandon Rush and with Bogut out indefinitely (7-10 days my ass). Klay's shot selection may be questionable at times, and I hope the coaching staff and Klay are working on that aspect. But make no mistake, there are going to be games when we need Klay's shooting. If he is stifled or made to fear his own shot at this stage of his career, that may be a weapon we can't live without.

Here's another thing about Klay's 26 field goal attempts. He went 5-15 on 3's, which means he made only 4 of 11 2-pt attempts. If anything, he should have take less 2's, right? The 33% he hit on 3's is equivalent to 50% on 2-pt shots. As a team, we shot 45% TS that night.

Conclusion

This turned out to be a longer short rant than I intended, but I hope I made myself somewhat clear, and I think the discussion is worth having. I'm not saying it's always easy to distinguish the differences between decision-making, execution, and talent, but what I am saying is that before one decides to eviscerate a player for a bad night, one should make some kind of effort to think about these notions (and there is room for disagreement). Every player is going to have a bad night, and those nights are probably going to be somewhat proportional to the level of talent. In the long run, the results *are* the talent, right? My philosophy is generally to support the team and the player until I've seen enough to decide that my support is not warranted any longer. Regarding this particular iteration of the Warriors and starting SG Klay Thompson, I simply don't have enough information yet to revoke my support. Your mileage may vary.

Postgame Recap: Warriors Beat Suns 87-85 on Opening Night

Evanz — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 07:52:08 -0000

Final - 10.31.2012	1	2	3	4	Total
Golden State Warriors	25	23	17	22	87
Phoenix Suns	21	21	25	18	85

Complete Coverage >

Well, that was an interesting game, to top an interesting day. The good news is we leave Phoenix with a win. The really good news is that Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut were able to play significant minutes on Opening Night. The bad news is that Stephen Curry and David Lee sucked on ice, in terms of shooting tonight. I don't expect too many nights like this from those two, or at least, not too many concurrently bad nights like this. So I'm not really concerned about that right now. Too many positives today to focus on a couple of bad shooting performances on day one of the season. This could have been a righteous blowout if Curry and Lee had even an average shooting performance. And if Bogut was able to get more minutes in the second half down the stretch. That will come in time. Maybe sooner than most of us had expected.

It looked like the Warriors were going to run away with the game in the second quarter when the second unit came in, but Phoenix kept coming back, and eventually took the lead. Fortunately, lead mostly by Carl Landry in the fourth quarter, the Warriors were able to cut into that lead and claim the close victory in the last couple of minutes.

Aside from Landry, Brandon Rush was really effective in the second quarter. Actually, all three small forwards (Rush, Jefferson, Barnes) had decent games tonight. Jefferson came up with some good defensive plays that lead to fast break opportunities, and Barnes continues to impress with his restraint. I know that sounds like a backhanded compliment, but considering one of the biggest concerns surrounding him was going to be whether he would jack up poor shots, so far as a professional, he's been...well...professional. He seems to know his place on this team, and it looks like being a member of the starting lineup is helping that process along. At some point, we might start expecting him to be more agressive (because he shows flashes), but for now, I like what I'm seeing out of him.

And what can you say about Andrew Bogut? It's just going to be fun to watch him this year. It's not just his defense. It's his all around knowledge of the game, his court vision and awareness, and even his little lefty hook shot looked pretty smooth tonight. Can't wait to see more out of him.

The West is going to be brutal. Look at Portland clobbering the Lakers (and Dallas without Dirk clobbering the Lakers), and New Orleans hanging tough with San Antonio. Probably no easy nights in the West. The Warriors are going to have to bring it against the tougher teams. That will start Friday against Memphis, which will also be the first of 3 games in 4 nights. I'm sure you all are looking forward to this season as much as I am.

Opening Night Warriors vs. Suns: Second Half Game Thread

Evanz — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 03:20:25 -0000

0:00 remaining in the 2nd	1	2	3	4	Total
Golden State Warriors	25	23			48
Phoenix Suns	21	21			42

Join the Game Thread

Breaking Story: Stephen Curry extends for 4/$44M

Evanz — Wed, 31 Oct 2012 16:00:45 -0000

So kind of a big deal this morning:

SOURCE: Warriors and PG Stephen Curry reached an agreement on a contract extension. Deal is for four years and... sulia.com/my_thoughts/55…
— Marcus Thompson (@gswscribe) October 31, 2012

#Dubs Gameday baby. And thanks to Joe Lacob & the Warriors hopefully I can say that for the next 4 yrs. agreed on extension
— Stephen Curry (@StephenCurry30) October 31, 2012

For a discounted rate ($11 million a year) Curry gets security and to stay with the Warriors. No incentives, bonuses bit.ly/W6T3hp
— Marcus Thompson (@gswscribe) October 31, 2012

"My ankle was a big factor with the number. They had to protect themselves a little bit," said @stephencurry30 to Y! Sports.
— Marc J. Spears (@SpearsNBAYahoo) October 31, 2012

What do you all think? We'll keep updating this article as more information becomes available.

