SB Nation User Blog: Ewdtrey

What I didn't know

Ewdtrey — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 07:19:25 -0000

I thought the Jaguars "waived" Jeremy Mincey because they thought that James Wyche outperformed him, something I totally disagreed with. Turns out he wasn't cut due to poor performance as I was lead to believe by many reports. It was because he was injured. So in essence we are now playing a 3-4 because we lost 2 DE's not just Hayward, if I might add, was a huge huge loss.

I hope Bryan Smith and Greg Peterson can bring something to the pass rush because otherwise we are gonna be in for a long season. I actually like our front 3, we just need some kind of rushing OLB that can get to the QB. 2 would be better. Seriously if we can't get to the qb with 5 and sometimes 6 rushers we can't blame the coaches or the secondary for not being able to stop the pass.

I know this is kind of an old subject now, but that trade idea for Aaron Kampman is starting to look like a better idea after our last performance.

Random thoughts

Ewdtrey — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 20:58:52 -0000

I think we just got another glimpse of the Emperor's powers. Apparently he can see the future. Gene Smith must have known that Fred Taylor was going to get hurt.

BTW, that was intended as a joke, and I hope Freddy T comes back sometime this season.(Even if it's just to play against us.)

As for a rookie/veteran controversy at the tackle position, I think we ought to keep in mind a couple of things:

One, the Tra Thomas we saw in the game was not the Tra Thomas we saw in the preseason. Tra was workmen-like during the preseason, but he didn't offer the upside that Eugene does. Tra held his blocks for about 3.7 seconds, but after that it's everyman for himself during the preseason. There was no mauling. There was no pancakes or knockdowns.

Second, we should keep in mind who the competition was. Monroe faced one of the roughest stretches any LT will usually ever face. Mario Williams? Calais Campbell? And probably worst of all, Dwight Freeney. And by the time Monroe faced Mario, he got pretty darn good. On the other hand, as I stated before the game, Kyle Vanden Bosch wasn't playing like himself.

Third, for all those that thought Tra should have been starting all along; Tra was hurt. In fact he was on the injury report this week, and he didn't even finish the Titans game. I believe Jordan Black did.

As for Britton, I think it's even more black and white there. He actually performed well against Robert Mathis, not giving up a sack to a guy that's produced 4.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles in the 3 games since.

Britton reason number two: Like Tra, Mo was playing an over the hill player in Javon Kearse. So it was easier to protect Garrard.

Third, playing Mo at RT meant not playing our best 5. The reason I say that is, Mo moving to RT meant we were weaker at the RG position. Now don't get me wrong, I really like Uche and I believe he has upside especially in the run game. But while he's still young and learning he's a little too mistake prone.

While I'm on the subject of the offensive line I have to give some props to Vince Manuwai. He was highly regarded by Vic as a great run blocker, but I was a little hard on him. And I still don't think he's that great a run blocker, and probably still not as powerful as Uche; but he has shown a new strength in pass blocking this year after his weight loss. You can really see his OT background.

I would like to give a new update about Meester, but he's just business as usual; which I guess is a good thing. If he's still around next year, he could be one of the best centers in the league left, and probably one of the most heady. Mawae is way over the hill now, and Saturday may not be back next year. Birk is playing lights out still and probably should be a probowler, although Mangold could be another good option.

Just thinking about this team's roster...Boy its going to be hard to have another draft as impactful as this years. And anyone we have to cut to add the new players is going to make me sad. We don't have a Jerry Porter that's easy to hate. On the other hand, we don't have a lot of Jerry Porters that will hurt us to cut do to the dead money they will leave us.

As for this week's breakout players: I think anyone that's good at breaking out of tackles will have a big day. The Seahawks are not exactly great tacklers.

David Garrard has more TD's, fewer INTS, and more yards per attempt than Tom Brady.

Last thought, the world is going to end. Brian Baldinger actually picked the Jaguars to win this week on NFL Playbook!!! Speaking of Playbook, everyone gave props to Dirk Koetter's play calling.

I'd like to use this post as a chance to let other people bring up random thoughts regarding the Jaguars.

Pass Interference

Ewdtrey — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 00:03:16 -0000

Pass Interference

In case anyone thought the offensive pass interference call in the Jaguars favor in the Texans game was just luck or a bad call.
(Go to time stamp 2:25)

I wasn't sure myself, from the first look given on TV; but looking at again I feel better about the win.

Who thinks we should....?

Ewdtrey — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 06:09:29 -0000

...try to trade for someone like Aaron Kampman? He hasn't gotten any sacks for his team yet, with that new defense. He also hasn't defended any passes. However for our team, he could change our whole defense, kind of like a Richard Seymour in Oakland. And because Kampman isn't performing well right now, we can get him cheaply, possibly, and we can get a whole upgraded defense. Not to mention we are about one injury from a total melt down on the DL and ipso facto, the rest of the defense and team.