Warriors 2012-2013 Preview

Evanz — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 17:45:41 -0000

SBNation is doing a series of pre-season video predictions with its bloggers. I had the honor of doing ours. Make sure to check out the others, too. In this preview I discuss the following topics:

How many wins?
Where do I think we'll finish in the West and who we'll be fighting with?
Which players I think are the "X-factors" for the Warriors?
Who will be the team MVP?
Will Charles Barkley make fun of us?
What is the biggest concern other than health?
Who will win the West
Who will win the Finals?

The views expressed in this video are not necessarily reflective of any other writers affiliated with Golden State of Mind. Although I'm sure everyone agrees with me on everything I said. ;)

Rush or Barnes? Barnes or Rush? Should we even care?

Evanz — Fri, 19 Oct 2012 15:20:39 -0000

It seems pretty clear the battle for the starting SF position is between Harrison Barnes and Brandon Rush. That part alone is good news, because if you had asked me a few months ago, I wouldn't have thought Barnes surpassing Richard Jefferson was a realistic possibility this early in his career. I'll take that as a sign of Barnes' talent, rather than a sign that Richard Jefferson has suddenly gone from a regular starter in the Spurs' rotation to a complete scrub (although you and I know this kind of thing happens occasionally, and I bet some of us could even name some names, but I digress...).

So like any important decision, it's a good idea to list pros and cons for each side of the argument. Since this is my article, I guess I'll have to do the arguing with myself for now, and wait for you guys to read this and chime in with your own opinions toot sweet.

The Case for Rush

While there is definitely debate about who will be the better player in the long-term, I think that few among us would claim that Barnes is the better (i.e. more productive) player right now. As of October 19, 2012, Rush appears to be a better (more efficient) scorer, a stronger defender, and a better rebounder. We also know that he is not only capable of playing within a team concept, but that it seems his natural inclination. There is absolutely no doubt that Rush is a great unselfish teammate and is not looking for his own shot, but rather, takes good shots that are available to him. This is one of his greatest strengths. On the other hand, the concerns some of us have about Barnes is that he might tend toward the selfish end of the spectrum, at least, when it comes to the offensive end of the floor. Admittedly, however, he has looked more restrained in his approach to the game than I was expecting. So I am somewhat less concerned about this point than I was, say, on Draft Night.

Nevertheless, we know what kind of teammate Rush is and how he would fit in with the starting unit. Aside from Bogut, Rush would clearly be the second best defender on the starting unit (although heck, maybe one could make that case for Barnes, which doesn't say much about the other three guys). Aside from the additional defensive toughness that Rush brings, he is arguably one of the few players on the team that can drive to the basket with some regularity. He's clearly a better ball-handler right now than Barnes, and that's important, because from what we've seen in the pre-season, maintaining ball control is an issue of some concern (perhaps, not great concern, but some).

One other point that I would make in Rush's favor, and this is thinking more about psychology, is that making him the starter this season might be the good will necessary to convince him to sign a long-term deal in the off-season. I really do like Rush, and I see him as someone who could stick around for several seasons, and be part of a winning team. In all likelihood, Barnes will eventually become the starter (and let's hope that he does, because that would mean he's pretty good), and I think Rush probably knows that on a really good team, he's probably going to come off the bench anyway, and that he'd be ok with that in the future. But since he made it clear that he wants to compete for the starting job this season (probably because he thinks he's better than Barnes right now, too), it might hurt his ego if he loses this battle. Of course, the right thing to do here is what is best for the team, not what is best for any individual player. But I guess what I'm saying is that, all else being equal, if making Rush the starter helps the team and helps convince him to stay here for the long run, it's something to consider.

The Case for Barnes

The case I would make for Barnes actually has less to do with Barnes strengths than it does thinking about what will work best for the team. As stated above, one of my concerns with Barnes coming off the bench is that he'll feel that he has a responsibility to be "the scorer". That is the last thing I want in terms of his development as a player. Conversely, I feel that Barnes would have to learn how to play the "right way" as a member of the starting unit, because he would be surrounded by several players that are clearly a step or two or three above him right now in terms of offensive production. Of course, one could turn this right around and argue, well, if Barnes isn't in the starting unit because of his offense, and it isn't because of his defense, then maybe he shouldn't be starting, eh? And I can't really disagree with that argument. (I'm a terrible self-debater.)

Ok, but let me make one more point that I think has some legitimacy, but might also be the most controversial one so far. If Rush does start, I think there is a real issue about the substitution patterns. I know people like to talk about how "a wing is a wing is a wing", but Barnes and Richard Jefferson cannot handle the ball, so you have to start thinking about that second unit. I think Jack is going to be the primary backup for Steph, but who comes in for Klay? Somebody else needs to be able to handle the ball, and that somebody is probably not Barnes or Jefferson. Conversely, if Rush comes off the bench, I could see a really cohesive second unit of Jack/Rush/(Jefferson or Green)/Landry/Ezeli being very productive. Most teams don't bring in a whole unit like that off the bench, but it can work (see Chicago for the last couple of seasons). In particular, I think this team with its depth is set up for a rotation like this.

Now maybe the answer is that you start Rush, and he's the first one that comes out, gets a breather, then comes in for Klay at the 2. Maybe it's as simple as that.

So what do you guys think? I've laid out the issues that I've been thinking about, and to be honest, I could still be convinced either way. This really is a toss-up, as far as I'm concerned. It's one of the more interesting positional battles I can remember, but it's also a good thing. It's not like we're debating between a bad player and a really bad player, right? (Which we've done plenty of over the past few decades as Warriors fans.)

Poll

Who should be the starting SF?

Harrison Barnes - because he's better

68 votes

Brandon Rush - because he's better

112 votes

Harrison Barnes - it's complicated

155 votes

Brandon Rush - it's complicated

71 votes

It doesn't really matter which one

46 votes

452 votes | Poll has closed

David Lee: "We don't have to play Don Nelson 'trickery' basketball"

Evanz — Tue, 16 Oct 2012 18:16:31 -0000

Interesting interview of David Lee over at the CBS Sports Eye on Basketball blog. Some nuggets:

On Isaiah Thomas:

My biggest thing is that he's the one who drafted me. He was the one who gave me a chance to play, both as a general manager as a coach. I got to play big minutes. So I'll always be loyal to him.

On moving on from last season's losing ways:

This year, we have a chance to be one of the better Warriors teams in recent memory. We still have a lot of work to do, but you just hang tight for days like this.

On his numbers:

I wouldn't be surprised this year if my numbers go down a little bit just because there's more balance on our team. I don't think me scoring 22 points a game, 25 points a game, shooting all the shots is necessarily going to translate into us being a playoff team. I welcome the fact that whatever my numbers end up being, that we can get a whole lot more wins on the board.

On playing with Andrew Bogut:

You mentioned it with spacing; that's something we're both going to have to get used to. I think the most exciting part is you have two big men now, who can use both hands, who love to pass the ball and can play at the high post and low post. You see it a little bit with guys like Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, in a duo that can both pass the ball and are effective at both the high post and the low post. That creates a lot of matchup problems for other teams. It gives us a lot of versatility with what we can run.

On the possibility of being an All-Star (btw, you can go see what Trailblazer fans think of this):

I think all the individual stuff will come. If you look at my numbers around All-Star [time] last year and all the stuff we were doing. LaMarcus Aldridge makes the All-Star team, and I don't. I think if Portland and Golden State's records are reversed, I make the All-Star team. And he's a great player; I'm not talking bad about him at all. But I think all the All-Star appearances, all the respect you want to get, that comes with being on a winning team.

On not playing small-ball:

I think this year, not only with the depth we have, but the size we have, we don't have to play Don Nelson "trickery" basketball, where you have a point guard guarding a center and try and trick people and score a lot of points. We can actually play standard basketball where we can face teams head-on. That's going to be a welcome sight.

On Mark Jackson's expectations:

Coach said in a meeting the other day, "Last year, I had you guys do some things where even if you did them right, there were certain games we were still going to lose. But this year, if we lose, it's because we're not doing things right, because we have the talent and the numbers now, we're going to win games."