I know he's older, but he's only 29 and his most recent off season experience with GB's 3-4 will help him to seamlessly integrate into our defense.

A Couple New Players

Ewdtrey — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 02:45:04 -0000

Via Adam Shefter: The Jaguars will sign 2 new players in Brian Russell a Safety formally of Seattle, and Kynan Forney a Guard formally of the San Diego.

I'm kind of surprised by the signings. Neither of them are going to the practice squad guys, as both are veterans at the age of 30 and 31.

Both of these guys look like veteran back ups to me that are much more smart players rather than talented players. But to be honest I've never really paid attention to either player to know much about them. However they were both good enough to be perennial starters for many years, and it appears both were fairly productive. And neither is so old that they will be considered over the hill per say, but I imagine no one will get super excited by the signings. I just wonder which player(As in one player) will be cut, being that we are already at 52 players.

Jeanna

Ewdtrey — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 01:55:17 -0000

Jeanna

I just thought if the rest of her predictions were right, kind of like the rest of her predictions about the roster, we could be in for an awesome. Keep a special ear out for what she starts saying at 2:40.

Young Receivers

Ewdtrey — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 08:37:19 -0000

Young Receivers

I just can't believe through this whole article the Jaguars were not mentioned once. What the heck??? Seriously, not one of our receivers have had more than 16 receptions for us. I'd say that's kind of saying that someone has to do it or no one will. I mean he couldn't even have gone wrong picking just anyone that made the team. O well. Have fun reading the article.

Groves and Ingram Key to the 3-4

Ewdtrey — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 20:53:31 -0000

Groves and Ingram Key to the 3-4

I thought I was the only thinking what JDR says in the article about making Ingram and Groves the outside guys. I also liked the idea of having Groves be the spinner. I wonder if we will see some bear fronts with him in the middle. He may be small, but he he is really stout going head up against a blocker. It's his lateral integrity where he struggles.

Defensive Tackle Availbility

Ewdtrey — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 07:08:28 -0000

After the resignation of James "Shack" Harris the Jacksonville community has been praising the moves and draft picks that Jaguars GM Gene Smith have made.

I think that everyone agrees that Shack could do almost nothing right in the first round, and the the rest of his drafts are debatable. It's been brought up that he was a draft-for-needs type of drafter. That he drafted too many skill position players on the offensive side of the ball, and that's why we have many of the holes we have in our lines.

I think it's obvious that we passed up too many offensive linemen in the years that Harris was here, but I think that we have that line rebuilt for the most part. On the defensive side I believe we are good at the DE position, even though there is plenty left to prove. Our biggest and main concern left is at the DT position.

I don't know why, but I had the urge to figure out how many players we passed up at DT since 2003. 2003 being the largest sample I could imagine that would leave us with players that could still have 4 likely pro bowl years left in them. Players like Jamal Williams, John Henderson, Stroud, and Haynesworth are not part of this list because they are not the future. They were drafted before 2003 and Shack didn't even have the option of drafting them anyhow.

So I came up with a list of players that are widely considered decently players or better at the position of 4-3 DT. I included a few 3-4 NT's that would fit well in a 4-3.

Year, Player name, was he avialble (Y or blank), where were they picked, If 'Y' who we picked instead

08 Jason Jones Y 2nd Derrick Harvey, Quentin Groves
08 Glenn Dorsey Not Avaible
08 Sedrick Ellis Not Avaible
07 Jay Alford Y 3rd RD Reggie Nelson, Justin Durant, Mike Walker
07 Brandon Mebane Y 3rd RD Nelson, Durant, Mike Walker
06 Haloti Ngata 12th Overall Not Available
06 Gabe Watson Y 4th RD Lewis, MJD, Ingram
06 Barry Coefield Y 4th Same as Watson
05 Mike Patterson Y 31st overall Matt Jones
05 Jay Ratliff Y 7th Everyone
04 Darnell Dockett Y 3rd RD R Williams, Greg Jones
04 Tommie Harris Y 14th overall Reggie Williams
04 Vince Wilfork Y 21st overall R Williams
04 Tank Johnson Y 2nd RD Reggie and Daryl Smith (Tank is not a great character guy either)
03 Kevin Williams Y Leftwich

Looking at this list we can see, first, that there aren't very many players worth high picks since 2003. There are only about 15 players listed. There are a few I probably missed, not many I'm sure. But there have been nearly 1800 other players drafted in that same time period. Statistically there's a very slim chance we wouldn't have a problem at the DT position right about now.