What are the odds: Vegas sets lines on individual NBA awards

Evanz — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 20:27:17 -0000

The other day I posted the Vegas O/U odds on win totals. Bovada has also published its odds on the individual player awards. Let's see if any Warriors are in the mix.

Most Valuable Player

Jesus, Derrick Rose has 50:1 odds and he's out for the season? McKayla is not impressed. Durant seems like the best bet here, given the potential return. Oh, and if you look at the full list, you'll see David Lee at 100:1. You know who else is 100:1 odds? Jeremy Freakin' Lin. Not kidding. Lin comes in ahead of Josh Smith, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Andre Iguodala. Other Warriors: Stephen Curry (200:1), Andrew Bogut (350:1). Possibly even more inexplicable than Jeremy Lin at 100: 1 is Baron Davis at 250:1.

LeBron James 7:4
Kevin Durant 15:4
Kobe Bryant 12:1
Russell Westbrook 16:1
Dwight Howard 16:1
Steve Nash 16:1
Deron Williams 20:1
Dwyane Wade 22:1
Blake Griffin 25:1
Chris Paul 25:1
Kevin Love 25:1
Carmelo Anthony 25:1
Tony Parker 25:1
Rajon Rondo 28:1
Dirk Nowitzki 30:1
Andrew Bynum 40:1
Chris Bosh 50:1
Derrick Rose 50:1
Danny Granger 60:1
Kyrie Irving 60:1

Rookie of the Year

No surprises here really. There's Barnes at 6.

Anthony Davis 19:10
Damian Lillard 11:2
MKG 9:1
Thomas Robinson 19:2
Bradley Beal 10:1
Harrison Barnes 12:1
Jonas Valanciunas 12:1
Dion Waiters 15:1
John Henson 25:1
Kendall Marshall 25:1
Marquis Teague 25:1
Royce White 25:1

Vegas No Likey Our Warriors

Evanz — Thu, 04 Oct 2012 14:56:24 -0000

34.5 wins? 11th in the West? For your own and our collective fan psyche, it might be better to take this with a grain of salt, but the opening Vegas O/U win predictions for the Warriors are pretty grim. I got these from SportsBook, and they're similar to numbers I've seen in a few other places the last couple of days. Vegas is usually pretty good at this kind of stuff. The question is whether the negativity from Vegas is due to their expectation that we will be beset by injuries or simply be a bad team, even if healthy.

These guns, JB? All me. No juice here.

Evanz — Wed, 03 Oct 2012 04:53:21 -0000

These guns, JB? All me. No juice here.

What I Learned at the Sports Analytics Innovation Summit

Evanz — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 02:43:48 -0000

I had the opportunity to attend the Sports Analytics Innovation Summit (SAIS) at the Marriott Union Square in San Francisco, and want to share a little bit about what I learned over the course of the two days. About half the talks focused on the business of sports, while the other half dealt with analytics used in the sports themselves, from Olympic training to what helps NBA teams win in the playoffs. Following the jump is a list of the key takeaway points I gleaned from SAIS.

You may have figured this out already, but sports are a huge and growing business these days. The representative of SAP, one of the sponsors of the conference, mentioned that his company is making a big push into the space. Alex Sugarman, VP of Strategy & Development for the Chicago Cubs, presented some slides on the market size of professional sports. I believe the figure was around $70B (that's a "B" for billion).
Many of the talks focused on ticket pricing, especially dynamic ticket pricing. It seems that the secondary market (i.e. sites like StubHub) has forced teams to re-think and improve their pricing strategies. Nothing drove this point home to me more than the fact that the Cleveland Cavaliers hired a lady named Sezin Aksoy (who gave a talk), who previously worked for the airlines industry, to improve their pricing model. She told us that some of the same things we hate about the airline industry (such as overselling seats) would also make their way into sports ticketing. John Abbamondi from the San Diego Padres mentioned that they wanted to "train" their fans to buy tickets early before prices would go up during the season.
Analytics plays a huge role in Olympic-level training. It's to the point where if a young skier in some small town in Colorado starts to post increasingly good times, an e-mail will be automatically sent to Troy Flanagan, the High Performance Director of the US Ski and Snowboard Association (who, by the way, was formerly an aerospace engineer) who gave a talk about the training those elite athletes receive nowadays. It's really incredible stuff.
Roland Beech, Director of Basketball Analytics for the Dallas Mavericks, gave a talk that mostly focused on using Synergy statistics to predict playoff success in the NBA. His talk reminded me the most of my own analytics experience, although he was most likely holding back on most of the interesting things he has actually done. That brings me to the next theme...
Secrecy. In many ways, SAIS was like the cute girl that flirts with you, but has no intention of letting you get anywhere with her. Teams have so much access to data and analytics, and are probably doing a ton of awesome stuff behind closed doors, but they absolutely have to treat those advances like trade secrets. So much so, that one of the speakers at the meeting was actually a lawyer whose talk focused on keeping trade secrets in baseball! Throughout the meeting, speakers would give us a taste of what they're doing, but then follow with, "I probably shouldn't say too much more about this." Argh!
Kirk Lacob spoke about some of the analytics that the Warriors are doing, including use of the SportsVU player tracking data. In fact, they have contracted with a company that is taking the raw player tracking data and automating the process of translating it to Synergy-like play categories. And who knows what else, Kirk couldn't divulge much more. What was very clear from his talk, and should comfort you as a Warriors fan, is that the front office is seriously committed to doing everything it takes to win. Kirk specifically said they are not in this to make money. The goal is to win. Unfortunately, Kirk bolted from the conference immediately after his talk, so I didn't get a chance to catch up with him. (Not that he could've told me much more, of course.)
Ben Alamar, Director of Analytics & Research for the Oklahoma City Thunder, talked about innovation in analytics. I was expecting him to talk about new stats, but what he focused on was even more intriguing. Basically, Alamar has developed tools to test a player's decision-making ability. The example he showed was a picture clearly depicting a 3-on-1 fastbreak opportunity, with three of the offensive players labeled A, B, and C. The player taking the "test" (which is more like a game to them) would have to decide within 5 second of seeing a very short video clip which of the three players scored on the play. It wasn't clear yet how much the test correlated with winning, but Alamar did tell us that so far, the players who have taken the test have performed much, much better than, say, the folks working in the front office who have taken the same tests (think of them as the "controls" in this case). Unfortunately, OKC is not allowed to bring the test to the draft combine yet. They can only test players at the Portsmouth Invitational, in addition to members of the Thunder. It wouldn't surprise me, however, if other teams around the league are starting to go down this road, if they haven't already.
Kirk Goldsberry, a Visiting Scholar at Harvard, discussed more of his visualization work involving the SportVU player tracking data. Much of what he presented was the same data from the MIT Sloan Analytics conference in March, but he did show some new passing data. What was novel about this set of data was that it showed the trajectory of the pass, from beginning to end. Needless to say, a lot more can be done with those kinds of data than just drawing them on a plot. Unfortunately for us "regular" fans who don't have access to the data (yet), we'll just have to wait for Kirk to crunch the numbers himself and let us know what he finds.
Steven Angel, Senior VP at the NBA league office, actually gave a very interesting look into how the league deals with issues like making rule changes and refereeing the refs. They do a lot more than I ever thought. For example, the league actually did a study to try to determine how much particular refs affect the outcome of games. If I understood correctly, they basically created a set of game predictions using Vegas spreads (sound familiar?), and then regressed those onto the refs, which were treated as independent variables. Think of it as an adjusted +/- for refs. Very cool stuff. Also, someone asked Angel about what the league intended to do about flopping. Basically, he said they didn't want to put that responsibility on the refs. Instead, it will probably be dealt with through fines.
Elaine Allen, Professor of Statistics, and Julia Seaman, a graduate student, both at UCSF, gave a talk about the baseball DL. The most interesting stat I learned was that in the last 10 years no team that put a player on the DL in the month of September has gone on to win the World Series. Apparently, if this trend holds up, that would eliminate the Yankees and the A's. We'll see.
Brian Hampton, Director of Football Administration for the 49ers, gave a talk about game strategy. One of the things I learned that surprised me is the anti-technology rule that the NFL implements. You know all those cards that you see Jim Harbaugh covering his face with during the game? They need those cards, because laptops and computers are not allowed to be used in the game, by anyone. As a funny aside, Hampton mentioned that he once saw Ken Whisenhunt holding a card that he had constructed for the 49ers! Although Brian couldn't share much in the way of analytics details, he was able to share with us the "kneel zone" table, because they were fairly certain that by now most of the league, if not all 30 teams, had pretty much the same table. For a given down and remaining number of timeouts (say 2nd down and 1 timeout left), the kneel zone table gives you a clock time that you are safe having the QB kneel.