Second, there are hardly any players like John Henderson and Marcus Stroud at all. And none of them are at the level of Albert Haynesworth or Shaun Rodgers on a good day.

Third, in a few cases, I would have made our picks again.

I also think this list could be smaller if the 2008 picks don't pan out.

This is not an excuse for Shack, because he's made too many other mistakes. It's mearly an observation of how hard it is to be a GM and how rare a good DT is. Maybe we need to rethink DT as being higher on the list of premium positions.

What was supposed to be my Power Rankings

Ewdtrey — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 05:25:02 -0000

So while strolling around the net I came across some NFL power rankings, and in each case I would normally either see the Steelers, "(because they are the reigning super bowl champs)" or the Patriots, "(because Brady is back)" at the top of everyone's rankings.

As you can maybe guess by now, I never got to my power rankings.

I want to get to the point as to why people keep putting the Super Bowl champs at the top of their power rankings. I often, as a former physics major in college, compare teams to radioactive substances. Teams that aren't upgrading or adding are decaying. Injuries happen throughout the season and even the offseason. These injuries are similar to the randomness of radioactive decay. In either case though, there is a rate of decay. People don't stay young forever. Players get lost to free agency, injuries, and trades.

The moment the Steelers lost a super bowl contributor, they were not the same team anymore. They are not the team that won the SB. They are mostly a large collection of players that have won a SB. As soon as the next season starts they have to prove themselves like anyone else. They have the same record as the Detroit Lions.

Regardless, when making a ranking you are evaluating a team's roster. So I went back and looked at the Steeler's moves, and because the Steelers are big on player development I looked at their most recent drafts too.

In free agency they lost players like Nate Washington, Bryant McFadden, and Marvel Smith. And don’t underestimate their loss of Byron Leftwich. With someone like Big Ben you need a good backup to get you through a few games, or parts of games, that Ben will most likely miss playing behind that OL. One change in their overall record would have changed their playoff seed possibly making them the SB losers, assuming they even got that far.

Those losses are not back breakers, especially if they add in free agency, which they didn’t; or if they added a lot in the draft. They had the draft picks to replace their losses but did they improve themselves with their rookies? Their best rookie wide receiver, Mike Wallace, isn’t going to be as good as Nate Washington, at least not in his rookie year. Their top draft pick in Ziggy Hood, someone I liked in the draft, isn’t going to be better than Travis Kirschke or Aaron Smith, even though they are old and at the end of their career(35 and 33 respectively). There are other players I could discuss like Urbik and AQ Shipley, but the difference those picks could make this year is minimal. Urbik is very similar to players he will be replacing, and Shipley is at a position that takes time to learn.

So now looking back at their past drafts, you think, well those developing players should be coming around from the draft 2 or 3 years ago. Right?

2008 Draft Picks

Mendenhall is a bust IMO for where he was drafted. He’s not the outside runner that Parker is, and he’s not the inside runner that recently cut Gary Russell was or newly drafted Frank “The Tank” Summers is.

Limas Sweed is going to be another bust, with his inconsistent hands. I expect Wallace to take his roll eventually, just not next year.

Bruce Davis may be a good player eventually, but he won’t be better than Harrison or Woodley next year. I don’t think Davis even had 5 tackles all of last year.

2007 Draft

Most of these draft picks are not going to develop much more as they were huge contributors last season in lots of cases. And most of them weren’t drafted in places that take a lot of time to develop. I’m looking for something that wasn’t there last year that could help them next year.

I don’t think Woodley or Timmons will get much better. Spaeth has already shown what he can do in his backup role to Miller.

We have Cameron Stephenson, their 5th round draft pick.

Williams Gay is the reason McFadden is not back. He should help them this year.

As far as I'm concerned however one pick in Gay improving is not going to outweigh their losses.

I was going to go on to talk about the Patriots, but clearly I’ve already written too much. So I will stop at listing the old age of players they will rely on like a crutch this year.

Shawn Springs who had injuries last year is 34.

Joey Galloway who was injured for a large portion of last year is 37!

Teddy Bruschi 36, Stephen Neal 32, Kevin Faulk 33, Fred Taylor 33, Randy Moss 32, Adalius Thomas 32, Matt Light 31, Nick Kaczur 30, and Richard Seymour 30 (Among many others).

What did age do to our team last year? Yeah that’s right.

Also, I’ve blamed a lot of the sacks Cassel took on him, which he deserves for holding on to the ball so long in a lot of cases. But, Brady was taking a lot of those same hits after our playoff game in 2007. His OL was failing him.

The Patriots have a good chance of being a really good team, but they also have a good chance of being super busts. Just remember once again, we were SB favorites until our age caught up to us and abetted our bad luck with injuries that ravaged our proverbial Achilles heal.