I had a good time at the meeting. Maybe one of these days I'll be up there presenting my own stuff and telling people I probably shouldn't say any more about this. ;)

Stephen Curry Cleared to Play Pickup

Evanz — Thu, 20 Sep 2012 00:58:24 -0000

Check it out folks:

StephenCurry30
Finally got the go ahead to play some pickup with the squad today. Felt good to get back.
9/19/12 4:15 PM

In other SC30 news, Curry was ranked #40 (highest among all Warriors and only a drop of 2 spots since last season) in ESPN's ongoing #NBArank series. Curry was ranked 9th among PG's overall, and 5th among PG's in the WC. This clearly shows Curry is still highly esteemed, at least, in the "media" (in all its various forms).

How excited are you?

Dear SF 49ers, Please stop sucking. Thnx. Your pal, Jason 6:21 PM - 15 Oct 06

Evanz — Wed, 19 Sep 2012 05:00:49 -0000

Dear SF 49ers, Please stop sucking. Thnx. Your pal, Jason

6:21 PM - 15 Oct 06

It took a while, but @shellen finally got his wish.

I'm bumping Kobe for this.

Evanz — Sat, 15 Sep 2012 03:49:51 -0000

I'm bumping Kobe for this.

GSoM Debate: Is Kobe Bryant the "Player of the Century"?

Evanz — Fri, 14 Sep 2012 15:13:41 -0000

According to Dime Magazine, Kobe Bryant is the "Player of the Century" (i.e. best player since Y2K). Normally, I'd just write a snippy comment on their website and be done with it. But it's slow times around here, and I thought to myself, why not let's have a debate on this subject? Choose your pick among the (numerous) poll choices (I won't bias you with my preference, which may or may not be Kobe). The players listed in the poll either won an MVP award or made All-NBA first team at least twice since 2000. Have fun!

Poll

Who is the "Player of the Century"? (Players listed in alphabetical order.)

Kobe Bryant

543 votes

Tim Duncan

207 votes

Kevin Durant

14 votes

Kevin Garnett

21 votes

Dwight Howard

0 votes

Allen Iverson

33 votes

LeBron James

316 votes

Jason Kidd

5 votes

Tracy McGrady

12 votes

Steve Nash

16 votes

Dirk Nowitzki

9 votes

Chris Paul

1 votes

Derrick Rose

6 votes

Dwyane Wade

2 votes

Shaquille O'Neal

157 votes

1342 votes | Poll has closed

2012 NBA Player Rankings -- Golden State Warriors - ESPN

Evanz — Wed, 12 Sep 2012 19:23:59 -0000

2012 NBA Player Rankings -- Golden State Warriors - ESPN

ESPN #NBArank for Warriors.

NBA 3 on 3 Tournament Round One -- Los Angeles Lakers Vs. Golden State Warriors - SBNation.com

Evanz — Mon, 10 Sep 2012 20:33:35 -0000

NBA 3 on 3 Tournament Round One -- Los Angeles Lakers Vs. Golden State Warriors - SBNation.com

Well, it was worth a shot.

Why you should be excited and nervous to be a Brooklyn Nets fan in 2012-13

Evanz — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 20:33:09 -0000

I'm endeavoring to do a post for all 30 teams before the season starts on why if I were a fan of that team, I'd be excited and nervous. I'll talk about the great, the good, the bad, and oftentimes, the really ugly.

No sweep 'til Brooklynnnnn.

First off, sweet logo. Sweet new faux-weatherized steel arena. Even if the Nets remained terrible, fans will have a lot to be excited about in Brooklyn. The good news is the Nets probably won't be terrible. They'll almost surely be quite a bit better than they've been most of the past decade.

The real question is whether "better" will translate as "from bad to mediocre" or "from bad to a contender". Let's take stock of the pieces that have been assembled in Brooklyn. First and foremost, Deron Williams re-signed through 2016. DWill is obviously one of the league's top point guards even at $17M. (And who are we kidding, money is like toilet paper to Prokhorov). Statistically, Williams has not been nearly as efficient in terms of scoring since he left Utah (falling from 58.7% TS in 2011 to 52.7% in 2012), but much of that can probably be explained by his incredibly high usage. It was 30.1% last season, compared to his career 24% average. With the addition of Joe Johnson and a healthy Brook Lopez returning, Williams will not have to shoulder anywhere near that volume of scoring responsibility. His assist totals also dropped, but that is not surprising given the overall lack of talent surrounding him. I really don't have much question about DWill's offensive ability or productivity going forward. And I also don't question his defensive ability. He doesn't seem to have much. But that's a known quantity. Fortunately, this is another area where having Joe Johnson as a backcourt partner and Gerald Wallace at SF should alleviate some of the concern about Brooklyn's perimeter defense.

I already mentioned Joe Johnson, so let's get into it some more. Here's the thing about J.J. Expensive as hell contract, but like I said, cash might as well be toilet paper as far as Prokhorov is concerned. But aside from the expensive contract, Joe Johnson is a good basketball player. Not great, but definitely above average. His RAPM rating is +1.5, which makes him one of the top 5 or so shooting guards in the East. Johnson is an above-average scorer, and by that, I mean somewhat below average shooting efficiency that is made up for by quite a bit above average usage. He should get plenty of good looks playing with DWill, hopefully, more of them being of the 3-pt variety. I would be most concerned that it will be tough for J.J. to break the habit of taking tons of long 2's.

Quick aside...Did you know the CDC was located in Atlanta specifically to deal with the epidemic of long 2's that has plagued the town for so many years? And you thought they had zombie problems!

At small forward, the Nets brought back Gerald Wallace (at $10M per) through 2016. Gerald Wallace should now be able to focus on the role of being a defensive stopper. His defensive RAPM is +2.9, an extremely high rating for a small forward (for comparison, LeBron's is +1.8). Wallace is obviously known for his defense, but he's not a total zero on offense. His career 55.4% TS on 20.6% USG is very respectable. Wallace is also a very good rebounder, and with Brook Lopez getting major minutes at the 5, the Nets will need that skill, especially on the defensive glass. Moving to the front court, I begin to lose some confidence in this team.

The tandem of ~~Kim Kardashian's ex-husband or the guy who looks like a giant version of that douche who was always taking his shirt off in Twilight~~ Kris Humphries and Brook Lopez does not instill fear in my heart. Humphries is basically a one-dimensional rebounder and Lopez is basically a one-dimensional scorer. Neither of these guys are great defenders, and Lopez is actually pretty bad on that end. How far can we expect a team get with these two guys playing major minutes?

Moving past the starting lineup, which overall, I'd say is above average but not world-beating, we need to consider the bench. The Nets brought in Reggie Evans. Lots of hustle and moving parts, but just not a very good basketball player in total. MarShon Brooks (The "S" is for inefficient shooting or scoring, take your pick) appears to be J.J.'s primary backup at SG. C.J. Watson and Tyshawn Taylor will do their best to spell DWill, but that's a huge drop-off in talent. Backing up Gerald Wallace is...Jerry Stackhouse? Seriously, he's still playing. And then there's Mirza Teletovic, who might be good, but could be terrible for all we know.

Look, the bottom line here is that if there are any major injuries in the starting lineup, this team is in trouble. The starters are going to have to play big minutes if Brooklyn intends to compete with the other elite teams in the East. Maybe it will all work out.

What you, as a Brooklyn Nets fan, should be really, really freakin' nervous about is...what the hell happens if it doesn't work out? I'm not even talking about injuries. That happens. I mean, what if everyone is healthy, and the team just isn't that good, or maybe it's mediocre. Maybe this is a 40 or 45 win team. What do you do then? You've got a huge payroll with multiple expensive long-term contracts on guys that are not all that young. Good luck trading Joe Johnson a second time, you know?

I'm hoping for the best for this team and for Brooklyn. My mom is actually from Brooklyn. It's good people. But man, I can only imagine if things go south, they will go south in a hurry. And it will get ugly. But cool unis for sure! Definitely on my wish list.

No sweep 'til Brooklynnnnn.

Quick aside...Did you know the CDC was located in Atlanta specifically to deal with the epidemic of long 2's that has plagued the town for so many years? And you thought they had zombie problems!

Stephen Curry TOP10 in 2011-12 Season (via lance1229) This kid's pretty good. Gonna be lob city...

Evanz — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 05:22:21 -0000

Stephen Curry TOP10 in 2011-12 Season (via lance1229)

This kid's pretty good. Gonna be lob city Steph hooking up with Harrison Barnes. You heard it here first.